Translatedcopyof2 GlobalChange Verchot 06.PDF

8/19/2019 Translatedcopyof2 GlobalChange Verchot 06.PDF

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Mitig Beradaptasi Strat Glob Ganti DOI 10,1007 / s11027-007-9105-6

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per%ba&anI'li() (eng&%b%ng'an adaptasi dan (itigasi (elal%i agro*orestr+

#o%is er.&ot Meine an !oordi' Serigne andi 3o( 3o(i.& 4&in Ong "lain "lbre.&t ens Ma.'ensen 4+nt&ia Bantilan "n%pa(a 4&er+l $al(

diteri(a) 25 "g%st%s 200 / diteri(a) 2 Mei 2006 8 Springer S.ien.e B%siness Media B 2007

"bstra' $ertanian adala& %sa&a (an%sia +ang paling rentan ter&adap per%ba&an i'li( $ertanian tropis, pertanian ter%ta(as%bsisten sangat rentan, seperti petani 'e.il tida' (e(ili'i s%(ber da+a +ang (e(adai %nt%' beradaptasi dengan per%ba&ani'li( Se(entara agro*orestri (%ng'in (e(ain'an peran penting dala( (eng%rangi a'%(%lasi at(os*er gas r%(a& 'a.a :G;,

%ga (e(ili'i peran %nt%' ber(ain dala( (e(bant% petani 'e.il beradaptasi dengan per%ba&an i'li( Dala( t%lisan ini, 'ita(e(eri'sa data pada potensi (itigasi agro*orestr+ di daera& tropis le(bab dan s%b-le(bab a(i 'e(%dian (en+ai'an b%'tiil(ia& +ang (engara& 'e &arapan ba&a agro*orestri %ga (e(ili'i peran penting dala( adaptasi per%ba&an i'li(, ter%ta(a bagi

petani pe(egang 'e.il a(i (en+i(p%l'an dengan pertan+aan penelitian prioritas +ang &ar%s diaab tentang peranagro*orestri dala( (itigasi dan adaptasi per%ba&an i'li(

$etani e+ords pertanian 3ropi.al < s'ala 'e.il < $e(bang%nan pedesaan < $engentasan 'e(is'inan

# er.&ot :=; < M an !oordi' < S andi < 3 3o(i.& < 4 Ong Internasional, $%sat >nt%' esear.& In "gro*orestr+

:I4"?;, >nited !ations "@en%e, $O BoA 0677, !airobi, en+a e-(ail) #@er.&ot.giarorg

" "lbre.&t Instit%t de e.&er.&e po%r le De @eloppe(ent :ID; dan $%sat Internasional %nt%' $enelitian di "gro*orestr+:I4"?;, >nited !ations "@en%e, $O BoA 0677, !airobi, en+a

$rogra( Ma.'ensen #ing'%ngan Cid%p $BB :>!$;, >nited !ations "@en%e, $O BoA 0552, !airobi, en+a

4 3ana(an Bantilan < "n%pa(a Internasional esear.& Instit%te %nt%' Se(i-"rid 3ropi.s :I4IS"3;, $atan.&er% 502 2"nd&ra $rades&, India

4 $al( 3&e art& Instit%te di 4ol%(bia >ni@ersit+, M4 5, 55 116 Eest Street, !e For', !F 10027, >S"

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Mitig Beradaptasi Strat Glob Ganti

1 $enda&%l%an

!egara-negara ber'e(bang a'an (enangg%ng beban per%ba&an i'li( dan paling (enderita dari da(pa' negati*n+a on@ensiglobal tida' .%'%p e*e'ti* %nt%' (eng&enti'an pening'atan gas r%(a& 'a.a di at(os*er :G; 'onsentrasi, dan 'a(i se'arang(eneri(a ba&a dri@er %ta(a dari per%ba&an i'li( tida' a'an ber&enti >pa+a (itigasi 'arena it% &an+a a'an (e(beri'an

pel%na'an sebagian dari da(pa' per%ba&an i'li( I'li( lo'al dan e'osiste( darat a'an ber%ba&, (engan.a( biota dan peng&id%pan (an%sia !a(%n, ba&'an sebagai per%ba&an i'li(, pangan dan prod%'si serat, asa ling'%ngan dan 'e&id%pan pedesaan &ar%s (ening'at'an, dan b%'an &an+a diperta&an'an Stat%s %o di negara ber'e(bang tida' dapat diteri(a !egara-negara ber'e(bang di&adap'an dengan 'eb%t%&an (endesa' %nt%' pe(bang%nan, %nt%' (ening'at'an 'eta&anan pangan,(eng%rangi 'e(is'inan dan (e(beri'an standar &id%p +ang la+a' bagi pop%lasi +ang ber'e(bang

$ersentase besar dari pop%lasi negara-negara ber'e(bang bergant%ng pada pertanian %nt%' (ata pen.a&arian (ere'a$er%ba&an i'li( s%da& (e(pengar%&i pertanian di negara-negara negati* dan sit%asi ini (%ng'in (e(b%r%' Ban+a' %sa&a a'andiperl%'an %nt%' (engintegrasi'an apa +ang di'eta&%i tentang per%ba&an i'li( (%ng'in 'e dala( peren.anaan pe(bang%nannasional :"be+- G%naardena et al 200; #ang'a&-lang'a& (itigasi di se'tor pertanian dan 'e&%tanan +ang (eng&asil'an

ban+a' (inat sebagai s%(ber potensial %nt%' peng&asilan ta(ba&an %nt%' daera& pedesaan din+ata'an le(a& dan sebagai sarana(e(i.% adaptasi per%ba&an i'li( Dala( on@ensi erang'a era $BB tentang $er%ba&an I'li( proses negosiasi :>! ?444;,

penge(bangan 'egiatan (itigasi dan adaptasi tela& ditangani dengan &al-&al +ang terpisa&, dan adaptasi sebagian besar diabai'an dala( (end%'%ng (itigasi Cal ini &an+a bar%-bar% ba&a lang'a&-lang'a& adaptasi +ang diberi'an lebi& penting

dala( negosiasi >!?444 :li&at >!?444 4O$H dan De'larasi Del&i;

$e(ba&asan potensi sinergi antara adaptasi dan tinda'an (itigasi &an+a bar% (%lai dan perdebatan adala& terlal% seringdi'%rangi (enadi dis'%si tentang bia+a adaptasi global +ang dibanding'an (itigasi global $erdebatan bar%-bar% ini dala(

proses >!?444 pada &%b%ngan antara lang'a&-lang'a& adaptasi dan (itigasi global 'e'%rangan at 'arena '%rangn+a pengala(an ber&%b%ngan di tana& Dis'%si sering diperla'%'an dengan .ara +ang sangat %(%( dan tida' se.ara '&%s%s ter'aitdengan se'tor +ang berbeda seperti pertanian ata% 'e&%tanan Seb%a& pe(a&a(an pra'tis tentang &%b%ngan antara lang'a&-lang'a& adaptasi dan (itigasi bel%( ada !a(%n, %nt%' beberapa de'ade penelitian se'arang pertanian tela& ber*o'%s pada

pertan+aan (ening'at'an 'eta&anan :ter&adap 'e'eringan, erosi, &ilangn+a 'es%b%ran, dll; dan prod%'ti@itas siste( pertanianMening'at'an siste( 'eta&anan se.ara langs%ng ber&%b%ngan dengan pening'atan 'apasitas adaptasi petani

"gro*orestr+ (e(beri'an .onto& '&%s%s dari serang'aian pra'ti' ino@ati* +ang diran.ang %nt%' (ening'at'an prod%'ti@itasdengan .ara +ang sering (e(beri'an 'ontrib%si %nt%' (itigasi per%ba&an i'li( (elal%i pen+erapan 'arbon diting'at'an, dan+ang %ga bisa (e(per'%at 'e(a(p%an siste( %nt%' (engatasi da(pa' b%r%' dari per%ba&an 'ondisi i'li( Ma'ala& ini

(eli&at 'e dala( adapti* (itigasi tasi dan *%ngsi dari siste( agro*orestr+, reeAa(ines 'onsep 'eberlan%tan dan (enge'splorasi bagai(ana siste( agro*orestr+ :dan ino@asi lain dala( &al ini; (%ng'in (ening'at'an 'eta&anan dan dengan de(i'ian(eng%rangi 'erentanan petani 'e.il di daera& tropis

2 da(pa' +ang di&arap'an dari per%ba&an i'li( ter&adap prod%'si pertanian

Mes'ip%n tela& ada 'e%nt%ngan dala( beberapa ta&%n tera'&ir, lebi& dari H00 %ta orang di d%nia (asi& 'e'%rangan gii 'ronis,dan 1100 %ta &id%p dala( 'e(is'inan absol%t :?"O 1999;

