TSLA+TM

TESLA (TSLA)

TOYOTA (TM)

DOMESTIC ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

GDPPERSONAL INCOME

CPICORE CPI

UNEMPLOYMENT RATEPAYROLL EMPLOYMENT

CREDIT CARD PURCHASESENERGY PRICES

FED FUNDS RATECONSUMER CONFIDENCE

KEY INDICATORS +1.0% Q4 (Second Estimate)+0.5%-0.2% +0.3%4.9% Feb. 2016+259,000(p) Week Ending March 5+5.0%+47%UNCHANGED-5.7% (92)

EQUITIES & ESTIMATES

DJIANASDAQS&P 500

MSCI WORLDMSCI EMERGING MRKTS

WTD RESULTS % ∆

1.30.71.21.21.3

S&P 500 TARGET10 YR. T.BILLWTI CRUDE

GDP ESTIMATES %GLOBAL

USEUROZONE

EMERGING MARKETS

20002.0%$45.00-------3.22.01.54.2

ESTIMATES - ML

GLOBAL ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

TEN YEAR T.BILL SPREAD & INTEREST RATES

YIELD CURVESEUROZONE JAPAN

USA

MOVEMENTS IN OILBRENT CRUDE OIL WTI CRUDE OIL

INDUSTRY ANALYSISAUTOMOTIVE

“Automotive Industry have been hit hard in recent months, with double-digit declines across the board. While equities in general have fared poorly, automakers

have been sunk by fears of a sales peak in the U.S. and slowing growth in China”

CHALLENGES Missing estimates for growth in China, -23% in industry since November 2015 v. S&P 500

Low fuel prices, new models attracting attention

Average car is 12 years old making an easy replacement, luxury car market provides hefty margins

China sales (Up 6% but below estimates)

GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES

NEAR FUTURE

METRICS TO WATCH

INDUSTRY FORECASTEmployees: total Nonfarm Payrolls v. Industry Sales

Multiple R .790152

R Square 0.6243409

P-value 0.0065286

y = 11.46x - 806233R² = 0.6243

$500,000.00

$550,000.00

$600,000.00

$650,000.00

$700,000.00

$750,000.00

$800,000.00

$850,000.00

$900,000.00

128000 130000 132000 134000 136000 138000 140000 142000 144000

REGRESSION SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression StatisticsMultiple R 0.790152488R Square 0.624340955Adjusted R Square 0.577383574Standard Error 39355.17361Observations 10

ANOVAdf SS MS F Significance F

Regression 1 20593095128 20593095128 13.29590675 0.006528675Residual 8 12390637518 1548829690Total 9 32983732646

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 90.0% Upper 90.0%Intercept -806233.3488 427618.884 -1.885401648 0.096103593 -1792324.264 179857.5661 -1601411.205 -11055.49214X Variable 1 11.45958773 3.142751292 3.646355269 0.006528675 4.212390259 18.70678521 5.615490737 17.30368473

COMPANY ANALYSISTESLA – TSLA

TSLA

Growth RatesSales 23.5%Cash Flow NMFEarnings NMFDividends NILBook Value 16.5%

Liquidity/Financial Health

Current Ratio 0.99Quick Ratio 0.49Financial Leverage 7.43Debt/Equity 1.87

ProfitabilityAsset Turnover (Average) 0.58Return on Assets % -12.75Return on Equity % -88.84Return on Invested Capital % -21.59Interest Coverage -6.37

FORWARD GUIDANCE SHARE PRICE CONSENSUS RECOMMENDATION

COMPANY ANALYSISTOYOTA - TM

TM

Growth RatesSales 4.5%Cash Flow 11.5%Earnings 22.50%Dividends 18.50%Book Value 4.50%

Liquidity/Financial HealthCurrent Ratio 1.10Quick Ratio 0.79Financial Leverage 2.83Debt/Equity 0.59

