UFORE Overview and Process. What is UFORE? Science-based computer model that quantifies urban forest structure, functions, and values Collection of analysis.

UFORE

Overview and Process

What is UFORE?Science-based computer model that

quantifies urban forest structure, functions, and values

Collection of analysis toolsMore at www.ufore.orgSpecialized analysis for urban ecosystems

Overview & Process I

Overview & Process Ecosystem“Functional units of interacting abiotic, biotic, and

cultural (anthropogenic) components”Includes all trees

Public/privateNative/exotic/”utopian”

No management of individuals, but we can and--many believe--must manage the population

Population contributes to common good at much reduced cost/benefit ratio than street trees

Status of UFOREFully operational as program

Over 10 years in developmentFS Syracuse: running in SAS code

Direction: David Nowak, Project Leader Programmer: Dan Crane

Being converted to desktop app (Windows) Conversion work occupy next few years

Major advance for i-TreeUFORE shell: makes projects much easier

Overview & Process

CalculatesStructure, e.g.

Leaf area and biomassSpecies and DBH distribution

Function, e.g.VOC emissions Pollution removal Effect on building energy useTotal carbon stored

Value based on structure, function

Overview & Process

1 metric ton (“tonne”) = 1.10231131 US (short) ton

Sounds like STRATUM…SimilaritiesSimilar questions

Structure, function, value Implications for management

Similar goals

DifferencesDifferent populations

STRATUM: street trees UFORE: whole ecosystem

Some differences in methods, often b/c of differing populations

Overview & Process

What good is it?Aid planning and managementImprove forest designsProject future impactsAssess impact of catastrophic events Justify programs

Source: http://www.houstonregionalforest.org/Report/

Overview & Process

How does it work?Uses field data to calculate structureUses structure data to calculate functionUses function data to calculate valueUses value data to draw conclusions and

make recommendations

The Devil lurks, as always, in the details

Does this help? (Not!)

3 questions

Ask when evaluating models:Do I understand the numbers?Can I trust the numbers?Can I use the numbers?

I want to drill down one level in an effort to answer these questions, “peek under the hood”

Overview & Process VI

Let’s examine one relatively *simple* set of calculations: CARBON

Start with allometric¹ equations estimating above-ground biomass from species and DBH ¹ = relation of the growth of a part of an organism to

the growth of the whole

Convert with species-specific factor:

above-ground biomass whole tree biomass

http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/ncas/reports/pubs/tr05afinal.pdf

Regression of DBH as predictor of biomass

Overview & Process VIAdjustments 80% less biomass for open-grown urban

trees than computedBased on field measurements of 30 urban trees

in ChicagoNowak 1994 publication (Chicago study)

How much of biomass is carbon?Stored C biomass x 0.5

Chow and Rolfe 1989, et al

http://tell.fll.purdue.edu/JapanProj/FLClipart/Adjectives/heavy.gif

Is this too MUCH??!!

Overview & Process VIUse growth and mortality rates for annualStart with published and/or field data for each

species and DBH classAdjust growth (C storage) for

Site (e.g., park 1.78 times less growth than street) Growing season length Condition of tree

Adjust mortality (C release) for % of condition class Rapid release (above ground, populated areas) Slow release (below ground, unpopulated areas)

Growth - Mortality net annual C storage

Overview & Process VIValueMultiply net annual stored C by $20.30/tC

Based on the estimated marginal social costs of carbon dioxide emissions (Fankhauser, 1994).

Stochastic model treats uncertainties in global warming research/debate as random variables.

Provides a distribution of outcomes from which means can be calculated.

This dollar amount was projection for 2000.

“Rough order-of-magnitude assessment”

http://coreacademy.usu.edu/04_Materials/Clip_Art/

What’s the point?!We can begin to understand and therefore trust the numbers

Because of that, we can use the numbersAdvocacy Strategic planningAction

UFORE, like STRATUM, is a powerful tool for promoting sustainable management of urban forest resource.

Are me?