8/6/2019 Trade Winds - Volume 2 Issue 2 http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/trade-winds-volume-2-issue-2 1/13 1 Snapshot of India’s exports in JanuaryIndia's export in January grew by 32.5 percent to $20.6 billion year -on-year, whereas the imports were $28.6 billion, up 13.1 per cent from the same month last year, Commerce Secretary Rahul Khullar said. During the period Apr-Jan 2011 exports touched $184.6 billion, an increase of 29.4 percent, while imports were $273.60 billion with a growth of 17.6 percent. China’s increasing Iron Ore importsChina’s iron ore imports in the month of December rose by 1.2 percent (MoM) to 58.08 million tonnes. This is the highest level in nine months. Furthermore, Orissa, India’s top iron ore producing state stopped 23 iron ore mines from operating as they did not submit the proof of clearances. Supplies from India have already been tight due to ban on shipments from Karnataka. Railways’ hiking the freight rate by 50 percent to 1500/tonne is only adding to the cost. Overall, price or iron ore is expected to continue to move higher given the positive drivers from both supply and demand side. On the supply side, challenging weather conditions in top producing nations like Australia and Brazil is leading to decline in output while demand continues to remain in China. The risk factor for higher price however remains that if the higher price of steel deters demand then it might even impact the iron ore prices. News Snippets Abhijith Vasudevan, MBA(IB), 1 st year Contents News Snippets 1 Oil Prices: Peaking Out? 4 International Trade & Logistic: Overview 5 WTO vs Regional Trade Blocks 7 Company Profile: Olam International 10 Implications of Budget 2011 on Trade 12 Chief Editor Oojwal Manglik Editorial Team Ankush Mehta Abhijith Vasudevan Shiv Kumar Gupta [email protected][email protected]IIFT’s Monthly Newsletter on National & International Trade March 2011 Volume II, Issue II
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India's export in January grew by 32.5 percent to $20.6 billion year
-on-year, whereas the imports were $28.6 billion, up 13.1 per centfrom the same month last year, Commerce Secretary Rahul Khullar said. During the period Apr-Jan 2011 exports touched $184.6
billion, an increase of 29.4 percent, while imports were $273.60 billion with a growth of 17.6 percent.
China’s increasing Iron Ore imports
China’s iron ore imports in
the month of December rose by 1.2 percent (MoM)
to 58.08 million tonnes.This is the highest level innine months. Furthermore,Orissa, India’s top iron ore
producing state stopped 23iron ore mines fromoperating as they did not submit the proof of clearances. Suppliesfrom India have already been tight due to ban on shipments fromKarnataka. Railways’ hiking the freight rate by 50 percent to
1500/tonne is only adding to the cost.
Overall, price or iron ore is expected to continue to move higher given the positive drivers from both supply and demand side. Onthe supply side, challenging weather conditions in top producingnations like Australia and Brazil is leading to decline in outputwhile demand continues to remain in China. The risk factor for higher price however remains that if the higher price of steel detersdemand then it might even impact the iron ore prices.
News SnippetsAbhijith Vasudevan, MBA(IB), 1st year
India Malaysia CECAIndia and Malaysia have signed an economic
partnership agreement that is expected toraise bilateral trade to $15 billion by 2015, justtwo days after New Delhi inked a similar pactwith Tokyo, consolidating India's burgeoningeconomic ties with east and southeast Asia. Thecomprehensive economic cooperationagreement (CECA) will come into force July 1.Under the pact, the two countries will allow upto 100 percent foreign shareholding in morethan 80 areas, including health care,telecommunications, retail, environmentalservices and other areas. Service sectors likeaccounting and auditing, architecture, urban
planning, engineering services, medical anddental, IT and IT-enabled services, andmanagement consulting services will get accessto the Malaysian market. India will get access inthe Malaysian market for goods including fruitssuch as mangoes, banana and guava, basmati
rice, two-wheelers and cotton garments.
Consensus on import duty key
to Doha round success
Zeroing in on an agreeable rate of exchange onimport duties among member nations was key toconcluding the talks on a global free tradeagreement or the Doha round at the WorldTrade Organization (WTO), a top WTO spokes-
person said on February 19.
