DISCUSSION PAPER Trends in Private Investment in Developing Countries 1995 Statistics for 1980-93 Jack D. Glen Mariusz A. Sumlinski INTERNATIONAL FINANCE CORPORATION Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized
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Trends in Private Investment in Developing Countries 1995
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DISCUSSION PAPER
Trends in PrivateInvestment in Developing
Countries 1995
Statistics for 1980-93
Jack D. GlenMariusz A. Sumlinski
INTERNATIONALFINANCE
CORPORATION
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IFC Discussion Papers
No. I Private Business in Developing Countries: Improved Prospects. Guy P. Pfeffermann
No. 2 Debt-Equity Swaps and Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America. Joel Bergsmanand Wayne Edisis
No. 3 Prospects for the Business Sector in Developing Countries. Economics Department, IFC
No. 4 Strengthening Health Services in Developing Countries through the Private Sector.Charles C. Griffin
No. 5 The Development Contribution of IFC Operations. Economics Department, IFC
No. 6 Trends in Private Investment in Thirty Developing Countries. Guy P. Pfeffermannand Andrea Madarassy
No. 7 Automotive Industry Trends and Prospects for Investment in Developing Countries.Yannis Karmokolias
No. 8 Exporting to Industrial Countries: Prospectsfor Businesses in Developing Countries.Economics Department, [FC
No. 9 AfricanEntrepreneurs-Pioneers ofDevelopment. Keith Marsden
No. 10 Privatizing Telecommunications Systems: Business Opportunities in Developing Countries.William W. Ambrose, Paul R Hennemeyer, andJean-Paul Chapon
No. 11 Trends in Private Investment in Developing Countries, 1990-91 edition. Guy P. Pfeffermannand Andrea Madarassy
No. 12 Financing Corporate Growth in the Deueloping World. Economics Department, IFC
No. 13 Venture Capital: Lessonsfrom the Developed Worldfor the Developing Markets. Silvia B. Sagari withGabriela Guidotti
No. 14 Trends in Private Investment in Deueloping Countries, 1992 edition. Guy P. Pfeffermannand Andrea Madarassy
No. 15 Private SectorElectricity in Developing Countries: Supply and Demand.Jack D. Glen
No. 16 Trends in Private Investment in Developing Countries 1993: Statistics for 1970-91.Guy P. Pfeffermann and Andrea Madarassy
No. 17 How Firms in Developing Countries Manage Risk. Jack D. Glen
No. 18 Coping with Capitalism: The New Polish Entrepreneurs. Bohdan Wyznikiewicz, Brian Pinto,and Maciej Grabowski
No. 19 Intellectual Property Protection, Foreign Direct Investment, and Technology Transfer.Edwin Mansfield
No. 20 Trends in Private Investment in Developing Countries 1994: Statistics for 1970-92. Robert Millerand Mariusz Sumlinski
No. 21 Radical Reform in the Automotive Industry: Policies in Emerging Markets. Peter O'Brienand Yannis Karmokolias
No. 22 Debt orEquity? HowFirmns in Developing Countries Choose.Jack Glen and Brian Pinto
No. 23 FinancingPrivate Infrastructure Projects: Emerging Trends from IFC'sExperience. Gary Bondand Laurence Carter
No. 24 An Introduction to the Microstructure ofnEmerging Markets. Jack Glen
International Finance Corporation1818 H Street, N.W.Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A.
All rights reservedManufactured in the United States of AmericaFirst printing February 1995
The International Finance Corporation (IFC), an affiliate of the World Bank, promotes the economicdevelopment of its member countries through investment in the private sector. It is the world's largestmultilateral organization providing financial assistance directly in the form of loan and equity to privateenterprises in developing countries.
To present the results of research with the least possible delay, the typescript of this paper has not beenprepared in accordance with the procedures appropriate to formal printed texts, and the IFC and the WorldBank accept no responsibility for errors. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in thispaper are entirely those of the authors and should not be attributed in any manner to the IFC or the WorldBank or to members of their Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. The World Bankdoes not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibilitywhatsoever for any consequence of their use. Some sources cited in this paper may be informal documentsthat are not readily available.
