Training Workshop on Green Jobs for South African Trade Unions 20 November 2012 Parktonian Hotel, Johannesburg
Dec 24, 2015
Training Workshop on Green Jobs for South African Trade Unions20 November 2012
Parktonian Hotel, Johannesburg
• Introduction
• Purpose of the report
• Methodology
• Green jobs estimates
• Key success factors
• Key messages
Outline of presentation
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• The greening of an economy can present substantial opportunities for the creation of sustainable employment through the introduction of new activities in the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors.
• A green economic revolution worldwide, re-orienting national development trajectories.
• South Africa’s economy is one of the most carbon intensive globally.
• Environmental sustainability and economic progress are not opposing forces.
Introduction
Rank Country Total emissions (million t)
Emissions (t/capita)
Emissions (kg/USD GDP)
1 China 6 877.2 5.14 0.552 United States 5 195.0 16.90 0.463 European Union – 27 3 576.8 7.15 0.304 India 1 585.8 1.37 0.355 Russia 1 532.6 10.80 1.00… 14 South Africa 369.4 7.49 0.7015 Brazil 337.8 1.74 0.20
3Source: Authors, compiled from IEA data
Introduction
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Transition
Limited window of opportunity – concerted effort needed!
• Considering the fast growing interest in the green economy and divergent views on employment potential, attempt to bring forth a degree of consolidation and comparability.
• Estimate the national direct employment potential per green area/technology covered (26 in total).
• Contribute to debate, not only on renewable energy generation, but also wider green economy issues.
• Provide useful input for prioritisation processes at the national, industry and institutional levels.
• Assist a broad spectrum of stakeholders in the associated strategic planning process.
• Methodology permits flexibility and review as information evolves.
Purpose of the report
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Methodology:Process
• Initial scoping to identify technology universe.
• Selection in terms of applicability to SA context and availability of information (narrowed down to 26 segments/technologies).
• Consultation of wide range of publications and industry specific information, locally and globally.
• Interaction with local and foreign experts and industry players.
• Existing studies and models (mainly pertaining to North America and Europe) largely based on highly disaggregated sectoral data – not the case in SA.
• Research team had to develop a suitable employment estimation methodology.
• Standard layout was adopted to facilitate consultation and comparability.
• Draft report went through a substantial review by local and foreign experts, before the report was finalised.
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Methodology:Coverage
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Energy generation
Wind power
Solar power Marine power
Bio-fuelsPV CSP
Waste-to-energyLandfill
gasBiomass
combustionAnaerobic digestion
Pyrolysis/gasification Cogeneration
Hydro-power
Small
Large
Energy and resource efficiency
TransportBRT
Green buildings
Insulation, lighting and windows
Solar water heaters
Rainwater harvesting
Industrial efficiencies
Mechanical insulation
Industrial motors
Emissions and pollution mitigation
Carbon capture and
storage
RecyclingPollution controlAir pollution control
equipmentElectrical vehicles
Clean stoves Water treatment
Natural resource management
Biodiversity conservation and ecosystem restoration
Soil and land management
Methodology:Process
• Initial scoping to identify technology universe.
• Selection in terms of applicability to SA context and availability of information (narrowed down to 26 segments/technologies).
• Consultation of wide range of publications and industry specific information, locally and globally.
• Interaction with local and foreign experts and industry players.
• Existing studies and models (mainly pertaining to North America and Europe) largely based on highly disaggregated sectoral data – not the case in SA.
• Research team had to develop a suitable employment estimation methodology.
• Standard layout was adopted to facilitate consultation and comparability.
• Draft report went through a substantial review by local and foreign experts, before the report was finalised.
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Methodology:Estimation
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Short term(2011-12)
Medium term (2013-17)
Long term (2018-25)
Building, construction and installationOperations and maintenance
ManufacturingEmployment estimates
Results: • Direct jobs in formal economy (i.e. multiplier effects not taken into account).• Net figures (i.e. job losses due to greening of economy were subtracted).• Full-time equivalent.• Averaged per time period to smooth significant annual fluctuations.
