TRANSITION TOWARDS A 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSTEM BY 2050 FOR TURKEY Anil Kilickaplan, Onur Peker, Dmitrii Bogdanov, Arman Aghahosseini and Christian Breyer Lappeenranta University of Technology, Finland NEO-CARBON ENERGY 7 th RESEARCHERS’ SEMINAR Lappeenranta, January 24-25, 2017
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TRANSITION TOWARDS A 100% RENEWABLE
ENERGY SYSTEM BY 2050 FOR TURKEY
Anil Kilickaplan, Onur Peker, Dmitrii Bogdanov, Arman Aghahosseini and Christian Breyer Lappeenranta University of Technology, FinlandNEO-CARBON ENERGY 7th RESEARCHERS’ SEMINARLappeenranta, January 24-25, 2017
2 Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Anil Kilickaplan [email protected]
Highlights
A 100% renewable energy systems can providereliable, sustainable energy services before 2050
A 100% renewable energy system is lower in cost thanthe current system based on fossil fuels
A well-designed 100% renewable energy system withenergy storage solutions can provide power systemstability, baseload power, and peak following power in all 8760 hours of the year
3 Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Anil Kilickaplan [email protected]
Agenda
MotivationMethodology and DataResults for the Energy SystemResults for Hourly OperationAlternatives and OutlookSummary
4 Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Anil Kilickaplan [email protected]
Turkey’s RE potential
sources: DBFZ, 2009, Endbericht–Globale und regionale räumliche Verteilung von Biomassepotenzialen. Status Quo und Möglichkeiten der Präzisierung. LeipzigDemirba , A., 2002, Sustainable Developments of Hydropower Energy in Turkey. Energy Sources, 24, 27–40Akin, U., Ulugergerli, E. U., & Kutlu, S., 2014, Türkiye Jeotermal Potansiyelinin Isi Akisi Hesaplamasiyla De erlendirilmesi. Bulletin Of The Mineral Research and Exploration, 149(149).
5 Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Anil Kilickaplan [email protected]
Current status of the power plant mix
source: [TEIAS] - Turkish Electricity Transmission Company, 2016, Turkey Installed capacity of 2015, Ankara, Turkey www.teias.gov.tr/yukdagitim/2015YILSONUKURULUGÜÇ.xlsx
Key insights:• Current installations are dominated
by hydro, fossil gas and coal• Highly dependent on fossil fuels
decreases energy supply security• Enormous potential of RE• Still huge coal plant investment
plans and subsidies withoutstanding high stranded asset risk
• Turkey may turn into a water-stressed country by 2030
• There are pending nuclear plant agreements
• CO2 emissions should be decreased
Total Installed Capacity: 73.15 GW for 2015
Geothermal 0.62 GW 0.9%
Hydro/Run-of-River
6.79 GW 9.3%
Hydro Dam19.08 GW
26.1%
Biomass4.7 GW 6.4%
Wind4.5 GW
6.2%
Solar 0.31 GW 0.4%
Gas 21.22 GW 29%
Oil0.45 GW 0.6%
Coal 15.48 GW
21.2%
Geothermal
Hydro/Run-of-River
Hydro Dam
Biomass
Wind
Solar
Gas
Oil
Coal
6 Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Anil Kilickaplan [email protected]
Agenda
MotivationMethodology and DataResults for the Energy SystemResults for Hourly OperationAlternatives and OutlookSummary
7 Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Anil Kilickaplan [email protected]
Key Objectives
Definition of an optimally structured energy system based on 100% RE supply• optimal set of technologies, best adapted to the availability of the regions’ resources,• optimal mix of capacities for all technologies and seven sub-regions of Turkey,• optimal operation modes for every element of the energy system, • least cost energy supply for the given constraints.
LUT Energy model, key features• linear optimization model• hourly resolution• multi-node approach• flexibility and expandability • enables energy transition modeling
Input data• historical weather data for: solar irradiation, wind
speed and hydro precipitation• available sustainable resources for biomass and
geothermal energy• synthesized power load data• gas and water desalination demand• efficiency/ yield characteristics of RE plants• efficiency of energy conversion processes• capex, opex, lifetime for all energy resources• min and max capacity limits for all RE resources• nodes and interconnections configuration
8 Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Anil Kilickaplan [email protected]
Methodology OverviewEnergy transition pathway from 2015 fossil-based system to a 100% RE power system by 2050
Transition in 5 year time stepsNo new nuclear or fossil-based thermal power plants installed after 2015Least cost RE power plant mix replaces phased out fossil power plantsEnergy system modelled to meet increasing electricity demand for each time step
Research Objective: Find the least cost energy transition pathway for Turkey.
