Transportation Safety Databases - Accident Records and Exposure Data Special Library Association presentation June 9, 2003 Deborah Bruce, Ph.D. Safety.

Transportation Safety Databases - Accident

Records and Exposure Data

Special Library Association

presentation June 9, 2003

Deborah Bruce, Ph.D.Safety Studies and Statistical Analysis Division

National Transportation Safety [email protected]

Federal Transportation Databases

ScopeAccident, Incident, Activity, CommodityDegree of injury, Property damage,Quantity of released substanceType of occurrence

Modal DifferencesAviation, Highway, Pipeline, Railroad, Marine, Intermodal

Analytic PurposeNeed to normalize for comparisons

The Purpose of Accident and Injury Data

• Determine the severity of an event

• Provide a basis for prevention / mitigation strategies

• Aid in calculating “cost” of transportation accidents

• Basis for setting priorities and resource allocation

Haddon Matrix

Phase of EventPrecrash, Crash, Postcrash

Risk FactorsHuman, Vehicle, Physical EnvironmentSocioeconomic Environment

Safety ReportTransportation Safety

DatabasesNTSB/SR-02/02

All modes represented, 18 Accident and Incident databases that represented the

most frequently used by NTSB (Listed in handout)

Database Review

• Representativeness

• Accuracy

• Timeliness

• Completeness

• Intermodal Compatibility

• Budget and Staff

User Interviews• Air Transport Association, Regional Airline Association,

Allied Pilots Association, Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association, Flight Safety Foundation, Briling and Associates, AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety, American Trucking Association, Insurance Institute for Highway Safety

• Gas Research Institute, American Petroleum Institute, Association of Oil Pipelines

• Association of American Railroads, American Short Line Railroad Association, Union Pacific, Burlington Northern, CSX

• NASBLA, National Safe Boating Council

Lifecycle of a Database

• Development – Needs Assessment and Design

• Operation – Data Collection, Data Entry, Data Auditing, Data Analysis, Output

• Evaluation – External Feedback, Internal Feedback

Aviation Accident Data

a closer look at aviation accident events

and how we measureexposure to risk

History of NTSB Aviation Accident Data

• Accident data starting in 1962 for airlines and 1964 for GA, commuters and air-taxi

• 1982-1984: Expanded data collection to include longer narrative, more detailed sequence of events, supplemental forms

• 2000: Transition to fully relational SQL Server database – Accident Data Management System (ADMS). Includes all accident data between 1982 – present

ADMS System

• Approximately 40,000 accidents and incidents from 1982 – present

• Each record can contains up to 650 data elements relating to personnel, aircraft and environment

• Data types include Alphanumeric code (e.g., engine type, sequence of events codes); Dates/Times (e.g., event date); Integers (e.g., altitude, runway length); Text (e.g., operator name, narrative); Multiple Response (e.g., crew certification)

What is an Aviation Accident?

An Accident is an occurrence with the operation of an aircraft which:• takes place between the time any person boards the aircraft with the intention of flight until all such persons have disembarked, AND• any person suffers death or serious injury, OR• the aircraft receives substantial damage (49 CFR 830)

Substantial Damage adversely affects the structural strength, performance, or flight characteristics of the aircraft ANDWould normally require major repair or replacement of the affected component.

What is an Injury?

• Fatal Injury results in death within 30 days of an accident

• Serious Injury- requires hospitalization for more than 48 hours, commencing within 7 days- results in a fracture of any bone- causes severe hemorrhages, nerve,

muscle, or tendon damage- involves any internal organ- involves 2nd or 3rd degree burns or

burns affecting >5% of the body

What types of Aircraft Operations are Included?

• Part 121 Commercial Air Carriers (scheduled and nonscheduled)

• Part 135 Scheduled Operations• Part 135 Nonscheduled Air Taxis• Part 91 General Aviation• Public Use Operations• Part 103 Ultralights• Part 129 Foreign Air Carriers• Part 137 Agricultural Operations• Part 133 Rotorcraft External Load

What is General Aviation?

NOT Part 121 Scheduled Air CarriersPart 121 Non-scheduled CargoPart 135 Scheduled CommutersPart 135 Non-scheduled Air TaxiNUSC Non-US Scheduled Commercial

IS US Registered (N # aircraft)Part 137 Aerial ApplicationsPart 91 General Operating Flt RulesPUBU Public Use OperationsOther Work UseStolen, suicides, sabotage, etc

Which Aircraft are not in the NTSB Accident Database?

• Military aircraft (unless the accident also involves civil aircraft)

• Foreign-registered aircraft

• Certain public use (government) aircraft (as defined in 49 CFR, Part 830.5)

• Ultralights (powered aircraft weighing less than 254 lbs.)

• Commercial space launches

How many Aviation Accidents are in the NTSB Database?

1962-1981 contains 87,048 records1982-2002 contains 50,184 records

Database available in Accessftp://www.ntsb.gov/avdata

How many accidents per year?

• Part 121 accidents average than 41/yr

• Part 121 scheduled avg 36/yr

• Part 121 nonscheduled avg 5/yr

• Part 135 scheduled avg 11/yr

• Part 135 nonscheduled avg 76/yr

• General Aviation avg 1,898/yr

• Totals around 2000 accidents per year

How Can I Get Accident Data?

