Trillion Sensors Movement in Support of Abundance and Internet of Everything Dr. Janusz Bryzek Chair, TSensors Summit Vice President, MEMS and Sensing Solutions, Fairchild Semiconductor SensorsCon 2014 Santa Clara, CA, March 6, 2014 www.SensorsCon.org March 6 2014 Santa Clara, CA
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Trillion Sensors Movement in Support of
Abundance and Internet of Everything
Dr. Janusz Bryzek
Chair, TSensors Summit
Vice President, MEMS and Sensing Solutions, Fairchild Semiconductor
SensorsCon 2014Santa Clara, CA, March 6, 2014
www.SensorsCon.org
March 6 2014
Santa Clara, CA
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Outline
• Introduction to Abundance and Trillion Sensor Roadmap
• Showcase of amazing sensor based productswww.SensorsCon.org
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Introduction to Abundance*
• Abundance* movement forecasts elimination in one
generation (20 to 30 years) of major global problems:
• Hunger
• Lack of medical care
• Lack of clean water and air
• Lack of energy
• Abundance forecasts the need for (among others) 45
trillion sensors, many not yet developed.
• Historical sensor development cycles from prototypes
– Networks and sensors (45 trillion networked sensors in 20 years).
– Digital manufacturing (3D printing) and infinite computing
– Computational systems
– Artificial intelligence
– Robotics
• DIY (Do-it-Yourself) revolution:– Power of individual innovators capable of “impossibles”.
– E.g., flying into space (Burt Rattan) and sequencing human genome (Craig Venter), building
electric car (Elon Musk), etc.
• Unrivaled in history technophilanthropic force:– Funded by billionaires (Gates, Zuckenberg, Omidyars, etc.).
• The rising billion:– Billion of the very poorest of the poor on earth is being plugged into global economy through a
global transportation network, Internet, microfinance and wireless communication.
• Abundance becomes possible as a result of multiple emerging global economic
tides, such as IoT and Digital Health.
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Exponential Technologies Aftershock*
• Rapid market evolution is expected to replace 40% of current Fortune 500
companies within 10 years…
• By companies we didn’t hear about yet.
* Peter Diamandis, November 2013
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Period Estimate MEMS SEMI MEMS+SEMI
2013-2018
Low 15%/y 3%/y 3.6%/y
High 30%/y 3%/y 5.9%/y
2018-2023
Low 20%/y 6%/y 6.7%/y
High 50%/y 6%/y 12.3%/y
MEMS Migration into Mainstream
Growth Assumptions:
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Trillion Sensors (TSensors) Visions
• Mobile sensor market grew exponentially
over 200%/y between 2007 and 2013.
• Several organizations created visions for a
continued growth to trillion(s).• Explosion to trillion(s) is likely to be driven by new
applications not yet envisioned by leading market
research organization.
• Forecasting thus needs visionaries!
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TSensors Movement Strategy
1. Invite visionaries to “invent” new sensor applications expected to drive ultrahigh volume
demand for sensors.
Ultrahigh volume: >1 billion units/year, a requirement to make a global impact.
First events: 2013 TSensors Summits at UC Berkeley and Stanford University.
2014 events: Summits in Tokyo, Munich, San Diego.
2. Group these applications into the common application platforms (TApps).
3. Develop TSensors Roadmap:
Document characterizing most suitable sensor technology platforms which:
• Could meet the requirement of TApps.
• Could meet the cost targets enabling deployment in >billion units/year.
• Could support multiple TApps, if possible.
4. Develop strategy for selected sensor technology platforms development acceleration, e.g.: Facilitate restructuring of academic programs to focus on TSensors Roadmap.
Facilitate spinoff of startups from leading research organization supported by target customers.
Facilitate JVs (Cooptition) between target customers, infrastructure companies, academia and research
organizations.
Facilitate launching Incentive Competitions (similar to XPrize Foundation’s).
Facilitate Governments funding.
5. Facilitate funding of the acceleration effort.
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TApps from TSensors Summit at Stanford
• TSensors Summit at Stanford resulted in about 300
applications.
• I grouped them into 9 Tapps and cross-referenced
with 20 sensor technology platforms.