Electricity transmission• node-internal AC transmission• interconnected by HVDC lines
Storage options• Batteries • Pumped hydro storage• Adiabatic compressed air storage• Thermal energy storage, Power-to-Heat• Gas storage based on Power-to-Gas
• Water electrolysis• Methanation• CO2 from air• Gas storage
Energy Demand• Electricity• Water Desalination• Industrial Gas
10 Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Anil Kilickaplan [email protected]
Scenarios assumptionsKey data
• 95.8 million population in 2050• 0.77 m km2
• ~641 TWh electricity demand (2050)• ~65.85 b m3/a water desalination demand (2050)• ~64.8 TWh non-energetic industrial gas demand (2030)• Turkey assumed as an island in the study• sub-regions are divided same as Turkey’s seven
geographical regions; Marmara, Mediterranean, Aegean, Black Sea, Middle, East and South East Anatolia
• fossil fuel plants are phased out after their lifetimes
Studied Scenarios• Power sector• Integrated: power sector plus water desalination and
non-energetic industrial gas
Scenarios assumptionsFull load hours
Data: Based on NASA (Stackhouse P.W., Whitlock C.H., (eds.), 2009. SSE release 6.0)reprocessed by DLR (Stetter D., 2012. Dissertation, Stuttgart)
FLH of region computed as weighed average of regional sub-areas (about 50 km x 50 km each):
0%-20% best “sub-areas” of region – 0.320%-30% best “sub-areas” of region – 0.230%-50% best “sub-areas” of region – 0.1
12 Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Anil Kilickaplan [email protected]
Scenarios assumptionsSolar and Wind LCOE (weather year 2005, cost year 2050)
13 Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Anil Kilickaplan [email protected]
Scenarios assumptionsGeneration profile
Wind generation profile Aggregated area profile computed using earlier presented weighed average rule.
PV generation profileAggregated area profile computed using earlier presented weighed average rule.
Winds somewhat stronger when solar resource is weakerSolar resource very good across entire country in all but winter monthsSolar and wind energy complement each other
14 Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Anil Kilickaplan [email protected]
Scenarios assumptionsGrid configurations
Assumption
Scenarios
PowerSector
Integrated with Desalination and Industrial Gas demand
PV self-consumption X X
Water Desalination X
Non-energetic Industrial Gas X
15 Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Anil Kilickaplan [email protected]
Agenda
MotivationMethodology and DataResults for the Energy SystemResults for Hourly OperationAlternatives and OutlookSummary
16 Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Anil Kilickaplan [email protected]
Results
Integrated Scenario:LCOW: 0.46 €/m3
LCOG: 0.120 €/kWhth,gas
* additional demand to the system13.2% by gas and 15% bydesalination
** LCOS does not include the costfor the industrial gas (LCOG)
17 Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Anil Kilickaplan [email protected]
ResultsLCOE - capex, opex, grid, fuel, CO2
IntegratedPower Sector
• After 2020, capex has the major share with at least65% of total LCOE
• Fuel cost and CO2 nearly disappear after 2040
• After 2020, capex share is increasing continously• Fuel cost and CO2 nearly disappear after 2045• Capex is nearly constant after 2030
18 Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Anil Kilickaplan [email protected]
ResultsInstalled capacities and generation – Power Sector
100% renewable energy system is reachable for Turkey by 2050RE share can reach 90% at 2025 in Power scenarioFossil fuel share in the system is 9.4% in 2025 (65% in 2015) and coal is 7.2% (39% in 2015).
By 2050, PV is the major source of energy with 71% (50% in 2030) and wind second with 16%Synthetic natural gas is started to be utilised from 2030 onwards for the Power sector scenario and from 2035 onwards for the Integrated scenarioFor both scenarios, wind generation is almost the same to solar PV until 2030 but after then PV grows faster
19 Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Anil Kilickaplan [email protected]
ResultsInstalled capacities and generation – Integrated
100% renewable energy system is reachable by 2050 (incl. desalination and non-energetic industrial gas demand)RE share of 90% can be reached in 2035 - 2040 period for integrated scenarioFossil fuel share in the system is 11.8% in 2035 (73% in 2015) and coal is 3%.
