U N I V E R S I T Y O F MARYLAND - ECON l Department ...econweb.umd.edu/~support/candidates2010.pdfCollege Park, Maryland 20742-7211 301.405.3266 TEL 301.405.3542 FAX Department of

Maureen CropperPlacement [email protected]

Pablo D'ErasmoPlacement [email protected]

Terry DavisPlacement [email protected]

Name/Address/Phone(click name for CV)

Fields of Interest Job Market Paper Title References

Abo-Zaid, Salem4304 Sheridan StreetUniversity Park, MD20782240-501-7843

Primary:Monetary EconomicsMacroeconomics

Secondary:International Economics,Computational Economics

Optimal Long-RunInflation withOccasionally-BindingFinancial Constraints

Chugh, Sanjay (Chair)Shea, JohnMendoza, Enrique

Alpert, Abby4315 Rowalt Dr., Apt.202College Park, MD 20740310-560-6113

Primary:Health EconomicsPublic Economics

Secondary:Labor EconomicsApplied Econometrics

The Anticipatory Effectsof Medicare Part D onDrug Utilization

Duggan, Mark(Co-Chair)Hellerstein, Judith(Co-Chair)Guiteras, Raymond

Baranov, Oleg6210 Belcrest Road,Apt. 1317Hyattsville, MD 20782240-350-2490

Primary:Auction TheoryMicroeconomicsComputational Economics

Secondary:Industrial OrganizationEconometrics

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Ausubel, Lawrence(Chair)Cramton, PeterRust, John

Bianchi, Javier3402 Tulane Dr., Apt. 23Hyattsville, MD 20783240-476-2709

Primary:International FinanceMacroeconomics

Secondary:Monetary EconomicsComputational Economics

Overborrowing andSystemic Externalities inthe Business Cycle

Mendoza,Enrique(Chair)Korinek, AntonVégh, Carlos

Bonilla, Juan D.4331 Rowalt Dr., Apt.302College Park, MD 20740301-263-4897

Primary:Labor Economics

Secondary:Public Economics

Contracting out PublicSchools for AcademicAchievement: Evidencefrom Colombia

Hellerstein, Judith(Chair)Schwab, RobertKearney, Melissa

CENTER ON POPULATION, GENDER, AND SOCIAL INEQUALITY

MARYLANDMARYLANDU N I V E R S I T Y U N I V E R S I T Y O FO F

CENTER ON POPULATION, GENDER, AND SOCIAL INEQUALITY



3105 Tydings Hall College Park, Maryland 20742-7211

301.405.3266 TEL 301.405.3542 FAX Department of Economics

EconometricsDouoguih, Kahwa C.11263 Center HarborRoadReston, VA 20194202-390-4267

Primary:Development Economics,Experimental Economics,Industrial Organization

Secondary:Economics of NaturalResources,Institutional Economics

Do Taxpayers Use CharityDonations to KeepAuditors at Bay? Theoryand Experiment

Cropper, Maureen(Co-Chair)Ozbay, Erkut(Co-Chair)Filiz-Ozbay, Emel

Gonzalez-Velosa,Carolina4331 Rowalt Drive,Apt.302College Park, MD 20740301-263-4901

Primary:Development EconomicsLabor Economics

Secondary:Applied Microeconomics

The Effects ofInternational Migrationand Remittances onAgriculture: Evidencefrom the Philippines

Lafortune, Jeanne(Chair)Hellerstein, JudithCropper, Maureen

Handley, Kyle7923 Eastern Ave., #803Silver Spring, MD 20910301-648-3018

Primary:International Trade

Secondary:EconometricsMacroeconomicsEconomic Geography

Entry and Exit UnderTrade Policy Uncertainty:Theory and Evidence

Limão, Nuno (Chair)Haltiwanger, JohnShea, John

Hernaiz, Daniel7025 Strathmore Street,Apt. 4Bethesda, MD 20815301-787-0470

Primary:Macroeconomics

Secondary:International Finance

A Monetary Model withPrice Promotions

Aruoba, Boragan(Co-Chair)Shea, John (Co-Chair)Chugh, SanjayVégh, Carlos

Hitaj, Ermal8201 16th St., Apt. 1203Silver Spring, MD 20910240-755-2145

Primary:Transition EconomicsBehavioral Economics

Secondary:Economics of InstitutionsPolitical Economy

Aspirations and LifeSatisfaction in Transition:How Wanting MoreIncreases Happiness

Mu��ell, Peter(Co-Chair)Prucha, Ingmar(Co-Chair)Sy, Amadou

Iercosan, Diana A.3105 Tydings HallCollege Park, MD 20742202-215-1675

Primary:EconometricsEmpirical IndustrialOrganization

Secondary:EmpiricalMicroeconomicsEmpirical Finance

A Model of InterrelatedPatent Renewals

Prucha, Ingmar(Chair)Kelejian, HarryRust, John

Johnson, Terence R.1436 W. St. NW, Apt.304Washington, DC 20009

Primary:MicroeconomicsMarket DesignAuction Theory

Matching ThroughPosition Auctions

Ausubel, Lawrence(Co-Chair)Vincent, Daniel(Co-Chair)

202-379-6777Secondary:Industrial OrganizationComputational Economics

Cramton, Peter

Joo, Hyunsoo7104 Swansong WayBethesda, MD 20817240-678-2299

Primary:International Finance

Secondary:MacroeconomicsEconometrics

Response of Country RiskPremium with SegmentedAsset Markets

Végh, Carlos (Chair)Korinek, AntonD'Erasmo, Pablo

Komatsuzaki, Takuji1961 Seminary PlaceSilver Spring, MD 20910301-706-1707


Secondary:Economic Growth

Sudden Stops andExternal Balance SheetManagement in EmergingMarkets

Korinek, Anton(Co-Chair)Végh, Carlos(Co-Chair)D'Erasmo, Pablo

Lara Ibarra, Gabriel3105 Tydings HallCollege Park, MD 20742301-613-5614

Primary:Public EconomicsLabor Economics

Secondary:Applied MicroeconomicsBehavioral Economics

Pension Reforms and theIncentives to Save:Lessons from Mexico

Kearney, Melissa(Chair)Duggan, MarkHellerstein, Judith

Li, Xue4307 Rowalt Drive,Apt. 103College Park, MD 20740301-222-7615

Primary:Demographic EconomicsPublic Finance

Secondary:Development EconomicsLabor Economics

Why is the Sex RatioUnbalanced in China?The Role of the One-ChildPolicy, UnderdevelopedSocial Insurance andParental Expectations

Rust, John (Chair)Jin, GingerD'Erasmo, Pablo

Orfei, Alessandro2445 Lyttonsville Rd.,Apt. 917Silver Spring, MD 20910202-258-0336

Primary:Development Economics

Secondary:Economics of Institutions,Political Economy

The Impact of FemaleEmpowerment on MaleExtramarital SexualBehavior: Evidence fromWest Africa

Cropper, Maureen(Co-Chair)Lafortune, Jeanne(Co-Chair)Guiteras, Raymond

Pruitt Walker, Sheri6022 Westchester ParkDr., Apt. 201College Park, MD 20740301-254-4470

Primary:Labor Economics

Secondary:Public Economics

The Effect of theIncarceration of Fatherson the EconomicWellbeing of Mothers

Hellerstein, Judith(Co-Chair)Ham, John (Co-Chair)Lee, Soohyung

Qian, Rong1444 Rhode Island Ave.NW Apt. 219Washington, DC 20005301-792-7859


Secondary:Political EconomyComputational Economics

Why Do Some CountriesDefault More Often thanOthers? The Role ofInstitutions

Reinhart, Carmen(Co-Chair)Végh, Carlos(Co-Chair)Mendoza, EnriqueD'Erasmo, Pablo

Qiao, Zhaogang32 Rockcrest CircleRockville, MD 20851301-706-6642

Primary:International FinanceApplied Econometrics

Secondary:Labor Economics

Empirical Tests onLong-run Cross-countryConsumption Risk Sharing

Korinek, Anton(Co-Chair)Prucha, Ingmar(Co-Chair)Végh, CarlosD'Erasmo, PabloMaksimovic, Vojislav

Sertsios, Giorgo3409 Tulane Dr., Apt. 33Hyattsville, MD 20742301-675-9369

Primary:Industrial OrganizationCorporate Finance

Secondary:Economics of Retailing

Investment Requirementsin Franchise Contracts asa Self-Enforcing Device:Theory and Evidence

Betancourt, Roger(Co-Chair)Phillips, Gordon(Co-Chair)Jin, Ginger

Sunel, Enes3406 Tulane Dr., Apt. 13Hyattsville, MD 20783240-481-3398

Primary:International EconomicsMacroeconomics

Secondary:Monetary EconomicsComputational Economics

On Inflation, WealthInequality and Welfare inEmerging Economies

D'Erasmo, Pablo(Co-Chair)Mendoza, Enrique(Co-Chair)Végh, Carlos

Tuzemen, Didem7017 Fordham Ct., Apt.2College Park, MD 20740301-785-3417

Primary:MacroeconomicsLabor Economics

Secondary:Development Economics,Political Economy

Labor Market Dynamicswith Endogenous LaborForce Participation andOn-the-Job Search

Haltiwanger, John(Chair)Aruoba, BoraganD'Erasmo, Pablo

Zhang, Jing4318 Rowalt Drive.,Apt. 202College Park, MD 20740240-755-1541

Primary:Development EconomicsEnvironmental Economics

Secondary:Labor EconomicsHealth Economics

The Impact of WaterQuality on Health:Evidence from theDrinking WaterInfrastructure Program inRural China

Hellerstein, Judith(Chair)Cropper, MaureenLee, Soohyung

SALEM ABO ZAID 4304 Sheridan Street, University Park, MD 20782

Phone: (240) 501-7843 Email: [email protected] Website: http://econweb.umd.edu/~abozaid/

EDUCATION Ph.D. Economics, University of Maryland, College Park, Expected Spring 2011. M.A. Economics, Ben-Gurion University, Beer-Sheva, Israel, 2003. B.A. Economics, Ben-Gurion University, Beer-Sheva, Israel, 2001.

DISSERTATION Part I. “Optimal Long-Run Inflation with Occasionally-Binding Financial Constraints” (Job Market Paper) Part II: “Optimal Monetary Policy and Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in Frictional Labor Markets”Part III: “Sticky Wages, Incomplete Pass-Through and Inflation Targeting: What is the Right Index to Target?”Committee: Prof. Sanjay Chugh (Chair), Prof. John Shea, Prof. Enrique Mendoza.

FIELDS OF SPECIALIZATION Primary: Monetary Economics, Macroeconomics. Secondary: International Economics, Computational Economics.

PAPERS AND PUBLICATIONS “Optimal Long-Run Inflation with Occasionally-Binding Financial Constraints.” Job Market Paper.

Presentation: 2010 Computing in Economics and Finance, City University London. Presentation: 2010 Midwest Macroeconomics Meetings, Michigan State University.

“Optimal Monetary Policy and Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in Frictional Labor Markets.”Work in progress.

“Sticky Wages, Incomplete Pass-Through and Inflation Targeting: What is the Right Index to Target?” Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Vol. 53 (1), pp. 28-58.

“Inflation Targeting: a Three-Decade Perspective,” submitted. (joint with Didem Tuzemen). “The Trade–Growth Relationship in Israel Revisited: Evidence from Annual Data, 1960-2004,”

Submitted.

TEACHING EXPERIENCE Instructor, Principles of Macroeconomics, Summer 2008, Winter 2009, Summer 2009, Winter 2010 and Summer 2010, University of Maryland. Teaching Assistant, Intermediate Microeconomics, Spring 2007; Intermediate Macroeconomics, Fall 2007 and Spring 2008; Principles of Microeconomics, Fall 2008 and Spring 2009; Intermediate Macroeconomics for Economics Majors, Fall 2009 and Spring 2010, University of Maryland. Teaching Assistant, Undergraduate Courses, 2001-2003, Ben-Gurion University.

RESEARCH/WORK EXPERIENCE Economist, The Research Department, Bank of Israel, Jerusalem, 2005-2006. Economist, The Adva Center, Tel-Aviv, 2005-2006. Economist, The Van-Leer Institute, Jerusalem, 2004-2006. Research Assistant, for Professor Dov Chernichovsky, Ben-Gurion University, 2001-2002. Associate Editor, Journal of Economics and Econometrics, 2010-Present.

AWARDS Graduate Assistantship, University of Maryland, 2006-present. Jacob K. Goldhaber Award, for Travel to the CEF conference, Summer 2010. Graduate Assistantship, Ben-Gurion University, 2001-2003. Merit-based Scholarship for Excellent Undergraduate Students, Ben-Gurion University, 2000-2001.