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Mitig Beradaptasi Strat Glob per%ba&an

besar persentase dari pop%lasi di negara ber'e(bang berasal peng&id%pan (ere'a dari pertanian dan 'arena it% sangat rentanter&adap per%ba&an i'li( $op%lasi negara-negara ber'e(bang, '&%s%sn+a di "sia Selatan dan s%b-Sa&ara "*ri'a ter%s t%(b%&

pada ting'at +ang tinggi, sedang'an ting'at daera& dipanen tela& (engala(i stagnasi ata% (en%r%n di ban+a' daera& gand%((e(prod%'si d%nia :Mann 1997; >nt%' (e(beri (a'an se(%a orang se.ara (e(adai, prod%'si pangan d%nia &ar%s d%a 'alilipat dala( 0 ta&%n 'e depan :4lea@er dan S.&reiber 199; 3api, 'e'%rangan prod%'si sereal negeri di negara ber'e(bang

diper'ira'an a'an (elebar dari sel%r%& dari 100 %ta ton pada ta&%n 1997 (enadi se'itar 190 %ta ton pada ta&%n 2020:osegrant et al 2001; Di ban+a' daera& di d%nia, a'an ada 'e(a(p%an terbatas %nt%' @arietas bar% dan pening'atan

pengg%naan p%p%' %nt%' lebi& (ening'at'an &asil :C%ang et al 2002; Di atas ini, degradasi s%(ber da+a tana& dan air tela&(en.apai proporsi +ang (eng'&aatir'an :asil 199HJ S(aling et al 1997; Dan a'an (er%sa' %pa+a (asa depan %nt%' (ening'at'an prod%'si pertaniand%.ti@it+o@ertaAed

$er%ba&an i'li(a'an (ena(ba& stres ta(ba&an %nt%' siste( +ang s%da& isi'o 'e&ilangan 'e%nt%ngan dari e@ol%si Cia%,+ang sebagian besar tela& (eng&ilang'an 'elaparan dari ta&%n 1950-an dan 1960-an adala& n+ata Misaln+a, pro+e'si(en%n%''an ba&a "sia Selatan (%si( panas &%an a'an tert%nda dan (enadi '%rang tertent%, dan s%&% +ang (ening'at a'an

paling intens sela(a (%si( dingin :#al et al 2001; Beberapa st%di pe(odelan +ang (enggab%ng'an analisis spasial dengananalisis e*e' *isiologis dari per%ba&an 4O

2,

.%ra& &%an dan s%&% tela&dila'%'an di "sia Selatan %nt%' (enilai da(pa' per%ba&an i'li( ter&adap prod%'si tana(an :"ggaral dan Sin&a 199J aodan Sin&a 199J rop** et al 1996J Berge et al 1997J Saseendran et al 2000J "ggaral dan Mall 2002; St%di-st%di ini tela&(en%n%''an pen%r%nan (%si( tana( dan &asil +ang paling tana(an sebagai pening'atan s%&% $eng%rangan terseb%t &an+asebagian dii(bangi ole& respon positi* ter&adap 'onsentrasi 4O

2

pening'atan $etani di negara ber'e(bang tela& (e(ili'i se%(la& tantangan 'eberlan%tan, dan per%ba&an i'li( a'an(e(pengar%&i se%(la& ini :3abel 1; Misaln+a, per%ba&an i'li( a'an (e(pengar%&i insiden &a(a pen+a'it dan @ir%lensidengan .ara +ang '%rang dipa&a(i saat ini $en+a'it dan pop%lasi serangga sangat tergant%ng pada s%&% dan 'ele(baban, dan

per%ba&an bisa (eng%ba& distrib%si dan @ir%lensi (ere'a Misaln+a, di 16H4 panang periode laten %nt%' 'arat '%ning 'e.il, tapi'enai'an s%&% (elebi&i

3abel 1 4onto& *a'tor stres +ang (e(pengar%&i petani 'e.il di daera& tropis dengan indi'asi da(pa' per%ba&an i'li( ter&adap

stres *a'tor 12 Stres ?a'tor I'li(

sin+al

3ana& (enga'ses !o Mar'ets :inp%t, o%tp%t, a'ses, &arga; Fa $engeta&%an :prinsip dasar, topi ino@ati*; ada 3e.&nologies:inter@ensi strategis = ta'tis; !o "ir :'e'eringan, banir, irigasi, drainase; Fa 'es%b%ran tana& Fa Ca(a = pen+a'it Fa On-*ar('era :'egiatan %'%ran r%(a& tangga, o**-*ar(,

pen+a'it;

ada

G%l(a +a prod%'si $otensi plas(a n%t*a& +ang dig%na'an pelanggan Fa 3ida' p%as 3ida'


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1HH4 :!agaraan dan os&i 197H; M%n.%ln+a 'arat &ita( di %tara India pada 1960-an dan 1970-an ter'ait dengan s%&% gera'antergant%ng dari spora dari selatan 'e %tara India :!agaraan dan os&i 197H;

$er%ba&an i'li( a'an (e(ili'i e*e' langs%ng tida' &an+a pada tana(an tada& &%an, tetapi %ga pada pen+i(panan air, p%tting pening'atan stres pada 'etersediaan air %nt%' irigasi Sea' 'etersediaan air a'an terbatas, pertanian a'an bersaing %nt%' 'eg%naan lain air, lan%t (ene'an'an siste( pertanian %ga a'an ada da(pa' pada s%(ber da+a tana& $er%ba&an pola .%ra&&%an dan %(la&, dan per%ba&an s%&% a'an (e(pengar%&i pert%(b%&an tana(an (elal%i per%ba&an dala( tana& 'adar air,li(pasan dan erosi, 'e(a(p%an 'era, si'l%s &ara, salinisasi, 'eane'araga(an &a+ati, dan ba&an organi' tana& enai'an (%'aair la%t a'an (enadi (asala& bagi daera& dataran renda& dan dapat (en+ebab'an ingression gara(-air render la&an l%as .o.o' %nt%' pertanian 'on@ensional,

$er%ba&an i'li( %ga a'an sangat (engat%r 'e(bali pe(bang%nan pertanian di "*ri'a "nalisis prod%'si ag%ng di daera&tropis dengan ones dan 3&ornton :200; (en%n%''an ba&a prod%'si ag%ng di daera& tropis a'an (en%r%n sebesar 10K rata-rata, tapi ini ang'a (as'er @ariasi +ang besar "'an ada pe(enang dan pe.%ndang sebagai i'li( per%ba&an Misaln+a, daera&Sa&el dan So%t&ern "*ri.a .ender%ng (enderita se.ara tida' proporsional, sedang'an dataran tinggi "*ri'a 3i(%r .ender%ng%nt%' (eni'(ati pening'atan prod%'ti@itas

$er%ba&an i'li( +ang disebab'an &ar%s diperti(bang'an dala( terang *a'tor stres lainn+a di d%nia saat ini ter(as%' globalisasi e'ono(i, %rbanisasi dan e*e'n+a pada tenaga 'era pedesaan dan 'etersediaan la&an, pert%(b%&an pend%d%' dane*e'n+a pada air dan 'etersediaan s%(ber da+a lainn+a, &a(a tana(an dan pen+a'it, degradasi la&an dan 'es%b%ran tana& +angrenda&, 'e(is'inan, pen+a'it seperti "IDS dan (alaria, dll dala( beberapa 'as%s, da(pa' ta(ba&an te'anan %nt%' pertaniandan 'e&id%pan pedesaan dari per%ba&an i'li( (%ng'in 'e.il dibanding'an dengan ini stres lainn+a Selain it%, 'e%nt%ngan

beradaptasi pertanian ter&adap per%ba&an i'li( (%ng'in tida' (en+adari i'a (ere'a dinegasi'an ole& *a'tor-*a'tor lainMisaln+a, liberalisasi 'ebia'an perdagangan di baa& pa'saan dari peranian internasional dapat (enge'spos bar% dises%ai'antana(an / prod%' pertanian %nt%' (e(b%'a persaingan dengan prod%' dari daera& +ang tida' (enderita stres per%ba&an i'li(4onto& enis (asala& +ang s%da& tersedia Misaln+a, 'e%nt%ngan di*asilitasi ole& penelitian dan penge(bangan pertanian dansiste( pend%'%ng lainn+a %nt%' tana(an bii (in+a' di daera& 'ering dan apel dan b%nga tana(an di daera& b%'it di India, +angdibatal'an setela& 'ebia'an perdagangan pe(erinta& (engiin'an i(por liberal prod%' ini di baa& lisensi %(%( terb%'a$ili&an adaptasi bar% &ar%s 'o(patibel dengan (%n.%l per%ba&an e'ono(i +ang ter'ait dengan globalisasi Cal ini (ene(pat'ante'anan (asi& lebi& besar pada pertanian b%da+a %pa+a penelitian dan penge(bangan +ang dit%%'an %nt%' (engidenti*i'asi dan

ber'e(bang adaptasi tions op (elaan per%ba&an i'li( $er'e(bangan bar% &ar%s (e(en%&ibeberapa t%%an

penga(bil 'ep%t%sanIs% per%ba&an i'li( tela& disai'an dengan sat% set 'o(pli'asi tangg%& "da se%(la& besar