By 2050, PV is the major source of energy with 72% and wind second with 17%
20 Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Anil Kilickaplan [email protected]
Power Sector IntegratedAverage LCOS 18.2 €/MWh Average LCOS 13.2 €/MWh
32 Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Anil Kilickaplan [email protected]
ResultsResource utilisation - Solar PV and Wind
IntegratedPower Sector
PV total capacity 287 GW PV total capacity 387 GW (+34 %)
Wind total capacity 63.3 GW Wind total capacity 92.2 GW (+46%)
33 Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Anil Kilickaplan [email protected]
ResultsSeawater Desalination – Amount of produced water and water cost
Key insights:• The regions with longer
distances to the sea have higher desalinated water costs.
• LCOW decreases while electricity costs decline.
• Desalination capacity meets 28.3% of Turkey’s water demand
34 Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Anil Kilickaplan [email protected]
ResultsGas sector
Key insights:Gas demand in decline, almost no demand for powerNet zero emissions imply switch to power-to-gasPower-to-gas cost higher than todayGas storage seasonal (max: autumn, min: winter)Power-to-gas units are mainly based on solar PV electricity and partly on wind, mainly in the summer
35 Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Anil Kilickaplan [email protected]
ResultsDesalination sector
Key insights:Desalination required for fulfilling increasing clean water demandSeawater reverse osmosis based on electricity and least cost deslination optionDesalination cost decline from today to 2050 steadilyRequired capex for the desalination sector rise continuously, but more due to the supply in remote areas at high altitudes than due to the desalination plants
36 Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Anil Kilickaplan [email protected]
ResultsGreenhouse gas emissions
Key insights:GHG emissions fall between 2020-2025 when the RE share is risingThe reason for the emission rise in 2030 is an increase of 1.5% in fossil gas consumptionWhile increasing the RE share in the energy system, Turkey’s energy system is getting increasingly sustainable and supporting COP21 responsibilities.
Power Sector Integrated
37 Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Anil Kilickaplan [email protected]
Agenda
MotivationMethodology and DataResults for the Energy SystemResults for Hourly OperationAlternatives and OutlookSummary
38 Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Anil Kilickaplan [email protected]
Hourly – Power Sector: Mediterranean
Key insights:• Main electricity sources are solar PV, hydropower and wind energy• Excess solar PV electricity is stored in batteries during daytime and discharged during nighttime• Hours of shortage are covered by import via grids and gas turbines
39 Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Anil Kilickaplan [email protected]
Hourly – Power Sector: Mediterranean
Key insights:• Main electricity sources are solar PV, hydropower and wind energy• Excess solar PV electricity is stored in batteries during daytime and discharged during nighttime• Hours of shortage are covered by import via grids and gas turbines• Desalination (baseload) demand is covered by PV plus battery
40 Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Anil Kilickaplan [email protected]
Hourly – Integrated Sector: Mediterranean
Key insights:• Dominating electricity source in the summer is solar PV (prosumer and utility-scale)• Excess solar PV electricity is stored in batteries during daytime and discharged during nighttime• Some further excess electricity seasonally stored by power-to-gas and exported• Peak production partly curtailed
Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Christian Breyer [email protected]
ResultsEnergy flow of the System of the Integrated scenario (2050)
Key insights:• Dominating electricity source isolar PV, complemented by wind energy and hydropower• Most electricity is used directly and partly redirected to nieghbouring regions by grids• Some electricity is stored, most in batteries• Gas is mainly used for non-energetic industrial demand, some gas for balancing the power sector• Energy system is highly efficient due to low losses (losses 10%, maybe useable heat loss 8%)
42 Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Anil Kilickaplan [email protected]
Agenda
MotivationMethodology and DataResults for the Energy SystemResults for Hourly OperationAlternatives and OutlookSummary
43 Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Anil Kilickaplan [email protected]
Cost comparison of ’cleantech’ solutions
source: Agora Energiewende, 2014. Comparing the Cost of Low-Carbon Technologies: What is the Cheapest option; Grubler A., 2010. The costs of the French nuclear scale-up: A case of negative learning by doing, Energy Policy, 38, 5174
Key insights:PV-Wind-Gas is the least cost optionnuclear and coal-CCS is too expensivenuclear and coal-CCS are high risk technologies100% RE systems are highly cost competitive
Preliminary NCE resultsclearly indicate 100% RE systems cost about50-70 €/MWh for 2030 cost assumptions on comparable basis
