Tt30 of the Club of Rome and its innovation potential for assuring the sustainability of our society Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil. Ildiko Tulbure University “1.

tt30 of the Club of Romeand its innovation potential for assuring the

sustainability of our society

Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil. Ildiko TulbureUniversity “1 December 1918”, Alba Iulia, Romania

PD at the University of Technology Clausthal, Germany

tt30 of the Club of Rome and the Club of Rome

E-mail: [email protected]

© Tulbure 2007

CONTENT

1. General remarks about the Club of Rome and about tt30

2. tt30 projects 3. tt30-Web of the Problematique 4. Overcoming Technological Divides 5. Some selected results of the project work –

Sustainability in Europe? 6. Conclusions

© Tulbure 2007

1. General remarks about the Club of Rome

• Global think tank and catalyst for change

• 1972: CoR-report „The Limits to Growth“ -> incubator for environmental movement

• Long-term, interdisciplinary and holistic approach

• „World Problematique“: Complex set of interdependent challenges the world is facing

© Tulbure 2007

Founded in the year 2001 during the kick-off meeting

in Hamburg, Germany

Provide the perspective of the young generation on the World Problematique

Contribution to „Resolutique“ with concrete requests and proposals for solutions - projects

General remarks about tt30 of the Club of Rome

© Tulbure 2007

Participants of tt30

- Maximum 30 participants

- Age: 25 - 35

- Diverse Backgrounds (Academia, Business, Politics, NGO,...)

- From all around the world, covering Eastern & Western Europe, the Middle East, Asia, Africa, North & Latin America

© Tulbure 2007

Organisation of tt30- Using intensively the web-platform

- Leadership: Coordinating team reporting to the CoR Secretary General

- Close cooperation with the European Support Center in Vienna and the National Associations

- tt30 on national level - in Germany

- Annual Meetings: 2001 in Hamburg, Germanyuntil now 2002 in Valencia, Spain

2003 in Rome, Italy2004 in Amman, Jordan2005 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil2006 in Abuja, Nigeria

© Tulbure 2007

2. Most important tt30 - projects

1. Overcoming Technological Divides  2. Values Systems, Consumption Patterns and

Diversity  

3. Knowledge Transfer Across Cultures: A Comparative Analysis of the

West, South East Asia & West Africa 

4. Acceleration as a Threat to Sustainable Development

© Tulbure 2007

3. tt30 Web of the Problematique

• It is actually the tt30 perspective on the challenges of the world in 20 years perspective

• Makes this complex concept understandable

• Shows concretely how tt30 sees the World Problematique

© Tulbure 2007

tt30 Web of the Problematique

3 Fundamental dimensions

UNEQUAL ACCESSTO GOODS, INFORMATION

AND TECHNOLOGY

LACK OF

GOOD GOVERNANCE

CONFLICTS AND DISRUPTIONS OF

VALUE SYSTEMS

© Tulbure 2007

tt30 Web of Problematique: Further aspects & elements

UNEQUAL ACCESSTO GOODS, INFORMATION

AND TECHNOLOGY

LACK OF

GOOD GOVERNANCE

CONFLICTS & DISRUPTIONS OF

VALUE SYSTEMSGender inequality

Neglect ofthe commons

Flood and Quality of information

Apathy

Loss of identity

Violence

Lack ofhealthcare

Water scarcity

Basic needs

Conflicts over resources

Loss of Biodiversity

Migration

Brain DrainMilitary approach

Lack ofDemocracy

Renewable technologies

Neglect ofexternal costs

Intellectual property rights

Disrespect ofcultural differences

Lack of responsibility

Lack of accountability

Lack of transparency

Lack of legitimacy

Terrorism Int. political dominance

Consumption patterns

Consumptive lifestyles

Decrease ofresources &degradation ofenvironment

Lack of and insufficiencies of

Education

Declineof traditional

values

Decreasingrespect of

human rights

Demographictransition

Poverty

Inappropriate division of political &

economic power

Inappropriateprocesses of

decision makingLack of

internationalsolidarity

Weakness of civil society

Shortcomings of market economy

Security vs.Civil Rights

Technological divides

Short termthinking

Lack ofwelfare

© Tulbure 2007

4. Overcoming Technological Divides

• tt30 project defined during the tt30 kick-off conference 2001 in Hamburg, Germany

• Covering several years• Interdisciplinary project• Guided by the fundamental principles of the CoR:

– Global perspective , holistic thinking and long-term perspective • Limited human, time and financial resources

Project team: Pauliina Arola (Finland), Christian Berg (Germany), Baker al-Hiyari (Jordan), Tadas Leoncikas (Lithuania), Michal Miedzinski (Poland), Peter-Olav Pleuß (Germany), Ildiko Tulbure (Romania/Germany), Ali Vali (USA/India), Aleksander Zidansek (Slovenia)

© Tulbure 2007

Why such a project? • The issue “Technological Divides” has been recognised as one

of the most important ones of the World Problematique.

