IFD377 May 1999 1(1 DISCUSSION PAPER Trends in Private Investimentin Developing ountries Statistics for 1970-97 (This issue includes the resultsof a worldwide survey of obstacles to dioing business as perceived by executives in 74 countries) Guy P.Pfeffermann Gregory V. Kisunko Mariusz A.Sumlinski INTERNATIONAL FINANCE CORPORATION Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized
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IFD377May 1999 1(1
DISCUSSION PAPER
Trends in PrivateInvestiment in Developing
ountriesStatistics for 1970-97
(This issue includes the results of a worldwide survey of obstaclesto dioing business as perceived by executives in 74 countries)
Guy P. PfeffermannGregory V. Kisunko
Mariusz A. Sumlinski
INTERNATIONALFINANCE
CORPORATION
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IFC Discussion Papers
No. 1 Private Business in Deceloping Countries: ImprovedProspects. Guy P. Pfeffermann
No. 2 Debt-Eqzaiy Sraps and Foreign Direct lnvestment in ,LauinAmenca Joel Bergsmanand Wayne Edisis
International Finance Corporation1818 H Street, N.W.Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A.
All rights reservedManufactured in the United States of AmericaFirst printing May 1999
The Intemational Finance Corporation (IFC), an affiliate to the World Bank, promotes the economicdevelopment of its member countries through investment in the private sector. It is the world's largest multilateralorganization providing financial assistance directly in the form of loan and equity to private enterprises indeveloping countries.
To present the results of research with the least possible delay, the typescript of this paper has not been preparedin accordance with the procedures appropriate to formal printed texts, and the IFC and the World Bank accept noresponsibility for errors. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those ofthe author(s) and should not be attributed in any manner to the IFC or the World Bank or to members of theirBoard of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy ofthe data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. Some sourcescited in this paper may be informal documents that are not readily available.
The material in this publication is copyrighted. The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and willnormally grant permission promptly.
Permission to photocopy items for internal or personal use, for the internal or personal use of specific clients, orfor educational classroom use is granted by the World Bank, provided that the appropriate fee is paid directly toCopyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, U.S.A., telephone 978-750-8400, fax978-750-4470. Please contact the Copyright Clearance Center before photocopying items.
For permission to reprint individual articles or chapters, please fax your request with complete information tothe Republication Department, Copyright Clearance Center, fax 978-750-4470.
All other queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the World Bank at the address above or faxed to202-522-2422.
ISSN (IFC Discussion Papers): 1012-8069ISSN (Trends in Private Investment in Developing Countries): 1018-208XISBN 0-8213-4475-7
Guy P. Pfeffermann is director, Economnics Department, IFC, and economic adviser to the Corporation. Gregory V.Kisunko is country officer in the World Bank's Europe and Central Asia Regional Office. Mariusz A. Sumlinski is aresearch analyst in the Economics Department, IFC.
The first edition of this serial publication was cataloged by the Library of Congress as follows:
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Pfeffermann, Guy Pierre.Trends in private investment in thirty developing countries / Guy
Pfeffermann, Andrea Madarassy.p. cm. - (Discussion paper / International Finance
Corporation; no. 6)Includes bibliographical references.ISBN 0-8213-1352-51. Investments-Developing countries. II. Madarassy, Andrea,1964- . II. Title. III. Series: Discussion paper (InternationalFinance Corporation) ; no. 6.HG5993.P48 1989332.6'7314'091724-dc2O 89-22588
CIP
Contents
Foreword ..... v
Abstract ... ; vii
Chapter I - Private and Public Investment Trends ......................................................... 1
Chapter II - Perceived Obstacles to Doing Business: Worldwide Survey Results .............5
The survey ..................................................... 5
Number of obstacles .................................................... 6
The nature of obstacles .................................................... 12
Sub-Saharan Africa ........................................................ 29
Latin America and the Caribbean ........................................................ 33
Middle East and North Africa ........................................................ 37
Transition Countries ........................................................ 39
East Asia ........................................................ 41
South Asia ........................................................ 45
Table - Investment as a share of GDP ........................................................ 47
iii
Foreword
This is the tenth annual edition of "Trends in Private Investment in DevelopingCountries". In order to mark the anniversary, the discussion paper includes figures foreach of the countries for which data are available as well as the first country-specificresults of a worldwide survey of obstacles to doing business perceived by executives in74 countries (including several industrial countries for comparison). The rationale for thispublication is that standard UN national accounts do not break investment down betweenpublic and private; rather, they distinguish between central government and all otherinvestment, and the latter includes investments by state-owned enterprises. The IFCdiscussion papers pull together information provided by national organizations, WorldBank, and IMF economists in order to estimate levels of private investment.