source: Breyer Ch., et al., 2016. On the Role of Solar Photovoltaics in Global Energy Transition Scenarios, 32nd EU PVSEC, Munich, June 20-24
Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Christian Breyer [email protected]
Results VisualisationGlobal Internet of Energy: http://neocarbonenergy.fi/internetofenergy/#
Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Christian Breyer [email protected]
North America 63 53 10.1% 1% 24% 4% 11.0% 19.8% 58.4% 3.7% 6.8%
South America 62 55 7.8% 5% 12% 5% 12.1% 28.0% 10.8% 28.0% 21.1%
Overview on World’s Regions
Key insights:• 100% RE is highly competitive• least cost for high match of seasonal supply and demand• PV share typically around 40% (range 15-51%)• hydro and biomass limited the more sectors are integrated• flexibility options limit storage to 10% and it will further
decrease with heat and mobility sector integration• most generation locally within sub-regions (grids 3-24%) sources: see www.researchgate.net/profile/Christian_Breyer
46 Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Anil Kilickaplan [email protected]
Agenda
MotivationMethodology and DataResults for the Energy SystemResults for Hourly OperationAlternatives and OutlookSummary
Energy Transition Modeling: Turkey
Key insights:• energy system transition model for Turkey• LCOE stays roughly stable and declines after 2040• beyond 2030 solar PV becomes more competitive than wind energy• solar PV + battery the most important system components• solar PV supply share in 2050 at about 60% as least cost• PV prosumers will play a very important role in Turkey
48 Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Anil Kilickaplan [email protected]
Review of annualized costs - Integrated
Key insights:Increasing opex due to phasing out of fossilfuels, also leading to related jobsContinuous capex for energy transitionneeded in the entire transition period
49 Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Anil Kilickaplan [email protected]
Breakdown of LCOE - Integrated
Key insights:LCOE comprisedmostly of capex of renewablesIncreasing relevanceof storage costs after2030Fuel and carbonemission costssignificantlydecreased up to 2030
50 Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Anil Kilickaplan [email protected]
SummaryTurkey can reach 100% RE by 2050 and zero CO2eq emissions from power plants
LCOE is about 51 €/MWh for Integrated and 57 €/MWh for Power scenarioAfter 2025 solar PV and wind energy form the majority in the energy mixMost favorable energy source for Turkey is solar PV which is balanced bybatteries and using complementary wind energyTransition for decreasing fossil fuel consumption in the system for 2015 – 2045Coal and fossil gas consumption is completely phased out by 2045Power-to-Gas plants are starting to become relevant in the scenarios by 2035 Increasing water demand makes it necessary to connect seawater desalination systems to the grid requiring an extra of 15% electricity demandBattery storage becomes crucial for system flexibilityThe presented scenarios show a possible pathway for Turkey’s sustainable 100% RE energy transition based on estimated future power demands
NEO-CARBON Energy project is one of the Tekes strategy research openingsand the project is carried out in cooperation with Technical Research Centre of Finland VTT Ltd, Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) and University
of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre.
Please check next slides for an overview of all data, assumptions and references.
Thank you for your attention!
52 Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Anil Kilickaplan [email protected]
ResultsResource utilisation – Hydro
IntegratedPower Sector
Hydro Dam capacity 21.2 GW Hydro Dam capacity 23.4 GW (+10%)
53 Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Anil Kilickaplan [email protected]
ResultsResource utilisation – geothermal and solid biomass
IntegratedPower Sector
Geothermal capacity 0.65 GW (±0%)
Solid biomass capacity 2.74 GW (-2.5%)
Geothermal capacity 0.65 GW
Solid biomass capacity 2.81 GW
54 Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Anil Kilickaplan [email protected]
DataPower Plant Capacities – Technical and Financial Assumptions
Capex variation based on learning curves Least cost power plant capacities based on
CostEfficiency of generation and storagePower to energy ratio of storage Available resource
WACC is set to 7% for all years.
Variation in capex from 2015 – 2050 for all power plant componentsutilised by model. Capex, fixed opex, efficiency and power to energy rationumbers are presented at next slides by subregion and years details.
55 Transition towards a 100% RE system by 2050 for Turkey Anil Kilickaplan [email protected]
Scenarios assumptionsFull load hours – Solar and Wind Regional
FLH PV 0-axis
FLH PV 1-axis
FLH CSP
FLH Wind onshore
FLH Wind offshore
FLH Wind Total
FLH PV 0-axis
FLH PV 1-axis
FLH CSP
FLH Wind onshore
FLH Wind offshore
FLH Wind Total
Region Year [h] [h] [h] [h] [h] [h] Region Year [h] [h] [h] [h] [h] [h]