Trm for mtec

©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 1

Technology Roadmapping (TRM)Special Course

Dr. Nares DamrongchaiAPEC Center for Technology Foresight

TechnologyForesight

Nares DamrongchaiAPEC Center for Technology Foresight



Roadmapping

Scenarios

STEEP

Trends & Drivers

Products & Services

Technology

Supporting Systems(resources)

Source of picture: http://www.pianetabimbi.it/

Present Future

VISION

5©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai

“Roadmapping coal’s future – zero emissions technologies for fossil fuels”, International

Energy Agency Working Party on Fossil Fuels / Coal Industry Advisory Board / Organisation

for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2005, pg. 20.


“Hitachi disk drive roadmaps”, Grochowski, E., Hitachi San Jose Research

Centre, 2003.


www.modilis.com/roadmap.htm

Communication Roadmap Example: Display technology



• Roadmapping is particularly valuable in novel situations in which experience is lacking. Part of the fundamental value of roadmapping is that it can serve (at least in part) as a substitute for experience.


Purpose of Roadmapping

“The fundamental purpose of the Technology Reviews and the Technology Roadmaps is to assure that we put in motion today what is necessary in order to have the right technology, processes, components, and experience in place to meet the future needs for products and services.”

-- Bob Galvin

Past Chairman of the Board of Motorola

“Father of Roadmapping”



Subcarrier function

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991Year

Tuning Push button Push button - Synthesizers Touch pad - Synthesizers Voice actuated

Selectivity Ceramic resonators SAWs Digital signal processors

Stereo Paging Data Maps

IC technology Linear 5u CMOS 3u CMOS 1u CMOS

Display LEDs Liquid crystal Fluorescence

Vehicular LAN Single wire Glass fibre

Digital modulation 500 kHz bandwidth

PRODUCTS

RECEIVER 1 RECEIVER 2 RECEIVER 3 NEXT GENERATION FUTURE GENERATION

Stereo Plus:

Scan

Seek

Plus:

Personal paging

Plus:

Stock market Road information

Remote amplifiers

Remote controls

A NEW SERVICE

Super Hi Fi

Local maps

Motorola Roadmap Matrix- summary of product plans and technology forecast

Source: Willyard & McClees, 1987

Synchronization of the R&D Timing

R&D item 1 (3y)

R&D item 4 (2y)

R&D item 3 (4y)

R&D item 2 (6y)

Technology 1

Technology 3

Technology 2

Evaluation criteria: order of priority based on importance, emergency, risk, difficulty of R&D etc.

time

Souce: Kohtsuki (2008)


Practical issues in roadmap design

Solve 'ownership' issue

Purpose of use

From 'Theme' to 'Title'

Scope

Time horizon

Role of core team and stakeholders

Project management point of view Budget

(Human) Resource

Risk

Reporting


Technology roadmappingRelationship to the strategic planning process

Market Information

Product-Market analysis

Product-TechnologyOptions Evaluation

Technology Assessment

Identification of TechnologyAvailable / Feasible / Possible

RoadmapCreation

DefinedTargets

ProjectProposals

Source: EIRMA, 1997

Where are theboundaries of

the roadmappingprocess?


Plan

ProcessArchitecture

dialogue

Businessowner

TRM processowner

Roadmapping design: an iterative collaborative process

Domainknowledge

Business need

Focus (Theme),Scope, Aims

Source: T-Plan, University of Cambridge17©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai

Case study 1

Industrial coding equipment

• Background to organisation and the need for roadmapping

• Starting and continuing the roadmapping process

• Lessons learned

Source: Dr Rick Mitchell, Technical Director


Ink jet coding equipment


Laser coding equipment





Business

Units

Corporate

Functions

Sales

Channels

Manufacturing

Operations

Holding Company

Organisation Structure


• Product Identification

• Commercial Printing

• Laser Coding and Marking

• Outer Case Coding

Business Units


• Business Planning System in place (1,3,10 years)

• Lacked clarity on the product need to achieve the strategies

- Commercial groups unclear what they could rely on

- Technical groups unclear what would be required

• All aware that effective innovation needs time…..