• Technological Divides between societies as well as within each society

• Continuously increasing technological gaps because of fast progress in technology, quickly leaving more and more people behind

• The situation in the field of Divides is not very well known

• Better understanding of secondary effects of technological developments

• World Summit on Sustainable Development 2002 “No limits to Knowledge, but Limits to Poverty”

• World Summit on the Information Society, Geneva, 2003

• Digital Worlds, Paris, 2005

© Tulbure 2007

Goals of the project

• To analyse and evaluate existing Divides

• To understand what effects can Divides have

• To recognise appropriate strategies how to overcome the Divides.

• Structured in two main parts:

– First step: analysis and diagnosis of the existing situation in the field of Technological Divides i.e. access to technologies, ability to use, effective use together with potential impacts

– Second step: elaboration of strategies how to overcome Divides

© Tulbure 2007

Social and environm.impacts

Policy issues

Analysis and diagnosis(including values,

regional differences)

2001 2020How to bridge the gaps?

Education

Regionaldifferences

Infrastructure

Conclusions, Strategies andRecommendations

CoR Policy ... (e.g. NGOs)

Future paths, scenarios

Infrastructure

Education

Flow-chart

© Tulbure 2007

5. Some selected results of the project work – Sustainability in Europe

• A. Digital Divide in Europe

• B. Sustainability in the Information Society

• C. Holistic education for sustainable development

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A. Digital Divide in Europe

• Is Digital Divide a theme for Europe?

• At first view Not a special one compared with the world-wide situation.

• Where do we stand?

• Europe - Africa - America - other selected countries

© Tulbure 2007

% of worlds internet hosts

Africa0.3%

Asia6.1%

Europe13.9%

Americas77.8%

Oceania1.9%

% of worlds internet users

Africa1.1%

Asia27.3%

Europe28.6%

Americas40.1%

Oceania2.9%

© Tulbure 2007

05

1015202530354045

Africa America Asia Europe Oceania

1999 2001 2003

Estimated PCs in the world per 100 inhabitants

© Tulbure 2007

Digital Divide in Europe - internal analysis

• By careful analysis of the situation: Divides between European societies and within societies between generations.

• Even within a country there are big regional differences concerning the Divides, particularly between big cities and rural areas.

• Gaps also between different educational levels.

© Tulbure 2007

Divides in Europe

Fully „on-line“

„On-line“

Moving forward

© Tulbure 2007

B. Sustainability in the Information Society• The emergence and use of ICT have beside primary desired

effects also secondary (negative) ones in all human activity fields and on the environment.

• With the present usage patterns of ICT the sustainability of our society will be put under question.

• Emerging the Information Society is necessary but does not assure per se the sustainability of our society because of rebound-effects in all human activity fields and on environment.– Reduction of energy consumption by using ICT?

– Less environmental impacts by using ICT?

– More welfare by using ICT?

• Emerging the Information Society in unequal way in the world will leave more and more people behind - African situation

© Tulbure 2007

C. Holistic education

• Education - key issue for the world sustainability !

• In his book "Continuity, Innovation and Change", HRH Prince Hassan, former President of the Club of Rome, pointed out the need for education as a key issue for achieving these three human goals: continuity, innovation, and change. These are the fundamentals of sustainable development of our society.

• Three dimensions of education are recognised: infrastructure, methodologies and values. All these three dimensions of education are of crucial importance for the educational process regardless about which region we are talking about. Frameworks (economic, politic, social, cultural) are, in our opinion, the bound elements between these dimensions.

• It is to be clarified how important are these three spheres for educational processes.

© Tulbure 2007

From tt30 for consideration to the CoR

• Life-Cycles in our Dynamic World

• Rebound effects

• Short-term thinking

• Education

• Lack of long-term Responsibility

• Acceleration

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Networking & spreading our results

• Partnerships through project teams with other global organisations for emerging the tt30 innovation potential

• Several articles. For example: “An Agenda for the Young generation” in “Europe in Perspective of Global Change”, ed. Antoni Kuklinski, Warsaw 2003

• Book: Exploring a worthwhile Future for All

• Organising and participating in international conferences for spreading out the tt30 ideas related to sustainable development

University "1 Decembrie 1918" Alba Iulia, Romania,23th - 25th February, 2006

Kick-off conference of the Network for Sustainability Strategies, Monitoring and Management in South

Eastern Europe (NESSEE 06)

© Tulbure 2007

6. Conclusions

• tt30 is acting by its great innovation potential for assuring the sustainable development of our world

• There are different major problems regarding sustainability in different parts of the world.

