Transition to New Technologies (TNT) Program Nebojsa Nakicenovic Deputy Director General and Deputy CEO International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Professor Emeritus of Energy Economics Vienna University of Technology UK Panel Visit IIASA, Laxenburg – 11-12 December 2014
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Transition to New Technologies (TNT) Program · – Sustainable Energy For All (SE4ALL) TNT provides methodological frameworks, poli cy advice on technology strategies, roadmaps,
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Transition to New Technologies (TNT) Program
Nebojsa NakicenovicDeputy Director General and Deputy CEOInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisProfessor Emeritus of Energy EconomicsVienna University of Technology
UK Panel VisitIIASA, Laxenburg – 11-12 December 2014
Why study Technology?
2
• Main mediator between humans and the environment
• Main source of productivity and welfare growth (development)
(innovation and diffusion)– Large inertia for major transformations
(lock-in, path dependency)– Slow rates of change (systems/infrastructures)
Transitions to New Technologies
3
• Point of departureScenarios/impacts of diffusion of new technologies (clusters): ICT, transport, energy, and impact on environment (e.g. climate).
• Strategic GoalFurthering the understanding of patterns, dynamics, and constraints of technological change, and its drivers for global sustainability conditions.
• Research GoalFocusing on the systemic aspects, understanding the evolution of entire technology systems.
Networks for Policy Relevant Research• Major International Assessments:
– Global Energy Assessment (GEA) (coordination, CLAs for 4 chapters)– IPCC AR5 (4 chapters, synthesis report)
• Global Fora: – Sustainable Energy For All (SE4ALL)TNT provides methodological frameworks, policy advice on technology strategies, roadmaps, urbanization patterns, and national scale modeling to support the SE4ALL 2030 goals:
• Universal access to modern energy• Doubling energy efficiency improvement rates• Doubling the share of renewable energy
– International Council for Science (ICSU)
– Future Earth Initiative
– Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN)
– Global Carbon Project (GCP)
– German Government’s Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU)4
Data: UN, ITU, World Bank, 2010
Global Access to Technologies (Lorenz Curves)
5
Global – Historic Primary Energy Transitions (changeover time ∆t: 80-130 years)
all innovation phases, processes, and energy systems components:– R&D, niche markets, diffusion, obsolescence– learning, actors/institutions, resources, technology (hard+soft-ware)
…and yet…
Important biases at all stages:– R&D: supply side bias (nuclear, fossil)– Niche markets: supply side bias (solar/wind)– Diffusion: huge distortions via fossil fuel subsidies– Obsolescence: “grandfathering” of old/”dirty”
• New framework for analysis and GEA policy design criteria: Energy Technology Innovation Systems (ETIS)
• Modeling endogenous evolution of technology systems• ABM of technological complexity• Technology “meta-studies”
(metrics & determinants of change, past and future scenarios)7
Market FormationR,D&D
(public $)Diffusion Support
Social Rates of Return
Analysis & Modelling
Future Needs
supply : end-use(relative effort)
ACTO
RS &
INST
ITUT
IONS
TECHNOLOGY CHARACTERISTICS
KNOWLEDGE
RESOURCES
learninggenerationsh
ared
expe
ctatio
nsen
trepr
eneu
rs / r
isk
taking cost
resourceinputs
public policy & leverage
performance
key
Roadmaps & Portfolios
Technology Collaborations
Learning Effects
Directable(Activities)
Non-Directable(Outputs) 8
The GEA ETIS Framework
Source: Chapter 24: GEA, 2012
CLIMATE MITIGATION
Current Public ETIS Policy Leverage/Focus(policy-induced resource mobilization, billion US$2005)
Source: Wilson et al. Nature Climate Change, 2012 9
Criteria for Case Study Selection
Them
atic / Meta‐analytic
Supp
ly Techn
ologies
End‐Use Techn
ologies
Single Con
text
Comparativ
e Co
ntext
Curren
t
Historical
Develope
d Co
untry(s)
Developing
Cou
ntry(s)
Influ
entia
l Pub
lic Policy
System
ic 1 Energy Transitions X X X X X X X
2 Technology Diffusion X X X X X X X 3 Assessment Metrics X 4 Technology Portfolios X X X X
Know
ledge 5 Solar Water Heaters X X X X X
6 Heat Pumps X X X X X X 5 Knowledge Depreciation X X X 6 Nuclear Power (France) X X X X
Adop
tion
& Use
7 Solar Thermal Electricity (US) X X X X X 8 Vehicle Efficiency X X X X X X 9 Hybrid Cars X X X X X X 10 Solar Photovoltaics X X X X X X
Actors &
Institu
tions 11 Wind Power X X X X X X X 12 End‐Use Efficiency (Japan) X X X X X X 14 Rural Solar (Kenya) X X X X X 15 Synfuels (US) X X X X
Resources 13 Ethanol (Brazil) X X X X X X X
18 Global Financial Resources X X X X X X X X 19 R,D&D Investments (Emerging Economies) X X X X X X X 20 Global End‐Use Investments X X X X X X
ETIS Case Studies
10Source: Chapter 24: GEA, 2012
World Energy Technology Innovation Investments (Billion $)
• Energy & CO2 inventories Databasehttp://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/TNT/WEB/Publications/Energy_Carbon_DataBase
• Scaling Dynamics of Energy Technologies (SD-ET) on novel historical technology datahttp://www.iiasa.ac.at/~gruebler/data.htm http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/TNT/WEB/Publications/Scaling_Dynamics_of_Energy_Technologies
• Primary Final and Useful Energy Database (PFUDB) http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/TransitionstoNewTechnologies/PFUDB.en.html