Transportation Trends Page 1 mated Vehicles: mated Vehicles: hnology that will change our mobility experi hnology that will change our mobility experi Ryan Lanyon Program Manager, Transportation Services City Toronto ACT Canada Sustainable Mobility Summit December 3, 2014
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Transportation Trends Transportation Services Page 1 Automated Vehicles: The technology that will change our mobility experience Ryan Lanyon Program Manager,
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Transportation Trends
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Automated Vehicles:Automated Vehicles:The technology that will change our mobility experienceThe technology that will change our mobility experience
Ryan LanyonProgram Manager, Transportation ServicesCity Toronto
“There will come a time when driving a car is like riding the horse. Some people will still like to do it, but most of us won’t.” – Peter Schwartz
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Themes
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• The Vehicle
• The Changing Trip Experience
• Impacts on Mobility Choices
• Considerations for Municipalities
• TDM Efforts
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Levels of Automation
0. No Automation1. Function-specific Automation
• e.g. automatic transmission, cruise control
2. Combined Function Automation• e.g. automatic parking, adaptive cruise control with lane
centering
3. Limited Self-Driving Automation• e.g. the driver is available, but can cede control
4. Full Self-Driving Automation• e.g. there is no human driver, nor is a passenger required
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Source: US Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
Transportation Trends
Driver as a Passenger
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Video modified from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rMx-iGFys6s
Transportation Trends
Time
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Inside the Car
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An Extension of the Home?
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The Promise of Safety
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Transportation Trends
Levels of Automation
0. No Automation1. Function-specific Automation
• e.g. cruise control
2. Combined Function Automation• e.g. adaptive cruise control with lane centering
3. Limited Self-Driving Automation• e.g. the driver is available, but can cede control
4. Full Self-Driving Automation• e.g. there is no human driver, nor is a passenger required
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Source: US Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
Disruptive
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Total Automation
“Automation could be the catalyst that brings together personal mobility and public transportation,” - Sven Beiker, of the Center for Automotive Research at Stanford (CARS).
Cost of parking at work > cost of return trip to home
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Trends in Mobility Patterns
• Repopulating the core• Reduced interest in auto ownership• Increased diversity in modal choice• Increased use of sustainable modes• Greater acceptance of technology• Mobile technology and mobility options
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Transportation Trends
Reduced Auto Ownership
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?
Transportation Trends
Reduced Auto Ownership
• Elimination of sunken investment• Potential models
• Subscription with unlimited use• Membership fee with per-trip pricing based on volume• Per-trip pricing• Time-based pricing?
• Customization of the experience• Vehicle• Seat adjustment, environment, entertainment
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A Service for All
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AVs: Other Applications
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Challenges
Social Acceptance•Public Transit – Leave the driving to someone else•Automated and Connected Vehicles – Leave the driving to something else•Early adoption: Commercial and freight vehicles?
Regulatory Acceptance•Liability•Appropriate decision-making and driving behaviour?
• Speed limit vs. average travel speed
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Transportation Trends
Considerations for Municipalities
• Engineering• Traffic systems• Geometry: redesign of streets; dedicated lanes?• Maintenance – where are the lanes?
• Planning and parking requirements• Interior drop-offs?
• Enforcement• Emergency vehicles
• Connectivity?
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Transportation Trends
Considerations in TDM
• The ‘spare time’ advantage will be reduced• How to encourage carpooling in a framework
where transportation is sold as a service?• Importance of pricing to reduce transportation
demand• Per trip?• Per unit of distance?• Per unit of time?• Peak period premiums?• Class of service? E.g. SOV or carpool
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Transition Period
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Acknowledgments
• CAVCOE and Conference Board of Canada• Transportation Research Board (TRB)• National Association of City Transportation
Officials (NACTO)• Antoine Belaieff, Metrolinx• Stephen Buckley & Joey Reeder, City of
Toronto
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Thank YouThank YouRyan LanyonProgram Manager, Transportation ServicesCity of [email protected]@ryan_lanyon