• Aviation accident statistics from the webwww.ntsb.gov

• Investigations and Safety Studies

• Annual Review publications

• Full database is available on our web site ftp://www.ntsb.gov/avdata

• Accident queries via web site

Accident Statistics

NTSB Publications

NTSB Aviation Publicationswww.ntsb.gov

Annual Aviation Accident Reviews (Commercial Air Carrier and General Aviation) 1998 and 1999 Air Carrier and 1998 GA completed 1999 Air Carrier and 1999 GA are being prepared for publication, 2000 Air Carrier in progress

Safety StudiesTransportation Safety Databases, Public Aircraft Safety, Survivability, Aircraft Evacuations, ATC Equipment Outages, Safety in Alaska, Safety of Air Tour Industry, Commuter Airline Safety, Wake Vortex Safety Issues, Flightcrew-Involved Accidents 1978-1990

Accident Investigation Reports

Accident Reports

Includes:

History of Flight, Injury information, Damage to Aircraft, Pertinent personnel information, Aircraft Information, Meteorological information, Aids to navigation, Communication, Aerodrome information, Flight information, Wreckage or impact information, Medical or pathological information, Fire, Survival or forensic aspects, Tests and research, Organizational and management information, Effective investigative techniques

Annual Reviews

NTSB Website Query Tool• Best for simple queries to find a set of

accidents with a common basic feature, no aggregation

• Allows access to narrative descriptions and limited data for 1962-1981 accidents

• Results in report status, narrative, probable cause, contributing factors, and basic accident data

• Requires internet connectionhttp://www.ntsb.gov/ntsb/query.asp#query_start

Accident database query via web

NTSB Website Query Tool

Downloadable datasets from NTSB FTP site

• Best for more complex queries requiring fields not available using Website Query Tool

• Allows highly customized searches

• Allows data aggregation/analysis

• Requires internet connection and 1995 or later version of MSAccess

• Avdata DIR contains a readme file,

• A diagram of the relational database (admspub.pdf),

• The coding manual (codman.pdf),

• A copy of the SQL database structure,

• A subdirectory of .mdb databases (years 1982-2003),

• Weekly updates for current data

• Within each access database (as a table), there is a Data dictionary and translation tables

ftp://www.ntsb.gov/avdata

Accident Investigation Process - How is the Accident Database

developed?• Accident data input from accident safety

investigator via distributed data collection software

• Preliminary accident record appears within 5-10 days

• Factual data entered in about 6 months• Final report with probable cause 12-18

months following the accident

Aviation Safety Investigator’s Data Entry Process

Types of Investigations

• Majors

• Field

• Limited

• Foreign

• What does the accident number tell us?

NTSB Number DecoderATL02LA084

• 3-letter code: Office Identifier, ATL = Southeast regional office in Atlanta

• 2-digit fiscal year, 02 = 2002• 1-letter type of investigation code, L = Limited• 1-letter transportation mode code, A = Aviation• 3-digit sequential numbering, 084 = 84th accident

in 2002 for that regional office

Products of Investigations

• Final Accident Report

• Docket records

• ADMS Database records

What, When, and Why of Accidents

• WHAT – “Occurrences”

• WHEN – “Phase of Flight”

• WHY – “Sequence of Events”

What’s the meaning of an Accident Rate Calculationsand how do we quantify risk

NTSB Accident Counts____________________

FAA Activity Measures

EVENTS ________

EXPOSURE

=

Aviation Accident Rates by Sector (per 100,000 Flight Hours)

0

2

4

6

8

GeneralAviation

PublicAircraft

Air Taxi ScheduledPart 135

ScheduledPart 121

GA Accidents, Flight Hours

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

Acc

iden

ts

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

Flig

ht

Ho

urs

Flight Hours Nonfatal Fatal

Estimated GA Flight Hours by Category (in Millions)

0

6

12

18

24

30

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

SE Piston Other FixedRotorcraft Experimental

Aviation Flight Hours by Type(in Hundred-Thousands)

0

100

200

300

400

GA Schd 121 Schd 135 Nsch 135

0

10

20

30

4019

82

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

Original

Revised

Revision of FAA Air Revision of FAA Air Taxi Flight Hour EstimatesTaxi Flight Hour Estimates

Total Aircraft Occupants and Injury Totals

0

2000

4000

6000

80001

98

3

198

5

198

7

198

9

199

1

199

3

199

5

199

7

199

9

200

1

Total Occupants

Minor Injuries

Serious Injuries

Fatal Injuries

GA Aircraft Shipped

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

50001

98

2

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

SE-Piston ME-Piston

Turboprop Turbojet

Estimated Active GA Aircraft

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

SE-Piston Other Fixed WingRotorcraft Experimental

Highest Certificate for Accident Involved GA Pilots

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

AirlineTransport

Commercial Private Student

DATA STUDYSurvivability of Accidents Involving Part 121 U.S. Air

Carrier Operations,

1983-2000

Occupant Survival for All Part 121 Accidents

Survivors96%

Fatalities4%

(51,207)

