Gilles HUART FX Marketing - Paris 33-1 01.42.98.02.82 [email protected]MASTERE MANAGEMENT INDUSTRIEL INTERNATIONAL GESTION DES OPERATIONS INTERNATIONALES LE RISQUE DE CHANGE 6 Mars 2002 Corpor ate Bankin g and Investme nt Corporate Banking and Investment Foreign Exchange Markets TUNIS, 13 th December 2005 Nadia Dagnas / Andreas Hesse
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This is the largest market in the world with an estimated usd 1.9 Trio average daily turnover
Unlike Commodities and Equities markets, the Forex market is not located in a specific place nor limited by trading hours
It is a truly 24 hours global system trading example BNPP add geo Map
It knows no barrier and Forex is over-the-counter market where buyer and sellers conduct business
A foreign exchange transaction is a contract to exchange one currency for another at an agreed rate on an agreed date
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The FX market is evolving
$282$325
$348
$218
$301
$47
$94
$121
$111
$213
$62
$75
$99
$58
$108
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
1992 1995 1998 2001 2004
Av
era
ge
Da
ily V
olu
me
(U
SD
bill
ion
s)
Non-FI
Other FI
Interbank
Dealing between Banks and other Financial Institutions has risen while interbank dealing has declined as a proportion of the overall market
NBFIs including Hedge Funds, Fund Managers and CTAs
Source: Bank for International Settlements 2004
INTRODUCTION
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$350
$394
$494
$568
$387
$621
$282
$325$348
$301
$218
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Ave
rag
e D
aily
Vo
lum
e (U
S$
bill
ion
s)
Spot FX
Inter-bank Spot FX
Source: Bank for International Settlements 2004
INTRODUCTION
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Average daily turnover (ADV) in FX markets rose from USD 1.2 trillion in April 2001 to USD 1.9 trillion in April 2004, a 57% increase at current exchange rates and 36% increase at constant exchange rates
Spot FX posted the largest gains going from ADV of USD 387 billion in April 2001 to USD 621 billion in April 2004 – 60.5% growth at current exchange rates
Source: Bank for International Settlements 2004
53%
12%
35%
Forwards
Outrights
Spot
USD 944 billion
USD 621 billion
USD 208 billion
INTRODUCTION
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Market participants
Market liquidity
Around-the-clock market
CONTENTS
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Contents - MARKET PARTICIPANTS
Governments
Central banks
Corporate
Financial Institutions
Market Makers
Governments
Central banks
Corporate
Financial Institutions
Market Makers
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MARKET PARTICIPANTS - Governments
Governments have requirements for foreign currencies
1. Government expenses
1. ie to pay staff salaries and local bills of embassy abroad
2. Activities linked to the management of non domestic debts To pay back foreign loan with the capital sum eventually having to be
repaid ( Paris club ) Foreign Bonds redemption
Who is managing the risk ?1. In some countries there are Debt agencies Sweden
Belgium
2. In other countries MOF will act through central banks ie Greece
Products tools Fx spot Fx forward Fx options
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MARKET PARTICIPANTS - Central banks
CENTRAL BANKS ARE ACTIVE MAINLY FOR THE FOLLOWINGREASONS The central banks are stabilising their own currency
1. They will enter the market to correct what are felt to be unnecessarily large movements often in conjunction with one another
2. By their actions however they can sometimes create the excess they are specifically trying to prevent
Example of G7 interventions charts
The second group of active central banks can be described as aggressive managers of their reserves
1. Some of the middle east and Far Eastern central banks fall into this category 2. They are major speculative risk takers to enhance local flows
3. Managing bonds portfolio and money market deposits
Existence of a currencies basket will conduct their Forex activities with curencies adjustments
According evolution of the basket percentage reserves have to replicate weight of currencies in the basket
Example: Russia
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MARKET PARTICIPANTS - Central banks
CENTRAL BANK INTERVENTION : JAPAN EXAMPLE
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MARKET PARTICIPANTS - Central banks
CENTRAL BANK of CHINA
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MARKET PARTICIPANTS - Corporate
Commercial requirements
1. Importers oil (buying USD)
2. Exporters utilities, manufacturing goods
M&A Business (MERGER AND ACQUISITION)
1. Cross border activities
2. Exemples of recent M&A involving Forex transactions
Financial Business