However, after the Davos summit, the sluggish pace of negotiations had finally set moving at a pace not seen in almost past three years, saidKeith Rockwell, official spokesperson, WTO ata press meet. Last month, at the WorldEconomic Forum (WEF) at Davos, leadingtrading nations agreed to conclude Doha round
of talks by July this year. “The Indian position
has been tough and they have been skillfulnegotiators. But they agree now that they willhave to give a bit more to get a bit more. Thereal question right now is what the rate of exchange is,” he said.
Differences in opinion among WTO member nations on farm subsidies and sectorals, have
been the main stumbling blocks in the Doharound, launched in 2001. Under sectorals,
negotiating countries have to agree to cut importduties in some sectors at a faster pace than other sectors. Rockwell said there had been asubstantial convergence in agriculture-relatedissues among nations, but talks in other sectorslike trade environment and intellectual propertyrights were at a lesser advanced stage. In 2008,at the WTO Mini-Ministerial in Geneva, thetalks collapsed on issues like sharp differenceson agricultural Special Safeguard Mechanism(SSM) and subsidies. “The picture has changed.
The negotiations have been accelerating at a pace not seen since 2008. For the first time,everyone is saying that they know what needs to
be done. All are saying that we know we need togive more,” he said.
Commodities Traders May
Face Curbs under EU
Proposal
Commodity traders in the European Union mayface restrictions including position limits under
proposals from the European Commissionaimed at curbing excessive price volatility. Pricefluctuations hurt farmers, food-makers andconsumers, including in the poorest countries,the commission said. This will help ease
pressure on world food prices that stem out of speculation in commodity markets. World food
costs rose to a record in December on higher costs for sugar, grain and oilseeds.
Rare Earths
The European Commission also said it plans toidentify “priority actions” to ensure access to 14
“critical” raw materials. This list includes so-called rare earths -- a group of 17 chemicallysimilar materials used in renewable energy,magnets, electric cars and weapons. Positionlimits restrict the relative share of the marketoccupied by one investor. Such limits shouldtake account of “the specificities of the different
types of derivative products,” and the “evolution
of the physical market of the relevantcommodity,” the commission said.
Restrictions could be applied to derivatives bothtraded on exchanges and over the counter, thecommission said. Barnier said the EU executiveis examining whether to apply them to “real”
markets as well as derivatives.
DGFT allows exports of varieties of rice
In a notification,India’s Directorate
General of ForeignTrade (DGFT) saidthe government has
permitted exports of 'Ponni Samba' and 'Matta' varieties of basmati,subject to a cap of 25,000 tonnes each, while
shipments of 'Sona Masuri' have been permittedwith a cap of 1,00,000 tonnes.
India Top Court Allows Iron
Ore Shipments From
Karnataka Ports
India’s top court today allowed shipments of
iron ore accumulated at ports in Karnataka, pending its verdict on a ban on exports of thesteelmaking raw material from the nation’s
second-largest producing state.
The regional government must enact by the nexthearing on April 4 rules covering transport andstorage of metals in the state’s new mining law,
the Supreme Court said today in an interimorder. About 400,000 metric tons of iron ore arelying at the ports, David Pichamuthu, director at
the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries, saidtoday in an interview.
Olam-Louis Dreyfus merger a
no-go
Olam International Ltd. said talks have ceasedwith French group Louis Dreyfus Commoditiesabout a possible business collaboration, puttingan end to speculation that the two companiesmight merge.
SIAM strikes protectionist
note with India-EU trade
agreement
The proposed India-EU trade agreement hasdivided car makers with Pawan Goenka, the
president of industry body Society of IndianAutomobile Manufacturers (Siam), opposingany move to cut duty on imported cars. g for-eign luxury car makers such as Audi, Mercedesand BMW, batting for lower tariffs.
