Traditions of Forward Looking and Global Megatrends in Russia and the ‘Rest of the World’ FLIS Workshop Euroepan Environment Agency, 13 November 2013 Gilbert Ahamer, Environment Agency Austria
Dec 26, 2015
Traditions of Forward Looking and Global Megatrends
in Russia and the ‘Rest of the World’
FLIS WorkshopEuroepan Environment Agency, 13 November 2013
Gilbert Ahamer, Environment Agency Austria
What will we see here?
Contemplate theoretical “clarities” along your pathsWorld systems theory
Dependency theory
Growth theory
Narrative history
Neo-classical economics Keynesian economics Political economics
Critical geography
Quantitative revolution
Possibilism
Environm. determinism
Global Studies train: “When do I use which theory?”
VIEWS FROM SOCIAL, ECONOMIC AND CULTURAL GEOGRAPHIES
1.Gilbert AhamerGlobal Studies 4
The “magnetic field” of our globalisation discourse
Modernisation theory
The concept of modernisation tries to replace earlier concepts such as “development” (in case of negative sign: underdevelopment, backwardness) or progress by a value-free term but is never-theless still tacitly used connected with an emphasis on values and teleological orientation.
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Dependency theory
Reason for underdevelopment of countries
would not be internal but external factors such as especially colonialism. By executing power the developed countries would
succeed in keeping the less developed countries in an ongoing state of poverty.
“Why are some rich and some poor?” Classical “growth theory” tries to understand causes of economic growth,
it sees economic growth constituted by “production factors” such as Capital / investment Soil / land Labour / workforce Technology Education Human resources
… and cautiously extends out to cultural and political parameters …
… and strongly believes in correlations of points …?
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?
See Paul Rosling’s (optimistic) view of development at gapminder, flixxy or youtube
Are economies converging or diverging over the course of time?
(Hypothesised) timelines of economy Nikolai D. Kondratieff’s long waves (Николай Дмитриевич Кондратьев, 1892-1938)
figure from Knox & Agnew 1997)
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“time geography”
Synopsis of two cyclic theories 1 Kondratieff cycle = 2 Kuznets cycles (figure from Knox & Agnew 1997) The inverse U-shaped Kuznets curve:
mathematically, it produces oscillations Compare S.’s “precognitive understandings” in history: Oswald Spängler etc.
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“Big History”
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“Big History”
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“Big History”
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“Big History”
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“Big History”
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“Big History”
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“Big History”
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“Big History”
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“Big History”
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“Big History”
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Main types of view of a global future• Global Studies
is a multi-paradigmatic science!
LONG-TERM TRENDS IN SOCIO-ECONOMIC
AND CIVILISATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
2.Gilbert AhamerGlobal Studies 20
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Representing dynamics globally: data • Materials and methods in
this step:• The “Global Change Data
Base” (GCDB, © G. Ahamer) =• Global data sets for
– population– land use– economy– energy
T H E S O C I O - E C O N O M I C D A T A B A S E f o r t h e H I G H - R E S O L U T I O N B I O S P H E R E M O D E L H R B M ( 1 9 9 4 ) , G r a z - A u s t r i aD a t a e x t r a c t e d f r o m : A G R O S T A T / P C , V e r s i o n 2 . 0 , F A O , R o m e , 1 9 9 3
C e r e a l s - P r o d u c t i o n I n d e x1 9 7 9 - 8 1 = 1 0 0
C o m m e n t :
W o r l d t o t a l 1 9 7 1 :
W o r l d t o t a l 1 9 9 1 :B a h a m a s
B e lize
C a n a d a
C o sta R ic a
C u b a
D o m in ic a n R e p .
