[email protected] @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. Presents Presenter David J. Anderson Lean Kanban Central Europe Hamburg November 2013 Release 1.0 Kanban and evolu0onary management Lessons we can learn from Bruce Lee’s journey in mar4al arts
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Presents
Presenter David J. Anderson
Lean Kanban
Central Europe Hamburg
November 2013 Release 1.0
Kanban and evolu0onary management
Lessons we can learn from Bruce Lee’s journey in mar4al arts
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Bruce Lee rejected tradi0onal teaching and styles of Chinese mar0al arts
• There are some parallels in the story of Bruce Lee and the emergence of his approach to Kung Fu
• Lee rejected the idea of following a particular style of Chinese Martial Arts
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Snake
Monkey
Mantis
Tiger
Kung Fu Panda simplified the art to only four styles
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“Dry land swimming” provides a false sense of capability
• The only way to learn is to train with a live opponent
• Lee rejected the many styles of martial arts for various reasons, mainly that they gave the practitioners a false sense of capability, putting them at risk in real combat situations
• He was against Kata (learning patterns without an opponent) and described them in derogatory terms such as "dry land swimming.“
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Lee wanted to start from first principles and core concepts
Four ranges of combat • Kicking • Punching • Trapping • Grappling
*Apparently s4ll called the Five Ways, there are actually now six **with the later inclusion of SAA **The fact that The Five Ways has six elements is evidence of evolu4on in ac4on ***Incorporated core ideas such as "center line" and single fluid mo4on from Wing Chun and parrying from Epee Fencing**** ****Not a Chinese Mar4al Art and hence evidence of "no limita4on as limita4on"
Five* Ways of AJack*** • Single Direct AJack (SDA) • AJack By Combina4on (ABC) • Progressive Indirect AJack (PIA)
• (Hand) Immobiliza4on AJack (HIA)
• AJack by Drawing (ABD) • Single Angle AJack (SAA)
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Lee’s approach s0ll needed a name
• He named his approach Jeet Kune Do - the way of the intercepting fist - after one of the practices taught in his method
• He was quick to point out that it was just a name, a way of communicating a set of ideas. He was passionate that practitioners shouldn't get hung up on the name or the inclusion of any one move or action.
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Jeet Kune Do
Using no way as way
Having no limita4on as limita4on
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Jeet Kune Do encourages development of a uniquely personal style
• a framework from which to pick & develop a personal style
• an evolutionary approach where adoption of maneuvers is learned & reinforced by training with an opponent
• Nothing was sacred
"absorb that which is useful“
discard the remainder
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Training with an opponent provides the core feedback loop to drive adapta0on
Lee pursued ever more elaborate approaches to protected real combat training to enable the closed loop learning that was core to the evolutionary nature of JKD
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Kata are not adap0ve
In comparison with JKD, patterned styles of martial arts taught with "kata" were open loop and not adaptive. There is no learning from practicing kata
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Mar0al Arts viewed through a Cynefin* Lens
Simple
Complicated Complex
Chao4c
Best Prac4ce
Good Prac4ces Emergent Prac4ces
Novel Prac4ces Individual
Kata
PaMerned Styles
Jeet Kune Do
*hJp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cynefin
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Lee’s genius was recognizing hand-‐to-‐hand combat is an unordered problem
• Patterned styles are perfectly good for controlled circumstances such as competition
• Sporting combat is an ordered domain problem
• Street fighting is not orderly and therefore emergent practice is required
• Unordered problem required a new philosophy
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Tradi0onal Change is an A to B process
• A is where you are now. B is a destination. • B is either defined (from a methodology definition) • or designed (by tailoring a framework or using a model
based approach such as VSM* or TOC TP**) • To get from A to B, a change agency*** will guide a
transition initiative to install B into the organization
***either an internal process group or external consultants
Current Process Future
Process
Defined
Designed
transition
* Value stream mapping, ** Theory of Constraints Thinking Processes
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Change ini0a0ves fail (even) more oSen than projects
Change initiatives often fail (aborted) or produce lack luster results They fail to institutionalize resulting in regression back to old behavior
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Daniel Kahneman has given us a simple model for how we process informa0on
Daniel Kahneman
System 1 Sensory Percep0on PaMern Matching
System 2 Logical Inference
Engine
Learning by Experience
Learning from theory
FAST But slow to learn
SLOW But fast to learn
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How we process change…
Daniel Kahneman
Silicon-‐based life form
Carbon-‐based life form
I logically evaluate change using System 2
I adapt quickly
I feel change emo0onally using System 1
I adapt slowly
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Adop0ng new processes challenges people psychologically & sociologically
• New roles attack identity • New responsibilities using new
techniques & practices threaten self-esteem & social status
• Most people resist most change because individually they have more to lose than gain
• It is safer to be conservative and stick to current practices and avoid shaking up the current social hierarchy
• Only the brave, the reckless or the desperate will pursue grand changes
