Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division May the Force Be With You: Understanding Market Forces and How They are Relevant.

Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division

May the Force Be With You:May the Force Be With You:Understanding Market Forces Understanding Market Forces and How They are Relevant to and How They are Relevant to

PlanningPlanning

Becky Knudson: Household Travel DemandDenise Whitney: Land Use Development

Christina Fera-Thomas: Traffic Flow

Oregon Planning Institute Statewide Planning Conference 2008

Friday, September 12, 2008



PlanningPlanning

Becky Knudson: Household Travel Demand




OverviewOverview

• Households as economic engines– Participate in “activities”

• Budgets constrain activity levels– Multiple needs to satisfy within a budget

• Activity generates travel– Travel is a derived demand

• Land use attracts travel– Business location affects travel patterns


Households are Economic Engines Households are Economic Engines • Households participate in

activities– Provide labor for production– Spend income to purchase

goods and services• Activities generate travel

– Trips to work– Trips to shop– Trips for recreation– Trips for HH production


Household Consumption is 70% of Household Consumption is 70% of EconomyEconomy

Labor

Income

Produce Consumption Goods

Buy Goods & Services

Recreation

Travel Demand Derived from Household Activity


Household Activity Constrained by Household Activity Constrained by BudgetBudget

• Households adapt spending patterns• Shift spending from one category to

another to meet their goals• Consumer Expenditure Survey provides a

look into household budgets and spending patterns


Consumer Expenditure SurveyConsumer Expenditure Survey

• Bureau of Labor Statistics sponsored• Conducted by Census Bureau annually

– Diary survey – two weeks, and– Interview survey – previous three months

• Used to construct the Consumer Price Index


Budget Categories & ResultsBudget Categories & Results• Housing• Household operations• Transportation• Food• Utilities• Health care• Apparel• Entertainment• Misc.


Consumer Expenditure Survey 2006 Household Spending by Budget Category

Housing 33%

Utilities 7%HH Ops 8%

Transport 17%

Health Care 6%

Apparel, etc. 4%

Entertainment 5%Misc. 8%

Food 12%




Transport 17%

Health Care 6%

Apparel, etc. 4%


Food 12%

Housing 33%

Housing costs include: rent, mortgage principle and interest, property tax, maintenance, and insurance.

Year 2000 housing was 31% of disposable income



Housing 33%HH Ops 8%

Transport 17%

Health Care 6%

Apparel, etc. 4%

Entertainment 5%

Misc. 8%Food 12%

Utilities 7%

Utility costs include: electricity, natural gas, heating oil, telephone, water

Year 2000 utilities were 6% of disposable income



Housing 33%


Transport 17%

Health Care 6%

Apparel, etc. 4%

Entertainment 5%

Misc. 8% Food 12%

Food costs include: food out of home and food at home

Year 2000 was 13% of budget

Year 2000 at home food was 59% of food budget, Year 2006 is was 56% of food budget



Housing 33%


Health Care 6%

Apparel, etc. 4%


Food 12%

Transport 17%

Transportation costs include: vehicle purchase, fuel & oil, maintenance and repair, financing, insurance, licensing

Year 2000 vehicle purchase was 46%, Year 2006 it was 40%

Year 2000 gas & oil were 17%, Year 2006 they were 26%


Household Activity Can be Household Activity Can be SimulatedSimulated• Household surveys provide information

used to create models representing regional travel patterns– Oregon Household Activity Survey 2008

• Travel demand models and traffic simulations are tools designed to represent household travel behavior– THE MODELS WORK! Analysis conducted by

TPAU over ten years ago accurately predicted travel patterns we observe today


Land Use Affects Household TravelHouseholds travel …

to businesses to work, shop, eat…

Land use patterns affect travel•Housing density •Business locations


Example Case Study – Placer Vineyards Example Case Study – Placer Vineyards (Sacramento, CA Area)(Sacramento, CA Area)

• 5200 acre site on edge of UGB• Three alternative proposals

– “Blueprint” higher density alternative with 21,000 households

– Two lower density alternatives with 14,000 households

• Designed to evaluate “Where will the growth go and what are the effects?”

Example from “Integrated Planning and Connected

Models” Gordon Garry, SACOG, 5th Oregon Symposium on Integrating Land Use and Transport Model, June 2008









•PLACE3S, an acronym for PLAnning for Community Energy, Economic and Environmental Sustainability, is an innovative planning method that fully integrates focused public participation, community development and design, and computer-assisted quantification tools (GIS) to help communities produce plans that retain dollars in the local economy, save energy, attract jobs and development, reduce pollution and traffic congestion and conserve open space.

•http://www.energy.ca.gov/places/










Higher density: 21K households

Daily VMT: 920K (18% - 22% lower)

Person trips bike/walk/transit: 8%

Person trips private auto: 91%

DVMT per HH: 43

2 Lower density scenarios: 14K households

7K households placed in most likely area

Daily VMT: 1120K - 1180K (22% - 28% higher)

Person trips bike/walk/transit: 4.8% - 5.3%

Person trips private auto: 93.5% - 93.9%

DVMT per HH: 55


Results from Sacramento Results from Sacramento StudyStudy

• Higher density land use resulted in– Less VMT– Fewer emissions– More bike/walk/transit – Provided more green space


ConclusionsConclusions

• Each household represents a unique set of activities and strategies designed to satisfy needs and desires

• Effective transportation planning supports household activity while conserving public resources

BUT• Households represent one piece of the

travel puzzle – trip generators


Land Use DevelopmentLand Use Development• Business attracts activity

– Workers– Customers– Shipping goods/services– Receiving goods/services

• Land use patterns are determined by another set of market forces



PlanningPlanning

Denise Whitney: Land Use Development




Household & Employment Activities Need to Be Household & Employment Activities Need to Be LocatedLocated

Labor

Income

Produce Consumption Goods

Buy Goods & Services

Recreation


Where Land Use and Real Estate Development Begin:Where Land Use and Real Estate Development Begin:Opportunity to Meet Market NeedOpportunity to Meet Market Need

Land Speculator

Predeveloper(private or public)

Land/Real Estate Developer

Property Owner


Market Forces

Viable Location(s)

Public

Local & State Govt.