E l S a lv a d o r
G re e n la n d
G u a te m a la
H a iti
H o n d u ra s
Ja m a ic a
M e xic o
N ic a ra g u a
P a n a m a
U S A + A la sk a
A rg e n tin a
B o liv ia
B ra zil
C h ile
C o lo m b ia
E c u a d o r
8 1 , 6 61 2 1 , 6 7
D a t a f o r w o r l d r e g i o n s
2 0
4 0
6 0
8 0
1 0 0
1 2 0
1 4 0
1 6 0
1 9 6 0 1 9 6 5 1 9 7 0 1 9 7 5 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 0
S o v i e t U n i o n
A f r i c a
A s i a
E u r o p e
N + C A m e r i c a
O c e a n i a
S o u t h A m e r i c a
W o r l d
2 6 7W o r l d : l i n e a r t r e n d f o r 2 0 5 0 :
W o r l d : a v e r a g e a n n . c h a n g e : 2 , 8 3 %
A f r i c aA s i aE u r o p eN + C A m e r i c aO c e a n i aS o u t h A m e r i c a
2 4 7 3 0 5 2 5 7 2 1 7 2 5 3 2 6 6 2 1 9S o v i e t U n i o n
R e g i o n s : l i n e a r t r e n d 2 0 5 0 :
Transformation of co-ordinates
Instead of plotting reality as a function of time We decide to plot reality as a function of GDP/cap … in order to better perceive structural changes and
patterns of global dynamic change
= real time:
complex graphic structure
evolutionary time of development:
simpler graphical structuretime t GDP/cap
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Evolving pattern in economic structures… inspired by evolving patterns in energy structures (Marchetti & Nakicenovic at IIASA):
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1 direction of civilisatoric evolution
3 m
anuf
actu
ring
100
100 1000 10000
[% GDP]
10
1
0.1
10
1 agr
icul
ture
2 m
inin
g
4 el
ectri
city
, gas
, wate
r
5 co
nstru
ctio
n
6 tr
ade
7 tr
ansp
ort &
com
mun
icat
ion
8 fin
ance
& i
nsur
ance
9 c
omm
unity
&so
cial
ser
vic
es
relative importance at the moment
[$/ cap]
= what increases strongly: electricity & gas communication financial institutions medical services
= what increases:
metal products & machinery water works construction wholesale & retail trade insurance real estate & business serv. dwellings medical services social & related services recreational & cultural serv. personal & household serv..
= what at least does not decrease:
paper & print chemicals
Growth rates in the global agricultural systemThe agricultural scenario for the HRBM:
average annual increase rates 1960-91 displayed for the continents
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
World Africa Asia Europe N+CAmerica
Oceania SouthAmerica
f. SovietUnion
sum of all six annualfactors 1960-91:(1) AREA DEMANDED
cereals area harv. /cereals production:(2) PRODUCTIVITY
cereals production /cereals supply(3) TRADE
cereals supply / cerealsfood:(4) DISTRIBUTION,OTHER USES
Structural change innutrition habits:(5) QUALITY OF FOOD
cereals food / capita(excl. struct. change):(6) AMOUNT OF FOOD
population increase for1960-91:(7) POPUL. GROWTH
average annualincrease rate
5.0% 4.3%
Gilbert AhamerGlobal Studies 24Detailed explanation of this EU project: read here
Structural shifts for energy sources• How do percentages of fuels change?
change rates of sharesshares
We observe the following transitions:
• Population transition• Land use change transition / deforestation tr.• Agricultural & food transition• Transition of economic sectors• Energy transition
• Nonetheless, we don’t believe in determinism: design, act and construct the world!
• Hope = (voluntary) learning effectsGilbert AhamerGlobal Studies 26
EVOLUTION AND CHANGE IN STRUCTURES OF NEEDS
3.Gilbert AhamerGlobal Studies 27
A principal evolutionary pattern? Evolution often seems to follow a sigma curve (saturation curve)
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initial value: state = A
initial value: flow =
= final value: flow
Z = final value: state
upper limit
initial value, e.g. natural worldi
final value, e.g. man-made world
lower limit
succeeding parameters of development
direction of development
initial value: flow =
Thinking in paths as a hypothesis ...
• ... means: along evolution towards higher GDP/cap some paths of development are more likely than others
• Possible heuristic confirmation by phenomena: establish correlations
• example: the “growth literature”:Y = f(“factors”) such as capital, land, human ressources, education, institutional structure ...
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A possible overall view on evolution! Do targets themselves evolve along evolution? ... the more targets are fulfilled, the more they seem to decrease in importance We see: systemic structures themselves evolve, not only levels of values
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A possible genesis of “targets”?
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One ”preconceptive understanding” (Schumpeter)
A proposed paradigm(“–“ = “up-show”) Techno-socio-economic evolutionPierre Teilhard de Chardin (1950),
a colleague of Vernadsky
convergence – divergence?
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Paul Raskin: “Transitions”
:
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Paul Raskin at SEI and his team produced a seminal book (see ppt in WebCT)
Shifting views: a principle along evolution?
Popu- lation
growth
Search for new
land
Global Change & Environ-
ment
Work
Well- ness
Tradit. ethics
movement into focus of perception
movement out of focus
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Thank you...
... for your comments and critical questions!
!!