The material in this publication is copyrighted. Requests for permission to reproduce portions of it should besent to Director, Economics Department, IFC, at the address shown in the copyright notice above. The IFCencourages dissemination of its work and will normally give permission promptly and, when the reproductionis for noncommercial purposes, without asking a fee. Permission to copy portions for classroom use is grantedthrough the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., Suite 910, 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, Massachusetts 01923,U.S.A.
The complete backlist of publications from the World Bank, including those of the IFC, is shown in theannual Index of Publications, which contains an alphabetical title list (with full ordering information) andindexes of subjects, authors, and countries and regions. The latest edition is available free of charge from theDistribution Unit, Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433,U.S.A., or from Publications, The World Bank, 66, avenue d'lna, 75116 Paris, France.
ISSN (IFC Discussion Papers): 1012-8069ISSN (Trends in Private Investment in Developing Countnes): 1018-208XISBN 0-8213-3183-3
Jack D. Glen is a senior economist and Mariusz A. Sumlinski is a research analyst in the EconomicsDepartment of the IFC.
The first edition in this serial publication was cataloged by the Library of Congress as follows:
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Pfeffermann, Guy Pierre.Trends in private investment in thirty developing countries / Guy
Pfeffermann, Andrea Madarassy.p. cm.-(Discussion paper / International Finance
Corporation; no. 6)Includes bibliographical references.ISBN 0-8213-1352-51. Investments-Developing countries. 1. Madarassy, Andrea,1964- . II. Title. III. Series: Discussion paper (InternationalFinance Corporation); no. 6.HG5993.P48 1989332.6'7314'091724-dc2O 89-22588
CIP
Foreword
The sixth edition of 7rends in Private Investment in Developing Countries provides private andpublic investment data through 1993. This year's edition focuses on foreign sources of financing,i.e. foreign direct investment, international debt issues, new equity capital, international banklending and portfolio equity flows.
Guy P. PfeffermannDirector, Economics Department andEconomic Adviser of the Corporation
2. Foreign Sources of Capital for Private Investment ....................... 3
Foreign Direct Investment ...................................... 3Other Foreign Sources of Capital .......... ...................... 4Overview ........................................... 5
Notes.6
Appendix 1: Methods and Sources .......... ........................ 7
Sub-Saharan Africa ......................................... 25Latin America and the Caribbean ............................... 29Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa ......................... 33East Asia ............................................. 35South Asia ............................................. 37
v
I
Salient Points
Private investment in developing average developing country. Averagescountries continued its upward trend in weighted by GDP, on the other hand, place1993, reflecting stronger economic growth greater emphasis on the economically largerrates globally and confidence in the renewed countries. Evidently, private investment isemphasis placed on the private sector by stronger in the larger economies than in themany developing country governments. smaller ones; public investment, in contrast,Public investment, in contrast, continued its is marginally lower.decade-long decline reaching levels remini-scent of the early 1970s. Weighted by the * East Asia continued to maintain therespective GDP of each country, the declinein public investment has been offset almost Fig. 2. Public investment share in GDPexactly by the increase in private invest-ment. Evidently, the transfer of much %public investment to the private sector, for [5[I.simpleaveege t Weightedaverge
example through privatization of state-ownedenterprises and infrastructure, has not yet ,0been translated into overall higher levels ofinvestment globally. 5
Figures 1 and 2 provide informnation 1r 1982
on long-term trends in private and public 1970197 1974 19761978 198019821984 1986 19881990I9
investment as a percentage of GDP.' In
Fig.1. Private investment share in GDP highest levels of private investment (18.8%),although this rate declined (on average) for
% the second year in a row. Notable among-5 Simple aver.ge o Weighed averagel countries in the region are Thailand (3 1 .0%)
-- .2 e ° ,_ - , and the Republic of Korea (26.1%), both of10 r *- "'_'t' which experienced marginally lower private
investment rates compared with 1992.2
* Latin America produced the second highest0 7 1 1 1 l rates of private investment (13.9%), rat.1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 19901 that increased for the second consecutive
year. Chile (21.8%) and Panama (20.6%)were the leaders in the region; both
both graphs, simple averages provide a experienced significant increases in theirnotion of what has been happening in the rates of investment in 1993.
