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Tree-Ring Chronologies of Western North America:California, Eastern Oregon and Northern GreatBasin with Procedures Used in the ChronologyDevelopment Work Including Users Manuals
for Computer Programs COFECHA and ARSTAN
Authors Holmes, Richard L.; Adams, Rex K.; Fritts, Harold C.
Publisher Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona (Tucson,AZ)
FIGURES APPEARING IN SITE CHRONOLOGIES (APPENDIX 3):
Figure A3 -1 ARSTAN chronology for Site 4, Horse Ridge,Oregon, Juniperus occidentalis . . 77
Figure A3 -2 ARSTAN chronology for Site 10, JarbidgeCanyon, Nevada, Juniperus scopulorum 98
Figure A3 -3 Western juniper of the northern subspeciesoccidentalis), at Site 11, Hager Basin,
102California
Figure A3 -4 ARSTAN chronology for Site 14, DaltonReservoir, California, Pinus ponderosa. . . . 112
Figure A3 -5 Ponderosa pine, Site 26, at Snow WhiteRidge, California 157
Figure A3 -6 Western juniper of the southern subspecies(australis) at Site 28, Kaiser Pass,
162California
Figure A3 -7 Jeffrey pine at Site 30, Buenavista,California 170
Figure A3 -8 ARSTAN chronology for Site 33, Sorrel Peak,California 130
4
TABLES Page
Table 1. Tree -ring chronology collections, 1981 to1985 11
Table 2. Selected statistics of Standard tree -ringchronologies 12
Table 3. Tree -ring collections from which nochronology was derived 13
Table 4. Selected statistics of chronologies and commoninterval analysis of maximum latewood densityand ring width obtained by x -ray densitometry 17
Table 5. Selected statistics àf chronologies and commoninterval analyses of crossdated and countedtree -ring measurement sets 17
Table 6. Effects of various standardization optionson selected chronology statistics 24
Table 7. Chronology statistics after curve -fittingwith INDEX or ARSTAN, Calamity Creek site . . 26
Table 8. Chronology statistics after curve- fittingwith INDEX or ARSTAN, Antelope Lake site. . . 27
5
INTRODUCTION
This is the final report of a chronology developmentproject supported by the United States National ScienceFoundation, Division of Atmospheric Sciences, ClimateDynamics Research Section, through Grants ATM -8026732 andATM -8303192. The principal Investigator was Harold C.Fritts. Richard L. Holmes was the senior research assistantand directed the field collection and the chronologydevelopment work. Rex K. Adams was research assistant andfor one year Virginia C. Kirby was research technician onthe project.
The major objective was to develop a relatively denseand uniform grid of long, well -replicated, climaticallyresponsive tree -ring chronologies for California west of thecrest of the Sierra Nevada and the Cascade Range, and foreastern Oregon and the northern Great Basin. Thesechronologies are now added to existing data to enhancespatial reconstruction of past climatic variability. Thisvolume contains the summary data on these tree -ringchronologies, along with descriptions of their statisticsand site characteristics.
The project work involved several innovations in recordkeeping, sample preparation and data processing. Amongthese are an efficient format for field notes, a versatilecore mount, a technique for straightening twisted cores,mounting and surfacing methods, and dating marks which donot interfere with subsequent densitometric use of thesamples. A computer program to assist quality control ofcrossdating and measuring was developed and used on alltree -ring data generated on the project. A computer programto produce tree -ring chronologies was developed by Edward R.Cook at Lamont -Doherty Geological Observatory, and wastested, further developed and used to produce allchronologies on this project. Users manuals for bothcomputer programs were written on this project and areincluded in this report.
6
BACKGROUND
Well -dated tree -ring chronologies (Stokes and Smiley,1968) covering a wide geographic area can provide yearlyproxy data for studies of climatic and hydrologic variationover both space and time (Earle and Fritts, 1986; Fritts etal., 1971, 1979; Hecht 1985; Hughes et al., 1980; Stocktonand Meko, 1983). The rings can be crossdated to the exactseason and year in which they were formed (Stokes andSmiley, 1968); and tree -ring chronologies can be developedfrom measurements along replicated radii sampled from manytrees in a limited geographical area.
The ring measurements are usually mathematicallytreated by a procedure called "standardization ", whichremoves the biological growth trend. Indices are calculatedby dividing the ring measurements by an estimated growthvalue, and the indices are averaged for all samples ofadequate quality to obtain the chronology values (Fritts,1976) .
Prior to this project, few tree -ring site chronologieshad been developed for California west of the crest of theSierra Nevada and the southern Cascade Range, or for easternOregon and the northern Great Basin. Keen (1937) took v-cuts from some 265 cut stumps of ponderosa pine in Oregoneast of the Cascade Range, and developed tree-ringchronologies for five sites. Antevs (1938) took v -cuts fromsome 100 cut stumps of ponderosa pine near Susanville,California and Lakeview, Oregon, and developed tree -ringchronologies for these two sites. Existing chronologieseither coverOd a relatively short time span, were ofinadequate quality for climatic studies, had too littlereplication or required updating because they were developedmore than 48 years ago.
In addition a great many areas had been disturbed soseverely by human activity such as logging, mining, railroadconstruction and fires that few old trees remained forpaleoclimatic analysis. A systematic collection effort inareas not well represented by quality tree -ring chronologieswas important to assure that this information from old treeswas not forever lost.
COLLECTION STRATEGY
The choice of species to sample was based partly on the
results of an exploratory field trip undertaken in October1980 to prepare for this project, and partly on exploratorysampling done on each field expedition. The speciesyielding the best quality tree -ring series in the region arewestern juniper (Juniperus occidentalis, both the northernsubspecies occidentalis and the southern subspeciesaustralis); Rocky Mountain juniper (Juniperus scopulorum);ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa); Jeffrey pine (Pinus
7
jeffreyi); and sugar pine (Pinus lambertiana).
Five field expeditions averaging three weeks each werecarried out, two in the summer of 1981 and one each in thesummers of 1982, 1983 and 1985.
SITE SELECTION
A critical step in the production of useful tree -ringchronologies is to find stands of trees with a clear andmarked ring growth response to climatic variations.Information on species range, distribution, size andpotential age was obtained from the literature. Personnelof the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service and theU.S. Department of the Interior National Park Service andBureau of Land Management also provided many leads thathelped us find trees suitable for sampling. Within therecommended areas it was usually necessary to locate steep,rocky, well- drained, generally south -facing slopes withwidely spaced trees and relatively sparse ground cover tofind the maximum age and ring -width variability needed foran optimum tree -ring chronology. The individual trees wereselected by their appearance and by examining the characterof the rings from an exploratory core. Trees with arelatively sparse crown, massive and irregularly taperingtrunk, few but heavy branches and generally unsymmetricappearance were usually the oldest with the strongest year -to -year ring -width variability, which is associated with astrong climatic response (Fritts, 1976). To the extentpossible, trees were avoided that had evidence of majorinjury from fire, lightning strike, ice storms, wind damage,branch cutting, logging, road building or other disturbance.
Undisturbed stands that fulfill requirements of age,year -to -year ring -width variability and crossdating weresometimes difficult to find, so some disturbance by man wasunavoidable in most of the pine sites. In such cases thesite description includes the type and severity ofdisturbance that was noted.
The juniper sites appear less disturbed than those forthe other species, but some junipers were cut for fencepostsand firewood. Most stands of juniper contain only youngtrees under 90 years of age. In those stands where a fewolder trees could be seen, old trees suitable for chronologydevelopment could usually be found with some searching.
SAMPLING
Generally two increment core samples were taken fromopposite sides of each tree. More than two cores were takenin the case of a particularly old individuals with markedyear -to -year variability in ring width. Between thirty and
8
fifty trees were sampled if that many suitable trees couldbe found in the area. This provided ample replication sothat any cores from young trees or cores revealing sitedisturbance or growth anomalies could be deleted from thesample in order to enhance the overall reliability of thechronology.
Records were kept, with description and sketch of thelayout of the site, showing where trees were sampled andincluding information on access, latitude, longitude andelevation, and details on geology, ground cover, standdensity and associated species. This information ispresented in the site descriptions and some is listed inTable 2. Photographs (35 mm color slides) were taken of thesite and of some typical trees. Detailed notes were made oneach sampled tree, including succinct characterization ofheight, diameter, appearance of trunk, crown and foliage,visible scars, relationship to nearby trees, direction andsteepness of slope, and from where on the trunk the coresamples were extracted.
Figure 1 and Table 1 present information on all sitecollections from which chronologies were derived. Table 3contains information on other site collections from which nochronology was developed.
CROSSDATING, MEASUREMENT, AND RELATED PROCEDURES
Core samples were dried, mounted, surfaced andexamined. Some cores were rejected for further processingbecause they 1) spanned short time periods (under 150 to 200years), 2) had weak crossdating as indicated by a lowcorrelation with other cores in the site, 3) containedobvious scar tissue or other evidence of severe injury,4) exhibited pronounced growth surges, periods ofsuppression or badly twisted segments, or 5) were found tohave indistinct ring boundaries.
The remaining cores were dated. Binocular zoommicroscopes (7 to 45 power) were used to examine the coresand the procedures of crossdating followed those of Stokesand Smiley (1968). After all rings were dated, widths weremeasured to the nearest 0.01 mm on computerized measuringmachines as described by Robinson and Evans (1980). Spotchecks of some measurement series were made by Holmes toassure their accuracy. A second and more thorough check wasmade using a computer- assisted method, Program COFECHA,developed by Holmes (see Appendix 1). This method examinesall series from a site throughout their length, pointing outlocations within series that may have weak or erroneouscrossdating or measurement error. These cores andmeasurement series were then reexamined by a researcher toevaluate the possible weaknesses and to make correctionswhere they were necessary. A second run of Program COFECHA
9
o
OREGON
SPR
COMHOR CAL
aLOS LIT
STEGRA
IDAHO
SHR HAG
DAL TIMJAC
CALIFORNIA LIK
J
ANT NEVADA
SSHBLU
ANTr
HHA I FEL LEMSJM DON
Scale
SNOJeffrey pine Pines jeffreyi
JAR
TREE -RING SITE CHRONOLOGIES
Site code appears adjacentto species symbol
Western juniper Juniperus occidentalis
Rocky Mountain juniper Juniperus scopulorum
Ponderosa pine Pines siderosa
DDFKAI Sugar pine Pinus lambertiana
BLAs
O
BUE
KEN
PIU SOR
500 km
300 mi
Figure 1. Map of tree -ring site chronologies.
l0
Table
Order
N - S
1. Tree -ring chronology collections, 1981 to 1985,
Site Species Latitude
Code Site name State code North
listed north to south.
Longitude Altitude Trees
West meters sampled
1 SPR SPRING CANYON OR Juoc 44 54 118 55 1340 -1610 39
2 COM COMMITTEE CREEK OR Juoc 44 10 120 14 1486 -1518 31
3 CAL CALAMITY CREEK OR Juoc 43 59 118 48 1433 -1494 40
4 HOR HORSE RIDGE OR Juoc 43 58 121 04 1109 -1183 43
5 FRE FREDERICK BUTTE OR Juoc 43 35 120 27 1433 -1554 50
6 LOS LOST FOREST OR Pipo 43 22 120 18 1364 -1384 26
7 LIT LITTLE JUNIPER MTN OR Juoc 43 08 119 52 1524 -1768 49
33 SOR SORREL PEAK CA Pije 35 26 118 17 1975 -2256 25
* Collected by other than University of Arizona personnel.
11
Table
Order
N - S
2.
Selected statistics of 'Standard tree-ring chronologies
Auto-
Auto-
Site
Spec
Chronology
No of
No of
Mean
Std
corn
regr.
code
code
time span
trees
radii
sens
dev
ord 1
model
Error variance
Stndrd Arstan
Common
interval
1SPR
Juoc
1405 -1982
31
59
.29
.35
.44
2.0130
.0086
1847 -1982
2COM
Juoc
1260 -1982
22
40
.27
.31
.41
2.0104
.0069
1747 -1982
3CAL
Juoc
1396 -1982
29
49
.27
.28
.23
2.0059
.0051
1774 -1981
4HOR
Juoc
1281 -1982
36
66
.58
.53
.31
2.0114
.0109
1755 -1982
5FRE
Juoc
1097 -1982
32
76
.46
.41
.19
3.0062
.0055
1750 -1982
6LOS
Pipo
1459 -1982
23
48
.30
.38
.61
2.0044
.0054
1624 -1982
7LIT
Juoc
1377 -1982
35
66
.43
.39
.23
5.0099
.0075
1781 -1982
8STE
Juoc
1501 -1982
25
50
.25
.26
.35
2.0035
.0025
1785 -1982
9GRA
Juoc
1492 -1984
30
61
.27
.28
.27
2.0049
.0028
1769 -1976
10
JAR
Jusc
1334 -1984
21
42
.27
.28
.28
3.0070
.0050
1764 -1984
11
HAG
Juoc
1310 -1980
24
54
.23
.24
.27
2.0058
.0037
1803 -1980
12
SHR
Juoc
1548 -1982
27
50
.31
.33
.29
2.0243
.0222
1801 -1981
13
TIM
Juoc
1654 -1980
13
22
.22
.25
.43
2.0075
.0048
1777 -1972
14
DAL
Pipo
1357 -1980
20
43
.21
.30
.65
3.0077
.0077
1692 -1975
15
JAC
Juoc
1267 -1984
29
72
.27
.27
.28
2.0068
.0055
1758 -1981
16
LIK
Pije
1653 -1980
14
27
.24
.27
.48
3.0038
.0040
1859 -1980
17
ANT
Pije
1471 -1980
25
56
.15
.20
.60
3.0040
.0038
1727 -1980
18
ANT
Pipo
1484 -1980
13
32
.17
.21
.57
3.0043
.0054
1703 -1975
19
BLU
Pije
1318 -1980
24
57
.16
.19
.45
3.0054
.0044
1656 -1926
20
HHA
Pije
1497 -1980
13
30
.15
.17
.40
3.0039
.0028
1682 -1948
21
SSH
Pipo
1582 -1980
12
26
.15
.17
.35
3.0053
.0036
1686 -1830
22
LEM
Pije
1415 -1980
34
64
.20
.24
.50
2.0039
.0028
1783 -1980
23
FEL
Pila
1543 -1980
28
56
.15
.19
.54
3.0040
.0029
1825 -1964
24
SJM
Pipo
1500 -1980
25
55
.16
.18
.38
3.0076
.0041
1706 -1974
25
DON
Pije
1510 -1980
611
.17
.22
.50
1.0083
.0077
1551 -1861
26
SNO
Pipo
1557 -1980
13
26
.19
.20
.31
3.0055
.0048
1768 -1980
27
DDF
Pije
1441 -1980
16
35
.15
.18
.42
1.0060
.0039
1711 -1935
28
KAI
Juoc
1140 -1981
28
54
.19
.25
.58
5.0059
.0042
1795 -1981
29
BLA
Pipo
1527 -1981
33
67
.15
.20
.53
3.0030
.0032
1700 -1925
30
BUE
Pije
1434 -1981
38
62
.14
.17
.45
3.0050
.0035
1703 -1958
31
KEN
Pije
1607 -1981
29
58
.40
.41
.45
3.0071
.0043
1732 -1976
32
PIU
Pije
1528 -1981
22
48
.22
.28
.58
2.0032
.0033
1764 -1950
& Pipo
33
SOR
Pije
1505 -1981
25
46
.29
.42
3.0046
.0035
1692 -1947
Table 3.
Tree -ring collections from which no chronology was derived
Site
Spec
No of
Altitude
Date
Site name
code
County
State
code
trees
meters
Lat N
Long W
collected
WHEELER POINT
WHE
WHEELER
OR
Juoc
61519 -1522
44
58
119 54
JUL 1983
TAMARACK MTN
TAM
GRANT and
Juoc
19
1134 -1341
44
56
119 41
JUL 1983
WHEELER
OR
WILLIAMS PRAIRIE
WIL
CROOK
OR
Pipo
71451 -1457
44
16
120 14
JUL 1983
YELLOWJACKET LAKE
YEL
HARNEY
OR
Juoc
52
1512 -1536
43
53
119 19
JUL 1983
GLASS BUTTES
GLA
LAKE
OR
Juoc
51433 -1433
43
30
120 07
JUN 1983
HART MTN REFUGE
HAR
LAKE
OR
Juoc
51615 -1639
42
32
119 46
JUN 1983
JACK CREEK SUMMIT
JCS
ELKO
NV
Pial
35
2621 -3109
41
32
115 58
JUN 1985
YOUNGS CORRAL
YOC
LAKE
CA
Pipo
13
1402 -1488
39
16
122 45
JUL 1981
LEWIS MTN
LEW
TUOLUMNE
CA
Pipo
23
1427 -1622
38
01
120 09
SEP 1981
RETCH HETCHY RES
HET
TUOLUMNE
CA
Pije
24
1610 -1741
37
58
119 48
SEP 1981
POOPENAUT PEAK
P00
TUOLUMNE
CA
Pije
32
1524 -1585
37
54
119 50
SEP 1981
Pipo
9
PILOT RIDGE
PIR
TUOLUMNE and
Pipo
17
976 -1585
37
49
120 00
SEP 1981
MARIPOSA
CA
MONO HOT SPRS
MON
FRESNO
CA
Pije
34
2121 -2292
37
21
119 01
JUL 1982
FLORENCE LAKE
FLO
FRESNO
CA
Pije
18
2256 -2341
37
17
118 59
JUL 1982
GRAHAM HILL
GRH
SANTA CRUZ
CA
Pipo
12
256- 268
37
02
122 02
AUG 1982
WISHON RES
WIS
FRESNO
CA
Pije
16
1999 -2219
36
58
118 58
JUL 1982
PATTERSON BLUFFS
PAT
FRESNO
CA
Pije
22
2097 -2292
36
56
119 04
JUL 1982
MINERAL KING
MKR
TULARE
CA
Pipo
13
1829 -1951
36
27
118 42
SEP 1981
KERN RIVER
KER
TULARE
CA
Pipo
10
1609 -1780
36
06
118 29
JUL 1982
DOME ROCK
DOM
TULARE
CA
Pije
17
1975 -2201
36
03
118 32
JUL 1982
GREENHORN MTNS
GRE
KERN
CA
Pipo
23
1426 -1487
35
35
118 39
JUL 1982
SAN GORGONIO
SGE
SAN BERNARDINO
CA
Pifl
168
2743 -3246
34
07
116 54
1971 -79
was used to verify that all changes were correct and thedata set was clean and ready for chronology assembly.
STANDARDIZATION AND CHRONOLOGY DEVELOPMENT
Computer program ARSTAN was used to standardize thering width series and to assemble the chronology. Thisprogram had been developed by Edward R. Cook of Lamont -Doherty Geological Observatory, and it was perfected incooperation between him and Holmes (Cook, 1985 and Appendix2). This program employs advanced time -series and relatedstatistical techniques such as autoregressive modeling andbiweight robust estimation of the mean value function. Wehelped to develop and utilized the option that estimates thegrowth function first by fitting exponential or straightline curves, indexing, and removing any remaining trends byfitting a relatively rigid cubic smoothing spline to theindices and recalculating the indices.
A chronology with many replicated samples has a highersignal -to -noise ratio than one made up of few samples, andthe standard errors of chronology indices are smaller, asillustrated in Figure 2.
Three chronology representations are generated: (1)
"Standard," using the standardized series combined withbiweight robust mean estimation without autoregressivemodeling; (2) "Residual," the residuals from autoregressivemodeling of individual series combined using the biweightrobust mean estimation (these are called white noiseresiduals because they have a nearly uniform amount ofvariance at all frequencies); and (3) "ARSTAN," achronology derived by adding the modeled common persistenceto the residual chronology. All three chronologyrepresentations are included in this report.
Statistics are calculated by Program ARSTAN for theentire length of the chronology, and for a subset of serieswhich span a common time interval (see Appendix 2). Thissubset is computed so as to contain the maximum possiblenumber of rings.
X-RAY DENSITOMETRY
It was intended at the outset of the project to producewood density chronologies by x -ray densitometric analysis.The cores were mounted in a way that allowed for density aswell as ring width analysis. A test site early in theproject was processed using Jeffrey pine cores from LikelyMountain, California, one of our smaller site collections.In addition to ring -width analysis, the data were processeddensitometrically by A. S. McCord to produce series ofannual ring widths and maximum latewood densities. The
14
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
C5
Tre
es /9
Cor
es(io
Tre
es/ 1
4 C
ores
Tre
es/ 2
0C
ores
)27
Tre
es /4
7C
ores
)
2.0
NM
NU
)00
$_0
tM0
I
YE
AR
CN
I
°O
)C
`nC
I)Q
)F
Sig
nal
= 0
.015
0S
igna
l-
0.02
22S
igna
l=
0.0
424
Sig
nal
-0.
0748
Noi
se=
0.0
119
Noi
se-
0.00
50N
oise
0.00
34N
oise
0.00
14
S/N
Rat
io-
1.26
1.5-
X ó 1.
0z
0.5
0.0
-
S/N
Rat
io-
4.44
S/N
Rat
io -
12.
47S
/N R
atio
- 53
.43
1400
1450
1500
1550
1600
1651
'0
1700
1750
16ó0
YE
RR
S
Figure 2.
The relationship between number of trees and cores, standard error, and
the signal -to -noise ratio for the Hager Basin Juniperus occidentalis chronology.
technology for other types of measurement using our systemhad not been developed at the time of the test. Thechronology of maximum latewood densities is presentedfollowing the ring -width chronology for Likely Mountain.
The x -ray densitometric processing required over tentimes the personnel time expended in optically measuringring width (also see Cleaveland, 1983). In addition, theorientation of the rings in the core sample must be verynearly perpendicular for x -ray analysis. This reduced thenumber of rings that could be analyzed so that the resultingdata set was smaller by 47 percent. Conkey (1982) foundthat in red spruce (Picea rubens) in Maine, wood densityvariation had a stronger common signal than ring widths. Onthe other hand, Cleaveland (1983, p 149) found that forDouglas -fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), ponderosa pine andpinyon pine (Pinus edulis) growing in semiarid parts ofnorthwestern New Mexico aand southwestern Colorado, densitydata are inferior to ring -width measurements forcrossdating.
In the test case (Table 4), the standard deviation, themean sensitivity and the common signal in the density dataproved to be substantially smaller than that of the ringwidth data. The correlation between trees in the density setwas only 71 percent as large as the correlation betweentrees in the ring -width set; the signal -to -noise ratio was51 percent of the ratio for the ring -width set; and thevariance contained in the first eigenvector was 75 percentof that in the ring -width set.