Guy PfeffermannDirector, Economics Department
& Economic Adviser of the Corporation
v
Abstract
The first part of the discussion paper documents trends in private and public fixedinvestment. On average for the 47 countries covered (including, for the first time in thisseries, China), 1997 was a record year for private investment, which rose from a low of11.2 percent of GDP in 1985 to 14.3 percent in 1997, the last year for which data exist.Public investment declined to 7.2 percent of GDP, its lowest level since 1975. The largest1997 increases in private investment were in two transition countries where levels remainlow (Bulgaria and Romania) followed by Panama, CMte d'Ivoire, Bolivia, Argentina andChina. Ratios of private investment to GDP were highest in Papua New Guinea,Malaysia, the Republic of Korea, Thailand, and Indonesia, before the full effects of theAsian crisis were felt.
The second part presents country-specific results of a 1996/97 worldwide surveyof business executives. The discussion focuses on obstacles to doing business in each ofthe 74 countries covered (including industrial economies) and their relationship to levelsof private investment. A few factors emerge as being of particular importance to privateinvestment decisions: the real exchange rate, the rule of law, predictability of judiciarysystems, and the extent to which financing is available to enterprises.
vii
Chapter IPrivate and Public Investment Trends
In 1997, the latest year for which the data exist, private investment continued torise and public investment to decline on average in line with recent trends in the 47countries covered this year (see Figure 1). The data do not reflect the worsened economicconditions of many developing countries in the wake of the Asian crisis. "Investment"refers to gross domestic fixed capital and encompasses national as well as foreign directinvestment.
Fig. 1. Trends in Private and Public Investment(prcent of GDP)
Overall trends of the past few years mirror those in the four major regions shownin Figures 2 to 5. In all cases except most recently in East Asia trends in private andpublic investment clearly diverge. The drop in public investment is particularlypronounced in Africa.
1
Fig. 2. Latin America: Private and Public Investment(percent of GDP)
-0-Private investment -Public Investment
1614
12
1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997
Fig. 3. Sub-Saharan Africa: Private and Public Investrnent(percent of GOP)
Individual country trends as well as the statistics are shown in Appendix 2.
3
The following table shows 1997 private investment ratios in descending order.
T-b- et. 1iJ$va%e Investment in 199 Unt of; GDP
Papua New Guinea 31.5 Belize 12.8Maaysia 30.9 South Africa 12.7Korea Rep. of* 27.1 Tunisia 12.4Thailalnd000 0 j30 :00 ::24j1 El Salvador 12.1Indonesia 22.1 Egypt 12.1tPanama 0 di :0:t0E ::t22.0 Kenya 11.3Peru 21.0 Cote d'Ivoire 11.2Philippines 2.9 Guatmal 11.1Dominican Republic 20.5 Benin 11.0Turkey000 0 0 0000 0 0 ji 4 ;;j0i$00020.5 0Morocco 11.Chile 20.4 Bangladesh 10.8Maur 4000 0 0004 0 000000titius :000 0 00020.0 P:land 10.3Nicaragua 19.8 Bolivia 10.3Argentina 18.4 Colombia 10.0India 16.1 Guinea-Bissau 9.2Mexico00 000 M16.0 Pakistan 8 9China 15.8 Mauritania 8.6Brazil : 15.8 i Uru i I:guay .8.6Paraguay 15.4 Venezuela 7.4Costa Rica00000000 t :: 0 15.0m Romani a R6.2Iran 13.8 Madagascar 5.5Ecuador00 ttttt 0 000 j0;13.31 Malawi 5.1Namibia 12.9 Bulgaria 4 8* 1996
Table 2 shows changes in ratios of private investment to GDP between 1990 and 1997.