1
* Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa * Public investment remained highest in thecontinued to increase private investment countries of Europe, the Middle East, andrates, attaining a level in 1993 unsurpassed North Africa. Even in that region, however,in the period for which data are available. public investment rates have declinedThe increase reflects substantial recoveries relative to the rates achieved in the 1980s.in Turkey and Egypt, and further increases Morocco and Tunisia achieved the highestin Iran over previous years. rates of public investment in the region.
Public investment rates have increased in*Sub-Saharan Africa continues as the region four of the last five years in East Asia,with the lowest rate of private investment, a including 1993. Notable in the region forrate that has declined in each of the last their high rates of public investment werethree years. The leader in the region Korea, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Africacontinues to be Mauritius (20.4%), which maintained its rate of public investmentincreased its investment rate in 1993. In nearly constant over the last decade.contrast, most countries in the region, Nigeria remains the leader in the region,including the two largest economies, Nigeria largely owing to its state-owned petroleumand South Africa, experienced declines in industry. South Asian public investmenttheir already low rates of private investment. rates continued their decline for the seventh
year in a row. Pakistan is notable for its* The ratio of private to public investment, rate of investment above the regionalwhich measures the relative importance of average. Latin America remained the regionthe two types of investment, increased with overall the lowest rate of publicglobally from an average of 1.7 in the 1980s investment, a position maintained throughoutto 2.2 in the first four years of the current the sample period. The rate of publicdecade, a fact which illustrates the investment in that region has been roughlyincreasing importance globally of the private constant since 1984. Venezuela, with itssector. That shift is particularly notable in large state-owned petroleum industry,several countries, including Argentina, remains well above the regional average,where the ratio more than doubled from 2.8 accompanied by Colombia, which isto 6.2; Thailand, which experienced a near developing newly-found oil reserves, and the50 percent increase in the ratio from 3.1 to Dominican Republic.4.5; and Sri Lanka, where the ratio climbedfrom the low level of 0.9 to 2.0.
2
2Foreign Sources of Capital for Private Investment
Even though the bulk of privateinvestment continues to be financed bydomestic savings, access to foreign sources Figure 3. International Sources of Capital.of capital is playing an increasinglyimportant role for the private sector in 120 U.S. S (Wona)
developing countries. The emphasis in this MFDI
year's edition is on foreign sources of 10 kPofolo Flw.
finance. After the isolation experienced SO .UD.during the years following the debt crisis, sothe private sector in many developing 40
countries now has access not only to 20
renewed international bank lending and 0international debt markets, but also to Note: Data pr"nted indud. ony thse ountess covered In telA 1 -3
international equity markets as sources ofnew investment capital. This section looksat foreign direct investment (FDI) and at therole that international investors played in As in all recent years, East Asiafinancing private investment in developing followed as the second largest recipient ofcountries through their participation in FDI, representing 30 percent of the total,domestic and foreign debt and equity but down by nearly 10 percent from themarkets. The discussion centers around the previous year. Within East Asia, Malaysiadata on these sources presented in Table 3. remains the largest recipient, followed by
Indonesia.'Foreign Direct Investment
In the Sub-Saharan African countriesFDI in the developing countries for which data are available, FDI grew more
included in Figure 3 declined marginally in rapidly in 1993 than did that of any other1993 from its 1992 level following region, giving the region nearly 3 percent ofsubstantial increases in each of the previous the global total. That increase, however,two years. Still, new FDI into developing still leaves the region below the levels itcountries reached a level five times that of received in both 1990 and 1989.1987, itself up from the levels of the mid1980s. South Asian FDI grew in 1993 by
more than 40 percent, mostly because of aOnce again, Latin America was by rapid expansion of investment in India, the
far the largest recipient of FDI in 1993, and largest country in the region. Preliminaryaccounted for about half of all FDI received figures for India indicate that FDI increasedin each of the last three years. Unlike most by 75 percent over 1992. European FDIother regions, FDI into Latin America also picked up (22%), while Middle Easternincreased marginally in 1993. Within the FDI fell be 28%.region, Argentina received the most FDI,followed by Mexico.
