Tulsa Area Forecast 2016 Tulsa Regional Chamber Economic Outlook Conference December 2, 2015 Bob Ball Tulsa Regional Chamber.

Tulsa Area Forecast 2016

Tulsa Regional Chamber Economic Outlook Conference December 2, 2015

Bob BallTulsa Regional Chamber

Total EmploymentGrowth Forecast for 2015

1.5% in December 2014+6,400 jobs

Total EmploymentGrowth Forecast for 2015

0.8% in March 2015+3,600 jobs

Looks like growth of

0.6% for 2015+2,600

2016Employment Forecast

0.35%+1,560 jobs

Tulsa Total Employment

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016390000

400000

410000

420000

430000

440000

450000

+2.6+1.6

Tulsa Total Employment Growth

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

-2.00%

-1.50%

-1.00%

-0.50%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

0.60%0.35%

Tulsa Total Employment

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016390000

400000

410000

420000

430000

440000

450000

+2.6+1.6

-1.750

Tulsa Total Personal IncomeGrowth Forecast for 2015

6.0% December 2014

Tulsa Total Personal IncomeGrowth Forecast for 2015

6.0% December 20143.0%

2016Personal Income Forecast

2.4%

Tulsa Personal Income and Wages

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

3.0%2.4%2.4%

0.9%

Personal income Wages & salaries

Criteria for Target-sector Selection

• Sheer size of the sector• Availability of work force, work force training• Interrelationships among sectors• Infrastructure and assets

Target Sectors

• Energy• Advanced Manufacturing• Aerospace• Health Care• Professional Services and Regional HQs• Information Technology• Transportation, Distribution & Logistics

Tulsa Total Employment

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016390000

400000

410000

420000

430000

440000

450000

+2.6+1.6

-1.750

Impact of 2015 O&G-related Employment Losses on Tulsa

• 1,750 jobs supported 3,124 additional jobs.• 10 jobs in O&G-related industries support 18

additional jobs.• Lost O&G wages of $234.3 million remove the

support for $190.5 million in additional wages.• 1,750 jobs produced goods and services valued

at $352.8 million in Tulsa, or 0.6 percent of gross product.

Target Sectors

• Energy• Advanced Manufacturing• Aerospace• Health Care• Professional Services and Regional HQs• Information Technology• Transportation, Distribution & Logistics

These 6 Target Sectors Account for:

• 25 % of employment in the Tulsa economy

• 35 % of income and salaries • Average wage of $63,300, 46% higher than

the overall average

Energy/oil and gas

• Avg annual growth five years through 2014: 2.9%

• Growth in 2015:-7.5%-600 jobs

• Growth in 2016:-4.0%-290 jobs

Manufacturing

• Avg annual growth five years through 2014: 2.1%

• Growth in 2015:-5.8%-3,000 jobs

• Growth in 2016:-6.1%-2,980 jobs

Strength of the dollar

Machinery Manufacturing

• Avg annual growth five years through 2014: 5.2%

• • Growth in 2015: -7.2%

-990 jobs

• Growth in 2016:-11.1%-1,400 jobs

Aerospace

• Avg annual growth five years through 2014: flat

• Growth in 2015: 1.7%

• Growth in 2016: 2.5%

Transportation, Distribution, Logistics

• Avg annual growth five years through 2014: -1.5%

• Growth in 2015:-0.5%

• Growth in 2016:-1.5%

Professional & Business Services

• Avg annual growth five years through 2014: 1.3%

• Growth in 2015: 1.6%

• Growth in 2016: 2.0%

Information Technology

• Avg annual growth five years through 2014: -1.0%

• Growth in 2015: -0.7%

• Growth in 2016: -0.9%

Health Care

• Avg annual growth five years through 2014: 1.6%

• Growth in 2015: 1.9%

• Growth in 2016: 2.3%

Caveats to the Forecast