Sitapur-Bareilly Section of NH 24 Gifford Review of Traffic Estimate Page 1 Report No SB/01 Report No. Gifford/Road-S-B/P01 September 2010 IMPLEMENTATION OF FOUR LANING OF BAREILLY SECTION OF NH-24 (FROM KM 262.00 TO KM 413.00) IN THE STATE OF UTTAR PRADESH UNDER NHDP PHASE III ON DBFOT BASIS CONSULTANCY SERVICES FOR REVIEW OF COST ESTIMATE & TRAFFIC VOLUME – 2 (REVIEW OF TRAFFIC REPORT)
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Sitapur-Bareilly Section of NH 24 Gifford Review of Traffic Estimate Page 1 Report No SB/01
Report No. Gifford/Road-S-B/P01 September 2010
IMPLEMENTATION OF FOUR LANING OF BAREILLY SECTION OF NH-24
(FROM KM 262.00 TO KM 413.00) IN THE STATE OF UTTAR PRADESH UNDER NHDP PHASE III ON DBFOT BASIS
CONSULTANCY SERVICES
FOR
REVIEW OF COST ESTIMATE & TRAFFIC
VOLUME – 2
(REVIEW OF TRAFFIC REPORT)
Sitapur-Bareilly Section of NH 24 Gifford Review of Traffic Estimate Page 2 Report No SB/01
Chapter-0
Executive Summary
0.1 BACKGROUND The National Highways Authority of India is entrusted by Government of India for development of National Highways and as part of this endeavor, the Authority has decided to undertake four Laning of Bareilly - Sitapur Section of NH- 24 from km 262.000 to 413.200 in the State of Uttar Pradesh under NHDP Phase III through private participation on Design, Build, Finance, Operate and Transfer (the "DBFOT") basis, and has decided to carry out the bidding process for selection of the Bidder to whom the Project may be awarded.
National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) had invited Proposals from the shortlisted bidders for the construction of Bareilly to Sitapur (NH 24) in Uttar Pradesh on DBFOT basis.
At Bidding Stage, ERA – Sibmost (JV) examined the Project details and work out their cost and revenue based on traffic, required for submitting bid. In the bidding process of NHAI has found ERA – Sibmost (JV) as preferred bidders and appointed them as Concessionaire for carrying out the assignments. After award of the contract ERA INFRA ENGINEERING LTD worked out the cost and traffic and presented its financial model to the Bankers for seeking the loan.
ERA INFRA ENGINEERING LTD further appointed M/s Gifford India Pvt Ltd (100% subsidiary of Gifford UK) vide their letter dated 23rd July 2010to review the cost and traffic data.
This report consists of review of cost of the project based on data supplied by M/s ERA INFRA ENGINEERING LTD to Gifford India Pvt. Ltd. The report on traffic survey, analysis and forecasting will submitted separately.
0.2 PROJECT SCOPE The present study corridor is two lane road starts from Bareilly at Km.262+000 to Sitapur at Km. 413+200 on NH - 24 in the state of Uttar Pradesh. Total project length is approximately 156.5 Km (including bypass) the project road passes through important Divisional head quarters namely Bareilly, Shahjahanpur and Sitapur in the state of Uttar Pradesh.
The existing carriageway width is generally 6.800 to 7.000m in the stretch of the road section. There are lines of matured trees in some stretches on both the sides of the road at a distance of
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about 5.5 m to 8.5 m from the centerline of the project road which require cutting to facilitate four laning of the road.
The salient features of project road are as follows
• The project starts at km.262.000 (near Bareilly) and ends at km.413.200 (near
Sitapur) covering a length of 151.200 km on NH-24. The project falls in the state
of Uttar Pradesh.
• The land use pattern of the project area is mostly Agricultural with small portion
of industrial, built up and barren lands.
• The average ROW width varies from 40.00m to 45.00m. The proposed ROW
width for four laning is 60m in Non-Urban areas and 45 m in Urban areas.
