Tuesday, 09 August 2005 Chris SNUGGS, ISUGA 1 he Disunited States of Europe? Europe United we stand, divided we fall ….. but what are we at present?
Apr 01, 2015
Tuesday, 09 August 2005Chris SNUGGS, ISUGA
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The Disunited States of Europe?
Europe
United we stand, divided we fall …..
but what are we at present?
Racial, religious & territorial
issues in Europe
ECONOMIC &/or POLITICALBelgium: Walloons - FlemishGermany: East-westItaly: North - SouthGreece: MacedoniaGreece/Turkey: CyprusBritain/Spain: GibraltarNew Europe: Olde Europe
ONGOING VIOLENCESpain: Basques
UNEASY TRUCEBalkans: Muslims - Serbs
CEASEFIRE - CESSATIONIreland: Protestants - Catholics
DORMANT or EXTINCTFrance: Bretons - French
Tuesday, 09 August 2005Chris SNUGGS, ISUGA
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The Disunited States of Europe?
The Races of Europe
Immigration Problems
Turks - GermanyArabs - France/SpainPakistanis - UKAlbanians etc - Italy
Tuesday, 09 August 2005Chris SNUGGS, ISUGA
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The Disunited States of Europe?
EuropeanLanguages
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The Disunited States of Europe?
Religion
Christianity:
- Protestant
- Catholic
Islam
Jewish Religion
The IronCurtain
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The Disunited States of Europe?
THE BALKANS
F.Y.R.O.M.
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The Disunited States of Europe?
CYPRUS
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The Disunited States of Europe?
CYPRUS
small country, but major problem for Europe; Turkish entry depends on resolution
should Turkey be admitted to EU? Is it "European"?
strategic geographical position
large, but non-extreme Muslim country
large number of Turks in Germany (Gastarbeiter)
entry contentious within & between European states
human rights problems: death penalty etc
Turkey's attitude to its past: Kurdish problem, Armenian massacre - 1915 to 1918
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The Disunited States of Europe?
TURKEY
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The Disunited States of Europe?
TURKEY
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The Disunited States of Europe?CYPRUS
Ottoman Turks ruled Cyprus for over three centuries; ceded to Britain in 1878
Independence from Britain achieved August 1960, after four-year military struggle between UK and guerrillas of EOKA (National Organization of Cypriot Fighters) who sought ‘enosis’ (union with Greece) - which was anathema to Turkish community
political leader of liberation movement, Archbishop Makarios - also head of island’s Greek Orthodox Church - returned from exile and elected President December 1959
island’s new constitution was elaborate compromise between British and rival Greek and Turkish communities, between whom considerable distrust remained
as part of deal, British kept two large tracts of land for military purposes, known as ‘Sovereign Base Areas’ and accounting for 5 per cent of island’s total area
deal fell apart in July 1974, when Makarios was deposed by military coup (allegedly backed by military regime in power in Greece)
within days, Turkish troops arrived on northern coast of Cyprus, ‘invited’ by Turkish Cypriot leader, Rauf Denktash, to intervene in order to protect Turkish community on island
Greeks failed to respond effectively, not least because of simultaneous collapse of military junta in Athens, besides which Greek-Cypriot-controlled National Guard was insufficiently equipped to combat fully mobilized army
after Turkish army had taken control of northern third of island, ceasefire arranged under UN auspices
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The Disunited States of Europe? CYPRUS
island partitioned ever since and UN peacekeeping forces maintain truce
in November 1983, Turkish part of island proclaimed itself Kuzey Kibris Turk Cumhuriyeti (‘Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus’, TRNC) - however, formal recognition of self-styled country only granted by Turkey and a few statelets
‘TRNC’ still run by Rauf Denktash - dominant political figure in enclave for almost 30 years - at last two presidential elections - April 1995 and April 2000 - re-elected with comfortable
majorities
for vast majority of international community, legitimate government of Republic of Cyprus (Kiprikai Demokratika) is Greek-Cypriot administration in Nicosia - until February 2003 led for a decade by President Glafkos Clerides - that month, he was deposed at most recent presidential election by Tassos Papadopoulos, candidate of center-right Komma Dimokratika (Democratic Party)
present government is coalition of DIKO, AKEL - Communist Party which has long been single largest force in Greek-Cypriot politics - and smaller KISOS party
principal issue for Greek-Cypriot government remains same; how to normalize relations with ‘TRNC’ and reunify island.