'etida'pastian :+ang (ele'at dala( 'o(ple'sitas (asala&;, seperti) potensi 'er%sa'an per(anen e'osiste(, &orion peren.anaan+ang sangat panang, la(a tertinggal antara e(isi gas r%(a& 'a.a dan e*e', @ariasi regional +ang l%as dala( pen+ebab dan e*e',ling'%p global dari (asala& dan 'eb%t%&an %nt%' (e(perti(bang'an beberapa gas r%(a& 'a.a dan aerosol !a(%n, strategi

b%r%ng %nta (en%ngg% sa(pai se(%a tainties tian per%ba&an i'li( tela& dieli(inasi a'an sangat .%pet, (engingat berbali'n+a per%ba&an ar%s dan a't% respon dari siste( la%t-at(os*er dala( proses per%ba&an global !ilai in*or(asi +ang lebi& bai' tentang per%ba&an i'li( pro .esses, da(pa', dan respon %nt%' (enang'ap risi'o ini (%ng'in (enadi besar Dengan(engidenti*i'asi s%(ber da+a +ang adaptasi dapat didasar'an 'ita dapat ber'ontrib%si pada pe(eli&araan dan peng%atan s%(ber da+a ini, dan (engenali (ana 'erentanan a'an tertinggi

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ontrib%si pertanian %nt%' (itigasi per%ba&an i'li(

Se%(la& pra'te' pertanian diting'at'an dapat (ening'at'an 'eberlan%tan siste( pertanian dan ber'ontrib%si %nt%' (eng%rangi'erentanan petani ter&adap @ariabilitas i'li( se(entara pen+erapan 'arbon dari at(os*er :3abel 2; Se.ara %(%(, 'a(i (e(ili'iide +ang bai' bagai(ana pra'te'-pra'te' ini (e(pengar%&i sa&a( 4 di agroe'osiste( :I$44 2001; a(i (e(ili'i pe(a&a(an+ang a%& lebi& (is'in dari da(pa' dari pra'te' diting'at'an pada non-'arbon dio'sida :4O

2;

gas r%(a& 'a.a Beberapa eraliations gen- dapat(e(bant% 'a(i (engantisipasi e*e' dari pra'te'-pra'te' +ang berbeda Misaln+a, (ening'at'an ! tana& gii (elal%i

pe(%p%'an tana(an dan padang r%(p%t (ening'at'an !

2

O :nitrogen .o(- po%nd; e(isi dari tana& dan'adang-'adang (eng%rangi 4C tana&

sin' :Ste%dler et al 19H9J eller et al 1990J Cansen etal 199J C%ts.& et al 199, 199J C%ts.& 1996J Mosier dan Delgado 1997; Dala( siste( dib%a&i, !

2

O 'er%gian %(%(n+a pada %r%tan 0,2-2,5K dari ! diterap'an :(isaln+a, 4rill et al2000J Eeit et al, 2001; Mas%'an +ang tinggi dari ! dan pe(adatan tana& bisa (enga'ibat'an peng%rangan asta*el 'e'%atantana& %nt%' 4C

dan ba&'an 'on@ersi tana& dari asta*el %nt%'at(os*er 4C

:(etana; (enadi s%(ber :Cansen et al 199J D%n*ield et al 1995 J $al( et al,2002; Dala( siste( di (ana 'a.ang-'a.angan +ang ber&asil (en+ebab'an n%trisi !, ada sedi'it in*or(asi tentang %(la& !

2

O +ang di&asil'an ata% e*e' pada 4C

'ons%(si $ening'atan ped%li dan banir (anae(en organi' di saa& irigasi dapat (en%r%n'an 4C

e(isi dari saa& :Eass(an et al 2000J ain et al, 2000; "gro*orestri (e(ili'i peran '&%s%s %nt%' ber(ain dala( (itigasia'%(%lasi at(os*er G :I$44 2000; Dari se(%a tana& (engg%na'an dianalisis di 3ana&-G%na'an, #and->se 4&ange and

?orestr+ laporan I$44, agro*orestr+ (enaar'an potensi tertinggi %nt%' pen+erapan 'arbon di non-"nneA I :Ga(bar 1;"gro*orestri (e(ili'i potensi tinggi seperti, b%'an 'arena it% adala& pra'te' pengg%naan la&an dengan 'epadatan 'arbon

tertinggi, tetapi 'arena ada seb%a& ila+a& besar +ang rentan %nt%' per%ba&an pengg%naan la&an :60 L 106 &a; $ening'atan

siste( 'e&%tanan agro +ang (eng%rangi 'erentanan petani s'ala 'e.il dan +ang (e(bant% (ere'a3abel 2 4onto& pra'te' pertanian +ang (enani'an perbai'an dan da(pa'n+a ter&adape(isi-4Onon

2 G Se(%a pili&an ini (ening'at'an .adangan 4 dala( lans'ap pertanian :Diadaptasi dari I$44 2000;

12 ".tion !on-4O

2 GCG

Cap%s la&an (arinal dari prod%'si Menge(bali'an la&an 'ritis !

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O Meng%rangi persiapan la&an $en%r%nan pe(ba'aran bio(assa N !

2

O $er'enal'an po&on (enadi lans'ap pertanian Manae(en beras +anglebi& bai' :'%lti@ar,

pengelolaanair;

!

2

O -4C

"gro*orestri :(anae(en +ang lebi& bai' dari po&on di

la&an

pertanian;

$eng&ap%san telanang bera N !

2

O $engelolaan Irigasi air N !

2

O $er'enal'an &ia%an 'e rotasi $ening'atan prod%'ti@itas padang r%(p%t !

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'ontrolO rosi Mening'at'an $ tana& dan Men%r%n'an perladangan berpinda& "ni(al da%r %lang li(ba& N !

2

O a.ang-'a.angan b%'an p%p%' !


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pemulihan Wetland

Pemulihan lahan kritis

Agroforestri

Forest manajemen

Penggembalaan manajemen

Beraspengelolaan

manajemenlahan pertanian

0 100 200 300 400 500 00 !00 Potensi " Pengasingan oleh 2040 #$t " %

&1'

Ga(bar 1 4arbon potensi pen+erapan +ang berbeda pengg%naan la&an dan pengelolaan $ili&an :diadaptasi dari I$44 2000;

beradaptasi dengan per%ba&an 'ondisi sering (e(en%&i pers+aratan %nt%' a*orestasi (e(en%&i s+arat / re*orestasi :" / ;a'ti@itas dala( Me'anis(e $e(bang%nan Bersi& :4DM; Siste( ini dapat dipro(osi'an (elal%i pro+e'-pro+e' 4DM %nt%' (en.ipta'an sinergi antara (itigasi dan adaptasi dan %nt%' (e(en%&i pers+aratan ba&a pro+e'-pro+e' 4DM (eng&asil'ansosial serta (an*aat ling'%ngan

Be'era (elal%i "lternati* %nt%' Slas& dan B%rn $rogra( :"SB; tela& (endo'%(entasi'an :$al( et al 200; 'arbon potensi pen+erapan siste( agro*orestr+ di pinggiran &%tan tropis +ang le(bab :Ga(bar 2; !ilai-nilai pen+erapan 'arbon %nt%' siste(agro*orestri ini dilapor'an sebagai 'arbon rata-rata, +ang (en.er(in'an *a'ta ba&a (ere'a adala& siste( rotasi dengan panen

ber%lang dan pert%(b%&an 'e(bali Siste( agro*orestri di agroe.oones ini %(%(n+a .ender%ng siste( prod%'si berbasis po&onseperti siste( &%tan 'aret dari S%(atera, .a(p%ran .o'lat dan per'eb%nan po&on b%a& a(er%n, siste( pea.& telapa' $er%, ata%siste( pin%s-pisang-'opi dari aa 3i(%r Casilini

Ga(bar 2 ing'asan sa&a( 4 pada saat at%& te(po di e'osiste( +ang berbeda

00 &%tan pri(er tropis +ang le(bab Data dari sit%s pato'an dari250 "lternati* %nt%' Slas& dan B%rn $rogra( 4ons%ltati@e Gro%p %nt%' $enelitian

$ertanian Internasional :4GI";

ah " g $

200

150

100

(and&)se $anagedhutan

sistem Agroforestri

50

*anaman+ padang rumput dan padang rumput

0


8/28

Mitig Beradaptasi Strat glob Ganti

analisis (en%n%''an ba&a 'on@ersi &%tan tropis pri(er &asil pertanian ata% padang r%(p%t di 'er%gian se'itar 70 Mg 4 &a-1Ber&asil ata% login &%tan (e(ili'i se'itar setenga& sa&a( 4 &%tan pri(er Siste( agro*orestri (engand%ng 50-75 Mg 4 &a-1dibanding'an dengan baris tana(an +ang (engand%ng 10 Mg 4 &a-1 adi (eng'on@ersi tana(an baris ata% padang r%(p%t%nt%' siste( agro*orestri dapat (ening'at'an 4 disi(pan dala( bio(assa di atas tana&

"gro*orestr+ %ga (e(banding'an dengan bai' dengan pengg%naan la&an lainn+a se&%b%ngan dengan gas r%(a& 'a.alainn+a Di S%(atera, siste( 'aret &%tan (e(ili'i lebi& renda& !

