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UCO Bank Result Updated

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  • 7/31/2019 UCO Bank Result Updated

    1/11

    Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

    Particulars (` cr) 4QFY12 3QFY12 % chg (qoq) 4QFY12 % chg (yoy)NII 1,051 1,033 1.7 844 24.4Pre-prov. profit 728 761 (4.3) 580 25.6

    PAT 253 333 (24.0) 226 11.9Source: Company, Angel Research

    For 4QFY2012, UCO Bank reported an 11.9% yoy increase (down 24.0%

    qoq) in its net profit to `253cr, which was below our estimates, mostly due to

    lower non-interest income and higher provisioning expenses than estimated

    by us. We maintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock.Asset quality deteriorates during 4QFY2012: For FY2012, the banks advancesgrew by reasonably healthy 16.6% yoy (up 9.1% qoq); however, the banks

    deposits growth was low at 6.0% yoy (up 7.6% qoq). CA deposit accretion picked

    up during 4QFY2012 with 24.2% qoq growth (up 4.4% yoy); however, savings

    accounts growth was moderate at 2.0% qoq (up 8.1% yoy). Reported CASA ratio

    on a qoq basis remained stable at 22.0%. Reported NIM of the bank declined by

    18bp qoq, as higher cost of funding bulk deposits increased cost pressures, while

    interest reversals led to lower yield on advances. During 4QFY2012, fee income

    increased by 10.4% qoq, primarily due to a sharp rise in recoveries from written-

    off accounts. Slippages for the bank spiked up sharply during 4QFY2012 to

    `841cr (slippage ratio of 3.4%). The banks PCR improved qoq by 317bp to54.4%, although it remains one of the lowest in the industry.

    Outlook and valuation: Structurally, the bank has had a relatively high exposureto large corporates, low CASA of ~22% and low fee income. Going forward, we

    expect the banks earnings to find support from its increasing exposure to the SME

    and retail segments (gold loans etc.), improving other income and moderating

    asset-quality pressures, aided by increasing recoveries. However, at the CMP, the

    stock is trading at 0.7x FY2013E ABV, which we believe factors in the

    improvement expected in earnings quality. Also, lower provisioning coverage ratio

    (higher provisioning burden as the bank moves to 70%) and low core tier-I capital

    (slower credit growth to accord with Basel-3 norms) are a further overhang.Hence, we maintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock. Key financials

    Y/E March (` cr) FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014ENII 3,845 3,902 4,595 5,205% chg 65.4 1.5 17.7 13.3

    Net profit 907 1,109 1,302 1,363% chg (10.4) 22.3 17.5 4.7

    NIM (%) 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.4

    EPS (`) 12.6 14.0 16.9 17.9P/E (x) 5.4 4.8 4.0 3.8

    P/ABV (x) 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7

    RoA (%) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6

    RoE (%) 20.7 16.2 16.5 15.4

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    NEUTRALCMP `68

    Target Price -

    Investment Period -

    Stock Info

    Sector Banking

    Market Cap (` cr) 4,242

    Beta 1.3

    52 Week High / Low 102/45

    Avg. Daily Volume 459,182

    Face Value (`) 10BSE Sensex 16,293

    Nifty 4,929

    Reuters Code UCBK.BO

    Bloomberg Code UCO@IN

    Shareholding Pattern (%)

    Promoters 65.2

    MF / Banks / Indian Fls 14.7

    FII / NRIs / OCBs 3.8

    Indian Public / Others 16.3

    Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

    Sensex (8.2) (12.3) 39.5

    UCO Bank (14.2) (32.4) 101.2

    Vaibhav Agrawal022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808

    [email protected]

    Varun Varma022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847

    [email protected]

    Sourabh Taparia022 3935 7800 Ext: 6872

    [email protected]

    UCO BankPerformance Highlights

    4QFY2012 Result Update | Banking

    May 11, 2012

  • 7/31/2019 UCO Bank Result Updated

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    Uco Bank | 4QFY2012 Result Update

    May 11, 2012 2

    Exhibit 1:4QFY2012 performanceParticulars (` cr) 4QFY12 3QFY12 % chg (qoq) 4QFY11 % chg (yoy)Interest earned 3,965 3,738 6.1 3,068 29.2- on Advances / Bills 3,106 2,893 7.4 2,298 35.2- on investments 820 824 (0.5) 728 12.7