Clients:users

investorsbuyers Development

Team

Project Idea:opportunity to meet need

Developers Juggle Many ConsiderationsDevelopers Juggle Many Considerations


Market Forces (national, regional)Market Forces (national, regional)

• Employment and industry trends

• Population and demographic trends

• Real estate market trends

• Development trends

• Capital markets

• Commodities markets


Viable Location (factors in site selection)Viable Location (factors in site selection)

• Physical features • Transportation• Price of the land• Zoning • Utilities• Government services/costs • Local attitudes• Local market forces


Considerations by Development TypeConsiderations by Development Type

Industrial

Office

• Accessible and desirable location• Adequate site size and configuration to meet

building design and parking needs• Access to technological infrastructure

• Transportation linkages (shipping time is money)• Adequate site size and configuration with room to grow• Utilities with sufficient capacity to handle requirements • Avoiding conflicting land uses• Proximity to resources and housing


Considerations by Development TypeConsiderations by Development Type

• Sufficient population/households with right income and demographic mix within market area

• Visibility and traffic (pedestrian or auto)• Accessible site of sufficient size

• Amenities such as neighborhood parks and schools• Availability of transit• Proximity to freeway access and/or employment nodes• Proximity to shopping districts

Retail

Residential


Project Feasibility and the Bottom LineProject Feasibility and the Bottom Line

Condominium Pro Forma

Retail Trade Area – Market Study

Bottom Line: Does it pencil?


A Project Occurs Only if Pieces Come Together

within Developers Planning Time Frame

Location

Financing & Feasibility

Market Need

People


Understanding Market Forces & Understanding Market Forces & Development Basics Makes for More Development Basics Makes for More

Effective PlanningEffective Planning

Incentives –

Zoning –

Fee Structures –

Community Expectations –

Transportation Facilities –

Work best when project is close to being feasible and incentive can nudge it into profitable range.

Can be more effective when recognizing desirability of locationsand site needs by development type.

That recognize developers need for certainty upfront are more likely to capture funds without inhibiting growth.

Can be more realistic when market influences on development/redevelopment are acknowledged.

Understanding the influence of market forces on land use and travel patterns leads to better transportation facility planning.


Market Forces Affect Traffic Market Forces Affect Traffic FlowFlow

Christina Fera-ThomasTransportation Analyst

Transportation Planning Analysis UnitSeptember 12th 2008


PlanningPlanning


ODOT Responsibility to Maintain ODOT Responsibility to Maintain State-Owned FacilitiesState-Owned Facilities

• Improve safety• Maintain an efficient roadway system• Meet FHWA standards and guidelines

for highways on the interstate system• Provide Connectivity

– Throughout the state– To local areas


ODOT Responsibility to Maintain ODOT Responsibility to Maintain State-Owned Facilities-cont’State-Owned Facilities-cont’

• Move goods and people efficiently• Consider all modes: auto, bicycle,

pedestrian, rail, ect• Improve livability to communities• Support for economic prosperity and

opportunities


Overview of the Analysis Overview of the Analysis ProcessProcess• Determine Study Area• Collect data• Develop Volumes• Analyze Alternatives

40040 390

405

85855

20

795

45

90

70

35


Determine Study AreaDetermine Study Area

• Generally larger than the project area because:– Nearby facilities may be affected – Roadways outside of immediate project

area may end up being part of a build alternative


Study Area

Project Area

Interchange

Determine Study AreaDetermine Study Area

Count Locations


Collect DataCollect Data

• Obtain Signal Timing Sheets• Collect field inventory

– Lane/crosswalk/shoulder widths– Turn bay lengths– Detector positions– Signal Operation– Miscellaneous observations

• Request Counts– Full Classification– 16 hour


Develop VolumesDevelop Volumes

Design Hour Volumes• Seasonally adjust (if necessary)• Apply Growth Factor (if necessary)

– Historical– Model

• Balance System40040 390

405

85855

20

795

45

90

70

35


Develop VolumesDevelop Volumes

Future Volumes/Build Volumes• Apply Growth Factor

– Historical – Model– Cumulative

• Balance• Create build model scenario if:

– Model is available– Traffic patterns will be affected


Analyze AlternativesAnalyze Alternatives

• Use of Synchro/Simtraffic or comparable software

• Compare performance of no-build and build alternatives to mobility standards

• Determine lengths of queues and their affect on the system

• Report additional performance measures


Case Study - Home DepotCase Study - Home Depot

• Home Depot Built within the project area– First Home Depot in Model Area as well as the

county• Only one other Home Improvement Superstore

within the model area• Will pull trips from the entire model area and

beyond– Model Scenarios will need to include Home Depot

which will show:• Any increase of trips within the study area• How trips have been redistributed amongst the

major roadways into the study area


Case Study - Home DepotCase Study - Home Depot

• Model Outputs would be used to create new volumes that include the development

• Analysis of the new volumes would show the affect Home Depot has on the system

• Depending on the affects; the developer may be required to assist with the project costs


Case Study - Home Depot

8 Miles


Questions?Questions?

Answers:Becky [email protected]

Denise [email protected]

Christina [email protected]

Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division May the Force Be With You: Understanding Market Forces and How They are Relevant.

Documents

household spending

household budgets

andinterview survey

budget categoryhousing

budget categoryutility

budget categoryfood

home food

gas oil