Transition to a sustainable energy matrix in Latin America … · Transition to a sustainable energy matrix in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) Arnaldo Vieira de Carvalho Sustainable

Transition to a sustainable energy matrix in

Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)

Arnaldo Vieira de Carvalho

Sustainable Energy for All LAC Hub @

Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)

Energy Division; Washington, DC [email protected]; +1(202) 623-1719

Advisory Board

Ban Ki Moon & Jim Yong Kim

Co-Chairmen

Global Facilitator Team

Rachel Kyte

CEO

Regional Hubs

IDB, AfDB & ADB

RE & EE Hubs

High Impact Opportunities

UN SE4All Global

Initiative

SE4All 2030

Targets

Guarantee

Universal Access to Modern Energy

Double

Renewable Energy in Global Energy Mix

Double

Energy Efficiency Rate of Improvement Globally

Source: https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/post2015/summit

New Sustainable Development Goals – SDG

replacing MDG approved in 2000

A major SE4All result:

SDG7: an energy-dedicated goal

aligned with SE4All, also for 2030

Source: https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdgsproposal.html

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

LAC* World Brazil EU China Africa USA Japan

29

13

40

1311

49

64

40

22

51

27

17

53

18

142013

2030

Source: Scenario 450 ppm CO2eq;+2ºC global temp., WEO 2015, IEA (*LAC does not include Mexico)

% r

en

ew

ab

le e

ne

rgy

Participation of renewable energy in

total energy demand; 2013-2030 (ref. IEA 450 scenario)

+70% +40% 2X 3X 1.5X +8% 3.5X +30%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

LAC* World Brazil EU China Africa USA Japan

63

22

77

2721

1512 14

83

41

93

49

3944

32 33

2013

2030

% r

en

ew

ab

le e

nerg

y

Participation of renewable energy in

electricity generation; 2013-2030 (ref. IEA 450 scenario)

+90% +30% +80% +90% 3X 2.7X 2.4X

Source: Scenario 450 ppm CO2eq;+2ºC global temp., WEO 2015, IEA (*LAC does not include Mexico)

+20%

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

118

46

3122

9 121

-31

E

E

Source: Scenario CPS (ref. EEffic.) and 450 ppm CO2 eq;+2ºC global temp., WEO 2015, IEA (*LAC does not include

Mexico)

Mto

e/y

ear

in 2

030 x

20

13

How to meet the growth in total LAC* energy demand:

34% growth during 2013-2030 (ref. IEA 450 scenario)

+50% 3x +9% 4% -12% 5x

15% of expected total demand in 2013

(half of additional demand 2013 - 2030)

+40% Increase from 2013:

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Gt CO2 eq

20

25

30

35

40

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035

Gt CO2

4°C

Global C emissions due to energy

EEffic.

CCS

nuclear

biofuels

renewables

Source: IEA, WEO 2012

2°C 2DS 4DS

Relevance of Energy Efficiency (EEffic.)

for global Carbon emissions reduction

4 X 2015 RE global investment: US$286 billion 2 X

Investment in Sustainable Energy in LAC*

(Climatescope 2015)

Source: http://global-climatescope.org/en/download/ (* does not include large hydro)

Source: http://global-climatescope.org/en/download/

Source: http://global-climatescope.org/en/download/

Source: http://www.ren21.net/

2015: for the first time in history, investment in renewable energy in developing

countries (+19% ref 2014) outweighed that in developed economies (-8% ref 2014).

THANK YOU

OBRIGADO

www.iadb.org/se4allamericas