At that time there was a large backlog of cores andsites that had been collected for the project. With thereduced funding level at that time, we concluded that all ofthe quality ring -width data should be processed beforeattempting more density work. There were so many new andexcellent sites collected in subsequent years, that we havenot had the time and resources to return to the more labor -intensive densitometric part of the project. All cores havebeen documented, mounted, and archived in anticipation ofeventual densitometric analysis.
EFFECTS OF UNDISCOVERED ABSENT RINGS
How much would a tree -ring chronology be affected bythe existence of undiscovered locally absent rings, and bythe consequent erroneous dating of the ring sequence? Thefollowing exercise was carried out to illustrate the effect.
Sorrel Peak, a site with a relatively high proportionof absent rings, was selected for this study. There are 144locally absent rings in a data set of 14723 ringmeasurements for this site (.978 percent). It is a Jeffreypine site near the southern end of the Sierra Nevada in
16
Table 4. Selected statistics of chronologies and common intervalanalyses of maximum latewood density and ring width obtained byx -ray densitometry from Likely Mountain, California, Jeffreypine. The chronology spans the interval AD 1699 to 1980 (282years) with 8 trees and 16 radii. The common interval includesall trees and radii, and spans AD 1857 to 1979 (123 years).
Standard chronology
A B
Maximumlatewood Ring Ratiodensity width A/B
Mean sensitivity .087 .227 .38
Standard deviation .099 .273 .36
Autocorrelation order 1 .369 .464
Common interval analysis
Mean correlationsAll radii pairs .421 .589 .71
Only between trees (Y variance) .404 .573 .71
Only within trees .630 .769 .82
Signal -to -noise ratio 5.42 10.72 .51
Agreement with population .844 .915 .92
% variance in eigenvector 1 45.7 60.8 .75
Table 5. Selected statistics of chronologies and common intervalanalyses of crossdated and counted tree -ring measurement sets. The
chronology, derived from the Sorrel Peak Jeffrey pine samples,including 25 trees and 46 radii, and spans the years AD 1505 to 1981(477 years). The common interval spans 256 years from AD 1692 to1947, including 21 trees and 32 radii.
A B Ratio
Standard chronology Crossdated Counted B/A
Mean sensitivity .288 .100 .35
Standard deviation .312 .206 .66
Autocorrelation order 1 .430 .818 1.90
% variance due to autoregression 20.5 69.5 3.39
Common interval analysis
Mean correlations:All radii pairs .584 .278 .48
Only between trees (Y ) .578 .276 .48
Only within trees .788 .355 .45
Signal -to -noise ratio 26.06 7.24 .28
Variance in eigenvector 1 59.5 31.7 .53
17
California, with desirable chronology characteristics (Table5).
This data set was altered by deleting all zero valuesrepresenting the absent rings and moving the assigned yearsforward in time to fill the gaps. These altered data werecalled the "counted" data set as they simulated the resultthat would be expected from counting the rings from the barkto the center without using crossdating techniques.
In checking the crossdating of the two data. sets,Program COFECHA (see Appendix 1) calculates a meanintercorrelation among the crossdated series of .807 withtwo 50 -year segments flagged as possibly having problems,while for the counted series the intercorrelation was .313with 444 segments flagged.
Table 5 includes selected statistics for the two datasets calculated by program ARSTAN (Appendix 2). In thisexample, when the absent rings were deleted, the meansensitivity declined to 35 percent of that for thecrossdated set, the standard deviation declined to 66percent, the first order autocorrelation increased by 90percent and the proportion of variance due to autoregressionincreased 239 percent. The means of the correlationsbetween series declined to 45 and 48 percent. The signal -to -noise ratio declined to 28 percent and the variance ineigenvector 1 declined to 53 percent of that for thecrossdated set.
The mean chronologies for these two data sets aresuperimposed on one another in Figure 3. Values in thecrossdated chronology are emphasized with dots. The plot atthe very top of the graph shows the sample size -- thenumber of samples included for each year -- and the numbercorrectly dated and misdated. Proceeding inward from thebark on each counted sample, dating is in agreement until1972, the date of the outermost absent ring. From thatpoint inward to the center, many of the rings are misdated.The ring for 1972, for example, is absent in 11 out of the27 series, so the ring width for 1971 is erroneously enteredin its place for 11 cores.
Examination of Figure 3 reveals that as the proportionof misdated rings increases, the high- frequency varianceappears to diminish. In particular, the years of very highor low growth do not show up as such. Going back throughtime, most series accumulate more than one undiscoveredabsent ring, and the series become misplaced by severalyears. As more series exhibit this trait, the low- frequencyvariance becomes gradually more prominent and displacedforward in time. Note for instance the displacement of low -frequency waves around 1755, 1710, 1670, 1650 and 1555 to1568.
18
40-
W J L ÿ20 2.0
,../
SAMPLE DEPTH
DRIED
MISORTED
II
'I
1.5-
ó 1.
0z
-40
-20
_2.0
s
0.5 -
0.0
1510
1520
1530
1540
1550
1560
1570
1580
40 2.0
1600
1610
1620
1630
1640
1650
1660
1670
1680
1690
1700
1710
1720
1730
1740
YE
AR
S
I1
1I
II 'SORTED
DATED
\SAMPLE DEPTH
-40
-20
1.5
-
1760
1770
1780
1790
1800
1810
1820
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1860
'
1890
l9Ó
0l9
Ì019
2019
3019
4019
50
YE
AR
S
2.0
1.5
1.0
-0.5
1960
1970
1913
0
1.0
-0.5
-0.
0
Figure 3.
Plot of crossdated and counted chronologies from Jeffrey pine at Sorrel
Peak, California.
Values in the crossdated chronology are emphasized with dots.
Sample size is shown above, indicating the number of dated and misdated rings for
each year.
This exercise suggests that if crossdating is not wellperformed, due to undiscovered absent rings or otherreasons, the variability of the series is reduced, with agreater percent of variance at low frequencies and adisplacement forward in time. As indicated in the commoninterval analysis, the common signal is reduced by lowermean correlations among series, lower signal -to -noise ratioand a smaller proportion of variance expressed by the firsteigenvector.
EVALUATING STANDARDIZATION PROCEDURES
Before any chronologies were developed on this project,we selected a dated and measured Jeffrey pine collectionfrom Baja California on which we could experiment withdifferent standardization techniques. The chronology hadbeen developed for the site and is published. Themeasurement series from the site were divided into twogroups: seven trees (fourteen radii) where the negativeexponential curve could be fit ( "expo" series), and sixtrees (twelve radii) where it could not be fit. Aregression line had been fit to these trees to develop theoriginal chronology. These were called the "regression"series. Two trees were rejected for this analysis becausetheir radii were dissimilar.
Analyses of variance and power spectra were run onchronologies composed of all thirteen trees, of the seven"expo" series and of the six "regression" series. Thechronologies were generated from series standardized byseveral methods: negative exponential curve (for exposeries), regression line (for regression series), polynomial(regression series) and cubic smoothing splines of differentstiffness. Power spectra revealed that a large proportionof the variance in chronologies was contained in the verylow frequencies ( >= 100 years), producing a "spike" on thespectrum plots for the chronologies where the negativeexponential, regression line or very stiff spline had beenused. This "spike" was less pronounced when the data werestandardized with a polynomial function or flexible splineswith 50% frequency response over time periods of 150 yearsor less.
It was suggested by Cook that the cubic spline mightenhance the error in the most recent part of a chronologywhich' will be referred to as an "end effect ". Thishypothesis was tested by using various standardizationmethods and calculating the mean of the 10 standarddeviations of the residuals for the latest decade of thechronology. A large standard deviation would indicate alarge spread in core indices and possible "end effect" ofthe standardization curve. It was found that the standarddeviation was smallest for flexible splines and those of
20
medium stiffness, and largest for the regression line, thevery stiff splines and the negative exponential curve. Weconcluded that the spline has no appreciable end effect.However, we were hesitant to use flexible splines as theywould remove low -frequency variation. We began examining andcomparing various standardizing techniques for use in theproject.
In October, 1983, Cook provided computer Program ARSTANto the Laboratory. At that time, Cook was concerned that anartificial frequency distribution might be induced by usingsplines of the same stiffness for initial detrending of thering -width series. For this reason and in order to leavemore low frequency variance in the longer series, Cook andHolmes decided to express spline stiffness as a percent ofseries length rather than by a fixed stiffness. Accordingto Cook, this artificiality was later shown to be extremelysmall, if it exists at all. Expressing the spline stiffnessas a percent of the series length was neverthelessconsidered to be an improvement.
Power spectra were then run on chronologies whosecomponent radii were detrended by using splines of stiffnessexpressed as various percentages from 16% through 200% ofthe series length. As expected, the stiffer splines ( > 60 %)produced a low -frequency spike, very flexible splines( < 30 %) had spectra with little very low- frequency variance,and the splines between 30% and 50% had moderate amounts oflow - frequency variance. There was a marked change in thelow -frequency peak for splines with stiffness from 50% to60 %.
In order to see what was occurring when a particularcurve was fit to a measurement series, the curve was plottedsuperimposed on the data series (Figure 4). One conclusionfrom examining these plots was that a negative exponentialcurve usually fits well over the early third or so of thedata where tree growth is declining steeply, but then oftenrides along for many consecutive decades above or below thelocal mean in the relatively flat later two -thirds or so ofthe data. A stiff spline, on the other hand, follows wellthe local mean of the middle and later part of the series,but cannot bend sharply enough to fit the steep early partof the ring -width data. We wondered if this problem withthe trend fitting could be resolved by applying both curvesto the data without removing too much of the information atlow frequencies.
A procedure we called the "double detrending" (two -stage curve fitting and standardization) procedure wasdeveloped and tested. First, a negative exponential curveis fit to the ring -width series using least squaresprocedures and the usual index value is calculated. Thisproduces a more or less stationary time series with ahomogeneous variance, but the conversion to indices
21
2.4
Z.Z 2.0-
I
1.6
1-6
-
1 .4 1.2-
1.0
0.8-
I;
11
1500
,I
11
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I, 1
I,
I,
II
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r11
1011
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i1Y
irj
I,
ir.,.,
..
1
.r
II
II
li
1 -
11
-
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- 1
1550
L600
1650
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1 Fr
If
I
1700
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0
YE
AR
OF
GR
OW
TH
1I
1
180:
3
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I1
1,
,I
11I
1,
II
-2.0
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4
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-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
,0.
4
O.Z
II
1I
II
IT
TI
I1
u.0
1850
1900
1950
Figure 4.
Two detrending curves fit to a tree -ring measurement series.
The light
smooth line is a negative exponential curve; the heavy line is a cubic smoothing
spline of stiffness equal to the series length, 512 years.
Note that the exponential
curve fits well the early third of the series, but is almost entirely below the series
from 1590 to 1750, and above the series from there to 1950.
The spline, on the other
hand, fits well the later two - thirds of the series, but cannot bend sharply enough to
accommodate the steep decline from 1460 to 1590.
introduces some trend which is magnified near the end wherethe fitted growth curve reached its lowest value. Second, astiff cubic spline (with 50% of the variance removed forperiods equal to the length, n, of each series) is fit andthe index is divided by its value to correct for trends thathad not been removed or that had been introduced by fittingthe negative exponential curve. This is different from thespline in Figure 4 as that was fit directly to the ring -width data and not the indices calculated from theexponential curve.
This method proved effective in reducing the pronouncedlow- frequency spectral spike on series to which a negativeexponential curve could be fit, but the spline seemed toostiff for series where no exponential curve could be fitted.To these series the second stage of detrending wasaccomplished first with a spline with stiffness of 50% theseries length. Holmes wrote the double detrendingcapability into program ARSTAN. Later consultation betweenCook and Holmes, along with accumulated experience,indicated that a somewhat stiffer spline would be desirable,and it was agreed that two -thirds of the series length was adesirable stiffness for series where a negative exponentialcould not be fit first. Following these detrendingoperations, ARSTAN calculates and removes any linear trendbefore it begins time -series modeling. The indices are thenaveraged to produce what is called the "STANDARD"chronology, e.g. one that resembles the usual chronologyproduced by INDEX.
Plots of power spectra and of series with detrendingcurves superimposed, along with printout from runs ofProgram ARSTAN using double detrending, were sent to Cook.After he had a chance to examine the plots and perform someanalyses, he concurred in the importance of removing thegrowth function as precisely as possible before furtherdetrending and time -series analysis.
It was reasoned that if "double detrending" improvesstandardization, the standard deviation of the core indicesthat are averaged to obtain the yearly mean chronology indexwill be smaller on average than if it is done with singledetrending. Runs were made of Programs INDEX /SUMAC andARSTAN on a number of ring -width data sets. Table 6shows some of the statistical effects of different optionsranging from using only INDEX /SUMAC to using many of theoptions offered by ARSTAN. There was a very small increasein mean sensitivity from option 1 through 8 and a very smalldecrease in the standard deviation. The autoregressivemodeling and biweight mean appear to reduce the first orderautocorrelation to some extent. The mean of correlationcoefficients between the different radii increases fromoption 1 through 8. The mean correlation between trees isan estimate of the percent signal in the individual treeradii (Wigley et al., 1982). Thus the signal estimate
23
Table 6: Effects of various standardization options on selected chronology statistics.
Data are for Juniperus
occidentalis from Calamity Creek, Oregon for 10 selected trees, 2
cores per tree, chosen for negative exponental
growth trend.
The chronology covers the interval AD 1403 to 1982; the common interval AD 1772to 1982.
Program
Options
used
Chronology
Mean sensitivity
Standard deviation
Autocorr. order 1
Common interval
Mean correlations:
All radii pairs
Only between trees
Only within trees
1
INDEX /SUMAC
2
ARSTAN
3
ARSTAN
4
ARSTAN
5
ARSTAN
6
ARSTAN
Expo curve
Expo curve Expo curve Expo curve Expo curve
Double
*Biweight
Linear
Linear
detrending
mean
detrending detrending
Linear
Biweight
detrending
mean
.289
.305
.273
.396
.378
.707
.289
.305
.273
.407
.383
.732
.288
.299
.255
.407
.383
.732
.289
.308
.275
.410
.386
.734
.290
.302
.257
.410
.386
.734
.289
.304
.268
.430
.407
.750
7
ARSTAN
8
ARSTAN
Double
Double
detrending
detrending
Linear
Linear
detrending
detrending
Biweight
Biweight
mean
mean
AR- modeling
(full ARSTAN
process)
.290
.300
.251
.431
.407
.749
.294
.293
.175
.520
.498
.807
* Note:
Inter -series correlations are the same for the program runs in columns 1 and 2.
Mean correlations in SUMAC are arithmetic means; in ARSTAN they are computed
using a Fisher Z- transform appropriate for deriving the mean of bounded values
such as correlations.
increases from 37.8% of the variance for INDEX /SUMAC to49.8% for 8, the full ARSTAN analysis. A 2% rise in signalcan be attributed to the double detrending and a 9% rise insignal can be attributed to autoregressive modeling.
The data in tables 7 and 8 document the statistics ofchronologies treated with the curve fitting of INDEX orARSTAN and then combined using the arithmetic and biweightmeans along with the autoregressive modeling of ARSTAN. Themean sensitivity, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis andautocorrelation show only small differences. The error wasgenerally but not always lower in the Residual version. Forexample, the ratio of error variances of the Residual/Standard for all but the INDEX analysis in Table 8 weresmaller than one.
The mean correlations are higher for the ARSTAN thanthe INDEX computations. The between -tree correlationsreflect the common signal which is often two to threepercentage points higher for the ARSTAN than for the INDEXanalysis. The percent variance explained by the firsteigenvector is generally higher for the ARSTAN chronology.
Figure 5 shows four power spectra for two differentsite chronologies. The chronologies for 2A and 2C weretreated like program INDEX /SUMAC and those for 2B and 2Dwere treated with all of the ARSTAN options. The spectrabetween sites are markedly different but there are fewdifferences between the two standardization treatments. in
the juniper chronology, the peak frequency at 3/100 issomewhat smaller for the ARSTAN version.
It was concluded from these data that the ARSTANprogram was as good as if not superior to the INDEX /SUMACversion. The Standard version is similar to the INDEX /SUMACversion. However, the ARSTAN program has the addedadvantage of producing a Residual version of the chronologyas well as the ARSTAN version, which adds the meanautoregressive structure back into the residual chronology.Therefore, the ARSTAN program was used to produce all of theproject chronologies.
25
Table 7: Chronology statistics after curve fitting with INDEX orARSTAN, using ARSTAN to compute arithmetic or biweight robustmeans, and then processing the chronology using the autoregressivemodeling of ARSTAN. Data are
Calamity Creek, Oregon. Theto 1982 with 29 trees and 49
AD 1774 to 1981 with 27 trees
for Juniperus occidentalis fromchronology covers the interval AD 1396radii, and the common interval covers
Signal -to -noise ratio 18.9 20.7% variance eigenv 1 43.1 45.3
ResidualMean correlationAll radii pairs .526 .533
Only between trees (Y) .519 .526
Only within trees .784 .792Signal -to -noise ratio 29.1 30.0
% variance eigenv 1 53.3 54.1
* Note: Common interval analysis is identical forarithmetic and biwight robust means.
26
Table 8: Chronology statistics after curve fitting with INDEX orARSTAN, using ARSTAN to compute arithmetic or biweight robustmeans, and then processing the chronology using the autoregressivemodeling of ARSTAN. Data
Lake, California. The chronology1980 with 28 trees and 581727 to 1980 with 24 trees
are for Pinus jeffreyi from AntelopeAD 1473 to
covers AD
Double Detrended
covers the intervalradii, and the common intervaland 39 radii.
Only between trees (Y) .306 .343Only within trees .617 .607
Signal -to -noise ratio 10.6 12.5
% variance eigenv 1 33.2 36.8
ResidualMean correlation
All radii pairs .302 .310
Only between trees (Y) .297 .305
Only within trees .506 .508
Signal -to -noise ratio 10.1 10.5
% variance eigenv 1 32.1 32.9
* Note: Common interval analysis is identical forarithmetic and biweight robust means.
27
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.3
0.5
0.0
00
n.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0. 0
0.25
00
3.5-
3.3-
"2.5
2.0=
1.5
0.40
0.45
0. 0
^.ÒO
9
1,1,
,,,1,
,.,,,,,
0OS
0.10
0.15
0.0
0.25
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
1.0-
0.0
a 0.00
1,,1
,,1
,,,,1
i, ,,,
,11
,,,, 1
1,
,,,,,,1,
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.0
0.35
0.40
0.45
FREQUENCY CYCLE/YERR
00.50
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0. 0
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
FREQUENCY CYCLE/YERR
Figure 5.
Power spectra showing the distribution of variance by frequency for two sites, with chronologies A and
C produced by the INDEX /SUMAC method and B and D by the ARSTAN method.
All spectra were produced with 100 lags.
Spectra A and B are for Calamity Creek, Oregon, for the interval AD 1493 to 1982; C and Dare for Antelope Lake,
California, AD 1511 to 1980.
DETAILS OF DOCUMENTATION
The relevant details of procedures used in this projectare described in these pages. A brief discussion of samplelabeling, dating notation and identification codes forlabeling tree -ring data sets follow the guidelines of theLaboratory of Tree -Ring Research. The site information,sample mounting and specimen preparation sections generallyare methods unique to this project.
SITE INFORMATION
A permanent record containing all informationpertaining to the tree -ring collections is kept in threemanila folders labeled by site name for each site.
The first folder, labeled "Site collection," containsthe field notes made during sample collection, and a large -scale map showing the location of site collections.
The second folder, labeled "Dating and measurement,"contains notes on crossdating the specimens, skeleton plots(if any) and any additional notes on the samples themselves.Printout from computer program COFECHA is included in thisfolder.
The third folder, labeled "Chronology and analysis,"holds information on the assembly of chronologies for thesite, and analyses performed on the chronologies. Printoutsuch as that from computer program ARSTAN is included inthis folder.
SAMPLE LABELING AND DATING NOTATION
Mounted cores are labeled with a six or eight- charactercode for site, tree number and radius; the date (month andyear) of collection; and species code. Conventionally coresare labeled with the bark to the right. Labels are writtenon the corner of the core mount to allow a maximum of clearspace adjacent to the core for notations to be made laterpertaining to the dating and measurement of the core.
When working with the specimens, it is important todistinguish between cores or portions of cores that havebeen dated with a high degree of confidence and those thatare only tentatively dated or merely sequenced (counted).Pencil marks only are used for tentative dating orsequencing, and the note "tent dtd..." followed by theinterval so dated, initials and date. If dating is of highconfidence, the dating marks are pinpricked, preferablyalong one edge of the core, and annotated "dtd..." followedby the dated interval, initials and date. The symbol "0" isused to denote a pith date. For example, the note
29
DTD 0 1323-1984 RKA 10/85
would be read, "Dated from pith at year 1323 through 1984 byRKA in October 1985."
Details are recorded on the core mount, written smalland as close as possible to the pertinent ring, such asfrost -damaged rings, reaction wood, injuries and informationuseful for documenting decisions on dating or forcommunicating this information to the person who willmeasure the core (Figure 6). Among the symbols used are:
(ab)
(w)
(m)
(f)
locally absent ringwedge ringmicroringfaint ring
As with the dating, the dates of the interval measured,initials of the measurer and date of measurement were notedon the mount. Often a few rings near the pith were excludedfrom measurement because of the uncertain climatic responseof a very small tree. If a core was taken during thegrowing season of the tree, the outside ring, which wouldnot be complete, was not measured.
IDENTIFICATION CODES FOR TREE -RING SERIES
Ring measurement series
In April 1984 the series identification code at theLaboratory of Tree -Ring Research was expanded from six toeight alphanumeric characters to accommodate the greatervariety of data now being generated. It includes from leftto right:
Characters 1 to 3 Three -letter site abbreviation4 to 5 Two -digit tree number
6 One -letter designation of the treeradius
7 to 8 Two -letter data -type code(two blanks here indicate ringwidth.)
The identification is entered in the site collectionnotes, written on the core sample mount or on the bulksample, entered on the computerized measurement file andsubsequently appears on any computer -generated printoutwhich makes use of the data series.
Index series
Standardization of a series of ring measurements alongone core produces a ring index series (Appendix 2) which is
30
One ring
Earlywood Latewood
Decade
1810
Double Microring ring(d) (m)
Absent
ring(ab)
Decade(10 rings)
1a
1950 1960 1970 1980
Bark toward the right -1
Half- century
Wedge Faintring ring(w) (f)
(ab)
then(m)*
Century
1900
m)
then(ab)*
1850J 11,1
Measureas zero
Annotate this example as:1854d, 62m, 73m, 76ab, 89w, 98f1907ab, 08m, 24m, 25ab
WAINMeasure perpendicular tothe latewood boundary
1900
* Consult dating notes
Place dating marks along edges of core,leaving center clear for better visibilityand for x -ray densitometric processing.v
Crack measure wood onlynot the space
Figure 6. Dating and measurement conventions.