Assumptions:• Build programmes defined for each area/technology (local + exports).• Appropriate policies and regulations in place.• Where appropriate, resource inputs allocated to a specific technology to avoid
double counting.• Various types of employment ratios utilised: output-, input- or financial related.
Green jobs estimates: Assumed resource allocation
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Waste source
Municipal solid waste
Wood
Sewerage
Green municipal solid waste
Industrial waste – food processors
Industrial waste – other
Pyrolysis
Biomass combustion
Recycling
Landfill
Anaerobic digestion
Co-generation
Waste treatment technology
Flow assumed in the report
Potential green flow
Potential non-green flow
Non-polluting waste (no energy potential)
Green jobs estimates: Hypothetical build programme and assumptions
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CSP plants completed: SA
CSP plants completed: RoA
Construction: SA
Construction: RoA
O&M: SA O&M: RoA Manufacturing: SA
Manufacturing: RoA
Number of MW per year 18.75 18.75 18.75 18.75Number of workers per MW 21.6 2.16 0.54 0.05 14.4 14.4Construction period years 2 2 2 2 Year No. of MW No. of MW No. of jobs No. of jobs No. of jobs No. of jobs No. of jobs No. of jobs2011 0 0 0 0 0 0 02012 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Average short term 0 0 0 0 0 0
2013 0 58 0 0 0 38 02014 100 132 0 54 0 88 02015 130 173 1 124 0 115 102016 170 25 225 4 216 1 150 292017 220 50 294 6 335 3 196 38Average medium term 176 2 146 1 117 15
2018 290 50 386 7 492 3 257 482019 380 75 501 10 697 4 334 672020 490 100 651 13 962 5 434 862021 640 125 829 16 1308 7 553 1062022 800 150 922 17 1740 8 614 1152023 800 150 922 18 2172 8 614 1192024 800 160 922 21 2604 9 614 1382025 800 200 922 23 3036 11 614 1542026 800 200
Average long term 757 16 1626 7 504 104
Methodology:Process
• Initial scoping to identify technology universe.
• Selection in terms of applicability to SA context and availability of information (narrowed down to 26 segments/technologies).
• Consultation of wide range of publications and industry specific information, locally and globally.
• Interaction with local and foreign experts and industry players.
• Existing studies and models (mainly pertaining to North America and Europe) largely based on highly disaggregated sectoral data – not the case in SA.
• Research team had to develop a suitable employment estimation methodology.
• Standard layout was adopted to facilitate consultation and comparability.
• Draft report went through a substantial review by local and foreign experts, before the report was finalised.
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Methodology:Standardised section layout
• Historical progress and maturity of the technology/area.
• Advantages and disadvantage associated with the technology/area.
• Overview of global usage, including
• Some of the major international and local players.
• The applicability of the technology to South Africa and the rest of the African continent.
• Analysis of the potential job creation.
• Adaption of the generic methodology
• Results
• Ease of introduction of the technology
• Implementation challenges
• Policy implications
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Green jobs estimates:Overall direct potential
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Short term
Medium term
Long term
Total 98 000 255 000 462 000Energy generation 13 565 57 142 130 023
% of total 13.8% 22.4% 28.1%Energy and
resource efficiency 31 569 70 193 67 979
% of total 32.2% 27.5% 14.7%Emissions and
pollution control 8 434 13 189 31 641
% of total 8.6% 5.2% 6.8%Natural resource
management 44 512 114 842 232 926
% of total 45.4% 45.0% 50.4%
Green jobs estimates: Building, construction and installation
• Employment momentum re. building, construction and installation activities peaks in the medium term, largely propelled by mass transportation infrastructure, stabilising thereafter as green building methods become progressively entrenched.
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Green jobs estimates:Operations and maintenance
• The largest employment gains are likely to be associated with O&M activities, particularly those involved in the various natural resource management initiatives.
• O&M jobs linked to renewable energy generation plants also substantial.
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Green jobs estimates:Manufacturing
• Potential for localisation of manufacturing and associated employment expands as projects related to a greening economy are progressively commissioned.
