Transportation Development Division Oregon Integrated Land Use and Oregon Integrated Land Use and Transportation Models Transportation Models Part 1: Statewide Model Part 2: MetroScope Part 3: Land Use Scenario Developer (LUSDR) Prepared for the Oregon MPO Consortium May 1, 2007
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Transportation Development Division Oregon Integrated Land Use and Transportation Models Part 1: Statewide Model Part 2: MetroScope Part 3: Land Use Scenario.
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Transportation Development Division
Oregon Integrated Land Use and Oregon Integrated Land Use and Transportation ModelsTransportation Models
Part 1: Statewide ModelPart 2: MetroScopePart 3: Land Use Scenario Developer (LUSDR)
Prepared for the Oregon MPO ConsortiumMay 1, 2007
Transportation Development Division
Model FeaturesModel Features
Model Name Activity Modeled Integration Model Type
StatewideModel
Land Use-Transport -Economy
Fully Integrated
Equilibrium &Simulation
MetroScope Land Use-Transport Connected Equilibrium
LUSDR Land Use-Transport Connected Stochastic
Transportation Development Division
Oregon Integrated Land Use and Oregon Integrated Land Use and Transportation ModelsTransportation Models
Prepared for the Oregon MPO ConsortiumPresented by Becky Knudson
ODOT Transportation Development DivisionMay 1, 2007
Part 1: Statewide Model
Transportation Development Division
Why a Statewide ModelWhy a Statewide Model
• Provide forecast of interurban and interregional traffic on state highways.– With out a statewide model, traffic forecasting can only
extrapolate past growth trends. These forecasts are not very sensitive to land use and transport policies.
– As the state gets more populous, the amount of interurban travel becomes more substantial. There is a need, particularly in the I-5 corridor, to simulate the effects of present and potential land use and transport policies.
Transportation Development Division
Modeling in OregonModeling in Oregon
• Coordinated through Oregon Modeling Steering Committee (OMSC)
• OMSC established to:– Realize gains from shared knowledge– Avoid duplication of effort– Combine resources to benefit new modeling
efforts
• Good progress in Travel Demand modeling• Time to turn more attention to Land Use
modeling
Transportation Development Division
Why is Land Use Modeling Important?Why is Land Use Modeling Important?
• Land use in most transport models is an input into a model– Must rely on separate forecast for land use and
entered into model
• Modeling land use: – Reduces land use input data burden – Provides more objectivity and consistency– Captures redistribution/density of land uses in
response to changes– Is more theoretically consistent
Transportation Development Division
Why Why IntegratedIntegrated Land Use Transport Land Use Transport Models?Models?
• Produce future land use forecasts that account for transportation
• Analyze cumulative and indirect effects of proposed transportation projects
• Evaluate compliance with land use• Explore transportation opportunities• Evaluate economic effects of policies• Facilitate integrated land use and
transportation planning
Transportation Development Division
Why Use an Integrated Economic, Why Use an Integrated Economic, Transportation & Land Use ModelTransportation & Land Use Model
• Transport systems affect economic production and the distribution of land use and vise versa.
• The potential impacts of transport system changes on land use is a concern
• Land use policy may be strategic manner in which to address transportation issues
• Economic, land use and transportation relationships are complex. Predicting outcomes of proposed policies and/or projects involves huge computational burden. Computer models are necessary tools for useful analysis.