31
identified by the first six characters of the identificationcode. Special conventions are followed in assigning codesto summaries of two or more index series. A zero in theradius designation (sixth character) indicates that thisindex series is a summary of several radii within one tree,or a special summary for statistical analysis. A nine inthe sixth character indicates a site chronology.
Chronology series
A chronology for a site is developed by combiningindexed series from many cores sampled from different treesgrowing on the site. This chronology is identified by athree- letter site abbreviation, an assigned two -characterspecies code and a number indicating the type of chronology(9 for a climatic chronology, 0 for a statisticalchronology, for example) .
A four -letter code is also used which more or lessmatches the first two letters of the genus and species name,except when two genera or species begin with the sameletters. When this occurs one is changed to avoidconfusion. For example for the genus Picea, "PC" is usedrather than "PI" to avoid confusion with the genus Pinus,and for Pinus monticola, "PIMT" is used rather than "PIMO"to avoid confusion with Pinus monophylla.
Summary of identification codes
The 8 digit code used to identify tree -ring series oncomputer inputs and outputs is indicated as A for alphanumeric, # for numeric and 0 for a zero value.
AAA # #0
AAA002
Site codeTree numberRadius number when more than one radius
per tree is sampledType of data (Two blanks here indicate
ring widthSummary of ring -width data for all cores
from tree ## on site AAASummary of all core class 2s from site AAA
DETAILS OF SAMPLE MOUNTING AND PREPARATION
Preparation of increment core samples is an exactingtask that must be done carefully to provide the bestpossible surface for ring measurement. A method of coremounting was developed on this project that facilitates bothoptical measurements and X -ray densitometry measurementwithout remounting. The steps required for preparation aredescribed here.
32
Groove - 4.5 as wide
- 2.5 as deep
core to press -fit
5 sa
14_- 20 or 25 as -pi
Site, tree, core and
species identification
Figure 7.
Increment core mount for optical and x -ray densitometric processing.
MANUFACTURING CORE MOUNTS
Poplar wood was selected for core mounts because it iseconomical, widely available, clear -grained and the mostmachinable wood in common use. Boards were prefinished to astandard core mount width depending on requirements for X-ray densitometry. At first a width of 25 mm was used toaccommodate a router- planer with a one -inch feed opening.Due to recent changes in technology of x -ray densitometry,core mounts are now manufactured with a 20 mm width.
Boards were then cut into lath that were 20 or 25 mmwide and about 5 mm thick, somewhat thicker than the corediameter which generally is 4.3 to 4.5 mm. The laths werecut into lengths to accommodate the cores, with 40 mm extraon each end.
A groove was cut with a router bit along the center ofone face of the lath. The groove was made just wide enoughfor the cores to fit with gentle pressure by using a 3/16inch (4.76 mm) router bit. Depth of the groove was justover half the core diameter. The groove did not extend tothe ends of the mount, but stopped about 30 to 40 mm fromeach end (Figure 7).
MOUNTING CORES
A mount was selected with a groove of adequate lengthto accept the core, and the core identification was recordednear one end of the mount. Some cores were twisted at thetime of collection by the action of the increment borerentering the tree. These cores were straightened by gentlytwisting them in the opposite direction while exposed to ajet of steam until the wood grain was parallel throughoutits length. Removal of the core from the steam whileholding the proper orientation allowed the wood to hardenwithout distortion while cooling. A steaming teakettle orEhrlenmeyer flask with stopper and bent tube was used forthis process.
The groove in the mount was filled with polyvinylacetate emulsion glue ( "white glue "), and the core waspressed in with the grain of the core precisely vertical sothat the final polished surface would be a cross -section.Excess glue was wiped off with a damp cloth or sponge. Theglue will not influence wood density measurements since itwill be completely cut off from above and below the coreduring preparation for x -ray densitometry.
Mounted cores were clamped immediately while the gluehardened. A padded table as shown in Figure 8, allowedseveral mounts to be clamped at once. Additional weights wereplaced on top to make the clamping firmer. After a few hours theglue was hard and the mounted cores were removed to air -dry,making room for more freshly mounted cores.
34
Handle
Covered with polyethylenesheeting not shown)
--- Desk top
Firs foam pads,12 mm (1/2 in)
/-----Nounted coresTable
Tape Desk top
1
Front
Firm foam pad Polyethylene sheeting
Mounted core
Not hinged orconnected
View from front,press closed
Figure 8. Table press for clamping mounted cores while gluehardens.
35
SURFACE PREPARATION FOR OPTICAL MEASUREMENT
After the glue hardened, cores were surfaced lightly,one at a time, by using a board and wedge inserted into asanding belt. A few strokes with a medium coarse belt(about 220 grit) produced a flat surface, which was thenpolished with a fine grit belt (about 320 to 400). Finalpolishing was accomplished by hand with a small piece (about80 by 100 mm) of fine (360 to 500 grit) sandpaper backed bya 25 mm by 50 mm by 8 mm rubber eraser. Tan coloredaluminum oxide sandpaper was strongly preferred overblack silicon carbide, because the latter may leave blackspecks which severely interfere with the visibility ofdifficult ring series. Sanding down to a level flush withthe core mount makes polishing difficult, and glue maybecome smeared across the surface obscuring the cellstructure. Sanding should stop about 1 mm above the surfaceof the mount.
A clean polished surface can be obtained permitting aclear view of the cell structure of each ring. Preliminarydating marks were made lightly in pencil along one edge ofthe core. After the dating was verified, permanent markswere made along the edge with a sharp pencil or dissectingneedle.
SOURCES OF DATA AND COMPUTER PROGRAMS
All tree -ring chronologies listed in Appendix 3 as wellas the basic ring -width measurements have been contributedto and are available through the International Tree -RingData Bank (ITRDB), Laboratory of Tree -Ring Research,University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721, U.S.A.Computer programs COFECHA (Appendix 1) and ARSTAN (Appendix2), and a variety of other programs for tree -ring dataanalysis, are available from the Data Processing Section ofthe Laboratory of Tree Ring Research.
36
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Many people and institutions have assisted this projectin a variety of ways. Maurice Roos, Chief of the FloodHydrology Division, California Department of WaterResources, Sacramento, and William Mancebo, Fresno office ofthe Department of Water Resources, provided personnel and avehicle for some of the field work. Stein Buer, Larry Bakerand Kenneth Lloyd of the same department provided valuablefield assistance. Lester O. White of the Mendocino NationalForest (retired) provided dated ring -width measurements fora sugar pine site and also assisted in the collection in theMendocino National Forest. Robert W. Tosh of the Universityof LaVerne, Mentone, California, donated samples from highaltitude limber pine in the San Gorgonio Peaks of California.
Others who gave assistance in field work includeWallace Woolfenden of the Stanislaus National Forest, ThomasStohlgren and Thomas Warner of Sequoia -Kings Canyon NationalPark, Jason M. Greenlee of Santa Cruz, California and GlenSecrist of the Boise (Idaho) District, Bureau of LandManagement. Without exception the superintendents, rangersand other personnel of the U. S. Forest Service, ParkService and Bureau of Land Management were very helpful andprovided valuable information on location and access tostands of trees of potential interest.
Wu Xiangding, visiting scholar from Beijing, PeoplesRepublic of China, joined us for a full month of field work.Martin R. Rose, Christopher J. Earle, Thomas P. Harlan andAlexander S. McCord, personnel of the Laboratory of Tree -Ring Research, also participated in the collection work.Thanks are given to Jacqueline Mather and Barbara Malloy fortranscription and review of the text.
This material is based upon work supported by theNational Science Foundation under grants ATM- 8026732 andATM-8303192. Any opinions, findings and conclusions orrecommendations expressed in this publication are those ofthe authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of theNational Science Foundation.
37
LITERATURE CITED
Antevs, Ernst
1938 Rainfall and tree growth in the Great Basin.American Geographical Soc éty of New York, 97 pp.
Biasing, T. J., D. N. Duvick and E. R. Cook.
1983. Filtering the effects of competition from ring -with series. Tree -Ring Bulletin 43:19 -30.
Cleaveland, Malcolm K.
1983 X -ray densitometric measurement of climaticinfluence on the intra- annual characteristics ofsouthwestern semiarid conifer tree rings. Ph.D.Dissertation, Department of Geosciences, Univer-sity of Arizona, Tucson, 177 pp.
Conkey, Laura E.
1982 Eastern U.S. tree -ring widths and densities asindicators of past climate. Ph.D. Dissertation,Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona,Tucson, 204 pp.
Cook, Edward R.
1985 A time - series analysis approach to tree -ringstandardization. Ph.D. Dissertation, Departmentof Geosciences, University of Arizona,Tucson.
Cook, Edward R. and Kenneth Peters
1981 The smoothing spline: a new approach to standard-izing forest interior tree -ring width series fordendroclimatic studies. Tree -Ring Bulletin 41:45 -53.
Earle, Christopher J. and Harold C. Fritts
1986 Reconstructing riverflow in the Sacramento Basinsince 1560. Final Report to the CaliforniaDepartment of Water Resources, Agreement No.DWRB- 55395, 122 pp.
Fritts, Harold C.
1963 Computer programs for tree -ring research. Tree -
Ring Bulletin 25(3- 4):2 -7.
38
Fritts, Harold C.
1976 Tree rings and climate. Academic Press, London,567 pp.
Fritts, Harold C., T. J. Blasing, B. P. Hayden and J. E.Kutzbach
1971. Multivariate techniques for specifying tree -growthand climate relationships and for reconstructinganomalies in paleoclimate. Journal of AppliedMeteorology 10(5):845 -64.
Fritts, Harold C., G. R. Lofgren and G. A. Gordon
1979 Reconstructing seasonal to centenary variations inclimate from tree -ring evidence. In InternationalConference on Climate and History, 8 -14 July, 1979,Review Papers, p 29 -58. Climatic Research Unit,University of East Anglia, Norwich, U. K.
Graybill, Donald A.
1982 Chronology development and analysis. In Climatefrom Tree Rings, M. K. Hughes, P. M. Kelly, J. R.P- filcher and V. C. LaMarche, Jr., eds., p 21 -30.Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Hecht, A. D., ed.
1985. Paleoclimate Analysis and Modelling, John Wileyand Sons, New York.
Holmes, Richard L.
1983 Computer- assisted quality control in tree -ringdating and measurement. Tree -Ring Bulletin 43:69 -78.
Hughes, M. K., P. M. Kelly, J. R. Pilcher and V. C.LaMarche, Jr.
1980 Report and recommendations of the Second Inter-national Workshop on Global Dendrocl mátology. TheOrganising Committee of the Second InternationalWorkshop on Global Dendroclimatology, Belfast.
Keen, F. P.
1937 Climatic cycles in eastern Oregon as indicated bytree rings. Monthly Weather Review 65(5):175 -188.
39
Parker, M. L.
1967 Dendrochronology of Point of Pines. MastersThesis, Department of Anthropology, University ofArizona, Tucson, p 91 -100.
Parker, M. L.
1971 Dendrochronological techniques used by the Geo-logical Survey of Canada. Geological Survey ofCanada Paper 71 -25, p 26, Department of Energy,Mines and Resources, Ottawa.
Robinson, William J. and R. Evans
1980 A Microcomputer -Based Tree -Ring Measuring System.Tree -Ring Bulletin 40:59 -63.
Stockton, C. W. and D. M. Meko
1983 Drought recurrence in the Great Plains as recon-structed from long -term tree -ring records.Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 22:17 -29.
Stokes, Marvin A. and Terah L. Smiley
1968 An introduction to tree -ring dating. The Univer-sity of Chicago Press, Chicago, 73 pp.
Wigley, T.M.L., K. R. Briffa and P. D. Jones
1984 On the average value of correlated times series,with applications in dendroclimatology and hydro -meteorology. Journal of Climate and AppliedMeteorology 23(2):201 -13.
40
APPENDIX 1
QUALITY CONTROL OF CROSSDATING AND MEASURING
A USERS MANUAL FOR PROGRAM COFECHA
Richard L. HolmesLaboratory of Tree -Ring Research
University of ArizonaTucson, Arizona 85721
Introduction
Program COFECHA is a computer routine written in ANSIStandard Fortran -77. The main purpose of Program COFECHA isthe identification of tree -ring data that may have possibledating errors (Holmes 1983).
Before the program can identify these errors, it musttransform the tree -ring series in the following ways.First, the dated and measured ring series are filtered byfitting a 20 -year cubic spline (Cook and Peters 1981), andthen dividing the series values by the corresponding splinecurve values to remove low- frequency variance. Second, thehigh- frequency residual is subjected to a log transformationto equalize proportionally the variability among small andlarge rings. Third, a master dating series is derived bycalculating the mean value function of all filtered andtransformed series.
Individual filtered and transformed series are thentested against the master dating series. The master seriesis adjusted each time by temporarily removing the componentcontributed by the series under consideration. Correlationsare then computed between short segments of the series (50years is the default value) and corresponding segments ofthe adjusted master series. For each segment, the programchecks that the correlation is positive and highlysignificant, and also that it is higher when matched asdated than when shifted forward or backward from that point.Single measurements are noted that have zero values (locallyabsent rings) or which are statistical outliers afterfiltering and transformation.
The correlation among correctly crossdated seriesvaries with the species of trees from which they werederived, geographic area, type of site, amount of standcompetition and degree of disturbance to the site. Throughtime, a given tree may suffer differing amounts of stressfrom competition for light and moisture with other trees,competition for moisture with ground cover, root access tosoil moisture, and from disturbance such as fire and insectattack (Fritts 1976, pp. 107 -113, 213 -223, 300 -311). Forthese reasons, Program COFECHA does not provide precise
41
accept /reject criteria for making objective decisions as towhether a series has been crossdated correctly throughout.Because the appearance of tree -rings contains manyclues to crossdating in addition to ring width, the programshould not be used as a substitute for visual crossdating onthe wood sample. Rather it is intended to aid data qualitycontrol by conducting a thorough examination of all seriesfrom the first to the last value (excepting the end of thatseries which extends beyond all others), giving thedendrochronologist an independent tool to confirm theaccuracy of dating and measurement. It may be used toaccept or reject series or portions of series for inclusionin a site chronology.
Program COFECHA has proven economical and very easy torun, has saved a great deal of personnel time and provides amore reliable quality control check than was previouslyfeasible. Program COFECHA has been implemented at severalinstitutions in addition to the Laboratory of Tree -RingResearch at the University of Arizona. It has been found tobe valuable in working with Cedrela and Juglans, tropicalhardwood genera from northwestern Argentiná Fitzroya andNothofagus (Southern Hemisphere beech) from subantarcticforests in Patagonia; and Taxodium (cypress) fromsoutheastern United States, as well as the species andregion of chronology development of this project. Tests ontree -ring data from arid sites in the southwestern UnitedStates have also yielded excellent results. The programwill likely be useful in other locales such as uppertreeline sites, high latitudes and moist forests. It may beespecially helpful to an investigator working alone or in asmall group, or with unfamiliar species.
Running Program COFECHA
The program reads tree -ring measurement data from twofiles, designated ' TAPE1' and ' TAPE2', written in standardtree -ring measurement (or optionally, index) format.
TAPE 1 contains the dated measurements from a site.These series are used to form the master series againstwhich each individual series is compared. Most of theseries in this file should be correctly dated so that themaster series computed by Program COFECHA will reflectrelatively accurate crossdating. TAPE 2 contains ring -measurement series that are undated (counted), or whosedating is unknown or doubtful. These will not be used tocompute the master series, but will be compared with it tosee where they match best. If there are no problematicalseries, this file is omitted.
On the University of Arizona CYBER 175, the main program andall required subroutines are contained in program library RLHLIB,ID = RLH. On tapes provided for users at other institutions, the
42
main program and all subroutines are written on a single file.Following is a sample of job control lines for running
Program COFECHA on the University of Arizona CYBER 175computer.
(End of record mark)(Optional; must bepresent if defaultvalues are to bechanged)
To override any of the following default values, thekeyword is written starting in column 1 and is followed byan equals sign (=) or by one or more spaces. They mayappear in any order. None of these input lines are requiredby the program.
Keyword Default Parameter
SPLINE 20SEGMENT 50LAG 25ACCEPT .3281
TRANSFORM 1
PLOTALL 0
INDEX1
INDEX2
(Stiffness of the spline filter)(Length of segments tested)(Lag between successive segments)(Correlation confidence level for flag-ging segments)
(Apply a log -transform to filteredseries:Yes = 1, No = -1)
(Make bar plot for all series: No = 0,Yes = 1)
(If this line is omitted, TAPE1 ismeasurement format; if present, TAPE1is index format.)
(If this line is omitted, TAPE2 ismeasurement format; if present, TAPE2is index format.)
Files produced by Program COFECHA
OUTPUT: All results are written on this file forprinting.
MASTER: This file contains the normalized masterdating series in Tree -Ring Laboratory index format. Savethis file if desired for plotting or other use.
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Data formats
Subroutine TRIR is used to read or write in index ormeasurement format, and may be used to put any data fileinto standard format. This subroutine has additional entrypoints TRMR, TRIW and TRMW, meaning Tree -RingIndices /Measurements Read /Write.
A8: Series identification, up to 8 characters alphanumeric.
I4: Date of first measurement in decade. First line maystart in any year and finishes the decade out to theyear ending in 9. Subsequent lines begin on decadeyears ending in 0.
10 F6.2 Ring measurements. First line for a series maycontain less than ten values, in which case they arein the leftmost fields. Subsequent lines contain tenvalues. Last line has a flag value of 999 in the fieldfollowing the last measurement value. If the last valueis for a year ending in 9, an additional line is neededto contain a 999 in the first field.
Ring measurement format permits six significant digits,or five if there may be negative values (space is needed fora minus sign).
Ring index format (Also called Chronology format)
Read: (A 6, I 4,10 (F 4.3, 13) )
Write: (A6,I4,10(I4,13)) Uses 80 columns
A6: Series identification, up to 6 characters alphanumeric.
I4: Date of first index value in decade.
10(F4.3,13): Indices and number of samples. First line foran index series may contain less than ten values, inwhich case the first (left -most) fields are filled with'9990' for the index and ' 0' for the number of samples.Subsequent lines contain ten pairs of values. Unusedfields in the last line of a series are also filled with'9990' and ' 0'. If the last value is for a year endingin 9, an additional line of '9990' and ' 0' is needed.If the number of samples is recorded as zero throughoutthe series, it is assumed to be an index series for asingle radius with sample size throughout of one.
Index format permits four significant digits, 'or three
44
if there may be negative values (space is needed for a minussign) .
Description of output from Program COFECHA
Printed output of Program COFECHA appears in sevenparts.
PART 1. The dated and measured ring series arefiltered to remove the low- frequency variance. Unless theuser specifies otherwise, a log- transform will be performedon the filtered series, in order to weigh proportionaldifferences in ring measurement more equally. A smallconstant is added before transformation to avoid thepossibility of taking the logarithm of zero in case of alocally absent ring. Filtering and transformation, byremoving low- frequency variance and using only the high -frequency variance, simulates the dendrochronologist'sperception on visual examination of a ring series forcrossdating.
Experience with data sets from California suggests thatthe optimum job of discovering errors without also pointingout a considerable number of places where no problem exists,was done by using a spline length of 20 years. A stifferspline leaves too much long -term variance in the series, andthe resulting filtered series is not responsive enough tothe dating, while a more flexible spline is too responsive,and is likely to cause many correctly dated segments of aseries to be flagged for reexamination. A master datingseries is computed as the mean of all the series, derived inthe same way a conventional chronology is calculated fromindex series of individual radii (Graybill 1982). In Part 1the master series in standardized form (mean = 0, standarddeviation = 1) is listed vertically for easy reference,along with the number of individual series that are averagedto obtain the value for each year. Following this is a barplot of the master series, which is a visual aid to acrossdating check. The coefficients of variation (100 timesthe standard deviation divided by the mean) are printed in athird list. When only one series enters the master series(N =1), the coefficient of variation cannot be calculated.
Each series is temporarily removed from the masterdating series to avoid comparing the series against itself.The series is then tested segment by segment against theadjusted master series for crossdating and general measuringaccuracy, by calculating correlations for each 50 -yearsegment of the series under examination with the masterseries matched at the point of crossdating, and also at eachposition from 10 years earlier ( -10) to 10 years later ( +10)
than dated. Experience indicates that ten years on eitherside is adequate to locate most crossdating errors, andshould also catch errors made by slipping a decade while
45
measuring. Spanning more years would unnecessarily inflatethe time required for computing. Successive segments testedare lagged 25 years, giving a 50% overlap. In order to testto the ends of the series, the first segment begins with thefirst year of the series and the last ends with the lastyear. Intermediate segments begin on years evenly divisibleby the lag, 25. The overlap of the first two and last twosegments is therefore usually greater than 25 years.
A segment length of 50 years provides sufficientdegrees of freedom so that there are few segments with highor low correlation occurring by chance, and the correlationat 99% significance is not so high that a great manysegments are flagged. Yet 50 years is short enough to allowdetection of dating errors of a few years in length, andthus allow the dendrochronologist to narrow the search fordating problems.
If in any time interval a major proportion of theseries that make up the master series are incorrectly dated,the master series itself may not contain the correct dating,and most or all of the series will show low correlation forthe time interval. Test runs of the program show that ifthere are several samples, more than half may be erroneouslydated in a given time interval, and the program will stillcorrectly identify the series containing the error while notflagging the remainder. The inclusion of some erroneousseries in the master series, though not to be preferred,does not destroy the correct dating pattern.
PART 2. Correlations of each segment of the series,matched with the master, are printed in a table.Correlation values less than 0.3281, representing the 99%confidence level of significance in a one -tail test of thedistribution of the correlation coefficient with 48 degreesof freedom (N =50), are underlined and flagged. At the rightmargin the number of flagged correlations and the totalnumber of segments for the series appear.
PART 3. A line is printed for any segment whichcorrelates higher at some position other than where it wascrossdated, or which correlates below the 99% confidencelevel. This line shows the correlation of the segment ateach position from -10 to +10. The value as dated (position+0) is underlined, and the highest value between positions -10 and +10 is underlined and bracketed. The highestcorrelating position is also printed in the column labeled"HIGH." For clarity, a horizontal line separates series,and an open dashed line denotes non -consecutive segments.Nothing is printed in Part 3 if the segment does not "fail"according to the criteria described above. If no suchsegments are found in the entire data file, only a messageto this effect is printed at the end of Part 2.
