Transportation Trends Transportation Services Page 1 Automated Vehicles: The technology that will change our mobility experience Ryan Lanyon Program Manager,

Transportation Trends

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Automated Vehicles:Automated Vehicles:The technology that will change our mobility experienceThe technology that will change our mobility experience

Ryan LanyonProgram Manager, Transportation ServicesCity Toronto

ACT Canada Sustainable Mobility SummitDecember 3, 2014


“There will come a time when driving a car is like riding the horse. Some people will still like to do it, but most of us won’t.” – Peter Schwartz

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Themes

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• The Vehicle

• The Changing Trip Experience

• Impacts on Mobility Choices

• Considerations for Municipalities

• TDM Efforts


Levels of Automation

0. No Automation1. Function-specific Automation

• e.g. automatic transmission, cruise control

2. Combined Function Automation• e.g. automatic parking, adaptive cruise control with lane

centering

3. Limited Self-Driving Automation• e.g. the driver is available, but can cede control

4. Full Self-Driving Automation• e.g. there is no human driver, nor is a passenger required

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Source: US Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration


Driver as a Passenger

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Video modified from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rMx-iGFys6s


Time

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Inside the Car

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An Extension of the Home?

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The Promise of Safety

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Levels of Automation

0. No Automation1. Function-specific Automation

• e.g. cruise control

2. Combined Function Automation• e.g. adaptive cruise control with lane centering

3. Limited Self-Driving Automation• e.g. the driver is available, but can cede control

4. Full Self-Driving Automation• e.g. there is no human driver, nor is a passenger required

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Source: US Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

Disruptive


Total Automation

“Automation could be the catalyst that brings together personal mobility and public transportation,” - Sven Beiker, of the Center for Automotive Research at Stanford (CARS).

Source: http://www.govtech.com/transportation/GT-Taking-Driverless-Cars-to-the-Next-Level.html

Disruptions•Transit, taxis, auto ownership, school buses•New markets – those who could not drive•Displacement of old technology and patterns

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Total Automation

• Two directions• Continued/increased auto-ownership

• Customized cars for different needs• Further extension of your personality

• Decreased auto-ownership• Multiple commuting trips, shared use• Automated vehicles as taxis

• Impact on transit• Compact urban environment – virtually none• Suburban low-density environment – complete overhaul

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Auto Ownership Model

Car + Driver

DriverlessCar

no passengerpassenger no passenger passenger

Cost of parking at work > cost of return trip to home

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Trends in Mobility Patterns

• Repopulating the core• Reduced interest in auto ownership• Increased diversity in modal choice• Increased use of sustainable modes• Greater acceptance of technology• Mobile technology and mobility options

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Reduced Auto Ownership

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?


Reduced Auto Ownership

• Elimination of sunken investment• Potential models

• Subscription with unlimited use• Membership fee with per-trip pricing based on volume• Per-trip pricing• Time-based pricing?

• Customization of the experience• Vehicle• Seat adjustment, environment, entertainment

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A Service for All

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AVs: Other Applications

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Challenges

Social Acceptance•Public Transit – Leave the driving to someone else•Automated and Connected Vehicles – Leave the driving to something else•Early adoption: Commercial and freight vehicles?

Regulatory Acceptance•Liability•Appropriate decision-making and driving behaviour?

• Speed limit vs. average travel speed

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Considerations for Municipalities

• Engineering• Traffic systems• Geometry: redesign of streets; dedicated lanes?• Maintenance – where are the lanes?

• Planning and parking requirements• Interior drop-offs?

• Enforcement• Emergency vehicles

• Connectivity?

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Considerations in TDM

• The ‘spare time’ advantage will be reduced• How to encourage carpooling in a framework

where transportation is sold as a service?• Importance of pricing to reduce transportation

demand• Per trip?• Per unit of distance?• Per unit of time?• Peak period premiums?• Class of service? E.g. SOV or carpool

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Transition Period

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Acknowledgments

• CAVCOE and Conference Board of Canada• Transportation Research Board (TRB)• National Association of City Transportation

Officials (NACTO)• Antoine Belaieff, Metrolinx• Stephen Buckley & Joey Reeder, City of

Toronto

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Thank YouThank YouRyan LanyonProgram Manager, Transportation ServicesCity of [email protected]@ryan_lanyon

Transportation Trends Transportation Services Page 1 Automated Vehicles: The technology that will change our mobility experience Ryan Lanyon Program Manager,

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