2

e(isi O dari &%tan pri(er, tetapi %ga lebi& renda& 4C

serapan :3s%r%ta et al 2000; !a(%n, siste( agro*orestri +ang (elip%ti spesies nitrogen (%ng'in tida' banding'an %ga Misaln+a, di S%(atera, berting'at 'opi dengan na%ngan po&on 'anopi polongan (e(ili'i !

2

O e(isi li(a 'ali lebi& tinggi dari 'opi terb%'a t%(b%& dan se'itarsetenga& 4C

serapan :Ga(bar er.&ot data tida' dip%bli'asi'an et al; Di $er%, siste(

agro*orestri :'opi (%ltistrata dan per'eb%nan sait pea.&; it leg%- tana(an pen%t%p (ino%s (e(ili'i lebi& renda& !

2

O e(isi dari 'ed%a e(isi intensi* dan renda& inp%t se'tor pertanian +ang (endatang, dan(irip dengan &%tan se'%nder di de'atn+a :$al( et al 2002; Serapan tana& 4C

(irip dengan siste( pengg%naan la&an lainn+a, dengan penge.%alian dari sit%s pertanian intensi*, +ang (enadi s%(ber bersi& 'e at(os*er

%ga di baa& progra( "SB, Go.'os'i et al :2001; (ela'%'an analisis tradeo** antara pen+i(panan 'arbon dan pro*itabilitas 'e&%tanan dan agro*orestr+ +ang berbeda siste( di a(er%n dan (en+i(p%l'an ba&a de*orestasi tropis(eng%nt%ng'an dan 'adang-'adang dapat (en+ebab'an peng%rangan 'e(is'inan Biasan+a, ada ti(bal bali' antara 'arbon+ang tersi(pan dan 'e%nt%ngan, dan se(entara tida' ada (enang-(enang :'arbon tinggi dan 'e%nt%ngan +ang tinggi;

pengg%naan la&an, tent% ada beberapa tida' (en+esal pili&an dengan (edia %nt%' 'e%nt%ngan +ang tinggi dan sto' 'arbon(enenga& ebia'an

Ga(bar serapan ole& ! 2

O tana& e(isi di baa& +ang berbeda dan 4C

0 pengg%naan la&an di S%(atera $er&ati'an 'opi na%ngan (engg%na'an nitrogen

-1 po&on sebagai s%(ber arna, +ang (eng&asil'an e(isi (ening'at dan sedi'it !

2

dite'an O

&2

4C

serapan :S%(ber) er.&ot et al data tida' dip%bli'asi'an;

&3

&4


9/28

1

14

12 4

2

0

Forest *erakhir

"offee ,aungan dibersihkan

kopi tanah

123


10/28

Mitig BeradaptasiStrat Glob $er%ba&an

pe(b%atdan penge(bang pro+e' bisa (e(pro(osi'an pili&an ini sebagai bagian dari s'e(a (itigasi per%ba&an i'li( : Ga(bar;

"gro*orestr+ %ga (e(ili'i peran pen+erapan 'arbon penting %nt%' ber(ain di daera& tropis s%b-le(bab, dan dapat ber'ontrib%si %nt%' (eng%rangi 'erentanan petani %nt%' pertenga&an (%si( 'e(ara% I4- "? tela& (e(pelaari siste( beraditing'at'an se.ara intensi* sela(a 7 ta&%n tera'&ir $ening'atan bera (engi'%ti rotasi antara tana(an sereal dan po&on-leg%(

bera D%rasi po&on dala( si'l%s tergant%ng pada ting'at degradasi tana& dan si*at .%ra& &%an Bert%nas bera +ang lebi& bar%,tetapi (engi'%ti prinsip +ang sa(a otasi sing'at siste( 'e&%tanan agro ini (enari' %nt%' petani s'ala 'e.il 'arena (ere'a(ening'at'an tana& stat%s gii dan air &%b%ngan Mere'a %ga (e(ili'i potensi tinggi %nt%' (en+erap 4 bai' di bio(asa

per(%'aan dan di baa& tana& :3abel ; Se(entara siste( ini dipotong sering, sto' 'arbon atas tana& rata (elebi&i sa&a( dila&an 'ritis, la&an pertanian ata% t%lisan pas- $en+i(panan 4 di baa& tana& dala( siste( ini (er%pa'an potensi %nt%'

pen+i(panan ang'a panang 4, asal'an po&on tetap dala( rotasi, tetapi 'apasitas pen+i(panan sebagian besar tergant%ng padate'st%r tana& dan %(la& .%ra& &%an (isi o'sida nitrogen (engi'%ti bera po&on polongan dite(%'an &a(pir 10 'ali dari

ag%ng +ang tida' dib%a&i :4&i'oo et al 200; tetapi ting'at ini (asi& sangat renda& dibanding'an dengan %(la& 4 tersi(pan

$e(%li&an la&an 'ritis (engg%na'an diting'at'an bera (e(ili'i potensi tida' &an+a %nt%' (en+erap se%(la& besar 4 dariat(os*er, it% %ga (enaar'an 'ese(patan %nt%' (ening'at'an (ata pen.a&arian pedesaan dengan (e(%tar la&an tida'

prod%'ti* (enadi la&an prod%'ti* +ang dapat (eng&asil'an (a'anan, 'a+% dan prod%' po&on lainn+a, dan (eng&asil'an pendapatan

"daptasi

de'ade tera'&ir (ileni%( tera'&ir (en+a'si'an pola .%a.a dan s%&% global di l%ar ang'a%an di (ileni%( se.ara 'esel%r%&an,dan 'e(%ng'inan per%ba&an i'li( :dengan Pi'li(P tertinggal .%a.a +ang sebenarn+a, dengan de*inisi; +ang (e(baa s%&% rata-rata global 'e dala( d%nia bar% ini diteri(a se.ara l%as !a(%n, bagi ban+a' te(pat di b%(i, i'li( bar%, ata% lintasan i'li(se(entara i'a 'ita (enga'%i per%ba&an ter%s-(ener%s, tida' a'an global bar%, tapi s%da& ada di te(pat lain Ole& 'arena it%,dari perspe'ti* lo'al 'ita dapat (e(perti(bang'an (asala& Ppergeseran i'li(P, +ang (e(*o'%s'an per&atian pada aliran lateralorganis(e, siste( pertanian dan te'nologi +ang (%ng'in diperl%'an %nt%' (engatasi per%ba&an ini

Ga(bar $engorbanan antara sto' 'arbon dan 'e%nt%ngan sosial siste( pengg%naan la&an di a(er%n :diadaptasi dariGo'os'i et al 2001;

Profitabilitas #- ha

123250

hutan Komunitas 200

Tinggi Karbon Rendah Profit

Panjang makanan bera

Tinggi Karbon Tinggi Profit

150

Karbon Medium

Medium Carbon 100

Rendah laba

laba Tinggi

Rendah Karbon Rendah Profit

Ext kakao w / buah Ext kakao

pendek bera

Int kakao

Int kakao w / buah sawit


11/28

pendek beramakanan

kelapa sawitorest50

Karbon Rendah Tinggi Profit 0

0500 1000 1500 2000

&1'


12/28


tabel 4 sa&a( :Mg &aQ1; dala( siste( bera (ening'at :diadaptasi dari "lbre.&t dan andi, 200 dan as%(si bio(assa +ang4 7K;

spesies bera di atas per(%'aan tana& Cal%s a'ar %(la&di baa& tana&

bera12-b%lan-t%a 4rotolaria gra&a(iana 0 1,-5, 4rotolaria .alot&+rs%s 9,9 ,-1,2 4aan%s .aan 0 1,H-5,H Senna

spe.tabilis , 2,-5,5 Sesbania sesban 6,7 ,-10,1 3ep&rosia @ogelii 51 1,9-7,0 bera 1H-b%lan-t%a 4rotolaria gra&a(iana 11,65,1 ,0 19,7 4rotolaria pa%lina 9, 6, 1,7 17, 3ep&rosia .andida 1,6 15,6 bera 1,7 1,9 22-b%lan-t%a 4rotolaria .alot&+rs%s12,7 7, 1, 21, Sesbania sesban 17, 5,1 1,1 2,5 Gre@illia rob%sta 15, H, 1, 25,0 %.al+pt%s saligna 20, 9,0 1,1 0,5