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PART 4. A table is printed of descriptive statisticsof the ring measurement series processed. It includes thetotal number of segments in each series, how many segmentswere found to have a low correlation with the master datingseries (flagged "A "), and how many matched better at otherthan the dated position (flagged "B "). The mean correlationof the series is given, along with standard time seriesstatistics of the measurements before and after filteringwith the spline.
PART 5. A list is made of those measurement valuesthat are zero (locally absent ring), or are statisticaloutliers after filtering and transforming, defined for thispurpose as being over +3.0 or -5.0 standard deviations fromthe master dating series value for that year. Theseindividual rings are identified as possible sources ofdating or measurement error, although in many cases they arecorrect.
PART 6. For each series, year -to -year differences inring measurement which differ by 4.0 standard deviations ormore from the mean of the same year -to -year differences ofthe other series are printed.
PART 7. This part appears only if there are ringmeasurement series in the optional second data file (TAPE2),or if any series in the TAPE1 file begins earlier than theyear 200 AD. The purpose of this part of the program is tofind the most probable dating of unknown series which appearto be of good quality, yet cannot be confidently dated byskeleton plot or other commonly used techniques. Seriesincluded here may be those of uncertain dating or thosesimply counted and measured. This part is nearly identicalin concept to Parker's (1967 and 1971) Shifting Unit DatingProgram.
This part indicates the most probable crossdating forthese series. As with the series in the main data file,correlations are calculated for 50 -year segments of thecounted series lagged successively 25 years, but now atevery position from beginning to end of the master series.For each segment the eleven highest correlation values areprinted (the eleven best matches), beginning with thehighest correlation ( "CORR #1 "), along with the number ofyears to add to the counted series to obtain the indicatedmatch. If the same number appears consistently in one ofthe "ADD" columns of the #1, #2 or #3 correlation, there isa high probability that the series may be dated correctly byadding this number to the count of each ring. The datingshould of course be verified on the wood sample by thedendrochronologist, since in addition to ring width, ringappearance contains clues to crossdating.
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Interpretation of program output
The recommended use of Program COFECHA for data qualitycontrol is to examine parts 2 through 6 of the output toconfirm correct crossdating and subsequently to select thoseportions of series in which the dating and measurementshould be rechecked. Once remeasurement of portions of aseries has been done, another computer program, SESQUI, maybe used to assess the precision of the measurements usingthe method described by Fritts (1976 pp. 250 -252) .
If a segment of a series is listed in Part 3 of theprogram output, one of three things may be indicated:
(1) The crossdating may be erroneous. Crossdatingerrors are usually indicated in Part 3 by the occurrence ofa low correlation at the dated position (zero) and a muchhigher correlation at some position nearby the datedposition, say at +1 or -1, +2 or -2. If the misdatingcontinues for more than a few rings, two or more successivesegments may correlate higher at the same nonzero position.A value of +2, for example, suggests that two rings may nothave been recorded (locally absent ?) near the beginning ofthe segment, and /or two extra rings (double ?) recorded nearthe end. Picking out crossdating errors is done veryreliably by Program COFECHA. Dating errors should beconfirmed by examining the rings, corrected, and ProgramCOFECHA rerun to confirm the change and to documentcrossdating quality of the site collection.
(2) There may be a single or a few large errors inmeasuring. Most measurement errors will have the effect oflowering the correlations of the segments in which theyoccur. Segments correlating lower than the 99% confidencelevel are flagged in Part 2 and listed in Part 3. Thesesegments are good candidates for remeasurement to check forerrors in the original measurements. If the highestcorrelation shown in Part 3 is at position +10 or -10, theperson doing the measuring may have "skipped" a decade orrepeated it, although this type of error is far less likelyto occur with the use of modern automated methods of datacapture (Robinson and Evans 1980). A check of the outputfrom Part 5 will reveal statistical outliers, which may alsobe measurement errors. This part also lists dates oflocally absent rings (zero values), which should beindependently confirmed, since they are determined from thepatterns in ring features by the dendrochronologist'sjudgement.
(3) There may have been a disturbance to the growth ofthe tree. A fire, sudden removal of competition, severeinsect infestation or other environmental changes abruptlyaffecting the tree in question differently from others inthe stand, may cause ring growth to be anomalous for one ora few years, and thus produce low correlation in one or two
48
segments. This phenomenon was noted by L. O. White(personal communication), who observed in his sitecollection of Pinus lambertiana from the Mendocino NationalForest, California, that evidence of fire often occurredwithin segments of somewhat low correlation as listed byProgram COFECHA, segments which were nevertheless correctlydated.
After corrections are made, Program COFECHA should berun on the corrected measurements to provide finaldocumentation confirming the correct crossdating of the sitecollection.
Conclusions
Program COFECHA provides an efficient method of tree -ring data quality control by thoroughly checking thecrossdating of tree -ring site collections as a whole, andlocating possible errors in dating or large measurementerrors. It also serves as documentation of the crossdatingquality of dendrochronological data sets.
The Literature Cited section preceding Appendix 1contains the references for this appendix.
Acknowledgements for the development of Program COFECHA
The development of Program COFECHA was carried out atthe Laboratory of Tree -Ring Research, University of Arizona,Tucson with support of the U. S. National Science FoundationGrants ATM -8026732 and ATM -8303192, H. C. Fritts, principalinvestigator. Thanks are given for suggestions, discussionand review of the text to Harold C. Fritts, John P. Cropper,Janice M. Lough, Rex K. Adams, Valmore C. LaMarche, Jr. andMargaret Harrington of the Laboratory of Tree -Ring Research;Josh A. Boninsegna and Ricardo Villalba of the InstitutoArgentino de Nivologia y Glaciologia, Mendoza, Argentina;Malcolm K. Cleaveland, formerly of the U. S. GeologicalSurvey, now at the University of Arkansas, Fayetteville; andMichael J. Duever of the National Audubon Society.
49
APPENDIX 2
USERS MANUAL FOR PROGRAM ARSTAN
by EDWARD R. COOKLamont -Doherty Geological Observatory
of Columbia UniversityPalisades, New York 10964
and RICHARD L. HOLMESLaboratory of Tree -Ring ResearchUniversity of ArizonaTucson, Arizona 85721
Introduction
Computer program ARSTAN embodies several concepts nothitherto applied to tree -ring chronology development. Itwas developed and written by Edward R. Cook at the Tree -RingLaboratory, Lamont -Doherty Geological Observatory,Palisades, New York. The concepts are fully expounded inhis doctoral dissertation, "A Time- Series Analysis Approachto Tree -Ring Standardization" (Cook, 1985).
In October, 1983, Cook provided Program ARSTAN to theLaboratory of Tree -Ring Research, University of Arizonawhere it was adapted to ANSI Standard Fortran 77 by RichardL. Holmes. Several improvements have been incorporatedsince that time.
Program ARSTAN produces chronologies from tree -ringmeasurement series by detrending and indexing these series,then applying a robust estimation of the mean value functionto remove effects of endogenous disturbances.Autoregressive modeling of index series is used to enhancethe common signal. An option allows removing an exogenousdisturbance effect from all series using an interventionanalysis model.
How Program ARSTAN operates
On execution, Program ARSTAN performs the followingtasks:
(1) Files are opened with the following names:DATA existing file; ring measurement seriesINPUT existing file; run control instructionsOUTPUT new file; printed output of program
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The following files are created in Tree -RingMeasurement (M) format or Index (I) format and may be savedfor future use:
CHRONS Chronologies produced by program (I)
STDEV Standard deviations of chronology indices (I)
AMPLIT Principal components amplitudes (M)
DATAIN *Ring measurement series (M)
CURVE1 *First detrending curves (M)
INDEX1 *Series after single detrending (M)
CURVE2 *Second detrending curves (M)
INDEX2 *Series after double detrending (M)
RESIDS *Residuals of series. (M)
* (Saved on request only)
(2) Run control instructions are read from input and theoptions specified by the user are printed.
(3) Ring measurement data series are read. For each series:(a) series are detrended as specified by the user;(b) decade means plots are printed;(c) an exogenous disturbance period is detrended, if
requested;(d) variance of the series is stabilized, if requested;(e) the detrended series is written on a disk file for
saving, if requested.
(4) Ring measurements and/or indices of each series arelisted, if requested.
(5) Statistics of each series are calculated and printed,before and after detrending.
(6) Multivariate autoregressive modeling is performed.This task consumes a large amount of computer time. Intest runs, detrending required about 15% of computingtime, autoregressive modeling 60 %, chronology computa-tion 12 %, and common interval analysis 11 %. Thefollowing are computed in the autoregressive modeling:(a) Lag -product sum matrices(b) Pooled lag -product sums(c) Pooled autocorrelations(d) Yule -Walker estimates of pooled autoregression(e) Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)(f) Autoregression coefficients based on first -minimum
AIC search (unless constrained by user) andselectedautoregressive modeling order
(g) Impulse response function weights of the pooledautoregression process
(h) Box -Pierce two standard error limits of residualautocorrelation function based on the pooledautoregression coefficients.
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(7) Univariate autoregressive modeling is performed, fittingan autoregressive process of the selected order to eachseries, and the following are computed for the residualseries:(a) Statistics for each series(b) Autoregressive coefficients for each series and the
variance explained by autoregression(c) Normalized residuals which are outliers overthree
standard deviations from mean.
(8) Multivariate autoregressive modeling is performed onthe residual series to determine if residual multi-variate lag effects remain. The following are computedas before:(a) Lag -product sum matrices(b) Pooled lag- product sums(c) Pooled autocorrelations(d) Yule -Walker estimates of pooled autoregression(e) Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)(f) Selected autoregression order.
If no significant multivariate persistence remainsafter the univariate fitting, the autoregression orderselected now should be zero.
(9) The 'STNDRD' version of the chronology is computed.Detrended tree -ring index series are combined into amean value function containing the series selected bythe user in the chronology mask. Means for each yearare computed at the user's option as either thebiweight robust estimate or the arithmetic mean (Cook,1985). The biweight mean is an integral part of theARSTAN methodology and is strongly recommended.Printed along with the chronology indices are thesample depth and statistics on the chronology,including the distribution of yearly values,autocorrelation structure and the gain or loss inefficiency of robust estimation of the mean. If noautoregressive modeling is done, this is the onlyversion of the chronology produced.
(10) The residual (not whitened) version, 'RES NW', iscomputed in the same manner as the STNDRD version, thistime using the residual series resulting from step (7)above. The same statistics are also printed for thischronology.
(11) The portion of the residual chronology containing fouror more series is modeled up to the autoregressive orderselected in the first multivariate autoregressivemodeling in step (6f). If the first -minimum AIC searchresults in a selected order greater than zero, theentire residual chronology is whitened using the auto -regressive coefficients from this modeling. Theresulting white noise residual ('RESID') chronology
52
version is printed along with sample depth andstatistics on the chronology including distributionof yearly values and autocorrelation structure.
(12) Using the autoregressive coefficients selected in thefirst multivariate autoregressive modeling in step (6f),the pooled autoregression is added to the residualchronology to produce the 'ARSTAN' chronology. Printedalong with this version of the chronology are thesample depth and statistics on the chronology includingthe first four moments of yearly values and autocorre-lation structure.
(13) A comparison is made between the 'STNDRD' and 'ARSTAN'chronology versions as to their variance and the corre-lation between them for 50 -year intervals with 25 yearoverlaps, and for the entire chronology. The errorvariance is compared for the 'STNDRD' and 'ARSTAN'chronology versions to determine what improvement hasbeen made in the chronology by autoregressive modeling.
(14) If the user provides more input lines with chronologymask, another set of chronology versions is produced asin steps (9) through (13) .
(15) A common interval is required for correlation andrelated computations. This interval is specified bythe user. The common interval is the maximum time spanwhich is completely covered by a maximum number ofradial index series. That is, this interval is theperiod of time for which this product of the length ofthe common time interval times the number of seriescompletely covering this interval is the greatest.This effectively omits from the analysis those spans ofyears for which there is a minimum of comparative data.The resulting interval calculated contains the greatestnumber of tree rings whose radii cover the spancompletely. The detrended series are analyzed for thistime span and the following are computed for thatinterval:
(a) statistics on individual detrended series andon the 'STNDRD' chronology version;
(b) a matrix of correlations for all possible pairsof series and for each series with thechronology;
(c) average correlation with confidence limits forall pairs, those between trees, those withintrees and those between the series and thechronology;
(d) signal -to -noise ratio based on number of trees;(e) estimated agreement of the sample chronology
variance with that of the theoretical popula-tion chronology, and of samples of reducedreplication (Wigley, Briffa and Jones, 1984);
(f) eigenvalues, eigenvectors and amplitudes for
53
the requested number of principal components,along with statistics on the amplitude seriesincluding distribution of yearly values andautocorrelation structure.
(16) A common interval analysis is carried out as in step(15), using the individual residual series and the'RESID' chronology version. The residual series arethe results of autoregressive modeling of the detrendedseries and contain approximately equal amounts ofvariance at all wavelengths; by analogy to light wavefrequencies, these are white noise series, and theanalysis describes the white noise fraction of theunmodeled individual series and chronology.
(17) The residual version (autoregressively modeled) of eachseries and the chronology used in (16) is subtractedfrom its detrended version used in (15) to produceseries containing only the variance that was removed byautoregressive modeling. By analogy to light, this isthe red noise fraction of the unmodeled series andchronology, since more of its variance is at the longerwavelengths than at the shorter ones. A commoninterval analysis is also done on these series.
(18) A one -page resume is produced of the most importantstatistics of the chronologies. The resume is of theproper size for photocopying on 8.5" by 11" paper.
(19) Chronology versions are printed in easy -to -readvertical format.
Comments on running Program ARSTAN
In running Program ARSTAN, one should carefully selectamong the available options and make certain that the jobcontrol lines are written correctly.
Detrending is intended to remove overall trend in tree -ring measurement series, and to remove part of the varianceat extremely low frequencies approaching the total length ofthe series. Information on climatic variance at these verylow frequencies is not contained in the time series in anycase. Detrending causes the time series characteristics ofthe various measurement series to be more similar to eachother, and prepares them for subsequent autoregressivemodeling. If the detrending accomplishes the task ofremoving a large proportion of the non -climatic variability,autoregressive modeling may only marginally improve the timeseries characteristics of the 'STNDRD' chronology versionwhen producing the 'ARSTAN' version.
Fritts (1976, p. 254 -290) discusses at length theconcept and reasons for detrending tree -ring series. In
54
detrending, three curve -fitting techniques are commonlyused.
(1) Negative exponential curve.
A negative exponential curve of the form
Y = A * e ** ( -B * t) + D
is fit to the data set. An iteration procedure is used,which continues until the improvement of the fit is verysmall. If the fitted curve has a negative constant (D) or apositive slope, the fitted curve is rejected and a a linearregression is fit to the data (Fritts et al., 1969). The
coefficients of the equation are applied to the data toestimate the growth curve, and the data are divided by theestimates to obtain the indices that are stationary with amean of 1.00. The negative exponential curve conforms to atheoretical decrease in annual tree growth increments due tothe geometry of an increasing trunk diameter but as shown inAppendix 3, the precision of the fit is better at thebeginning than at the end of the time sequence.
(2) Linear regression line.
The simplest detrending method is to fit a leastsquares regression line through the data. It conforms to notheoretical model of tree growth, and is probably best usedon series that are very short or that have an unusual growthpattern that the negative exponential curve cannotaccommodate.
(3) Cubic smoothing spline.
This method smoothly fits a succession of cubicpolynomial curves to the data in one pass (it is not aniterative process). It follows the path of the data much asa draftsman's flexible ruler would do. Its elegance lies inits predictability and in the certainty of its time seriesbehavior. The amount of variance to be removed at aparticular frequency can be precisely specified; it willremove more variance at lower frequencies, less at higherfrequencies. In other words, its flexibility can be exactlyspecified and is almost infinitely adjustable. In ProgramARSTAN, the 50 percent cutoff wavelength for the spline canbe specified by the user (Cook and Peters 1981).
On plotting tree -ring data and the curves fit to them,we have observed that frequently the curves do not fitideally. An exponential curve often fits very well theearliest third or so of a series where the slope is steeplynegative and the curvature is strong. Toward the middle andlater parts of the series, it may tend to ride along for acouple of centuries almost entirely above or below theactual values of tree growth, yielding long stretches of low
55
or high indices. On the other hand, a very stiff cubicspline (50 percent frequency cutoff at 300 years or more),may follow the data far better than the exponential curvefor the later two- thirds of the series, but it may be toostiff to follow the bend in the steeply downward trendingearly part of the series.
A two -stage process of detrending frequently solvesthis problem by fitting a negative exponential curve andcalculating the indices to flatten the series, then fittinga cubic spline of stiffness (50 percent frequency cutoff)equal to the length of the series to follow the local meanof the data, and calculating the indices again. Amodification is used for those series that cannot be fit byan exponential curve and a linear regression is usedinstead. After the indices are calculated, a spline is fitwith stiffness of two -thirds the length of the series.
The double detrending option is the default in ProgramARSTAN, and it will take effect if the first three controlcard options are zero or blank. For most of the otheroptions the default (zero) value should also besatisfactory. If the control card is completely blank, allthe default options are selected.
On our current system, tape REKs show the first 50characters of the first line of a file. Program ARSTANautomatically places the date and time into columns 37 to 50of the chronology header lines. For this reason it is agood idea to have a full and unique identification of therun contained in the first 36 characters of the title, whichwill also appear in the header for the chronologies.
Data formats
See the section by the same name in the Users Manualfor Program COFECHA (Appendix 2) for information on dataformats.
Chronology versions produced pi program ARSTAN
In the file created by the program with logical filename 'CHRONS' and also printed in the output are severalversions of the site chronologies with different time- seriescharacteristics.
(1) 'STNDRD' version.
This version is produced in a manner similar to thatused in traditional chronology generating programs such asINDEX /SUMAC (Graybill, 1982). A chronology is computed ofseries of tree -ring data that have been detrended by curve-fitting to remove a large part of the variance due to causes
56
other than climate. Program ARSTAN provides several choicesof how this chronology is computed. Single or two -stagedetrending of individual series may be done with a varietyof options; indices for a series may be computed either asratios (by division) or as residuals (by subtraction); anintervention model may be applied if desired; variance maybe stabilized over time; and the mean value function may becomputed either as biweight robust estimated means or asarithmetic means. If no autoregressive modeling is done,the STNDRD chronology is the only version produced.
(2) 'RESID' version.
The initial (nonwhitened) residual version ('RES NW)is produced in the same manner as the STNDRD version, but inthis case the series summarized are residuals fromautoregressive modeling.
If modeling of the residual chronology reveals that itis an autoregressive process, the chronology is whitened bymodeling the portion of the chronology containing four ormore series, and applying the model to the entire residualseries. This produces the 'RESID' chronology version. Ifthe RES NW chronology is not an autoregressive process, theRESID chronology is identical to it. The earliest date ofthe RES NW and RESID versions may be one or more years laterthan the STNDRD. An option is provided on chronologycontrol line 2, to force whitening of the residualchronology.
(3) 'ARSTAN' version.
Pooled autoregression is added to the RESID version toproduce the ARSTAN chronology. The pooled autoregressioncontains the persistence common and synchronous among alarge proportion of series from the site, without includingthat found in only one or a very few series (Cook, 1985).It is intended to contain the best climatic signal availableat the present state of the art. The earliest date of theARSTAN chronology is usually the same year as the STNDRD, orintermediate between the STNDRD and RESID chronologyversions.
If common interval analysis is done, the requestednumber of principal component amplitudes for the commoninterval are written on the AMPLIT file (default is 4).Three sets of principal component amplitude series areproduced: for the detrended series, white noise fractionand red noise fraction respectively.
If another pair of chronology input lines is provided,another set of chronology versions (STNDRD, RESID, ARSTAN)is computed according to the next chronology mask andinstructions.
57
To run program ARSTAN:
Prepare 'INPUT' control lines according to instructions.Attach ring measurement data with logical file name
'DATA'.Attach program library and declare it a library. Request
permanent file space for 'CHRONS' and for any otherfiles to be saved.
Execute ARSTAN.Catalog the 'CHRONS' file and any others to be saved.
Control instructions:
First line -- Run title up to 80 characters long.
Second line -- Main control parameters, right -justified infields of 5 characters:
Col 1 to 5 FIT1First detrending option:
0: By default, if 'FIT1' and subsequent options 'FIT2'and 'FIT3' are all zero, an exponential curve is fit,followed by a spline with half -power cutoff (stiff-ness) equal to the length of the series. If anexponential cannot be fit, a linear regression isused, followed by a spline of stiffness equal to 2/3the series length.
The following values in 'FIT1' have these effects:
1: A negative exponential curve is fit, or if itfails, a linear regression line is fit.
2: A negative exponential curve is fit, or if it fails,a linear regression line of negative slope ora horizontal line through the mean is fit.
3: A linear regression line is fit.
4: A horizontal line is fit through the mean.
5 or greater: Spline is fit with stiffness of thismany years.
Negative: Spline with stiffness of this percent of theseries length is fit. For example, if 'FIT1' is -75,spline stiffness is 75 percent of each series length.
Col 6 to 10 FIT2Second detrending option as described above. Choicesare the same as for 'FIT1'. If 'FIT1' is nonzero and'FIT2' is zero, no second detrending is done.
58
Col 11 to 15 FIT3Percent stiffness of alternate spline. If curvespecified by 'FIT1' cannot be fit, second detrendingspline stiffness is this percent of the spline indi-cated by 'FIT2'. For example, if 'FITI' is I, 'FIT2'is -100 and 'FIT3' is 67, first detrending is exponen-tial curve and second is spline of stiffness = 'N'
1.00. If exponential cannot be fit, first detrendingis regression line and second is spline = 'N' * 1.00* .67. If 'FIT3' is zero or blank, this value is 67.
Col 16 to 20 FIT4Minimum spline stiffness -- spline length will neverbe less than this value. If zero or blank, minimumstiffness is 100. One may not wish to fit a veryflexible spline to short series in order to conservein the series a persistence structure similar to thatof the longer series.
Col 21 to 25 NEXIt may be necessary to alter or treat some seriesdifferently. NEX will contain the number of seriesthe user will select for special treatment. Thetreatments that can be specified include exceptions tothe above general curve -fitting procedure, truncationof data at either end or omission from processing.The treatments are listed on the NEX lines that follow.The maximum number here is 50.
Col 26 to 30 INDXOptions for computing indices:0: Ratio; measurement divided by curve value.1: Residual; measurement minus curve value.
Col 31 to 35 IPOptions for autoregressive modeling method:0: The same order autoregressive process as selected
by multivariate autoregressive modeling is fit toeach series using its own coefficients.
-1: Each series is modeled as an autoregressiveprocess where the order is selected for eachseries by first -minimum Akaike InformationCriterion search.
-2: No autoregressive modeling is done. The chronologyis computed by the standard method only.
