Turkey vs Iran Iakovos Alhadeff A very nice article by Al Monitor, titled “Fighting ISIS: Kings of Jordan, Saudi Arabia Meeting To Discuss Terrorism, Regional Conflicts”, February 2015. The article examines how Turkey sees the agreement about Iran’s nuclear program, which will allow Iran, after many years of isolation, to reconnect to the Western world.
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Turkey vs IranIakovos Alhadeff
A very nice article by Al Monitor, titled “Fighting ISIS: Kings of Jordan,
Saudi Arabia Meeting To Discuss Terrorism, Regional Conflicts”, February
2015. The article examines how Turkey sees the agreement about Iran’s
nuclear program, which will allow Iran, after many years of isolation, to
reconnect to the Western world.
The article says that Turkey sees the agreement positively, because she
expects economics benefits from it. Obviously it will be a great benefit for
the Turkish economy if Iran finally sends its natural gas to Europe through
Turkey. I must add that Turkey has helped Iran a great deal during its
negotiations with the West for obvious reasons. However the article also
mentions that Turkey worries with the possibility of Iran rising to a regional
power. A statement made by the Turkish Foreign Minister says it all. After
the agreement was reached about the Iranian nuclear program, Melvut
Cavusoglu said that Iran must play a constructive role in Iraq and Syria. And
the Al Monitor article wonders what will happen if Iran does not care to play
a constructive role in Iraq and Syria?
The truth is that Turkey worries about the dramatic improvement in the
relations between USA and Iran. Maybe Turkey did not see that coming.
Recently the Americans and the Iranians were fighting ISIS together. Taking
into account that Turkey exerts a lot of influence on ISIS, this could be seen
as an indirect war between the Americans and the Iranians on one hand, and
the Turks and some Arabs on the other. That’s a total conversion of the
geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.
It is true that Turkey wanted an agreement to be reached between Iran and
the West, but she also hoped that in the meantime the Syrian dictator Bashar
al Assad would be overturn. Turkey was hoping that Assad would be forced
to go to elections and that Turkey and the Arabs would manage to take Syria
away from the Iranian influence. Syria’s Muslim population is
predominantly Sunni, like it is the case with Turkey and most Arab
countries, while Assad is an Alawite. Alawites are an offshoot of Shiite
Islam, and Shiite Muslims are the overwhelming majority of the Iranian
population.
We therefore saw in Syria a very strange thing happening. In the beginning
the Americans were pushing for Assad’s overturn, and the Russians were
helping the Iranians to keep Assad in power. But as the agreement about
Iran’s nuclear program was approaching, and as the American-Turkish
relations were deteriorating, the Americans were becoming less willing to
overturn Assad, and the Russians were becoming less willing to support
Assad.
For the Russians Assad is usefull as long as Iran is a Russian ally, because
Syria’s main ally is Iran. If Iran becomes an American ally, and starts selling
its oil and natural gas to Europe, harming Russian interests, then Assad
might even become a problem for Russia. If Iran becomes an American ally,
Russia would prefer Syria to be controlled by Turkey. Because no matter
how antagonistic the relationship between Russia and Turkey is, Turkey
needs Russia, since she buys from Russia most of her natural gas. Note that
in Ukraine, which is not important for the Turkish energy policy, Turkey
remained silent, even though she is a prominent NATO member. Iran on the
other hand, if it starts selling its oil and natural gas to Europe might not need
Russia at all. Iran might even see Russia as an opponent.
Therefore one should expect that the more the American-Iranian relations
improve, and the more the Turkish-American relations deteriorate, the less
Russia will be willing to keep Assad in power. See also Russia Direct “Is
Russia finally turning its back on Assad”?, June 2015.