I'li( +ang saat ini pada e'stri( distrib%si, seperti dataran renda& tropis di bagian baa& dari gradien ele@asi serta +anglatit%dinal, (%ng'in (engala(i i'li( bar% esa(aan i'li( pada d%a te(pat di b%(i :ata% (ene(pat'an " B se'arang dante(pat di (asa depan; (e(b%t%&'an ting'at tertent% l%(ping dari rin.ian &al%s ting'at :(isaln+a, distrib%si .%ra& &%antertent%; 3api, pesan %ta(a %nt%' PadaptasiP adala& ba&a aaban atas berbagai (asala& spesi*i' lo'asi +ang di&arap'an 'arena'etida'.o.o'an plas(a n%t*a& dan siste( (anae(en dengan i'li( di (asa depan, dapat diselesai'an dengan belaar dari

pengala(an di te(pat lain

Se(entara beradaptasi dengan per%ba&an panang rata-rata-istila& (%ng'in la+a' (elal%i te'nologi dan ali& plas(a n%t*a&,(ening'at @ariabilitas i'li( dengan bersa(aan pening'atan *re'%ensi +ang 'eadian e'stre( (eni(b%l'an tantangan +ang lebi&

besar, ter%ta(a di daera& tropis se(i 'ering :S"3; Dala( rang'a %nt%' (e(a&a(i bagai(ana adaptasi ter&adap @ariabilitas

i'li( (ening'at (%ng'in di.apai, it% ber(an*aat %nt%' (eli&at bagai(ana pop%lasi +ang (eng&adapi @ariabilitas i'li( saat inidan 'eadian-'eadian e'stri(

erentanan pertanian la&an 'ering di S"3 dibeda'an dengan tinggin+a insiden risi'o prod%'si .%ra& &%an ter'ait onse'%ensi ber'isar dari di*%si la(bat dari te'nologi +ang lebi& (eng%nt%ng'an tetapi berisi'o, %nt%' spasial ber@ariasi na(%nlebi& ter*rag(entasi ings land&old-, dan ba&'an dengan ting'at pert%(b%&an pend%d%' +ang lebi& tinggi %nt%' (eng'o(pensasi'etiadaan aring penga(an pendapatan di l%ar 'el%arga Ini dapat (e(balas 'orban di 'esea&teraan (an%sia, seperti +angdit%n%''an di India S"3 pada pertenga&an 19H0-an $asar 'e%angan pedesaan +ang ter*rag(entasi, +ang tida' (e(%ng'in'anr%(a& tangga %nt%' (en+i(pan dan (e(ina( %nt%' 'elan.aran @ariabilitas pendapatan, pasar "n.e ins%r- tida' leng'ap, dan

pasar &arga *%t%res ada ata% bel%( se(p%rna Se(entara sit%asi tela& diting'at'an (elal%i e@ol%si 'elo(po'-'elo(po' sada+adan s'e(a 'redit pe(erinta&, 'erentanan di 'alangan pend%d%' pertanian (arinal tetap

$enelitian e(piris di*asilitasi ole& data panel dari Desa St%di 3ing'at I4IS"3 ini :#S; (e(beri'an pe(a&a(an +ang lebi& bai' tentang 'apan dan di baa& apa risi'o 'ondisi dan 'erentanan r%(a& tangga (e(ain'an peran penting dala( 'esea&teraan

(an%sia pendingin >nt%'

123


13/28

Mitig Beradaptasi Strat Glob $er%ba&an

(a+oritas r%(a& tangga pe(b%dida+a di S"3, s%(ber %ta(a 'erentanan di'ondisi'an ole& risi'o pendapatan tana(an !a(%n,seperti 'eadian e'stre( (enadi lebi& sering, risi'o prod%'si a'an (ening'at 'arena @ariabilitas &asil +ang lebi& tinggi, +anga'an (enere(a&'an %nt%' 'etida'pastian pendapatan tana(an 4%ra& &%an 'etida'pastian +ang tinggi %ga (e(ani*estasi'andirin+a dala( pola per(intaan tenaga 'era (%si(an +ang dapat (eng%ba& n+ata dari 1 ta&%n 'e depan Dala( #S, risi'o

pendapatan tana(an bersi& adala& s%(ber +ang paling penting dari @ariabilitas pendapatan bagi sebagian besar r%(a& tangga

pertanian isi'o pendapatan tana(an bersi& tergant%ng pada @ariabilitas dari li(a s%(ber) &arga inp%t, ting'at inp%t, daera&ditana(, &arga o%tp%t, dan &asil Casil +ang lebi& bar% dari s%r@ei #S (en%n%''an ba&a r%(a& tangga pertanian se(a'in(endi@ersi*i'asi s%(ber pendapatan (ere'a %nt%' (e(as%''an terna', pendapatan non-pertanian dan pengiri(an %ang dari(igrasi 'el%ar

Bidinger et al :1991; (e(pelaari 'onse'%ensi dari pertenga&an 19H0-an 'e'eringan di India pada e'ono(i, 'ese&atan, dan'onse'%ensi gii 'e'eringan di Do'%r, seb%a& desa-a'il tati@e desa irigasi basa& di (ana tan' dan bai' irigasi adala& %(%("l- (es'ip%n 'e'eringan ini sangat 'eras, stabilitas &arga gaba& dan 'etersediaan l%as 'redit 'ons%(si diiin'an desa %nt%' (e(perta&an'an pola 'ons%(si (ere'a ta&%n nor(al !a(%n, 'arena '%rangn+a progra( pe'eraan %(%(, b%r%&, '&%s%sn+a

b%r%& pere(p%an, (engala(i pengangg%ran elang'aan air bersi&, dita(ba& dengan 'e'%rangan para& listri', (en+ebab'an pening'atan +ang .%'%p besar dala( geala air ter'ait (orbid di ta&%n 'e'eringan 'ed%a) diare, in*e'si (ata, dan '%dis "daptasi'e'eringan dii'%ti per'e(bangan seperti diga(bar'an ole& od&a

:1975;)R estr%'t%risasi 'egiatan pertanian saat ini %nt%' (e(a'si(al'an 'etersediaan e*e'ti* prod%' :ter(as%' berbagai

operasi pen+ela(atan;

R Mini(alisasi 'o(it(en saat ini, de-(ene'an'an 'ons%(si saat ini dan realo'asi s%(ber da+a +ang tersedia %nt%' (elind%ngi per%sa&aan berpotensi prod%'ti* seperti non-(e(era& s%s% &ean %nt%' (engiin'an s%s% +ang (e(adai %nt%' ana' sapi (%dadan (e(baa' bela'ang &a(pir sel%r%& 'e%nt%ngan dari prod%'si s%s% %nt%' (e(perta&an'an per%sa&aan &ean

R $e(b%angan persediaan r%(a& barang +ang diprod%'si serta dibeli barang ditebar %nt%' beberapa pengg%naan diren.ana'anseperti perni'a&an dll

R Sale ata% &ipote' aset

R O%t-(igrasi dengan &ean, dll

da(pa' 'e'eringan, 'eti'a petani tida' (a(p% %nt%' (elind%ngi basis prod%'si (ere'a sela(a ta&%n 'e'eringan, adala&&ilangn+a prod%'si sela(a ta&%n 'e'eringan dan &ilangn+a 'apasitas prod%'ti* %nt%' ta&%n-ta&%n beri'%tn+a Misaln+a,&ilangn+a ran.angan 'e'%asaan sela(a ta&%n 'e'eringan, &asil ber'%rangn+a prod%'si (asa depan 'arena 'etida'(a(p%an%nt%' (en%(b%&'an daera& +ang sa(a, tert%nda (enab%r, dan adopsi (etode +ang '%rang intensi* dari b%dida+a di ta&%n-ta&%n

beri'%tn+a dengan &%an +ang (e(adai Dala( 'as%s per%sa&aan terna', &ilangn+a sa&a( prod%'ti* dibang%n dala( ang'a panang :ditent%'an sebagian ole& *a'tor biologis dala( 'as%s sa&a( r%(a&-dibesar'an; adala& 'er%gian per(anen 'apasitas prod%'ti* dari per%sa&aan onsepsi non 'arena '%rang (a'an pada ta&%n 'e'eringan %ga tela& (a% (en.apai i(pli'asi %nt%' prod%'ti@itas 'aanan Dengan de(i'ian, da(pa' 'e'eringan :ata% peristia e'stri( lainn+a; (ela(pa%i e*e' langs%ng, dan'e(a(p%an da(pa' petani %nt%' (e(prod%'si dan berea'si ter&adap per%ba&an 'ondisi dan pel%ang bar% di (asa depan3antangan bagi para il(%an, pe(b%at 'ebia'an, dan pengelola la&an be'era pada penge(bangan strategi adaptasi prod%'ti* adala& %nt%' (e(per'%at pra'te' pertanian dan siste( pertanian saat ini %nt%' (e(b%at (ere'a lebi& rentan ter&adap@ariabilitas i'li(

123


14/28

Mitig Beradaptasi Strat Glob >nt%'

$er%ba&anagro-e'osiste( (anae(en petani dapat (e(ain'an peran besar dala( adaptasi, na(%n e'osiste( agro berbedadala( .ara (ere'a (e(perta&an'an 'elin.a&an petani %nt%' (erespon te'anan e'sternal, te'anan dan *l%'t%asi onsepPS%stainagilit+P :(e(%ng'in'an 'elin.a&an petani %nt%' ter%s; (%ng'in (enang'ap (eleng'api dina(is %nt%' P'eberlan%tanPassess(ent ata% tida'n+a siste( saat ini dapat berta&an &id%p eberlan%tan pada setiap ting'at 'o(ple'sitas, dari 'eberlan%tansiste( tana( dengan +ang (ata pen.a&arian, dapat didasar'an pada 'eberlan%tan 'o(ponenn+a, ata% pada 'elin.a&an dala(