numerous diplomatic initiatives ended in failure - main sticking points are:
- balance and concentration of power within any unified government
- Turkish troop concentrations in north
- return of property relinquished by Greek refugees and since occupied by Turkish settlers
BELGIUM
Walloons
Flemish
The Disunited States of Europe?
BELGIUM - the Walloons (wŏlūnz'),
group of people living in S Belgium who traditionally spoke dialect of French called Walloon, but who today mostly part speak standard French
Walloons, numbering some 3.5 million, reside mostly in provinces of Hainaut, Liège, Namur, Luxembourg, and Walloon Brabant, in contrast to Dutch-speaking Flemings of northern provinces
movement for reviving Walloon literature centered in Liège in the 19th cent.; today the language is considered moribund
since medieval times economic and social background of Walloons has differed radically from that of Flemings, and cleavage became even more pronounced with Industrial Revolution
Walloon part of Belgium contains major mining areas and heavy industries, while Flemings engage mainly in agriculture, manufacturing (particularly textiles), and
shipping
tension between Walloons and Flemings has long been critical political issue; in 1970 plan was approved recognizing cultural autonomy of Belgium's three national communities: Dutch-speaking Flemings of the north, the French speaking Walloons of the south, and bilingual Brussels
The Disunited States of Europe?
GERMANY
•reunification 1990
•massive economic gaps
•OstMark given parity with Dmark
•billions transferred west to east
•special tax on "Wessies"
•not only economic, but cultural gulf
The Disunited States of Europe?
bureaucracy
high social benefits
endemic unemployment
public refusal to give up "acquis"
socialist/capitalist divide still strong ….
ITALY
•industrial - bulk of economy
•many small/medium business
•many family-owned business
•fashion, style, engineering adaptability was trump card
•large black market (27%?)
•serious competitivity problems
•some call for return of lira …
North of Rome
South of Rome
•agricultural - little industry
•earthquake-prone
•Vesuvius!!
The Disunited States of Europe?
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The Disunited States of Europe?
GIBRALTAR
ceded to Britain in perpetuity bythe Treaty of Utrecht, 13 JULY 1713
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The Disunited States of Europe?
BASQUE COUNTRY
many Basques want independence
long-running "terrorist" (or "liberation") movement
considerable autonomy granted by
Central government
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The Disunited States of Europe?
EuropeanLanguages
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The Disunited States of Europe?
Religion
Tuesday, 09 August 2005Chris SNUGGS, ISUGA
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The Disunited States of Europe?
European Nation States
The IronCurtain
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The Disunited States of Europe?
Tuesday, 09 August 2005Chris SNUGGS, ISUGA
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The Disunited States of Europe?
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The Disunited States of Europe?
EU GDP GROWTH - 2005
1,1
2,6
3,6
1,6 1,61,9 2,0
3,84,0
5,05,2
5,5
6,0
0,81,0 1,1 1,2
1,72,0 2,1 2,2 2,3
2,7 2,8 2,9 3,03,3
3,7 3,8 3,9 3,9 4,0
4,4
4,9 4,9
6,0
6,4
7,2
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
5,5
6,0
6,5
7,0
7,5
8,0
% Growth
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The Disunited States of Europe?
EU & EFTA INFLATION - 2004/2005
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
Latv
iaG
reec
eLu
xem
bour
gS
pain
Bel
gium
Hun
gary
Est
onia
Cyp
rus
Italy
Slo
vaki
aIr
elan
dA
ustr
ia
Uni
ted
Kin
gdom
Den
mar
kLi
thua
nia
Fran
ceN
ethe
rlan
dsN
orw
ayM
alta
Pol
and
Por
tuga
lG
erm
any
Finl
and
Slo
veni
aC
zech
Rep
ublic
Sw
eden
%
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The Disunited States of Europe?