Salem Abo-Zaid – Page 2

REFERENCES Prof. Sanjay Chugh University of Maryland [email protected] (301) 405-3515Prof. John Shea University of Maryland [email protected] (301) 405-3491 Prof. Enrique Mendoza University of Maryland [email protected] (301) 405-3548

THESIS ABSTRACT Part I: “Optimal Long-Run Inflation with Occasionally-Binding Financial Constraints” (Job Market Paper)

This paper quantifies the optimal inflation rate in a simple New Keynesian model with occasionally-binding collateral constraints. For empirically-relevant degrees of price rigidity, the optimal annual long-run inflation rate is in the range of half a percent to 2 percent, depending on whether it is TFP risk or markup risk or both that is the source of uncertainty in the economy. Positive inflation is a result of precautionary behavior on the part of the central bank in expectations for adverse shocks. By setting a positive inflation rate on average, monetary policy mitigates the effects of potential adverse shocks on the economy through easing the collateral constraints. In particular, the frequency at which the collateral constraint binds under optimal policy is substantially lower compared to the frequency at which the constraint binds when the monetary policy maker commits to zero-inflation policy. The results of this paper are also in line with basic Ramsey literature regarding smoothing distortions over time. In this case smoothing distortions requires deviations from the zero-inflation rate prescription which is a cornerstone result in the standard New Keynesian model.

Part II: “Optimal Monetary Policy and Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in Frictional Labor Markets” Empirical evidence suggests that nominal wages in the U.S. are downwardly rigid. This paper

studies the optimal long-run inflation rate in a labor search and matching framework under the presence of Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity (DNWR). In this environment, optimal monetary policy targets a positive inflation rate; the annual long-run inflation rate for the U.S. is around 2 percent. Positive inflation “greases the wheels” of the labor market by facilitating real wage adjustments, and hence it eases job creation and prevents excessive increase in unemployment following recessionary shocks. These findings are related to standard Ramsey theory of “wedge smoothing”; by following a positive-inflation policy under sticky prices, the monetary authority manages to reduce the volatility and the size of the intertemporal distortion significantly. The intertemporal wedge is completely smoothed when prices are fully flexible. Since the optimal long-run inflation rate predicted by this study is considerably higher than in otherwise neoclassical labor markets, the nature of the labor market in which DNWR is studied can be relevant for policy recommendations.

Part III: “Sticky Wages, Incomplete Pass-Through and Inflation Targeting: What is the Right Index to Target?”

This paper studies strict monetary policy rules in a small open economy with Inflation Targeting, incomplete pass-through and rigid nominal wages. The paper shows that, when nominal wages are fully flexible and pass-through is low to moderate, the monetary authority should target the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rather than the Domestic Price Index (DPI). When pass-through is high, an economy with high degrees of nominal wage rigidity and wage indexation should either target the CPI or fully stabilize nominal wages. These results suggest that, by committing to a common monetary policy in a common-currency area, some countries may not be following the right monetary policy rules.

PERSONAL INFORMATION Nationality: Israeli (F-1 VISA); Gender: Male.

��University of Maryland, Department of Economics

College Park, MD 20742 Phone: (310) 560-6113 Email: [email protected]

Website: http://econweb.umd.edu/~alpert/

� �� Ph.D. Economics, University of Maryland at College Park, expected May 2011 B.S. Mathematics and Economics, University of Chicago, June 2003

�� !��"��Committee: Professor Mark Duggan (Co-Chair), Professor Judith K. Hellerstein (Co-Chair), Professor Raymond Guiteras

�� Primary: Health Economics, Public Economics

Secondary: Labor Economics, Applied Econometrics �

� ��“The Anticipatory Effects of Medicare Part D on Drug Utilization,” #��$��%�� &��'�� (��)#��*+,+“Perverse Reverse Price Competition: Average Wholesale Prices and Medicaid Pharmaceutical Spending” (with Mark Duggan and Judith Hellerstein), ��%��. “Technology, Monopoly, and the Decline of the Viatical Settlements Industry.” 2005. NBER Working Paper No. 11164. (with Neeraj Sood and Jay Bhattacharya) “A Socioeconomic Profile of Older Adults with HIV.” 2005.#��(�� -��, 16: pp 19-28. (with Geoffrey Joyce, Dana Goldman, Arleen Leibowitz, and Yuhua Bao) “Should California Regulate Health Insurance Premiums?” 2004. California Health Care Foundation. (with Neeraj Sood, Dana Goldman, and Mary Vaiana) “Societal perspective: comment.” 2006. Chapter 28 in Futerman, A. and Zimran, A. eds,

.��!��, pp 489-497. CRC Press. (with Alan Garber and Dana Goldman) ��

/��&��, Empirical Microeconomics (Graduate), UMD, Spring 2008, Fall 2008 "��, Labor Economics (Undergraduate), UMD, Summer 2008, 2009, 2010

��

��&��, Prof. Mark Duggan, UMD, Fall 2007, Spring 2009-Summer 2010 ��&��, Profs John Haltiwanger and Seth Sanders, Census Bureau, LEHD, Sum. 2007 ��&��, Prof. Seth Sanders, UMD, Fall 2005-Spring 2007 ��&��, RAND Corporation, Health Economics Group, 2003-2005 '��"��, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ), 2002

��Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Dissertation Fellowship, 2010 – 2011 Economic Club of Washington Doctoral Research Fellowship, 2010 Maryland Population Research Center, University of Maryland, Trainee, 2006 - 2007

�

Abby Alpert – Page 2

�� Prof. Mark Duggan University of Maryland [email protected] (301) 405-3532

Prof. Judith K. Hellerstein University of Maryland [email protected] (301) 405-3545 Prof. Raymond Guiteras University of Maryland [email protected] (301) 405-3480

��0/�&�� $��!��!��-��1��2[Job Market Paper] In December 2003, the Medicare Prescription Drug, Improvement, and Modernization Act (MMA) was signed into law, expanding the Medicare program to include insurance coverage for prescription drugs. This program, known as Part D, was not implemented until 2006. Given this two-year lag in implementation, anticipation of the permanent future price change brought about by subsidized coverage may have induced forward-looking individuals to change their drug spending �� Part D took effect. This pre-reform utilization response is theoretically ambiguous due to opposing income and inter-temporal substitution effects. In this paper, I estimate the causal utilization response to the announcement of Part D in 2003 using data from the MCBS and MEPS. This contrasts with previous evaluations of Part D, and of drug co-insurance changes more broadly, that have estimated only contemporaneous utilization effects, thus implicitly assuming a myopic policy response. My main empirical approach identifies whether there was a causal anticipatory response by comparing utilization of chronic drugs relative to acute drugs before and after the announcement. Given that acute drugs treat illnesses that are largely unpredictable and short in duration, their demand is predicted to respond only to current prices, whereas chronic drug use may respond negatively or positively to anticipated future price reductions. I find evidence of a large negative announcement effect in the aggregate. Chronic drug use declined by nearly 7 percent relative to acute drug use after the announcement providing evidence of forward-looking demand for drugs and a dominating inter-temporal substitution effect. This effect is concentrated among elderly with below-median incomes and the youngest Medicare beneficiaries, for whom the costs of delaying treatment are lowest. After accounting for this negative anticipatory response, I find a total treatment effect on utilization in the first year of the program that is substantially smaller than if anticipation effects are ignored.

0��3&��4��$��'��2 (with Mark Duggan and Judith K. Hellerstein) [Work in Progress] Generic drugs comprise an increasing share of total prescriptions dispensed in the US, rising from 47 percent in 2000 to 63 percent in 2007. The generic drug market has typically been viewed as a mostly competitive market with price approaching marginal costs. However, the large presence of third party payers as final purchasers may distort prices and market shares relative to what a standard model of price competition would predict. In this paper, we investigate how generic drug producers compete in the presence of the third-party reimbursement rules of the Medicaid program. Medicaid reimbursement to pharmacies, like that of other payers, is based on a benchmark price called the average wholesale price (AWP), which is published in several pricing catalogues. This list price is reported by generic producers themselves, and until recently has been subject to essentially no independent verification. As a result, generic producers have had an incentive to compete for pharmacy market share by reporting AWPs that are much greater than actual average prices, as this “spread” leads to larger pharmacy profits. In 2000, after a federal government audit of actual wholesale prices of generic products, states were advised to reduce Medicaid reimbursement by as much as 95% for 400 generic and off-patent injectable, infusion, and inhalation drug products. We use variation induced by the timing of this policy along with its differential impact on drug products and states to identify the impact of this exogenous price change on the market share of affected products. Our findings indicate that pharmacies respond to the perverse incentives of the Medicaid program by stocking products with the highest AWPs..��Citizenship: U.S. Gender: Female

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JAVIER BIANCHI 3402 Tulane Dr. Apt 23 Hyattsville, MD 20783 Phone: (240) 476-2709

Email: [email protected] Website: http://www.econweb.umd.edu/~bianchi

EDUCATION

Ph.D. Economics, University of Maryland at College Park, expected May 2011 B.A. Economics, Universidad de Montevideo, December 2003

DISSERTATION

“Essays on Financial Crises and Financial Regulation” Committee: Prof. Enrique Mendoza (Chair), Prof. Anton Korinek, Prof. Carlos Vegh

FIELDS OF SPECIALIZATION

Primary: Open Macroeconomics, Macroeconomics Secondary: International Finance, Computational Economics

PAPERS AND PUBLICATIONS

“Credit Externalities: Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Implications”, American Economic Review Papers and Proceeding, May 2010, Vol 100(2)

“Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle”, Job market paper (revised and resubmitted, American Economic Review) Presentations: 2010 Society of Economic Dynamics (SED) meetings, AEA meetings, Midwest Macro meetings, Atlanta Fed, New York Fed, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, IMF, XII Workshop in International Economics and Finance, XV Workshop on Dynamic Macroeconomics, 2009 Latin American Econometric Society meetings, IV Annual Washington University Graduate Student Conference, Universidad de Montevideo, and the Central Bank of Uruguay

“Overborrowing, Financial Crises and Macroprudential Regulation”, with Enrique Mendoza Presentations: 2010 ITAM Summer Camp in Macroeconomics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, 2010 CEPR Macroeconomic Policy Research Workshop on 'Understanding Financial Frictions’, 2010 Workshop of ‘Financial Globalization and Financial Instability’, Bank of Canada

“Efficient Bailouts?”, work in progress TEACHING EXPERIENCE

Instructor, Numerical Methods, Universidad de Montevideo, Summer 2009 (M.A. level) Teaching Assistant, Business Cycle Theory for Emerging Economies Spring 2009. Computational

methods for solving DSGE models (PhD. Level) Instructor, Mathematical Methods for Economists, University of Maryland, Summer 2008 Teaching Assistant, Microeconomics, University of Maryland, Spring 2008 (PhD. Level) Teaching Assistant, Introductory Macroeconomics, University of Maryland, Fall 2007 Teaching Assistant, Mathematical Economics, Universidad de Montevideo, 2004-2006 Teaching Assistant, Money and Banking, Universidad de Montevideo, 2004-2006

RESEARCH/WORK EXPERIENCE Dissertation Internship, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Summer 2010

Dissertation Internship, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Summer 2009 Research Assistant for Prof. Enrique Mendoza, Fall 2008-Spring 2010 Research Assistant at Central Bank of Uruguay 2004-2006

Javier Bianchi – Page 2

AWARDS Anne G. Wylie Dissertation Fellowship, University of Maryland, Fall 2010 Best Paper Award, XV Workshop in Dynamic Macroeconomics—Vigo, Spain 1st prize fellowship for best third-year paper—Department of Economics, UMD, 2009 Jacob K. Goldhaber Award, for travel to conference, Fall 2009 University of Maryland Fellowship, 2007-2008 Fulbright-Laspau Scholarship, 2006-2007 First Place in Central Bank of Uruguay Contest for Econ Majors, July 2004 Merit Scholarship Universidad de Montevideo, 2000-2003

PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES Referee for Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance REFERENCES

Anton Korinek University of Maryland [email protected] (301) 405-4536 Enrique Mendoza University of Maryland [email protected] (301) 405-3548 John Shea University of Maryland [email protected] (301) 405-3491 Carlos Vegh University of Maryland [email protected] (301) 405-3546

THESIS ABSTRACT Part I: Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle. Job market paper

Credit constraints linking debt to market-determined prices embody a systemic credit externality that drives a wedge between competitive and constrained socially optimal equilibria, inducing private agents to “overborrow." This externality arises because private agents fail to internalize the financial amplification effects of carrying a large amount of debt when credit constraints bind. I conduct a quantitative analysis of this externality in a two-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of a small open economy calibrated to emerging markets. Raising the cost of borrowing during tranquil times restores constrained efficiency and significantly reduces the incidence and severity of financial crises.

Part II: Overborrowing, Financial Crises and `Macro-prudential' Taxes. (with Enrique Mendoza)

This paper studies overborrowing and financial crises in an equilibrium model of business cycles and asset prices with collateral constraints. Private agents in a decentralized competitive equilibrium do not internalize the effects of their individual borrowing plans on the market price of assets at which collateral is valued and on the wage costs relevant for working capital financing. Quantitatively, average debt and leverage ratios are only slightly larger in the competitive equilibrium, but the incidence and magnitude of financial crises is much larger. We examine the implications for asset pricing properties finding that excess asset returns, Sharpe ratios and the market price of risk also become much larger.

Part III: Efficient Bailouts?