>0: User override of the first- minimum Akaike informa-tion criterion search. The order to be fit toeach series is specified by a positive value.
Col 36 to 40 MASKIf this value is zero, no mask is read from input, andall series are used for computing the pooled autore-gression model. Set this value to 1 if a subset of theseries is to be used. Include the mask on an input
59
line after the lines (if any) for series to get specialtreatment. Each column of the mask corresponds sequen-tially to the respective series. Enter a '1' if theseries is to be used, or a '0' if it is to be bypassed.This option may be invoked if there is reason to believethat a subset of the series is uncontaminated bydisturbance and therefore has the cleanest stochasticstructure for modeling and for producing the 'ARSTAN'chronology.
Col 41 to 45 PLOT0: Line printer plotsof decade means of measurements,
detrending curves and indices for each series.-1: No line printer plots of individual series.
Col 48 to 50 STATDescriptive statistics computed for individual series.Place a letter 'N' in the following columns to omitstatistics for:
Col 48: Ring measurement seriesCol 49: Detrended index seriesCol 50: Residual series from autoregressive modeling
Col 51 DATA FORMATIf tree -ring data are to be read in INDEX format, placea letter 'I' in column 51. Default is to read data inring measurement format.
Col 53 to 55 LISTList the individual series values. Place any letterin the following columns to obtain full listings for:
Col 53: Ring measurement series
Col 54: Detrended index series
Col 55: Residual series from autoregressive modeling
Col 56 to 60 SAVESave individual series on disk file. Place any letterin the following columns to save these series in tree -ring measurement format (name of file created is inparentheses):
Col 56: (DATAIN) Original ring measurement series
Col 57: (CURVE1)(CURVE2)
Curves from first detrending andfrom second detrending
Col 58: (INDEX1) Series after single detrending
Col 59: (INDEX2) Series after double detrending
Col 60: (RESIDS) Residuals of series
60
Col 61 to 65 INTYIf a stand -wide (exogenous) disturbance is known tohave occurred, the starting year of the disturbance maybe entered here, and an intervention model is thenapplied to each series. If this value is zero, nointervention model is done.
Col 66 to 70 INTFDetrending option for exogenous disturbance interval.Options are the same as for 'FIT1'.
Col 71 to 75 IVSStabilization of time series variance:
0: No variance stabilization is done.1: Stabilize variance of each detrended index series.2: Stabilize variance of the chronology only.
Col 76 to 80 IVFTDetrending option for variance stabilization. Optionsare the same as those for 'FITl', plus the following:-1: Do square root transform.-2: Add 1 to each value in series and do log transform.
From zero to 50 optional lines as specified by thevalue of NEX above are inserted here to indicate the kind ofspecial treatment required, such as detrending, curve -fitting, truncation at the beginning and /or the end oromitting the series from processing. Each line contains anyor all of the following, in format (A8,2X,415):
Col i to 8: Series identification
Col 11 to 15: 'FIT1' value for this series only
Col 16 to 20: 'FIT2' value for this series only
Col 22 to 25: Beginning year of series after truncation
Col 26 to 30: Ending year of series after truncation.If either beginning or ending year specified is out ofthe date range of the series, this series will beomitted from processing. BEWARE: An omitted seriesis not counted in the sequencing, so check carefullythe pooled autoregression and chronology masks forproper sequencing.
An additional optional line is added next for thepooled autoregression mask if the MASK control parameter isgreater than zero. Each column corresponds to a seriessequence number. Enter a '1' if the series is to be used,or a '0' if it is to be bypassed.
61
Chronology computation instructions are entered next on2 or 3 lines per chronology:
Line #1 (Optional) -- Chronology title
Line #1 (or 2), A mask is entered into Col 1 to 80 aswas done for the autoregression mask described above.Each column corresponds to a series sequence number.For common interval analysis, series from a giventree are coded sequentially '1', '2', '3'. Asample mask might be:
1212123412011212121230121
Trees #1 and #2 have two series each, tree #3 hasfour series, etc. This coding is necessary forcalculating the average correlation for pairs withinand between trees, and for computing the signal -to-noise ratio. A zero embedded in the mask causes thatseries to be skipped.
Line #2 (or 3), Common interval analysis instructions:
Col 1 to 4 IFCThis is the first year of common intervalanalysis. If zero, no analysis is performed.
Col 6 to 9 ILCLast year of common interval analysis.
Col 10 to 11 SUM0: Biweight robust mean chronology is
computed.-1: Arithmetic mean chronology is computed.-2: No chronology is computed.
Col 12 to 13 IRPRewhitening option for removing persistencein residual chronology
0: Rewhitening is done if needed to the auto -regressive order selected by full -minimumAIC. The maximum order is constrained notto exceed the pooled autoregressive order.
>0: Rewhitening is done up to the order speci-fied. This option overrides the AIC, but inany case the order will not exceed the orderof the pooled autoregression model.
Col 14 to 15 STAT0: Individual series statistics are computed
for common interval.-1: No individual series statistics for common
interval.
62
Col 16 to 17 LISTO: Long list and printer plot of chronology.
-1: No long list or printer plot.
Col 18 to 19 NEIGThe number of eigenvectors and principalcomponent amplitudes to be calculated fromthe common interval, printed and saved in file'AMPLIT'. If the number entered is greaterthan the number of series, all that can becalculated are saved. The following entriesdesignate special conditions:
0: The default number of four eigenvectors andamplitudes are printed and saved.
<O: No eigenvectors or amplitudes are calculated.
On the University of Arizona CYBER 175, Program ARSTANrequires 350K of central memory. An example of the jobcontrol lines for Program ARSTAN as used on the Universityof Arizona CYBER 175 computer follows:
The above lines are the only instructions required for astandard run of Program ARSTAN. The following lines areoptional, and if present, follow the control parameter line.The number of these lines is placed in column 25 of thecontrol parameter line, in this example, '5'.
Instructions for "exceptions" to control parameters:
PBA10A 0 0 1473 0 (Omit part before 1473)PBA04D 0 0 0 1973 (Omit part after 1973)PBA17C 0 0 -999 0 (Omit series from processing
Autoregression mask (If this line is present, place a '1' incolumn 40 of the control parameter line.)
1111101111111011111100111111111101111
64
Subroutines required by Program ARSTAN
On the University of Arizona CYBER 175, the main programand all required subroutines are contained in program libraryRLHLIB, ID = RLH. On tapes provided for other users, the mainprogram and all subroutines are written on a single file. In
addition to the main program, ARSTAN, the followingsubroutines are needed: ADRED, ARCOR, ARSTA, ARSUM, BIWGT,COMPAC, COPY, CRONY, CURVE, DETRND, DIVSER, FTAUTO, HOM VAR,HTDQL, MATINV, MEMPR, PAGE, PLTDEC, POOL, PROB, PRTDAT, RANK,RESUME, SPLINE, STAT2, TREND, TRIR.
The program dimensions may be modified to handle moreseries (or less) and /or a longer (or shorter) chronology, by
changing the PARAMETER statement following the PROGRAM line inARSTAN. 'M XS' should be set to one greater than the maximumnumber of series; 'MXY' to nine more than the maximumchronology length.
The Literature Cited section preceding Appendix 1contains the references for this appendix.
Acknowledgements of support in development of Program ARSTAN
The work of both authors was supported by the Division ofAtmospheric Sciences, Climate Dynamics Research Section, U. S.
National Science Foundation.
Edward R. Cook, Tree -Ring Laboratory, Lamont -DohertyGeological Observatory, Palisades, New York, was supported by
Grant ATM-8108459.
Richard L. Holmes, Laboratory of Tree -Ring Research,University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, was supported by GrantATM -8303192.
We are indebted to Harold C. Fritts for much consultationand advice on studying the time series characteristics ofchronologies produced by the program. David W. Stahle of theUniversity of Arkansas, Fayetteville and Jose A. Boninsegna,Instituto Argentino de Nivología y Glaciologia, Mendoza,Argentina, users of program ARSTAN since its early days, have
made valuable comments and suggestions which have led to
significant improvements. We thank Margaret Harrington,Barbara Molloy and Jacqueline Mather for transcription andreview of the text.
65
APPENDIX 3
S I T E C H R O N O L O G I E S
The site chronologies appear in the order of their latitude,
north to south, numbered as in Tables 1 and 2.
See Figure 1 for a map of chronology site locations.
66
TREE -RING COLLECTION SITE SPR Site no. 1
Site name: SPRING CANYON and SHARP RIDGESpecies collected: WESTERN JUNIPER, Juniperus occidentalis
LODGEPOLE PINE, Pinus contortaCountry: U.S.A. State: OREGON County: GRANTAdministration: UMATILLA NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 15' series, Dale, OR 1951Elevation: 1340 -1610 m Latitude: 44° 54'N Longitude: 118° 55'WNo. of trees sampled: JUOC 38 No. of core samples: JUOC 72
PICO 1 PICO 1
Date of collection: JUL 1983 Collectors: RLH, RKA, MRR, WXD
Site description:
This collection is from two subsites in the southwest portion of Umatilla NationalForest in northeastern Oregon. The 29 trees of the Spring Canyon subsite are 11.2 km(7 mi) south of the small village of Dale and 8 km (5 mi) southeast of U.S. Highway395. They are on a flat- topped ridge overlooking Spring Canyon and Bully Creek. The 9trees of the Sharp Ridge collection, 8 km (5 mi) east -southeast of Spring Canyon, areat scattered locations along the Sharp Ridge Road. Both locations have an igneousbedrock base of basalt and andesite in flat- topped flow ridges and rock piles. Theaccumulated soil is thin (20 to 40 cm) on both the flat ridgetops and on the moderate(6° to 12 °) southwest and south facing slopes. In the Spring Canyon subsite the standis open, mostly western juniper with a few ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa). The
openness may be a result of cutting and forest fires. The understory is sagebrush(Artemisia spp), buck brush (Ceanothus spp), gooseberry (Ribes spp) and many wildflowers and grasses. At the Sharp Ridge subsite the stand is a closed mixed coniferforest of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), Douglas -fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii),lodgepole pine and some firs (Abies spp). Western juniper are fairly sparse. Theunderstory here is similar to Spring Canyon, though thinner and with less sagebrush.In both subsites juniper is beset with heartrot and by the moss called "Old Man'sBeard."
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSSPRING CANYON, OREGON [JUOC]Chronology 1405 to 1982 (578 years) 31 trees, 59 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 2) ARSTANMeanMedianMean sensitivityStandard deviationSkewnessKurtosis
Autocorrelation orderPartial autocorr. orderPartial autocorr. order
1.000 1.000 1.001.982 .958 .972
.290 .339 .298
.347 .313 .330
.591 .691 .651
3.927 4.168 3.920
1 .437 -.047 .285
2 .070 -.044 .162
3 -.027 -.025 -.022
Variance from autoregression 21.9 pct 13.0 pct
Error variance .013002 .008551Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .658
Common interval 1847 to 1982 (136 years) 27 trees, 43 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radiiBetween trees (Y variance)Within trees
Signal -to -noise ratio
.427 .482
.420 .474
.742 .787
19.52 24.35Agreement with pop. chron. .951 .961
Variance in eigenvector 1 43.90 pct 49.22 pctChron, common interval mean 1.014 1.005Chron. common interval st dev .257 .230
67
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Site name: COMMITTEE CREEKSpecies collected: WESTERN JUNIPER, Juniperus occidentalis
PONDEROSA PINE, Pinus ponderosaCountry: U.S.A. State: OREGON County: CROOKAdministration: BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENTMap reference: USGS 1:250,000 series, Bend, OR and Ochoco
National Forest map 1979Elevation: 1486 -1518 m Latitude:44° 10'N Longitude: 120° 14'WNo. of trees sampled: JUOC 29 No. of core samples: JUOC 65
PIPO 2 PIPO 4
Date of collection: JUL 1983 Collectors: RLH, MRR, RKA, WXD
Site description:
The three subsites comprising the Committee Creek collection are 75.2 km (47 mi)east- southeast of the town of Prineville, Oregon, near the headwaters of CommitteeCreek, a small tributary of the North Fork of the Crooked River, at the southernboundary of the west portion of Ochoco National Forest. All the subsite areas are onthe slopes and ridge tops of igneous basalt outcrops. Two subsites are on moderatelysteep (8° to 14 °) south -southeast and east facing slopes. A third subsite is across thevalley and the sampled trees are on a much steeper (20° to 25 °) west to southwestfacing slope. The sampled juniper ranges from 5 to 11 m in height and 47 to 90 cm indiameter. The presence of stumps indicates logging and limbing. There are also a fewfire -scarred trees. In the third area many of the sampled trees have spiked crowns ordead branches. Many of the junipers have heartrot, where the wood produced prior toabout 1740 has rotted away. This is an unusual setting for a western juniper site asthere are also ponderosa pine, western larch (Larix occidentalis) and some firs (Abiesspp) in a mixed conifer forest. The understory consists of sagebrush (Artemisia spp),rabbit brush (Crysothamnus spp) and mountain mahogany (Cercocarpus spp).
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSCOMMITTEE CREEK, OREGON [JUOC]
Chronology 1260 to 1982 (723 years) 22 trees, 40 radii
Autocorrelation order 1 .413 -.003 .375Partial autocorr. order 2 .202 -.005 .197Partial autocorr. order 3 .070 -.045 -.005
Variance from autoregression 16.7 pct 14.1 pctError variance .010361 .006877Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .664
Common interval 1747 to 1982 (236 years) 17 trees, 23 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .510 .603Between trees (Y variance) .496 .592Within trees .785 .817
Signal -to -noise ratio 16.72 24.67Agreement with pop. chron. .944 .961Variance in eigenvector 1 52.44 pct 61.56 pctChron. common interval mean 1.041 1.013Chron. common interval st dev .292 .263
70
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Site name: CALAMITY CREEKSpecies collected: WESTERN JUNIPER, Juniperus occidentalisCountry: U.S.A. State: OREGON County: HARNEYAdministration: MALHEUR NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 15' series, Calamity Butte, OR 1961Elevation: 1433 -1494 m Latitude: 43° 59'N Longitude: 118° 48'WNo. of trees sampled: 40 No. of core samples: 91Date of collection: JUL 1983 Collectors: RLH, MRR, RKA, WXD
Site description:
The site collection consists of two subsites on opposing bluffs of a smalltributary drainage of Calamity Creek in eastern Oregon. Access to this area is fromU.S. Highway 395, 13.6 km (8.5 mi) east on the Van -Silvies Road. The intersection ofthe Van -Silvies Road and U.S. Highway 395 is 17.6 km (11 mi) south of the village ofSeneca and 54.4 km (34 mi) north of the town of Burns. Both subsites are on steep (20to 45 °) slopes and vertical cliffs of mixed metamorphic schists and igneous outcropsthat overlook the Van -Silvies Road and Calamity Creek, 1.2 km (0.8 mi) west of IthemaSpring. The slopes predominantly, face south, southeast and east. On the bedrockoutcrops and the cliffs there is almost no soil, while on the bluff tops and in some ofthe colluvial slopes there is 30 to 100 cm of sandy or ashy soil. For the majority ofthe sites the stand is open, with a few clusters. The juniper ranges from 4 to 11 m inheight and 44 to 120 cm in diameter. Many trees have large basal branches and multipletrunks. Juniper is the only tree in the area, though ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa)grows downslope near the banks of Calamity Creek. The understory is open and consistsof sagebrush (Artemisia spp), bitter brush (Purshia spp), buck brush (Ceanothus spp)and rabbit brush (Crysothamnus spp) with native and non -native grasses. Cattle grazein the area. Some trees have fire scars or cut limbs, and there are a few stumps.Many trees have heartrot inward from the early to middle 1700s. As a footnote, manystone flakes and broken stone artifacts are present, indicating human utilization ofthese bluffs.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSCALAMITY CREEK, OREGON [JUOC]
Chronology 1396 to 1982 (587 years) 29 trees, 49 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 2) ARSTANMean 1.000 .998 1.000Median .976 .976 .971Mean sensitivity .273 .300 .281
Standard deviation .278 .266 .274
Skewness .482 .400 .476
Kurtosis 3.667 3.710 3.664
Autocorrelation order 1 .232 -.002 .172Partial autocorr. order 2 .131 -.014 .137
Partial autocorr. order 3 -.006 -.055 -.060
Variance from autoregression 6.6 pct 5.2 pctError variance .005865 .005141
Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .877
Common interval 1774 to 1981 (208 years) 27 trees, 44 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)
Among all radii .442 .533
Between trees (Y variance) .434 .526
Within trees .739 .792
Signal -to -noise ratio 20.72 29.99Agreement with pop. chron. .954 .968
Variance in eigenvector 1 45.31 pct 54.07 pctChron. common interval mean 994 995Chron. common interval st dev .256 .249
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Site name: HORSE RIDGESpecies collected: WESTERN JUNIPER, Juniperus occidentalieCountry :U.S.A. State :OREGON County:'DESCHUTESAdministration: BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENTMap reference: USGS 7.5' series, Horse Ridge, OR 1967,
photo revised 1981Elevation: 1109 -1183 m Latitude: 43° 58'N Longitude: 121° 04'WNo. of trees sampled: 43 No. of core samples: 92Date of collection: JUN 1983 Collectors: RLH, RKA, MRR, WXD
Site description:
The summit of Horse Ridge along U.S. Highway 20 is 33.6 km (21 mi) southeast ofthe city of Bend in central Oregon. The site collection is from five subsitesscattered for 6.4 km (4 mi) along U.S. Highway 20 north of Horse Ridge on a series offlat basalt lava flows and boulder piles. On the bedrock areas soils are very thin,but off the bedrock there are 50 to 100 cm of aeolian sand deposits. Most of thesampled trees are on nearly flat locations. In the sloped areas, the slope does notexceed 10 °, though some trees are on cliffs at the margins of basalt flows. Most ofthe slopes face southwest, south and southeast. The stand is very open and isexclusively western juniper. The'sampled trees range from 5 to 11 m in height and 40 to150 cm in diameter. The understory is also very open and consists of sagebrush(Artemisia spp), rabbit brush (Crysothamnus spp), snake weed (Gutierrezia spp) andnative and non -native grasses. Cattle graze in the area. Most of the standdisturbance is from wood cutting rather than fire. There is a good deal of heartrot inmost junipers inward from the 1730s and 1740s. This site is the lowest in elevationcollected on the project.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSHORSE RIDGE, OREGON (JUOC)Chronology 1281 to 1982 (702 years) 36 trees, 66 radii
Autocorrelation order 1 .307 .002 .275Partial autocorr. order 2 .039 -.069 .021Partial autocorr. order 3 .033 .021 .033
Variance from autoregression 10.2 pct 7.7 pctError variance .011401 .010874Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .954
Common interval 1755 to 1982 (228 years) 33 trees, 55 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .653 .691Between trees (Y variance) .647 .686Within trees .857 .874
Signal -to -noise ratio 60.53 72.26Agreement with pop. chron. .984 .986Variance in eigenvector 1 65.29 pct 69.14 pctChron. common interval mean 1.002 1.005Chron. common interval st dev .458 .434
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Site name: FREDERICK BUTTESpecies collected: WESTERN JUNIPER, Juniperus occidentalisCountry: U.S.A. State: OREGON County: DESCHUTES and LAKE.
Administration: BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENTMap reference: USGS 1:250,000 Crescent City, OR 1955, revised 1970Elevation: 1433 -1554 m Latitude: 43° 35'N Longitude: 120° 27'WNo. of trees sampled: 50 No. of core samples: 125Date of collection: JUN 1983 Collectors: RLH, RKA, MRR, WXD
Site description:
This site is in central Oregon 96 km (60 mi) southeast of the city of Bend. It
consists of 14 subsites scattered along a county road from 4.8 km (3 mi) south of U.S.Highway 20 to the north edge of Christmas Valley, 28.8 km (18 mi) south of U.S. Highway20. Frederick Butte is the midpoint along this sampling transect. All but one subsiteare on very low flat basalt lava flow benches in 10 to 20 cm of aeolian sandy soil.Some of the trees are off the basalt bedrock benches in deeper (10 to 50 cm) aeoliansand. The exception is at the 960 Ranch in Christmas Valley, in deep (100 to 200 cm)aeolian /alluvial sand. The trees sampled here are very large, but dating reveals theyare not as old as trees from other subsites. Of the subsites only one area hadappreciable slope (4° to 6° to the southeast). All other subsites are on flat ground.The western juniper stands are open with occasional fairly dense clusters around basaltbedrock outcrops. All the juniper is short (4 to 9 m) but fairly large in diameter (50to 225 cm). Many trees have large basal branches and multiple trunks.. The understoryis open sagebrush (Artemisia spp), buck brush (Ceanothus app) and native and non -nativegrasses. There is little evidence of forest fires; wood cutting and limbing are themajor stand disturbance. Cattle also graze in the area. The oldest dated tree forthis project has an inside date of A.D. 1096. Though most of the trees are probablyquite old, heart -rot inward from the 1730s and 1740s causes a major problem inobtaining old cores. Included in this collection are five trees from Glass Buttes,33.6 km (21 mi) east southeast of Frederick Butte. The setting on the south side ofClass Buttes is similar, but the flat lava flow bedrock has a great deal of obsidian(volcanic glass).