Table I Chaae aiwPrivate luvestnient Ras )ent)
Bulgaria 443 Chile 11Romania 344 Philippines 11Panama 196 Guinea-Bissau 9C6te dIvoire....h i i 1128 El Salvadorf 9Bolivia 108 Guatemala 8Argentina :i: 95 Ecuadori 8China 92 Kenya 3Benm.j 1 lX|j;jl0)|i;00 lt ;l; 8-ti000lS3000 : ::Naminbia 2Nicaragua 77 Mauritius IPeru 72 Tunisia IBangladesh 68 Pakistan 0fakii04g:t0Si tggl66 South Africa -.2Papua New Guinea 57 Colombia -2Venezuela ; ;;j;000;00000 0 tttt 0 50 Mauitaia-7Malaysia 48 Korea Rep. of -9Turkey 31 Brazil -10Poland 21 Paraguay -15Mexicotit t4000000000 ti it0 :i017|;:; 0 ti ;00 Costa Rica -15India 16 Madagascar -21Indonesia i M Morocco -25Dominican Republic 12 Egypt -28l3elize:;000000 i3fi i$iiiX;T: >12 Thailand -30Uruguay 12 Malawi -56
4
Chapter IIPerceived Obstacles to Doing Business: Worldwide Survey Results
The survey
Why is investment, especially private investment, so low in some developingcountries and so high in others? Levels of investment and how efficiently it is being usedare affected by many factors, most of which can be grouped into (a) macroeconomicpolicies; (b) microeconomic incentives; and (c) institutional factors.
An earlier IFC Discussion Paper' as well as other publications2 draw on the viewsexpressed by CEOs or managers of businesses in groups of developing and, for purposesof benchmarking, mature industrialized economies. The present paper uses the samedata, which were collected under the aegis of the World Bank's 1997 World DevelopmentReport3 as well as additional ones gathered by researchers at the University of Basel (forBrazil, Hong Kong, China, Korea, Singapore, and Thailand).
The survey covers 3,951 firms in 74 countries, mostly in manufacturing andservices (about half each) plus some agricultural firms.4 The survey covers large andsmall firms with and without foreign participation. Interviews were conducted in thecountries where firms operate.
This paper addresses the question: which obstacles to doing business areconsidered to be most serious by private sector managers in particular countries?The answer might help to identify policy domains (macroeconomic, institutional)most relevant in each country and levels of national authority (central, local) mostappropriate to reduce obstacles to doing business.
Managers were asked to judge on a six points scale how problematic variousobstacles are for doing business. The six points range from "no obstacle" and "moderateobstacles," to "strong" and "very strong" obstacles.5 The areas listed are:
* Regulations for starting business/new operations
How Businesses See Government: Responses from Private Sector Surveys in 69 Countries. AymoBrunetti, Gregory Kisunko, and Beatrice Weder, IFC Discussion Paper No. 33, 1998.
2 Institutions in transition: reliability of rules and economic performance in former socialist countries.Aymo Brunetti, Gregory Kisunko, Beatrice Weder, Policy Research Working Paper No. 1809, 1997;Credibility of rules and economic growth: evidence from a worldwide survey of the private sector.Aymo Brunetti, Gregory Kisunko, Beatrice Weder, Policy Research Working Paper No. 1760, 1997;Institutional obstacles to doing business: Region-by-region results from a worldwide survey of theprivate sector. Aymo Brunetti, Gregory Kisunko and Beatrice Weder, Policy Research Working Paper,No. 1759, 1997.
3 The State in a Changing World, Oxford University Press, 1997.
4 The average number of respondents per country is 54 (ranging from 13 in Chad to 124 in Togo), themedian 49 and the standard deviation 29.
Each respondent was limited to checking no more than five "very strong" obstacles.
5
* Price controls* Foreign trade regulations (exports, imports)* Financing* Labor regulations* Foreign currency regulations* Tax regulations and/or high taxes* Infrastructure* Policy instability* Safety or environmental regulations. Inflation* General uncertainty regarding costs of regulations* Crime and theft* Corruption* Terrorism* As well as an open-ended category: "Other."