• Technological Divides: a very complex and interdisciplinary field

• Divides in the world - qualitatively different• Rebound-effects are dangerous for the sustainable

development of our society• Global emerging the Information Society - is this the

sustainable way ?• Education - key issue regarding overcoming Divides and the

driving force for Sustainable Development

© Tulbure 2007

Thank you for your attention !

www.clubofrome.org/tt30

© Tulbure 2007

University "1 Decembrie 1918" Alba Iulia, Romania,23th - 25th February, 2006

Kick-off conference of the Network for Sustainability in South Eastern Europe

(NESSEE)Thursday, Feb. 23th: Official opening of the conference

Friday, Feb. 24th: Sustainable Development1. Sustainable Development and Society, Institutionalisation, Networks 2. Energy/Environmental Aspects and Sustainable Development, Initiatives 3. Economy/Educational Aspects and Sustainable Development, Initiatives

Saturday, Feb. 25th: Future working way Launching the Network for Sustainability in South Eastern Europe

© Tulbure 2007

Technological Divides - Standard definition

• Technological Divides: gaps between societies or specific societal groups in access as well as in ability to use and effective use of (new) technologies in practice.

• Problems here: with which eyes (from which part) do we look at the gaps? What is the cultural understanding for how to use technologies and for which goals?

© Tulbure 2007

Number of PCs per 1000 Inhabitants

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Be

lgiu

m

De

nm

ark

Ge

rma

ny

Fin

lan

d

Fra

nce

Gre

ece

Gre

at B

ritta

in

Italy

Ne

the

rla

nd

s

No

rwa

y

Au

stri

a

Po

lan

d

Po

rtu

ga

l

Ro

ma

nia

Ru

ssia

Sw

ed

en

Sw

itze

rla

nd

Slo

vaki

a

Slo

van

ia

Sp

ain

Tze

ch R

ep

ub

lic

Ukr

ain

e

Hu

ng

ary

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

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05

101520253035404550

Africa America Asia Europe Oceania

1999 2000 2001

Mobile phone subscribers in the world per 100 inhabitants

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Rebound-effects

• A case study using modelling and simulation with scenario development concerning possible rebound-effects due to use of ICT

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4

Percentage of use (1) (on-line-informing)

5% 50% 95% 95%

Percentage of use (2) (e-working) 5% 50% 95% 95%

Average distance to the workplaceof user (2)

100km

100km

100km

100km

Average per person paperconsumption of user (1)

0,166t

0,25t

0,166t

0,25t

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CO2- emissions,in [Mt]

400

300

200

100

0

2000 2005Time

"CO2-Emissionen" : Szenario 4"CO2-Emissionen" : Szenario 3"CO2-Emissionen" : Szenario 2"CO2-Emissionen" : Szenario 1

Total primary energy consumption,in [GWh]

6

4.5

3

1.5

0

2000 2005Time

"Gesamt-Primärenergieverbrauch" : Szenario 4"Gesamt-Primärenergieverbrauch" : Szenario 3"Gesamt-Primärenergieverbrauch" : Szenario 2"Gesamt-Primärenergieverbrauch" : Szenario 1

1

2

1

4

2

43

3

Total mileage,in [Billions km]

1200

750

500

250

0

2000 2005Time

Gesamtfahrleistung : Szenario 4Gesamtfahrleistung : Szenario 3Gesamtfahrleistung : Szenario 2Gesamtfahrleistung : Szenario 1

Net energy consumption without motor vehicles,

in [MWh]

200

175

150

125

100

2000 2005Time

Nutzenergieverbrauch : Szenario 4Nutzenergieverbrauch : Szenario 3Nutzenergieverbrauch : Szenario 2Nutzenergieverbrauch : Szenario 1

1

2

3=4

12

3

4

© Tulbure 2007

Sustainability?

• For American/European countries - rebound-effects !• For African/Arabic countries: early stage of emerging the

Information Society• For American/European countries: how to use technological

applications without compromising sustainable development?• For African/Arabic countries: how to solve basic Technological

Divides: water supply, energy supply, infrastructure, Divides in environmental technologies? It does not make sense to give each child in an African country an e-mail-address without having electrical power supply or even food! Considering the trends in the population growth and GNP/capita it is to be expected that these divides will deepen.

• There are Divides in Europe as well as in other world regions - but there are qualitative differences !