• All the permanent structures from minor to major bridges are proposed to be
constructed for 4-lane carriageway. In case of existing major bridge not requiring
reconstruction, the existing 2- lane C/W shall be maintained & 2-lane new C/W
shall be constructed. The project involves improvement of existing 8 nos 2-lane
major bridges and 14 nos. existing minor/small bridges to be reconstructed. All
the 159 culverts have to be dismantled and reconstructed to 4-lanes.
• There are 15 major intersections on the project stretch out of which 2
intersections are proposed for provision of vehicular underpasses,1 intersections
are proposed for provision of ROB, 2 intersections are proposed for provision of
4-lane flyovers and 2 intersections are proposed for provision of 2-lane cross
flyovers across the project road.
• Four ROB’s are proposed at km.289.660, km 334.475, km 398.130 and km
407.660. Existing ROB at km 334.475 have to be reconstructed to accommodate
vertical clearance requirement. The existing 2-lane C/W of ROB at 407.660 has
to be retained and an additional 2-Lane C/W with foot path is proposed. Two new
ROB’s are proposed at existing level crossing at km 289.660 & km 398.130 with
4-lane.
• Truck lay byes and rest areas are proposed at 10 locations at km 263/400, km
274/050, km 286/400, km 304/000, km 320/600, km 331/300, km 346/400, km
368/100, km 380/000 & km 403/000 (Existing chainage)
• Two Toll Plazas are proposed in the project at km.267/000 & km 370/000.
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• Service roads of 7m width are proposed in selected built up areas aggregating to
a total length of 38.100 km.
• Footpaths of 2m width are proposed in selected built up areas corresponding to
the provision of service roads with pedestrian guard rails.
• The project road passes through 12 important urban areas.
• 29 numbers of bus bays with passenger shelters and 10 numbers passenger
shelters are proposed in the project.
• Five bypasses are proposed to bypass the congested Built-up area, with a total
length of 28.76 km approx. as under: - .
o Faridpur from Km 267.800 to 273.050 for 5.25 Kms.
o Rouza from Km 331.360 to 336.900 for 5.540 Kms.
o Jung Bahadurganj from Km 356.19 to Km 361.020 for 4.83 Kms.
o Maigal ganj from Km 373.950 to Km 380.400 for 6.45 Kms.
o Maholi from Km 389.220 to 395.910 for 6.69 Kms.
• Approx. 21,000 trees of various girths are proposed to be felled for the project.
• Shifting of 1547 electric posts and 333 telephone posts is envisaged.
0.3 Project Traffic Review Based on initial discussions with M/s ERA INFRA ENGINEERING LTD a methodology has been worked out to review the traffic of the project. The broad review has been carried in following manner
M/s ERA INFRA ENGINEERING LTD is requested to supply all the relevant data
related to the project traffic.
Study the Details of Traffic Scenario by experienced Traffic Engineer
Conduct 7 Day Independent traffic volume count at 2 proposed toll plaza locations.
Preparation of traffic report based on the 7 Day CVC conducted at 2 locations
To compare the results with that of M/s ERA INFRA ENGINEERING LTD already
provided to the bank.
Discussions of our observations with M/s ERA INFRA ENGINEERING LTD
0.4 Data Supplied by ERA INFRA ENGINEERING LTD
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On request from Consultant M/s ERA Infra Engineering Ltd has supplied the following data:
Traffic Survey Report
Traffic Analysis & Growth Projection Report
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TRAFFIC REPORT BASED ON PRESENT TRAFFIC STUDY
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General
National Highway Authority of India (NHAI) has taken up the rehabilitation and
strengthening of existing 2‐lane road to 4‐lane dual carriageway configuration of
Bareilly‐ Sitapur Section of NH‐24 from km. 262.000 to km. 413.200 in the State of Uttar
Pradesh.
In order to capture the traffic characteristics along the project road a detailed traffic
study has been carried out. The main objectives of the traffic surveys are:
• To assess the volume of traffic flow and their characteristics.
• To assess the future growth rates of traffic
• To forecast the future traffic demand for next 30 years
• To assess the tollable traffic for next 25 years
The location map of the project road is shown below.