(2,280)

Survivable Accidents

• Forces transmitted to occupants through their seat and restraint systems cannot exceed the limits of human tolerance for abrupt accelerations

• Structure in the occupants’ immediate environment must remain substantially intact to the extent that a livable volume is provided throughout the crash

Occupant Survivalfor Survivable Part 121 Accidents

Impact15%

Other1%

Survivors77%

Fire7%

(1,523)

(28)

(306)

(131)

Report Definition of a Serious Accident

• At least one serious injury or fatality

• Substantial damage or completedestruction of an aircraft

• Fire (Pre-crash or Post-crash)

Occupant Survival for Serious Part 121 Accidents

Impact26%

Other1%

Unknown 12%

Survivors56%

Fire5%

(1,524)

(131)

(716)

(340)

(28)

• 96 percent survive all accidents

• 56 percent survive serious accidents

• 77 percent survive serious-survivable accidents

Conclusions

Data Sources Related to Accidents

NTSB Data RecommendationNTSB Docket System of RecordsOther Sources of Related Safety Data

NTSB Safety Recommendations

16% 10%

19%

16%37%2%

Since 1967 Total Recs Issued = 12,026

Total Aviation Recs 4,419Currently 342 Open

NTSB Public Docket

• Archive of materials pertinent to an accident/incident

• History: Microfiche, Mainframe based, Docket Management System (DMS)

• Public Access– Public Reference Room at NTSB HQ– Online Request Form

(http://www.ntsb.gov/pubmail/pubmail.asp)– Contractor: General Microfilm 301-929-8888

Items in the NTSB Public Docket

• Preliminary report

• Hearing documents

• IIC factual reports

• Group chair factual reports

• Studies by board staff

• Board reports

• Supporting Material

NTSB Public Docket

• Supporting Materials may include– Pilot/operator aircraft report– Witness statements or records of

interviews– Maps/charts– Excerpts from manuals– Weather reports– Transcripts of radio communications– Statement of party representatives

NTSB Public Docket

• Supporting Materials may include– Reports from other federal agencies– Reports from state or local agencies– Submissions or correspondence from

parties to the investigations– Flight Data Recorder (FDR) data– Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR) transcript– Release of wreckage form– Toxicology reports

NTSB Public Docket

• Supporting Materials may include– Transcripts from hearings/depositions– Petitions for reconsideration– Related safety recommendations and/or

safety studies– Drawings (e.g., engineering sketches)– Photographs pertinent to the accident– Data files– Other materials (flight plans, fueling

records, load manifests, etc.)

NTSB Public Docket

• Supporting Materials may include– Reports from other federal agencies– Reports from state or local agencies– Submissions or correspondence from

parties to the investigations– Flight Data Recorder (FDR) data– Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR) transcript– Release of wreckage form– Toxicology reports

What is NOT on the NTSB Public Docket

• Autopsy reports or photos

• Proprietary, confidential or “trade secret” items

• Contracts or dollar amounts that are irrelevant to understanding the event

• Privacy-protected material: names, addresses, SSN, etc

• Preliminary documents/notes

Aviation Safety Data Sources Other than NTSB

FAA NASDAC (www.nasdac.faa.gov) AirClaims CASE2ICAO ADREP 2000 (www.icao.int)FAA CAMI BTS Activity Data (www.bts.gov)

National Aviation Safety Data Analysis Center

NASDAC provides the public with access to several of the principal aviation safety dataand information sources the Federal Government uses for various purposes. • FAA Air Registry• Aviation Safety Reporting System• BTS Airline Traffic and Capacity• FAA Accident / Incident Data System• Near Midair Collision System• NTSB Safety Recommendations w/ FAA Responses• NTSB Aviation Accident Database• World Aircraft Accident Summary

AirClaims – CASE2

• Airclaims – 2 major insurance agencies do claims adjustment for 40% of airline accidents

• Client Aviation System Enquiry (CASE) software and subscription service

• Worldwide accident/loss information– Records back to 1948– Full histories of approx 80K aircraft,

including transfers, hours, cycles, weight, seating, etc.

ICAO Reportingfor ADREP 2000 System

www.icao.int

• Intern’l Accident Data is collected by ICAO• ICAO’s Accident Investigation and Prevention (AIG) Section maintains ADREP 2000• Member Countries Report based on Annex 13• Reporting Criteria = max wt over 2,250 kg• Bimonthly ADREP Summary of Accident and Incident Reports

FAA Civil Aerospace Medical Institute (CAMI)

CAMI Library has Online CatalogBooksTech ReportsArchived & Historical DocumentsCataloged Websites

CAMI provides NTSB with toxicological results and maintains a confidential tox databaseAviation Statistical Handbook

Near Midair Collisions, Operational Errors,Pilot Deviations, Vehicle/PedestrianDeviations, Surface Incident Data,Flight Assists, Accident Data

Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Airline Activity Data

Scheduled Part 121 Operators report monthlyUsing Form 41, T100 and T-1000f forms

Scheduled Part 135 Operators reportQuarterly using Form 298-C