Recently with the Egypt protests dying down,there was some relief for the energy tradersaround the world regarding the crude prices , butwith the recent turmoil in Bahrain and Libya ,
North Sea Brent Crude goes past $119.79 a barrel last week and touching its 30 month
highs. The crude for March delivery in the NewYork Mercantile Exchange was up to anintraday high of $99.96 before coming down to$97.43 on Monday. It again raised the concernsregarding the stability of the crude pricesglobally. The race for the scarce energy supplies
because of the tension in the Gulf and the risingcrude prices are becoming a threat to thedeveloping countries of the world especially toChina and India. The Bahrain and Saudi ArabiaCDS also rose to their 19 month highs indicatingfears of a domino effect to the neighboringeffect to the oil rich countries. The five year credit default swaps for Bahrain closed at 285
bps on Friday. Bahrain itself is not a oil richnation but the real problem is that it is next toSaudi Arabia , the world’s largest crude exporter
arising the chances of a spillover effect.
The MENA (Middle East and North Africa)region has huge reserves of petroleum and
natural gas. Around 8 out of the 12 OPECcountries are in the MENA region. According tothe Oil and Gas Journal (2009 report) this regionhas 61% of proved world’s reserves and is
responsible for 36% of global oil production.Libya also pumped 1.59 million barrels of crudea day in January, making it the eighth biggest oil
producing OPEC nation with quotas. Traders areworrying that the protests which have alreadyremoved two leaders in power can lead to a
disruption in crude supplies.
The rising crude prices can bring about a serioushalt in growth for the emerging economies of Asia, which are already suffering from highinflation and can result in breaking thefoundations like it did in 2008 with crude pricesspiking up to $150 a barrel. These countrieshave a higher dependence on energy than theWest. They rely on the cheap shipping costs totransport their exports with paper thin profit
margins. Analysts predict that once the MiddleEast tension goes away , prices should severelycorrect downwards as current prices are wayhigh fundamentally. Though the OPEC nationsare bound by quotas , but according to the latestReuters survey , the members of the OPEC are
producing 2 million barrels per day above their joint goal of 28.4 million bpd. The oil producingnations are taking advantage of a strong marketto virtually pump all they can but it is not yetclear whether that will be enough to meet the
increasing energy demand in Asia. Thoughaccording to recent data , oil inventories in USAhave fallen , but still it is well supplied andaccording to some experts it is oversupplied inthe Midwest. Again at the same the demand is
forecasted to hit a all time high of 90 million bpd. The rate of growth is lower in West as it isstill under stagnation. As the Chinesegovernment is planning to increase the interestrates to control the inflation , this should curbthe consumer demand and that of fuel.
Any Wikileaks follower will know by now thatit was recently released in one of its cables that asenior Saudi government oil executive that thekingdom's crude oil reserves may have been
overstated by as much as 300 billion barrels – nearly 40%. This brings back the fear of “Peak
Oil” theory. It is said that the oil reserves will
reach a maximum rate of global petroleum production by 2010-2020 , after which production will decline resulting in huge rise inoil prices. Recently Russia surpassed SaudiArabia last year making it the biggest producer of “black gold” . The Saudi explanation given
for not increasing its production is that there isno demand. But it is indeed surprising that
Russia found customers for it 10 million bpd of production but Saudi Arabia could not find anyone for more than their present production. Asoil prices are rallying only in one direction
because of the shortfall in Libya , SaudiAramco , the world’s largest state oil company
is ready to compensate for any shortfall in crudesupply. More than half of Libya’s crude output
of 1.6 million has been halted. For all the shortterm traders out there the outlook for cruderemains bearish as long as it is under its
Resistance of $92 and Longs can be initiatedabove the Support of $85.
International trade logisticsand shipping: An overview
Abhijeet Pethkar, Paramjeet Singh NITIE, Mumbai
Logistic is the lifeblood of supply chain. No onecan think of successful supply chain withoutsuccessful logistics. Globalization indulge moreand more companies to hunt internationalmarkets, demanding logistics services to be
more sophisticated, pushing for integration anddiversification of services to help operateuninterrupted supply chains. Freighttransportation uses one or more than one of these major modes: rail, road, air and water carriers, while pipelines currently contribute avery little in transportation. Logistic solutionsalso include warehousing, insurance,distribution, brokerages, inventory management,information system, packaging services. Various
players providing logistic support can be
broadly classified as Express couriers (FedEx,UPS), 3rd party logistics, Freight forwarders andIn-house export services.