Fig. 1.1: Location Map
Traffic Survey Locations
Classified traffic volume counting and Origin‐Destination surveys have been carried out
at two proposed toll plaza locations along the project corridor. The locations and
schedule of traffic surveys are as given below.
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Table 1.1: Traffic Surveys Schedule
Sl.
NoType of Survey Duration Location Date(s) of Survey
7 Days km. 267.000 26‐07‐2010 to 01‐08‐20101 Classified Volume Count (CVC)
7 Days km. 370.000 26‐07‐2010 to 01‐08‐2010
24 Hours km. 267.000 28‐08‐2010 2 Origin – Destination (O‐D)
24 Hours km. 370.000 30‐08‐2010
Vehicle Classification System The vehicle classification used in the survey along with their PCU values, as suggested in
IRC: 64 – 1990, are presented below in Table 1.2.
Table 1.2: Vehicle Classification and PCU Factors
Vehicle Type PCU factor
Fast Moving Vehicles
Two Wheeler 0.5
Three Wheeler (Auto Rickshaw) 1.0
Car, Jeep and Van 1.0
Mini Bus 1.5
Bus 3.0
Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) 1.5
2‐Axle truck 3.0
3‐Axle Truck 3.0
Multi Axle Vehicle (MAV) – 4‐6 Axles 4.5
Multi Axle Vehicle (MAV) – > 6
Axles
4.5
Agriculture Tractor 1.5
Agriculture Tractor with Trailer 4.5
Slow Moving Vehicles
Cycle 0.5
Cycle‐Rickshaw 2.0
Animal Drawn Cart 6.0
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Classified Volume Count Surveys
The classified volume count surveys at both the locations as mentioned above were
commenced w.e.f. 26 July 2010 for 7 consecutive days (both directions) from 8:00 AM
till 8:00 AM of 01 August 2010. Traffic counting was carried out manually by trained
enumerators using hand tally marks. The traffic flows were recorded in 15 minutes
intervals on the prescribed format and vehicle classification system as specified in TOR.
The analysis of the classified traffic volume count observed at the count locations was
carried out to arrive at the:
• Average Daily Traffic (ADT) • Day wise Variation • Hourly Variation • Traffic composition • Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT)
Average Daily Traffic (ADT)
The 7 day traffic volume count data collected at each of the survey location was averaged out to arrive at the location wise average daily traffic (ADT) on the project road sections. The direction‐wise summary of ADT in terms of vehicles at the two survey locations on project road is given in Table 1.3.
The details pertaining to day and direction wise distribution of traffic at the survey
locations is given in Annexure 1.1.
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Travel Pattern (Origin‐Destination Surveys)
In order to understand the travel demand pattern in the region, Origin and Destination
(O‐D) Surveys were carried out for one day (24 hours) at both the proposed toll plaza
locations i.e., at km. 267+000 and km. 370+000 on 28th July 2010 and 30th July 2010
respectively. The surveys were typically started in the morning and continued till the
next day morning. The OD surveys were carried out by roadside interview method as
described in IRC: 102‐1988. Police assistance was taken at the survey locations for
successfully carrying out these surveys. Both passenger and commercial vehicles plying
on the project road were stopped on a random sampling basis and interviewed.
The travel pattern obtained by OD survey facilitates to study the distribution of traffic
and potential divertible traffic from the project road. Trained enumerators under the
supervision of senior engineers of Gifford, have collected the trip characteristics using
the survey forms designed for this purpose. The OD survey elicited characteristics like
origin, destination, frequency, purpose and commodity etc. both for passenger and
goods vehicles. The information collected during roadside interviews was analysed to
obtain the trip distribution based on a zoning system suitably designed in the study.
Zoning System
For delineating the zoning system, the entire country was broadly divided into two
regions. These are, Immediate Influence Area (IIA) and Broad Influence Area (BIA) of the
project. The area adjacent to the project road, which contributes most of the trips,
observed on the project road, namely, Bareilly, Shahiahanpur, Kheri, Hardoli, Sitapur
etc., & other parts of Uttar Pradesh constitute IIA, where as, other states in the country
constitute BIA. In all 25 zones were defined for the project, while defining zone
boundaries the following were considered:
• Important towns and industrial centers along the project roads in the total
stretch.
