Transformation Index BTI Human Rights, Development and Economic Growth – Metrics, New Ways of Thinking and New Strategies Washington, D.C. - April 7-8,

Transformation Index BTI

Human Rights, Development and Economic Growth –

Metrics, New Ways of Thinking and New Strategies

Washington, D.C. - April 7-8, 2011

Sabine Donner


Field of Study: 128 Countries


Dimensions of Analysis

Status Index Management Index

State of democracy 2009

State of market economy 2009

Trend indicator

Political management performance (2007 to 2009) allowing for the

degree of difficulty

Criteria of Status and Management Evaluation

Criteria Economic Transformation

Socioeconomic Development

Organization of Market and Competition

Currency and Price Stability

Private Property

Welfare Regime

Economic Performance

Sustainability

Criteria Political Transformation

Stateness

Political Participation

Rule of Law

Stability of Democratic Institutions

Political and Social Integration

Criteria Management Performance

Steering Capability

Resource Efficiency

Consensus-Building

International Cooperation

Holistic ApproachDemocracy | Economy | Governance

Independent and expert-based study

Expert Assessments: Translating Context into Scores

expert poll, 6500 words-length country reports

coding manual with four response options per item

52 item ratings, evaluated by text (country report) and score (ranking) based on a standardized codebook

double review

two independent base ratings

intra- and interregional calibration of ratings


Democracy under the Rule of Law

Stateness Political Participation Rule of Law


- Monopoly on the use of force

- State identity- No interference of

religious dogmas - Basic administration

- General, free and fair elections

- Effective power to govern

- Association / assembly rights

- Freedom of expression

- Separation of powers - Independent judiciary- Prosecution of office

abuse - Civil rights

- Performance of and commitment to democratic institutions


- Party system - Interest groups- Consent to democratic

norms- Associational activities


Democracy under the Rule of Law

Stateness Political Participation Rule of Law


- Monopoly on the use of force

- State identity- No interference of

religious dogmas - Basic administration

- General, free and fair elections

- Effective power to govern

- Association / assembly rights

- Freedom of expression

- Separation of powers - Independent judiciary- Prosecution of office

abuse - Civil rights

- Performance of and commitment to democratic institutions


- Party system - Interest groups- Consent to democratic

norms- Associational activities

Status of Democracy

Overview of Political Systems

Democracies

Defective and highly defective democracies

Moderate autocracies, autocracies and failing states

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Stateness Political Participation

Rule of Law Stability of Democratic Institutions


Quality of Democracy - BTI 2010 Findings

Detailed Quality Assessment of Political Transformation

Stateness Monopoly on the use of forceState identity No religious dogmasBasic administration

Political Participation Free and fair electionsEffective power to govern Association / assembly rights Freedom of expression

Rule of Law Separations of powers Independent judiciary Prosecution of office abuse Civil rights ensured Stability of Demo. Institutions Democracy performs Democracy accepted

Political and Social Integration Party systemInterest groupsConsent to democratic norms Social capital

Defective democracies Democracies Autocracies

Erosion of the rule of law and lack of political and social integration constitute major weaknesses in defective democracies.

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Stateness Political Participation

Rule of Law Stability of Democratic Institutions


Quality of Democracy - BTI 2010 Findings

Stateness Monopoly on the use of forceState identity No religious dogmasBasic administration

Political Participation Free and fair electionsEffective power to govern Association / assembly rights Freedom of expression

Rule of Law Separations of powers Independent judiciary Prosecution of office abuse Civil rights ensured Stability of Demo. Institutions Democracy performs Democracy accepted

Political and Social Integration Party systemInterest groupsConsent to democratic norms Social capital

Defective democracies Democracies Autocracies

The largest decrease in average indicator scores in consolidated and defective democracies during the last four years is notable in the field of political participation, with regard to association and assembly rights as well as concerning the freedom of expression.

Detailed Quality Assessment of Political Transformation

Quality of Democracy – BTI 2010 Findings

Growing Restrictions on Freedom of Expression…

Freedom of expression

East-Central and Southeast Europe:BOSNIA HERZEGOVINA | CROATIA | LITHUANIAMACEDONIA | SERBIA | SLOVAKIA

Latin America and the Caribbean:ECUADOR | EL SALVADOR | NICARAGUAVENEZUELA

Subsahara Africa:BENIN | BOTSWANA | BURUNDI | CENTRAL AFRICAN REP | CONGO DR | CONGO REPGHANA | KENYA | MADAGASCAR | MALIMAURITANIA | MOZAMBIQUE | NAMIBIA | NIGER NIGERA | SOMALIA | SOUTH AFRICA | TANZANIAUGANDA

Asia and Oceania:SRI LANKA | MALAYSIA | PHILIPPINESSOUTH KOREA

Former Soviet Union and Mongolia:AZERBAIJAN | GEORGIA | KYRGYZSTANMOLDOVA | TAJIKISTAN

Middle East and North AfricaBAHRAIN | EGYPT | JORDAN | LEBANON

Quality of Democracy – BTI 2010 Findings

…and on Assembly / Association Rights

Freedom of expression Association/assembly rights


Market Economy Flanked by Sociopolitical Safeguards

Level of SocioeconomicDevelopment

Organization of the Market and Competition


Private Property

Welfare Regime Economic Performance Sustainability

- Prevention of fundamental social exclusion due to poverty, gender, ethnicity or religion