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSFREDERICK BUTTE, OREGON [JUOC)Chronology 1097 to 1982 (886 years) 32 trees, 76 radii
Autocorrelation order 1 .195 -.037 .226Partial autocorr. order 2 .040 -.034 .134Partial autocorr. order 3 .047 -.023 -.062
Variance from autoregression 4.2 pct 6.3 pctError variance .006235 .005486Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .880
Common interval 1750 to 1982 (233 years) 29 trees, 53 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .553 .614Between trees (Y variance) .543 .605Within trees .844 .871
Signal -to -noise ratio 34.44 44.34Agreement with pop. chron. .972 .978Variance in eigenvector 1 55.49 pct 61.45 pctChron. common interval mean .996 .998Chron. common interval st dev .359 .338
30
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Site name: LOST FORESTSpecies collected: PONDEROSA PINE, Pinus ponderosa
WESTERN JUNIPER, Juniperus occidentalisCountry: U.S.A. State: OREGON County: LAKEAdministration: LOST FOREST RESEARCH NATURAL AREAMap reference: USGS 7.5' series, Moonlight Butte, OR 1981
and Sandrock, OR 1981Elevation: 1364 -1384 m Latitude: 43 ° 22'N Longitude: 120° 18'WNo. of trees sampled: PIPO 23 No. of core samples: PIPO 54
JUOC 3 JUOC 4
Date of collection: JUL 1983 Collectors: RLH, RKA, MRR, WXD
Site description:
This collection comes from an unusual ponderosa pine forest in central Oregon.According to information posted at the north entrance to Lost Forest Research NaturalArea, it is 64 km (40 mi) from any other pine forest. Access is either 46.4 km (29 mi)north -northwest from U.S. Highway 20 along an unpaved county road, or from anunnumbered county road 16 km (10 mi) to the south that runs between the village ofChristmas Valley and U.S. Highway 395. The site collection consists of five subsitesscattered over 4.8 km (3 mi) along the road through the Lost Forest Research NaturalArea. The subsite areas are nearly identical in appearance: flat to slightly slopedwith 100 to 2.00 cm of aeolian sand in nearly stabilized dunes deposited on and aroundbedrock of igneous flows and rock piles. The sampled ponderosa pine range from 6 to 19m in height and 25 to 128 cm in diameter in fairly open stands and isolated trees.Western juniper is present in very limited numbers. The open understory consists oftall sagebrush (Artemisia spp), buck brush (Ceanothus spp) and native and non -nativegrasses. There is evidence of forest fires and extensive cutting of larger trees. Thepines do not suffer from heartrot as do the junipers.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSLOST FOREST, OREGON [PIPO]Chronology 1459 to 1982 (524 years) 23 trees, 48 radii
Autocorrelation order 1 .612 .063 .658Partial autocorr. order 2 .121 -.002 .131Partial autocorr. order 3 -.004 .039 -.009
Variance from autoregression 38.9 pct 45.3 pctError variance .004355 .005422Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) 1.245
Common interval 1624 to 1982 (359 years) 14 trees, 25 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .601 .550Between trees (Y variance) .588 .540Within trees .813 .734
Signal -to -noise ratio 20.01 16.41Agreement with pop. chron. .952 .943Variance in eigenvector 1 61.19 pct 56.56 pctChron. common interval mean .986 .997Chron. common interval st dev .376 .288
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Site name: LITTLE JUNIPER MOUNTAINSpecies collected: WESTERN JUNIPER, Juniperus occidentalisCountry: U.S.A. State: OREGON County: HARNEYAdministration: BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENTMap reference: USGS 1:250,000 Burns, OR 1955, revised 1970Elevation: 1524 -1768 m Latitude: 43° 08'N Longitude: 119° 52'WNo. of trees sampled: 49 No. of core samples: 97Date of collection: JUN 1983 Collectors: RLH, RKA, MRR, WXD
Site description:
Little Juniper Mountain is 9.6 km (6 mi) east of U.S. Highway 395 along a gravelcounty loop road in southeastern Oregon. It is 52.8 km (33 mi) southwest of theintersection of U.S. Highway 395 and U.S. Highway 20. The collection comes from asingle location west of and paralleling the gravel road and southeast of Little JuniperMountain 1.6 km (1 mi). The sampled trees are on flat low igneous rhyolite and weldedtuff benches with minimal soil accumulation, and in fairly flat colluvium 20 to 40 cmthick. Slope is from 2° to 10 °. Some trees are at short dropoffs at the margins ofthe benches. The site faces southeast to northeast. The stand is exclusively westernjuniper of all age classes. The sampled trees range from 4 to 10 m in height and 39 to129 cm in diameter. The understory is open with sagebrush (Artemisia spp) and rabbitbrush (Chrysothamnus spp) dominating along with native and non -native grasses. Fires,wood cutting and limbing have taken a toll on some trees and contribute to standdisturbance. These juniper exhibit pronounced heartrot inward from the 1730s and1740s. A collection of 14 cores from 8 trees in a very similar setting at JuniperMountain, 35.2 km (22 mi) south of Little Juniper Mountain, were added to thiscollection.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSLITTLE JUNIPER MOUNTAIN, OREGON [JUOC]Chronology 1377 to 1982 (606 years) 35 trees, 66 radii
Autocorrelation order 1 .235 -.005 .316Partial autocorr. order 2 .118 -.048 .107Partial autocorr. order 3 .005 .002 -.089
Variance from autoregression 6.1 pct 11.2 pctError variance .009923 .007472Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .753
Common interval 1781 to 1982 (202 years) 34 trees, 57 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .656 .702Between trees (Y variance) .652 .699Within trees .828 .848
Signal -to -noise ratio 63.73 78.98Agreement with pop. chron. .985 .987Variance in eigenvector 1 65.59 pct 70.20 pctChron. common interval mean 1.004 .997Chron. common interval st dev .371 .343
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Site name: STEENS MOUNTAINSpecies collected: WESTERN JUNIPER, Juniperus occidentalisCountry: U.S.A. State: OREGON County: HARNEYAdministration: BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENTMap reference: USGS 7.5' series, Fish Lake, OR 1968
Tombstone Canyon, OR 1968Roaring Springs, OR 1967
Elevation: 1625 -1686 m Latitude: 42° 40'N Longitude: 118° 55'WNo. of trees sampled: 48 No. of core samples: 102Date of collection: Jun 1983 Collectors: RLH, MRR, RKA, WXD
Site description:
This site consists of four subsites scattered for 20.8 km (13 mi) along the SteensMountain Loop Road 24 km (15 mi) southeast of the small village of Frenchglen and 17.6km (11 mi) west of Steens Mountain in the southeast corner of Oregon. Access is fromState Highway 205. The closest subsite to Steens Mountain is a fairly flat igneousbasalt lava boulder and cobble field. Soil accumulation is 10 to 20 cm of aeolianmaterials. Two other areas are along the Steens Mountain Loop Road 4.8 km east ofCatlow Rim and 2.4 km (1.5 mi) west of Bald Headed Camp. They are on the upper portionof a set of 30 m high igneous basalt flow benches. To the west away from the benchmargin the land is nearly level (2° to 12 °) east facing slope. Several of the sampledtrees are near the east bench margin which has nearly vertical drops. Soil here is athin aeolian deposit. In most areas the stands of western juniper are open thoughthere is clustering of trees near the breaks in slope. Western juniper is the onlytree in the area. Other species include sagebrush (Artemisia spp), rabbit brush(Crysothamnus spp), gooseberry (Ribes spp), wild onion (Allium spp) and native and non-native grasses. According to a BLM representative in Burns, Oregon, nearly 75 percentof Steens Mountain, including Catlow Rim, has been logged. There is evidence of forestfires, and in the early and middle 20th century the land was heavily grazed by sheep.The sampled junipers range from 3 to 10 m in height and 38 to 130 cm in diameter, andexhibit heartrot inward from the 1730s and 1740s.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSSTEENS MOUNTAIN, OREGON (JUOC)Chronology 1501 to 1982 (482 years) 25 trees, 50 radii
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Site name: GRASSHOPPER TRAILSpecies collected: WESTERN JUNIPER, Juniperus occidentelisCountry: U.S.A. State: IDAHO County: OWYHEEAdministration: BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENTMap reference: USGS 7.5' series, Pleasant Valley, ID 1973Elevation: 1689 -1713m Latitude: 42° 3'N Longitude: 116° 48'WNo. of trees sampled: 49 No. of core samples: 106Date of collection: JUL 1985 Collectors: RLH, RKA, VCK, CJE
Site description:
This is a western juniper site in southwestern Idaho in the south end of theOwyhee Mountains if km (5 mi) south of the North Fork of the Owyhee River. Access isthrough the town of Grand View 78 km (52 mi) to the northeast along a gravel roadidentified as the Mudflat -Deep Creek Road. There are three subsite areas: the majorityof the collection are at,the subsite along a jeep track called Grasshopper Trail 3.2 km(2 mi) south of the Deep Creek Road. The trees are growing in the bedrock of a seriesof low gently sloped (2° to 8 °) benches with occasional short cliffs of igneousrhyolite. These benches have 10 to 20 cm of soil. In the drainages there is moresoil, up to 100 cm or more. The slopes generally face south and. southeast. Thesampled trees range from 2.5 to 19 m in height and 25 to 200 cm in diameter. The standis open with a few locations having clusters of juniper. Juniper is: the only tree inthe site, although curlleaf mountain mahogany (Cercocarpus.latifoliva) is nearly bigenough to be considered a tree in this area. Additional species are the sagebrush( Artemisia spp), bitter brush (Purshia spp), some buckwheats (Eriogonum spp), wildonions (Allium spp)., composites and grasses.. The site contains stumps and limbed treesand also shows signs of fires. Historic period: hunting camps are present as well asprehistoric artifacts. of chert.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS'GRASSHOPPER TRAIL, IDAHO [JUOCJChronology 1492 to 1984 (493 years)
Autocorrelation order 1 .268 -.002 .157Partial autocorr. order 2 .122 -.004 .093Partial autocorr. order 3 .034 -.021 -.032
Variance from autoregression 9.2 pct 3.5 pctError variance .004862 .002842Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .585
Common interval 1769 to 1976 (208 years) 26 trees, 43 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .477 .596Between trees (Y variance) .470 .591Within trees .739 .800
Signal -to -noise ratio 23.07 37.52Agreement with pop. chron. .958 .974Variance in eigenvector 1 48.71 pct 60.20 pctChron. common interval mean .988 .992Chron. common interval st dev .249 .244
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Site name: JARBIDGE CANYONSpecies collected: ROCKY MOUNTAIN JUNIPER, Juniperus scopulorumCountry: U.S.A. State: NEVADA County: ELKOAdministration: HUMBOLDT NATIONAL FOREST and BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENTMap reference: USGS 15' series, Jarbidge, NV -ID 1945Elevation: 1753 -1951 m Latitude: 41° 56'N Longitude: 115° 25'W
No. of trees sampled: 38 No. of core samples: 83Date of collection: JUL 1935 Collectors: RLH, RKA, VCK, CJE
Site description:
The old mining town of Jarbidge is in northeast Nevada 16 km (10 mi) south of theIdaho -Nevada border. The Rocky Mountain juniper site consists of five subsite areasalong the high benches above the Jarbidge River north of the town for 12.8 km (8 mi),on very steep (40° to 60 °) west- facing slopes with several trees at the edges of highcliffs. Bedrock is igneous rhyolite. Soil is almost nonexistent as the very steepslopes descend in a series of benches 230 m from the upper rim to the canyon floor ofthe Jarbidge River. The stands in most of the subsite areas tend to be open, althoughthere is clustering around certain bedrock situations such as the heads of colluvialboulder landslide chutes. The sampled trees range from 3 to 9 m in height and 25 to 98cm in diameter. Rocky Mountain juniper is the only tree in the area, though curlleafmountain mahogany (Cercocarpus latifolius) grows nearly to tree size here. Othervegetation includes sagebrush (Artemisia spp), gooseberry (Ribes spp), wild rose (Rosaspp), raspberry (Rubus spp), many wild flowers and grasses. Being close to a boomingmining town made the trees vulnerable to disturbance. Even though the slopes are verysteep, there are many stumps and limbed trees, and some trees exhibit fire scars.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSJARBIDGE CANYON, IDAHO [JUSC]Chronology 1334 to 1984 (651 years) 21 trees, 42 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 3) ARSTANMean 1.000 .992 1.001Median .989 1.003 .992
Mean sensitivity .269 .251 .263
Standard deviation .276 .215 .267
Skewness .541 -.155 .444
Kurtosis 4.938 3.665 4.522
Autocorrelation order 1 .282 .003 .250Partial autocorr. order 2 .169 -.010 .129
Partial autocorr. order 3 .046 -.075 .010
Variance from autoregression 4.7 pct 4.1 pct
Error variance .006950 .005032Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN / STNDRD) .724
Common interval 1764 to 1984 (221 years) 18 trees, 33 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .413 .455Between trees (Y variance) .400 .442Within trees .665 .707
Signal -to -noise ratio 12.01 14.25Agreement with pop. chron. .923 .934
Variance in eigenvector 1 43.39 pct 47.10 pctChron. common interval mean .985 .992
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Site name: HAGER BASIN RESERVOIRSpecies collected: WESTERN JUNIPER, Juniperus occidentalisCountry: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: MODOCAdministration: MODOC NATIONAL FORESTMapreference: USGS 15' series, Steele Swamp, CA /OR 1962Elevation: 1518 -1530 m Latitude: 41° 46'N Longitude: 120° 45'WNo. of trees sampled: 27 No. of core samples: 58Date of collection: JUL 1981 Collectors: RLH, RKA, KL
Site description:
The site is near the south end of Hager Basin in northeast California, northwest ofthe town of Alturas, southwest of Hager Ranch, 0.8 km (0.5 mi) and 23 km (14.3 mi)north of Big Sage Reservoir. The two subsite areas are just to the west and east ofCrowder Flat Road (Modoc County Road 73). The sampled trees are located on fairly flatto gently west sloping (0° to 8 °) bedrock basalt flows in a series of low shallowbenches. Soil development is minimal, and depth is less than 10 cm except in a fewpockets where aeolian sands and silts have collected. This stand of western juniper isvery open with 10 to 20 m or more between trees. There are many young trees here inaddition to the older ones that were sampled. The sampled trees are from 6 to 12 m inheight and 63 to 140 cm in diameter. The site shows evidence of wood cutting andlimbing, but there does not seem to be much fire damage. Many of the larger trees arehollow and wood rats or pack rats have built nests inside. Cattle also graze at thesite. Western juniper is the only tree form in this area. Sagebrush (Artemisia spp)is a very low shrub, and there is bitter brush (Purshia spp), some wild rose (Rosa spp)and native and non -native grasses.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSHAGER BASIN, CALIFORNIA [JUOC]
Chronology 1310 to 1980 (671 years) 24 trees, 54 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 2) ARSTANMean 1.000 1.000 1.000Median .984 .994 .989Mean sensitivity .230 .249 .230
Variance from autoregression 10.4 pct 10.5 pctError variance .005807 .003658Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .630
Common interval 1803 to 1980 (178 years) 23 trees, 38 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .432 .505Between trees (Y variance) .423 .498Within trees .687 .701
Signal -to -noise ratio 16.85 22.83Agreement with pop. chron. .944 .958
Variance in eigenvector 1 44.59 pct 51.65 pctChron. common interval mean .987 .995
Chron. common interval st dev .230 .213
101
Figure A3-3. Western juniper of the northern subspecies (occidenta1is), growing on basalt flat at Site 11, Hager Basin, California. The tree being sampled measures 8 m in height and 68 cm in diameter at breast height, and dates
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HAGER BASIN RESERVOIR. CALIFORNIA JUNIPERUS OCCIDENTAL'S
Site name: SHARP MOUNTAINSpecies collected: WESTERN JUNIPER, Juniperus occidentalisCountry: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: SISKIYOUAdministration: KLAMATH NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 15' series, Bray, CA 1950Elevation: 1335 -1500 m Latitude: 41° 44'N Longitude: 121° 49'WNo. of trees sampled: 42 No. of core samples: 86Date of collection: JUL 1983 Collectors: RLH, MRR, RKA, WXD
Site description:
The Sharp Mountain site in north central California consists of eight subsiteareas scattered from the northeast flank of Sharp Mountain northwestward 4.8 km (3 mi)to a location just southwest of Tecnor. The subsites are further scattered south 11.2km (7 mi) between Long Prairie and Wild Horse Mountain. Access is through Bray, 11.2km (7 mi) east of U.S. Highway 97 and 14.4 km (9 mi) southwest of Tecnor, or from thenorth off Forest Road 45N0.5. All the subsites, with the exception of one area on thesloping northeast flank of a cinder cone volcano remnant, are on nearly level toslightly sloping basalt bedrock flows or boulder -cobble fields. Soil development isminimal with 20 to 30 cm of accumulated aeolian sands and silts and some weatheredparent material. All but one of the subsite stands are open. The majority of thetrees are young. Sampled trees range from 5 to 12 m in height and 50 to 141 cm indiameter. Nearly every subsite has evidence of extensive stand disturbance both bycutting and by fire. Cattle also graze throughout the area. In several locations,ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and incense cedar (Libocedrus decurrens) grow with thejuniper. Mountain mahogany (Cercocarpus spp), low sagebrush (Artemisia spp), bitterbrush (Purshia spp) and several species of native and non -native grasses are alsopresent. Heart rot of the western juniper is a frequent occurrence at this site. Veryfew cores going back prior to the 1740's were collected at this site. Two partialcross sections were recovered from stumps in hopes of obtaining a longer chronology,but they proved to be no older than the majority of the trees.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSSHARP MOUNTAIN, CALIFORNIA [JUOC]
Chronology 1548 to 1982 (435 years) 27 trees, 50 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 2) ARSTANMean 1.000 .998 1.001Median 1.006 1.014 .998
Mean sensitivity .306 .274 .299
Standard deviation .327 .233 .324Skewness .283 -.073 .350
Kurtosis 5.375 2.698 5.418
Autocorrelation order 1 .288 -.005 .318
Partial autocorr. order 2 .142 -.034 .111
Partial autocorr. order 3 -.069 -.029 -.083
Variance from autoregression 19.6 pct 19.1 pctError variance .024251 .022209Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .916
Common interval 1801 to 1981 (181 years) 18 trees, 30 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .433 .477
Between trees (Y «ariance) .420 .465
Within trees .696 .713
Signal -to -noise ratio 13.05 15.64
Agreement with pop. chron. .929 .940
Variance in eigenvector 1 45.34 pct 49.23 pctChron. common interval mean 1.006 1.001
Chron. common interval st dev .290 .248
105
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Site name: TIMBERED MOUNTAINSpecies collected: WESTERN JUNIPER, Juniperus occidentalis
PONDEROSA PINE, Pinus ponderosaCountry: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: MODOCAdministration: MODOC NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 15' series, Big Sage Reservoir, CA 1962
USCS 15' series, Jacks Butte, CA 1962Elevation: 1555 -1616 m Latitude: 41° 44'N Longitude: 120° 45'WNo. of trees sampled: JUOC 15 No. of core samples: JUOC 29
PIPO 1 PIPO 2
Date of collection: JUL 1981 Collectors: RLH, RKA, KL
Site description:
Timbered Mountain is a low basalt flow mesa northwest of the town of Alturas innortheast California. It is 15.5 km (9.3 mi) north -northwest of Big Sage Reservoir and0.4 km (0.3 mi) east of Crowder Flat Road (Modoc County Road 73). Three subsites weresampled, all with evidence of much wood cutting, some evidence of fire and extensivecattle grazing. One subsite is on the gently sloped (0° to 8 °), basalt boulder- cobble-covered southwestern and southeastern flanks of Timbered Mountain. A second subsite islocated 0.8 km (0.5 mi) north and west of Timbered Mountain along Modoc County Road 73in a similar setting. The soil is thin, 10 to 30 cm, with occasional deeper pockets.The stand of western juniper is very open to moderately dense on top of TimberedMountain. It is a mixed age stand and with some heartrot and infestations of moss andmistletoe. The sampled trees are 8 to 14 m in height and 43 to 103 cm in diameter.The ponderosa pine occurs as isolated trees scattered among the juniper. Associatedvegetation includes low sagebrush (Artemisia spp), bitter brush (Purshia spp) andperennial and annual grasses. The third subsite consists of the Big Sage Reservoircollection, which was combined with this collection. It is 1.5 km (0.9 mi) west of BigSage Reservoir, and 14 km (8.4 mi) south southeast of the first two subsites. It issimilar but more nearly flat and with less woodcutting.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSTIMBERED MOUNTAIN, CALIFORNIA [JUOC]
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Site name: DALTON RESERVOIRSpecies collected: PONDEROSA PINE, Pinus ponderosaCountry: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: MODOCAdministration: MODOC NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 15' series, Jacks Butte, CA 1962Elevation: 1463 -1524 m Latitude: 41° 39'N Longitude: 120° 58'WNo. of trees sampled: 20 No. of core samples: 41Date of collection: JUL 1981 Collectors: RLH, RKA, KL
Site description:
The sampled areas extend 6 km (3.6 mi) along Mowitz Road between Mowitz Butte tankand the road to Dalton Reservoir. Mowitz Butte is 18.2 km (12 mi) north of CaliforniaState Highway 139. All the subsites are on flat basalt flow cobble and boulder fields.Soil is 10 to 40 cm thick and mostly of aeolian origin. In this area ponderosa pine isdominant, and the stands range from very open to fairly dense, with an almost closedcanopy in some areas. Sampled trees range from 10 to 22 m in height and 64 to 135 cmin diameter. The stands are mostly of mixed age, but in some locations they appear tobe second growth after logging or fire. Cattle graze in the areas. Western juniper(Juniperus occidentalis), mountain mahogany
grasses
- CHRONOLOGY
(Cercocarpus spp), sagebrush (Artemisiaspp) and native and non -native
PROGRAM ARSTAN
share the landscape
STATISTICS
with the ponderosa pine.