Financial crises typically lead to bailouts of the financial sector. A common argument for these bailouts is that they help to mitigate the credit crunch that accompanies financial crises. The anticipation of future bailouts, however, distorts ex-ante incentives encouraging the financial sector to take excessive risk. I study these effects in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents. The focus is on making a quantitative assessment of the positive and welfare implications of bailouts of the financial sector.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION Gender: Male Languages: English (Fluent), Spanish (Native) Citizenship: Uruguayan and Italian Visa: J1

JUAN D. BONILLA4331 Rowalt Drive, Apt 302, College Park, MD 20740.Phone: (301) 263-4897 Email: [email protected]

Website: http://econweb.umd.edu/~bonilla/

EDUCATIONPh.D. Economics, University of Maryland at College Park, expected May 2011M.A. Economics, New York University (Terminal Program), New York, May 2006

M.S. courses at Courant Institute of Math M.A. Economics, Universidad de los Andes, Bogotá, Colombia, March 2001B.A. Economics, Universidad de los Andes, Bogotá, Colombia, September 2000

DISSERTATION“Essays on Contracting Out Public Schools and Academic Achievement”Committee: Prof. Judith K. Hellerstein (Chair), Prof. Robert Schwab, Prof. Melissa Kearney

FIELDS OF SPECIALIZATIONPrimary: Labor Economics, Public Economics Secondary: Econometrics

PAPERS“Contracting out Public Schools for Academic Achievement: Evidence from Colombia”.

[Job Market Paper] Paper to be presented at LACEA, November 12, 2010. “Longer-Term Educational Consequences of Increased Public School Accountability: Evidence from

Administrative Records in Colombia”. [Work in Progress]“The Effects of Minimum Wage Increases throughout the Wage Distribution” (with Jairo Núñez),

Coyuntura Social, FEDESARROLLO. May, 2001

RESEARCH EXPERIENCEResearch Assistant, for Professor Judith K. Hellerstein, University of Maryland (08/2008-05/2010).Research Assistant, for Professor Raymond Guiteras, University of Maryland (Summer 2010).Research Assistant, for Professor Diego Comin, New York University (Fall 2005-Spring 2006).

When Does Domestic Saving Matter for Economic Growth?” by Philippe Aghion, Diego Comin, and Peter Howitt. NBER WP 12275

Research Assistant, for Professor Matthew Wiswall, New York University (Fall 2005-Spring 2006)

PUBLIC POLICY EXPERIENCEConsultant World Bank (DEC), 2008.

Analyses of Urban Upgrading Projects in Developing Countries.Economist Secretary of Finance, Bogotá, Colombia (2001-2004).

Design of Property Tax Reform in Bogota. Design of methodologies for property and automotive tax evasion estimation. Redesign of Automotive Tax Base.

TEACHING EXPERIENCEInstructor. University of Maryland: Intermediate Microeconomics (2008-2010) Teaching Assistant. University of Maryland: Empirical Microeconomics (Graduate) (2010)Teaching Assistant. University of Maryland: Intermediate Microeconomics. (2007-2008)Teaching Assistant. New York University: Econometrics (2005) (Prof. Christopher Flinn) Teaching Assistant. Universidad de los Andes, Colombia: Microeconomics III: General Equilibrium

(2002-2004), Microeconomics II: Imperfect Competition (2002).

Juan D. Bonilla - Page 2

AWARDS Selected Intern for Research Department (RES), IADB, 2008. (Declined) Graduate Assistantship, Department of Economics, University of Maryland 2007 to date Graduate Fellowship, Department of Economics, University of Maryland 2006-2007Fulbright Scholarship for MA in Economics, 2004-2006Full tuition award, Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, New York University, 2004-2006 BARSA Scholarship Award, 2004-2006

REFERENCESProf. Judith K Hellerstein University of Maryland [email protected] (301) 405-3545Prof. Robert Schwab University of Maryland [email protected] (301) 405-3487Prof. Melissa Kearney University of Maryland [email protected] (202) 536-8878

DISSERTATIONPart I: Contracting out Public Schools for Academic Achievement: Evidence from Colombia [Job market paper]

A central issue in public finance considers the benefits from contracting out public services to the private sector. Whereas advocates argue that private firms are more efficient providers than public managers, opponents maintain that private firms reduce non-contractible quality. This paper evaluates the causal impact on academic achievement of contracting out public schools to private operators. The Colegios en Concesion (CEC) program is a large-scale initiative implemented in 2000 in Bogot\'a, Colombia, that contracted out all new public schools to well reputed private schools and universities. This program allowed CEC schools to operate outside the collective bargaining provisions of traditional public schools in return for higher accountability, including test-based accountability. To overcome potential selection bias of students into CEC schools, this paper exploits variation in distance from a student's residence to the closest CEC institution as an instrument for CEC attendance. While distance may in theory be correlated with unobservable characteristics of students, I demonstrate using a variety of empirical strategies that this instrument is conditionally exogenous of unobserved determinants of academic achievement. The two-stage least squares estimates obtained indicate that CEC students' score 0.6 and 0.2 standard deviations higher in math and verbal tests, respectively, relative to public school students. I also provide evidence that the estimated results are not driven by unintended strategic responses by CEC schools, such as the exclusion of low-performing students from the pool of test-takers or via test specialization in the curriculum. The CEC program provides evidence in favor of the theoretical case for private provision of public education through a governance structure that, in addition to contractually demand academic performance prevents schools from undertaking quality-shading cost reductions by granting contracts to non-profit organizations with strong reputational motives.

Part II: Longer-Term Educational Consequences of Increased Public School Accountability: Evidence from Administrative Records in Colombia. [Work in Progress]

In Chapter 1 of the dissertation, I provide evidence that attending contracted out public schools raises student test scores. However, these results do not necessarily translate into longer-run gains in potentially more meaningful outcomes such as increasing the probability of investing in post-secondary schooling, attending a more selective tertiary institution, or being admitted in high-return academic programs. Using the empirical strategy developed in Chapter 1, I examine some long-run effects of the CEC public school accountability program in Bogota using administrative data on college level enrollment (2- and 4-year programs), major choice, and college academic performance.

PERSONAL INFORMATIONCitizenship: Colombia (J1 Visa) Gender: Male Languages: Spanish (native) English (fluent)

�� 11263 Center Harbor Road, Reston VA 20194

Mobile: (202) 390-4267 Email: [email protected]

http://econweb.umd.edu/~douoguih/ � ��

Ph.D. Economics, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, expected May 2011 M.S. Mineral Economics, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO, 2005 B.A. Economics, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 2001

��

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��*�0�� 3��-��.��2Committee: Prof. Maureen Cropper (Co-Chair), Prof Erkut Ozbay (Co-Chair), Prof. Emel Filiz-

Ozbay

��

Primary: Development Economics, Experimental Economics, Industrial Organization Secondary: Economics of Natural Resources, Institutional Economics

��

"Do Taxpayers Use Charity Donations to Keep Auditors at Bay? Theory and Experiment (with Erkut Ozbay) #��$��%��

"Competition in the City: Experimental Evidence from Rural and Urban Ghana" (with Erkut Ozbay) '��)*+,+

“Does Mineral Resource Dependence Foster Corruption?” Masters Thesis, Colorado School of Mines, 2005.

��

"��, Theory of Economic Development, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 2010 /��&��, Mathematics for Economists, University of Maryland, College Park, MD,

2008-2010 /��&��, Intermediate Microeconomics, University of Maryland, College Park, MD,

2006-2007 "��, Intermediate Macroeconomics, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO, 2004

��

Managing Partner, Constelor Investment Holdings, Dakar, Senegal 2008-Present Investment Officer, Africa Finance Corporation, Lagos, Nigeria, 2007-2008 Mineral Economic Consultant, CVRD Inco Ltd. Toronto, Canada, Summer 2006, Summer 2007 Mineral Economist, Inco Ltd., Sudbury, Canada, 2005 Research Assistant, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC, 2001-2003 Summer Analyst, Goldman, Sachs & Co., San Francisco, CA - New York, NY, 2000 Stanford in Government Fellow, World Bank, Brasília, Brazil, 1999

Kahwa Douoguih-Page 2

�

��

2009-2010 Graduate Teaching Award 2006-2010 University of Maryland Graduate Fellowship 2004 Darlene Pauli Fellowship 2004 Hubert and Sarah Risser Award in Mineral Economics 2004 Coulter Graduate Student Teaching Fellowship

��

Prof. Maureen Cropper University of Maryland [email protected] (301)405-3483 Prof. Erkut Ozbay University of Maryland [email protected] (301)405-3481 Prof. Emel Filiz-Ozbay University of Maryland [email protected] (301)405-3474

��

�� !"�#� #"��$��%&!��'�&%�'#�&��"" ��()%&��#��&��!*��$"��!��')�� "�%+"'&��(withErkut Ozbay) We examine the effect of a charitable donation option on tax compliance and auditing behavior. In a two-sided experiment, “taxpayer” subjects voluntarily report their income and decide whether to make an observable and verifiable donation to a charity; “auditor” subjects choose which taxpayers to audit based on reported information. Our theoretical results indicate that the availability of a charitable donation option in a tax compliance framework should have no impact on tax compliance behavior among standard utility maximizing individuals. However, when auditing of taxpayer reports is endogenously determined, rational utility maximizers may donate to charity in equilibrium when they otherwise would not in order to signal “honesty,” thereby reducing the probability of audit. We provide experimental evidence to support our theoretical results.

,��+ "&%&%�'�%'�&$"��%&!-�� "�%+"'&�.�/%)"'0"�1��+�(��.��')� �2�'��$�'�3�(with Erkut Ozbay) With disparate rural and urban development outcomes in many African countries there is growing policy interest in promoting entrepreneurship. If preferences for competition vary by rural and urban areas, entrepreneurship programs may not take hold in populations that tend to shy away from competitive and uncertain economic opportunities, thus contributing to the systematic underdevelopment of rural areas. In a field experiment conducted among potential entrepreneurs in rural and urban Ghana, I find that rural participants were 18 percent less likely than their urban counterparts to select an all-or-nothing tournament compensation scheme over a piece rate wage when performing a simple matching task. The difference between the rural and urban tournament choice was driven by participants whose performance ranked in the second quartile within their rural or urban group; urban participants in the second quartile were three times more likely to choose the tournament than rural participants in the second quartile. While I observed no signs of participant overconfidence across groups, rural participants were consistently underconfident whereas urban participants were not.

��Citizenship: U.S. Gender: Female Languages: Portuguese and French

CAROLINA GONZÁLEZ-VELOSA4331 Rowalt Drive, Apt 302, College Park, MD 20740

Phone: (301) 263-4901 Email: [email protected]

Website: http://econweb.umd.edu/~gonzalez-velosa

EDUCATION Ph.D. Economics, University of Maryland at College Park, expected May 2011 M.A. Economics, New York University (Terminal Program), New York, May 2006

B.A. Economics, Universidad de los Andes, Bogotá, Colombia, June 2000

DISSERTATION “Essays on Migration and Agricultural Development” Committee: Prof. Jeanne Lafortune (Chair), Prof. Judith Hellerstein, Prof. Maureen Cropper

FIELDS OF SPECIALIZATION Primary: Development Economics, Labor Economics Secondary: Applied Microeconomics

PAPERS“The Effects of Emigration and Remittances on Agriculture: Evidence from the Philippines”

Job Market Paper“More Hands, More Power? The Impact of Immigration on US Farming and Agricultural Technologies

in the Early 20th Century”. Work in progress (with Jeanne Lafortune and José Tessada)

RESEARCH EXPERIENCEResearch Assistant, for Professor Jeanne Lafortune, University of Maryland (Fall 2008, Spring 2009, Spring 2010).Research Assistant, for Professor Matthew Wiswall, New York University (Fall 2005-Spring 2006)

PUBLIC POLICY EXPERIENCEEconomic Advisor. Ministry of Finance of Colombia. Bogotá, Colombia (2003-2004).

Responsibilities included a study of the effects of the 2002 national tax reform on private investment and consumption and the elaboration of the quarterly economic survey.

Economist. Secretary of Finance, Bogotá, Colombia (2000-2003).Member of a team of economists that studied and designed reforms to Bogotá’s tax system,budget institutions and public education system.

TEACHING EXPERIENCEInstructor. University of Maryland: Introduction to Econometrics (2008,2009, 2010)

Teaching Assistant. University of Maryland: Introduction to Econometrics. (2007, 2009) Principles of Microeconomics (2006, 2007, 2008).

Teaching Assistant. New York University: Macroeconomics Principles (2005, 2006) Teaching Assistant. Universidad de los Andes, Colombia: Game Theory (2004), History of Economic

Thought (2003), Institutional Economics (2002), Principles of Microeconomics (2000,2001)

AWARDS Graduate Assistantship, Department of Economics, University of Maryland, 2006 to date Traineeship, Maryland Population Research Center, University of Maryland, 2008-2009 Fulbright Scholarship for MA in Economics, 2004-2006 Full tuition award, Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, New York University, 2004-2006 BARSA Scholarship Award, 2004-2006 Whitehall Foundation Scholarship for BA studies in Economics, September 1995-May 2000

Carolina González-Velosa - Page 2

REFERENCES Prof. Jeanne Lafortune University of Maryland [email protected] +56 (2) 354-7101 Prof. Judith Hellerstein University of Maryland [email protected] (301) 405-3545 Prof. Maureen Cropper University of Maryland [email protected] (202) 328-5083 THESIS ABSTRACT

Part I: “The Effects of Emigration and Remittances on Agriculture: Evidence from the Philippines” [Job market paper]

Given the prevalence of factor and insurance market imperfections in rural economies, the effects of remittances and emigration on agricultural production are likely to be large. By altering factor endowments and providing a risk-mitigating device, emigration and remittances may lead to a decline in the relative size of agriculture and facilitate agricultural modernization. This paper investigates the impact of remittances and emigration on agricultural production in the Philippines, one of the largest exporters of migrants in the world. I estimate province-level effects of emigration and remittances on the size of the Philippines’ agricultural sector and the degree of mechanization and specialization in farming. I use a double-instrumentation strategy that exploits macroeconomic shocks at the migrant’s predicted destinations in order to identify separately the effects of migration and remittances. The results suggest that neither emigration nor remittances have impacted the size of agriculture: there is no evidence of effects on number of farms, farmed area and labor input allocation. Remittances appear to increase the fraction of rice farms that use capital-intensive technologies and decrease the fraction of farms that engage in crop diversification. Emigration, on the other hand, has little overall impact on agricultural production decisions. These asymmetric impacts are consistent with an economy that has a well-functioning labor market but has capital and insurance constraints.