    - on balance with RBI & others 16 16 (1.7) 20 (19.8)

    - on others 24 6 310.0 24 (0.7)

    Interest Expended 2,914 2,706 7.7 2,224 31.0Net Interest Income 1,051 1,033 1.7 844 24.4Other income 252 235 7.1 292 (13.7)Other income excl. treasury 219 198 10.4 265 (17.4)

    Operating income 1,303 1,268 2.7 1,136 14.6Operating expenses 574 507 13.3 556 3.2- Employee expenses 369 348 5.9 381 (3.2)

    - Other Opex 206 159 29.6 175 17.3

    Pre-provision Profit 728 761 (4.3) 580 25.6Provisions & Contingencies 456 420 8.5 341 33.8- Provisions for NPAs 379 133 184.8 94 304.5

    - Other Provisions 77 287 (73.1) 247 NA

    PBT 272 341 (20.1) 239 13.8Provision for Tax 19 8 140.5 13 45.2PAT 253 333 (24.0) 226 11.9Effective Tax Rate (%) 7.1 2.3 471bp 5.5 153bp

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 2:4QFY2012 Actual vs. estimatesParticulars (` cr) Actual Estimates Var. (%)Net interest income 1,051 1,074 (2.2)

    Other income 252 297 (15.1)

    Operating income 1,303 1,370 (4.9)Operating expenses 574 554 3.7

    Pre-prov. profit 728 816 (10.8)Provisions & cont. 456 400 14.0

    PBT 272 416 (34.7)

    Prov. for taxes 19 75 (74.3)

    PAT 253 342 (26.0)Source: Company, Angel Research

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    Uco Bank | 4QFY2012 Result Update

    May 11, 2012 3

    Exhibit 3:4QFY2012 performance analysisParticulars 4QFY12 3QFY12 % chg (qoq) 4QFY11 % chg (yoy)Advances (`cr) 115,540 105,919 9.1 99,071 16.6

    Deposits (`

    cr) 154,003 143,108 7.6 145,278 6.0Credit-to-Deposit Ratio (%) 75.0 74.0 101bp 68.2 683bp

    Current deposits (`cr) 7,685 6,190 24.2 7,360 4.4

    Saving deposits (`cr) 26,267 25,741 2.0 24,308 8.1

    CASA deposits (`cr) 33,952 31,931 6.3 31,668 7.2

    CASA ratio (%) 22.0 22.3 (27)bp 21.8 25bp

    CAR (%) 12.4 12.3 2bp 13.8 (145)bp

    Tier 1 CAR (%) 8.1 7.8 30bp 8.6 (52)bp

    Profitability Ratios (%)Reported NIM 2.7 2.9 (18)bp 2.4 36bp

    Cost-to-income ratio 44.1 40.0 411bp 43.3 77bp

    Asset qualityGross NPAs (` cr) 4,086 3,696 10.6 3,150 29.7

    Gross NPAs (%) 3.5 3.5 (1)bp 3.1 35bp

    Net NPAs (`cr) 2,264 2,131 6.2 1,825 24.1

    Net NPAs (%) 2.0 2.0 (8)bp 1.8 12bp

    Provision Coverage Ratio (%) 54.4 51.2 317bp 51.6 279bp

    Slippage ratio (%) 3.4 2.2 123bp 5.7 (229)bp

    Credit cost (%) 0.9 0.3 54bp 0.2 63bp

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Advances growth healthy; NIM declines sequentially

    For FY2012, the banks advances grew by reasonably healthy 16.6% yoy (up 9.1%

    qoq), but the banks deposit growth was moderately low at 6.0% yoy (up 7.6%

    qoq).

    Strong growth in advances on a qoq basis was primarily due to aggressive lending

    though LC discounting (~`5,000cr added during last the 3-4 months) and

    introduction of gold loan portfolio (`1,000cr build from scratch mostly over the last

    quarter as per the management). On the deposits front, management cited lower

    yearly growth as a strategy to reduce the banks dependence on bulk deposits.

    Current account deposit accretion picked up during 4QFY2012, with 24.2% qoqgrowth (up 4.4% yoy), but savings accounts growth was moderate at 2.0% qoq (up

    8.1% yoy). Reported CASA ratio on a qoq basis remained stable at 22.0%.

    Reported NIM of the bank declined by 18bp qoq during the quarter. The bank has

    a high dependence on bulk deposits for its funding, which led to higher cost of

    borrowing for the bank during the quarter. Also, higher slippages during the

    quarter led to interest reversal, which resulted in lower sequential yield on

    advances for the bank.