DALTON RESERVOIR, CALIFORNIA [PIPO]Chronology 1357 to 1980 (624 years) 20 trees, 43 radii
Autocorrelation order 1 .647 -.007 .594Partial autocorr. order 2 .133 .039 .158Partial autocorr. order 3 .007 -.018 .058
Variance from autoregression 41.8 pct 37.3 pctError variance .007677 .007723Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) 1.006
Common interval 1692 to 1975 (284 years) 15 trees, 26 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .455 .408Between trees (Y variance) .442 .397Within trees .722 .636
Signal -to -noise ratio 11.88 9.89Agreement with pop. chron. .922 .908Variance in eigenvector 1 47.26 pct 42.94 pctChron. common interval mean .998 .997Chron. common interval st dev .270 .213
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ARSTAN chronology for Site 14, Dalton Reservoir, California, Pinus
Site name: JACKSON MOUNTAINSSpecies collected: WESTERN JUNIPER, Juniperus occidentalisCountry: U.S.A. State: NEVADA County: HUMBOLDTAdministration: BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENTMap reference: USGS 15' series, Bottle Creek, NV 1961Elevation: 2024 -2170 m Latitude: 41° 18'N Longitude: 118° 26'WNo. of trees sampled: 43 No. of core samples: 113Date of collection: JUN 1985 Collectors: RLH, RKA, VCK, CJE
Site description:
The Jackson Mountains, which constitute the eastern boundary of the Black RockDesert, are in the northwestern corner of Nevada, 80 km (50 mi) in a straight linenorthwest of Winnemucca. By road, U.S. Highway 95 north, State Highway 140 west,Leonard Creek Road south and Jackson Creek Ranch Road south, it is over 120 km (75 mi)to the Jackson Mountains site area. Jackson Creek Ranch Road, which parallels thenorth -south trend of. the Jackson Mountain Range along the west side of the mountains,has a spur road that follows Jackson Creek into the Jackson Mountains. On the westside of the summit near the road crest, a side road heads north to three abandonedmines. The sampled stand, consisting solely of western juniper, is both above andbelow this road. Though mostly very open, in some locales there are dense clusters oftrees. Most of the trees are on moderately steep (12° to 35 °) slopes and cliffs.Bedrock consists mainly of shales, with interbedded conglomerates, quartzites andsandstones. Most of the soils are thin (10 to 20 cm) in all but the shale bedrock. In
the shale /clay locations soil may be over 100 cm deep. The sampled trees range from 3to 10 m in height and 45 to 295 cm in diameter. Sagebrush (Artemisia spp), gooseberry(Ribes spp), lupines (Lupinus spp), composites and grasses comprise the understory.There are three running water draws that support riparian vegetation in the bottoms,but most of the slope areas are dry and well drained. There are many limbed trees andtree stumps, perhaps due to activity at the nearby mines. A few of the trees alsoexhibit fire scars. Both the historic period, with cabin foundations, roads and trashpiles, and the prehistoric period, with obsidian and chert artifacts are represented atthe site.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSJACKSON MOUNTAINS, IDAHO [JUOC]
Chronology 1267 to 1984 (718 years) 29 trees, 72 radii
Autocorrelation order 1 .283 .010 .276Partial autocorr. order 2 .050 .002 .049Partial autocorr. order 3 .036 -.017 -.003
Variance from autoregression 8.9 pct 8.1 pctError variance .006784 .005502Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .811
Common interval 1758 to 1981 (224 years) 24 trees, 37 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .398 .447
Between trees (Y variance) .389 .436Within trees .700 .760
Signal -to -noise ratio 15.29 18.58Agreement with pop. chron. .939 .949Variance in eigenvector 1 41.47 pct 45.68 pctChron. common interval mean .993 .997Chron. common interval st dev .253 .231 115
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Site name: LIKELY MOUNTAINSpecies collected: JEFFREY PINE, Pinus jeffreyi
WESTERN JUNIPER, Juniperus occidentalisCountry: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: LASSENAdministration: MODOC NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 15' series, Likely, CA 1962Elevation: 1744 -1878 m. Latitude: 41° 09'N Longitude: 1200 34'WNo. of trees sampled: PIJE 15 No. of core samples: PIJE 31
JUOC 1 JUOC 2
Date of collection: JUL 1981 Collectors: RLH, RKA, KL
Site description:
The small town of Likely is in the northeast corner of California on U.S. Highway395. The old volcanic cone of Likely Mountain, shown on some maps as South ForkMountain, is 8.8 km (5.5 mi) south of the town of Likely. The mountain is 4 km (2.5mi) west of U.S. Highway 395. Two subsite areas were sampled, one on the southeastflank of Likely Mountain and the other on the southwest side of an igneous basalt ridgejust northeast of Likely Mountain. Subsite area 1 consists of six trees on a flattopped ridge with a thin aeolian and colluvial soil. There is evidence of a recentforest fire in parts of the area. Another subsite has ten. sampled trees on a steepslope (12 to 28°) of basalt boulder -cobble colluvium. This area has evidence of forestfire and human disturbance such as an old roadbed and some stumps. The sampled treesrange from 9 to 20 m in height and 60 to 155 cm in diameter. Both pine and juniper areregenerating strongly; the mature trees occur as scattered individuals. Mountainmahogany (Cercocarpus spp), gooseberry (Ribes spp), sagebrush (Artemisia spp) and manygrasses compose a dense understory.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSLIKELY MOUNTAIN, CALIFORNIA [PIJE]Chronology 1653 to 1980 (328 years) 14 trees, 27 radii
Autocorrelation order 1 .476 .005 .503Partial autocorr. order 2 .239 .036 .250Partial autocorr. order 3 .024 -.024 .038
Variance from autoregression 26.7 pct 29.6 pctError variance .003768 .003950Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN / STNDRD) 1.048
Common interval 1859 to 1980 (122 years) 13 trees, 22 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .567 .547Between trees (Y variance) .555 .538Within trees .785 .735
Signal -to -noise ratio 16.25 15.14Agreement with pop. chron. .942 .938Variance in eigenvector 1 58.12 pet 56.50 pctChron. common interval mean 1.010 1.005Chron. common interval st dev .289 .230
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PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSLIKELY MOUNTAIN, CALIFORNIA [PIJE] RING WIDTHS FROM DENSITOMETRYChronology 1700 to 1980 (281 years) 8 trees, 16 radii
Autocorrelation order 1 .464 -.025 .532Partial autocorr. order 2 .202 -.024 .254Partial autocorr. order 3 -.018 .048 .004
Variance from autoregression 34.6 pct 42.3 pctError variance .007127 .008205Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) 1.151
Common interval 1857 to 1979 (123 years) 8 trees, 16 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .589 .525Between trees (Y variance) .573 .512Within trees .769 .680
Signal -to -noise ratio 10.72 8.39Agreement with pop. chron. .915 .893Variance in eigenvector 1 60.82 pct 55.16 pctChron. common interval mean 1.005 1.009Chron. common interval st dev .280 .219
Country: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: PLUMASAdministration: PLUMAS NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 7.5' series, Antelope Lake, CA 1978
Kettle Rock, CA 1978Genesee Valley, CA 1972
Elevation: 1366 -1561 m Latitude: 40° 09'N Longitude: 120° 36'WNo. of trees sampled: PIJE 26 No. of core samples: PIJE 57
PIPO 15 PIPO 33
PSME 2 PSME 3
Date of collection: JUL 1981 Collectors: RLH, RKA, SB
Site description:
Antelope Lake is a reservoir from damming Indian Creek and several other smalltributaries of the Feather River. It is 37 km (23 mi) northeast of the small villageof Taylorsville on Forest Road 29N43. The site includes four subsite areas whichborder this forest road and are from 1.6 km (1 mi) to 14.4 km (9 mi) southwest of thedam. All of the subsite areas are similar. The bedrock granite, characteristic of theSierra Nevada mountain range, has been weathered to a depth of 5 to 50 cm. The ridgesand slopes have thin soil while the benches, gully bottoms and flat areas haveconsiderably more. Slopes vary from 3° to 32° with a few of the sampled trees on theedges of short drops. Slopes face from northeast to southeast. The sampled treesrange from 12 to 26 m in height and 51 to 146 cm in diameter. The stand density varieswith both slope angle and slope aspect: east and south facing steep slopes are open.The flatter areas and the north and northeast slopes have dense mixed conifer forestsof ponderosa pine, Jeffrey pine, Douglas -fir, white fir (Abies concolor) and incensecedar (Libocedrus decurrens). All conifers appear healthy and all are regenerating.Several species of tree form and shrub form oaks (Quercus spp) are abundant. Barberry(Berberis spp), manzanita (Arctostaphylos spp), shepherd's bane (Chamabatia spp), manyspecies of composites, grasses, legumes and mustards indicate that the site is mesic.There is disturbance by logging, bulldozed roads and fires.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSANTELOPE LAKE, CALIFORNIA [PIJE]Chronology 1471 to 1980 (510 years) 25 trees, 56 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 3) ARSTANMean 1.000 .998 1.002Median 1.013 1.006 1.020Mean sensitivity .145 .170 .140
Partial autocorr. order 2 .140 -.005 .168Partial autocorr. order 3 ,102 .004 .075
Variance Erom autoregression 34.2 pct 41.7 pctError variance .004018 .003818Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .950
Common interval 1727 to 1980 (254 years) 22 trees, 34 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .348 .315Between trees (Y variance) .340 .309
Within trees .615 .522
Signal -to -noise ratio 11.32 9.83
Agreement with pop. chron. .919 .908
Variance in eigenvector 1 36.74 pct 33.60 pctChron. common interval mean .992 .998
Chron. common interval st dev .194 .143127
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Common interval 1703 to 1975 (273 years) 11 trees, 24 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .396 .362Between trees (Y variance) .376 .350
Within trees .606 .507
Signal -to -noise ratio 6.63 5.91Agreement with pop. chron. .869 .855
Variance in eigenvector 1 41.89 pct 38.85 pctChron. common interval mean 1.007 1.002Chron. common interval st dev .215 .170
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Site name: BLUE BANKSSpecies collected: JEFFREY PINE,Pinus jeffreyi
INCENSE CEDAR, Libocedrus decurrensCountry: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: MENDOCINOAdministration: MENDOCINO NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 7.5' series, Plaskett Ridge, CA 1967Elevation: 1537 -1659 m Latitude: 39° 40'N Longitude: 122° 58'WNo. of trees sampled: PIJE 29 No. of core samples: PIJE 65
LIDE 1 LIDE 2
Date of collection: JUL 1981 Collectors: RLH, RKA, LOW, KL
Site description:
The name "Blue Banks" derives from the metamorphic serpentine bedrock which rangesin color from a light robins' egg blue to a very dark green. Access to Blue Banks inthe northern Coast Ranges of California is through Elk Creek west southwest 43.2 km (27mi). Elk Creek is 33.6 km (21 mi) west of Willows on State Highway 162. There isalmost no soil on Blue Banks, some colluvial- alluvial soil in the gully bottoms andoutwash flats, and igneous bedrock outcrops nearby with more soil. The majority of thesampled Jeffrey pine are on fairly steep (15° to 35 °) northeast, east and southeastfacing serpentine slopes. A few sampled trees are in flat locations. The height ofsampled trees is 6 to 22 m, and diameter ranges from 46 to 170 cm. The stand is veryopen on the serpentine bedrock ridge, but denser in areas of less serpentine. Thereare sugar pine (Pinus lambertiana), red fir (Abies magnifica) and incense cedar exceptin the pure serpentine outcrops. Some oaks (Quercus spp), manzanita (Arctostaphylosspp) and buck brush (Ceanothus spp) comprise the understory. In addition, there arenative and non -native grasses, buckwheats (Eriogonum spp), some lupines (Lupinus spp)and composites.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSBLUE BANKS, CALIFORNIA [PIJE]Chronology 1318 to 1980 (663 years) 24 trees, 57 radii
Autocorrelation order 1 .449 -.001 .448Partial autocorr. order 2 .178 -.008 .155Partial autocorr. order 3 .102 -.062 .145
Variance from autoregression 19.5 pct 15.9 pctError variance .005447 .004417Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .811
Common interval 1656 to 1926 (271 years) 16 trees, 30 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .299 .343Between trees (Y variance) .285 .334Within trees .553 .508
Signal -to -noise ratio 6.38 8.03Agreement with pop. chron. .865 .889Variance in eigenvector 1 32.55 pct 36.74 pctChron. common interval mean 1.008 1.004Chron. common interval st dev .168 .149
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Site name: HELLS HALF ACRESpecies collected: JEFFREY PINE, Pinus jeffreyiCountry: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: MENDOCINOAdministration: MENDOCINO NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 7.5' series, Hull Mountain, CA 1967Elevation: 1890 -1954 m Latitude: 39° 36'N Longitude: 122° 57'WNo. of trees sampled: 13 No. of core samples: 28Date of collection: JUL 1981 Collectors: RLH, RKA, LOW, KL
Site description:
Hell's Half Acre is a small 2.5 square km (1 square mi) meadow area in the CoastRange of northern California near the headwaters of the Eel River. It is 35.2 km (22mi) west of the village of Elk Creek, which is 33.6 km (21 mi) west of Willows on StateHighway 162. In this meadow area four subsites were sampled. There is very littleslope at any subsite, and the slope is a maximum of 150 and south facing in a fewlocations. Bedrock where exposed is a metamorphic schist in three areas and igneous inone. The site is in a colluvial situation with over 40 cm of soil. The sampled treesrange from 9 to 16 m in height and 73 to 135 cm in diameter. In the exposedmetamorphic schist the stand is open. Off the bedrock, the stand is a closed mixedconifer forest of Jeffrey pine, sugar pine ( Pinus lambertiana) and red fir (Abiesmagnifica). The understory is buck brush (Ceanothus spp), manzanita (Arctostaphylosspp) and in some locations willow (Salix spp). All of the subsite areas show evidenceof fire and logging.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSHELLS HALF ACRE, CALIFORNIA [PIJE]
Chronology 1497 to 1980 (484 years) 13 trees, 30 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 3) ARSTANMean 1.000 1.000 1.004Median .982 .995 .991
Partial autocorr. order 2 .069 -.047 -.037Partial autocorr. order 3 .131 -.026 .154
Variance from autoregression 13.9 pct 6.5 pctError variance .003867 .002770Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .716
Common interval 1682 to 1948 (267 years) 10 trees, 19 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .288 .366Between trees (Y variance) .270 .352Within trees .541 .564
Signal -to -noise ratio 3.70 5.44Agreement with pop. chron. .787 .845
Variance in eigenvector 1 32.52 pct 39.93 pctChron. common interval mean 1.000 1.000Chron. common interval st dev .161 .155
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Site name: SUMMIT SPRINGS HILLSpecies collected: PONDEROSA PINE, Pinus ponderosa
SUGAR PINE, Pinus lambertianaCountry: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: GLENNAdministration: MENDOCINO NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 7.5' series, Felkner Hill, CA 1968Elevation: 1756 -1811 m Latitude: 39° 36'N Longitude: 122° 44'W
No. of trees sampled: PIPO 14 No. of core samples: PIPO 27
PILA 1 PILA 2
Date of collection: JUL 1981 Collectors: RLH, RKA, LOW
Site -description:
Summit Springs Hill in the Coast Range of northern California is 17.6 km (11 mi)west northwest of the village of Elk Creek. Elk Creek is 33.6 km (21 mi) northwest of
the town of Willows on State Highway 162. The sampled trees range from 5 to 18 m inheight and 45 to 106 cm in diameter, and are on the southwestern ridge and flank ofSummit Springs Hill. The south southwest to east facing 10° to 30° slopes have very
little soil accumulation. Bedrock is a metamorphic mix of schists and greenstone. Theopen overstory is a combination of ponderosa pine and sugar pine. The limited, openunderstory of buck brush (Ceanothus spp), manzanita (Arctostaphylos spp) and some oaks(Quercus spp) is in completion with many young conifers. According to a localforester, a quarry operation in 1974 removed large amounts of rock and soil from thesouth southeast section of Summit Springs Hill. A large bare scar is still veryprominent. The forester also said the area has been logged at least twice, in 1950 -52and in 1977. Many large stumps were observed, and there is evidence of forest fires.The large amount of disturbance may have caused the stand to be open.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSSUMMIT SPRINGS HILL, CALIFORNIA [PIPO]Chronology 1582 to 1980 (399 years) 12 trees, 26 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 3) ARSTANMean 1.000 .999 .996
Median .993 .993 .987
Mean sensitivity .150 .165 .151
Standard deviation .166 .144 .162
Skewness .104 .238 .190
Kurtosis 3.480 3.124 3.518
Autocorrelation order 1 .351 -.006 .299
Partial autocorr. order 2 .181 .011 .154
Partial autocorr. order 3 .109 -.082 .032
Variance Erom autoregression 17.5 pct 13.4 pct
Error variance .005278 .003627Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .6872
Common interval 1686 to 1830 (145 years) 9 trees, 19 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .241 .294
Between trees (Y variance) .212 .275
Within trees .496 .465
Signal -to -noise ratio 2.42 3.42
Agreement with pop. chron. .707 .774
Variance in eigenvector 1 29.50 pct 33.75 pctChron. common interval mean 1.006 .997
Site name: LEMON CANYONSpecies collected: JEFFREY PINE, Pinus jeffreyi
SUGAR PINE, Pinus lambertianaCountry: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: SIERRAAdministration: TAHOE NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 15' series, Sierraville, CA 1955
USGS 15' series, Loyalton, CA 1955Elevation: 1707 -2012 m Latitude: 39° 34'N Longitude: 120° 15'WNo. of trees sampled: PIJE 35 No. of core samples: PIJE 70
PILA 1 PILA 1
Date of collection: JUL 1981 Collectors: RLH, RKA, SB, MRR, RR
Site description:
The mouth of Lemon Canyon is 4 km (2.5 mi) east southeast of the village ofSierraville in eastern California, near the California- Nevada border 32 km (20 mi) westof Reno, Nevada. The site consists of four subsites over 3.8 km (2 mi) along LemonCanyon Road east of the mouth of Lemon Canyon and west of the intersection ofCottonwood Road, and a fifth subsite in Dark Canyon 3.8 km (2 mi) north of LemonCanyon. The bedrock geology of all the subsites is an igneous mixture of lightlyweathered basalts, andesites, latites and dacites. In several locations there areunconsolidated ashy materials in colluvial and alluvial outwashes. The majority of thesampled trees are on moderately to fairly steep (14° to 32 °) southwest and west facingslopes and ridge crests. Soil in most subsites is very thin except in the ashy outwashcolluvial -alluvial locations where soil depth is over 50 cm. The stand density isopen; the crowns of the older trees do not touch. This may be a reflection of loggingand fires as cut stumps of large trees can be seen in every area. This is particularlyevident in Dark Canyon where many trees show long scorch marks and there are largelogged areas. Vigorous young trees are replacing the logged and burned out trees.This is a mixed conifer forest with Jeffrey pine, sugar pine, red fir (Abiesmagnifica), western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis) and incense cedar (Libocedrusdecurrens). The understory consists of sagebrush (Artemisia spp), bitter brush(Purshia spp), mountain mahogany (Cercocarpus spp), manzanita (Arctostaphylos spp),barberry (Berberís spp), several composites and some varieties of grasses.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSLEMON CANYON, CALIFORNIA [PIJE]Chronology 1415 to 1980 (566 years) 34 trees, 64 radii
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Site name: FELKNER RIDGESpecies collected: SUGAR PINE, Pinus lambertianaCountry: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: GLENNAdministration: MENDOCINO NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 7.5' series, Felkner Hill, CA 1968Elevation: 1433 -1555 m Latitude: 39° 30'N Longitude: 122° 40'WNo. of trees sampled: 35 No. of core samples: 56Date of collection: NOV 1977 Collector: LOW
Site description:
This site was collected, dated and measured by Lester O. White, retired foresterof the Mendocino National Forest, who contributed the measurements to the Laboratory ofTree -Ring Research. Samples were examined and dating verified by project personnel.The site is in the northern Coast Range of California, on a northwest to southeasttrending ridge that parallels Ponderosa Way, a forest road above Briscoe Creek 16 km(10 mi) southwest of the village of Elk Creek. The gravelly loam soils are derivedfrom sedimentary rocks of the Great Valley sequence. The sampled flat ridge top waslogged in 1967 and most of the samples are v -cuts from the stumps of the old growthsugar pine which appears to have been in an open stand. Associated tree species areponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), knobcone pine (Pinus attenuata), incense cedar(Libocedrus decurrens), Douglas -fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and understory of oaks(Quercus spp), mountain mahogany (Cercocarßus spp), buck brush (Ceanothus spp) andmanzanita (Arctostaphylos spp).
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSFELKNER RIDGE, CALIFORNIA [PILA]Chronology 1543 to 1980 (438 years) 28 trees, 56 radii
Autocorrelation order 1 .538 -.016 .413Partial autocorr. order 2 .260 -.044 .217Partial autocorr. order 3 .110 -.011 .104
Variance from autoregression 19.2 pct 11.8 pctError variance .003950 .002934Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .743
Common interval 1825 to 1964 (140 years) 26 trees, 49 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .237 .367Between trees (Y variance) .229 .363Within trees .575 .561
Signal -to -noise ratio 7.73 14.81Agreement with pop. chron. .886 .937Variance in eigenvector 1 26.10 pct 38.20 pctChron. common interval mean 1.010 1.002Chron. common interval st dev .138 .126
145
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Site name: SAINT JOHN MOUNTAINSpecies collected: PONDEROSA PINE, Pinus ponderosa
SUGAR PINE, Pinus lambertianaCountry: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: GLENNAdministration: MENDOCINO NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 7.5' series, St. John Mountain, CA 1968Elevation: 1427 -1939 m Latitude: 39° 26'N Longitude: 122° 41'WNo. of trees sampled: PIPO 26 No. of core samples: PIPO 57
PILA 1 PILA 2
Date of collection: JUL 1981 Collectors: RLH, RKA, LW, KL
Site description:
Saint John Mountain is in the Coast Range of northern California, 40 km (25 mi)west southwest of the town of Willows. Access is through the small village ofStonyford, 11.2 km (7 mi) northwest to Saint John Mountain. The mountain separates theNorth Fork from the Middle Fork of Stony Creek. The three subsite areas, along theroad which climbs the southeast ridge of the mountain, have a bedrock base of meta -volcanic rocks. Two subsites are in relatively flat (2° to 15 °) locations along thesoutheast ridge crest of the mountain. Some sampled trees are on steep drops at themargins of the ridge. The subsites face northeast, east and southeast. In the flatterareas there is moderate accumulation of soil to a depth of 30 cm. At the ridge marginsthere is almost no soil. The sampled trees range from 6 to 19 m in height and 39 to 89cm in diameter. The dominant ponderosa pine is in open to semi -open stands. Sugarpine and red fir (Abies magnifica) are also present. At the higher elevations theunderstory is thin; at lower elevations ground cover consists of buck brush (Ceanothusspp), bitter brush (Purshia spp) and manzanita (Arctostaphylos spp). According to alocal forester, there is less disturbance by man here than at any other local timberstand. Many trees bear the scars of forest fires or signs of insect infestations.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSST. JOHN MOUNTAIN, CALIFORNIA [PIPO]
Chronology 1500 to 1980 (481 years) 25 trees, 55 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 3) ARSTANMean 1.000 1.000 1.001
Median .985 .989 .991
Mean sensitivity .158 .181 .166
Standard deviation .179 .160 .164
Skewness .517 .248 .395
Kurtosis 3.619 3.565 3.641
Autocorrelation order 1 .379 -.037 .170
Partial autocorr. order 2 .169 -.056 .095
Partial autocorr. order 3 .130 -.048 .129
Variance from autoregression 15.8 pct 4.4 pct
Error variance .007555 .004118Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .545
Common interval 1706 to 1974 (269 years) 17 trees, 31 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)
Among all radii .238 .290
Between trees (Y variance) .223 .280
Within trees .581 .528
Signal -to -noise ratio 4.88 6.62
Agreement with pop. chron. .830 .869
Variance in eigenvector 1 26.45 pct 31.43 pctChron. common interval mean 1.001 1.002
Site name: DONNER SUMMITSpecies collected: JEFFREY PINE, Pinus jeffreyi
WESTERN WHITE PINE, Pinus monticolaLODGEPOLE PINE, Pinus contorta
Country: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: NEVADAAdministration: TAHOE NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 7.5' series,Norden,CA 1955, Photo revised 1979Elevation: 2201 -2329 m Latitude: 39° 19'N Longitude: 120° 21'WNo. of trees sampled: PIJE 8 No. of core samples: PIJE 16
PIMT 2 PIMT 4
PICO 1 PICO 1
Date of collection: JUL 1981 Collectors: RLH, RKA, SB
Site description:
This is one of the highest sites collected on this project. The site is on thesouthwest end of Boreal Ridge 0.8 km (0.5 mi) southeast of U.S. Interstate 80 and 67.2km (42 mi) west of Reno, Nevada. Access to the site is through the ski areas on thenortheast side of Boreal Ridge or from the small village of Norden, 2.4 km (1.5 mi)west of Donner Pass Summit on the old U.S. Highway 40. Bedrock is an igneous basalt -andesite ridge. The soil is very thin, less than 10 cm, except on the colluvial slopeswhere it is nearly 30 cm thick. The sampled trees are from the edge of the southwestridge line with near vertical drops below them, and from the south and southeast facesof the steep (12° to 28 °) colluvial slopes. Sampled trees are 6 to 20 m in height and25 to 144 cm in diameter. This stand of mixed conifers, Jeffrey pine, western whitepine and lodgepole pine, is very open with considerable distance between mature trees.The understory is diverse, with sagebrush (Artemisia spp), lemonade berry (Rhustrilobata), bitter brush (Purshia spp), buckwheats (Eriogonum app), several compositesand many grasses. There is some evidence of human disturbance such as a few cut stumpsand old electric lines. The trees on this ridge experience long harsh winters, withvery deep snow and high winds, and several of the trees have been struck by lightning.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSDONNER SUMMIT, CALIFORNIA [PIJE]Chronology 1510 to 1980 (471 years) 6 trees, 11 radii
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Site name: SNOW WHITE RIDGESpecies collected: PONDEROSA PINE, Pinus ponderosa
JEFFREY PINE, Pinus jeffreyiCountry: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: TUOLUMNEAdministration: STANISLAUS NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 7.5' series, Strawberry, CA 1979Elevation: 1696 -1743 m Latitude: 38° 08'N Longitude: 120 °03'W
No. of trees sampled: PIPO 14 No. of core samples: PIPO 32PIJE 1 PIJE 2
Date of collection: SEP 1981 Collectors: RLH, RKA, LB
Site description:
The site is 5.6 km (3.5 mi) southwest of Strawberry on state Highway 108. All buttwo of the sampled trees are north of Highway 108, and the west end of the site isadjacent to Bald Mountain, on an igneous (pyroclastics) ridge that parallels Highway108. Soil depth is quite variable, ranging from 20 to 60 cm in some of the ashy,cindery areas. Slope angle varies from a few flat areas up to 25° in one location.The sampled trees range from 5 to 24 m in height and 25 to 129 cm in diameter. On themain part of the dry rocky ridge and down slope from the ridge crest for a shortdistance, the stand of trees is very open and the understory is sparse. Off the dryrocky ridge the forest is lush with many young trees and a dense understory. Whileponderosa pine and Jeffrey pine are the most prevalent conifers, sugar pine (Pinuslambertiana) and incense cedar (Libocedrus decurrens) are also present. The understoryconsists of buck brush (Ceanothus spp), manzanita (Arctostaphylos spp), mountainmahogany (Cercocarpus spp), some composites and native and non -native grasses. Beingclose to a major highway has contributed to the disturbance of the stand. Many treeshave been cut, and in one area an underground telephone cable may have caused rootdamage. Fire damage is also evident.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSSNOW WHITE RIDGE, CALIFORNIA (PIPO]Chronology 1557 to 1980 (424 years) 13 trees, 26 radii
Autocorrelation order 1 .313 .000 .318Partial autocorr. order 2 .201 -.020 .199Partial autocorr. order 3 .129 -.037 .101
Variance from autoregression 15.9 pct 15.3 pctError variance .005456 .004752Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .871
Common interval 1768 to 1980 (213 years) 9 trees, 16 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .407 .444Between trees (Y variance) .389 .427Within trees .649 .670
Signal. -to -noise ratio 5.73 6.71Agreement with pop. chron. .851 .870Variance in eigenvector 1 44.60 pct 47.90 pctChron. common interval mean 1.002 1.001Chron. common interval st dev .202 .179
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Figure A3-5. Ponderosa pine at Site 26, Snow \Vhite Ridge, California, 14 m tall and 72 cm in diameter, dating from AD 1570. Old age and open-growth conditions are indicated by long, large-diameter, and down-trending lower branches. In general, ponderosa pine is more responsive to drought and slightly longer-lived than Jeffrey pine.