1. Balance sheet consolidation
2. case of HIA
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MARKET PARTICIPANTS - Financial institutions
Real Money managers / Pension funds - long term view1. Forex activity as investment in foreign bonds or equities
1. Chart: Japanese investors flows into Usd
Hedge funds - medium term view1. They have no underlying exposure to hedge rather they attempt to
fulfill the adage buy low sell high by trading for profit as a reward of their activities
2. Foreign exchange is an ideal speculative tool offering volatility liquidity and leverage
Commercial banks- short term view Trading activities on Fx spot Estimated up to 90 % of the daily trading activity, as a speculator
community
Development Banks and Public organisations1. Loans2. Payables and receivables
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FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS : Japanese investors flows into USD
MARKET PARTICIPANTS - Financial institutions
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MARKET PARTICIPANTS - Market makers
LIQUIDITY PROVIDER1. MM have the obligation to quote2-way prices, hence showing
bid/offer spread2. MM are ready to buy and sell currencies 3. Reciprocity is standard practice
4. This category is the largest and includes international commercial and investment banks
PRICES FACTORY 1. It requires a global organisation2. Expertise and knowledge to deal with particular requirements
1. very important flows, high number of transactions
MAKE PROFIT Maximising the turn-over Set Bid / Offer spread
The bulk of today trading activity is concentrated between 150 banks
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MARKET PARTICIPANTS - Market makers
BROKER HOUSES
1. Bring buyer and seller together at a mutually agreed price
2. Liquidity provider, both buyer and seller should pay a transaction commission which will vary according to currency handled, the amount and from center to center
Afghanistan Cape Verde Gambia Liberia Palestine SurinamAlbania Cayman Islands Georgia Lithuania Papua New Guinea SwazilandAlgeria Central African Republic Ghana Macao Paraguay SyriaAngola Chad Grenada Macedonia Peru TahitiAnguilla Chile Guatemala Madagascar Phillipines TaiwanAntigua & Barbuda China Guinea-Bissau Malawi Poland TajikistanArgentina Colombia Guinea Republic Malaysia Qatar TanzaniaArmenia Comoros Guyana Maldives Romania ThailandAzerbeijan Congo Haiti Mali Russia TogoBahamas Costa Rica Honduras Malta Rwanda Tonga IslandsBahrain Croatia Hungary Mauritania St. Kitts & Nevis Trinidad & TobagoBangladesh Curacao Iceland Mauritius St. Lucia TunisiaBarbados Cyprus India Mexico St. Vincent & TurkeyBelarus Czech Republic Indonesia Moldova The Grenadines TurkmenistanBelize Democractic Republic Iran Mongolia Samoa UgandaBenin of Congo (former Zaire) Israel Montenegro Sao Tome & Principe UkraineBermuda Djibouti Ivory Coast Montserrat Saudi Arabia United Arab EmiratesBhutan Dominica Jamaica Morocco Senegal UruguayBolivia Dominican Republic Jordan Mozambique Serbia UzbekistanBosnia-Herzegovina Egypt Kazakhstan Myanmar Seychelles VanuatuBotswana El Salvador Kenya Namibia Sierra Leone VenezuelaBrazil Equatorial Guinea Korea Nepal Slovakia VietnamBrunei Eritrea Kuwait Netherlands Antilles Slovenia YemenBulgaria Estonia Kyrgyzstan Nicaragua Solomon Islands ZambiaBurkina Faso Ethiopia Laos Niger Somalia ZimbabweBurundi Fiji Latvia Nigeria South AfricaCambodia French Guiana Lebanon Oman Sri LankaCameroon Gabon Lesotho Pakistan Sudan
Contents - MARKET LIQUIDITY
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Contents - AROUND-THE-CLOCK MARKETMain financial centers, 24 hours per day
Europe & Middle East• Paris • London• Amsterdam• Athens• Dublin• Brussels• Switzerland• Bahrain
• Oslo• Milan• Madrid• Warsaw• Budapest• Sofia
Japan• Tokyo
Asia• Bangkok• Hong-Kong• Singapore• Seoul• Taipei• Sydney
Americas• New-York• San-Francisco• Montreal• Brazil• Argentina
Singapore
Front Office Staff
Risk Solution
Sales
Total Front Office : 284
Americas 51
Japan 12
Asia ex. Japan 75
Europe 150
442626 2121
224141 3232
66 55
1010 60608080
Trading
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5 “Hubs”
23 Local Platforms
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FOREIGN EXCHANGE EXPOSURE
Volatility
Foreign exchange risk
Sources of risk
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Foreign Exchange Exposure - VOLATILITY
Volatility1. The volatility is the amplitude of currencies variations
2. Forex risk exposure is linked to volatility factors
Reasons of currencies move1. Growth differentials expectations
2. Interest rates expectations
3. Large market flows
4. Market news and Rumour (“Buy the Rumour, sell the News”)
No volatility no Forex risk1. Some emerging currencies are pegged to Usd, any FX risk?
