AIR QUALITY CONFORMITY ANALYSIS OF THE 2013 CONSTRAINED LONG RANGE PLAN & FY2013-2018 TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM DRAFT June 13, 2013 Transportation Planning Board Technical Committee Item #3
Feb 15, 2016
AIR QUALITY CONFORMITY ANALYSISOF THE
2013 CONSTRAINED LONG RANGE PLAN & FY2013-2018 TRANSPORTATION
IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM
DRAFTJune 13, 2013
Transportation Planning BoardTechnical Committee Item #3
2
Travel Model Adopted in 2012: Version 2.3.39 Calibrated primarily with 2007 information:
2007/08 Household Travel Survey 2007 American Community Survey 2007 traffic counts Transit on-board surveys
2010 model validation objectives: 1. To evaluate calibrated model results against recent travel data:
2010 traffic counts 2010 American Community Survey 2010 Metrorail electronic counts 2010 Geographically Focused Household Travel Survey
2. To refine the model to improve performance and forecasting ability
Validated travel model used in 2013 CLRP Analysis: Version 2.3.52
Travel model validation: background
3
VMT and VMT per capita have not followed historic trends since 2007
Potential Reasons Effect of Recession Fuel Price Volatility Growing Internet-based Commerce and Communications Telecommuting Changing Travel Preferences of the “Millennials” (ages
13-30)
Why is 2010 an Important Validation Year?
4
Source: US DOT/FHWA and US Census Bureau
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Year
Vehi
cle
Mile
s of
Tra
vel
(mill
ions
)
VMT
per
capi
ta
Total US Vehicle-Miles and Vehicle-Miles per Capita
1987-2012
5
Year Ratio RatioJurisdiction 2005 2007 2010 2011 '11/'07 '11/'10Inner Jurisdictions 14,672,100 14,621,000 14,597,700 14,538,000 0.99 1.00
Suburban Jurisdictions 69,355,500 70,506,100 70,038,800 69,496,900 0.99 0.99Outer Jurisdictions 24,834,600 25,410,400 25,778,000 25,683,300 1.01 1.00
Grand Total 108,862,200 110,537,500 110,414,500 109,718,200 0.99 0.99
VMT for the TPB Planning Area 2005–2011
Legend:
Inner Jurisdictions:DC, Arlington, Alexandria
Suburban Jurisdictions:Montgomery, Prince George’s, Fairfax
Outer Jurisdictions:Loudoun, Prince William, Frederick, Charles
Source: VDOT, MDOT, DDOT HPMS data (does not include local roads)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
Year
TPB Planning Area
Suburban Jurisdic-tions
Outer Jurisdictions
Inner Jurisdictions
6
Population for the TPB Planning Area 2005-2011
Legend:
Inner Jurisdictions:DC, Arlington, Alexandria
Suburban Jurisdictions:Montgomery, Prince George’s, Fairfax
Outer Jurisdictions:Loudoun, Prince William, Frederick, Charles
Year Ratio RatioJurisdiction 2005 2007 2010 2011 '11/'07 '11/'10
Inner Jurisdictions 917,100 930,000 949,300 964,500 1.04 1.02Suburban Jurisdictions 2,831,500 2,880,000 2,952,800 2,973,400 1.03 1.01
Outer Jurisdictions 1,009,900 1,063,700 1,144,400 1,168,900 1.10 1.02Grand Total 4,758,500 4,873,700 5,046,500 5,106,800 1.05 1.01Source: Round 8.2 Cooperative Forecasts-
2007 & 2011 figures are linearly interpolated
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
Year
TPB Planning Area