• Competitiveness gains derived over time due to economies of scale as markets develop.
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Green jobs estimates: Energy generation
Broad ‘green economy’ category Segment Technology/product
Total net direct employment
potential in the long-term
Net direct manufacturing
employment potential in the long-term
Total net direct employment
potential (ST, MT, LT)
Net direct manufacturing
employment potential (ST, MT, LT)
ENERGY GENERATION
Renewable (non-fuel) electricity
Wind powerOnshore wind power
5 156 2 105 VL, L, M L, M, HOffshore wind power
Solar powerConcentrated solar power 3 014 608 N, VL, M N, VL, M
Photovoltaic power 13 541 8 463 M, H, H H, VH, VH
Marine power Marine power 197 0 N, N, VL N, N, N
Hydro powerMicro-/small-hydro power 272 111 VL, VL, VL VL, M, VL
Large hydro power 100 0 VL, VL, VL N, N, N
Fuel-based renewable electricity
Waste-to-energy
Landfills 1 178 180 VL, VL, L VL, VL, L
Biomass combustion 37 270 154 VL, H, VH VL, VL, L
Anaerobic digestion 1 429 591 VL, VL, L VL, L, M
Pyrolysis/Gasification 4 348 2 663 VL, L, M VL, H, H
Co-generation 10 789 1 050 L, M, H M, H, H
Liquid fuels Bio-fuelsBio-ethanol
52 729 6 641 M, H, VH L, H, VHBio-diesel
Total energy generation employment 130 023 22 566
VH = very high (total employment potential > 20 000 direct jobs; manufacturing potential > 3 000 direct jobs)H = high (total employment potential > 8 000, but 20 000; manufacturing potential > 1 000 but 3 000)M = medium (total employment potential > 3 000, but 8 000; manufacturing potential > 500 but 1 000)L = low (total employment potential > 1 000, but 3 000; manufacturing potential > 150, but 500) VL = very low (total employment potential > 0, but 1 000; manufacturing potential > 0, but 150) N = negligible/none (total employment potential = 0; manufacturing potential = 0)
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Green jobs estimates: Evolution of renewable energy generation
• Renewable energy expansion path (bearing in mind that cost issues are not addressed) exceeds that of IRP 2010-2030 by a significant margin (i.e. 8 720MW), largely due to higher deemed CSP potential and inclusion of waste-to-energy (particularly cogeneration).
• Renewable energy mix also considerably different and more labour intensive.
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Green jobs estimates:Evolution of renewable energy mix
• Wind and cogeneration are dominant in the short term, although solar power (initially PV, but later also CSP) brings some balance in the long term.
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Green jobs estimates: Energy & resource efficiency / Emissions & pollution mitigation
Broad ‘green economy’ category Segment Technology/product
Total net direct employment
potential in the long-term
Net direct manufacturing
employment potential in the long-term
Total net direct employment
potential (ST, MT, LT)
Net direct manufacturing
employment potential (ST, MT, LT)
ENERGY & RESOURCE EFFICIENCY
Green buildings
Insulation, lighting, windows 7 340 838 L, M, M L, M, M
Solar water heaters 17 621 1 225 L, H, H L, M, H
Rain water harvesting 1 275 181 VL, VL, L VL, VL, L
Transportation Bus Rapid Transport 41 642 350 VH, VH, VH H, M, L
IndustrialEnergy efficient motors -566 4 VL, VL, VL VL, VL, VL
Mechanical insulation 666 89 VL, VL, VL VL, VL, VL
Total energy efficiency employment 67 977 2 686
VH = very high (total employment potential > 20 000 direct jobs; manufacturing potential > 3 000 direct jobs)H = high (total employment potential > 8 000, but 20 000; manufacturing potential > 1 000 but 3 000)M = medium (total employment potential > 3 000, but 8 000; manufacturing potential > 500 but 1 000)L = low (total employment potential > 1 000, but 3 000; manufacturing potential > 150, but 500) VL = very low (total employment potential > 0, but 1 000; manufacturing potential > 0, but 150) N = negligible/none (total employment potential = 0; manufacturing potential = 0)
EMISSIONS & POLLUTION MITIGATION
Pollution control
Air pollution control 900 166 N, VL, VL N, L, L
Electrical vehicles 11 428 10 642 VL, L, H N, H, VH