    Management has guided for advances growth in-line with RBIs projections of

    16-17% for FY2013.

  • 7/31/2019 UCO Bank Result Updated

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    Uco Bank | 4QFY2012 Result Update

    May 11, 2012 4

    Exhibit 4:Healthy growth in loan book in 4QFY2012

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 5:YoY trend in business

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 6:YoA (calc.) down sequentially

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 7:NIM declines sequentially

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Higher recoveries led to healthy qoq growth in non-interest

    income

    During 4QFY2012, fee income increased by 10.4% qoq, primarily due to a sharp

    rise in recoveries from written-off accounts (`42cr in 4QFY2012 compared to

    `12cr in 3QFY2012). Growth in CEB income was, however, muted sequentially at

    1.6% qoq, as the banks income through underwriting and syndication was lower

    on account of slower corporate activities.

    On an annual basis, fee income performance was weak, declining by 7.7%

    compared to FY2011. We have factored in fee income growth of 17.3% for both

    FY2013 and FY2014.

    Slippages jump up; Restructuring pipeline heavy

    The banks asset quality deteriorated during 4QFY2012, with gross and net NPA

    levels increasing by 10.6% and 6.2% sequentially, respectively. The banks

    slippages spiked up sharply during 4QFY2012 to `841cr (annualized slippage

    ratio of 3.4%). The banks PCR improved qoq by 317bp to 54.4%, but it remainsone of the lowest in the industry.

    10.7

    (3.0

    )

    (0.6

    )

    10.9

    9.

    1

    20.3

    (12.2

    )

    3.

    0

    9.

    0

    7.

    6

    68.2

    75.372.8

    74.0 75.0

    60.0

    64.0

    68.0

    72.0

    76.0

    80.0

    (20.0)

    (10.0)

    -

    10.0

    20.0

    30.0

    4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12

    Adv. qoq chg (%) Dep. qoq chg (%) CDR (%, RHS)

    18.8

    17.5

    12.4

    18.4

    16.6

    18.7

    7.3

    8.5

    18.5

    6.0

    -

    5.0

    10.0

    15.0

    20.0

    4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12

    Adv. yoy chg (%) Dep. yoy chg (%)

    9.75

    10.78

    11.50 11.4911.22

    8.50

    9.00

    9.50

    10.00

    10.50

    11.00

    11.50

    12.00

    4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12

    2.352.46

    2.84 2.89

    2.71

    1.50

    1.90

    2.30

    2.70

    3.10

    4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12

  • 7/31/2019 UCO Bank Result Updated

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    Uco Bank | 4QFY2012 Result Update

    May 11, 2012 5

    The bank restructured accounts amounting to ~`1,000cr during FY2012, of

    which restructuring in 4QFY2012 contributed only ~`200cr for the bank

    (much lesser than what other PSU banks have witnessed). However, the

    pipeline looks heavy currently, with Air India (~`

    1,000cr) and couple of SEBs(total SEB exposure at `5,000cr-`6,000cr) expected to restructure in the

    coming few quarters (Air India from 1QFY2013).

    Exhibit 8:Slippage ratio spikes up in 4QFY2012

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 9:NPA levels high for UCO Bank

    Source: Company, Angel Research; note*excluding technical write-offs

    Exhibit 10:59 branches opened during 4QFY2012

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 11:Opex and cost-to-income ratio trends

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    5.7

    2.1 2.1 2.2

    3.4

    0.2

    -

    0.7

    0.3

    0.9

    -

    0.2

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1.0

    -

    1.5

    3.0

    4.5

    6.0

    4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12

    Slippages (%) Credit cost (%, RHS)

    3.1

    3.5

    3.6

    3.5

    3.5

    1.8

    2.2

    2.1

    2.0

    2.0

    -

    0.4

    0.8

    1.2

    1.6

    2.0

    2.4

    2.8

    3.2

    4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12

    Gross NPAs (%) Net NPAs (%)

    2,2

    02

    2,2

    09

    2,2

    31

    2,2

    60

    2,3

    19

    2,100

    2,150

    2,200

    2,250

    2,300

    2,350

    4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12

    Branches

    49.

    0

    43.

    6

    41.

    4

    40.

    0

    44.

