Transition to a Sustainable Bioeconomy

Transition to a Sustainable

BioeconomyData, Innovation, Technology and Governance, what we need

to do post COVID-19-

Maximo Torero

([email protected])

Growing Human Pressure

Climate change

Surprise

Ecosystem decline

Source: Johan Rockstrom: Let the environment guide our

development

World hunger is still increasing

Up by 10 million people in one year and nearly 60 million in five years

Looking beyond hunger

Over 2 billion people do not have regular access to safe, nutritious and sufficient food

The world is not on track to eradicate hunger

If recent trends continue, the number of hungry people would surpass 840 million by 2030

The world is not on track to defeat malnutrition

While there is some progress in child stunting and breastfeeding, child overweight is not

improving and adult obesity is rising

COVID-19 poses a serious threat to food security

The pandemic may add as many as 132 million people to the total number of hungry in 2020. It may also reduce nutrient intake and diet quality, thus increasing the risk of malnutrition

We are not on track towards ending hunger, food insecurity and malnutrition

The impact of COVID-19 on Extreme Poverty

88-115 million people pushed to

extreme poverty in 2020

The impact of COVID-19 on undernourishment

83-132 million people pushed to

undernourishment in 2020

More than 3 billion people in the world cannot afford a healthy diet

Average percentage of the population who could not afford a healthy diet in 2017

How this can be done?

6

Data

Complements

(Governance, human capital

and institutions)

Technology

Innovation

Key accelerators

Challenge 1: Improve

efficiency or shift of

potential frontier essential

in building back better

Stochastic Profit Frontier

C

Production of maize

Production of wheat

Frontier of possibilities of production

Frontier of possibilities of production increases

But interventions need to be tailored to countries’ contexts and objectives

Reducing food loss and waste benefits society, but trade-offs exist

Improved food security

and nutrition

Reduced natural resource

use and GHG emissions

Improved productivity and

economic growth

Adapting strategies to country context

Objectives are different from country to country. They should formulate strategies in

line with their objectives.

Aligning objectives and intervention entry points along the food supply chain

Environmental

sustainability

objectives

Food security

and nutrition

objectives

Increase water quality and

reduce water scarcity

Preserving land

GHG emission reduction

Plastics reduction

Food redistributionIncreased quality and nutritional

food content

Reduced prices for

consumers

Farmer income generation

Post-harvest loss reduction for increased food

availability

Farm Consumer

Upstream Downstrea

m

How this can be done?

Target interventions to solve bottle-necks

prioritizing hunger and poverty reduction

In dark green high priority areas

o Identify key constraints that need to be resolved to release potential of farmers (all agricultural sectors)

o Identify existing projects and gaps

In red critical, lacking agricultural potential areas

o Create mechanisms to increase resilience

How this can be done?

Bring together all geo-spatial information: Hand in

Hand Geospatial

https://data.apps.fao.org

Example: Identifying optimal locations for storage facilities in

South Saharan Africa

Nigeria: A closer look to a Hand-in-Hand country

Challenge 2: We need to

value externalities positive

or negative

Nature and climateImpacts on the planet and the

biosphere

Assessing systemic

riskImpacts on resilience

Food system as an

economic activityImpacts on jobs and finance

Impacts on

human lifeImpacts on inequalities

and health

Quantification Framework for Food Systems

Extended concept: One Health with zoonotic disease

Simple Illustration

Challenge 3: Is not only

supply!

ADDITIONAL DEMAND FOR BIOMASS

Growing population

Growing income

Need for alternative to fossil carbon chains

Increased production

Reduced supply for final consumers

Reduced supply for

intermediate consumers

New Demand for crops

Increase in yield and

area, extension of

cropland, and reduction

of other crops

GROWING DEMAND

Additional food demand

Additional Bioenergy demand

Additional industrial

Hunger?

Substitution effects

Feed

Other sectors (agrifood,

cosmetics)

Substitution effectsBiomass demand

SUPPLY AND DEMAN

Challenge 4: Bioeconomy

needs to be inclusive

SUPPLY AND DEMAN

• Huge opportunity for smallholders

• Huge potential for contract farming

• But we need an appropriate regulation framework

Final Remarks

Agriculture is critical for

Employment

Economic development

Food Security

Important changes in key drivers

Demand drivers changing rapidly

Land constraints

Water constrains

Climate change

Bioeconomy offers a huge

opportunity

But we need proper regulatory

environment

Gains in efficiency and potential

Increase value added

SAI

Bioeconomyneeds to be

inclusive

Thanks!