Transportation leadership you can trust. presented to Regional Transportation Plan Guidelines Work Group Meeting presented by Christopher Wornum Cambridge.

Transportation leadership you can trust.

presented to

Regional Transportation Plan Guidelines Work Group Meeting

presented by

Christopher WornumCambridge Systematics, Inc.

June 28, 2007

New Approaches to Understanding the demand for Transit

Market-Based Planning ProcessFrom Private Sector to Public Sector

Private SectorPrivate Sector

ToyotaToyota

Mobility ServicesMobility ServicesMobility ServicesMobility Services

Door-to-Door ServiceConsistent Customer Experience

Walk Wait Board Pay Seat Ride Arrival Walk Errands

• Distance

• Esthetics

• Barriers

• Weather

•Headway

•Arrival information

•Shelter Comfort

•Safety

•Low floor

•Queuing

•Speed

•Fare

•Convenience

•Transfer

•Availability

•Comfort

•Privacy

•Speed

•Comfort

•Productive

•Reliability

•Way Finding

•Transfer

•Distance

•Esthetics

•Barriers

•Alternative modes

•Weather

• Access

• Emergencies

• Modes

• Schedule

Home Work

Re

lati

ve

Im

po

rta

nc

e

Branding &Marketing

Competitive Positioning

Understand CustomersUnderstand Customers

Market SegmentationMarket Segmentation

Mode Choice AnalysisMode Choice Analysis

Understand MarketsUnderstand Markets

Origin – Destination VolumesOrigin – Destination Volumes

Other Travel Market ConditionsOther Travel Market Conditions

ServicePlanning Tool

(SPT)

TransitCompetitiveness

Factor(TCF)

RoadmapFrom Market Research to Service Planning

Service Planning

(Product Development)

Determine Traveler Attitudes

Value of Time Value of Time & Productivity& Productivity Transportation CostsTransportation Costs CrowdsCrowds StressStress

Personal SafetyPersonal SafetyConcern for theConcern for the

Natural EnvironmentNatural EnvironmentNeed for Flexibility Need for Flexibility

and Speedand SpeedPersonal Travel Personal Travel

ExperienceExperience

Key Attitude Number 2

The people who ride the trolley are like me

• The people who ride city buses are like me

• The people who ride the Coaster commuter train are like me

• I would (not) prefer to drive than to be driven

• I don’t mind delays as long as I am comfortable

• Generally I make the same types of trips at the same times of day

• The type of transportation that people use (does not) reflect their social status

Sensitivity to PersonalTravel Experience

100%

96%

67%

27%

22%

10%

8%

Concern for Concern for EnvironmentEnvironment

Universal Design Service AttributesImportant for Entire Service Population

Flexibility & SpeedFlexibility & Speed

Range of Attitudes for all Potential CustomersAll Market Segments Combined

More Sensitive

0.50.5 1.01.0 1.51.5 2.02.0 2.52.5 3.03.0 3.53.5

Less Sensitive

-1.5-1.5 -1.0-1.0 -0.5-0.5-2.0-2.0-3.0-3.0 -2.5-2.5-3.5-3.5

Indifferent

00

Personal TravelPersonal TravelExperienceExperience

Personal SafetyPersonal Safety

Time &Time &ProductivityProductivity

CostCost

StressStress

CrowdsCrowds

High Sensitivity toExperience

Road Runners

MediumSensitivity toExperience

Structure of Market Segments San Diego Region

Residents in SANDAG Service Area

Less Need For Flexibility & Speed More Need For Flexibility & Speed

HighSensitivity toExperience

ConventionalCruisers

LowSensitivity toExperience

Easy Goers

High Sensitivity to

Personal Safety

Cautious Runabouts

LowSensitivity toExperience

Flexible Flyers

LowSensitivity to

Personal Safety

Intrepid Trekkers

“Need for flexibility and speed”

“Personal travel experience”

“Sensitivity topersonal safety”

Quantifying Tradeoffs How Much Do Flexible Flyers Value Different Options?

Having real time arrival informationHaving real time arrival information

Save 5 minute in-vehicle travel timeSave 5 minute in-vehicle travel time

Improve peak headway by 5 minImprove peak headway by 5 min

Save 5 minute driving accessSave 5 minute driving access

Reduce cost by 50 centsReduce cost by 50 cents

ShuttleShuttle

No transferNo transfer

Guaranteed seatGuaranteed seat

Save 5 minute parking search timeSave 5 minute parking search time

Improve off-peak headway by 5 minImprove off-peak headway by 5 min

Save 5 minute walking access timeSave 5 minute walking access time

Competitive PositioningExisting Assets

Local governmentcooperation

Financial resources

Understand CustomersUnderstand Customers

Market SegmentationMarket Segmentation

Mode Choice AnalysisMode Choice Analysis

ServicePlanning Tool

(SPT)

Strategic RoadmapUnderstanding Markets

Service Planning Tool

Segmentation & SEM

Segment Locations & Characteristics

Travel Demand Model Output

Trip Tables

Base LOSIVTT

FrequenciesTransit NetworkParking Supply

FaresSeat Availability

Census Data or Travel Model

Socioeconomics

Service Planning ToolArcGIS User Interface

Network StructurePerformance VariablesCustomer Experience

RidershipMode

Peak vs. Off-peakTrip Purpose

Segment-Specific Mode Choice Models

Quantify Tradeoffs between Service Characteristics

Understand CustomersUnderstand Customers

Market SegmentationMarket Segmentation

Mode Choice AnalysisMode Choice Analysis

Understand MarketsUnderstand Markets

Origin – Destination VolumesOrigin – Destination Volumes

Other Travel Market ConditionsOther Travel Market Conditions

TransitCompetitiveness

Factor(TCF)

Strategic RoadmapUnderstanding Markets

Understanding MarketsIdentify Places Where Transit is Competitive

Trip Intensity Trip generation & attraction Time of day Trip purpose

Competitive Advantage for TransitCongestionTransit priorityParking scarcity and Price

Concentration of Target Market Segments

Transit Competitiveness Factor (TCF)Each Factor Weighted by Ability to Generate Transit Trips

Transit Competitiveness

Factor

Transportation Land Use Factors

Customer Types Trip Purposes

Trip Density

Parking Search Time

Parking Cost

Auto Access, Egress Time

Congestion

Pedestrian Friendliness

Road Runners

Cautious Runabouts

Intrepid Trekkers

Flexible Flyers

Conventional Cruisers

Easy Goers

Work

School

Other

Origin TCF – Santa Clara County Transit Competitive

Transit Competitive

11 percent of trips go to transit competitive destinations

Destination TCF Transit competitive threshold = 30 jobs per gross acre

Questions and Answers