Twin Cities Metro Area Transportation system

TWIN CITIES METRO

AREA TRANSIT FUNDING

NEEDS ASSESSMENT

Transportation Funding Advisory Committee

August 2012

Agenda

2

• Basis of the needs assessment

• Scenario 1 – Status Quo

• Scenario 2 – Maintain Current

Performance

• Scenario 3 – Economic Competitiveness

• Scenario 4 – World Class

Base Bus System Expansion in

the Regional Plan

3

• Local bus

– Increased frequency, span of service,

coverage

– Improved quality and speed of service

• Express bus

– Increase service on existing routes to meet

demand

– Add service to new park & rides

4

Transitways

in the

Regional

Plan

Funding Assumptions in the

Needs Assessment

5

• State general fund constant

– Approximately $65 million/year

• Federal revenues in operating constant

– Approximately $38.5 million/year

• MVST

– Consistent with current State forecast to 2015

– Constant growth of 3.2% per year after 2015

• Fares increases to keep up with inflation (every

3 years)

Funding Needs Scenarios

6

• Scenarios 1 and 2 include projects already

operating or actively in development

• Scenarios 3 and 4 are more conceptual in

nature

– Some transitway corridors are still being

studied to determine mode and alignment

Scenario 1 – Status Quo

7

• Continue to operate the transit system that exists

today and finish Central LRT and Cedar Stage 1

• System includes:

– Existing bus and Metro Mobility service levels

– Mandatory Metro Mobility (ADA) service increases

– Hiawatha LRT

– Northstar Commuter Rail

– Central LRT starting in 2014

– Cedar Ave BRT Stage 1 starting in 2013

Status Quo/No Growth Structural

Transit Operating Revenue Issues

8

2015 2020 2025 2030

Other

Federal

State GF

Fares

MVST

Gap

Expenses

46%

Inflation Growth

of ExpensesNo Growth

Revenues

14%

25%

9%

6%

46%

25%

9%5%6%

Scenario 1 – Status Quo

9

• Expected Outcomes:

↑ Increased fares

↓ Reduced service

↓ Reduced ridership

• Does not address growing demand

Scenario 1 – Status Quo

10

• $10 million gap in 2015

• $14 million gap in 2016

• After 2016, gap continues to grow

because of structural funding issues

Total Investment Need 2015-2030 =

$570 M ($36 M per year)**Non-inflated figure

Scenario 2 – Maintain Current

Performance

11

• Regional growth requires more transit

investments to maintain current mobility levels

• System includes:

– Scenario 1 service levels

– Bus service expansion (0.5% growth / year)

– Southwest LRT (SWLRT)

– I-35W South BRT

– Cedar Ave BRT Stage 2

– Three Arterial BRT corridors

Scenario 2 – Maintain Current

Performance

12

Expected Outcomes:

+ Positive results for residents

+ Addresses growing transit demand and makes

progress toward doubling ridership by 2030

+ New connections between home, school, work and

entertainment

+ Positive results for businesses

+ Transit spurs economic development

+ Solid infrastructure attracts jobs & development

Scenario 2 – Maintain Current

Performance

13

• Scenario 1 investment needs– About $570 million over 16 years ($36 M per year)

• Plus Scenario 2 investments needed to

fund capital and operating expansions– About $1.03 billion over 16 years ($64 M per year)

Total Investment Need 2015-2030 =

$1.6 B ($100 M per year)**Non-inflated figure

Scenario 3 – Economic

Competitiveness

14

• Improved mobility levels for residents and

businesses and enhanced regional economic

competitiveness

• System includes (conceptual example):– Scenario 1 and 2 service levels

– Bus service expansion (1.0% total growth/year over status quo)

– Two additional LRT (after SWLRT)

– Six additional Arterial BRT corridors

– Three additional Highway BRT/Managed Lane corridors

Scenario 3 based on the transit vision in the Council's 2030 Transportation Policy Plan and

the Program of Projects

Scenario 3 – Economic

Competitiveness

15

Expected Outcomes:

• Positive results for residents– Addresses more growth in demand and doubling of ridership by 2030

– Significantly better connections between home, school, work and entertainment

– Faster, cheaper transportation options that are safe and environmentally-friendly

• Positive results for business– Additional 500,000 employees will have access to jobs via transit

– Freight and logistics savings

– Investments compete well with similar investments in peer regions

• Positive result for all taxpayers: A return on investment

(ROI) between $6.6 and $10.1 billion to 2030

Scenario 3 – Economic

Competitiveness

16

• Scenarios 1 and 2 investment need– About $1.6 billion over 16 years ($100 M per year)

• Plus Scenario 3 investments needed to

fund capital and operating expansions– About $1.6 billion over 16 years ($100 M per year)

Total Investment Need 2015-2030 =

$3.2 B ($200 M per year)**Non-inflated figure

Scenario 4 – World Class

17

• Accelerated transit investment program, sustained

beyond 2030

• A more robust, balanced and comprehensive regional

transit system

• System includes (conceptual example):

– Scenario 1, 2, and 3 service levels

– Bus service expansion (1.5% total growth/year over status quo)

– Three additional Arterial BRT corridors

– Two additional rail lines

– Two additional Highway BRT/Managed Lane corridors

– Six streetcar lines

Scenario 4 – World Class

18

Expected Outcomes:

• Positive results for residents– Significantly address growth in demand and more than double ridership by 2030

– Extensive connections between home, school, work and entertainment

– Additional faster, cheaper transportation options that are safe and

environmentally-friendly

• Positive results for business– Additional employees will have access to jobs via transit

– Additional freight and logistics savings

– Position the region to surpass investments in peer regions and further enhance

regional competitiveness

• Positive result for all taxpayers: an ROI between $10.7

and $16.5 billion in 2030

Scenario 4 – World Class

19

• Scenarios 1, 2, and 3 investment need– About $3.2 billion over 16 years ($200 M per year)

• Plus Scenario 4 investment needs to fund

capital and operating expansions– About $1.6 billion over 16 years ($100 M per year)

Total Investment Need 2015-2030 =

$4.8 B ($300 M per year)**Non-inflated figure

In Summary

20

• Scenario 1: results in service cuts and less

mobility and leaves this region falling behind

peers and losing competitiveness

• Scenario 2: brings the region in line with

existing conditions of competing peer regions

• Scenarios 3 and 4: make the region

competitive with peers and provide

opportunities to attract additional investment