ProfitabilityAsset Turnover (Average) 0.60Return on Assets % 4.87Return on Equity % 13.86Return on Invested Capital % 6.17Interest Coverage 85.48

FORWARD GUIDANCE SHARE PRICE CONSENSUS RECOMMENDATION

3 Year Valuation ModelTESLA

Tesla

3 Year Valuation Year Dividend Required Return Div PV

1 $- 1.124510000 $-

2 $- 1.26452274 0

Beta 1.30 3 $- 1.421968466 0.000000000

Rm 10.00% EPS*(1+EGR)^2*P/E - -Recent Dividend $-Risk Free Rate 1.83%

Required return 12.451%

DGR 0.00% Intrinsic Price $- Overvalued

EGR 0.00% Market Price $106.60 2/26/16

EPS (1.90)P/E -

Sensitivity AnalysisTesla-Market Cap 18.9($ Bil)

P/E Beta EGR DGR ROR Valuation Market $237.57 3 Year Valuation($4.92)Low 0.00 0.48 16.50% 0.00% 459.32% 141.00 -96.57 136.08Mean 0.00 0.60 16.50% 0.00% 528.74% 369.69 132.12 364.77High 0.00 1.30 16.50% 0.00% 917.70% 231.40 -6.17 226.48

P/E Beta EGR DGR

Valueline (Trailing/Past 10) -- 1.30 16.50%

Valueline (Median/Past5) -- 1.30 16.50%

Valueline (Forward/Est.) -- 1.30 16.50%

Morningstar (Current/1yr Gr) -- 0.48 15.58%

Morningstar (Forward) -- 0.48 15.58

Google Finance -- 0.56 15%

Mergent Online -- 0.48 15.60%

Yahoo Finance (Past) -- 0.48 15%

Yahoo Finance (Forward) -- 0.48 15%

3 Year Valuation ModelTOYOTA

Toyota

3 Year Valuation Year Dividend Required Return Div PV

1 $4.0000 1.095915000 $3.65

2 $5.6169 1.201029687 4.67673702

Beta 0.95 3 $6.6560 1.31622645 5.056900734

Rm 10.00% EPS*(1+EGR)^2*P/E 165.82 125.98

Recent Dividend $4.00

Risk Free Rate 1.83%

Required return 9.592%

DGR 18.50% Intrinsic Price $139.36 Undervalued

EGR 22.50% Market Price $106.60 2/26/16

EPS 13.00

P/E 8.5

Sensitivity AnalysisToyota-Market Cap 168($Bil)

P/E Beta EGR DGR ROR Valuation Market $135.40

3 Year Valuation$132.05

Low 7.60 0.60 7.00% 10.00% 988.60% 118.50 -16.90 -13.55Mean 9.05 0.68 13.00% 8.00% 1090.63% 135.80 0.40 3.75High 17.56 0.95 22.50% 6.00% 1424.70% 178.31 42.91 46.26

P/E Beta EGR DGR

Valueline (Trailing/Past 10) 8.70 0.90 7.00% 3.00%

Valueline (Median/Past5) NMF 0.90 13.00% 6.00%

Valueline (Forward/Est.) 8.50 0.95 22.50% 18.50%Morningstar (Current/1yr Gr) 8.00 0.60 12 3.40%

Morningstar (Forward) 7.60 0.62 13 1.90%

Google Finance 8.8 0.70 13.2 3.40%

Mergent Online 17.56 0.65 13 3.64

Yahoo Finance (Past) 8.2 0.60 8 3

Yahoo Finance (Forward) 7.89 0.61 8 3.05

DIVERSIFICATION

P-VALUE

MULTIPLE R

R SQUARE

BETA

VL-BETA

1.92742E-36

0.8310753

0.424833576

0.873518688

0.95

2.37675E-15

0.33039456

0.234173

.92

1.30

SOURCES

http://markets.ft.com/research/Markets/Overview

http://www3.valueline.com/

http://www.nasdaq.com/

https://www.google.com/finance

http://library.morningstar.com.proxymu.wrlc.org