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Transportation Construction Market
UpdateAlison Premo Black, PhD
ARTBA Senior VP & Chief Economist
September 25, 2018Pennsylvania Highway Information
Nominal Obligations Adjusted for Project Costs Adjusted for Inflation
Source: ARTBA analysis of the FAST Act. Project costs are expected to grow in line with historical averages according to the ARTBA price index, which takes into account changes in material prices, industry wages and overall inflation. Inflation forecast of 2% from CBO's August 2015 report An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2015 to 2025.
Total HTF outlays Proj. HTF revenues Shortfall after FAST Act transfers spent
Source: Congressional Budget Office Highway Trust Fund baseline, April 2018
Total may not add up due to rounding.
Highway Trust Fund Revenue Crisis Will Return
Developments in State & Local Funding
8
Pennsylvania State Highway & Bridge Program Revenue Mix Has Changed Over Time
39%Highway
User Fees, Tolls & Taxes, $3.9B
Other State
Revenues*, $1.8,
18%
Bonds, $2.4B, 24%
Federal Investment $1.9B,
19%
2016State Highway Program Revenues
*Other state revenues include the state General Fund, sales taxes, local government reimbursement and other imposts.Source: Federal Aid Highway Statistics, Table SF-1
Highway User Fees,
Tolls & Taxes,
$2.9B, 72%
Other State
Revenues*, $220M,
6%
Bonds, $2M, <1%
Federal Investment,
$900M, 22%
2000State Highway Program Revenues
Pennsylvania State Highway & Bridge Program Spending Mix Has Changed Over Time
Capital Outlay, $4.9B, 38%
Maintenance, $4.5B, 35%
Admin & Research, $0.5B, 4%
Law Enf., $0.8B, 6%
Grants, $0.4B, 3%
Bonds, $1.9B, 14%
2016
Source: Federal Aid Highway Statistics, Table SF-2
Capital Outlay, $2.3B, 55%Maintenance,
$1.1B, 27%
Admin & Research, $0.2B, 4%
Law Enf., $0.4B, 9%
Grants, $0.2B, 5%
2000
Pennsylvania State Highway & Bridge Capital Outlays
31 States & DC Have Increased Motor Fuel Related Taxes 51 Times Since 1997
AK
WA
OR
CA
ID
MT
WY
NV
AZ
CO
NM
ND
SD
NE
KS
OK
TX
MN
IA
MO
WI
IL
MI
IN
KY
TN
MS AL
OH
NY
PA
VA
NC
GA
FL
ME
WV
AR
UT
HI
SC
VT
CTRI
DENJ
MDDC
NH
MA
LA
Approved 2013-2017 Approved Prior to 2013
Source: TIAC™ State Funding Initiatives Report, Sept. 2018
One Bill Approved
AK
WA
OR
CA
ID
MT
WY
NV
AZ
CO*
NM
ND
SD
NE
KS
OK
TX
MN
IA
MO*
WI
IL
MI
IN
KY
TN
MS AL
OH
NY
PA
VA
NC
GA
FL
ME*
WV
AR
UT
HI
SC
VT
CT*RI
DENJ
MDDC
NH
MA
LA*
States Approving Transportation Funding Legislation 2015-2018
Two Bills Approved
Includes transportation funding increases and legislation related to funding, including lockboxes, P3 authorizations, ending diversions, task force or study, pilot program, etc.
Three or More Bills Approved
* Measure pending voter approval
Voters Approve $4.25B in Transportation Funding – Nov. 7
#ARTBATIAC
Source: ARTBA TIACTM Research, Updated November 9, 2017.