Part II: “More Hands, More Power? The Impact of Immigration on US Farming and Agricultural Technologies in the Early 20th Century” [with Jeanne Lafortune and José Tessada]

How do production and technology adoption respond to the availability or the price of complementary factors? This paper examines this question in the context of US agriculture in the first three decades of the 20th century by studying the responses of the agricultural sector to immigration flows at the local level. Using the location of past immigrants as instrument for the location choice of new immigrants, we estimate the impact of an increase in the number of farm workers on capital intensity and technology adoption in agriculture at the county level. We find that larger immigrant flows led to slower adoption of labor-saving technologies (such as draft power), a shift towards more labor-intensive crops, and to smaller plots more often farmed by renters than owners. At the same time, an increase in the number of immigrants in a county led the farms to be less capital intensive, as there is an observed decline in capital-labor ratios. These results are robust to controls for scale, crop mix and state-level time trends. Overall, our results indicate that while output mix and technology adoption did respond to the labor influx of capital, some of the adjustment was made through changes in factor intensities for a given crop mix, thus suggesting some degree of adjustment in factor prices.

PERSONAL INFORMATION

Citizenship: Colombian. Gender: Female Languages: Spanish (native) English (fluent)

Kyle Handley, 1

KYLE HANDLEY 7923 Eastern Ave #803, Silver Spring, MD 20910

Mobile: (301) 648-3018 Email: [email protected], Website: www.econ.umd.edu/~handley/

EDUCATIONPh.D. Economics, University of Maryland, College Park, expected May 2011 M.Sc. Economics, London School of Economics, 2006 B.S. Economics and Mathematics (with distinction), University of Wisconsin, Madison, 2000

DISSERTATION “Entry and Exit Under Trade Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence”

Committee: Prof. Nuno Limão (Chair), Prof. John Haltiwanger, Prof. John Shea

FIELDS OF SPECIALIZATIONPrimary: International Trade Secondary: Econometrics, Macroeconomics, Economic Geography

PAPERS “Entry and Exit Under Trade Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence” Job Market Paper

Presented at U.S. Census Bureau in 2009 and University of Melbourne, University of Adelaide and the Rocky Mountain Empirical Trade Conference in 2010

“Trade and Investment under Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Firm Evidence,” with Nuno Limão, University of Maryland, 2010

“Country size, technology and manufacturing location,” University of Maryland, 2009, submitted. “Private equity, jobs and productivity,” with Steven Davis, John Haltiwanger, Ron Jarmin, Josh

Lerner and Javier Miranda, U.S. Census Bureau, 2009 “Testing Gibrat’s Law: Evidence from firm microdata,” with Xavier Gabaix, John Haltiwanger

and Javier Miranda, in progress

TEACHING EXPERIENCEInstructor, MATLAB Mini-course, University of Maryland, Fall 2009. Teaching Assistant, University of Maryland: Principles of Microeconomics, Fall 2006, Intermediate Macroeconomics, Spring 2007.

RESEARCH/WORK EXPERIENCE Economist, U.S. Census Bureau, September 2007-present

Primarily engaged in research assistance and support for Prof. John Haltiwanger Investment Advisor, Capital Financial Services, October 2000-September 2006 Research Assistant, Prof. Donald Hester, University of Wisconsin, June-August 1999

AWARDS National Science Foundation, East Asia and Pacific Summer Institutes Fellow,

“Exporting under trade policy uncertainty: theory and evidence from Australia,” (OISE-1015333), University of Melbourne, June-August 2010

Vernon E. Jordan Doctoral Fellowship, Economic Club of Washington, 2010 Jacob K. Goldhaber Award, for travel to conference, Spring 2010. Spatial Econometrics Advanced Institute, tuition waiver, June 2008 Graduate Assistantship, University of Maryland, 2006-present Sophomore Honors Research Apprenticeship, University of Wisconsin, 1999 Gerald G. Somers Economics Essay Award, University of Wisconsin, 1998

Kyle Handley, 2

REFERENCES Prof. Nuno Limão Prof. John Haltiwanger Prof. John SheaDepartment of Economics Department of Economics Department of EconomicsUniversity of Maryland University of Maryland University of MarylandCollege Park, MD [email protected]

College Park, MD 20742 [email protected]

College Park, MD [email protected]

(301) 405-7842 (301) 405-3504 (202) 622-2734

THESIS ABSTRACT

Part I. “Entry and Exit Under Trade Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence” (Job Market Paper)

Policy commitment and credibility are essential for inducing agents to make costly, irreversible investments. Policy uncertainty can delay investment and reduce the marginal response to policy change. I provide theoretical and novel quantitative evidence for this channel by focusing on trade policy, a ubiquitous but often overlooked source of uncertainty when a firm's cost of export market entry is sunk. While an explicit purpose of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and preferential trade agreements (PTAs) is to secure long term market access, little theoretical and empirical work analyzes the implicit value of these arrangements to reduce uncertainty for prospective exporters. Within a tractable model of trade policy uncertainty, I show that exporters will delay entry into new markets and react less responsively to applied tariff reductions. Policy instruments that reduce or eliminate uncertainty such as PTAs or binding trade policy commitments at the WTO can increase entry even when applied protection is unchanged. I test the model using a disaggregated and detailed dataset of product level Australian imports for 2002-2006. I use the variation in tariffs and PTA implementation across countries, products and time, to construct measures of uncertainty given by the model. The estimates indicate PTAs reduce the probability of policy reversals and that WTO commitments limit the worst case policy shocks. Reducing trade policy uncertainty is up to 4 times more quantitatively important than tariff reductions alone. These results illuminate and quantify an important new channel for trade creation in the world trade system.

Part II. “Trade and Investment under Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Firm Evidence”

We provide theoretical and empirical evidence that trade policy uncertainty can significantly affect investment and entry into export markets. When market entry costs are sunk, policy uncertainty can create a real option value of waiting to enter foreign markets until conditions improve or uncertainty is resolved. Using a dynamic, heterogeneous firms model we show that: (i) investment and entry into export markets is reduced when trade policy is uncertain, and (ii) preferential trade agreements (PTAs) are valuable to exporters even if applied trade barriers are currently low or zero. We derive a structural equation that predicts how firm entry responds to changes in applied tariffs and a theory-based measure of policy uncertainty. We test our predictions using Portugal's accession to the European Community in 1986 with new firm-level trade data. Our estimates indicate that the accession removed uncertainty about future preferences and this channel lead to substantial investment and entry of Portuguese exporters into EC markets. We argue that these results have broader implications for many other PTAs that aim to secure pre-existing preferences and that our approach can also be applied to analyze other sources of policy uncertainty.

��7025 Strathmore Street, Apt. 4.

Bethesda, MD 20815 Phone: (301) 787-0470

Email: [email protected]: http://www.econ.umd.edu/~hernaiz

�� Ph.D. Economics, University of Maryland. College Park, MD. Expected: Summer 2011. M.A. Development Economics, Williams College. Williamstown, MA, 2004. B.A. Economics, Universidad Catolica Boliviana. La Paz, Bolivia, 2002.

�� $��"�� Committee: Prof. Boragan Aruoba (Co-Chair) Prof. John Shea (Co-Chair), Prof. Sanjay Chugh Prof. Carlos Vegh.

��Primary: Macroeconomics Secondary: International Finance

��“A Monetary Model with Price Promotions”. #��$��%��. University of Maryland, 2010. “A Quantitative Analysis of Currency Substitution” (work in progress). Papers at the Economic Policy Analysis Unit of the Bolivian Government (UDAPE):

“Effects of External Debt and Other Macroeconomic Policies on Output: A VAR Approach” (2006), Análisis Económico Vol. 21, UDAPE. With Julio Humerez (in Spanish).

“A Dynamic Estimation of Core Inflation for Bolivia” (2005). Análisis Económico, Vol. 20, UDAPE. With Fernando Jimenez (in Spanish).

“An Estimation of Potential GDP Based on Short Run Restrictions” (2005). UDAPE Working Papers (in Spanish).

�� Williams College

"��, Preparation Camp in Macroeconomics (for M.A. students), Summer 2008, Summer 2009.

University of Maryland "��, Mini-course on Quantitative Methods (for honors undergraduate students), Fall

2008, Fall 2009, Fall 2010. /��&�� , Honors Sequence in Economics Fall 2008, Spring 2009, Fall 2009,

Spring 2010./��&��, Principles of Microeconomics, Spring 2008. /��&��, Principles of Macroeconomics, Fall 2006, Spring 2007, Fall 2007.

�� Research assistantship

��&��, Professor Carlos Vegh - University of Maryland. Winter 2008, Summer 2009, Winter 2009.

��&�� , Professor Carmen Reinhart - University of Maryland. Winter 2008, Summer 2009, Winter 2009.

��&��, Professor Peter Montiel – Williams College. Summer 2004, Summer 2008.

��&��, Professor Peter Pedroni – Williams College. Summer 2004.

Daniel Hernaiz - Page 2

Public Policy (Research and Policy Analysis)'�� Macroeconomic Division, Economic Policy Analysis Unit (UDAPE),

Government of Bolivia, La Paz, Bolivia, 2004-2006. ��8�� Bolivian Public Sector Reform Support Project, Canadian Executive

Service Organization, La Paz, Bolivia, 2001-2003.&�� National Direction of Planning and Territorial Organization. Vice-ministry of

Strategic Planning and Popular Participation, Government of Bolivia, La Paz, Bolivia, 2001.

Professional Training Financial Programming and Policies Course – IMF Institute, Washington DC, September-

October 2005. Results Based Management - Canadian Executive Service Organization, La Paz, Bolivia

2001.

�� The Graduate School, University of Maryland, 2009. '�� .

Center for Development Economics, Williams College, 2004. #��%9��"��$��1 to the best paper prepared by a graduate student.

Organization of American States, 2003. .��'��.Universidad Católica Boliviana, 2002. (��!��.

�� Prof. Boragan Aruoba University of Maryland [email protected] (301) 405-3508 Prof. Sanjay Chugh University of Maryland [email protected] (301) 405-3515 Prof. John Shea University of Maryland [email protected] (301) 405-3491

Prof. Carlos Vegh University of Maryland [email protected] (301) 405-3546

��0&$�� $��2[Job market paper]

Recent microeconomic price evidence shows that price promotions may have a significant bearing on the measured frequency of price changes. This raises the question of whether or not micro price flexibility translates into macro neutrality to monetary shocks. This paper introduces price promotions in a monetary DSGE model where consumers differ in their price sensitivity and look for promotions, and where firms choose their regular and promotional prices as well as the frequency of promotions. Under this setting, regular and promotional prices coexist, and promotional prices provide a new source of price flexibility. After allowing for Calvo-stickiness in regular prices, individual price series behave in a way consistent with empirical findings: regular prices are sticky, prices including sales change very frequently, and realized prices show rigidity in the form of inertia in reference prices around which weekly prices revolve. As a result of the flexibility introduced by promotional prices, the economy displays near neutrality with respect to monetary policy shocks. This result contrasts with the one obtained by similar studies using alternative rationales for promotions, showing the importance of further exploration on the design of firm-customer interactions in macroeconomic models.