The discussion also draws on responses to a separate question: "Unpredictabilityof the judiciary presents a major problem for my business operations" for which the sixpoints scale ranges from "fully agree" to "strongly disagree." In order to integratejudiciary unpredictability issues with the other obstacles listed above, we equate "fullyagree" to "very strong obstacles" and "agree in most cases" to "strong obstacles."Throughout this paper, "obstacles" are drawn from the list above (includingunpredictability of the judiciary).
Number of obstacles
The bottom line on Table 3 shows the number of areas which 50 percent or moreof respondents considered to be serious ("strong" and "very strong" responses). It isimportant to bear in mind that the table reflects judgements on the part of businesspeople; the apparent absence of serious problems may mean that the items listed in thequestionnaire do not hinder businesses, and/or that business people have learned to getaround them. Furthermore, comparisons between countries are not straightforwardbecause it is quite possible that the "propensity to complain" varies from country tocountry.
6
Table 3. Reported obstadles to doing business--total number and ranking
Obstacles IIiiiI~~1Iiuaik4Unpredictability of the judiciary 2 ... .4 3 1 10 1 4 4 3Regulations for starting business/niew 3
operationsPnice controlsRegulations on foreign trade (exports, 6 5
Total number of serious obstacles 3 3 0 5 2 6 7 4 5 4per country _______________________________
The number of problematic areas ranges from zero (in 9 countries, 7 developingplus Switzerland and the UK) 6 to 7 and more (in seven countries). The surveys werecarried out in 1996/97; conditions may have changed since then. An updated survey ofbusiness conditions is being planned for 1999, which may make it possible to identifysuch changes. The average number of serious obstacles to doing buisiness is 3.7 in thedeveloping and transition countries and 1.5 in advanced industrial countries.
Table 4 shows the sensitivity of results to using a more restrictive definition ofwhat constitutes a serious problem area, lowering the bar from 50 percent or more ofrespondents to, respectively, 60, 70 and 75 percent. The average number of seriousobstacles changes as follows:
6 Korean, Malaysian, and Thai mianagers did not perceive "strong" obstacles to doing business in 1997; thismay reflect the fact that the survey was undertaken prior to the worst of the East Asian crisis, but mayalso reflect long-term fundamental strengths.
Table 4. Average number of serious obstacles to doing business per country
Number obfseiu btcepeconr-Percentageshare of repondents who view prblesa
serious50% or more 60% orme 70% omre75%or or
Average for developing and transition 3.7 2.2 1.2 0.7countries (63 countries)
Average for advanced developed 1.5 0.5 0.3 0.3countries (I11 countries)
Ratio of averages for developing/ 2.7 4.4 4 2.3transition and advanced developed,countries
The nature of obstacles
The last columns of Table 3 show obstacles to doing business in order offrequency in the countries where firms were surveyed. Using the 50 percent cut-offpoint, the table suggests that taxes are by far the most prevalent perceived obstacle todoing business (72 percent of the countries). The finding is ambivalent, however,because the question combines tax regulations and "high taxes." More meaningful is thefrequency of corruption and the unpredictability of the judiciary, which are perceived in47 and 42 percent respectively of the 74 countries to be a serious obstacle to doingbusiness. Next come, neck-and-neck, crime and theft (31 percent of countries), lack offinancing (30 percent), inadequate infrastructure (27 percent) and inflation (27 percent).In none of the countries were "other" obstacles to doing business considered to beserious, suggesting that the list of possible problem areas was quite comprehensive.
Table 5 compares the perceived seriousness of obstacles in developed anddeveloping countries. Labor regulations and safety and environment regulationsobstacles are considered to be serious obstacles to doing business in a number ofdeveloped countries, but do not loom large in developing economies. Taxes, as noted,are the most prevalent perceived obstacle for all countries (in 90 percent of transitioneconomies and in 64 and 65 percent, respectively, of developed and other developingcountries). Inflation is considered to be a serious obstacle in 35 percent of non-transitiondeveloping countries and 25 percent of transition economies. Infrastructure is considereda problem in 9 percent of developed, 10 percent of transition and 40 percent of othersurveyed developing economies. Obstacles related to political instability and generaluncertainty in the cost of regulations are much more prevalent in transition then in otherdeveloping economies (40 versus 12, and 30 versus 5 percent respectively). Lastly,regulations related to foreign economic activities are more of an obstacle in transitioncountries.