Clean stoves 2 783 973 VL, VL, L VL, L, M
Acid mine water treatment 361 0 VL, VL, VL N, N, N
Carbon Capture and Storage 251 0 N, VL, VL N, N, N
Recycling 15 918 9 016 M, H, H H, VH, VH
Total emissions and pollution mitigation employment 31 641 20 797
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Green jobs estimates: Natural resource management
Broad ‘green economy’ category Segment Technology/productTotal net direct
employment potential in the
long-term
Net direct manufacturing
employment potential in the long-term
Total net direct employment
potential (ST, MT, LT)
Net direct manufacturing
employment potential (ST, MT, LT)
NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT Conservation & eco-system
restoration 121 553 0 H, VH, VH N, N, N
Soil & land management 111 373 0 VH, VH, VH N, N, N
Total natural resource management employment 232 926 0
VH = very high (total employment potential > 20 000 direct jobs; manufacturing potential > 3 000 direct jobs)H = high (total employment potential > 8 000, but 20 000; manufacturing potential > 1 000 but 3 000)M = medium (total employment potential > 3 000, but 8 000; manufacturing potential > 500 but 1 000)L = low (total employment potential > 1 000, but 3 000; manufacturing potential > 150, but 500) VL = very low (total employment potential > 0, but 1 000; manufacturing potential > 0, but 150) N = negligible/none (total employment potential = 0; manufacturing potential = 0)
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Key success factors
Conducive regulatory environment
Securing resources
Generic issues Localisation
Developing skills
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Taking the lead, growing demand
Success factors
> 460 000 direct jobs
• Policy framework, pace of regulatory revision, amendment and development.
• Stakeholder communication and co-ordination.
• Simplification and streamlining.
• Public sector playing an exemplary role.
• Gradual, effective transformation of production and consumption patterns.
• Commitment, awareness and readiness by the private, public and household sectors.
• Institutional capabilities.
• Funding availability, incentives, mechanisms.
• Regional coordination.
• Integration and coordination.
• Local procurement and export market penetration to develop critical mass.
• Availability of competitively priced inputs and services.
• National industrialisation strategies.
• R&D capabilities and technology transfer.
• Address shortages of skills in certain areas.
• Re-skilling and development of specific skills capabilities.
• Availability, accessibility, quality, sustainability and pricing of required resources.
Key messages
• The greening of the SA economy can result in substantial net direct employment creation within the formal sectors.
• Jobs estimates escalate once multiplier effects are taken into account, whilst informal employment potential is considerable.
• Appropriate and conducive policy and regulatory environment, accompanied by effective public sector coordination, are crucial for the successful roll-out of the various green areas/technologies.
• The public sector should take the lead in driving the use of certain green technologies.
• Institutional capacity development is a prerequisite, especially at the local government level due to its crucial roll in a future greening of the SA economy.
• Long term industrialisation and localisation strategies are required, and need to be communicated clearly.
• Regional cooperation is deemed key for market development and sourcing of feedstock.
• Need to act without delay as the window of opportunity is limited.
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IDC19 Fredman DriveSandown
PO Box 784055Sandton2146South Africa
Telephone +27 (0)11 269 3000Facsimile +27 (0)11 269 2116www.idc.co.za
DBSAHeadway Hill1258 Lever Road, Midrand
PO Box 1234Halfway House1685South Africa
Telephone +27 (0)11 313 3911Facsimile +27(0)11 313 3086www.dbsa.org
TIPS826 Government RoadArcadia, Pretoria
PO Box 11214Hatfield0028South Africa
Telephone +27 (0)12 431 7900Facsimile +27 (0)12 431 7910www.tips.org.za
Thank you
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