- Market-based competition

- Anti-monopoly policy- Liberalization of foreign

Trade - Banking system

- Anti-inflation / forex policy

- Macrostability (fiscal and debt policy)

- Property rights - Private enterprise

- Social safety nets - Equal opportunity

- Output strength of the economy (GDP, employment, price stability, budget deficit, balance of trade)

- Environmental Policy - Education Policy,

Investment in Research and Development


Market Economy Flanked by Sociopolitical Safeguards

Level of SocioeconomicDevelopment

Organization of the Market and Competition


Private Property

Welfare Regime Economic Performance Sustainability

- Prevention of fundamental social exclusion due to poverty, gender, ethnicity or religion

- Market-based competition

- Anti-monopoly policy- Liberalization of foreign

Trade - Banking system

- Anti-inflation / forex policy

- Macrostability (fiscal and debt policy)

- Property rights - Private enterprise

- Social safety nets - Equal opportunity

- Output strength of the economy (GDP, employment, price stability, budget deficit, balance of trade)

- Environmental Policy - Education Policy,

Investment in Research and Development

Economic Performance and Social Inclusion

Distribution of Countries and Scores for each Economic Transformation Criterion

Organization of the Market



Private Property

Welfare Regime


Sustainability


8

12

18

16

7

15

4

10 – 9 (very good)




Private Property

Welfare Regime


Sustainability



8

12

18

16

7

15

4

33

58

83

63

39

86

29

10 – 9 (very good) 8 – 6 (good)




Private Property

Welfare Regime


Sustainability



8

12

18

16

7

15

4

33

58

83

63

39

86

29

56

47

23

42

69

24

82

10 – 9 (very good) 8 – 6 (good)

5 – 3 (weak)




Private Property

Welfare Regime


Sustainability



8

12

18

16

7

15

4

33

58

83

63

39

86

29

56

47

23

42

69

24

82

31

11

4

7

13

3

13

10 – 9 (very good) 8 – 6 (good)

5 – 3 (weak)

2 – 1 (very weak)




Private Property

Welfare Regime


Sustainability



Favorable Conditions at the Outset of the Global Financial and Economic Crisis

Economic Performance high low

31 %

56 %

13 %

moderate


Best Economic Performers

31 %


Level of Socioeconomic Development, Equality of Opportunity and Social Safety Nets

27 %

35 %

38 %

Level of Social Inclusion high moderate low


Political Management Performance, allowing for the Degree of Difficulty

Steering Capability Resource Efficiency Consensus-Building International Cooperation

- Strategic priority setting - Implementation- Policy learning

- Efficient use of economic and human resources

- Policy coordination - Anti-corruption policy

- Consensus on goals- Exclusion / integration

of veto actors- Conflict management - Civil society

participation - Reconciliation

- Effective use of support- Credibility - Regional cooperation

- Structural Constraints i.e. extreme poverty, low educational level, infrastructural deficiencies, natural disasters etc.

- Civil Society Traditions- Level of Ethnic,

Religious or Social Conflicts

- Per Capita GNI PPP

- UN Education Index- Stateness and Rule

of Law (Average of BTI Criteria Scores)

Level of Difficulty

BTI 2010 Management Index

Political Management in International Comparison

successful with weaknessesmoderateweak

failed or non-existent

successful

Political leadership toward democracy and a market economy

Transparency and Accessibility

Ranking Table (Online, BTI-Book)

Overview on results including the 17 criteria scores per country

In addition: All 52 indicator scores per country accessible via CD-Rom (in BTI-Book) and on

www.bertelsmann-transformation-index.de

Country Reports (Online, BTI-Book)

Detailed analysis and information on all 17 criteria, in addition: Executive Summary, History and Characteristics, Strategic Outlook

Also: 7 regional reports (BTI-Book)

Transformation Atlas (Online)

Interactive application to visualize 6,656 individual scores by world maps (global views), radars (country views), data comparison (cross-checks)

and explanatory texts

Transformation Index 2010 Political Management in International Comparison

BTI 2010

www.bertelsmann-transformation-index.de

1

Review-Process

Standardized codebook (52 Indicators)

Assessment Procedure

2

3

4

Detailed written country assessment with scores

Commentary and scores by local reviewer

Regional and interregional check by coordinators

Final decision by BTI-Board

Detailed written country assessment with scores1

Review-Process




128 Country Experts


2Regional and interregional check by coordinators

3

Final decision by BTI-Board4

1

1

Review-Process




128 Country Experts

2

3

4

1


128 Reviewers from the respective countries2





1

Review-Process




128 Country Experts

2

3

4

1




Regional Coordinators3





1

Review-Process




128 Country Experts

2

3

4

1




Regional Coordinators3


BTI-Board4





Transformation Index BTI Human Rights, Development and Economic Growth – Metrics, New Ways of Thinking and New Strategies Washington, D.C. - April 7-8,

Documents

state of market economy

sabine donner slide

degree of difficulty

criteria of status

use of force state identity

item ratings

expression separation

groups consent