Lisa Rayle Graduate Student Dept. Urban Studies & Planning MIT [email protected]1 Madhav Pai Technical Director - India EMBARQ, WRI Center for Sustainable Transport [email protected]January 11, 2010 TRB Annual Meeting Urban Mobility Forecasts: Emissions Scenarios for Three Indian Cities
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Urban Mobility Forecasts: Emissions Scenarios for Three Indian Cities
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Overview
• Magnitude of future emissions is very uncertain
• Purpose is to illustrate how transport and land use planning policies could influence GHG emissions at the city level
• Estimates future emissions from urban travel under various policy scenarios for Ahmedabad, Mumbai, and Surat
• Uses newly available household travel data
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Existing research on future transport emissions in India
• Studies of national level (Schipper et al. 2009, Singh 2006)
• City-level studies based on correlations with population and income growth (Bose & Nesamani 2000), vehicle numbers (Das & Parikh 2004), travel characteristics (Fabian & Gota 2009).
• Very few city-level studies based on travel behavior.
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Mumbai Ahmedabad SuratPopulation (2001)
17.7 million 5.4 million 2.4 million
Decadal growth rate
32% 30% 62%
Urban growth • Established major metropolitan area.• Growth continues despite space limitations.
• Fifth largest city in India; typical of large cities. • Growth lower than previous decades, but still significant.
• Huge recent growth; high in-migration rate. • Typical of “now exploding” cities.
• more road space devoted to cars• investment in public transport is low priority• greater car travel at expense of other modes• extreme congestion, but alternatives to driving
unattractive10
Automobility Ubiquity
Scenario 2
• increased household wealth• policies to encourage small vehicles (e.g.
designation of road space, economic incentives)• investment in public transport is low priority• two-wheel vehicles dominate
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Two-Wheeler World
Scenario 3
• increased household wealth• policies prioritize public transport, walking, and
cycling– investment in public transit– street design promotes non-motorized modes
• coordinated land use planning• increase in transit ridership, stabilization of
motorized share12
Sustainable Urban Transport
Assumed mode share for each scenario, 2040 – Surat
Mode CurrentAutomobility
Ubiquity
Two-Wheeler World
Sustainable Urban
Transport
Walk 42.0 22 18 20
Bicycle 13.4 6 2 15
Auto-rickshaw 10.8 8 5 5
Motorcycle 28.4 12 50 8
Bus 2.3 10 10 45
Train 0.1 0 0 0
Private car 2.6 42 15 7
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Mode Share (% of total trips)
Methodology: travel activity
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Daily travel(veh-km/day)
Vehicle occupancy
Daily travel(pass-km/day)
Daily passenger trips
Avg. trip length
Population
Daily trip rate
Trip length-city area ratio
Population
Population density
City size
Trip rate for workers
Trip rate for nonworkers
Workforce participation
rate
Mode split
Historical and projected population growth - Surat
• Have trip length data by mode, but no historical data• Base future trip length estimates on city size• Suppose that density is given by scenarios. (constant
under Two-Wheeler and Sustainability; somewhat lower under Automobility)
• Assume current relationship between city radius and average trip length remains
• Limitations to this estimate (cities will become more polycentric), but it gives a decent approximation.
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Methodology: travel activity
Emission Factors for Current Indian Vehicles as Estimated from Three Studies
Growth in population and total daily trips for Surat, 2005-2040
Population
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Annual CO2 emissions for Surat
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Per capita emissions: current and under scenarios for 2040
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Estimated 2040 emissions as a ratio to 2005 levels
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Percent of total emissions for each mode - Surat
Limitations and sources of uncertainty
• Lack of historical data on trip length and trip frequency– forecasts estimated based on demographic
trends and assumptions about city form– Forecasts validated against data from other
countries, but questions about applicability– Time, congestion constraints could slow growth in
travel distances• Uncertainty in vehicle technology• Unclear when and whether urban populations
will stabilize – how big is too big?
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Conclusions
• Differences between scenarios reflect great deal of uncertainty, but also opportunity.
• Scenarios show importance of providing good public transport and promoting more sustainable modes, while discouraging automobile travel.– Cities taking some steps: e.g. BRT in Ahmedabad
and Surat, metro in Mumbai• Land use and street design policies also
important to prevent “worst case” scenario• Need for better data on travel behavior
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