• How to manage the dialogue?

The need for a strategic planning process


• Time to Market is key

• Minimum time between Requirement Specification and Product

Launch

• Innovation is inherently risky

• Risk means DELAY

• Or incredible luck….

• So: No Innovation in a Development project

The innovation trap


• Emphasis on the Product suited the company

(“Everyone in organisation talks about Products”)

• Links Commercial and Technical plans in a

simple visual way

• Provides prioritisation (and justification)

for projects

• Clarifies what products can be offered at what times

• Above all: A Communication Tool

Why roadmapping?


Need for better

Product/Technology input

“Seek Advice”

Collaboration with

University of Cambridge

Start-up PI Start-up

processPI Start-

up

Laser Start-up process

Roadmap

Revision 1

Roadmap 1

Draft Roadmap

Market Research

Revision 2

Revision 4

Revision 3Roadmap 2

Outer Case Coding

Roadmap

Roadmapping history (to 2002)

Has continued to evolve

CP wait until ready


1998 1999 1999 2000 2000 2001 2001 2002 2002 2003DEVELOPMENT

RESEARCHResearch 1

Jun-00

Product 2a Product 2b Product 2c

Product 3

Product 5b

Product 4a

Product 5a Product 5d Product 5eProduct 5c

a

Research 1

Research 2

Research 3

Research 5

Product 1

b

Research 6

Product 4b

c

Research 4

Peripheral 1

Research 8

Research 7

Research 9

Lasers roadmap Revision 2


• Because….

• The world and our understanding change

• The act of reviewing :

- Reminds us where we are going

- Brings new colleagues in

- Deepens commitment

- Deepens understanding

- May make us change our view….

Review the roadmap regularly


Case study 2

Korea National Technology

Roadmap• Visions and National Agenda

• Porfolio Analysis of Visions

• The Roadmap

Source: STEPI


Visions for Korea’s National Technology Roadmap

Visions for Science and

Technology in 2012

Building an Information-Knowledge-Intelligence

Society

Aiming at Bio-Healthopia

Advancing the Environment/Energy

Frontier

Upgrading the Value of Major Industries of Korea

Today

Improving National Safety Prestige

Source: National Technology Roadmap (NTRM) Outline, KISTEP (2002)

1

2

3 4

5

Example: Portfolio Analysis of Visions

Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Very Low

Low

Medium

High

Very High

Strategic Importance

Eco

no

mic

al E

ffect

Possibility of Success

:High

:Medium

:Low

New Railway System (Korean Type)(2010, $ 5,000 billion)

New Ocean Transportation System(2000, domestic $ 5,000 billion)

Sustainable natural resource and effective development of natural land

(2011, market-scale $ 4,000 billion, saved $2,000 billion)

Integrated Transporting System(market-size $ 100,000 billion before 2011, increasing by $20,000 per

year, saved $ 80,000 billion per year)

New Automotive System(2011, 75 million cars)

Next Generation Manufacturing System(2010, $ 200 billion)

New Functional Information Materials/Devices(2010, $ 300 billion)

Advanced Precision Machining System(2010, $ 270 billion)

Highly Functional Metals/ Ceramics/Polymers/Textile

(2010, $ 800 billion)

User-friendly Advanced Construction(2011, market-scale $ 40,00 billion, saved $110,000 billion)

Nanomaterials(2010, $ 200 billion)

Example: The Technology RoadmapVision IV Upgrading the Value of Major Industries of Korea TodayDirection of Development: Next Generation Manufacturing and Mechatronics

Strategic Products and Functions:Next Generation Manufacturing System

Strategic Importance

Econom

ical

Eff

ects

Assessment of future

Products and Functions

Key t

ech

no

log

ies

Intelligent manufacturing

and clean manufacturing

system and ultra precision

machining system

technology

Supporting Technologies

Change Factor

•Limitation in the level of AI (Artificial Intelligence) technology

•Level and time in the utilization of the technology for computer, auto-recognition, reasoning and decision

•Environmental restriction, trade restriction and uncertainty in the earth environmental change

Nano technological

Energy IT Limitation in the level of AI Tech.