157
TREE -RING COLLECTION SITE DDF Site no. 27
Site name: DEVILS DANCE FLOORSpecies collected: JEFFREY PINE, Pinus jeffreyiCountry: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: MARIPOSAAdministration: YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARKMap reference: USGS 15' series, Yosemite, CA 1956Elevation: 1951 -2084 m Latitude: 37° 45'N Longitude: 119° 45'WNo. of trees sampled: 17 No. of core samples: 37Date of collection: SEP 1981 Collectors: RLH, RKA, LB
Site description:
The site encompasses the top of a large granite dome called the Devil's DanceFloor, above Big Oak Flat Road. Access to the site is from Tamarack Flat Campground tothe south 1.2 km (0.8 mi). Being on the granite dome, the stand is very open with 20 to30 or more meters between trees. Soil on the dome is almost nonexistent except incracks and small catch basins. Slope angle varies from flat on the dome top tovertical at the dome margins. The dome environment leads to a stunted, wind flaggedappearance for many of the trees. Sampled tree sizes range from 3 to 19 m in heightand 48 to 161 cm in diameter. While being in the National Park has protected the treesfrom adverse affects by humans and by fires, their dome location has made the treesgood lightning rods and subjects them to wind. On the dome the trees are almostexclusively Jeffrey pine. Off the dome there is a dense mixed conifer forest of ofsugar pine (Pinus lambertiana), lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta), red fir (Abiesmagnifica) and white fir (Abies concolor) with a dense understory of several species ofmanzanita (Arctostaphylos spp), gooseberry (Ribes spp), wild rose (Rosa spp) andbarberry (Berberis spp). The view of the Yosemite Valley from this dome isspectacular.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSDEVILS DANCE FLOOR, CALIFORNIA [PIJE]Chronology 1441 to 1980
Autocorrelation order 1 .425 -.008 .329Partial autocorr. order 2 .091 -.051 -.012Partial autocorr. order 3 .115 .074 .114
Variance from autoregression 16.9 pct 10.3 pctError variance .005976 .003865Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .647
Common interval 1711 to 1935 (225 years) 10 trees, 21 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .247 .319Between trees (Y variance) .220 .300Within trees .574 .555
Signal -to -noise ratio 2.81 4.28Agreement with pop. chron. .738 .811Variance in eigenvector 1 28.97 pct 35.10 pctChron. common interval mean 1.011 1.007Chron. common interval st dev .162 .153
158
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Site name: KAISER PASSSpecies collected: WESTERN JUNIPER, Juniperus occidentalisCountry: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: FRESNOAdministration: SIERRA NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 15' series, Kaiser Peak, CA 1953Elevation: 2633 -2829 m Latitude: 37° 17'N Longitude: 119 °05'WNo. of trees sampled: 36 No. of core samples: 86Date of collection: JUL 1982 Collectors: RLH, RKA, MRR, SB
Site description:
Kaiser Pass, is 9.6 km (6 mi) east northeast of Huntington Lake, traversed by
State Highway 168. At an altitude of over 2600 m, this site, consisting of threesubsites, is the highest, most southerly western juniper site for this project. Thejuniper here is of the variety australis; all other western juniper sites sampled areof the variety occidentalis. Two subsítes are south of the summit of Kaiser Pass .2 km(.1 mi), while a third subsite is 2.4 km (1.5 mi) north of the Kaiser Pass summit.Bedrock is granite on very steep (15° to 40 °) west southwest to east southeast facingslopes with some vertical cliffs. Soil is derived from the weathered granite and isvery thin, less than 10 cm. Most of the trees in these very open stands are growing inbedrock cracks and very shallow catch basins. While the sampled western juniper is notparticularly tall, ranging from 5 to 17 m in height, trunks are massive, 60 to 296 cmin diameter, often with large multiple stem trunks and basal branches. On the openslopes, western juniper is the dominant tree. At breaks in slope such as cliff basesand outwashes, there are red fir (Abies magnifica), some Jeffrey pine (Pinus jeffreyi)and lodgepole pine ( Pinus contorts). The understory is an open mix of low oaks(Quercus spp), manzanita (Arctostaphylos spp), gooseberry (Ribes spp) and many wildflowers such as lupines (Lupinus spp), Indian paintbrushes (Castilleja spp), buckwheats(Eriogonum spp) and a variety of composites. Several of the western junipers exhibitlarge fire scars, and many appear to have heartrot. The stand is healthy and isregenerating.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSKAISER PASS, CALIFORNIA [JUOC]
Chronology 1140 to 1981 (842 years) 28 trees, 54 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 5) ARSTANMean 1.000 1.002 1.003Median .998 .989 .992
Variance from autoregression 23.6 pct 24.5 pctError variance .005854 .004229Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .722
Common interval 1795 to 1981 (187 years) 23 trees, 36 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)
Among all radii .350 .402
Between trees (Y variance) .342 .396
Within trees .629 .633
Signal -to -noise ratio 11.97 15.09Agreement with pop. chron. .923 .938
Variance in eigenvector 1 37.10 pct 41.88 pctChron. common interval mean 1.014 1.004Chron. common interval st dev .198 .156
161
162
Figure A3-6. Western juniper at Site 28, Kaiser Pass, California, with triple trunk and a common base. The trunks measure 103, 82 and 81 cm in diameter and the tree is 9 m tall. This tree is of the southern subspecies (australis), and dates from AD 1587.
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Country: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: FRESNOAdministration: SIERRA NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 15' series, Shaver Lake, CA 1953
Shuteye Peak, CA 1953Elevation: 1774 -1902 m Latitude: 37° 15'N Longitude: 119° 16'WNo. of trees sampled: PIPO 34 No. of core samples: PIPO 74
PIJE 1 PIJE 3
LIDE 1 LIDE 2
Dates of collection: OCT 1980 and JUL 1982Collectors: RLH, RKA, MRR, SB, TPH, ASM
Site description:
Black Creek is one of many short tributary creeks of the San Joaquin River in theSierra National Forest of eastern California. It is 5.6 km (3.5 mi) northwest of thevillage of Big Creek and 7.2 km (4.5 mi) west of Huntington Lake on the Stump SpringsRoad. The moderately deep (10 to 50 cm) sandy soil derived from Sierra Nevada graniteis on steep (10° to 30 °) colluvial slopes. The predominant slope direction for allfour subsites is west. The sampled trees range from 12 to 25 m in height and 83 to 129cm in diameter, and though the forest is open, this is a result of logging. There isalso evidence of forest fires in some of the subsites. Some trees have mechanicalscars such as bulldozer scrapes. The fairly dense, mixed conifer forest of ponderosapine, Jeffrey pine, sugar pine (Pinus lambertiana), Douglas -fir (Pseudotsugamenziesii), white fir (Abies concolor) and incense cedar, along with the diverseunderstory of oaks (Quercus spp), manzanita (Arctostaphylos spp), buck brush (Ceanothusspp), many wildflowers, lupines (Lupinus spp), mariposa tulips (Calochortus spp) andcomposites, attests to the mesic nature of this site location. Core samples taken inOctober 1980 were combined with those taken in July 1982.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSBLACK CREEK, CALIFORNIA [PIPO]
Chronology 1527 to 1981 (455 years) 33 trees, 67 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 3) ARSTANMean 1.000 1.000 1.000Median .978 .988 .975
Mean sensitivity .148 .174 .143
Standard deviation .202 .165 .210
Skewness .405 .338 .350
Kurtosis 3.439 3.693 3.407
Autocorrelation order 1 .532 .037 .610
Partial autocorr. order 2 .162 .006 .064
Partial autocorr. order 3 .055 -.019 .034
Variance from autoregression 31.8 pct 37.4 pct
Error variance .003007 .003162Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) 1.0514
Common interval 1700 to 1925 (226 years) 16 trees, 30 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .354 .345Between trees (Y variance) .341 .334
Within trees .613 .562
Signal -to -noise ratio 8.28 8.04
Agreement with pop. chron. .892 .889
Variance in eigenvector 1 37.80 pet 36.57 pctChron. common interval mean 1.005 1.003
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Site name: BUENAVISTASpecies collected: JEFFREY PINE, Pinus jeffreyiCountry: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: TULAREAdministration: SEQUOIA NATIONAL FOREST and
SEQUOIA and KINGS CANYON NATIONAL PARKSMap reference: USGS 15' series, Giant Forest, CA 1956Elevation: 2146 -2414 m Latitude: 36° 43'N Longitude: 118° 55'WNo. of trees sampled: 50 No. of core samples: 107Date of collection: JUL 1982 Collectors: RLH, RKA, MRR, TW
Site description:
Buenavista Peak, in east central California, for which this series of six subsiteareas is named, lies inside the boundary of Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parksalong the Generals' Highway (State Highway 180) at the north end of the Parks, andState Highway 198 at the south end. One subsite is located on the northwest flank ofBuenavista Peak inside the Parks boundary; all other subsites are on Sequoia NationalForest lands. Bedrock consists of granite in either a rock pile, ridge or dome. Soil
accumulation is minimal in the rock pile and dome locations. On the ridge there issandy soil over 30 cm thick. Three subsites are on steep slopes (18° to 33 °) withvertical dropoffs. Three others are less steep (8° to 18 °) with a few flat locations.Slope directions are variable. The sampled trees range from 6 to 18 m in height and 63to 147 cm in diameter. No subsite area has escaped unscathed by fire. Every area butone exhibits some indications of logging operations. In one subsite logging activitiesappear to be within the last 5 to 10 years. Given the altitude of over 2100 m and thepresence within 1 mi of three subsites of Sierra sequoia (Sequoiadendron giganteum), amore moisture -dependent species, it would be expected that this area would be a densemixed conifer and deciduous forest. There are Jeffrey pine, sugar pine (Pinuslambertiana), lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta), red fir (Abies magnifica) and white fir(Abies concolor), along with several species of oaks (Quercus spp), ashes (Fraxinusspp) and maples (Acer spp). The understory is also diverse and fairly dense except onthe domes. Manzanita (Arctostaphylos spp) is the dominant shrub, but gooseberry (Ribesspp), buck brush (Ceanothus spp), bitter
as lupines
- CHRONOLOGY
brush (Purshia spp) and several other shrubs(Penstemon spp)are present. Wild flowers such
and composites are abundant.
PROGRAM ARSTANBUENAVISTA, CALIFORNIA [PIJE]
Chronology 1434 to 1981 (548 years)
(Lupinus spp), penstemons
STATISTICS
38 trees, 62 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 3) ARSTAN
Mean 1.000 1.000 1.000
Median .981 .997 .996
Mean sensitivity .141 .168 .143
Standard deviation .167 .147 .153
Skewness .323 .178 .268
Kurtosis 3.214 3.471 3.136
Autocorrelation order 1 .447 -.059 .299
Partial autocorr. order 2 .151 -.035 .052
Partial autocorr. order 3 .090 -.068 .016
Variance from autoregression 18.8 pct 8.9 pct
Error variance .005024 .003468Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .690
Common interval 1703 to 1958 (256 years) 35 trees, 54 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .315 .397
Between trees (Y variance) .311 .394
Within trees .572 .577
Signal -to -noise ratio 15.79 22.79
Agreement with pop. chron. .940 .958
Variance in eigenvector 1 33.25 pct 41.03 pctChron. common interval mean .997 1.000
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Site name: KENNEDY MEADOWSSpecies collected: JEFFREY PINE, Pinus jeffreyi
PINYON PINE, Pinus monophyllaCountry: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: TULAREAdministration: SEQUOIA NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 15' series, Monache Mountain, CA 1956Elevation: 1902 -2146 m Latitude: 36° 02'N Longitude: 118° 11'W
No. of trees sampled: PIJE 29 No. of core samples: PIJE 58PIMO 2 PIMO 4
Date of collection: JUL 1982 Collectors: RLH, RKA, MRR
Site description:
Kennedy Meadows is a 40 square km (16 square mi) open meadow land along the eastside of the central portion of Sequoia National Forest in southeastern California, westof the south end of the Owens Valley. It is accessible from U.S. Highway 395, 41 km(25.5 mi) south southwest along Forest Road 23S03. It can also be reached from thewest or Kern River side via Forest Roads 22S05 and 21S02 about the same distance. The
site collection is from three subsites from 0.8 km (0.5 mi) to 4 km (2.5 mi) west ofKennedy Meadows. Soil is thin, less than 30 cm, on a bedrock base of granite bouldersand outcrops on steep (12° to 35 °) slopes and ridges trending north to south. The
sampled Jeffrey pine ranges from 11 to 24 m in height and 59 to 128 cm in diameter.The two sampled single- needle pinyon pine are 9 and 10 m tall and 65 and 75 cm in
diameter. On the ridges and rock piles the stands tend to be open, while off the rocks
and ridges the forest is fairly dense. In the lower subsite, single -needle pinyon is
the dominant tree species. In other subsites, Jeffrey pine is dominant or co- dominant
with pinyon. Juniper (Juniperus spp), oaks (Quercus spp) and several other shrubs such
as sagebrush (Artemisia spp), mountain mahogany (Cercocarpus spp), manzanita(Arctostaphylos spp) and rabbit brush (Chrysothamnus spp) comprise the understory. An
indicator of the xeric nature of this site is the presence of prickly pear cactus(Opuntia spp). Several archaeological artifacts were photographed.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSKENNEDY MEADOWS, CALIFORNIA [PIJE]
Chronology 1607 to 1981 (375 years) 29 trees, 58 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 3) ARSTAN
Mean 1.000 1.000 1.002
Median 1.022 1.048 1.031
Mean sensitivity .401 .461 .404
Standard deviation .409 .361 .411
Skewness -.141 -.607 -.217
Kurtosis 2.456 2.945 2.536
Autocorrelation order 1 .446 .010 .452
Partial autocorr. order 2 .107 -.021 .071
Partial autocorr. order 3 -.102 -.066 -.180
Variance from autoregression 21.8 pct 23.5 pct
Error variance .007073 .004267
Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .603
Common interval 1732 to 1976 (245 years) 26 trees, 44 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
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Site name: PIUTE MOUNTAINSpecies collected: JEFFREY PINE, Pinus jeffreyi,
PONDEROSA PINE, Pinus ponderosaCountry: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: KERNAdministration: SEQUOIA NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 7.5' series, Lake Isabella South, CA 1972Elevation: 1951 -2012 m Latitude: 35° 32'N Longitude: 118° 26'WNo. of trees sampled: PIJE 12 No. of core samples: PIJE 26
PIPO 10 PIPO 20
Date of collection: JUL 1982 Collectors: RLH, RKA, MRR
Site description:
The Piute Mountains are in south central California in the southernmost portion ofSequoia National Forest south of Isabella Lake. The four collected subsite areas arescattered for 1.6 km (1 mi) along the Saddle Springs Road (Forest Road 27S02) betweenStudebaker Flat and the Valley View Mine. Access is from State Highway 178 through thevillage of Bodfish, then south 2.4 km (1.5 mi) to Ball Mountain and southeast on SaddleSprings Road past Bald Eagle Peak. The Saddle Springs Road parallels a northwest tosoutheast trending granite ridge. There are a few granite rock piles, but most of thegranite is weathered into 1 to 2 m of deep sandy soil on moderate to steep (8° to 22 °)northwest, northeast and southeast facing slopes. The sampled trees range from 8 to 20m in height and from 54 to 122 cm in diameter. The overstory of mixed conifers Jeffreypine, ponderosa pine, sugar pine (Pinus lambertiana) and white fir (Abies concolor) isfairly dense with open areas due to forest fires or logging. The understory is densewith oaks (Quercus spp), manzanita (Arctostaphylos spp), buckbrush (Ceanothus spp) andsome sagebrush (Artemisia spp). There is also some yucca (Yucca spp) which is anindicator of moderately xeric conditions.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSPIUTE MOUNTAIN, CALIFORNIA [PIJE, PIPO]Chronology 1528 to 1981 (454 years) 22 trees, 48 radii
Site name: SORREL PEAKSpecies collected: JEFFREY PINE, Pinus jeffreyiCountry: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: KERNAdministration: SEQUOIA NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 7.5' series, Claraville, CA 1972Elevation: 1975 -2256 m Latitude: 35° 26'N Longitude: 118° 17'W
No. of trees sampled: 25 No. of core samples: 48Date of collection: JUL 1982 Collectors: RLH, MRR, RKA
Site description:
Sorrel Peak is in the Piute Mountains at the eastern boundary of the southernmostsection of Sequoia National Forest in south central California. The sampled trees arefrom three subsites accessible from Piute Mountain Road (Forest Road 28S01). Two areasare on the northwest end of St. John Ridge, 1.2 km (0.8 mi) northeast of Lander Meadow.The sampled trees are on a north- facing very steep (26° to 35 °) colluvial slope. Theopen stand of Jeffrey pine is growing in 1 to 2 m of weathered granitic sands below thebreak in slope of the St. John Ridge cliff face. In two areas, there are single -needlepinyon (Pinus monophylla), and the understory consists of scattered oaks (Quercus spp),sagebrush (Artemisia spp) and rabbit brush (Chrysothamnus spp). A third subsite areais 3.2 km (2 mi) south of Lander Meadow on the northwest flank of Sorrel Peak justabove an abandoned mine shaft. The west- facing slopes here are moderate to steep (18°to 30 °) with vertical dropoffs. Deep granitic sands, bedrock outcrops and rock pilescover the site, and the stand is somewhat denser. There are signs of recent logging.Some trees show fire scars and several have insect damage. Associated species includewhite fir (Abies concolor), manzanita (Arctostaphylos spp) and varieties of oak(Quercus spp). The sampled trees range from 8 to 20 m in height and from 44 to 96 cmin diameter.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSSORREL PEAK, CALIFORNIA (PIJE]Chronology 1505 to 1981 (477 years) 25 trees, 46 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 3) ARSTAN
Mean 1.000 1.000 .999
Median 1.030 1.044 1.031
Mean sensitivity .291 .332 .294
Standard deviation .314 .278 .304
Skewness -.257 -.751 -.428
Kurtosis 2.856 3.745 3.061
Autocorrelation order 1 .418 .006 .379
Partial autocorr. order 2 .150 -.028 .112
Partial autocorr. order 3 -.056 -.078 -.142
Variance from autoregression 18.9 pct 16.5 pct
Error variance .004615 .003485Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .755
Common interval 1692 to 1947 (256 years) 21 trees, 32 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)
Among all radii .621 .649
Between trees (Y variance) .616 .645
Within trees .807 .791
Signal -to -noise ratio 33.69 38.18
Agreement with pop. chron. .971 .974
Variance in eigenvector 1 62.78 pct 65.62 pct
Chron. common interval mean 1.022 1.011
Chron. common interval st dev .320 .288
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Figure A3 -8.
ARSTAN chronology for Site 33, Sorrel Peak, California, Pinus ffreyi.
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