�� Citizenship: Bolivia (Visa Status: F-1) Languages: Spanish, English Gender: Male

��4�8201 16th St, Apt. 1203, Silver Spring, MD 20910

Phone: 240-755-2145 Email: [email protected] Website: www.econ.umd.edu/~hitaj

�� Ph.D. Economics, Univ. of Maryland at College Park, Expected May 2010 M.A. Economics, Univ. of Maryland at College Park, December 2008

B.S. Economics (Major, Honors), International Relations (Minor, Honors), Middle East Technical University, Ankara, May 2000

��

Part I�0&��9��'��/��3(��4��$��"��(��2

Part II. 06�� 3��!��"��2Committee: Prof. Peter Murrell (Co-Chair), Prof. Ingmar Prucha (Co-chair), Prof. Raymond

Guiteras��

Primary: Economics of Institutions, Transition Economics Secondary: Behavioral Economics, Industrial Organization, Political Economy

��“Aspirations and Life Satisfaction in Transition: How Wanting More Increases Happiness,” #��$��%��

� ,Blood Feuds: The Economics of a Dismal Institution,” !��“Labor Market Experiences in Transition Countries and Their Impact on Attitudes,” with Simon

Commander and Helena Schweiger, 4��%��“Happiness and the Wealth of Nations: How Cursed Do They Feel by Their Resources?” with

Rabah Arezki, 4��%��“Recalculating the Transport and Insurance Cost of Albanian Merchandise Imports” (in Alb.)

with Argita Frasheri, 6��%��&��:��)$��*++;

��"��, International Economics, University of Maryland, Spring 2005 – Spring 2007/��&��, International Economics, University of Maryland, Fall 2004 /��&��, Economics of Money & Banking, University of Maryland, Fall 2003, Spring

2004 ��5��

��&��)�IMF Institute, International Monetary Fund,�Washington D.C., July 2008 – present

��, Africa Finance and Private Sector Development Unit, World Bank, Washington D.C., May – July 2008�

��&��, Research Department, International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C., January – April 2008

��&�� , Office of the Chief Economist, European Bank for Reconstruction & Development, London, April – October 2007

��&��, Urban Institute, Washington D.C., #�� <&��*++='��)�Balance of Payments Unit, Bank of Albania, Tirana, Albania, March 2002 – July 2003 :��$��)Albanian Community Health Organization, Tirana, Albania, May 2001 –

March 2002 ��

2

��Graduate Assistantship, Department of Economics, University of Maryland, 2003-2007�Office of the Prime Minister Scholarship, Ankara, Turkey, 1996-2000

��Prof. Peter Murrell University of Maryland [email protected] 301-405-3476Prof. Ingmar Prucha University of Maryland [email protected] 301-405-3499Dr. Amadou Sy International Monetary Fund [email protected] 202-623-8651

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This paper explores the relationship between income, aspirations, and life satisfaction in post-transition Russia. It is widely assumed that as income increases, social comparison and adaptation contribute to higher income aspirations, which in turn mitigate the effect of income increases on life satisfaction. This process is believed to be the cause behind the flat relationship in time between income and happiness in industrialized countries. On the other hand, studies ontransition countries show that life satisfaction has increased in time parallel to real income, especially during the early years of transition, indicating that in these countries the response patterns of life satisfaction are significantly different from those in industrialized countries.

This paper first explores the channels through which adaptation and social comparison contribute to higher income aspirations. The results show that social comparison is a strong agent in shaping aspirations, while the effect of adaptation is relatively weak. Subsequently, the paper tests for the effect of aspirations on two separate satisfaction indices, satisfaction with life andsatisfaction with economic conditions. The paper uses a Chamberlain random-effects ordered probit estimation to control for time-invariant unobservable individual traits. In contrast to previous studies, the results suggest that increases in aspirations have a positive effect on life satisfaction. This paper argues that this is caused by the expectations contained in income aspirations. Higher aspirations reflect an increase in needs commensurate to changes in own and others' income, but they also reflect improved income expectations based on the information provided by the present income of relevant others. The improved outlook embedded in the higher income aspirations causes the latter to have a positive effect on life satisfaction. This suggests that, ten years into the transition process, the reaction patterns of life satisfaction in Russia differ substantially from those in developed countries.

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��Primary: International Finance Secondary: Macroeconomics, Econometrics

��“The Relation between Country Risk Premium and Real Exchange Rate under various FX

regimes,” Job Market Paper “The Impact of Macroeconomic Announcement on Real Time Foreign Exchange Rate in

Emerging Markets,” (with Fang Cai and Zhiwei Zhang), International Finance Discussion Papers (973), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, May 2009.

Presentation: EFMA (European Finance and Management Association) 2009 Annual Meetings

Presentation: (with Fang Cai) Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Washington, DC, August 2008

“A Parametric Approach to Developing an Early Warning System for ASEAN+3 Countries” Asian Development Bank (ADB), Regional Technical Assistance 5986, December 2002

“An Analysis of KOSPI200 Option Market Using GARCH and Implied Volatility Model,” (Korean language) Seoul National University, 2000

��/�� &��, University of Maryland: Econometrics II, 2010, Principles of

Microeconomics, 2009, Graduate Computer Lab Assistant, 2005-2007.

��5�� &��)International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC, 2007-2008 Exchange Rate Issues Division, Research Department

Project: The Impact of Macroeconomic Announcement on Real Time Foreign Exchange Rate in Emerging Markets Project: Can Demand from China Shield East Asian Economies from Global Slowdown? Project: China’s Exporters and Importers: Firms, Products, and Trade Partners

� ?��&�� )Tong Yang Investment Bank, Seoul, Korea, 2002-2004 Research Center� &�� , Korea Center for International Finance, Seoul, Korea, 2000-2002

Early Warning System Team for financial crises

��Jacob K. Goldhaber Award, for travel to conference, 2009. Graduate Assistantship, University of Maryland, 2005-2007, 2009-2010.

H.S. Joo-Page 2

��Prof. Carlos Vegh Prof. Anton Korinek Prof. Pablo D’Erasmo Department of Economics Department of Economics Department of Economics University of Maryland University of Maryland University of Maryland College Park, MD 20742 [email protected]

College Park, MD [email protected]


(301) 405-3546 (301) 405-4536 (301) 405-3529

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This paper analyzes the relation between country risk premium and real exchange rate among various exchange regimes. I find out that the correlation of risk premium changes and real exchange rate is bigger under the flexible regime than fixed regime while previous works concentrate on the level of risk premium and welfare implications only. I analyze this problem with the friction in the asset market where only a fraction of agents participate in asset market transaction and using bonus as a risk pooling tool intertemporally. Under this friction, the increase of world interest rate positively affects on the consumption of foreign asset holders due to the wealth effects, and transferred into non-asset holders via monetary channel under the fixed regime. However, the monetary channel is disconnected under flexible regime where government intervenes money supply, and risk pooling effect of a bonus is nullified. As a result, the correlation between the change of risk premium and that of real exchange rate is lower under the fixed regime as well as the level of risk premium itself. Compared with flexible regime where government adopts inflation target, the correlation is smaller, but still lower under fixed regime. Finally, I show that the welfare level under fixed regime is higher than under flexible regimes.

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This paper utilizes a unique high-frequency database to measure how exchange rates in nine emerging markets react to macroeconomic news in the U.S. and domestic economies from 2000 to 2006. We find that major U.S. macroeconomic news have a strong impact on the returns and volatilities of emerging market exchange rates, but many domestic news do not. Emerging market currencies have become more sensitive to U.S. news in recent years. We also find that market sentiment could sway the impact of news on these currencies systematically, as good (bad) news seems to matter more when optimism (pessimism) prevails. Market uncertainty also interacts with macroeconomic news in a statistically significant way, but its role varies across currencies and news.

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��3105 Tydings Hall, Department of Economics

University of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD 20742Mobile: 301 613 5614

E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.econ.umd.edu/~lara

� ��Ph. D Economics, University of Maryland at College Park, May 2011 (expected)

Certificate in Population Studies, University of Maryland College Park, May 2010M.A. Economics, University of Maryland at College Park, Dec 2008B.A. Economics ($��BUniversidad de las Américas, Puebla, Mexico, July 2004��

�� !��'��$��!��Committee: Prof. Melissa Kearney (Chair), Prof. Mark Duggan, Prof. Judy Hellerstein

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Primary: Public Economics, Labor EconomicsSecondary: Applied Microeconomics, Behavioral Economics

�� “Pension reforms and the incentives to save: Lessons from Mexico”, #��$��%��

Presented at the 2011 WEAI Conference in Portland, OR, June 2010; and at the C/(

International Graduate Student Conference, East-West Center, Honolulu, HI. February 2010.

“Information framing and retirement management decisions. An experimental study from Mexico.” ��%��

“Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Mexico”. Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 17, Trade and International Integration, The World Bank. December 2007 (co-authored with I. Soloaga).

“The Human Development Index as a determinant of migration in Mexico: a gravity model approach”. Support document for the (��!�� $�� *++=�*++D�Mexico. United Nations Development Programme (co-authored with I. Soloaga).

0Bolivia.” in .��/��E��3/�� "�� "��9��1��. Bernard M. Hoekman and Marcelo Olarreaga (eds.) Brookings InstitutionPress, July 2007 (co-authored with I. Soloaga).

“Determinantes de la migración en México: un enfoque de econometría espacial” (Synthesis) in *F�G��!��'��$H��. Estudios Económicos y Sociopolíticos. Banco Nacional de México, S.A. 2004 (co-authored with I. Soloaga).Presented in the 9th LACEA Meeting (Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association), San José, Costa Rica, November 2004.

��"��)Economic Statistics, University of Maryland, Summer 2008, Summer 2009./��&��) Independent Honors Study, University of Maryland, Fall 2007 and Spring 2008./�� &��) Introduction to Microeconomics, University of Maryland, Fall 2006 and Spring 2007./�� &��) Econometrics I, II, III for the Master’s degree in Economics at the Universidad de las Américas, Puebla. Fall 2004 - Fall 2005

��

Gabriel Lara-Ibarra – p.2

��5��at the World Bank, Development Research Group, May - August 2009.��&��for Professor Melissa Kearney June 2008 - August 2009.#�� for a Microsimulations project to evaluate “Oportunidades”, “Liconsa” and “Diconsa” social programs, Institute of Public Policy and Development Studies, January 2005 –June 2006.#�� for the review of the chapter on Agriculture and Migration in Mexico, UDLAP-FAO’s project “Roles of Agriculture.” June – December 2004

��&�� for the Project “Roles of Agriculture.” UDLAP-FAO Project, May – August2003.

��:#��5�.��/��&��)University of Maryland, February 2010.��'�� )University of Maryland, College Park, 2009 – 2010.!�� )Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, 2009-2010./��)Maryland Population Research Center, University of Maryland, 2008-2009..��&��)University of Maryland, 2006 – 2008.�:E&�I/'��) Sciences and Technology National Council, México, 2006 - present�Jenkins '��, UDLAP, Fall 1999 – Spring 2004.

��Prof. Melissa Kearney University of Maryland [email protected] 202-536-8878Prof. Mark Duggan University of Maryland [email protected] 301-405-3532Prof. Judy Hellerstein University of Maryland [email protected] 301-405-3545

��"30��"��'��39��$��2 [Job Market Paper]

This paper investigates the effect of the introduction of tax free retirement accounts on the savings behavior of Mexican households. The paper contributes empirical evidence to the debate about whether preferential tax treatment is an effective policy tool to encourage household savings. The empirical strategy of the paper is a difference-in-difference approach that utilizesan arguably exogenous change in access to tax free accounts for a well-defined set of workers. The data provide evidence of heterogeneous effects across demographic subgroups and acrossquantiles of the savings distribution that accord with predictions of a standard model of savings behavior. In particular, the data show an increase in the savings rate of treated workers in the year following the introduction of the accounts. The effect is driven by prime age workers and by high income workers. Among prime age workers, the lower savers experience the largest effects of the policy change. I perform multiple robustness checks on these findings, including propensity score matching models and tests for potential confounding factors such as changes in retirement accounts’ returns or fees, or changes in workers’ income.

��""30"��&�� $��2I analyze whether the framing of information about the performance of Pension FundsAdministrators affects the retirement management decisions of Mexican workers. I conduct a survey to collect information on recommendations for Fund Administrator choice made by Mexican workers when faced with randomly framed scenarios. The scenarios feature framingbased on choice avoidance and framing exploiting loss aversion. These features have not been used previously in the retirement management literature.

��Citizenship: Mexican (F-1 Visa)Gender: MaleLanguages: Spanish (native), English (advanced), French (basic)

XUE LI 4307 Rowalt Drive, Apt. 103

College Park, MD 20740 Phone: (301) 222-7615

Email: [email protected]: www.econ.umd.edu/~li-x

EDUCATION Ph.D. Economics, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, expected May 2011

M.A. Economics, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, December 2007 M.A. Economics, Peking University, Beijing, China, 2004 B.A. International Economics, Nankai University, Tianjin, China, 2001

DISSERTATION Part I. “Why Is the Sex Ratio Unbalanced in China? The Role of the One-Child Policy, Underdeveloped Social Insurance and Parental Expectations” Part II. “Risky Child Investment, Fertility and Social Insurance in China”

Committee: Prof. John Rust (Chair), Prof. Ginger Jin, Prof. Pablo D’Erasmo

FIELDS OF SPECIALIZATION Primary: Demographic Economics, Public Finance Secondary: Development Economics, Labor Economics

PAPERS “Why Is the Sex Ratio Unbalanced in China? The Role of the One-Child Policy, Underdeveloped

Social Insurance and Parental Expectations,” Job Market Paper “Risky Child Investment, Fertility and Social Insurance in China,” November 2009 “International Trade, Foreign Direct Investment and Wage Inequality in China,” 2007

RESEARCH/WORK EXPERIENCE Summer Intern, International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C., Summer 2010

Projects: “Investment in Human Capital: the Effects of Health Spending on Mortality Rates” “The Impact of Misallocation of Resources on Total Factor Productivity”

Consultant, MNSED, The World Bank, Washington D.C., February-May 2010 Project: “Poverty Assessment for the West Bank and Gaza Strip”

Consultant, DECPI, The World Bank, Washington D.C., April-May 2010 Project: “Average and Marginal Returns to Upper Secondary Schooling in Indonesia”

Research Assistant, Interindustry Forecasting Project at University of Maryland (INFORUM), 2006-2009. Enhanced and maintained a dynamic macro-econometric input-output model of China. Improved import forecasts in the US-China bilateral trade model. Estimated import and export in LIFT (Long-term Interindustry Forecasting Tool) model for the US economy.