12
Table 5. Obstacles to doing business considered serious by 50% or more of respondents
(percent of countries)
Obstacles All Developed All_ Transition Othercountries :countries deing ies dev-eloping
. --- ~~~~~~~countries - --- countries:Unpredictability of the judiciary 42 9 48 50 47Regulations for starting 1 9 0 0 0
General uncertainty on costs of 11 0 13 30 5regulations
Crimeandtheft 31 0 37 40 35
Corruption 47 0 56 60 53Terrorism 3 0 3 0 5
Other 0 0 0 0 0
Count,y-specific responses
Table 3 ranks the most serious obstacles identified by business people in each
country surveyed. It shows, the relative importance attached to different obstacles (caseswhere 50 percent or more of respondents judged a particular obstacle to be "strong" or
"very strong"). So for example a number 1 means that a particular area was mentionedby the largest proportion of respondents as being a serious obstacle to doing business, a 2the second-most frequent mention and so forth. The ranking of country-specificobstacles to doing business might help governments and aid agencies to prioritize privatesector development strategies, especially in combination with Table 6, which delineatesprimary policy domains on which the lessening of different obstacles depends.
. Labor . General . Regulations forregulations uncertainty on starting
costs of business/newregulations operations
. General . Terrorism . Safety oruncertainty on environmentalcosts of regulationsregulations
. Inadequate . Regulations forsupply of startinginfrastructure business/new
operations
. Regulations of . Safety orforeign trade environmental(exports, regulationsimports)
. Price controls
Some of the obstacles pertain to several policy domains; the balance ofresponsibilities for lessening obstacles between central government and local authoritiesdepends largely on the degree of decentralization existing in specific countries. The mainpoint of Table 5 is that the removal of obstacles to doing business is a sharedresponsibility which requires government commitment at many different levels. Civilsociety can of course play an important role in helping to bring about policy changes.
14
The dog that didn't bark
It is also of interest to map out institutional and policy areas which are notconsidered to be obstacles to doing business. Table 7 (which is similar in layout to Table3) flags ar-eas which 50 percent or more of respondents in each country judged to be "noobstacle" to doing business (checking 1 or 2 on a scale of 6).
Table 7. Reported problem-free areas--total number and ranking
regulationsCrime and theft .... 2 11 15Corruption 2 ...... 7 9Terrorism 2 I I 1 2 3 2 43 58
Other 0 0
Number of unproblematic areas 1 2 7 1 1 1 0 5 3 2
Table 8 aggregates countries by groups, as in Table 5. It suggests that in 58percent of the surveyed countries (73 percent of developed, 65 percent of developing and35 percent of transition countries) terrorism is not perceived to be a serious problem bybusiness people, nor are price controls, which are not considered to be a serious problemin 45 percent of the countries (73 percent of developed, 44 percent of developing and 30percent of transition countries, respectively).
19
Table 8. Reported problem-free areas (percent of countries)
............. .. .. .- eveloped eAl l Transition i thert000Ares i consideratin tk ll .cFountries40 Coun0. itrie devel0oping eco4;nomie eeloping0i^^}i
iEEi;i .i Ei; cou,ntries countnresUnpredictability of the 8 27 5 0 7
Looked at together with problem areas in Table 3 it seems that neither pricecontrols, foreign trade controls or foreign exchange regulations were considered in1996-97 to be serious obstacles to doing business except in a handful countries (Belarus,Bulgaria, Republic of Congo, Fiji, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, West Bank andGaza, and South Africa). Regulations for starting a new business were found to be anobstacle in only one of the surveyed countries, surprisingly a developed one (Austria).These results are indicative of the depth and breadth of liberalization which has takenplace over the last decades.