3
Other Foreign Sources of Capital recovery from the debt crisis as early as1985, but it was in 1991 following the
This section concentrates on four Mexican debt restructuring agreement thatsources of foreign capital: international debt issues began their rapid takeoff.markets for debt and equity, international Starting with $2.8 billion globally in 1991,bank lending and international portfolio new issues totalled $17.2 billion in 1993, orequity flows, each of which is defined in 4 percent of total private investment in themore detail below. Three of those sources countries covered here. Those funds wereprovide new capital directly. The fourth, concentrated to a large extent in Latininternational portfolio equity flows, provides America, which issued debt valued at $12.9capital directly to the domestic market, but billion, or three quarters of the total. Withinin some cases that capital flows into new that region, Mexico was the dominant issuer,investment only indirectly; nevertheless, it accounting for nearly 28 percent of thehas played an important role in the global total. Close behind were Brazil anddevelopment of local equity markets for Argentina, each of which was responsiblemany countries and so is included in the for more than 20 percent of the global total.discussion that follows. All four sources are East Asian issuers also played an active roledistinctly different from foreign direct in the market, accounting for more than oneinvestment which, by definition, carries with fifth of the total, led by Korea and Thailand.it a significant degree of control over theenterprise in which the investment is being New equity capital raised inmade. The four types of portfolio international markets involves the placementinvestment discussed here afford no such of equity offshore with internationalcontrol to the investor. investors. As with debt, these activities also
played an increasingly important role inStarting from a relatively low base of recent years. With essentially no
$12 billion in 1990, total flows increased to international issues of equity from thesemore than $87 billion in 1993.' Of that countries as reently as 1985, the volume ofamount, portfolio equity flows into new equity raised abroad has grown rapidlydeveloping country domestic stock markets from $1.2 billion in 1990, to $7.1 billion inaccounted for roughly half of the total, a 1993. Equity issues also were dominated bysignificant increase over previous years. Latin American issurers in each of the lastInternational issues of debt and bank loans three years. In total, Latin American firmswere of nearly equal magnitudes in 1993 accounted for two thirds of all internationalfollowing dramatic growth in the market for equity issues, with Mexico alone accountingdeveloping country debt that has taken place for $3.7 billion in 1993, and nearly as muchin the last two years. International equity in each of the previous two years. Inissues have grown nearly six fold since comparison, East Asia accounted for 231990, but still are less than half the size of percent of the new equity issuedinternational debt. internationally in 1993, with South Asia and
Middle East/North Africa responsible forInternational debt issues involve the less than 5 percent each. Sub-Saharan
placement of bonds and other debt African issuers have been active in theinstruments with international investors, markets since 1991, but were responsible forlargely through the Euromarkets. These only $126 million in international equityinstruments have shown a remarkable issues in 1993, all of which was directed toincrease in recent years following a decade South Africa.of stagnation. The market started its
4
Net international bank lending has Overviewstrengthened remarkably in the last fouryears. Starting at a level of $9.3 billion in Foreign sources of capital have1990, lending dipped slightly in 1991, but increased not only in absolute value, but alsorebounded sharply and reached $19.7 billion relative to the total value of privatein 1993. Once again, Latin American investment. International debt and equityborrowers lead the pack, absorbing just over issues represented nearly 6 percent of allfifty percent of the total in each of the last private investment in 1993 for the countriestwo years. Although Mexico was a major covered, up from less than one percent inborrower in 1992, it reduced its borrowing 1990. While one should not compare thesubstantially in 1993 and Brazil was by far other foreign sources of capital to totalthe major international borrower in that private investment owing to the governmentyear, accounting for 29 percent of the global and state-owned enterprise participation intotal. Argentina and Chile were also major those flows, indications are that theirborrowers. As with the other financial importance increased in a similar fashion.markets, the East Asian countries were alsosignificant players, absorbing more than one International sources of capital havefourth of total international bank lending, led become an important part of privateby Indonesia and Korea. In the Middle investment in developing countries in recentEast, Turkey was the only major borrower, years. The growth in portfolio equitybut it was responsible for $2.5 billion in investment is particularly noteworthy1993. In South Asian, only India played an because it indicates the willingness ofimportant role in the market, and there were international investors to assume the risksno major Sub-Saharan borrowers. and rewards associated with developing
country investment. Undoubtedly, theInternational portfolio equity flows upward trend witnessed in recent years will
represent equity investments by international not continue uninterrupted, as events ininvestors in equity traded in the issuing Mexico have illustrated. In fact, prelim-firm's domestic equity markets. To the inary estimates for 1994 suggest thatextent that capital flows to existing portfolio equity flows to developing coun-shareholders through purchases of existing tries declined by 16 percent from their 1993shares rather than to firms, its impact on the levels; the shapest drop was in Latinamount of capital available to firms for America which may fallen by 59 percent.investment is only indirect. Regardless, it Still, 1994 international issues of debt andhas played an increasingly important role in equity increased globally by 40 and 70many developing countries in recent years. percent, respectively, over the 1993 figures
and international bank lending also is esti-Starting from very low levels in mated to have increased by nearly a third in
1990, portfolio investment now represents 1994.nearly 40 percent of the five sources ofcapital presented in Figure 3. Importantly,the increased domestic equity market activityassociated with this portfolio investment hasplayed a key role in inducing developingcountry firms to raise public capital, bothdomestically and abroad.