(ene(%'an dan pas di 'o(ponen bar% Dengan de(i'ian 'ita dapat (engidenti*i'asi se%(la& aspe' S%stainagilit+ :Gbr 5;S%stainable li@eli&ood options o%tside o* agri.%lt%re ill not be .onsidered in detail &ere, b%t ill &a@e to *or( t&e es.ape ro%te*or t&e @ast (aorit+ o* toda+Ps r%ral pop%lation, as it &as alread+ done in t&e Pde@elopedP orld as t&e res%lt o* agri.%lt%raltrans*or(ation

3&e reso%r.e base *or s%stainagilit+ .an be @ieed in t&e lig&t o* t&e *i@e t+pes o* .apital re.ognied in re.ent nat%ral reso%r.e(anage(ent literat%re :4arne+ 199H;) nat%ral reso%r.e, &%(an, so.ial, p&+si.al and *inan.ial .apital, it& partial b%tin.o(plete options *or eA.&ange beteen .apital t+pes :?ig 6; "daptation o* agro-e.os+ste(sand t&%s s%stainagilit+.an be

based on essentiall+ to (e.&anis(s, one internal and one eAternal to t&e .%rrent s+ste( "gro-e.os+ste(s, espe.iall+ t&ose ri.&in agrodi@ersit+ and biologi.al reso%r.es :!at%ral reso%r.e .apital;, .an adapt :depending on t&eir C%(an and So.ial .apital; b+in.reasing t&e %se o* .%rrentl+ %nder-eAploited lo.al reso%r.es, or on t&e basis o* :lo.all+ or globall+; ne te.&nolog+ :ne.rops, ne .%lti@ars, ne (anage(ent pra.ti.es, ne eAternal inp%ts;, depending on t&eir ?inan.ial, C%(an and So.ial .apital"n indi.ation o* t&e t+pes o* .apital re%ired *or t&e @ario%s s%stainagilit+ aspe.ts is gi@en in ?ig 7

?ig 5 elations&ip beteen s%stainabilit+ and s%stainagilit+ at di**erent spatial s.ales

S%stainable li@eli&oods so(e&ere on t&e globe

S%stainagilit+ ) &%(an (igration S%stainable li@eli&oods at .%rrent lo.ation

S%stainagilit+ s&i*t se.tors

to non-ag

D)

S%stainable *ar(s at .%rrent lo.ation

S%stainagilit+ ot&er s+ste(

*ar(ing

4)

S%stainabilit+ o* .%rrent *ar(ing s+ste(


.ropping

B)

S%stainabilit+ o* .%rrent .ropping s+ste(

ot&er S%stainagilit+ ani(als

trees/.rops/ ")

S%stainabilit+ o* .%rrent trees/.rops/ani(als

123


15/28

Mitig "dapt Strat Glob 4&ange

123

?i@e t+pes o* .apital) ?ig 6 ?i@e t+pes o* .apital in@ol@ed inde@elop(ent pat&a+s :4arne+ 199H;

C%(an .apital !at%ral reso%r.e .apital

So.ial .apital

$&+si.al .apital :in.l in*rastr%.t%re;

S%stainable *ar(s at .%rrent lo.ation

S%stainabilit+ o* .%rrent *ar(ing s+ste(

S%stainabilit+ o* .%rrent trees/.rops/ani(als

?inan.ial .apital


*ar(ing

4)

#o.al Aternal ne (a.&iner+ in*rastr%.t%re, in*rastr%.t%re 'noledge,

'noledge,

(a.&iner+

=

H,S,PF,H,S


.ropping

B)

N,H,S

ot&er S%stainagilit+ ani(als

trees/.rops/ ")

#o.al geneti. reso%r.es, .%rrentl+ %nder-eAploited

N,H,S

?ig 7 eso%r.e base *or lo.al and eAternall+ a.%ired ne .o(ponents t&at .an be in.orporated into *ar(ing s+ste(s d%ring anadaptation pro.ess :!, C, S, $ and ? re*er to t&e *i@e t+pes o* .apital disting%is&ed in ?ig 6 ;

Aternal n%trient = ater reso%r.es, = eed .ontrol

pest

F,H,S

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#o.al (%ltip%r- pose soil = ater reso%r- .es, pest = eed .ontrol Aternall+ (aintained geneti. reso%r.es

F,H,S

5 S%stainagilit+ in relation to agro-e.os+ste( .o(pleAit+) Internal and eAternal

so%r.es o* adaptation and t&eir li(its


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3&e li'eli&ood o* eAternall+ dri@en adaptation is greater in t&e si(ple agro-e.os+ste(s o* t&e (ore de@eloped parts o* t&e orld,it& e**e.ti@e Pte.&nolog+ deli@er+ s+ste(sP esear.& and 'noledge deli@er+ s+ste(s are eApensi@e, so t&e+ depend on rigoro%s

priorit+ setting (e.&anis(s identi*+ing t&e *e .o(ponents it& t&e greatest potential (ar'et @al%e "gri.%lt%ral resear.& &as b+and large s%pported a dri@e toards t&e si(- pli*i.ation o* agro-e.os+ste(s, at least in part be.a%se it is less e**e.ti@e in dealingit& (ore .o(pleA s+ste(s e@en i* t&ese o%ld be s%perior :ander(eer et al 199H; "..ess to t&e *r%its o* t&is in.reasingl+.o((er.ialied resear.& depends on *inan.ial and so.ial .apital and is less li'el+ in t&e less endoed parts o* t&e orld ?ar(ers

ill &a@e to rel+ (ore on inno@ation *ro( it&in t&e s+ste( i* t&e+ are going to adapt to .&anging .li(atesS%stainagilit+ based on reso%r.es in t&e .%rrent lands.ape be.o(es (ore li'el+ it& an in.reasing .&oi.e o* ne .o(ponents

and reso%r.es in (ore .o(pleA agro-e.os+ste(s, alt&o%g& e are not +et able to %anti*+ &o (%.& .o(pleAit+ is re%ired *or &o (%.& resilien.e :ander(eer et al 199H; In general, s(all&older *ar(ers &a@e di@ersi*ied


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prod%.tion s+ste(s Ee propose a &+pot&esis t&at t&ere is a (iddle range o* agro-e.o- s+ste( .o(pleAit+ &ere @%lnerabilit+ is&ig&est ?ar(ers in t&ese sit%ations &a@e little resilien.e based on lo.al reso%r.es, and are not e**e.ti@el+ rea.&ed b+ te.&nologies:?ig H"; More si(ple and ell-adapted agro-e.os+ste(s are less @%lnerable to .li(ate .&ange as t&ese s+ste(s tend to be r%n

b+ spe.ialied *ar(ers it& a..ess to t&e reso%r.es t&at ill *a.ilitate adaptation More di@ersi*ied *ar(ing s+ste(s s%**er less*ro( s&o.'s and (aintain t&e agilit+ o* *ar(ers to adapt to .&anging .onditions In t&e absen.e o* data, t&ere is .onsiderable

%n.ertaint+ o@er t&e s&ape o* t&e o@erall response :?ig HB;

6 "gro*orestr+ as a (eans *or adaptation

"gro*orestr+ options (a+ pro@ide a (eans *or di@ersi*+ing prod%.tion s+ste(s and in.reasing t&e s%stainagilit+ o* s(all&older *ar(ing s+ste(s 3&e (ost orriso(e .o(- ponent o* .li(ate .&ange *ro( t&e point o* @ie o* s(all&older *ar(ers is in.reasedinterann%al @ariabilit+ in rain*all and te(perat%re 3ree-based s+ste(s &a@e so(e ob@io%s ad@antages *or (aintaining prod%.tiond%ring etter and drier +ears ?irst, t&eir deep root s+ste(s are able to eAplore a larger soil @ol%(e *or ater and n%trients, &i.&ill &elp d%ring dro%g&ts Se.ond, in.reased soil porosit+, red%.ed r%no** and in.reased soil .o@er lead to in.reased ater in*iltration and retention in t&e soil pro*ile &i.& .an red%.e (oist%re stress d%ring lo rain*all +ears 3&ird, tree-based s+ste(s&a@e &ig&er e@apo- transpiration rates t&an ro .rops or past%res and .an t&%s (aintain aerated soil .onditions b+ p%(pingeA.ess ater o%t o* t&e soil pro*ile (ore rapidl+ t&an ot&er prod%.tion s+ste(s ?inall+, tree-based prod%.tion s+ste(s o*ten

prod%.e .rops o* &ig&er @al%e t&an ro .rops 3&%s, di@ersi*+ing t&e prod%.tion s+ste( to in.l%de a signi*i.ant tree .o(ponent(a+ b%**er against in.o(e ris's asso.iated it& .li(ati. @ariabilit+

esear.& into t&e .ontrib%tions o* agro*orestr+ in b%**ering against .li(ate @ariabilit+ is not ell [email protected] Ee &a@e beg%nloo'ing at ongoing trials and reanal+ing res%lts to see &at e .an learn abo%t t&e per*or(an.e o* di**erent s+ste(s ineA.eptional +ears One s+ste( t&at e &a@e loo'ed at .losel+ is t&e i(pro@ed *allo s+ste( t&at is pra.ti.ed in (an+ areas o* ast and So%t&ern "*ri.a, des.ribed abo@e 3&ese s+ste(s greatl+ i(pro@e (aie +ields on degraded soils &ere nitrogen isli(iting prod%.tion " (odeling eAer.ise

Agrodiversity, agro-ecosystem complexity

123 !