• The objective for working groups will be to select
those combinations which will have the largest
global economic impact.
Note: numbering relates to Chapters of TSensors Roadmap
TApps2. Education: sensors and IoE
3. Noninvasive health monitoring
Non-contact
Contact-based
Breath-based
Voice-based
Emotion based
Body fluid based
Digestible pill based
DNA/Genome/RNA/Protein based
Chronic disease monitoring
4. Minimally invasive health monitoring
Body fluid analysis
Chronic disease monitoring
5. Personal imaging
6. Computer senses
Taste
Touch
Smell
Feel
Vision
Biometric authentication
Autonomy brain for drones
Autonomy brain for robots
7a. Environmental sensing
Air pollution
Water pollution
Agricultural pollution
Radiation pollution
Petrochemical pollution
Explosives detection
Smart City sensing
7b. Infrastructure sensors
Bridges, roads, buildings
8. Smart food production
Quality, pollution, freshness
Livestock health
Assets tracking
Precision agriculture and aquaculture
Plant health monitoring
Water management
9. Smart energy generation and control
Home energy management
Smart grid sensors
Harsh environment sensors
10. Digital manufacturing, 3D printing
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Infrastructure from TSensors Summit at Stanford
• TApps will require major advances in infrastructure:
11. Energy harvesting and ultra low power electronics enabling energy harvesters.
• Flex batteries
• Supercapacitors
• Solar
• Strain
• Thermal
• RF
12. Ultralow power wireless communication
• 60 GHz
• Bandwidth sharing
• Mechanical
• unPad
13. Network infrastructure for Internet of Everything
• Swarm
• Fog
• Cloud
• Security/encryption
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Proposed Schedule
February 10, 2014: Kick-off
– February 20-21, 2014: Presentation of TSensors Roadmap plan at TSensors Summit Tokyo
– February 28,2014: Distribution of summary and presentations from TSensors Summit Tokyo
March 31, 2014: Abstracts from all contributors on proposed Chapter content
April 30, 2014: Feedback to contributors from Chapter Chairs and Advisory Board
July 30, 2014: Submission of first pass white papers by contributors
August 31, 2014: Feedback from Chapter Chairs and Advisory Board
– September 15-17: Presentation of preliminary results at TSensors Summit Munich
September 30, 2014: Submission of revised white papers by contributors
– September 30, 2014: Distribution of summary and presentations from TSensors Summit Munich
October 31, 2014: Assembly of the first pass TSensors Roadmap
– November 12-13, 2014: Presentation of top level summary at TSensors Summit in San Diego
– November 30, 2014: Distribution of summary and presentations from TSensors Summit San Diego
December 31, 2014: Global availability of un-edited version of TSensors Roadmap
As delivered by Chapter Chairs
June 30, 2015: Global availability of edited version of TSensors Roadmap
Professionally integrated into one document
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Global Tides Driving Demand for Sensors
• Global (somewhat overlapping) tides driving demand for smart systems include:
• Internet of Things• Connecting devices around us through new
network architecture to enable low latency control.
• Mobile market• Transitioning to unPad like infrastructure.
• Wearable market• Bringing fitness, wellness and health
monitoring to all of us.
• Digital Health• Improving health diagnostics and therapeutics
while reducing cost.
• Context Computing (Intel)• Deriving information about us (such as
feelings) and around us.
• CeNSE, Central Nervous System for the Earth (Hewlett-Packard)
• Building global environment monitoring.
• 5-in-5 (IBM)• Five senses for computers in five years
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IoT: the 4th Phase of Internet
• Internet evolution (Cisco) :
• 1st phase was simply getting people connected
• 2nd phase was creating a networked economy by bringing businesses and
transactions online.
• 3rd phase, evident in telepresence and gaming, was “immersive experience”.
• 4th phase is the Internet of Things.