World ScenarioAs per World Bank’s Logistics Performance
Index (LPI), which is a benchmarking tool thatmeasures performance along the logistics supplychain within a country trade, is directly linkedwith important economic outcomes, such astrade expansion, diversification of exports, andgrowth. Germany has very stable logisticindustry and since 2007 has raised by two to
Countries which want to improve its LPI need torevolutionize transport regulation policy,restructure and modernize border managementinstitutions, and if needed, invest significantly intrade-related infrastructure.
ChallengesEscalating Cost: In logistics there are two typesof cost: direct and indirect. Direct cost coversfuel cost, government duties while indirect costcovers cost associated with various cross border
bureaucracies and agencies; for instance USdepartment of agriculture on perishables, Foodand Drug Authority (FDA) on product safety etcfrom U.S. Owing to the terrorism, securities,time required for check-in and check -out hasincreased incurring more access cost. Aberdeensurveyed and interviewed more than 400international logistics and trade managers in2005. When asked to choose top 3 areas where
expense was huge, 67% of respondent pointedout transportation expense.
Manual intensive Processes: Logistics provider relying on manual processes are finding itdifficult to sustain the performance pressure as itincreases time and cost. The greatest problem of logistics performance is the lack of visibility andmetrics for managing logistics service providers
which can only be solved through technologyand automation
Road to Success
Building Partners: It is almost impossible to goalone in international arena of logistic, given thedynamic nature of target locations. A provider should figure out ways to synchronize activitiesand control of processes with custom brokers,freight forwarders, ocean carriers, other logistics
service providers in order to succeed. It shouldalso involve local logistic and operationalsupport early and often, which can give a deepinsight in new and unexplored areas.
Visibility and Control: International logistics isall about managing a network of third-party
providers. Companies which use phone calls,emails etc. to track down shipments are at acompetitive disadvantage. Real-time knowledgeof the location of goods throughout the supply
chain makes for faster-moving goods andinventory management in case of troubles likecongestion on some port etc. Systems such asData loggers, GPS, which provide automaticstatus and alerts, need to be set up. An alert canalso act as a proactive measure of controllingdeviated and delayed activities.
Automation and Streamline Documentation:
Automation of the processes is the need of thehour for swift progress of the logistic services.Streamlining Custom Processes by automatingdocumentation or by creating paperless structurecan reduce the time and cost.
Add-ons: Logistic providers basicallyconcentrate on transportation but if they giveadditional services like consultancy in businessareas by point out new strategic locations for client business, easy access to letters of credit
then this will help logistic provider in businessenlargement and will enhance its significance inthe Value Chain.
Indian Outlook:Total value of logistic industry in the world isUS $3.5 trillion and the major contributor is USwith the 25% of total logistics industry. As per CII Indian logistic industry is about US $125
billion i.e. 3.57% and it is forecasted it willgrow at CGAR at 8% in next three to five years.
India being a developing countries has a huge potential for growing in the fields of Retail,Agriculture, Pharmacy, Automobile, FMCG,Textile sectors which is mainly affected bytransportation conditions. Today India hasopportunity to reduce logistics cost because of its huge investment in infrastructure and also if Goods and Services Tax (GST) is implementedin FY12 or in the near future, differential statestaxes will eliminate and number of warehouseswill reduce. This will pave a way for more
integrated logistics solutions.
EpilogueGoing global, brings additional cost to thecompanies as they are experiencing unexpectedtransportation, higher inventory, unpredictablecycle times but consumers are demanding
products at same or rather at a lower prices. Soin order to compete, companies are finding waysto make their logistics processes more reliable,
flexible and less expensive. Thus success of logistics providers lies in proper implementationof best practices of logistics and determiningwhere the weakest links are and addressing themthrough targeted development.
WTO v/s Regional TradeBlocs
Ankit Bansal, Rohini Raman JhaSJSOM, Mumbai
ABSTRACT
Free trade is a system of trade policy that allows
traders to act and or transact without
interference from government. Under a free
trade policy, prices are a reflection of true sup-
ply and demand, and are the sole determinant of resource allocation. This policy is supported by
well-known economists like Adam Smith, John
Maynard Keynes and Ricardo.