?ig H Ill%stration o* t&e &+pot&esis t&at t&e probabilit+ t&at agro-e.os+ste(s ill be able to .ope it& t&e .&allenges o* global.&ange depends on t&e agrodi@ersit+ and .o(pleAit+ o* .%rrent agro-e.os+ste(s, based on resilien.e and te.&nolog+-basedadaptation :"; It is li'el+ t&at s+ste(s o* inter(ediate .o(pleAit+ ill be t&e (ost @%lnerable, b%t t&ere is large %n.ertaint+ on

t&e s&ape o* t&e .%r@e, as s&on b+ lines I, II and III :B; Possible overall impacts

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Agrodiversity, agro-ecosystem complexity

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s%ggested t&at t&is s+ste( (ig&t (aintain (aie +ields in dr+ +ears &en traditional pra.ti.es gi@e @er+ lo +ields :?ig 9; 3&isabilit+ to (aintain +ields (a+ be d%e to a n%(ber o* *a.tors t&at are i(pro@ed it& t&is s+ste( in.l%ding soil p&+si.al properties,ater &olding .apa.it+, biologi.al properties, and soil n%trient stat%s :"lbre.&t and andi 200;

"not&er i(portant agro*orestr+ s+ste( &i.& is ell-'non to b%**er against prod%.- tion ris' asso.iated it& .li(ate@ariabilit+ is t&e par'land or s.attered tree s+ste(s :Ong and #ea'e+ 1999; In t&e traditional *ar(ed par'lands o* Eest "*ri.a,dense s&ading b+ s&ea b%tter trees :itellaria paradoAa; and ne T re T :$ar'ia biglobosa; o*ten red%.es (illet +ield b+ 50UH0K:ater et al 1992; !e@ert&eless, t&e trees are &ig&l+ @al%ed b+ *ar(ers be.a%se e.ono(i. +ields *ro( (ar'etable tree prod%.ts.o(pensate *or t&e loss o* .rop +ield In se(iarid en+a, *ar(ers &a@e re.entl+ de@eloped an intensi@e par'land s+ste( %sing t&e*ast-groing indigeno%s spe.ies Melia @ol'ensii :Melia.eae;, &i.& is rep%ted to be &ig&l+ .o(patible it& .rops and .an

pro@ide &ig& @al%e ti(ber in 5U10 +ears :Steart and Blo(le+ 199;

3o deter(ine &et&er groing M @ol'ensii trees in .roplands is .ost e**e.ti@e or not, Ong et al :1999; .o(pared t&e @al%e o* ti(ber prod%.ts gained it& t&at o* t&e .rop @al%e lost d%e to .o(petition o@er an 11-+ear rotation at it%i distri.t, en+a 3&e

balan.e s&eet does not ta'e into a..o%nt .osts *or seed, .%lti@ation, tree planting sto.' or labor into a..o%nt, &i.& o%ldin.rease t&e s%rpl%s o* .as& *ro( t&e tree prod%.ts be.a%se in re.ent +ears, .rop *ail%re o..%rs 50K o* t&e ti(e 3&eir esti(atess&o t&at at t&e end o* t&e rotation, t&e a..%(%lated in.o(e *ro( tree prod%.ts eA.eeds t&e a..%(%lated @al%e o* .rop +ield lostt&ro%g& .o(petition b+ >SV10 or 2K d%ring a@erage +ears and >SV22 or 1H0K it& t&e ass%(ption o* 50K .rop *ail%re d%e todro%g&t :In t&is distri.t o* en+a, on a@erage siA o* t&e 16 .ropping seasons &a@e *ailed; ?a.tors &i.& en.o%rage *ar(ers to

plant M @ol'ensii in.l%de good *inan.ial ret%rns in a relati@el+ s&ort ti(e, strong de(and *or t&e prod%.t, &ig& @al%e ti(ber andt&e abilit+ to prod%.e a range o* prod%.ts .ontin- %o%sl+ e@en in dro%g&t +ears, &en .rops nor(all+ *ail

O%r &+pot&esis is t&at on poor soils, t&e long-ter( prospe.ts o* s+ste(s p%rel+ based on ann%al *ood .rops are blea' and atransition into tree-based *ar(ing o**ers better prospe.ts In pra.ti.e, t&e transition to tree-based s+ste(s o*ten depends %ponte(porar+ %rban e(plo+(ent or re(ittan.es *ro( o@erseas labor Go@ern(ent s%pport ill be re%ired to

?ig 9 Modeled (aie grain +ields in i(pro@ed *allo rotations in Ma'o'a, Malai as a *%n.tion o* groing season pre.ipitation:4&ira 200;

Pre.ipitation #mm'

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&elp s(all&older *ar(ers (a'e t&e transition to tree-based prod%.tion s+ste(, parti.%larl+ &en t&e sit.& entails a *e +ears o*red%.ed prod%.tion and red%.ed in.o(e se.%rit+

7 4on.l%sion

I(pa.ts o* .li(ate .&ange ill be *elt on se@eral le@els in t&e agri.%lt%ral se.tor) at t&e le@el o* t&e indi@id%al .rop spe.ies, t&e

*ar(ing s+ste( :&ole *ar(;, and at t&e le@el o* t&e nat%ral reso%r.e base %pon &i.& r%ral .o((%nities depend $reli(inar+@%lnerabilit+ esti(ates (a+ be too pessi(isti. *or (an+ agri.%lt%ral s+ste(s it& &ig& adapti@e .apa.it+, b%t t&ere .learl+ areli(its to adaptation it&in agri.%lt%re, and t&is (a+ p%t press%re on ot&er se.tors to absorb so(e o* t&e i(pa.t I(pa.ts ill be*elt (ost b+ r%ral poor in de@eloping .o%ntries, &o are t&e (ost @%lnerable be.a%se o* t&eir lo adapti@e .apa.it+ 3&e [email protected]+ o* *ar(ers in de@eloping .o%ntries is se@erel+ restri.ted b+ &ea@+ relian.e on nat%ral *a.tors and la.' o* .o(ple(entar+inp%ts and instit%tional s%pport s+ste(s

3&e .on.epts o* resilien.e and s%stainabilit+ are ell establis&ed in agri.%lt%re and .an be lin'ed dire.tl+ to t&e dis.%ssionsit&in t&e .li(ate .&ange arena abo%t adaptation and (itigation 3&%s, poli.+ (a'ers .an dra %pon a s%bstantial bod+ o* 'noledge on &o to en&an.e t&e adapti@e .apa.it+ and (itigation potential o* agri.%lt%ral s+ste(s "gro*orestr+ (anage(ents+ste(s o**er i(portant opport%nities *or .reating s+nergies beteen a.tions %nderta'en *or (itigation and a.ti@ities %nderta'en*or adaptation Eit&in international *ora, t&ere is (%.& tal' abo%t P(ainstrea(ingP adaptation into planning pro.esses 3&e.on.ept o* Ps%stainagilit+P pro@ides a .onstr%.ti@e *ra(eor' *or national planning to red%.e @%lnerabilit+ o* t&e agri.%lt%ralse.tor to .li(ate .&ange

Ee &a@e s&on abo@e, t&ro%g& t&e spe.i*i. .ase o* agro*orestr+, t&at so(e (itigation options also pro@ide opport%nities toin.rease t&e resilien.e o* agri.%lt%ral s+ste(s 3&ese .ases, &ere t&ere are s+nergies beteen (itigation and adaptation o%g&t to

be pri@ileged in t&e 4DM Coe@er, i* agro*orestr+ is to be %sed in .arbon se%estration s.&e(es s%.& as t&e 4DM, better in*or(ation is re%ired in se@eral areas ?or eAa(ple, e need better data on abo@egro%nd and belogro%nd 4 sto.'s, and t&enon-4O

