Transport Energy report launch 2014 presentation

Transport Energy in Ireland

with particular focus on 2007 – 2013

Overview

– Key Characteristics of the Transport Sector

– Private Cars

– Road Freight

– Other Transport Modes

– Overall Trends

– Conclusions

Key Characteristics of the Transport Sector

Share of Total Primary Energy Demand

Transport33%

Industry24%

Residential27%

Commercial / Public14%

Agriculture / Fisheries

2%

Share of Total Primary Energy Demand

Transport32.7%

Electricity33.5%

Thermal33.9%

Transport Sector Fuel Mix 2013

Petrol28.0%

Diesel55.3%

Jet Kerosene14.2%

LPG0.1%

Biofuel2.4% Electricity

0.1%

Transport Sector Fuel Mix 2013

Fossil Fuels98%

Renewables2%~80% Biofuels

Imported

100% Fossil Fuels Imported

~99.5% Transport Energy Imported

Transport Sector Fuel Import Costs 2013

Transport Energy Imports

€3.5 billion

All Other Energy Imports

€3.0 billion

Share of Total Greenhouse-Gas Emissions 2012

Transport18.8%

Agriculture32.1%Energy

21.9%

Residential10.7%

Industry & Commercial

14.7%

Waste1.8%

Source: EPA

58% of Energy-Related Non-ETS Emissions in 2013

35% of Energy-Related Emissions in 2013

Share of Transport Sector Energy by Mode 2013

Road Freight21%

Private car43%

Aviation14%

Navigation1%

Rail1%

Public Passenger

4%

Fuel Tourism6%

Unspecified10%

Private Cars

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Num

ber o

f Veh

icle

s (t

hous

and)

Imported Used Cars New Cars

New Cars & Used Imports

07-13:New Cars down 61%New+Imports down 49%Car fleet down 0.7%

2013: 41% used Imports

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2007 2014 Jan-Jun

G (>225)F (191-225)E (171-190)D (156-170)C (141-155)B (121-140)A (<=120)

Share of New Cars by Emissions Band

67%

95%gCO2/km

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013 New Cars 2013 Used Imports

Not available

Band G

Band F

Band E

Band D

Band C

Band B

Band A

Share of Used Imports by Emissions Band

94%

64%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2007 2013

OtherPetrolDiesel

Share of New Cars by Fuel Type

72%

27%

73%

27%

CO2 Emissions of Average New Car

166.1

162.6

120.5

165.8

167.5

121.1

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

CO2

g/km

Petrol Diesel

Petrol down 26%

Diesel down 28%

Specific Consumption of Average New Car

2.32

2.30

1.75

2.26

2.32

1.70

1.51.61.71.81.92.02.12.22.32.42.5

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

MJ/

km

Petrol Diesel

Petrol down 24%

Diesel down 27%

Average Engine Size of New Cars

2.1

1.8

1.51.3

1.5 1.7

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

Engi

ne S

ize

Litr

es

New diesel cars New petrol cars All new cars

Private Car Average Annual Mileage

17.57 17.37

16.3914.67

25.3023.69

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Ave

rage

ann

ual k

m ('

000)

Petrol & Diesel Combined Private Petrol Cars Private Diesel Cars

Private Car Total Annual Mileage

23.0

33.7

18.717.5

4.4

16.2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Tota

l ann

ual k

ilom

etre

s (b

illio

n)

Petrol & Diesel Combined Private Petrol Cars Private Diesel Cars

Road Freight

Heavy Goods Vehicle Activity

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Inde

x 19

91 =

100

Vehicle Kilometres Tonnes Carried Tonne Kilometres

Source: CSO

HGV Activity – Absolute Change in tonne-km

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,0001990-2007 2007-2013

Chan

ge in

Mill

ion

Tonn

e km

Delivery to road works/building sitesImport & export

Other work

Delivery to retail outlets

Delivery to factories

Delivery to wholesalers

Carriage of agri-products

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Num

ber o

f Veh

icle

s (t

hous

and)

<1.5 t LGV 1.5-2.0 t LGV 2.0-2.5 t HGV >2.5 t HGV

Total Commercial Vehicle Fleet

HGV

LGV

31% of HGV “Non-relevant”(40% of 2-5t)

1.5t-2.5t

New Light Goods Vehicles by Emissions Band

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2011 2012 2013Band A Band B Band C Band DBand E Band F Band G Unspecified