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The Kanban Method…
• Rejects the traditional approach to change
• Believes, it is better to avoid resistance than to push harder against it • Don’t install new processes • Don’t reorganize
• Is designed for carbon-based life forms • Evolutionary change that is
humane
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The Kanban Method…
• Catalyzes improvement through use of kanban systems and visual boards*
• Takes its name from the use of kanban but it is just a name
• Anyone who thinks Kanban is just about kanban (boards & systems) is truly mistaken
*also known as "kanban" in Chinese and in Japanese when wriJen with Chinese characters
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The Kanban Method is a new approach to improvement
Kanban is a
method
without methodology
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Water flows around the rock
“be like water”
the rock represents resistance
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Kanban should be like water*
In change management, resistance is from the people involved and it is always emotional (system 1) To flow around the rock, we must learn how to avoid emotional resistance
* hJp://joecampbell.wordpress.com/2009/05/13/be-‐like-‐water/
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Principles behind the Kanban Method
• Start with what you do now • Agree to pursue evolutionary change • Initially, respect roles, responsibilities and job
titles • Encourage acts of leadership at all levels
The first 3 principles were specifically chosen to address System 1 objections, to flow around the rock of emotional resistance in humans
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The Kanban Lens
Kanban asks us to view the world of work through a new lens
• Creative work is service-oriented • Service delivery involves workflow • Workflow involves a series of knowledge discovery
activities
Kanban would be less applicable if a service-orientated view of work were difficult to conceive or the work was sufficiently new that a definable series of knowledge discovery activities had not emerged
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6 Prac0ces Enable Process Evolu0on
The Kanban Method Visualize Limit Work-‐in-‐progress Manage Flow Make Policies Explicit Implement Feedback Loops Improve Collabora4vely, Evolve Experimentally
(using models & the scien4fic method)
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Start with what you do now
• The Kanban Method evolved with the principle that it “should be like water” - enable change while avoiding sources of resistance
• With Kanban you start with what you do now, and "kanbanize" it, catalyzing the evolutionary process into action. Changes to processes in use will occur
• Evaluating whether a change is truly an improvement is done using fitness criteria that evaluate an external outcome
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Fitness criteria are metrics that measure observable external outcomes
• Fitness criteria are metrics that measure things customers or other external stakeholders value • Delivery time • Quality • Predictability • Safety (conformance to
regulatory requirements) • or metrics that value actual
outcomes such as • customer satisfaction • employee satisfaction
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Net Promoter Score is a Fitness Evaluator but is it the only metric we need?
• Steve Denning has proposed that Net Promoter Score (NPS) is the only metric that business should care about
• NPS is interesting because it is a fitness evaluator. It will indicate whether a business (or product) is likely to survive & thrive
• But is it the only metric we need?
Steve Denning
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Net Promoter Score is a way of evalua0ng customer sa0sfac0on
• In a general sense and at an abstract level NPS tells us whether customers like what we offer but we cannot know what they truly care about
• For the abstract problem of, “Can we measure customer satisfaction?” NPV is a reasonably good measure, if used properly
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The problem with Net Promoter Score is that it doesn’t tell you what to do!
• Net Promoter Score (if used properly) will tell you whether your product or service is likely to continue selling
• However, it doesn’t give you any clues about what to do or how to improve
• If NPS is your only metric you’re left to randomly experiment to generate a higher score
• Like biological evolution, random mutation is expensive, takes a long time & involves luck
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Can we be smarter by using beMer fitness criteria than NPS?
• If we have a service-oriented view of the world, and want to evaluate service delivery then we already know what customers care about • Lead time • Quality • Predictability • Safety (or conformance to regulatory reqs)
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If we order a pizza we know what we care about…
• Fast delivery • lead time from order to
delivery • Accuracy and quality
• Pepperoni not Hawaiian • Still warm on delivery
• Predictable Delivery • If they say “ready in 30
minutes”, we want delivery in 25-35 minutes
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If we need a medical procedure…
• Short waiting time • Queuing time from diagnosis to procedure
• Short procedure & recovery time • Fast procedure, fast recovery time, implies minimally
invasive surgery and use of technology to reduce the craft input and eliminate variability
• Predictability of schedule & outcome • Procedure should proceed as scheduled • Outcome should have high probability of success
• Safe • Low risk of complications • Regulatory health & safety procedures followed
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Validate Fitness Criteria with real customers
• It is necessary to keep checking that the fitness criteria we are measuring do indeed matter to customers
• Variation in what matters to different customers provides the opportunity to segment demand and offer different classes of service within your kanban system • e.g. Will you pay extra to have your pizza delivered
faster?