    1

    1.46

    1.23

    1.35

    1.27

    1.33

    1.10

    1.20

    1.30

    1.40

    1.50

    30.0

    35.0

    40.0

    45.0

    50.0

    4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12

    Cost-to-income ratio (%) Opex to average assets (%, RHS)

  • 7/31/2019 UCO Bank Result Updated

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    Uco Bank | 4QFY2012 Result Update

    May 11, 2012 6

    Investment arguments

    Improvement in core profitability

    The bank had relatively lower NIM of 1.9% in FY2010 due to low CASA ratio of

    ~22% and high exposure to relatively low-yielding corporate loans, which

    constituted 65% of its total loan book. While reported NIM has risen to 2.8% in

    FY2012 due to a decline in cost of wholesale deposits, going forward, an increase

    in retail and SME loans and introduction of gold loan portfolio are expected to

    lead to sustainable NIMs for the bank, going ahead.

    Improvement in operating environment to lower credit cost

    The banks gross and net NPAs stood at 3.5% and 2.0%, respectively, in

    4QFY2012, with outstanding restructured advances at `7,300cr as of 4QFY2012.

    Although the restructuring pipeline looks heavy, it is expected to be mostly fromstate-owned entities, which should only lead to marginal NPV hit (only in case of

    Air India). Also, going forward, we expect stronger recoveries and lower slippages,

    which are expected to result in a decline in provisioning expenses, as a percentage

    of average assets, to 0.8% for FY2013 from 1.0% in FY2012.

    Outlook and valuation

    Structurally, the bank has had a relatively high exposure to large corporates, low

    CASA of ~22% and low fee income. Going forward, we expect the banks

    earnings to find support from its increasing exposure to the SME and retail

    segments (gold loans etc.), improving other income and moderating asset-qualitypressures, aided by increasing recoveries. However, at the CMP, the stock is

    trading at 0.7x FY2013E ABV, which we believe factors in the improvement

    expected in earnings quality.

    Also, lower provisioning coverage ratio (higher provisioning burden as the bank

    moves to 70%) and low core tier-I capital (slower credit growth to accord with

    Basel-3 norms) are a further overhang. Hence, we maintain our Neutralrecommendation on the stock.

  • 7/31/2019 UCO Bank Result Updated

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    Uco Bank | 4QFY2012 Result Update

    May 11, 2012 7

    Exhibit 12:Key assumptionsParticulars (%) Earlier estimates Revised estimatesFY2013 FY2014 FY2013 FY2014Credit growth 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0Deposit growth 16.0 15.0 16.0 15.0

    CASA ratio 21.1 20.7 21.1 20.7

    NIMs 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4

    Other income growth 6.6 14.3 6.6 14.3

    Growth in staff expenses 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0

    Growth in other expenses 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0

    Slippages 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.3

    Coverage ratio 56.0 57.0 56.0 57.0

    Source: Angel Research

    Exhibit 13:Change in estimatesParticulars (` cr)

    FY2013 FY2014Earlierestimates Revisedestimates Var. (%) Earlierestimates Revisedestimates Var. (%)

    NII 4,634 4,595 (0.9) 5,196 5,205 0.2

    Non-interest income 1,092 1,029 (5.8) 1,247 1,176 (5.7)

    Operating income 5,727 5,623 (1.8) 6,443 6,380 (1.0)Operating expenses 2,341 2,365 1.0 2,692 2,719 1.0

    Pre-prov. profit 3,385 3,259 (3.7) 3,751 3,661 (2.4)Provisions & cont. 1,580 1,522 (3.6) 1,655 1,643 (0.7)

    PBT 1,806 1,736 (3.8) 2,096 2,018 (3.7)

    Prov. for taxes 451 434 (3.8) 680 655 (3.7)

    PAT 1,354 1,302 (3.8) 1,416 1,363 (3.7)Source: Angel Research

    Exhibit 14:P/ABV band

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    160

    180

    200

    Mar-04

    Sep-0

    4

    Mar-05

    Sep-0

    5

    Mar-06

    Sep-0

    6

    Mar-07

    Sep-0

    7

    Mar-08

    Sep-0

    8

    Mar-09

    Sep-0

    9

    Mar-10

    Sep-1

    0

    Mar-11

    Sep-1

    1

    Mar-12

    Sep-1

    2

    Mar-13

    Price (`) 0.5x 0.8x 1.1x 1.4x 1.7x

  • 7/31/2019 UCO Bank Result Updated

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    Uco Bank | 4QFY2012 Result Update