2. Risk of deval or reval...
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Foreign exchange exposure is the risk of financial impact due to changes in foreign exchange rates
The participants in the foreign exchange markets effect hedge operations for either financial or commercial transactions
Foreign Exchange Exposure - RISK EXPOSURE
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Transaction ExposureTransaction exposure mainly impacts a company’s profit and loss
and cash flow It results from transacting business in currencies different from the
home-based currencyThis exposure could be hedged through the use of foreign exchange
products such as forward contracts
Commercial transactions and hedgingCommercial transactions hedging
Corp. buying raw materials from abroad and exporting final products Importers of goods buying foreign currencies
Economic exposure in case of tender
Foreign Exchange Exposure - RISK SOURCES
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Foreign Exchange Exposure - RISK SOURCES
Financial transactionsFundingPortfolio investment
Translation exposure Translation exposure mainly impacts a company’s balance sheet It results from the translation of foreign assets and liabilities into the
company‘s home currency for accounting purposes
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FOREIGN EXCHANGE PRODUCTS
Spot market
Forward market
Non deliverable forward
Forex options
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Bid / Offer spread Prices are given as spread
1.1724/1.1728
Spread is given in pips
Amount
Trader buys at lower price bid side or left side
Trader sells at highest price left Ask side or Right side
Client buys at highest price / Client sells at lowest price
Foreign Exchange Products - SPOT Transaction
Spot is the price at which one currency can be bought or sold, expressed in terms of the other currency for delivery on spot value date
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Foreign Exchange Products - SPOT
Reuters page: Spot prices
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Foreign Exchange Products - SPOT
PRICE DETERMINANTSsupply and demand exchange rates in foreign exchange are driven
by the laws of supply and demand
The supply and demand for specific currencies change given the amount of trade and investment being done
If there is a high demand for a currency its value increases
If there is a low demand then its value decreases
but also economic political monetary and social factors
Rumours and anticipations
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CONVENTION
Delivery D+22 business days are required to enable the trade information between the
counterparties involved to be agreed on and to process the funds through the local clearing
ISO code: GBP, USD,.... First 2 letters for the country: GreatBritainP, 3rd letter for the currency: GBPoundQuotation
Direct domestic currency is quoted versus foreign currency Eur/Usd, Gbp/Usd
Indirect foreign currency is quoted versus domestic currencyUsd/chf usd/jpy usd/kes
Market quotation prices are given with 4 decimals except the jpy the second decimal is called the figurethe last 2 decimals are pips
Foreign Exchange Products - SPOT
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OrdersTake profitStop lossAt best
Foreign Exchange Products - SPOT
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“My word is my bound”
Quick pricing
Trading PositionsLong EURUSD Risk Downside Short EURUSD Risk UpsideSquare No risk
Trading rules Neutral will price market price
Bullish Trader will quote better bid 1.0725/29
Bearish Trader will quote better offer 1.0723/27
Trading limitsOpen positions limits
Orders stop loss take profit
MDDR
Foreign Exchange Products - SPOT
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Monitoring a position
Buy Sell Rate Amount2 Value Date Deal DateB 5,000,000.00 1.1725 -5,862,500.00 15/12/2005 13/12/2005B 20,000,000.00 1.1777 -23,554,000.00 15/12/2005 13/12/2005
S -5,000,000.00 1.1777 5,888,500.00 15/12/2005 13/12/2005 B 6,000,000.00 1.1775 -7,065,000.00 15/12/2005 13/12/2005
Principle A forward contract is a transaction excecuted today in which one
currency is bought or sold against another for delivery on a specified date
Forward points are relative interest rate differentials expressed as units of currency
Forward contract prices are determined by 2 factorsthe current spot price between the two currenciesthe interest rate prevailing in each of the two currencies
Premiumif the interest rates in the variable currency are lower than those of the fixed
currency The forward points are added to the spot rate to get the forward rate
DiscountThe interest rates in the variable currency are higher than those of the fixed
currencyThe forwards points are deducted from the spot rate
Foreign Exchange Products - FORWARD Bids and offers
Just as there is bid and offer in the spot market there is also a bid and offer rate in the forward market
This means that the forward points for both sides of the exchange rates must be quoted