Self-learning tech.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Self-healing tech.

Self-organizing tech.

Integrated product information system tech.

Optimization modeling/ simulation tech.

knowledge tech.

knowledge tech.

AI tech.Eco-design tech.

Eco-product tech.Remanufacturing.

Integrated CAX solution

Knowledge based facility

AI (Artificial Intelligence) control system

Self-maintaining production system Eco production system

Energy reduction type of facilitiesEcology fused reproduction system

Integrated automatic storage/distribution

Clean based intellectual and virtual process/factory/company

Knowledge acquiring inspection facility

Intellectually autonomous industrial robots/industrial facility

•Diversification of demands – customization mass production age•An aging society, the lack of technological/technical man power -> intellectual production age•The protection of the earth environment, environmental restriction -> clean production age•The development and growth of the key industry through the attainment of high efficiency and high value

Importance

High low

R&D strategy

basic research

applied research

intn’l collaboration

outsourcing

Case study 3

UK Foresight Vehicle Technology

Roadmap• Key Themes

• Architecture and Process of the Roadmap

• The Roadmap

Source: Institute for Manufacturing, University of Cambridge


http://www.foresightvehicle.org.uk/

Social

Economic Environmental

Technological

Political Infrastructural

Social, economic and environmental drivers reflect the three cornerstones of sustainable development

Technology, policy and infrastructureenable or constrain progress towards the social, economic and environmental goals

Road transport system: key themes

Foresight Vehicle technology roadmap: architecture

TimeMarket / Industry

drivers

Performance measures

and targets

TechnicalGroup areas

+5 yearsNow Vision

+10 years +15 years

STEEPI

+20 years

Trends drivers, key issues and uncertainties

Evolution of required and desirable functional performance of road transport systems of the future

Required and desired technological response, including research requirements

STEEPI

Foresight Vehicle TRM: process

Planning(Oct „01)

Marketand

industrytrends

anddrivers

Roadtransportsystem

performancemeasures

and targets

Consultation

Engine and powertrain (E&PT)

Hybrid, electric and alternativelyfuelled vehicles (HEV)

Advanced software, sensors, electronics and telematics (ASSET)

Advanced structuresand materials (FASMAT)

Design and manufacturingProcesses (DMaP)

SynthesisReporting(Sept „02)

Co-ordination, facilitation, data collection, analysis and structuring of information

• 10 month duration• 10 workshops

• More than 130 participants• More than 60 organisations

2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 Vision

Social attitudes towards road transport and the environment?

New working / living patterns

Cheap, safe,

reliable, clean

convenient, comfortable

transportfor all

2030: population in the UK is forecast to increase by 3.3%, to 61 million 1,39,40,67, after which it will decline to 57 million by 2050 73

2016: 4 million (25%) increase in housing (80% single-person), increasing demand for travel 1,67

Continued growth of cities and towns, mainly in South East

Frustration with congestion and public transport continues ?(journey time no longer predictable)

Increasing mobile working

80-85% of journeys by car 39,40,103

Increasing leisure time 39,40

Increasing complexity of lives ?

Increasing concern about crime, security and safety

2000: 3,500 road traffic deaths and 40,000 serious injuries in UK, at an estimated cost of £13.3bn (40,000 deaths and 1.7 million injuries in EU, representing a cost of 2% of GDP) 8,37,39,40

Journey times increasing (70% longer by 2016 in peak travel periods) 67

Growth in personal mobility (70% of drivers use car for leisure day trips every week or month; 50% expect to be making more by 2020) 42

Vehicles sold increasingly as „lifestyle‟ choices ?