    May 11, 2012 8

    Exhibit 15:Recommendation summaryCompany Reco. CMP(`) Tgt. price(`) Upside(%) FY2014EP/ABV (x) FY2014ETgt P/ABV (x) FY2014EP/E (x) FY2012-14EEPS CAGR (%) FY2014ERoA (%) FY2014ERoE (%)AxisBk Buy 1,001 1,587 58.5 1.4 2.2 7.2 16.4 1.5 20.3

    FedBk Neutral 415 - 0.6 - - 7.3 13.0 1.3 14.5

    HDFCBk Accumulate 511 567 10.9 2.9 3.3 14.4 27.0 1.7 22.1

    ICICIBk* Buy 813 1,201 47.8 1.3 1.9 10.0 20.4 1.5 16.0

    SIB Neutral 22 - 2.2 - - 5.8 4.5 0.8 17.5

    YesBk Buy 329 470 42.6 1.7 2.4 7.9 22.5 1.4 23.3

    AllBk Accumulate 148 166 12.3 0.6 0.7 3.5 6.2 0.9 17.6

    AndhBk Neutral 105 - - 0.6 - 4.1 3.3 0.9 16.0

    BOB Buy 649 925 42.6 0.7 1.1 4.3 11.1 1.1 18.2

    BOI Buy 353 411 16.3 0.7 1.0 4.5 23.3 0.8 16.9

    BOM Accumulate 48 55 14.5 0.6 0.7 3.7 45.3 0.7 17.2

    CanBk Buy 419 522 24.6 0.7 0.9 4.5 11.8 0.9 16.4CentBk Neutral 78 - - 0.7 - 3.9 45.7 0.5 13.8

    CorpBk Buy 405 504 24.4 0.5 0.7 3.6 5.3 0.8 16.5

    DenaBk Buy 85 114 34.3 0.5 0.7 3.3 6.2 0.9 16.9

    IDBI# Buy 92 117 27.0 0.6 0.7 3.8 22.7 0.9 14.8

    IndBk Buy 180 233 29.7 0.6 0.8 3.7 5.4 1.2 18.2

    IOB Buy 82 101 23.9 0.5 0.6 3.8 28.3 0.6 13.9

    J&KBk Accumulate 846 932 10.2 0.7 0.8 4.3 8.8 1.4 18.6

    OBC Buy 219 274 25.1 0.5 0.6 3.4 27.7 0.8 14.3

    PNB Buy 746 1,117 49.8 0.7 1.1 4.3 10.3 1.0 18.1

    SBI* Buy 1,852 2,511 35.6 1.2 1.6 6.9 23.6 1.0 19.1

    SynBk Buy 91 128 41.3 0.5 0.8 3.3 8.7 0.8 17.1

    UcoBk Neutral 68 - - 0.7 - 3.8 13.0 0.6 15.4UnionBk Buy 206 276 34.3 0.7 0.9 4.1 24.8 0.8 17.5

    UtdBk Buy 58 78 33.6 0.4 0.6 2.6 22.5 0.7 16.5

    VijBk Neutral 53 - - 0.6 - 4.3 13.5 0.5 13.7

    Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), #Without adjusting for SASF

  • 7/31/2019 UCO Bank Result Updated

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    Uco Bank | 4QFY2012 Result Update

    May 11, 2012 9

    Income statement

    Y/E March (` cr) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14ENet Interest Income 1,645 2,324 3,845 3,902 4,595 5,205- YoY Growth (%) 10.5 41.3 65.4 1.5 17.7 13.3Other Income 1,020 966 925 966 1,029 1,176- YoY Growth (%) 32.1 (5.3) (4.2) 4.3 6.6 14.3

    Operating Income 2,665 3,290 4,770 4,868 5,623 6,380- YoY Growth (%) 17.9 23.5 45.0 2.0 15.5 13.5

    Operating Expenses 1,613 1,718 2,075 2,056 2,365 2,719- YoY Growth (%) 23.5 6.5 20.8 (0.9) 15.0 15.0

    Pre - Provision Profit 1,052 1,572 2,695 2,811 3,259 3,661- YoY Growth (%) 10.2 49.4 71.5 4.3 15.9 12.3

    Prov. & Cont. 488 600 1,781 1,661 1,522 1,643- YoY Growth (%) (15.2) 23.1 196.8 (6.7) (8.4) 7.9