Research Assistant, China Center for Economic Research, Peking University, China, 2002-2004 Project: “Income Convergence and Migration in China”

TEACHING EXPERIENCE Teaching Assistant, Money and Banking, University of Maryland, Fall 2005

AWARDS Graduate Assistantship, University of Maryland, 2005-2009 Graduate Fellowship, University of Maryland, 2004-2005 Award for Excellent Students in Science and Engineering, Tianjin City, 2000 University First-Class Scholarships, Nankai University, 1998, 1999 and 2000

Xue Li-Page 2

REFERENCES Prof. John Rust University of Maryland [email protected] (301) 405-3489 Prof. Ginger Jin University of Maryland [email protected] (301) 405-3484 Prof. Pablo D’Erasmo University of Maryland [email protected] (301) 405-3529

THESIS ABSTRACT Part I. “Why Is the Sex Ratio Unbalanced in China? The Role of the One-Child Policy, Underdeveloped Social Insurance and Parental Expectations” (Job Market Paper)

The gender imbalance in China has reached such alarming levels that, by 2020, men of marriageable age are estimated to outnumber women by 30 million. This paper develops a calibrated overlapping generational model to examine this rising sex ratio by sorting out three perspectives in tandem: the one-child policy, the social insurance program and parental expectation. I apply a dynamic fertility choice framework in which family planning policies impose the fertility quota and define the decision making structure. Couples when making fertility choices, including whether to “abort-and-reconceive,” are motivated by better returns to investing in a son than in a daughter, with and without social insurance. I also consider the largely overlooked question of expected sex imbalances on current fertility choices. In particular, the increased chance that a son may not be able to marry when there is a significant surplus of males may reduce a preference for sons for altruistic reasons.

The benchmark calibrations demonstrate that moving to a one-and-half-child policy (second allowed if the first is a girl) would dramatically decrease the sex ratio at birth by 10-26%. If parents are adaptive and take the “can-not-marry” risk into consideration then the sex ratio will drop by around 9-20% under the one-child policy. The model also predicts that the sex ratio changes by only a small amount when social insurance is universal, which suggests that most son preference occurs for cultural/dynastic reasons, not because sons are a substitute for an underdeveloped social insurance system. The comparative statics results under heterogeneous incomes and alternative parameter settings confirm that the model captures the cross-sectional distribution of fertility choices reasonably well. I also investigate the equilibrium sex ratio when couples are fully rational and forward-looking. Comparison between the steady state and current level shows that if all couple were forward-looking, the sex ratio would fall. This suggests that publicity and education could help alleviate the sex imbalance problem in China. In a similar spirit, I consider the issue of endogenizing transfers from children: in an infinite-horizon dynastic model, the equilibrium level of transfer is around 12% on average, which is lower than the value estimated in the above calibration.

Part II. “Risky Child Investment, Fertility and Social Insurance in China”This paper investigates the quantitative effect of social insurance on the total fertility rate and on intergenerational transfers from adult children to elderly parents in an environment where investment in children is risky. Social insurance’s effect is heterogeneous depending on people’s position in the income distribution: a rise in labor income will significantly reduce the fertility rate and increase the old-age transfer, especially for low income people; the magnitude of this effect is also sensitive to the attention children place on parents and their expected long-run economic growth. My results do not support idea that social insurance as a source of support in old-age decreases fertility, as argued in Boldrin, et al (2005). Social insurance, acting through income and price effects, actually increases the fertility of low-income people, while slightly decreasing it for those with higher incomes. An increase in the social insurance tax rate increases the fertility rate by only a trivial amount.

PERSONAL INFORMATION Nationality: China (F-1 Visa) Gender: Female Languages: Chinese (native), English (fluent)

ALESSANDRO ORFEI 2445 Lyttonsville Rd., Apt. 917

Silver Spring, MD, 20910 Phone: (202) 258-0336

Email: [email protected] Website: www.econ.umd.edu/~orfei

EDUCATION

Ph.D. Economics, University of Maryland at College Park, expected May 2011 A.B. Economics (Honors), University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, June 2002

DISSERTATION Essays on Female Empowerment and Its Health Consequences in West Africa Committee: Prof. Maureen Cropper (Co-Chair), Prof. Jeanne Lafortune (Co-Chair), Prof.

Raymond Guiteras

FIELDS OF SPECIALIZATION Primary: Development Economics Secondary: Economics of Institutions, Political Economy

PAPERS “The Impact of Female Empowerment on Male Extramarital Sexual Behavior: Evidence from

West Africa” Job Market Paper “Kin Support, Female Bargaining Power, and Child Survival” work in progress, University of

Maryland

TEACHING EXPERIENCE Instructor, Methods and Tools for Economic Analysis, University of Maryland, Spring 2008, Fall

2008, and Spring 2009. Teaching Assistant, Methods and Tools for Economic Analysis, University of Maryland, Fall

2007. Teaching Assistant, Principles of Microeconomics, University of Maryland, Spring 2007. Teaching Assistant, Intermediate Microeconomic Theory, University of Maryland, Spring 2006. Teaching Assistant, Econometrics I, University of Maryland, Fall 2005, Fall 2006. RESEARCH/WORK EXPERIENCE Consultant, World Bank, January 2010 – July 2010. Project: Evaluation of World Bank Group operations targeting environmental institutions

and governance. Team made recommendations for future Bank involvement in this area for the 2010 Environment Strategy.

Research Analyst, Economic Analysis Group, Antitrust Division, Department of Justice, September 2002 – May 2005.

Research Assistant, Prof. Melissa Roderick, University of Chicago, June 2001 – August 2002. Project: Program evaluation of Chicago Public Schools remedial education program. AWARDS

Graduate Assistantship, University of Maryland, 2005 – 2009 Robert C. Byrd Honors Scholarship, 1999 – 2002

Alessandro Orfei – Page 2 REFERENCES

Prof. Maureen Cropper Prof. Jeanne Lafortune Prof. Raymond Guiteras Department of Economics Department of Economics Department of Economics University of Maryland University of Maryland University of Maryland College Park, MD 20742 [email protected]



(301) 405-3483 (301) 405-3548 (301) 405-3266

THESIS ABSTRACT Part I. “The Impact of Female Empowerment on Male Extramarital Sexual Behavior: Evidence from West

Africa” [Job market paper]

Improving women's bargaining power to negotiate safer sex with their partner is widely seen as fundamental to reducing women's vulnerability to HIV infection, although little causal evidence has been provided. This paper uses exogenous variation in a determinant of female bargaining power, women's kin support, to identify the causal effect of women's empowerment on men's extramarital sexual behavior. I establish the relevance of kin support shocks for measures of bargaining power such as women's reported decision-making authority over major and daily household purchases, women's healthcare, and household cooking decisions. Reduced form estimates indicate that having one more adult male sibling alive leads to a decrease of 1.3 percent in the probability of her husband's extramarital behavior. However, the number of living adult female siblings does not influence her husband's behavior. A measure of shocks to kin support, captured by the death of a woman's young siblings, is shown to increase her husband's extramarital behavior. The kin support measures are balanced across observables and results are robust to excluding households in which women's relatives reside, as well as alternate definitions of the kin support measures. This suggests that a woman's bargaining power within the household does influence the likelihood of her husband’s extramarital sexual behavior, and thus her risk of contracting a sexually transmitted disease.

Part II. “Kin Support, Female Bargaining Power, and Child Survival”

It is often argued that child health improves when mothers have more household bargaining power than fathers, but this finding may often be confounded by factors simultaneously affecting household formation. This paper considers the effect of a change in the relative bargaining weights of parents on infant mortality in a given family. Mother’s bargaining power, captured by a relative measure of living maternal versus paternal adult brothers, is shown to positively impact women’s reported decision-making over household expenditures. However, utilizing only variation across children born to the same mother, I find that the size of the kinship network of the mother at the time of birth has a similar impact on infant mortality as that of the father’s network. Interestingly, I find that the presence of both an additional maternal or paternal uncle decreases infant mortality by 0.6 percent, but maternal or paternal aunts do not appear to have a significant effect. This suggests that both mother and father’s kin contribute to reducing infant mortality and this effect functions principally through male kin.

PERSONAL INFORMATION Nationality: U.S. Gender: Male Language Skills: English (native), Italian (advanced)

RONG QIAN 1444 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Apt. 219

Washington, DC 20005 Mobile: (301) 792-7859

Email: [email protected] Website: www.econ.umd.edu/~qian

EDUCATION Ph.D. Economics, University of Maryland at College Park, expected May 2011 M.A. Economics, University of Maryland at College Park, 2008 B.A. Computer Science, Universidad del Salvador, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 2005 B.A. Economics (summa cum laude), Universidad del CEMA, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 2004

DISSERTATION

Part I. “Why Do Some Countries Default More Often than Others? The Role of Institutions” Part II. “On Graduation from Default, Inflation and Banking Crisis: Elusive or Illusion?”

Committee: Prof. Carmen Reinhart (co-Chair), Prof. Carlos Vegh (co-Chair), Prof. Enrique Mendoza, Prof. Pablo D’Erasmo

FIELDS OF SPECIALIZATION

Primary: International Finance, Macroeconomics Secondary: Political Economy, Computational Economics

PAPERS

“Why Do Some Countries Default More Often than Others? The Role of Institutions” Job market paper. “On Graduation from Default, Inflation and Banking Crises: Elusive or Illusion?” with Carmen

Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff. in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2010, Volume 25. National Bureau of Economic Research.

Presentations: NBER Macroeconomics Annual Conference 2010; LACEA Conference 2010, Colombia

“Why Is China’s Saving Rate So High? A Comparative Study of Cross-Country Panel Data,” with Juann H. Hung. Forthcoming CESifo Conference Volume 2010

“An Empirical Assessment of the Effect of Fiscal Policy on the Public Borrowing Cost,” with Lorenzo Forni and Emre Alper, work in Progress, Fiscal Affairs Division, IMF.

TEACHING EXPERIENCE Visiting Scholar, Topics in International Finance, Univeridad del CEMA Argentina, August 2009,

March 2008 Instructor, Intermediate Macroeconomics, University of Maryland, Summer 2008 Teaching Assistant, Principle of Macroeconomics, University of Maryland, Fall 2007, Spring

2008 Teaching Assistant, Intermediate Macroeconomics, University of Maryland, Fall 2008, Spring

2009 RESEARCH/WORK EXPERIENCE Summer Intern, International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C., Summer 2010

Project: “An Empirical Assessment of the Effect of Fiscal Policy on the Public Borrowing Cost,” Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF

Summer Associate, U.S. Congressional Budget Office, Washington D.C., Summer 2009 Project: “Why Is China’s Saving Rate So High? A Comparative Study of Cross-Country Panel Data,” Macroeconomics Division, CBO

Rong Qian - Page 2 AWARDS Graduate Assistantship, University of Maryland, 2007-present Graduate Fellowship, University of Maryland, 2006

Graduate Fellowship, Universidad San Andres, Argentina, 2005

PUBLICATION “On Graduation from Default, Inflation and Banking Crises: Elusive or Illusion?” with Carmen

Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff. in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2010, Volume 25. National Bureau of Economic Research.

REFERENCES

Prof. Carmen Reinhart University of Maryland [email protected] (202) 288-2755 Prof. Carlos Vegh University of Maryland [email protected] (301) 405-3495 Dr. Juann H. Hung Congressional Budget Office [email protected] (202) 226-2759

THESIS ABSTRACT

Part I: “Why Do Some Countries Default More Often than Others? The Role of Institutions” [Job market paper]

This paper documents cross-country differences in sovereign default crises and institutional quality using a data set covering more than 80 countries. Two key facts emerge from the analysis: (1) high institutional quality is associated with low occurrence of sovereign default crisis, and (2) in particular, polarized governments are associated with higher sovereign default probabilities. To explain these facts, we develop a model that links government polarization to sovereign default crises. A polarized government defaults more often on its external debt because government parties fail to coordinate and suboptimal debt policy results. Simulations of the model succeed in explaining qualitatively and quantitatively cross-country differences in sovereign default frequencies, given differences in the degree of government polarization.

Part II: On Graduation from Default, Inflation and Banking Crises: Elusive or Illusion?” (with Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff)

This paper uses a data set covering over two hundred years of sovereign debt, banking and inflation crises to explore the question of how long it take a country to “graduate” from the typical pattern of serial crises that most emerging markets experience. We find that for default and inflation crises, twenty years is a significant period, but the distribution of recidivism has extremely fat tails. In the case of banking crises, it is unclear whether countries ever graduate. We also examine the more recent phenomenon of IMF programs, which sometimes result in “near misses” but sometimes end in default even after a program is instituted. The paper raises the important theoretical question of why countries experience serial default, and how they might graduate.

PERSONAL INFORMATION Nationality: Argentina (F-1 VISA) Gender: Female Language Skills: Spanish (native), Chinese (native), English (fluent), French (intermediate).

GIORGO SERTSIOS 3409 Tulane Dr., Apt. 33, Hyattsville, MD 20742

Mobile: (301) 675-9369Email: [email protected]

Website: www.econ.umd.edu/~sertsios/

EDUCATIONPh.D. Economics, University of Maryland at College Park, expected May 2011.M.A. Economics, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, 2004.B.A. Magna Cum Laude, Business and Economics, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile,

2002.

DISSERTATION Essays on Business Economics. Committee: Prof. Roger Betancourt (Co-Chair), Prof. Gordon Phillips (Co-Chair), Prof. Ginger

Jin, Prof. Emel Filiz-Ozbay.