Outright Forward BNP sells 3 months EUR BNP will deliver EUR in 3 months BNP buys today the Eur to be delivered in 3 M BNP needs to borrow Usd during 3 m period BNP will lend the Eur during 3 months that will be used at maturity for the delivery ACB will deliver Usd in 3 months
NDFs allow corporations, banks and other organisation to hedge their currency risk simply and efficiently
Whether the exposure takes the shape of overseas assets or equity holdings, international subsidiaries or receivables in foreign currencies
NDF to protect their investment
PrinciplesAs with normal forward transaction you either buy or sell the NDF depending
on your position to be hedged or your view on the currency or its interest rates
There is no physical delivery of currency at maturity
Instead, the difference between the agreed outright price and the prevailing spot rate is multiplied by the notional amount of the contract to return an amount in dollars
Settlement: Payment of Netting
FX Products - NON DELIVERABLE FORWARD
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NDFs are generally short term instruments, using the same standard foreign exchange as forward market convention
Two way prices are quoted two ways bid / offer
NDFs require a fixing mechanism to establish a spot rate on which to settle these transactions
The purchaser of the contract pays out the foreign exchangedifferential in dollars
Advantage of NDFsNot subject to local regulations or restrictionsPrincipal not subject to settlement risk only profit and lossSimple and easy settlement Only settlement currency in Usd so no local currency accounts are
needed Eliminates paying spot bid/ask spreads again at maturity of the
contract
FX Products - NON DELIVERABLE FORWARD
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Hedging Currency risk with NDFA multinational corporation generates 30% of its revenues in Korea
but reports and dividends are in the EUR if the Korean Wong depreciates the value of its earning erodes and
the company could miss its earning projection The company needs to ensure access to an acceptable exchange
rate six months forward The company Sells forward using a six months NDF contract
Foreign Exchange Products - OPTIONS Definition and terminology
A forex option give the right to the order to buy or sell specific amount at a specific rate at a specific date
Call & Put option: Calls and puts provide the buyer with an instrument that ensures against adverse exchange rate movements. In return for this protection, the buyer pays a premium for the option. If the option is exercised there is a physical delivery of the underlying stock.
•At expiry, the buyer of the Call has unlimited upside potential if the spot rate is higher than the strike price Call is the right to buy .•At expiry, the holder of the put has unlimited upside potential if the spot rate is lower than the strike price. Put is the right to sell
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• Premium of the option= price of the option paid at spot value
• Exercise is the process by which the option is converted into a spot transaction
• The strike is the exchange rate at which the option can be exercised In the Money, At the Money, Out The Money • Expiry date is the final date on which the option can be exercised• European style exercise at maturity• American style exercise during the life of the option
• PRICE = intrinsic value+time value • Intrinsic value is the advantage to the holder of the option of the strike rate
over the forward outright rite• Time value is a mathematical function of implied volatility time to maturity
interest rates differentials, spot and the strike of the option• Volatility• It is a statistical function of the movement of exchange rate it measures
the speed of movement within an exchange rate band
Foreign Exchange Products - OPTIONS
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Foreign Exchange Products - OPTIONS
An investor wants to hedge against a possible strengthening of the EUR.
He buys a EUR Call USD Put with the following details:
Strike 1.19
Spot 1.18
Expiry 1 month
FX Outright 1.1820
Volatility @8.5%
Premium 0.4250% EUR
If the spot rate exceeds 1.19 at maturity, the customer exercises his call : he can buy the nominal in euros at the strike price.
If the spot rate ends up below 1.19, his loss is limited to the amount of the premium.
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Common Option Strategies
A straddle is a combination of a call and a put on the same underlying asset with same strike price and same expiry date. A long straddle is obtained by buying a call and a put while a short straddle is obtained by selling a call and a put.
ValueThe value of a straddle increases with the maturity and the volatility of the underlying asset. PayoffAt expiry, the owner of the straddle has unlimited upside potential if the spot rate should move either direction.The writer of the straddle will benefit if the spot price remains very close to the strike.