Transportation Development Division
• Gen1 (1999)– Proof of Concept– Large analysis zones– Few industry sectors– Only two land use types– Simple network– Truck freight only
Oregon’s Statewide Integrated Oregon’s Statewide Integrated Land Use – Transport - Economic ModelLand Use – Transport - Economic Model
Transportation Development Division
Oregon’s Statewide Integrated Oregon’s Statewide Integrated Land Use – Transport - Economic ModelLand Use – Transport - Economic Model
• Transitional Model (Oregon2TM)– More detail– Modular
• Equilibrium modules • Simulation modules
– Remains a regional model, does not include urban detail
– Consistent with MPO models
Transportation Development Division
County Boundaries County Boundaries (36)(36)
Transportation Development Division
(28)
Transportation Development Division
Oregon2TM Beta Zones Oregon2TM Beta Zones (519)(519)
Transportation Development Division
Oregon2TM Alpha Zones Oregon2TM Alpha Zones (2,950)(2,950)
Transportation Development Division
Oregon2TM Alpha ZonesOregon2TM Alpha Zones
Transportation Development Division
RVMPO Zones Compared to RVMPO Zones Compared to OR2TMOR2TM
RVMPO zones = 744
OR2TM alpha zones = 154
OR2TM beta zones = 23
Transportation Development Division
Statewide Model Relationship to MPO Statewide Model Relationship to MPO ModelsModels
• Provide alternative population and economic forecasts for MPO model area
• Provide intercity travel data for use in MPO external model
• Provide information for major improvements that affect travel beyond MPO boundary (e.g., Salem Third Bridge)
• Provide information to assist with future land use allocation for MPOs with no land use model
Transportation Development Division
Structure of Oregon2 Transitional ModelStructure of Oregon2 Transitional Model
ED
SPG1
CT
Employmentby Industry
Construction$Totals
ActivityFlows$
TS (EMME/2 equilibrium)
ED-Regional Economics & DemographicsALD-Aggregate Land DevelopmentSPG1-Synthetic Population Synthesizer (sample)PI-Production Allocations & InteractionsSPG2-Synthetic Population Synthesizer (locate)PT-Personal Travel (auto/transit)CT-Commercial Transport (truck)ET-External Transport (auto/truck)TS-Transport Supply (assignment)
Aggregate/EquilibriumMicro-simulationAlpha-Beta Zone ConversionNext Time Period Feedback
Production Totals
SpaceInventory
TravelTime/Costs
OD Trip TablesTravelTime/Costs
Space PricesOccupied Space
ActivityLogsums
SPG2 Mode ChoiceLogsums
PI
PT
ALD
HH Labor by zone
SyntheticPopulation
ET
Import/ExportGrowth Rates
ED
SPG1
CT
Employmentby Industry
Construction$Totals
ActivityFlows$
TS (EMME/2 equilibrium)
ED-Regional Economics & DemographicsALD-Aggregate Land DevelopmentSPG1-Synthetic Population Synthesizer (sample)PI-Production Allocations & InteractionsSPG2-Synthetic Population Synthesizer (locate)PT-Personal Travel (auto/transit)CT-Commercial Transport (truck)ET-External Transport (auto/truck)TS-Transport Supply (assignment)
Aggregate/EquilibriumMicro-simulationAlpha-Beta Zone ConversionNext Time Period Feedback
Production Totals
SpaceInventory
TravelTime/Costs
OD Trip TablesTravelTime/Costs
Space PricesOccupied Space
ActivityLogsums
SPG2 Mode ChoiceLogsums
PI
PT
ALD
HH Labor by zone
SyntheticPopulation
ET
Import/ExportGrowth Rates
Transportation Development Division
Policy AnalysisPolicy Analysis
• Willamette Valley • Bridge Limitations Study• Newberg-Dundee EIS• OTP
Transportation Development Division
By 2050Willamette Valley population will increase from 2.3 million to nearly 4 million
Governor initiated a big-picture brain-storming on alternative futures for Oregon’s most populous region as well as an agriculturally important area.
Willamette Valley Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation FuturesAlternative Transportation Futures
Transportation Development Division
Project ApproachProject Approach
• Help decision-makers understand:– How different land use and transportation
policies are likely to affect land use patterns and state highway congestion
– Sensitivities of growth patterns and highway congestion to different land use and transportation policies
Transportation Development Division
FindingsFindings
• Supply of land affects price and therefore where people and jobs locate
• What transportation improvements and where they are made affects where people and jobs locate
• How people pay for transportation affects where they locate
Transportation Development Division
The 2001 Legislature asked: “If a new freeway is constructed in Central or Eastern Oregon, will it divert traffic and development from I-5 in the Willamette Valley?”
US 97
US 385
Legislative Directive to Study a Legislative Directive to Study a New Freeway in Eastern OregonNew Freeway in Eastern Oregon
Transportation Development Division
• Simple Answer: No. • Analysis revealed:
– New highway would increase speed and reduce travel time from border to border
– May benefit Washington or California more than Eastern or Central Oregon
– Where access to the Willamette Valley improves, the larger market attracts more growth to Valley
• Better question:– “What can we do to divert traffic and development
from I-5 and the Willamette Valley to Eastern and Central Oregon?”
Over 500 Oregon bridges identified in 2001 as structurally deficient. Cost to repair/replace $4.7 billion.
The statewide model used to evaluate alternative bridge investment strategies. Final investment plan based on bridge cost, economic costs, community/regional impacts.
A bypass would likely:• Stimulate economic growth in McMinnville • Support greater travel for all purposes• Have minimal effects on smaller communities in
Yamhill County
Commuter effects vary with a bypass:• Increased commuting by residents west of
McMinnville to Portland east of McMinnville• Commuters east of McMinnville shift commute