• IoT Drivers (Cisco):
• Standardization of IPv6, providing vastly more IP addresses
• The mainstreaming of cloud and “fog” computing
• Pervasive collaboration of people and professionals via technology
• The explosion of apps for everything
• The trend of app developers to push intelligence from the app layer to the network
layer, or the cloud
• Growing big data and analytics
• Ever-increasing network capacity at higher speeds and ever-cheaper rates
• The consumerization of enriched experiences with things
• Nanotechnology
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Internet of Everything (IoE)
• Boldest forecast for IoE was made by John Chambers, CEO of Cisco, at 2014
CES Show in Las Vegas:
• $19 trillion by 2020.
• This represents over 20% of the global 2020 GDP !!!
• Flavio Bononi, while VP and Fellow of Cisco, delivered a forecast for networked
sensors:
• $1 trillion by 2020
• <$1/networked sensor?
• Recent $3.2B acquisition of Nest by Google validates market growth.
• First $multibillion hardware startup acquisition in a long time; New Era for startups?
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mHealth (eHealth, Digital Health)
• US Healthcare spending was $1.3T, about 20% of GDP.
• mHealth is expected to save 35% of cost of treatment of chronic medical
conditions, which represents vast majority of health care spending.
• Selected low hanging fruits for mHealth in the US:
• $300B/y: patients don’t follow their prescriptions.
• $44B/y: patients don’t give doctors enough information.
• $300B/y: unhealthy diet and lack of exercise.
• mHealth is expected to bring healthcare to everybody on Earth…
Inc Magazine, February 2014
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Jobs, Jobs, Jobs…
• Assuming an average revenue per employee in developed countries at:
– $200,000/year for component companies
– $500,000/year (equal to 2011 NASDAQ 100 average) for smart system companies.
• Based on Cisco forecast ($19T system/services and $1T sensors):
• Trillion smart system would thus represent in 2023:
– 5 million new direct jobs in component industries.
– 38 million new direct jobs in system industries.
• Assuming indirect jobs multiplier of 3, this would result in 129 million additional
jobs, for a total of 172 million jobs by 2020.
– Indirect job multiplier for knowledge workers has been between 2 and 4 (depending
on region).
– As a reference, the US created only 1.3M new jobs between 2002 and 2012, primarily
in Government and medical sectors.
– Total US employment in December 2013 was 144M.
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Jobs Where?
• Sensor based systems require a high-tech work force.
• Majority of created jobs will likely be for knowledge workers.
• An example of a sensor based system could be Apple’s iPhone 4s, which had
the following breakdown of 2011 selling price:
– 3% ($14) cost of assembly (China)
– 32% ($178) cost of components (global)
– 66% ($368) Apple’s share (US)
100% ($560) selling price
• Most of sensor and IoE jobs will likely be in industrialized countries.
Fortune Magazine 2011
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Challenges for TSensors
• User adoption.
• Cycle time for commercialization.
• Bleeding edge technologies.
• Standardization.
• Development of algorithms
enabling derivation of useful
information.
• Bandwidth sharing wireless
communication.
• Battery/scavenger sources
enabling power for life.
• Network architecture enabling low
latency control.
• Scaling network size enabling
processing of sensor generated
data at the level of Brontobytes.
• Available funding.
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Software for TSensors
• Sensors fusion
– E.g., Kalman filter merging data from acceleration, rate, magnetic and pressure
sensors. to improve accuracy and lower processing power.
• Data fusion
– E.g., merging data from inertial sensors, GPS and weather service.
• Sensing services
– E.g., providing oil location and its quantity based of underground explosions
monitored by millions sensors.
• Big data
– Boeing engines generates 40 TB of data/hour. With ~29,000 commercial US flights
per day, engines generate over 2 Zettabytes of data per year.
• Small data
– Processed big data, e.g., you just exceeded your calorie intake for the day; stop
eating.
Multiple startups popped to address sensor generated data.
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Incentives for TSensors Adoption (1)
• Cost reduction of medical care, currently growing out of control.– Insurance companies are already funding development of new technologies potentially reducing
health care cost.
• E.g., IBM’s Dr. Watson, http://www.sbwire.com/press-releases/2019-telemedicine-and-m-health-
NTT Docomo and Toray announced Hitoe (Japanese for "one layer“) cloth with coated nanofibers and a square patch that does the sensing, measuring heartbeat and even offering metrics resembling a cardiogram.