Suburban Jurisdic-tions
Outer Jurisdictions
Inner Jurisdictions
7
VMT per Capita for the TPB Planning Area 2005-2011
Legend:
Inner Jurisdictions:DC, Arlington, Alexandria
Suburban Jurisdictions:Montgomery, Prince George’s, Fairfax
Outer Jurisdictions:Loudoun, Prince William, Frederick, Charles
Year Ratio RatioJurisdiction 2005 2007 2010 2011 '11/'07 '11/'10
Inner Jurisdictions 16.0 15.7 15.4 15.1 0.96 0.98Suburban Jurisdictions 24.5 24.5 23.7 23.4 0.95 0.99
Outer Jurisdictions 24.6 23.9 22.5 22.0 0.92 0.98Grand Total 22.9 22.7 21.9 21.5 0.95 0.98
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
Year
VMTp
erCa
pita
TPB Planning Area
Suburban Jurisdictions Jurisdictions
Outer Jurisdictions
Inner Jurisdictions
8
Increased non-motorized trip shares in dense-mixed use areas (Area Types 1 and 2)Based on comparisons with non-motorized trip shares observed in geographically focused household travel survey
Applies to non-work purposes only (i.e. did not change work trips)
Refined highway network facility type coding
Improved estimated to observed VMT2012 model: 1.042013 model: 1.00
Implemented several other technical adjustments to improve the performance or internal consistency of individual modeling steps
Validation-related Changes to the Travel Demand Model
9
Non-motorized Trip Adjustment in the Travel Demand Model
• The share of
non-work, non-motorized trips in dense mixed use areas has been adjusted upward
• map represents the year 2010
Area Type 1
Area Type 2
Share of Non-work, non-motorized tripsArea 2012 Model 2013 ModelArea Type 1 26% 33%Area Type 2 16% 21%
10
US 50 VA 606 (Loudoun County Pkwy) Northstar Blvd.
Northstar Blvd. To VA 606 US 50 to 1.5 miles
north of US 501.5 miles north of US 50 to
Dulles Greenway
US 50 (at Northstar Blvd.) to VA 606 (at 1.5 miles
north of US 50)
Current Conditions4/5/6 lanes, major/principal
arterial 2/4 lanes, minor arterial 2 lanes, minor arterial-------------
2013 CLRP (no Dulles access improvements) 6 lanes, principal arterial 4 lanes, minor/major arterial 4 lanes, minor/major arterial
-------------
2013 CLRP VDOT A 6 lanes, principal arterial 4 lanes, minor/major arterial 4 lanes, minor/major arterial 4 lanes, principal arterial
2013 CLRP VDOT B4 lanes, limited access facility
+ 6 lanes, principal arterial4 lanes, limited access facility
+ 4 lanes, major arterial 4 lanes, major arterial-------------
2013 CLRP VDOT C (Loudoun County Comprehensive Plan) 6 lanes, limited access facility 8 lanes, limited access facility 4 lanes, major arterial
-------------
VDOT Dulles Access Improvements Alternatives
11
AIR QUALITY CONFORMITY2013 CLRP & FY2013-2018 TIP
Ozone Season VOC
2015 2017 2020 2025 2030 20400
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
59.2
52.5
46.6
42.9
40.6 44
.1
40.6 44
.1
40.6 44
.1
40.6 44
.1
No Dulles Access ImprovementsVDOT ALT AVDOT ALT BVDOT ALT C2009 Attainment Budget
Year
Emis
sion
s In
vent
orie
s (to
ns/d
ay)
2009 Attainment Budget : 66.5 tons/day
12
AIR QUALITY CONFORMITY2013 CLRP & FY2013-2018 TIP
Ozone Season NOx
2015 2017 2020 2025 2030 20400
25
50
75
100
125
150
133.
8
110.