FIELDS OF SPECIALIZATIONPrimary: Industrial Organization, Corporate Finance Secondary: Economics of Retailing

PAPERS AND PUBLICATIONS “Investment Requirements in Franchise Contracts as a Self-Enforcing Device: Theory and

Evidence” Job market paper No1. To be presented at the Southern Economic Association Conference, November 2010.

“How Do Firm Financial Conditions Affect Product Quality and Pricing?” (with Gordon Phillips)Job market paper No2. Presented at the Transatlantic Doctoral conference, London Business

School, May 2010. To be presented at the Southern Economic Association conference, November 2010, and at the American Finance Association meeting, January 2011.

“Can the Design of a Sport Contest Affect its Attendance?” Latin American Journal of Economics (Cuadernos de Economía), 2007, vol 44, pp. 59-89. (Published in Spanish as: “¿Puede el Diseño de un Torneo Deportivo Afectar su Asistencia?”)

WORK IN PROGRESS “Capital Infusion and Product Introduction: Evidence from the Health Care Industry,” with G.

Hoberg and G. Phillips.

AWARDS Academic Excellence Award, M.A., Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, 2004.First Place, Chilean National Undergraduate Thesis contest for Business and Economics Majors, 2003.Raul Yver Award (highest GPA, B.A., major in Economics), Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, 2002.

TEACHING EXPERIENCE Instructor, Industrial Organization, University of Maryland, Summer 2009-present.

Instructor, Econometrics, Game Theory and Applied Mathematics, Universidad de los Andes, Fall 2005-Spring 2007.

Graduate Teaching Assistant, Econometric Theory and Labor Economics, Pontificia Universidad Católica, Fall 2003-Spring 2004.

Teaching Assistant, Principles of Microeconomics, Macroeconomic Policy, Advanced Microeconomics, Industrial Organization, Intermediate Macroeconomics, Pontificia Universidad Católica, Fall 2001-Spring 2004.

G. Sertsios-Page 2

RESEARCH/WORK EXPERIENCE Researcher, Universidad de los Andes, Chile, June 2005-June 2007.Revenue Analyst, Department of Revenue Management and Pricing, LAN Airlines, Santiago,

Chile, August 2004-June 2005.

REFERENCES Prof. Roger Betancourt Prof. Gordon Phillips Prof. Ginger Zhe JinDepartment of Economics Finance Department, R. H.

Smith School of BusinessDepartment of Economics

University of Maryland University of Maryland University of MarylandCollege Park, MD 20742 College Park, MD 20742 College Park, MD [email protected] [email protected] [email protected](301) 405-3479 (301) 405-0347 (301) 405-3484

THESIS ABSTRACT Part I “Investment Requirements in Franchise Contracts as a Self-Enforcing Device: Theory and Evidence.”

In a setting in which franchisees that operate under a common brand name have incentives to free-ride on each other's sales effort, we examine how a franchisor uses investment requirements as a tool to reduce franchisees' underprovision of sales effort. Theoretically, we show that if the franchisor's reputation is highly important the franchisor asks for higher investment requirements when penalizing a misbehaving franchise is more difficult (weaker law enforcement) and when directly monitoring franchisees is more costly. We empirically test the theoretical predictions using two datasets at the franchisor level. We measure weak law enforcement using the passing of state level good-cause termination/nonrenewal laws for franchise contracts and we measure monitoring costs using the number of states in which a franchisor operates. Using a database that contains information for 279 franchisors, before and after the laws were passed in some states, we find that the passing of the laws implied an incremental 2% increase in investment requirements for franchisors located in states where the laws were passed. Using a large database (10,047 franchisor-year observations), posterior to the passing of the laws, we find that franchisors located in states where good-cause termination/nonrenewal laws were passed ask for investment requirements 4.8% higher than franchisors located in states without such laws, and that when a franchisor expands its operations to an additional state it increases investment requirements by 0.64%.

Part II. “How Do Firm Financial Conditions Affect Product Quality and Pricing?” (with G. Phillips)

We analyze the interaction of firm product quality and pricing decisions with financial distress and bankruptcy in the airline industry. We consider an airline's choices of quality and price as dynamic decisions that trade off current cash flows for future revenue. We examine how mishandled baggage, on-time performance and pricing are related to financial distress and bankruptcy, controlling for the endogeneity of financial distress and bankruptcy. We find that an airline's quality and pricing decisions are differentially affected by financial distress and bankruptcy. Product quality decreases when airlines are in financial distress, consistent with financial distress reducing a firm's incentive to invest in quality. In addition, firms price more aggressively when in financial distress consistent with them trying to increase short-term market share and revenues. In contrast, in bankruptcy product quality increases relative to financial distress.

PERSONAL INFORMATION

Nationality: Chilean/Greek (J-1 VISA). Gender: Male Language Skills: Spanish (native), English (fluent), French (basic).

�� 3406 Tulane Drive, Apt. 13, Hyattsville, MD, 20783

Mobile: +1 (240) 481-3398 Email: [email protected] Website: www.econ.umd.edu/~sunel�

��

Ph.D. Economics, University of Maryland at College Park, expected May 2011 M.A. Economics, University of Maryland at College Park, 2008 B.A. Economics (Major, Honors), Bilkent University, Ankara, Turkey, 2006

�� Essays on the Distributional and Welfare Consequences of Inflation in Emerging Economies Committee: Prof. Pablo D’Erasmo (Co-Chair), Prof. Enrique Mendoza (Co-Chair), Prof. Carlos

Vegh

��Primary: International Economics, Macroeconomics Secondary: Monetary Economics, Computational Economics

��“On Inflation, Wealth Inequality and Welfare in Emerging Economies” Job Market Paper Presentation: Invited to the 15th Annual LACEA meeting, Universidad de Antioquia and Universidad Eafit, Medellín, Colombia, November 11th-13th, 2010. Presentation: Society for Computational Economics 16th CEF Conference, City University of London, London, UK, July 2010.

Presentation: Society for the Study of Emerging Markets Euro Conference, Milas, Turkey, July 2010.

Presentation:Canadian Economic Association Annual Conference, Quebec, May 2010. Presentation: Midwest Macroeconomics Meetings, MSU, East Lansing, MI, May 2010.Presentation: Central Bank of Republic of Turkey, Ankara, Turkey, August 2009.

“Transitional Dynamics of Disinflation in a Small Open Economy with Heterogeneous Agents”work in progress

�� Instructor, Intermediate Macroeconomic Analysis, University of Maryland, Summer 2008,

Winter 2009, Summer 2009, Winter 2010. Teaching Assistant, University of Maryland: Intermediate Macroeconomic Theory and Policy,

Fall 2007, Spring 2010; Intermediate Macroeconomic Analysis, Spring 2008, Fall 2008, Spring 2009, Fall 2009.

��5�� Research Assistant, Prof. Enrique Mendoza, University of Maryland, August 2009-present.

��Best Student Papers Award for Presentation at the 15th Annual LACEA Meeting, Nov., 2010. Jacob K. Goldhaber Award for conference travel, Summer 2010. University of Maryland Economics Department Travel Grant-Spring 2010. Golden Key International Honour Society Membership, 2008-present.Graduate Assistantship, University of Maryland, 2007-present. Graduate Fellowship, University of Maryland, 2006-2007. Undergraduate Fellowship, Bilkent University, 2002-2006.

� Ranked 48th out of 1.5 Million in the National University Entry Exam of Turkey, 2002

Enes Sunel – Page 2

�� Prof. Pablo D’Erasmo University of Maryland [email protected] (301) 405-3529 � Prof. Enrique Mendoza University of Maryland [email protected] (301) 405-3548

Prof. Carlos Vegh University of Maryland [email protected] (301) 405-3546

��Part I. “On Inflation, Wealth Inequality and Welfare in Emerging Economies” (Main Chapter)

Evidence shows that among 84 emerging and developing economies, the median decline in the average annual inflation rate in the period 1995-2008 (relative to the preceding two decades) is about 50%. This paper undertakes a quantitative investigation of the distributional and welfare consequences of a reduction in inflation in a Bewley-style monetary model of a small open economy. Consumers face idiosyncratic earnings risk and hold (i) non-interest bearing real balances that economize transactions costs of consumption and (ii) internationally-traded risk-free bonds that are useful for consumption smoothing. Motivated by the fact that emerging economies display a high degree of financial dollarization, bonds are modeled as fully dollarized so that their return does not respond to domestic inflation. Analytical results for deterministic economies show that redistribution driven by alternative fiscal responses to monetary policy might create asymmetric wealth effects, apart from the classical wealth-eroding and consumption-distorting effects of inflation. To that end, the stochastic model is calibrated using Turkish data and used to compare stationary equilibria at different rates of inflation under alternative fiscal arrangements: (i) If fiscal policy responds to changes in seigniorage revenues by adjusting uniform lump-sum transfers, reducing the (quarterly) inflation rate from 10% to 0% lowers aggregate welfare by 2.7% in terms of compensating consumption variation. This is because the inflation tax incidence of the poor is less than transfers, and, when inflation is high, lump-sum transfers create positive wealth effects in favor of the poor. (ii) If fiscal policy responds to changes in seigniorage revenues by adjusting wasteful spending, reducing the inflation rate from 10% to 0% increases aggregate welfare by 2.5% in terms of compensating consumption variation. This is because the asymmetric wealth effects are muted when transfers are constant. (iii) Finally, if fiscal policy responds to changes in seigniorage revenues by adjusting transfers that are in proportion to individual-specific inflation tax payments, reducing the inflation rate from 10% to 0% increases aggregate welfare by 1.5% in terms of compensating consumption variation. Even if all costs of inflation are rebated in an individual-specific way, disinflation lowers aggregate welfare, since the substitution effect reduces the bonds demand and the interest income. These results hold, eventhe model generated financial portfolio of the poor is biased towards non-interest bearing assets.

Part II. “Transitional Dynamics of Disinflation in a Small Open Economy with Heterogeneous Agents”

This paper examines the quantitative properties of the transitional dynamics produced by permanent changes in the inflation rate in an incomplete-markets, heterogeneous-agents model of a small open economy. I assume that fiscal policy responds to monetary policy by adjusting uniform lump-sum transfers, creating asymmetric wealth effects in favor of the poor when inflation is high. Steady state comparisons show that a reduction in the (quarterly) inflation rate from 10% to 2% lowers aggregate welfare by 1.97% in terms of compensating consumption variation. However, when the transition is properly accounted for, aggregate welfare is reduced by only 0.05%. This is because transfers are assumed to plummet immediately in the former exercise, whereas the gradual increase in aggregate money demand along the transition causes transfers to temporarily rise before settling down to a lower level. This offsets the disadvantage of the poor.

��Nationality: Turkish (F-1 VISA), Gender: Male Language Skills: Turkish (native), English (fluent).

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�� 6022 Westchester Park Dr. Apt. 201

College Park, MD 20740 (301) 254-4470

Email: [email protected] Website: http://econweb.umd.edu/~walker

� ��Ph.D. Economics, University of Maryland at College Park, expected May 2011 M.A. Economics, American University, Washington, DC, May 2004 B.S. Business Administration (summa cum laude), Florida A&M University, April 2002

��

The Effects of the Incarceration of Fathers on the Health and Economic Welfare of Mothers and Children

Committee: Prof. Judith Hellerstein (Co-Chair), Prof. John Ham (Co-Chair), Prof. Soohyung Lee

�� Primary: Labor Economics Secondary: Public Economics

�� “The Effect of the Incarceration of Fathers on the Economic Wellbeing of Mothers,” Job Market

Paper.“The Effect of the Incarceration of Fathers on the Physical and Mental Health of Mothers,” work

in progress.

�� Teaching Assistant, Principles of Microeconomics, Fall 2010.

Research Assistant, Professor Judith Hellerstein, University of Maryland, Summer 2008. Teaching Assistant, Econometrics, AEA Summer Program at Duke University, Summer 2006. Research Assistant, National Urban League Policy Institute, Spring 2003.

Conducted quantitative and analytical research on the topics of education, public assistance programs, and unemployment trends in urban communities.

Teaching Assistant, Principles of Macroeconomics, American University, Fall 2002–Spring 2003.

��Undergraduate Academic Advisor, Department of Economics, University of Maryland,

Fall 2006–Spring 2010. Data Analyst Intern, U.S. Census Bureau, Labor Force Statistics Branch, Summer 2009.

Demographic Directorate Internship Program participant. Evaluated the quality of labor force data from the American Community Survey in preparation for public data release. Conducted a team research project profiling the socioeconomic characteristics of the foreign born population.

Instructor, Intermediate Microeconomics, University of Maryland, Summer 2009. Teacher, Mathematics, Gateway High School, St. Louis, MO, Fall 2005–Spring 2006. Designed and taught courses in Algebra, Advanced Algebra, Trigonometry and Calculus. Rated highly on all performance categories in annual teacher evaluation report.

Instructor, Principles of Microeconomics, Florida A&M University, Summer 2004

Sheri Pruitt Walker – Page 2 ��6�� Dr. James W. Longest Memorial Award for Social Science Research, University of Maryland, Spring 2010.

Jacob K. Goldhaber Award, for travel to conference, Fall 2009. Graduate Assistantship, University of Maryland, 2006–Present. Graduate Assistantship, American University, 2002–2003. American Economic Association Summer Training Program, Scholarship recipient, 2002 & 2003.