2

e(issions o* di**erent agro*orestr+ s+ste(s E&ereasagro*orestr+ s+ste(s are pri(aril+ prod%.tion s+ste(s, t&ere ill be periodi. &ar@esting and (ar'eting o* ood prod%.ts 3&edebate on d%rable ood prod%.ts is ongoing, b%t pro@isions ill be needed to allo *ar(ers to (ar'et ood prod%.ts *ro( t&eir agro*orests and a..o%nting (et&ods ill be needed to a..o%nt *or t&e li*eti(e o* t&e 4 se%estered in agro*orestr+ prod%.ts "ss(all-s.ale *ar(ers are enrolled in .arbon o**set proe.ts, e ill need to de@elop a better %nderstanding o* t&e i(pli.ations *or 4

se%estration b+ agro*orestr+ and &at it (eans to li@eli&oods ?inall+, t&e 4DM &as @er+ stringent r%les *or parti.ipation t&at(a+ be be+ond t&e rea.& o* s(all-s.ale *ar(ers to %nderstand or to pro@ide [email protected] o* .o(plian.e 3&ere is a need to%nderstand t&e instit%tional re%ire(ents to allo s(all-s.ale *ar(ers to parti.ipate in t&e 4DM and to p%t appropriateinstit%tional *ra(eor's in pla.e

In t&e atte(pt to de@elop adaptation strategies *or t&e agri.%lt%ral se.tor, s.ientists and poli.+ (a'ers (%st .onsider t&e.o(pleA intera.tions o* .onstraints .reated b+ .&anging .li(ates in lig&t o* ot&er stress *a.tors Go@ern(ent and internationals%pport in ter(s o* resear.&, ed%.ation, and eAtension ill be re%ired to &elp *ar(ers in de@eloping .o%ntries .ope it& t&eadditional stresses .reated b+ .li(ate .&ange and in.reased .li(ate @ariabilit+ "gro*orestr+ .an @er+ li'el+ .ontrib%te toin.reasing t&e resilien.e o* tropi.al

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*ar(ing s+ste(s Coe@er, o%r %nderstanding o* t&e potential o* agro*orestr+ to .ontrib%te to adaptation to .li(ate .&ange isr%di(entar+ at best Better in*or(ation is re%ired on t&e role o* agro*orestr+ in b%**ering against *loods and dro%g&ts *ro( bot&t&e biop&+si.al :&+dra%li. li*t, soil *ertilit+; and *inan.ial :di@ersi*i.ation, in.o(e ris'; points o* @ie I* e a..ept t&at *ar(ersabilit+ to adapt is not based on t&eir abilit+ to 'eep on doing &at t&e+ are doing, &ere t&e+ are doing it, b%t rat&er on t&eir abilit+ to .ontin%all+ adapt to .&anging biop&+si.al and e.ono(i. .onditions, t&en e ill need to deter(ine t&e potential o*

tree-based prod%.tion s+ste(s in @%lnerable areas b+ %anti*+ing t&e relations&ip beteen biodi@ersit+ and s%stainagilit+

"gro*orestr+ o**ers t&e potential to de@elop s+nergies beteen e**orts to (itigate .li- (ate .&ange and e**orts to &elp@%lnerable pop%lations adapt to t&e negati@e .onse%en.es o* .li(ate .&ange 3&e resear.& agenda in t&is area is *airl+ ellde*ined Fet, (%.& is alread+ 'non and p%tting t&ese ideas into pra.ti.e on t&e gro%nd it& s(all-s.ale *ar(ers ill allo %s tolearn i(portant lessons t&ro%g& pra.ti.al eAperien.e

e*eren.es

"be+g%naardena $, +as F, nill $, ?o+ 3, Carrold M, Steele $, 3anner 3, Cirs.& D, Ooster(an M, ooi(ans , Debois M,#a(in M, #ipto C, Ma%sol* , er&e+en , "graala S, 4aspar+ G, $aris , as&+ap ", S&ar(a , Mat&%r ", S&ar(a M,Sperling ? :200; $o@ert+ and .li(ate .&angered%.ing t&e @%lnerabilit+ o* t&e poor t&ro%g& adaptation Eorld Ban' $ress"lbre.&t ", andi S3 :200; 4arbon se%estration in tropi.al agro*orestr+ s+ste(s "gri. .os+s n@i

99)15U27 "ggaral $, Mall :2002; 4li(ate .&ange and ri.e +ields in di@erse agro-en@iron(ents o* India II **e.t o*

%n.ertainties in s.enarios and .rop (odels on i(pa.t assess(ent 4li( 4&ange 52)1U "ggaral $, Sin&a S :199;**e.t o* probable in.rease in .arbon dioAide and te(perat%re on pro-

d%.ti@it+ o* &eat in India "gri. Meteorol H)H11UH1 ten Berge C?M, "ggaral $, rop** M :1997; "ppli.ations o*ri.e (odelling lse@ier $%blis&ers,

!et&erlands, p 161 Bidinger $D, Eal'er 3S, Sar'ar B, a( M%rt&+ ", Bab% $ :1991; 4onse%en.es o* (id-19H0s dro%g&t)#ongit%dinal [email protected] *ro( Ma&b%bnagar, .ono(i.s Gro%p $rogress eport, eso%r.e Manage(ent $rogra( $atan.&er%)I4IS"3 4arne+ D :199H; I(ple(enting t&e s%stainable r%ral li@eli&oods approa.&, s%stainable r%ral li@eli&oods

&at .ontrib%tion .an e (a'e Depart(ent *or International De@elop(ent, #ondon, >, pp U2 4&i'oo , Map*%(o $, !+a(%ga*ata $, Giller :200; Mineral ! d+na(i.s, lea.&ing and nitro%s oAide losses %nder (aie *olloing to-+eari(pro@ed *allos on a sand+ loa( soil in Wi(babe $lant Soil 259)15U0 4&ira $E :200; 3ree and .rop prod%.ti@it+ inGliri.idia/Maie/$igeonpea .ropping s+ste(s in so%t&ern

Malai, $&D dissertation, >ni@ersit+ o* !otting&a( 4lea@er M, S.&reiber G" :199; e@ersing t&e spiral) t&e pop%lation, agri.%lt%re and en@iron(ent neA%s

in s%b-Sa&aran "*ri.a Eorld Ban', Eas&, D4 4rill $M, eller M, Eeit ", Gra%el B, eld'a(p :2000; Intensi@e *ield(eas%re(ents o* nitro%s oAide

e(issions *ro( a tropi.al agri.%lt%ral soil Global Biogeo.&e( 4+.les 1)H5U95 D%n*ield $?, 3opp , "r.&a(ba%lt 4,noles :1995; **e.t o* nitrogen *ertiliers and (oist%re .ontent

on 4C

and !

2

O *l%Aes in a &%(isol) (eas%re(ents in t&e *ield and inta.t soil .ores Biogeo.&e(istr+ 29)199U222 ?"O :1999;3&e state o* *ood inse.%rit+ in t&e orld ?ood and "gri.%lt%re Organiation o* t&e >nited

!ations, o(e, Ital+, p 5 Go.'os'i , !'a(le% GB, Eendt :2001; I(pli.ations o* reso%r.e-%se intensi*i.ation *or t&een@iron(ent and s%stainable te.&nolog+ s+ste(s in t&e .entral a*ri.an rain*orest In) #ee D, Barrett 4B :eds; 3radeo**s ors+nergies "gri.%lt%ral intensi*i.ation, e.ono(i. de@elop(ent and t&e en@iron(ent, 4"B International, Ealling*ord, > CansenS, Mae.&l%( , Ba''en # :199; !

2

O and 4C


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*l%Aes in soils in*l%en.ed b+ *ertiliation and tra.tor tra**i. Soil Biol Bio.&e(25)62U160 C%ang , $ra+ 4, oelle S :2002; n&an.ing t&e .rops to *eed t&e poor !at%re 1H)67HU6H

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agro*orestr+ s+ste(s in en+a

4o((on ?orest e@ 7)12HU11 3s%r%ta C, Is&i%'a S, >eda S, M%rdi+arso D :2000; Seasonal and spatial @ariations o*4O

2

, 4C

, and !

2

O *l%Aes *ro( t&e s%r*a.e soils indi**erent *or(s o* land-%se/.o@er in a(bi, S%(atra In) M%rdi+arso D, 3s%r%ta C :eds; 3&e i(pa.ts o* land-%se/.o@er .&ange ongreen&o%se gas e(issions in tropi.al asia Global 4&ange I(pa.ts 4entre *or So%t&east "sia and !ational Instit%te o* "gro-n@iron(ental S.ien.es, pp 7U0

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ander(eer , @an !oordi' M, "nderson , Ong 4, $er*e.to I :199H; Global .&ange and (%lti-spe.ies

agroe.os+ste(s) .on.epts and iss%es "gri. .os+st n@iron 67)1U22 asil I :199H; Biote.&nolog+ and *ood se.%rit+ *ort&e 21st .ent%r+) a real-orld perspe.ti@e !at Bio-

te.&nol 16)99U00 Eass(ann , #antin S, !e%e C> :2000; Met&ane e(issions *ro( (aor ri.e e.os+ste(s in "sia !%tr

4+.l "groe.os+s 5H)1U9H Eeit "M, #inder , ?rol'ing S, 4rill $M, eller M :2001; !

2

O e(issions *ro( &%(id tropi.al agri.%lt%ral soils) e**e.ts o* soil (oist%re,teAt%re and nitrogen a@ailabilit+ Soil Biol Bio.&e( )1077U109

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