Foreign Exchange Products - OPTIONS
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A strangle is a combination of a call and a put on the sameunderlying asset, with the same the put). A long strangle is created by buying a call and a put, while ashort strangle is created by selling a call and a put.
ValueThe value of a strangle increases with the volatility of the underlying asset. PayoffAt expiry, the owner of the option has unlimited upside potential if the spot rate should move either direction by a large extent. The writer of the strangle will benefit if the spot price remains between the put strike and the call strike.
Foreign Exchange Products - OPTIONS
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A risk reversal portfolio is obtained either by buying a call and selling a put or selling a call and buying a put. It can be used as a cheaper hedging strategy compared to a plain European call or put.
PremiumThe net cost of a risk reversal is very low since the sold option covers the cost of the purchased option, sometimes even making it a zero-cost strategy.
PayoffThe payoff diagrams for a risk reversal are :
Foreign Exchange Products - OPTIONS
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A bullish vertical spread is created by buying a call option and selling a further out of the money call with same expiry.A bearish vertical spread is created by buying a put and selling a further out-of-the money put with same expiry. PremiumVertical spreads cost less than European options as the cost of the bought option is offset to a certain extent by the premium received for the sold option.
PayoffThe buyer benefits if the spot rate is between the two strikes at expiry. The payoff diagrams for vertical spreads are :
Foreign Exchange Products - OPTIONS
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A knock-in is a European option that becomes alive (is “knocked-in”) if the underlying spotreaches a predetermined barrier before maturity.
BarrierFor a regular knock-in, the barrier is out-of-the-money, i.e. below the strike for a call and above the strike for a put. For a reverse knock-in (or “kick-in”), the barrier is in-the-money, i.e. above the strike for a call and below the strike for a put.
PremiumThe knock-in premium is lower than that of a regular European option. The further the barrier to the spot, the lower the premium, as there is smaller probability that the option will become alive before expiry. It is a cheaper hedge compared to a European option.
PayoffIf the barrier is knocked-in, then the profile of a knock-in option is the same as with a regular option. If the option is not knocked-in, the customer having a position with underlying currency does not benefit from any exchange cover.
Foreign Exchange Products - OPTIONS
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A knock-out is a European option that ceases to exist (is “knocked-out”) if the underlying spot reaches a predetermined barrier before maturity.
BarrierFor a regular knock-out, the barrier is out-of-the-money, i.e. below the strike for a call and above the strike for a put. For a reverse knock-out (or “kick-out”), the barrier is in-the money, i.e. above the strike for a call and below the strike for a put.
PremiumThe knock-out premium is lower than that of a regular European option. The closer the barrier to the spot, the lower the premium, as there is greater probability that the option will extinguish before expiry. It is a cheaper hedge compared to a European option.
PayoffIf the barrier is not knocked-out, then the profile of a knock-out option is the same as with a regular option. If the option is knocked-out, the customer is no more hedged versus adverse market movements.
Foreign Exchange Products - OPTIONS
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Reuters page: Volatility prices
Foreign Exchange Products - Options
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Foreign Exchange Products - OPTIONS
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L’information contenue dans cette proposition est purement indicative, et sert debase préalable à nos discussions. Les stratégies décrites ci-dessus sont citées à titred’exemple uniquement et ne sauraient servir de seule base de calcul pour votreévaluation de l’opération décrite. Elles doivent faire l’objet d’adaptation à chaquecas particulier, et notamment répondre aux conditions de marché lors de laconclusion de vos opérations avec BNP-PARIBAS. Nous vous rappelons que touteopération de marché sur instrument dérivé comporte des risques, du fait notammentdes variations de taux d’intérêts, des parités des changes, des cours des valeursmobilières ou des indices boursiers. Au regard de ces risques et agissant en tant quecontrepartie de BNP-PARIBAS, vous disposez des connaissances et de l’expériencenécessaires pour évaluer les caractéristiques et les risques liés à la présenteopération préalablement à sa conclusion, vous avez apprécié en toute indépendancel’opportunité et l’adéquation de l’opération à ses besoins, et effectué votre propreanalyse juridique, fiscale, comptable et financière et réglementaire de l’opération,en vous appuyant sur vos conseils habituels auxquels BNP-PARIBAS ne saurait àaucun moment se substituer.