4,5
4,6
4,7
4,8
4,8
5,0
5,4
5,9
6,0
6,3
6,7
7,3
7,8
8,0
8,3
8,8
9,2
9,5
9,7
9,8
10,5
10,8
11,0
18,0
18,8
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Ireland
Netherlands
United Kingdom
Austria
Luxembourg
Cyprus
Denmark
Hungary
Slovenia
Sweden
Portugal
Malta
Belgium
Italy
Czech Republic
Finland
Estonia
Germany
France
Latvia
Greece
Lithuania
Spain
Slovakia
Poland
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The Disunited States of Europe?
EU PUBLIC BALANCE ACCOUNTS - 2004Ja
pan
Uni
ted
Stat
es
Can
ada
Cro
atia Tu
rkey
Icel
and Bul
garia
Nor
way
Euro
-zon
e
Euro
-zon
e (1
2 co
untr
ies)
EU (1
5 co
untr
ies)
EU (2
5 co
untr
ies)
Gre
ece M
alta
Pola
nd
Hun
gary
Cyp
rus
Fran
ce
Ger
man
y
Slov
akia
Uni
ted
Kin
gdom
Cze
ch R
epub
lic Italy
Port
ugal
Lith
uani
a
Net
herla
nds
Slov
enia
Aus
tria
Luxe
mbo
urg
Latv
ia
Spai
n
Bel
gium Ire
land
Swed
en
Esto
nia
Finl
and
Den
mar
k
Rom
ania
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
%
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The Disunited States of Europe?EU Member State World
1 Luxembourg 32 Estonia 43 Republic of Ireland 54 United Kingdom 75 Denmark 86 Sweden 147 Finland 158 Netherlands 179 Germany 1810 Austria 1911 Belgium 21= Cyprus =13 Lithuania 2314 Italy 2615 Latvia 2816 Malta 2917 Spain 3118 Czech Republic 3319 Hungary 3520 Slovakia 3621 Portugal 3722 Poland 4123 France 4424 Slovenia 4525 Greece 59
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EU Member State WORLD
1 Sweden 2
2 Netherlands 5
3 Belgium 6
4 Republic of Ireland 10
5 United Kingdom 12
6 Finland 13
7 Austria 14
8 Luxembourg 15
9 France 16
10 Denmark 17
11 Germany 19
12 Spain 20
13 Italy 21
14 Greece 24
15 Portugal 26
16 Slovenia 27
17 Cyprus 30
18 Malta 31
19 Czech Republic 32
20 Estonia 36
21 Poland 37
22 Hungary 38
23 Lithuania 41
24 Slovakia 42
25 Latvia 50
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Tuesday, 09 August 2005Chris SNUGGS, ISUGA
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The Disunited States of Europe?
Surveys
World EU Used
1 1 Finland 8 0.4
2 2 Denmark 8 0.3
5 3 Sweden 10 0.2
7 4 Luxembourg 5 0.5
7 4 Netherlands 9 0.3
10 6 United Kingdom 11 0.5
15 7 Austria 8 0.5
18 8 Germany 10 1.0
20 9 Belgium 8 0.9
20 9 Spain 10 1.0
23 11 Ireland 8 0.9
25 12 France 10 0.9
25 12 Portugal 9 1.0
27 14 Slovenia 9 1.4
29 15 Estonia 8 0.6
31 16 Italy 11 1.1
33 17 Hungary 11 0.5
36 18 Lithuania 7 1.9
44 19 Greece 8 0.7
45 20 Poland 11 1.1
52 21 Czech Republic 10 0.8
52 21 Latvia 4 0.2
52 21 Slovak Republic 8 0.6
Standard Deviation
CORRUPTION INDEX
Country RANK
Rank State Years
1 Andorra 83,49
2 San Marino 81,43
3 Guernsey 80,04
4 Switzerland 79,99
5 Sweden 79,97
6 Italy 79,40
7 Gibraltar 79,38
8 France 79,28
9 Monaco 79,27
10 Liechtenstein 79,25
11 Spain 79,23
12 Norway 79,09
13 Jersey 78,93
14 Faroe Islands 78,90
15 Greece 78,89
16 Netherlands 78,74
17 Malta 78,43
18 Germany 78,42
19 Belgium 78,29
20 Austria 78,17
21 United Kingdom 78,16
22 Man, Isle of 77,98
23 Finland 77,92
24 Luxembourg 77,66
25 Ireland 77,35
EU LIFE EXPECTANCY
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The Disunited States of Europe?