Increasing female vehicle purchase / ownership (women are more likely to describe their cars as „stylish‟, „sporty‟ or „fun‟) 42

Shift in social attitudes to speeding

Demand to reduce deaths and injuries on roads

Trend towards career „downsizing‟ for improved lifestyle ?

Younger generation more IT-literate

Increased use of car pools ?

2010: 50% increase in rail passenger miles 30

2010: 10% increase in bus passenger journeys 30

2012: Bicycle journeys double 31

2010: Passenger numbers through UK airports increase by 50% 30

2030: 22- 27% of UK population over retirement age, compared to 19% in 1998; pension costs rise from 4.5-5.5% of GDP 1,25,39,40

2015: 150% increase in international air traffic; 100% increase in domestic, compared to 1995 1

2031: 57% increase in UK road traffic, compared to 1996 80,103

2007: working at home becoming common (currently more than 66% of European organisations with more than 500 employees already practice teleworking) 28,39,40

2021: Households in South-east forecast to grow by 19% on 2001 levels 41

Between 8 and 20% of car-owning households experience vehicle-related crime each year, depending on region 41

1999: UK „leads‟ world in vehicle theft (twice global average at 2.5%); cost of vehicle-related crime £6bn 46,47

2016: 25% increase in number of UK households, 80% of growth due to single person households; 1.3% rural land use predicted to change to urban land use 39,40

Legal issues and frameworks ?

More residential traffic calming schemes and pedestrianisation of town centres

Many different stakeholder groups, with different needs from transport system

Balance between global, national and local solutions ?

UK car-centric culture

Shift from car ownership to car access ?

Individual „time budget‟ for travel remains constant ?

2010: 20-50% increase in European road passenger and haulage traffic 13,80

2010: 25% of UK workforce teleworking at least two days per week 57

2015: 400 million people live in megacities of more than 10 million inhabitants 57

Key:Health, safety & securityMobility & congestion

Lifestyle & attitudes Demographics

2031: 40% increase in bus / coach vehicle miles, compared to 1996 1

2022: 70% increase in journey times in many UK cities 1996 80

Increasing proportion of women in paid employment (9.9 million in 1984 to 12.2 million in 1999) 73

75% of all journeysare under 5 milesand 45% are less than 2 miles 31

Nearly one third of UK households do not have a car (13 million people) 31

More than half of drivers exceed speed limits on motorways, dual carriageways and residential roads 66

People and jobs have moved out of the city and town centres 103

Example detailed roadmap content (1 of 28): Social trends & drivers

#Slide 22

Example summary roadmap content:Social performance measures & targets

So

ciet

y

Vehicle adaptability

Urban people

transport

Effective selling and

customer support

2005: 70% user satisfaction with all transport modes (measure of „convenience‟)

2010: 80% user satisfaction with all transport modes

2005: Road traffic noise reduced by 3dBA from 1998 levels

2010: Road traffic noise reduced by 4dBA

2020: 85% user satisfaction with all transport modes

2020: Road traffic noise reduced by 6dBA;Homologated noise reduction of 4dBA and 8dBA for light and heavy vehicles, respectively

Aim for „equitable‟ mobility (same price for same journey for all groups in society)

2010: Vehicle security (resistance to attack) 5

- Door locks: 5 minutes; Secure storage area in vehicle: 5 minutes- Alarm systems: 5 minutes; Immobilisers: 20 minutes; Window glass: 2 minutes

2002 2007 2012 2017 2022

#Slide 22

Update: Foresight Vehicle TRM - Round 2

• „Ownership‟ of Foresight Vehicle has shifted to Industry (SMMT)

• Roadmap has become a central „reference point‟ for consortium

• Aims for Round 2:- Development of efficient low maintenance repeatable process- Increased (industrial) focus & prioritisation

