SINTEF Energiforskning AS Transition to Sustainable Energy Transition to Sustainable Energy Services in Northern Europe Services in Northern Europe (TRANSES) (TRANSES) A joint research program NTNU / SINTEF / MIT / Chalmers 2004 - 2007 Dr. Bjorn H. Bakken Energy Systems SINTEF Energy Research Trondheim, Norway email: [email protected]
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SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Transition to Sustainable Energy Transition to Sustainable Energy Services in Northern Europe Services in Northern Europe (TRANSES) (TRANSES)
A joint research program NTNU / SINTEF / MIT / Chalmers 2004 - 2007
Dr. Bjorn H. Bakken Energy Systems SINTEF Energy Research Trondheim, Norway
ePlan demand forecasting tool Specification and setup Model developmentForecast scenarios
No conclusions yet...
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
TRANSES ObjectivesTRANSES Objectives
Outline and evaluate likely technology portfolios, deployment paths and policy options to meet future energy service needs in a cost-effective and sustainable manner in a liberalized energy market environment
Create an international arena for dissemination of results, dialogue and exchange of ideas in order to gain a swifter transition to sustainable energy services
PhD education and long-term scientific cooperation between the institutions involved
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
TRANSES SponsorsTRANSES Sponsors
Project idea created by Hydro, The Industry’s Innovation Fund at NTNU and Dept. of Energy and Process Engineering, NTNU
Scientific partners of TRANSESScientific partners of TRANSES
Dept. of Energy and Process Engineering, NTNU
Dept. of Electrical Power Engineering, NTNU
Dept. of Architectural Design, History and Technology, NTNU
SINTEF Energy Research
SINTEF Building and Infrastructure
The Laboratory For Energy and the Environment (LFEE) at MIT
Institute for Energy Technology (IFE)
NTNU LFEE
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Scandinavia Scandinavia –– an ideal region for analysisan ideal region for analysisLimited geographical scope
Norway, Sweden, Finland and DenmarkLimited connections to neighboring countriesTransparency (data availability)
All major energy resources/technologies presentHydro, nuclear, coal, oil, gas, biomass, wind, …Hydro dominated supply (stochastic resource availability)Electricity dependent demand
Open markets and competitionCommon liberalized power market (NordPool)Emerging European gas marketEmerging “green certificate” marketsNew renewables have to compete in current markets
Challenging region for experimenting with new planning models and methodologies!
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
ElectricityElectricity GenerationGeneration in Nordel 2006 (TWh)in Nordel 2006 (TWh)
DENMARK
SWEDEN
FINLAND
NORWAY
Conv. thermalNuclearHydroWind
6.1
37.2
11.3
22.0
45.1
0.7 1.1
119.9
1.0
13.2
61.2 65.0
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
NOU 1998:11NOU 1998:11 ElectricityElectricity demanddemand scenariosscenarios
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025År
TWh
Green BrainpowerHeavy C-1Heavy C-2Steady courseJourney upActual demand
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Main Main activitiesactivities
Scenariooutlines
(MIT)
Scenariooutlines
(MIT)
EMPSsimulations
(SINTEF)
EMPSsimulations
(SINTEF)
Trade-offanalysis(MIT/IFE)
Trade-offanalysis(MIT/IFE)
MARKALsimulations
(IFE)
MARKALsimulations
(IFE)
ePlanspec.
(SINTEF/NTNU)
ePlanspec.
(SINTEF/NTNU)
ePlandevelopment
(SINTEF/ NTNU)
ePlandevelopment
(SINTEF/ NTNU)
Demandforecasts(SINTEF/ NTNU)
Demandforecasts(SINTEF/ NTNU)
2004 2005 2006 2007
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
2004:2004: Outlining main scenariosOutlining main scenarios
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
EMPS:EMPS: EEFIsFIs MMultiulti--Area Area PPower Market ower Market SSimulatorimulator
3SINTEF Energy Research
Reservoir utilization in EMPS ModelReservoir utilization in EMPS Model
Eksp Finland 0.1 TWh/årEksport Danmark 0.3 TWh/årEksport Sverige 5.2 TWh/årImport Finland 0.2 TWh/årImport Danmark 4.3 TWh/årImport Sverige 14.8 TWh/år
Electricity import to Norway (TWh/year)Electricity import to Norway (TWh/year)
21SINTEF Energy Research
Example of spot price scenarios
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1 21 41 61 81 101
Week number
Mar
ket p
rice(
NO
K/M
Wh)
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
EMPS Generation Capacity, EMPS Generation Capacity, NordPoolNordPool areaarea Green Business scenarioGreen Business scenario
Energy supply: +92 TWhA little new hydro power (+7 TWh)Nuclear increased (+7 TWh)
Only Barsebackdecommissioned1 new nuclear in Finland
Much coal/oil is decommissioned (-38 TWh). Much new bio power (+25 TWh)Much more new wind power (+65 TWh)Much new gas power (+30 TWh)Net import (to Nordic countries) is reduced a little (-4 TWh)
GreBus
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Ann
ual G
ener
atio
n (T
Wh)
Hydro Nuc Fossil BioWind CHP+ Imp
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
EMPS Power pricesEMPS Power prices NorwayNorway
Power prices Norway
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Øre
/kW
h
BusUsa GreBus Seq RedC CeH2 Beyo
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Main Main activitiesactivities
Scenariooutlines
(MIT)
Scenariooutlines
(MIT)
EMPSsimulations
(SINTEF)
EMPSsimulations
(SINTEF)
MARKALsimulations
(IFE)
MARKALsimulations
(IFE)
2004 2005 2006 2007
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Res
ourc
es
Impo
rtM
inin
gE
xpor
t
Conversion
Process
End use devices
End
use
dem
and
Energy efficiency
Sto
cks
Elec/district heat
Energy carriers
ENERGY CONVERSION
2005:2005: MARKAL MARKAL simulationssimulations The The structurestructure ofof a MARKAL a MARKAL modelmodel
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
2005 MARKAL scenarios2005 MARKAL scenarios
1. Business as usual (BAU)BAU: with limitations in potential for energy efficiencyCO2: with limitation on CO2-emissions (Kyoto)
2. Low Carbon (LC)LC: quota price (20 EUR/t CO2 from 2010)LCEOR: quota price + enhanced oil recovery (EOR) at 40 EUR/t CO2
3. Green business (GB)GB: Common green certificate market in the Nordic region (20%)GBSN: Green certificate market in Sweden and Norway (20%) GBWIND: As GB, with offshore wind in deep sea
4. Reduced Consumption (RC)RC: Reduced consumption and increased potential for energy efficiency
• Economic Growth • Market Reform/Regulations • Fuel Costs and Availability • Technology Costs & Performance • Shifting Consumption Patterns • Modernization of Industry
Uncertainties
Strategy Future
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
From 8 to 1152 scenariosFrom 8 to 1152 scenarios
64 unique StrategiesWindpower (2x)Hydropower (2x)Nuclear power (2x)Coal and gas w CCS (2x)Import/export (1x)Biomass (2x)Waste (1x)Res and Com EUE (1x)Industrial EUE (1x)Res and Com Th. Fuels (1x)Road Transport (2x)