Obstacles and levels ofprivate investment-econometric results
Econometric calculations presented in Table 97 show that, unsurprisingly, in manycases a definite link exists between 1996 private investment and problems (or lack of
7 The specifications we tested have the following form:Private Inv./GDP96 = aO + al LN(GDP/Const. 87 PPP,90) + a2 LN(Sec school enrol., 1990)+ a3 OBST +
u. Private Inv./GDP96 is a ratio of private investment to GDP in 1996. LN(GDP/Const. 87 PPP,90) isthe logarithm of 1990 GDP per capita calculated at PPP in 1987 prices from a World Barik data base.LN(Sec school enrol., 1990) is the logarithm of growth secondary school enrollment in 1990 also takenfrom a World Bank data base. OBST is an additional variable drawn from the set of 16 obstacles (weran separate tests for "problem" and "problem-free" values of the variable).
20
them) in policy areas relevant to doing business. In some cases the share of businessexecutives reporting that a particular policy area is problematic is significant, in somecases the share of problem-free responses and in other areas both responses are relatedsignificantly to investment. These results are to be treated as preliminary, if only becauseof the small number of countries (23) common to both data sets. Nevertheless, out of 16policy areas 7 are significant for private investment levels when there is a perceivedserious problem in these areas. At the same time, 9 out of the 16 policy areas aresignificant to levels of private investment when they are problem-free. And 4 areas outof 16 (financing, labor regulations, foreign currency regulations, and crime and theft) aresignificant in both cases.
* Significant on the 10 percent confidence level.** Significant on the 5 percent confidence level.
IntecepSignificant on the 1 percenit confidence level.
Source for private n vestment data: Jack Glen and Ma5usz A. Sunlinsl, "Trends in Prvate Investment in DevelopingCountriestatistics for 1970-96," IFC Discussion Papr 34, Wash=2igton, D.C., 1998.
The highest statistical significance for depressing private investment (on the 1
percent confidence level) is for unpredictability of the judiciary and lack of financing.Where financing is not a serious problem this is very positively associated to levels ofprivate investment (significance on the 1 percent confidence level). In contrast, lack ofserious problems with the judiciary are not related significantly to high levels of privateinvestment. The same asymmetrical relationship seems to characterize tax regulationsand corruption-where these are serious problems they depress private investment, butlow taxes and lack of corruption do not by themselves stimulate private investment.
24
Appendix IMethods and Sources
1. Fixed Investment Data
National accounts normally do not break down gross domestic investment into itsprivate and public sector components. Private investment is defined in this publication asthe difference between total gross domestic investment (from national accounts) andconsolidated public investment. Consolidated public investment data for each countrywere compiled mainly from World Bank Country Economic Memoranda, PublicInvestment Reviews, Public Expenditure Reviews, and other World Bank countryreports. They reflect efforts by World Bank missions to compile public sector data.Where World Bank data are not available, country data were used.
The countries included in this edition represent all the developing countries forwhich the relevant data are available. Minor changes were made in the last two or threeyears for most countries as a result of revisions in their national accounts data. Updatesare not available (at the time of this writing) through 1997 for Korea.
Table 1 presents investment figures for each country, including total fixedinvestment (GDFIIGDP); private fixed investment (PRIVATE I/GDP); and public fixedinvestment (Public I/GDP). The ratios are computed using local currency units at currentprices.
, I allQnd,., 9le^IJd__ I t I allqtld ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.......................................................................... ~M S E.. _ *.E6.>..................... ......w. ........................... SE
Note: UnLless otherwise noted the sources are: national authonitie & World BankfIMF staff estansates
Data for 1996/97 are prelainernay/estimates,Chass- private investment uincludes: mnvestment by collectrv-owned units, joint-owned uniits, share-holding uniits,
foreigri-fianded iunts, Hong KongMacao-Tawn-funded units and by individuals.
Brazi - source 1990-1997: FIBU, C;entro de Escudos de Econoinia and Governo/IBRE/FGV, previous yearn World Bank.
1990-9? - privsce irvesrteent mncludes investment by enteiprises controlled by state and local rmuncipalities.
Republic ofKorea - public inestmnent = capital expenditur of consolidated nonfmancia public sector
Mexico - I S88-97 data based 008a new INGI methodology.
Morocco - up to 1990 public inrestmuent are estimtated by investment of 1 4 higgest public companies; 1990-1997 data for the whole economy.
Poland - 1 995-97 GDP includes estimates of "the gey economy"
South Africa - Source: Quarterly Bulletin of South African Reserve Bank.
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