The World Trade Organization (WTO)
established on January 1, 1995 is an important
international organization that governs and
promotes free trade by providing countries with
a platform to organize trade negotiations,settlement of trade disputes and removing all
forms of trade barriers. With 153 members and
31 observer nations it represents over 95% of
world trade. Recently, Regionalism is sweeping
the world trading system like wildfire while the
multilateral negotiations proceed at a glacial
pace. In the last 2 decades there has been a rapid
We all know Olam as one of the highest paymaster not just at IIFT but throughout theMBA placement circuit. Here’s an attempt to
explore Olam beyond what meets the eye.
Olam: An Indian entrepreneurial
Foresight
Kewalram Chanrai group now a global
conglomerate was started in 1860 by brothers
Kewalram and Chanrai in Hyderabad. In 1989,
the Kewalram Chanrai Group established Olam
Nigeria Plc to set up a non-oil based export
operation out of Nigeria. In its initial years,
Olam began its operations by setting up cashew
exports from Nigeria. Its global operations were
based out of London. Over time, exports were
expanded to cotton & cocoa. From 1993
onwards, Olam expanded to other geographies
such as Toga, Senegal and Ghana and shifted
the base of its global business from London to
Singapore. This allowed Olam to expand the
reach of its business across the world to
Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Brazil.
Today, Olam has an annual turnover of $9
billion and operations across more than 60
countries. It sources 20 products from over 45
origin countries and market them to over 10,000
customers with a global employee strength of
more than 13,000 employees.. It is the leader or
one of the top 3 supplier of all major
commodities be it Cocoa, Cashew, Sesame,
Cotton, Rice, Teak, etc worldwide. Olam’s
growth strategy in the first 20 years was driven
by a clear focus on their core business and a
systematic and repeatable formula for adjacency
expansion based on that core. In addition to
organic growth, they have also grown through
carefully selected acquisitions since 2007.
Growth at Olam has been a result of
innovation and the ability to spot opportunitiesbefore its competitors.
Olam has grown over the 20 years by taking
advantage of adjacent business opportunities in
business and acquiring new businesses and
competencies. Olam has strategized to evolve
from a one-product and one-country business to
a global business of 20 agricultural products
across more than 60 countries.
The Agri-business Value ChainThe agri-business value chain consists of four
parts:
An upstream piece which includes plantations, farming, forest concessions, dairyfarming, and agri-inputs.
A supply chain piece (Olam’s core) A midstream, value-added processing piece A downstream contract manufacturing,
private label manufacturing and distribution piece.
Olam has focused on developing expertise inwhole supply chain and processing of Agricommodities and while doing so extends thoseexpertises to new and more profitablecommodities.
strongly and consistently over the last 20 yearsacross both economic and commodity cycles.
Olam has built a strong business portfolio
based on key strengths developed over the past
two decades.
Olam’s Strengths Olam has historically maintained its business
model of dealing and enhancing its capabilities
in agri commodities.
Olam’s complete integration allows them to
control the supply chain, achieve operational
efficiencies, add value and manage the
various risks along the entire supply chain,
enabling Olam to exploit the margins that
can made in the supply chain.
Olam has consciously maintained the idea of
being the first mover in lookout for new
commodities in the new markets. Olam’s distinctive position is based on the
strength of their origination capability, their
strong position in the destination markets
worldwide by virtue of their ability to offer
customised marketing solutions and
value-added services to the customers.
The key to our strong core business is a
repeatable and scalable growth model that
has allowed the company to reinforce and
expand the core through geographic, value
chain and product adjacencies by sharing
customers, costs and capabilities.
The culture incorporated by Olam has made
sure that while management makes the core
decisions the teams at the lower level have
sufficient independence to access situations
and take charge.
Five typical roles in Olam
Branch manager: The Branch Manager is primarily responsible for operational efficiencyand control for the business of a product in thecountry.
Profit centre head: The PCH is overall
responsible for the bottom line of one or more products in a country.
Country head: The Country Head's primaryfocus is to be sensitive and responsive to thelocal market. He plays three vital roles: thesensor and interpreter of local opportunities andthreats, the builder of local resources andcapabilities and the contributor to globalstrategy for the businesses in his country.