• 6 half day workshops

• Version 2 of the Roadmap was published in October 2004

Case study 4

NANOTEC Roadmap

• Analysis of resource

• Analysis of global trend and future demand

• Research agenda

Source: APEC Center for Technology Foresight, NANOTEC


NANOTEC Annual Operation Plan

NANOTEC Strategic Plan

Nanotech Technology Roadmap

(Platform Technology)CPMO Cluster Roadmaps

Work Plan and Resource Allocation of

NANOTEC Central Laboratory

Network of COEs

Extramural Funding

National and Global R&D Agenda

Existing and Future Resource

Competitive Strength

Where we want to go?

How will we go there?

What resources are needed?

What are the obstacles?


Nanotech Technology Roadmap

(platform technology)

National and Global S&T Agenda (from various sources)

TARGETs (“Technology” targets and “Application” targets)

Role of Nanotechnology in those targets

Role of Thailand/NANOTEC

Nanotechnology TRM

Existing and Future

Expertise and Resources

Demand-Pull

Supply-Push


Technology capability of NANOTEC staff

PhD staff = 28 Researchers

(each has more than one capability)

684

8

4

9

No. of Equipment

Functional Nanostructure Equipment

Techniques

724

9

Coating Platform (2) – Degree of Relevance


Characterization / Testing

Modeling / Simulation

Core

Technology

Core

Knowledge

Tools

Technology Platforms

Intelligence information, safety and Risk management10851©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai

53

‘First-cut’ roadmap

• In groups of two, generate 2-3 post-it notes for each broad layer

• Consider all layers & timeframes of roadmap… history, current plans, events, external actions,

future possibilities, issues, vision

• Round table, each group place a post-it on chart, and share with group(limit discussion to points of clarification)… 2 rounds

• Generate as many additional post-it notes as possible andplace on roadmap („parallel‟ activity) - fill „white space‟

• Identify and discuss key strategic issues („arrow‟ post-it notes)

©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai

54

Points of ‘First-cut’ roadmap

• Participatory

• Quick

• Exploratory

• Creative

• Active

• Capture, structure and share knowledge- know-why- know-what- know-how- know-when- know-who- know-where

„canvas‟

“story”

plans, forecasts, issues, links, challenges, questions, speculation


55

‘First-cut’ roadmap (‘landscape’)


Process funnel (e.g. strategy, product development)

Requirements fluidConcepts fuzzyMany unknownsMany options

Many assumptionsFew constraintsScenarios

Requirements clear, stableConcepts clear, stableFewer unknowns, risks understoodFewer options, greater constraints

? ?

?

? ?

?

?

?

?

?

?

?

?

?

?

?

?

?

?

?

Time, effort, iteration

Divergent process Convergent process

Stage gates

Subcarrier function

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991Year

Tuning Push button Push button - Synthesizers Touch pad - Synthesizers Voice actuated

Selectivity Ceramic resonators SAWs Digital signal processors

Stereo Paging Data Maps

IC technology Linear 5u CMOS 3u CMOS 1u CMOS

Display LEDs Liquid crystal Fluorescence

Vehicular LAN Single wire Glass fibre

Digital modulation 500 kHz bandwidth

PRODUCTS

RECEIVER 1 RECEIVER 2 RECEIVER 3 NEXT GENERATION FUTURE GENERATION

Stereo Plus:

Scan

Seek

Plus:

Personal

paging

Plus:

Stock market

Road information

Remote

amplifiers

Remote controls

A NEW SERVICE

Super Hi Fi

Local maps

Source: University of Cambridge



TimeNow + 2 y + 5 y + 10 y

Dri

vers

Mar

ket

(Ext

.)

Bu

sin

ess

(In

t.)