• Administrative boundaries of district and state boundaries.
• Configuration of the project roads in the regional road network with respect to
other National Highways.
The zoning system considered for the study is given in Table 1.7.
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Table 1.7: List of zones for the project
Zone Name of the Zone Zone Name of the Zone 1 Bareilly 14 Moradabad, Budaun 2 Shahiahanpur , Faridpur 15 Rampur 3 Kheri 16 Nainital, Almora, Pithoragarh 4 Hardoi 17 Bijnor, Garhwal, Chamoli, Uttarkashi
* Economics and Statistics Division, Govt. of Uttar Pradesh
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From the above, it can be seen that no. of vehicles plying in Uttar Pradesh State has a steady growth and this data has been considered for estimate travel demand elasticities.
Elasticity of Growth
Passenger traffic demand is a function of growth of population, per capita income and
growth of the state. Similarly, state income growth and industrial, mining and
agriculture production mostly governs the freight traffic growth. In line with this
philosophy, the elasticity of traffic demand has been estimated for car, bus and truck
with respect to the past traffic growth. The resultant elasticity values are presented in
the following table.
Table 1.17: Regression Analysis Results
Dependent Variable
Independent Variable
Period Elasticity Value
R2 T ‐ stat.
log of NSDP 2002‐2007 1.087 0.904 6.130 log of Population 2002‐2007 5.857 0.935 7.585 log of Car log of PCI 2002‐2007 1.332 0.895 5.849 log of NSDP 2002‐2007 0.132 0.394 1.613 log of Population 2002‐2007 0.674 0.364 1.514 log of Bus log of PCI 2002‐2007 0.164 0.401 1.635 log of NSDP 2002‐2007 0.933 0.926 7.092 log of Population 2002‐2007 5.019 0.954 9.111
log of Truck
log of PCI 2002‐2007 1.144 0.919 6.720
The elasticity values shown in the above table reflect a substantial co‐relation between
economic indicators and traffic growth rates as reflected in their R2, elasticity and t‐stat
values. Hence, it is appropriate to consider the growth pattern that has emerged out of
the economic model which related the economic growth with the growth in registration
of vehicles. In the next stage, considering the various factors such as likely future
orientation of the economy, modal shift, user preference, developments in vehicle
technology, market driven forces and finally the past performance, the elasticity values
are projected for the analysis period.
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Moderated Transport Demand Elasticity The above discussion indicates that the estimated ‘e’ values, as presented in the above
table could not be considered to represent the future growth pattern. Also, the future
traffic growth pattern is likely to be affected by the following factors:
• Recent economic changes taking place in the project influence region.
• Future modal shift among vehicle types, in road traffic as well as between
various modes.
• Development in vehicle technology.
• Elasticity values considered in the recent road projects in the study region or
recommended by multilateral funding institutions for Indian Road/Highway
Projects.
With this background, it is necessary to moderate the elasticity values to accommodate
the above factors discussed as well as to arrive at the growth rates that are within
realistic limits.
The elasticity values with PCI/Population for passenger traffic and with NSDP for goods
traffic are considered. The elasticity value for cars and trucks have been derived by
moderating the values arrived at from the regression analysis of past vehicle registration
data, such that it is in close agreement with the value as specified in the “Road
Development Plan Vision: 2021”, Indian Roads Congress, 2001.The elasticity values
considered for future projection is given below.
Table 1.18: Recommended Elasticity
Sl. No. Vehicle Type 2010‐2014 2015‐2019 2020‐2024 Beyond 2024
Based on the moderated elasticity values and the projected economic/demographic
indicators, the future average annual compound traffic growth rates by vehicle type
have been estimated by using the following formulae and presented in the following
table.