5
87.7
72.1
66.9
68.267 68.2
67.0 68
.2
66.9
68.2
No Dulles Access ImprovementsVDOT ALT AVDOT ALT BVDOT ALT C2009 Attainment Budget2010 Contingency Budget
Year
Emis
sion
s In
vent
orie
s (to
ns/d
ay)
2009 Attainment Budget: 146.1 tons/day
2010 Contingency Budget: 144.3 tons/day
13
AIR QUALITY CONFORMITY2013 CLRP & FY2013-2018 TIP
PM2.5 Precursor NOx
14
2002 2015 2017 2020 2025 2030 20400
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
126,95346
,904
38,8
92
31,0
95
25,6
96
23,9
89
24,6
0923,999 24,61823,997
24,6
2023,996
24,6
23
No Dulles Access ImprovementsVDOT ALT AVDOT ALT BVDOT ALT C2002 N0x LevelTier 1 Mobile BudgetsTier 2 Mobile Budgets
Year
Emis
sion
s In
vent
orie
s (
tons
/yea
r)
NOTE: MWAQC approved a PM2.5 Maintenance Plan on 5/22/2013. The Plan contains mobile budgets for years 2017 and 2025, which are shown in this graph for informational purposes only. When they are approved by EPA they will be used for conformity. In the meantime, without approved mobile budgets, it is required that Forecast Year emissions do not exceed Base Year 2002 emissions.
126,953 tons/year
50,051
32,88041,709
27,400
AIR QUALITY CONFORMITY2013 CLRP & FY2013-2018 TIP
Direct PM2.5
15
2002 2015 2017 2020 2025 2030 20400
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
3,95
9
1,88
5
1,65
0
1,38
5
1,23
4
1,21
1
1,25
6
1,21
2
1,25
6
1,21
2
1,25
6
1,21
2
1,25
6
No Dulles Access ImprovementsVDOT ALT AVDOT ALT BVDOT ALT CTier 1 Mobile BudgetsTier 2 Mobile Budgets2002 Level
Year
Emis
sion
s In
vent
orie
s (t
ons/
year
)
3,959 tons/year
NOTE: MWAQC approved a PM2.5 Maintenance Plan on 5/22/2013. The Plan contains mobile budgets for years 2017 and 2025, which are shown in this graph for informational purposes only. When they are approved by EPA they will be used for conformity. In the meantime, without approved mobile budgets, it is required that Forecast Year emissions do not exceed Base Year 2002 emissions.
1,2121,2121,212
2,144
1,5871,787
1,350
*September 19, 2012 TPB is Briefed on Draft Call for Projects *October 17, 2012 TPB Releases Final Call for Projects - Transportation Agencies Begin Submitting Project Information through On-Line
Database December 14, 2012 DEADLINE: Transportation Agencies Complete On-Line Submission of Draft Project Inputs. January 4, 2013 Technical Committee Reviews Draft CLRP & TIP Project Submissions and Draft Scope of Work for the Air Quality
Conformity Assessment January 10, 2013 CLRP & TIP Project Submissions and Draft Scope of Work Released for Public Comment *January 16, 2013 TPB is Briefed on Project Submissions and Draft Scope of Work February 9, 2013 Public Comment Period Ends *February 20, 2013 TPB Reviews Public Comments and is asked to Approve Project
Submissions and Draft Scope of Work May 3, 2013 DEADLINE: Transportation Agencies Finalize Congestion Management Documentation Forms (where needed) and
CLRP & TIP Forms1. (Submissions must not impact conformity inputs; note that the deadline for changes affecting conformity inputs was February 20, 2013).
June 13, 2013 Draft CLRP & TIP and Conformity Assessment Released for Public Comment at Citizens Advisory Committee (CAC) *June 19, 2013 TPB Briefed on the Draft CLRP & TIP and Conformity Assessment July 13, 2013 Public Comment Period Ends *July 17, 2013 TPB Reviews Public Comments and Responses to Comments, and
is Presented the Draft CLRP & TIP and Conformity Assessment for Adoption *TPB Meeting
1 By this date, the CLRP forms must include information on the Planning Factors, Environmental Mitigation, Congestion Management Information, and Intelligent Transportation Systems; separate Congestion Management Documentation Forms (where needed) must also be finalized.
Schedule
16