    Profit Before Tax 564 972 914 1,150 1,736 2,018- YoY Growth (%) 48.9 72.3 (5.9) 25.8 51.0 16.2

    Prov. for Taxation 6 (41) 8 42 434 655- as a % of PBT 1.1 (4.2) 0.8 3.6 25.0 32.4

    PAT 558 1,012 907 1,109 1,302 1,363- YoY Growth (%) 35.3 81.5 (10.4) 22.3 17.5 4.7

    Balance sheetY/E March (` cr) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14EShare Capital 1,249 1,699 2,451 2,488 2,488 2,488- Equity 549 549 628 665 665 665

    - Preference 700 1,150 1,823 1,823 1,823 1,823

    Reserve & Surplus 2,708 3,511 4,969 6,126 7,016 7,971

    Deposits 100,222 122,416 145,278 154,003 178,644 205,441

    - Growth (%) 25.4 22.1 18.7 6.0 16.0 15.0

    Borrowings 2,062 1,889 1,100 2,256 2,608 2,980

    Tier 2 Capital 3,075 4,375 4,375 10,645 12,242 13,160

    Other Liab. & Prov. 2,348 3,430 5,227 4,980 5,647 6,370

    Total Liabilities 111,664 137,319 163,398 180,498 208,645 238,410Cash Balances 6,589 7,243 10,404 7,812 7,146 8,218

    Bank Balances 4,265 862 6,576 5,792 6,695 7,651

    Investments 29,385 43,521 42,927 45,771 55,506 62,428

    Advances 68,804 82,505 99,071 115,540 132,871 152,802

    - Growth (%) 24.9 19.9 20.1 16.6 15.0 15.0

    Fixed Assets 719 710 739 802 899 996

    Other Assets 1,903 2,479 3,681 4,782 5,527 6,316

    Total Assets 111,664 137,319 163,398 180,498 208,645 238,410- Growth (%) 24.4 23.0 19.0 10.5 15.6 14.3

  • 7/31/2019 UCO Bank Result Updated

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    Uco Bank | 4QFY2012 Result Update

    May 11, 2012 10

    Ratio analysis

    Y/E March FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14EProfitability ratios (%)NIMs 1.7 1.9 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.4Cost to Income Ratio 60.5 52.2 43.5 42.2 42.1 42.6

    RoA 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6

    RoE 21.1 31.6 20.7 16.2 16.5 15.4

    B/S ratios (%)CASA Ratio 24.1 24.7 22.0 22.1 21.1 20.7

    Credit/Deposit Ratio 68.7 67.4 68.2 75.0 74.4 74.4

    CAR 11.9 13.2 13.8 21.1 20.7 19.7

    - Tier I 6.5 7.1 8.6 9.4 9.0 8.6

    Asset Quality (%)Gross NPAs 2.2 2.0 3.1 3.5 4.1 4.6

    Net NPAs 1.2 1.2 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2

    Slippages 1.2 1.6 3.3 2.4 2.4 2.3

    Loan Loss Prov. /Avg. Assets 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.4

    Provision Coverage 47.2 50.0 50.4 54.4 56.0 57.0

    Per Share Data (`)EPS 10.2 18.4 12.6 14.0 16.9 17.9

    ABVPS (75% cover.) 43.1 56.8 67.2 80.0 90.6 101.7

    DPS 1.1 2.3 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0

    Valuation RatiosPER (x) 6.7 3.7 5.4 4.8 4.0 3.8

    P/ABVPS (x) 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7

    Dividend Yield 1.6 3.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4

    DuPont AnalysisNII 1.6 1.9 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.3

    (-) Prov. Exp. 0.5 0.5 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7

    Adj. NII 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.6

    Treasury 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

    Int. Sens. Inc. 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.6

    Other Inc. 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5

    Op. Inc. 2.2 2.2 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.1

    Opex 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2PBT 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9

    Taxes 0.0 (0.0) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3

    RoA 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6Leverage 38.2 38.9 34.3 29.9 28.7 29.0

    RoE * 21.1 31.6 20.7 16.2 16.5 15.4Note: * RoE calculated on PAT for equity share holders post preference dividend

  • 7/31/2019 UCO Bank Result Updated

    11/11

    Uco Bank | 4QFY2012 Result Update

    May 11, 2012 11

    Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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    Disclosure of Interest Statement UCO Bank

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