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Which system is fiMer?
We don’t know! System B is faster but without understanding customer expectations, both may be fit enough
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
5 10 15 20 25 30 40 45 55 65 More
Lead Time (Days)
System A
Frequency
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
5 10 15 20 25 30 More
Lead Time in Days
System B
Frequency
Mean 17 days Mean 12 days
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Measuring delivery against expecta0on
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
5 10 15 20 25 30 40 45 55 65 More
Lead Time (Days)
System A
Frequency
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-‐25 -‐20 -‐5 0 5 10 20 30 35 40 More
Lead Time Expecta0on Spread (Days)
System A
Frequency
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
5 10 15 20 25 30 More
Lead Time in Days
System B
Frequency
0
10
20
30
40
50
-‐15 -‐10 -‐5 0 5 10 15 20 More
Lead Time Expecta0on Spread (Days)
System B
Frequency
Mean 17 days Mean 12 days
System B is clearly fiJer! System B delivers 5/7 within expecta4ons System A only delivers 3/7 within expecta4ons
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Business Risks, Fitness Criteria & Classes of Service should all align
• If your kanban system is designed properly the classes of service you are offering should align with the true business risks in the domain
• And the metrics being used to evaluate system capability, should be fitness criteria that are derived from the business risk being managed
• For example, cost of delay requires us to measure lead time
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Assessing fitness to pursue a short Shelf-‐Life strategy
Short (days, weeks,
months)
Medium (months, quarters, 1-2 years)
Long (years,
decades)
Lead
Tim
e
Short
Long
Del
iver
y
Business Agility
Rep
leni
shm
ent
Frequent
Seldom
Frequent
Seldom
Pre
dict
abili
ty
High
Low
Are our business agility & predictability fit
enough for our strategy?
Kanban system dynamics
If we plan to pursue short shelf-life opportunities, we must measure predictability, lead time, replenishment & delivery frequency as fitness criteria. Expectations are set based on our chosen strategy to pursue short shelf-life opportunities
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Evolu0onary change has no defined end point
Evolving Process
Roll forward
Roll back
Initial Process
Future process is emergent
Evaluate Fitness
Evaluate Fitness
Evaluate Fitness Evaluate
Fitness
Evaluate Fitness
We don’t know the end-‐point but we do know our emergent
process is fiMer!
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Kanban viewed through a Cynefin* Lens
Simple
Complicated Complex
Chao4c
Best Prac4ce
Good Prac4ces Emergent Prac4ces
Novel Prac4ces Simple Kanban System
Deep Kanban System
Kanban Method
*hJp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cynefin
Single work type Single class of service
Multiple work types Multiple classes of service Kanban systems alone aren’t
enough in the unordered domain
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Ins0tu0onalize feedback systems to enable evolu0onary change
Operations Review
System Capability Review
Standup Meeting
manager to subordinate(s) (both 1-‐1 and 1-‐team)
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Disintermediate! Risks, fitness criteria & classes of service should
be explicit & transparent
Operations Review
System Capability Review
Standup Meeting
manager to subordinate(s) (both 1-‐1 and 1-‐team)
Expose risk, classes of service & fitness criteria
at all 3 levels of feedback
Lead 4me Quality Predictability
Lead 4me Quality Predictability
Lead 4me Quality Predictability
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Is there room for improvement?
Delivered
Pool of
Ideas
F
H E
C A
I
Committed
Ready For
Delivery
G
D
GY PB
DE MN
2 ∞
P1
AB
Lead Time
Ongoing
Development Testing
Done Verification Acceptance 3 3
Waiting Waiting Waiting Working
* Hakan Forss, Lean Kanban France, Oct 2013 ** 2% reported by Zsolt Fabok, Lean Kanban France, Oct 2012
Working
∞ ∞ Flow efficiency measures the
percentage of total lead time is spent actually adding value (or knowledge)
versus waiting Flow efficiency% = Work Time x 100%
Lead Time Flow efficiencies of 1-5% are
commonly reported*, ** Multitasking means time spent in
working columns is often waiting time
Waiting
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Other metrics should only be used as input to models to drive improvement
• Flow efficiency will help us identify wasteful delay
• Time blocked and blocker clustering will help identify wasteful delay from specific assignable causes such as vendor dependency
• Metrics like this help us focus improvement initiatives to improve the fitness criteria results – e.g. removing delay improves lead time
hJp://www.klausleopold.com/2013/09/blocker-‐clusters-‐problems-‐are-‐not.html
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Know why you are using a metric!
