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Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view.These materials can be reproduced only with written approval from Gartner. Such approvals must be requested via e-mail: [email protected]. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
Trends and Directions in Mobile and Wireless
Leif-Olof Wallin
2010 - An Unsettled Mobile Year
EcosystemsPlatform wars
App store competition, and the fight for
developers & content
EcosystemsPlatform wars
App store competition, and the fight for
developers & content
Vendors & operatorsMake or break strategies in 2010 & 2011
Business models evolve
Vendors & operatorsMake or break strategies in 2010 & 2011
Business models evolve
Clouds & ServicesService innovation
Context
New mobile business models, e.g. advertising
Clouds & ServicesService innovation
Context
New mobile business models, e.g. advertising
DevicesSmartphones rule the (developed) world
New devices raise the bar for smartphones
DevicesSmartphones rule the (developed) world
New devices raise the bar for smartphones
Key Issues
1. What will be the key mobile and wireless technology and market trends through 2014?
2. How will corporations choose and use mobile technology, services and tools to support customers and employees?
Key Issues
1. What will be the key mobile and wireless technology and market trends through 2014?
2. How will corporations choose and use mobile technology, services and tools to support customers and employees?
Cellular Network Opportunities & Challenges
HSPA LTEPeak theoretical data rates
Downlink Uplink
1Gbps
100 Mbps
10 Mbps
1 Mbps
100 Kbps
LTE-A
4 bn
3 bn
2 bn
1 bn
02010 2011 2012 2013
GSM
WCDMA & HSPA
CDMA & EV-DOLTE
Cellular subscribers by technology
• Clear technical roadmap to 4G, but many paths to get there• Data demand is exploding, providing the capacity is possible but expensive• Network performance has become a competitive issue• Several generations of network will co-exist in most regions
Smartphones Will Dominate Mature Market Mobility
JapanWEU
LATAM
NA
MEAEEU
APAC
2010 2011 2012 20130%
50%
100%
Device Shipments 2010 - 2013 Smartphones as %ge handsets shipped
2010 2011 2012 2013
0.5 bn
1.0 bn
1.5 bn
2.0 bn
2.5 bn
Basic phonesBasic phones
Enhanced phonesEnhanced phones 11
SmartphonesSmartphones 11
Mobile PCsMobile PCs
(1) Cellular MIDs are included in both the smartphone and enhanced phone categories
Handset Platforms No-one Can Afford to Slip Up
50%
0%
40%
30%
20%
10%
2010 2011 2012 2013
Mobile Platform Market Share Symbian holds the lead, dominated by Nokia despite open source
Android gains share and appears on more devices such as netbooks, e- books and non-phone MIDs
iPhone shipments grow but share changes little as the market expands
RIM loses share to more consumer- oriented platforms & ecosystems
Windows Mobile. Complex microsoft strategy, includes WM7, WM6.x, Pink.
Maemo / Meego replaces Symbian in high-end Nokia devices
Others including Linux, webOS, LIMO remain niche platforms
Mobile Device Trends 2010 - 2013
TransportableTransportable
PortablePortable
PocketablePocketable
PersonalPersonal
ImplantedImplanted
Form factors Features / Technology
• More device types in addition to laptops & smartphones
• Viability of non- pocketable MIDs, the new 0.5 Kg wasteland?
• 8” to 10” screen is the minimum for Windows 7
• Trend towards thinner devices
• GPS in > 90% and WiFi in > 70% smartphones shipped in 2013
• OLED screens allow thinner devices and better battery life
• E-compass complements GPS in high-end devices
• More multi-touch on PCs (Windows 7) and handsets
• Growing interest in wireless charging and novel power sources
• Under 2% of all handsets will support WiMax by 2013
Flexibility
Portability
Mobile Technologies On Your Radar Screen
Bluetooth 3
Bluetooth LE
Mobile Web
LTE
App Stores
Touch interfaces
ContextNear Field Wireless
Location awareness &
augmented reality
M2M & embedded
wireless
Advanced mobile UIs
Pico projectors
Mobile HTML 5 Widgets
2010 - 20122011 - 2015 2011 - 2015
Multicore handsets
Flexible displays
Wireless broadband
802.11n
Platform independent mobile AD
Agents
The Emergence of Contextual Mobility
2009 2010-2012 2015-2020
Device centricPresence, PIM
Device centricLocation, Identity, Simple behavior and habits, Location-aware social networks Simple proactive alerts
People centricSensors, bio sensors Adjacent devices and people, Complex anticipatory behavior, Complex federated services, Contextual social networking
Pre-context Simple single-vendor systems and walled gardens
Open systems and federations
Key Issues
1. What will be the key mobile and wireless technology and market trends through 2014?
2. How will corporations choose and use mobile technology, services and tools to support customers and employees?
Mobile Collaboration 2010-2012
Communication
CoordinationCommunities
Social Interaction
Voice
Messaging such as SMS, mobile e-mail,
MMS
Mobile PIM
Shared information
Mobile portals
Mobile social
networking
Informal voice, messaging etc.
Image and video
sharing
Mobile presence and IM
Moblogs
Location tracking
Interest sharing
Video
Mobile microblogging
Shared documents & portals
Mobile social networking
Collaboration
“Bring Your Own” Mobility Employee-Owned Mobile Devices
No idea of the scope of the
issue
Ban them
Tolerance and policies
Formalise employee ownership
• Risks & unknown benefits
• Survey in US, UK and Germany: 43% orgs. banned employee-owned PCs.
• Limits risk, but no benefit
• Security issues of uncontrolled devices• Stipends and taxation issues• Who provides support?• How to encourage standards?• Is there a business case? If so what?• Who should not buy their own devices?• Controlled choice and managed diversity,
e.g. “platform”, “appliance” and “concierge”• Corporate cellular contracts on employee-