Estimate of HGV & LGV Energy Demand

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

ktoe

HGV LGV

Other Transport Modes

Other Modes of Transport: Basis of Estimations– Aviation: Kerosene sales

– Rail: Irish Rail

– Bus: CIE, industry data, diesel rebate scheme

– Taxi: NCT data

– Coastal and inland water-way navigation: Marine diesel sales

– Fuel tourism: Dept. ECLG

Aviation Activity

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Pass

enge

r Num

bers

(mill

ions

)

Domestic UK Europe Intercontinental Transit

Fuel Tourism

-0.60

-0.50

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Euro

Petrol Price Differnetial Between Rep. of Ireland & UK

Fuel Tourism

-0.60

-0.50

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Euro

Diesel Price Differential Between Rep. of Ireland & UK

Overall Trends

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Mto

e

Industry Transport Residential Commercial/Public Services Agriculture

Primary Energy by Sector

+183% 1990-2007 -26% 2007-2013

Absolute Change in Final Energy by Mode

-800-600-400-200

0200400600800

1,0001,200

Change 1990-2007 Change 2007-2013 Net Change 1990-2013

ktoe

Private car HGV Road Freight AviationFuel Tourism Public Passenger (road) NavigationRail

% Change in Final Energy by Mode 07-13

-50%

-45%

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

HGV RoadFreight Private car

PublicPassenger Rail Aviation Navigation Total

Transport Energy Efficiency

100 98 95 93 92 91 90 8579 76

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Inde

x W

RT 1

995

Transport ODEX Indicator

Transport NEEAP3 Targets

12%

24%

32%

14%

14%4%

Overall Savings 2020 (GWh)

Public Sector

Business

Buildings

Transport

Energy Supply

Cross Sectoral

2%20%

65%

7%6%

Mobility-Transport Savings 2020 (GWh)

Electric Vehicledeployment

Vehicle RegistrationTax and Annual MotorTax rebalancing

Improved fueleconomy of private carfleet (EU Regulation)

More efficient roadtraffic movements

Aviation efficiency

Biofuels Targets

1.2%2.5%

4.8%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Biofuels Share of Total Petrol & Diesel Consumption

Biofuels Share (%) Weighted Biofuels Share (%)National 2020 target (10%) National 2010 target (3%)National 2008 target (2%)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Num

ber o

f Veh

icle

s

Monthly Number of Electric Vehicles Registered

Electric Vehicles

54 New EV in 2013(Total 420)

215 EV Jan–Aug 14

Revised Target of 50,000 EV by 2020

Conclusions

Conclusions

Transport Sector:– Responsible for largest share of primary & final energy

demand and energy-related CO2 emissions

– Almost entirely dependent on imported fossil fuels

– Responsible for just over half of Ireland’s fossil fuel import bill (~ €3.5 billion of imports)

– Experienced 25% reduction in final energy consumption and 26% reduction in CO2 emissions

Conclusions

Private Cars:– Significant shift in the purchasing patterns of new vehicles

toward “A” emissions band and away from petrol towards diesel

Heavy Goods Vehicles:– Activity down by 51% between 2007 and 2013

Electric Vehicles– Increase in sales in 2014 but significant gap to 2020

targets

ConclusionsFurther Work and Data Requirements:

– Data required on specific fuel consumption of HGVs

– Further analysis of LGV and goods vehicles not captured by CSO data

– Improve estimations of bus energy demand

– Improve understanding of rail, aviation and waterway navigation energy demand

– Improve data on effects modal shifting

– Further categorization of remaining unspecified energy

The Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland is partly financed by Ireland’s EU Structural Funds Programme co-funded by the Irish Government and the European Union.

Thank you.

Transport Final Energy by Mode

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Mtoe

Private car HGV Aviation Public Passenger Rail

Fuel Tourism Navigation LGV Unspecified

Energy Flows in the Transport Sector

Share of Energy Related CO2 Emissions

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Mt C

O2

Transport Residential Services Agriculture Industry

35% in 2013

Share of Energy Related Non-ETS CO2 Emissions

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Mt C

O2

Industry non-ETS (2005 on) Agriculture ServicesResidential Transport Target

2020 Target: 20% below 2005 level

58% in 2013

Transport & CO2 Emissions Reduction Targets

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1990 2000 2005 2008 2012 2020

MtC

O2

Transport CO2 Kyoto Target Non-ETS Target

Kyoto target: Average emissions between 2008 and 2012 to not exceed 113% of 1990 levels

Non-ETS target: 2020 emissions to be 20% below 2005 levels