5
Notes
Chapter 1
1. This edition contains investment data for the years 1980-93. For data on the period 1970-79, readers are referred to the previous edition by Robert Miller and Mariusz Sumlinski, Trendsin Private Investment in Developing Countries 1994: Statistics for 1970-92. IFC DiscussionPaper 20, International Finance Corporation.
2. South Asian figures are dominated by India, where 1993 data are not yet available.Regional trends, therefore, are not discussed here.
Chapter 2
3. China received more FDI than any other developing country, but is not included in theuniverse of countries in this edition owing to the difficulties involved with differentiating betweenprivate and public investment there. Singapore and Hong Kong also received substantial amountsof FDI, but are not classified as developing countries.
4a. The totals for each year reflect the four international flow sources defined in the textwhich were directed to the countries covered in this edition of Trends in Private Investment inDeveloping Countries. International debt and equity issues include only flows directed to theprivate sector; the other sources include flows to the private sector, but can also contain flowsdirected to either governments or state-owned enterprises.
6
Appendix IMethods and Sources
National accounts normally do not which the relevant data are available. Sincebreak down gross domestic investment into the previous edition, the following changesits private and public sector components. have been made. Cameroon and TanzaniaPrivate investment is defined in this paper as have been dropped for lack of reliable data.the difference between total gross domestic Namibia and Panama have been added. Mi-investment (from national accounts) and nor changes were made in the last two orconsolidated public investment. Consolida- three years for most countries as a result ofted public investment data for each country revisions in their national accounts data.were found mainly in World Bank Country Updates are not available through 1993 forEconomic Memoranda, Public Investment Ecuador and India.Review, Public Expenditure Reviews, andother World Bank country reports. They These tables present the investmentreflect efforts by World Bank missions to figures in terms of five ratios for eachcompile public sector data. Where World country. Three ratios are shown as percent-Bank data are not available, country data ages of GDP -- gross domestic investmentwere used. (GDI/GDP); private investment (Private
I/GDP); and public investment (PublicAmong the data problems inherent in I/GDP). Appendix 2, Table 1 provides the
this method, the following can be readily ratios and Table 2 the corresponding GDPidentified: figures. Two ratios are expressed as
percentages of gross domestic investment --* The emphasis is on fixed capital for- private investment (Private I/GDI); andmation; wherever possible financial invest- public investment (Public I/GDI). For thesement has been excluded. It is not always ratios, see Appendix 2, Table 3. The ratiosclear from the data, however, whether or are computed using local currency units atnot financial investment is included under current prices, except for Bolivia. For thisconsolidated public investment in a partic- country, constant price ratios are used inular country. order to correct for the effect of past high
inflation.* Changes in inventories are a part ofthe residual private investment in some Weighted averages are calculatedcountries but not in others. Where changes using country GDPs (in U.S. dollars) for in-in inventories are excluded, the total invest- cluded countries in each year as weights.ment figure used is gross domestic fixed These are presented as regional aggregatesinvestment. in Tables 4 and 5 in Appendix 2 for
respectively private and public sectorThe countries included in this edition together with simple averages.
Note: Unless otherwise noted the sources are: National Authorities & World Bank/IMF staff estimates. Data for 1993 are preliminary/estimates.*) Chile 1985-1993 GDFI, Madagascar 1984-89 GDI, 1990-93 GDFI.
1) Source: FIBGE e Centro de Estudos de Economia e Govemo/IBRE/FGV.
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