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For Cars : Tgr = (PCIgr) x E
For Bus & Mini Bus : Tgr = Average of (NSDPgr) and (PCIgr) x E
For Trucks (LCV, 2‐AT, 3‐AT & MAV): Tgr = (NSDPgr) x E
Where
Tgr ‐ Traffic Growth Rate POPgr ‐ Per‐Capita Income Growth Rate PCIgr ‐ Per‐Capita Income Growth Rate NSDPgr ‐ Net State Domestic Product Growth Rate E ‐ Elasticity Value
Table 1.22: Traffic Growth Rates
Sl. No. Vehicle Type 2010‐2014 2015‐2019 2020‐2024 Beyond 2024
1 Car 6.50 5.66 4.48 3.86 2 Mini Bus & Bus 4.00 3.67 3.24 2.56 3 LCV 6.55 6.03 5.45 4.74 4 2‐AT 6.19 5.57 4.88 4.00 5 3‐AT 6.92 6.23 5.46 4.47 1 MAV 6.92 6.23 5.46 4.47
Tollable Traffic Distribution Analysis
As per rule no. 9 (regarding discounts to tollable traffic) of the notification released by
MoRTH, vide GSR 838 (E), dated 5th December 2008, the concessionaire has to give
discounts to the traffic crossing the toll plaza based on their distribution. The same has
duly considered in the present study and after a thorough analysis of the O‐D data, the
following distribution of tollable traffic has arrived.
Table 1.23: Tollable Traffic Distribution at km. 267+000
Distribution of Tollable Traffic (%) of AADT Sl.
No.
Vehicle
Type Local
Monthly
Through
Traffic
Return/Round
Trip
Monthly Pass
(50 Single Journeys)
At Toll Plaza 1: km. 267+000 1 Car 15 54 11 20 2 Mini Bus N/A 25 12 63 3 Bus N/A 05 04 91 4 LCV N/A 96 03 01 5 2‐AT N/A 98 01 01 6 3‐AT N/A 99 01 00 7 MAV N/A 100 00 00
Sitapur-Bareilly Section of NH 24 Gifford Review of Traffic Estimate Page 36 Report No SB/01
Distribution of Tollable Traffic (%) of AADT Sl.
No.
Vehicle
Type Local
Monthly
Through
Traffic
Return/Round
Trip
Monthly Pass
(50 Single Journeys)
At Toll Plaza 2: km. 370+000 1 Car 6 63 12 19 2 Mini Bus N/A 25 0 75 3 Bus N/A 35 01 64 4 LCV N/A 97 02 01 5 2‐AT N/A 98 01 01 6 3‐AT N/A 100 00 00 7 MAV N/A 100 00 00
Tollable Traffic Projections
Tollable traffic at both the proposed toll plaza locations viz at km. 267.000 and km.
370.000 for the next 30 years are presented below. Detailed calculations are given in
Annexure 1.3.
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Table 1.24 (a): LOCAL MONTHLY PASS TRAFFIC AT TOLL PLAZA 1 (km. 267.000)
Year Car Mini Bus
Bus LCV 2‐AT 3‐AT MAV (4‐6 Axles)
MAV (>6 Axles)
Total Tollable Vehicles
Total Tollable PCUs
2010 347 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 347 347
2011 370 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 370 370
2012 394 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 394 394
2013 420 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 420 420
2014 447 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 447 447
2015 472 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 472 472
2016 499 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 499 499
2017 527 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 527 527
2018 557 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 557 557
2019 589 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 589 589
2020 615 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 615 615
2021 643 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 643 643
2022 672 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 672 672
2023 702 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 702 702
2024 733 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 733 733
2025 761 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 761 761
2026 790 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 790 790
2027 820 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 820 820
2028 852 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 852 852
2029 885 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 885 885
2030 919 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 919 919
2031 954 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 954 954
2032 991 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 991 991
2033 1029 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1029 1029
2034 1069 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1069 1069
2035 1110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1110 1110
2036 1153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1153 1153
2037 1198 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1198 1198
2038 1244 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1244 1244
2039 1292 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1292 1292
2040 1342 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1342 1342
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Table 1.24 (b): THROUGH TRAFFIC AT TOLL PLAZA 1 (km. 267.000)