EUROLAND (12) NOT IN EUROLAND (13)
Austria Cyprus
Belgium Czech Republic
Finland Denmark
France Estonia
Germany Hungary
Greece Latvia
Italy Lithuania
Luxembourg Malta
Netherlands Poland
Portugal Slovakia
Republic of Ireland Slovenia
Spain Sweden
United Kingdom
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The Disunited States of Europe?
The CAP & the Budget
Money, money, money!!!!
The EU BUDGET - CONTRIBUTORS IN 2004
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The Disunited States of Europe?
The Common Agricultural Policy
introduced in 1960 - aim to provide a reasonable standard of living for farmers and reasonably-priced food for all
intention also (especially in France) to maintain traditional pattern of farming - avoid massive drift away from country to cities
facilitated free movement of farming products within the EU
after lean war years, concern to ensure reliable food supply and self-sufficiency
this aim succeeded; in fact, there is now oversupply
oversupply has led in past to so-called "butter-mountains" and food dumping
A Success?
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The Disunited States of Europe?
The Common Agricultural Policy
medium and larger farms are paid not to produce; smaller ones rely on subsidies
some rich farmers are paid to leave their fields fallow (unused)
subsidies do not go to all farmers; mainly to dairy farming
the CAP accounts for 42% of the EU budget, limiting investment in other areas
it distorts world trade in agriculture; developing countries are particularly penalised; they can't penetrate the EU
cost of subsidizing poor farmers in new EU countries will put unbearable strains on budget; reform is essential
reform will be strongly resisted by current beneficiaries
Britain and France in particular have immovable positions
A Failure?
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The Disunited States of Europe?
The British & French positions on agriculture
Britain said it will veto any cut in the 4.4bn euro (£3bn) rebate unless farm subsidies are overhauled, a stance which puts it at loggerheads with France.
French President Jacques Chirac refused to discuss any cut in farm subsidies and says the rebate should "under no circumstances be linked to a reform of farm expenditure."
From the EU summit meeting in June, 2005
Where the money goes --->
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The Disunited States of Europe?
The Subsidization of Farming in the World
Country % support
New Zealand 5
EU 34
N America 20
Japan 60
AGRICULTURE
limits this places on African exports to rich countries now a hot, political topic
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The Disunited States of Europe?
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The Disunited States of Europe?
Symptomatic of EU budgetary problems … The British rebate
French President Jacques Chirac defends
French EU farming subsidies against the British, wielding their
famous rebate …
"The problem is the imbalance of the budget: 40% of the budget goes to meet the needs of 5% of the population and 2% of European jobs." Tony Blair, July 2005
EAST EUROPE
fears Russiapro-USA - anglophile
low taxationlots to catch up
businessEU money
development
The EuroTango SPAINPORTUGAL
EU cashbusiness
rapid developmentSouth American
leanings
HOLLAND
usually the good guysbusiness-oriented
fed upimmigration
paying too muchtaken for granted
GERMANY
industrial powerhousemajor exporterunemployment
East-West dividepolitical turmoilover-regulated
high taxless anti-US
FRANCE
anti-USA, statistpowerful lobbies
(farmers, civil servants)high taxationcultural fears
"social model"France's place in world
insular tendancy
ITALY
style, chicsmall businesses
big North/South dividestruggling to compete
call for lira returndodgy politics
BALTICS
dynamic, go-aheadambitious
anti-regulationhigh potential
fear Russia
"Olde Europe"
IRELAND
incoming investmentfavourable
business climategrab the money while it lasts …
UK
common marketclose to USA
"liberal" economyanti-regulationanti-Brusselslower taxation
SCANDINAVIA
detached,calmuncorruptible
business-orientedhigh taxation
common market
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The Disunited States of Europe?