��

Prof. Judith Hellerstein University of Maryland [email protected] (301) 405-3545 Prof. John Ham University of Maryland [email protected] (202) 380-8806

Prof. Soohyung Lee University of Maryland [email protected] (301) 405-3512 ��Part 1: The Effect of the Incarceration of Fathers on the Economic Wellbeing of Mothers (Job Market Paper)

The male incarceration rate has increased greatly over the last several decades. Given that over half of incarcerated men are fathers, this surge in the male prison population has important implications for mothers and children. This research uses data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study (FFCWB), a national sample of mostly unwed parent and their children, to analyze the effect of the incarceration of fathers on the economic wellbeing of mothers. Women who have children with men who become incarcerated differ observably from other mothers in the FFCWB. I employ propensity score matching methods in order to address the non-random selection of men into incarceration and to obtain causal estimates of the average treatment effect on the treated (ATET) of father’s incarceration on various measures of the economic wellbeing of mothers. I find robust evidence that the incarceration of fathers increases the probability that mothers receive public assistance by 10-20 percentage points. My resultssuggest that the incarceration of fathers also increases the probability that mothers experience material hardship, including food, housing, and utility related insecurity.

Part II: The Effect of the Incarceration of Fathers on the Physical and Mental Health of Mothers This paper analyses the effect of the incarceration of fathers on the physical and mental health of mothers. The direction of the effect is theoretically ambiguous. The absence of the father due to incarceration may impose financial burdens and mental distress on the mother, thereby adversely affecting her health. However, the physical separation of the father from the mother, particularly in cases where drug abuse or domestic violence was present, may relieve stress and improve health conditions. Using the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, I employ propensity score matching methods to estimate the average treatment effect on the treated (ATET) of father’s incarceration on the physical health, mental depression, and anxiety of mothers.

�Part III: The Effect of the Incarceration of Fathers on Children’s Health and Development

This paper analyses the effect of the incarceration of fathers on child health, behavior, and cognitive development. The direction of the effect is ambiguous. A father’s incarceration may hamper his ability to maintain frequent contact with his children and also impose financial burdens on the mother, thereby adversely affecting children’s development and behavior. However, if the father is a negative influence on the family, his absence may enhance children’s wellbeing. The effects will be empirical analyzed using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study.

��Citizenship: U.S. Gender: Female Race: African American

JING ZHANG

4318 Rowalt Drive, Apt. 202,

College Park, Maryland 20740

Mobile: (240) 755-1541

Email: [email protected] Website: www.econ.umd.edu/~zhang-j

EDUCATION

Ph.D. Economics, University of Maryland, College Park, expected May 2011

M.A. Economics, University of Maryland, College Park, 2007

M.A. Economics, Peking University, Beijing, China, 2005

B.A. Economics and Philosophy, Peking University, Beijing, China, 2002 DISSERTATION

The Impact of Water Quality on Health in China

Committee: Prof. Judith Hellerstein (Chair), Prof. Maureen Cropper, Prof. Soohyung Lee FIELDS OF SPECIALIZATION Primary: Development Economics, Environmental Economics

Secondary: Labor Economics, Health Economics

PAPERS AND PUBLICATIONS

Publications

“Comparing Public and Private Hospitals in China: Evidence from Guangdong” (with Mingshan

Lu et al.), BMC Health Services Research, forthcoming.

“Soft Budget Constraints in China: Evidence from the Guangdong Hospital Industry” (with

Karen Eggleston et al.), International Journal of Healthcare Finance and Economics,

9(2009), 233-242.

Papers

“The Impact of Water Quality on Health: Evidence from the Drinking Water Infrastructure

Program in Rural China”

Job market paper.

Revise and resubmit at Journal of Health Economics.

Presentation: China Center for Economic Research Symposium, Peking University,

Beijing, China, June 2010 and China Economic Society Annual Meeting, Xiamen, China,

June 2010.

“What Prevents the Poor from Obtaining Hepatitis B Vaccinations – Price of Vaccination, Travel

Cost or Information? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Rural China” (with Knut R.

Wangen and Jian Wang)

Work in progress.

“Health Disparities and the Contributing Factors: Evidence from China’s Shandong Province”

Work in progress. RESEARCH/WORK EXPERIENCE

Consultant, World Bank, Washington, D.C., August 2010 - present

Visiting Scholar, Shandong University, China, Summer 2010

Research Assistant, Prof. Peter Murrell, University of Maryland, Summer 2008

Research Assistant, Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, Summer 2007

Research Fellow, China Academy of Health Policy, Beijing, China, Spring 2004 - Summer 2005 TEACHING EXPERIENCE

Teaching Assistant, Principles of Microeconomics, University of Maryland, Fall 2008, Spring 2010

Teaching Assistant, Principles of Macroeconomics, University of Maryland, Spring 2007, 2008

Teaching Assistant, Money and Banking, University of Maryland, Fall 2006, 2007

Jing Zhang - Page 2 AWARDS

Graduate Assistantship, University of Maryland, Fall 2006 - Spring 2010

Graduate Fellowship, University of Maryland, Fall 2005 - Spring 2006 REFERENCES

Prof. Judith Hellerstein University of Maryland [email protected] (301) 405-3545

Prof. Maureen Cropper University of Maryland [email protected] (301) 405-3483

Prof. Soohyung Lee University of Maryland [email protected] (301) 405-3512 PAPER ABSTRACTS

“The Impact of Water Quality on Health: Evidence from the Drinking Water Infrastructure

Program in Rural China”

Providing people with safe drinking water is one of the most important health-related

infrastructure programs in the world. This paper investigates the effect of a major water

improvement program in rural China on the health of adults and children. Using panel data

covering about 4,500 households from 1989 to 2006, I estimate the impact of introducing village-

level access to water from water plants on various measures of health. Ordinary least squares

estimation of the impact suggests only a weak positive influence of the program on people’s

health status, but these results are contaminated by endogenous timing and placement of the water

quality interventions across China. To address potential endogeneity, I use topographic

characteristics of communities as instruments for program placement, as these characteristics

affect the cost of the construction of pipelines from water plants into villages. My instrumental

variables results show that the introduction of treated water into villages has had a strong impact

on the health status of both adults and children. The estimates imply that the illness incidence of

adults decreased by 50 percent and their weight for height increased by 26 gram/cm following the

program implementation. There was also an improvement in self-reports of health. Children’s

weight for height and height both rose, by 8 gram/cm and 2.49 cm respectively, as a result

of the program. Using a variety of robustness checks, I show that the results are not driven by

measurement error, omitted variable bias, or attrition bias, and that the mechanism by which the

program was effective was via improved water quality rather than simply via increased access to

water.

“What Prevents the Poor from Obtaining Hepatitis B Vaccinations - Price of Vaccination, Travel

Cost or Information? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Rural China”

(Work in progress)

Poor access to health services is a severe problem in developing countries. This problem is caused

by several factors, such as high prices, poor accessibility, or lack of knowledge. This paper aims

to disentangle the impacts of these three factors on the demand for Hepatitis B (HB) vaccination

by using a randomized experiment in rural China. In our project, we conduct both a household

survey, which covers over 1000 households in 5 villages, and a survey of local medical facilities.

The household survey enables estimation of household’s willingness to pay, based on the

contingent valuation method and the Becker-DeGroot-Marshack mechanism, and also elicits their

knowledge about Hepatitis B and its vaccine. In addition to interviews based on questionnaires,

we offer travel coupons with a random amount of compensation for hospital visits to households.

The purpose of this is twofold: first, the randomization improves the measurement of the

influence of travel costs - which can be a major obstacle in rural areas - and thereby helps

separate travel costs from other factors affecting vaccination demand. Second, the experiment has

direct policy relevance, since reimbursement of travel costs could be a potential candidate for

government intervention. PERSONAL INFORMATION

Nationality: China (F-1 VISA) Gender: Female Languages: Chinese, English (fluent)

ZHAOGA�G QIAO 32 Rockcrest Circle, Rockville, MD 20851

Phone: (301) 706-6642, Fax: (202) 589-8798 Email: [email protected], Website: www.econ.umd.edu/~qiao

EDUCATIO�

Ph.D. Economics, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 2010 M.Sc. International Trade, Renmin University of China, Beijing, China, 2001 B.A. Economics, Shandong University, Shandong, China, 1998

DISSERTATIO�

Essays in Cross-Country Consumption Risk Sharing Committee: Prof. Anton Korinek (Co-Chair), Prof. Ingma Prucha (Co-Chair), Prof. Carlos Vegh, Prof. Pablo D’Erasmo, and Prof. Vojislav Maksimovic

FIELDS OF SPECIALIZATIO�

Primary: International Finance, Applied Econometrics Secondary: Labor

PAPERS

“Cross-country Risk Sharing, a Long-run Perspective,” IMF Working Paper WP/10/64 Presentation: European Department Seminar, IMF, Jan. 2010 “Impact of Intra-European Trade Agreements, 1990-2005: Policy Implications,”

joint with Johannes Herderschee, IMF Working Paper WP/07/126 “Contribution of Financial Intermediaries to Capital Formation and Total Factor Productivity in

Bulgaria,” joint with Johannes Herderschee, Work in progress “Wage Convergence in Romania: the Role of the Government Wage Policy,”

joint with Costas Christou, Work in progress RESEARCH/WORK EXPERIE�CE Research Assistant, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC, June 2005-present

Prepared analytical country staff reports for emerging Eastern European countries to analyze macroeconomic trends and to assess macroeconomic vulnerabilities; assisted in macroeconomic projections for the World Economic Outlook. Co-authored or provided analytical assistance on various research and policy projects, including “Impact of Intra-European Trade Agreements, 1990-2005: Policy Implications,” “Bank Crisis Management: using Cross-sectional Worldwide Data from the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision,” and “Financial Institution Development and Economic Growth.” Designed and programmed large panel datasets by collating data through various sources, and conducted statistical analysis and econometric modeling on the datasets, using Stata, Eviews and Excel.

Research Intern, Development Research Group, World Bank, Washington, DC, Summer 2004 Researched firm performance and labor market outcomes under trade-related labor standards in Cambodia.

ACHIEVEME�TS/AWARDS Charted Financial Analyst Level III Candidate, passed the Level II test in August 2007. Teaching Assistantship, University of Maryland, Fall 2001-Spring 2005. Outstanding Student Scholarship, Renmin University of China, 2000. Certification of Outstanding Thesis, Shandong University, 1998.

Zhaogang Qiao-Page 2 VOLU�TEER EXPERIE�CE

Director, Shandong Association of Great Washington, Washington, DC, 2009-present Vice Chairman and Director, Bank-Fund Chinese Staff Association, Washington, DC, 2006-20

REFERE�CES Prof. Anton Korinek University of Maryland [email protected] (301) 405-4536 Prof. Ingma Prucha University of Maryland [email protected] (301) 405-3499 Prof. Carlos Vegh University of Maryland [email protected] (301) 405-3546

THESIS ABSTRACT Part I. “Empirical Tests on Long-run Cross-country Consumption Risk Sharing” (Job market paper)

This paper estimates an empirical nonstationary panel regression model that tests long-run consumption risk sharing across a sample of OECD and emerging market countries. This is in contrast to the literature on consumption risk sharing that is mainly about risks at business cycle frequency. We argue that existing tests neglect the permanent elements of risks that are of interest and that their model specifications are not rich enough to accommodate heterogeneous short-run dynamics. Since our methodology focuses on identifying cointegrating relationships while allowing for arbitrary short-run dynamics, we can obtain a consistent estimate of long-run risk sharing while disregarding any short-run nuisance factors. Our results show that, for the period of 1950-2008, the level of long-run risk sharing in the OECD countries is similar to that in emerging market countries. However, during the financial integration episode of the past two decades, long-run risk sharing in OECD countries increased more than that in emerging market countries. Furthermore, we investigate the relationship between various measures of financial integration and cross-country risk sharing, but find only weak evidences of such linkages.

Part II. “Theoretical Illustrations on Cross-country Consumption Risk Sharing”

This paper sets up a model to illustrate an essential difference between a bond economy and an insurance economy. We show that a bond economy can intertemporally smooth consumption in the face of transitory output shocks, but not for permanent output shocks; an insurance economy is essential for risk sharing on permanent shocks. We therefore show that when both transitory and permanent output shocks exist, transitory shocks only create noise if the focus of interest is on identifying risk sharing in the long run.

TRADE PAPER ABSTRACT “Impact of Intra-European Trade Agreements, 1990-2005: Policy Implications”

The paper provides quantitative estimates of the impact of the European trade agreements on trade flows. It applies both static and dynamic panel estimation techniques. The results are useful to policymakers because new intra-European trade agreements are being negotiated. In the absence of a further expansion of the European Union, estimates of alternative policies may help to clarify the policy debate. The paper also illustrates that the performance of individual countries under the trade agreements can be explained in terms of their macroeconomic environment. The conclusions are likely to be relevant to the western Balkan countries and Ukraine.

PERSO�AL I�FORMATIO� Nationality: P. R. China Gender: Male

Visa: G4

U N I V E R S I T Y O F MARYLAND - ECON l Department ...econweb.umd.edu/~support/candidates2010.pdfCollege Park, Maryland 20742-7211 301.405.3266 TEL 301.405.3542 FAX Department of

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