Pro

du

ctTe

chn

olo

gy

Res

ou

rces

/ O

ther

Technology Roadmap for Bicycles (example)

58

Business Drivers:TimeNow + 2 y + 5 y + 10 y

Dri

vers

Mar

ket

(Ext

.)B

usi

nes

s(I

nt.

)

Pro

duct

Tech

nolo

gyR

esou

rces

/ O

ther

Legislation: VAT off bikes; cycle paths, etc.

New owner- Investment

New Range 2nd Generation

Trends: leisure, health, disposable income Competition

Demonstrator

Market change and business change・smaller population of consumer population・variety of tastes・digitization, tendency for networking・change in systems e.g. tax・globalization



Biko - Product evolution:TimeNow + 2 y + 5 y + 10 y

Driv

ers M

arke

t(E

xt.)

Bus

ines

s(I

nt.)

Pro

du

ctTe

chno

logy

Res

ourc

es /

Oth

er

“Su

per

-bik

e”

£500-1000

Style

Comfort

Technical

Designer look

Ergonomic design

Direct drive

On-line design



New Range 2nd Generation“Design your own bike”


Demonstrator

Mouldedseat

Customised frame

Expand range

Automatic“Chip-on-bike”

Product specificationsWhat functions are needed?


Biko - Technology needs:TimeNow + 2 y + 5 y + 10 y

Driv

ers M

arke

t(E

xt.)

Bus

ines

s(I

nt.)

Pro

duct

Tech

no

log

yR

esou

rces

/ O

ther

“Sup

er-b

ike”

£500-1000

Style

Comfort

Technical

Designer look

Ergonomic design

Direct drive

On-line design





Demonstrator

Mouldedseat

Customised frame

Expand range

Automatic”“Chip-on-bike”

Internet

design

Electronics

Networkedbusiness

Communications

Ergonomics

mass customisation

Security

Materials / mechanics VisualisationCADCAM

Networkedfactory

What technologies are needed to realize the

product


Resource / other needs:TimeNow + 2 y + 5 y + 10 y

Driv

ers M

arke

t(E

xt.)

Bus

ines

s(I

nt.)

Pro

duct

Tech

nolo

gyR

eso

urc

es /

Oth

er

“Sup

er-b

ike”

£500-1000

Style

Comfort

Technical

Designer look

Ergonomic design

Direct drive

On-line design





Demonstrator

Mouldedseat

Customised frame

Expand range

Automatic”“Chip-on-bike”

Internet

design

Electronics

Networkedbusiness

Communications

Ergonomics

mass customisation

Security

Materials / mechanics VisualisationCADCAM

Networkedfactory

Alliances: gear / drive; styling; electronics

Capital Branding & promotionSkills Sportco

Usage of management resource （existing technologies, HR, funding）

What to expect 'post-roadmapping'

Mutual understanding

Synchronization with company strategy

Better communication

...


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Starting up

the TRM

process

Developing a

robust TRM

process

Roll-out of

the TRM

process

Keeping the

TRM process

'alive' on an

ongoing

basis

Other

Re

sp

on

se

(%

)

Source: CTM survey, 1999

Roadmapping challenges


How NANOTEC Platform TRM will be used

To communicate annual R&D agenda (priority areas of implementation), while being aware of the next agenda.

As guidance for key NANOTEC’s operations: R&D Funding and call for papers, Direction of in-house Central Laboratory, and COEs.

To manage Changes that are vital to survival and growth of NANOTEC. For example,

Direct resources/capability in the key areas, while limit resources in others

Recruit personnel in specific technical areas

Modify internal structure (e.g. phase out some labs and set up new ones)

Tie TRM cycle with NANOTEC's operational cycle and update it constantly, esp. at Board meetings (← keep it alive!)

This is a living technology roadmap

Still a work-in-progress

Need to be further refined 1216

4

Trm for mtec

Documents

nares damrongchai future5

nares damrongchai18

nares damrongchai12

nares damrongchai6

nares damrongchai apec

technology roadmaps

technology foresight2011

right technology