A View from the USA Robert J Samuelson, "Washington Post" - June 15th, 2005
Europe is slowly going bust - not just because it's overshadowed by Asia and USA
Europe's birthrates have dropped well below the replacement rate of 2.1 children for each woman of childbearing age
for Western Europe as a whole, rate is 1.5 - it's 1.4 in Germany and 1.3 in Italy
already about 17% of the population is 65 and older
by 2030 that would be 25%, and by 2050 almost 33%
How can European economies support so many old people?
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The Disunited States of Europe?
Europe's economy already weakening - in 1970s annual growth for the Euroland countries averaged almost 3%; from 2001 to 2004 the annual average was 1.2 percent
in 1974 those countries had unemployment of 2.4 percent; in 2004 the rate was 8.9%
Western Europeans feel their way of life threatened.
one solution to low birthrates is higher immigration
but many Europeans don't like the immigrants they have and don't want more
one way to revive growth would be to reduce social benefits, taxes and regulations
but that would imperil Europe's "social model," which supposedly blends capitalism's efficiency and socialism's compassion
The European Economy ….
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The Disunited States of Europe?
What about the USA, as reported by OECD?
unemployment: with high unemployment benefits, almost half of Western Europe's jobless out of work a year or more; U.S. figure about 12 percent
early retirement: in 2003 about 60 percent of Americans aged 55 to 64 had jobs. comparable figures for France, Italy and Germany were 37%, 30% and 39%
Europeans like early retirement, high jobless benefits and long vacations
sources of this benevolence (high taxes, stiff regulations) weaken economy - with ageing populations, contradictions will only grow
some research suggests that high old-age benefits partly explain low birthrates - with the state paying for old age, who needs children as caregivers?
high taxes may also deter couples from assuming added costs of children
other countries are also aging and face problems similar to Europe's, but the ageing is more pronounced in Europe and a few other nations (e.g. Japan), precisely because birthrates are so low
U.S. birthrate, for example, is 2.1; even removing births to Hispanic Americans, it's about 1.9
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The Disunited States of Europe?
What about the USA, as reported by OECD?
Europeans could do something about their predicament - but mostly they're not
some countries (Britain, Ireland, the Netherlands) have acted, and there are differences between East and West Europe
But in general Europe is immobilized by its problems
classic dilemma of democracy - too many people benefit from status quo to change it; but status quo isn't sustainable
status quo in France called "les acquis" (e.g. train drivers, school & university teachers)
even modest efforts in France and Germany to curb social benefits have triggered backlashes and government cave-ins
many Europeans - maybe most - live in a state of delusion: believing things should continue as before; they see almost any change as menacing
All this bad for Europe - and the United States: a weak European economy is one reason the world
economy is shaky and so dependent on American growth
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The Disunited States of Europe?
Europe is preoccupied with divisions at home, but is looking to the past
Europe not strong American ally, not only because it disagrees with some U.S. policies but also because it doesn't want to make the commitments required
unwilling to address their genuine problems, Europeans become more reflexively critical of America
this gives the impression that they're active on the world stage, even as they're quietly acquiescing in their own decline
French fear of cultural swamping adds to the mixture as does "Olde Europe's" search for a role on world stage
France traditionally anti-American (Anglo-Saxon): de Gaulle prevented UK entry into EU and once withdrew from NATO and find alternative to it
France's schizophrenia towards UK and USA ….
Iraq …..