• Is your metric a fitness criteria that assesses system capability and indicates fitness for purpose and likelihood of surviving and thriving by satisfying customers?
• Or, is your metric evaluating and guiding a specific change to improve fitness of the system?
• If neither, you don’t need it! • Metrics guiding improvements should be
temporary & discarded when no longer needed
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Jeet Kune Do is a framework for figh0ng
JKD contains a martial art framework. It contains a core set of principles based on an underlying theory of fighting and vulnerability of the human body: concepts such as "center line" from Wing Chun, for example.
Center line
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Kanban is a framework for service-‐delivery management
• Kanban is a management method. It directly addresses service delivery and evolutionary change (management)
• It creates a mechanism for framing operational decisions such as • Risk (or Value) trumps Flow, Flow trumps Waste
Elimination • Use of pull systems and the consequent concept of
deferred commitment (real option theory)
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Kanban may be analogous to JKD for Service Delivery Management
• Kanban provides a management framework for evolving uniquely tailored workflows for improved service delivery
• Kanban embraces the idea of “using no way as way” – evolving your own style of service delivery
• Kanban embraces the idea of “no limitation as limitation” by encouraging the use of models from many domains to improve workflows and service-delivery
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The Kanban Method makes a business fiMer for purpose
• The Kanban Method enables a business to improve its service delivery so that it is fitter for purpose and more likely to survive & thrive
• The Kanban Method enables an adaptive capability within the organization so that it can adapt to changing demands and other risks in the external environment
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Lean Startup is another evolu0onary approach
• Lean Startup focuses on validating assumptions about the fitness for purpose of a product or service offering
• It does this by “engaging the enemy” directly using techniques to create “safe-to-fail” experiments
• For example, “Fake a Feature”
Build-‐Measure-‐Learn Cycle
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Lean Startup makes a product or service fiMer for purpose
• By use of techniques that validate assumptions early and quickly, Lean Startup enables a product or service offering to evolve quickly
• In doing so the product or service becomes fitter for purpose and is more likely to survive and thrive
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Like Kanban, Lean Startup is a Pragma9c approach
• Lean Startup suggests that you don’t speculate about the future behavior of people, rather you set up experimental situations and observe what they actually do
• In this respect, Lean Startup is like behavioral economics applied to product or service design
• Like Lee’s philosophy in JKD, it engages the opponent (uncertainty) directly
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Businesses need to do both – be adaptable and adapt their products
• Adaptive capability enables a business to insure it is doing things right and continuing to do them well in the face of a changing external environment
• Adaptive product or service design enables a business to insure it is doing the right thing and continuing to offer the right things to a fickle and evolving market
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Together Kanban & Lean Startup bring the philosophy of JKD to modern crea0ve
knowledge work industries
• Don’t adopt a methodology or patterned style • Engage the opponent (uncertainty & risk) directly
in a safe environment • Learn from fast feedback • Adapt a unique product, service or method of
service delivery that is fitter-for-purpose
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The future of crea0ve knowledge work should be inspired by Bruce Lee & JKD
Our opponents are uncertainty & risk. Engage directly Visualize & make them explicit throughout the workflow & at all 3 levels of reporting Teach beginners to set up safe-to-fail, learning environments at the individual, workflow & business unit levels Evolutionary methods are required to help us manage in complex environments If humans are involved the environment is complex Fitness-for-purpose & sustainability come from developing strong adaptive capability
Train with live opponents No kata
No "dry land swimming“
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About
[Replace with personal bio] David Anderson is a thought leader in managing effective software teams. He leads a training, consulting, publishing and event planning business dedicated to developing, promoting and implementing sustainable evolutionary…
He has 30 years experience in the high technology industry starting with computer games in the early 1980’s. He has led software teams delivering superior productivity and quality using innovative agile methods at large companies such as Sprint and Motorola.
David is the pioneer of the Kanban Method an agile and evolutionary approach to change. His latest book, published in June 2012, is, Lessons in Agile Management – On the Road to Kanban.
David is a founder of the Lean Kanban Inc., a business dedicated to assuring quality of training in Lean and Kanban for knowledge workers throughout the world.
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Joe Cooper first blogged about the similarity in philosophy between the Kanban Method and the teachings of Bruce Lee. He coined the phrase “Kanban should be like water”. The data on slides 45 & 46 was provided by Raymond Keating of CME Group. This presentation was inspired by Alistair Cockburn’s blog post “The End of Methodology”. My approach to change was influenced by an observation from Peter Senge, “People do not resist change, they resist being changed!” “Safe-to-fail Experiment” is a term used by Dave Snowden in his Cynefin framework. Steve Denning proposed NPS as the only metric that matters in his book, “Radical Management.”
Acknowledgements
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