TRADE MISSION REPORT Chinafiles.ctctcdn.com/781eeece401/1604d579-470b-457f-96ae-7b... · 2015-09-29 · China currently represents 1/5th of the world population and they have just

TRADE MISSION REPORT

China

August 22 – September 3rd, 2015

Participants:

Randall Fairman

Jack Zhao

Submitted to USDA FAS

9 September 2015 Return to table of contents

2 of 20 | P a g e Return to table of contents

CONTENTS Click on subject to go to that topic.

Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................................................. 3

Recommendations .................................................................................................................................................................. 4

2015 China Production Summary ........................................................................................................................................... 5

Trip Itinerary Overview ........................................................................................................................................................... 6

Datong regional visit ............................................................................................................................................................... 7

Northeast Heilongjiang Regional Visit .................................................................................................................................... 9

Sunwu County (25 August, 2015) ........................................................................................................................................ 9

Nenjiang Visit .................................................................................................................................................................... 11

Dayangshu Visit ................................................................................................................................................................. 12

North Heilongjiang Conclusions ........................................................................................................................................ 13

Jiamusi regional visit ............................................................................................................................................................. 14

China pulse import/export meeting ..................................................................................................................................... 15

Meeting Overview ............................................................................................................................................................. 15

Presenter Brian Clancey - Statpub .................................................................................................................................... 15

Presenter – US Dry Bean Council ...................................................................................................................................... 15

Presenter – Government policy ........................................................................................................................................ 16

Presenter LiuLi – Shanxi DRK ............................................................................................................................................. 17

Presenter LuoChengrong – Yunnan .................................................................................................................................. 17

Presenter Quyanwen – Dayangshu ................................................................................................................................... 18

Presenter Chenye – Xinjiang ............................................................................................................................................. 19

Zhang xiaoming – Heilongjiang ......................................................................................................................................... 19



EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Finding markets for US Dry Beans

Objective

Conduct research in China to examine market conditions and identify opportunities to fill worldwide orders with US Dry Beans based on 2015 production and demand in China.

Results

Light speckled kidney beans will not be adequate to

meet the demand this year. It is very likely that India,

Yemen and South Africa will all be forced to substitute

pinto beans for light speckled kidney beans in places

where they are not accustomed to doing so. This could

be a great opportunity for a marketing campaign.

Identifying Market Trends

Objective

Identify trends in short term and long term planting and production in China with a goal of assessing specific varieties which are likely to have greatest unmet worldwide demand next year and in the next five years.

Results

In the short term, light speckled kidney beans and lima

beans have a significant unmet need. In the long term,

corn in China is double the price of corn in the USA

which makes it very difficult for Chinese farmers to

grow beans instead of corn. Production overall in 2015

is less than half the production of 2014 but this could

all change with government policy modification.

Promoting Bean Consumption in China

Objective

China currently represents 1/5th of the world population

and they have just now started to gain an appetite for

beans. If Chinese people simply ate beans at 10% the

rate of Americans they would be a net importer of dry

beans.

Results

Our trade mission visited dozens of growers, processors and traders in China building good will and creating opportunities to encourage increased domestic bean consumption. Our trade mission found that there is an increasing appetite for white bean flour and other bean varieties in China. It seems that this might be a good time for the US Dry bean council to consider commissioning a study on how best to promote dry bean consumption in China.

Building relationships Objective

Develop relationships with key members of the dry

bean industry to allow for ongoing dialogue and

mutually beneficial initiatives.

Results

Our trade mission built new relationships and grew

other relationships in the China Dry Bean industry. As

always Chinese hospitality was a blessing to the

traveling delegates. The foundation for future

partnerships seems to be healthy.



RECOMMENDATIONS

Pinto Bean Marketing It is very clear that the worldwide supply of light speckled kidney beans will not be adequate to fill the worldwide demand this year. As you look at the price trends over the last few years it is abundantly clear that many of the worldwide players have become increasingly unwilling to pay a premium for light speckled kidney beans compared to pinto beans.

The Chinese traders told us that quality and price sensitivity are highest in Europe and India and much lower in South Africa and Yemen. We recommend a marketing campaign to the traditional buyers of light speckled kidney beans in India, South Africa and Yemen.

Domestic consumption This trip identified the fact that bean production and processing people tend to be operating in their own region and the only organized group of folks in the bean industry is the import/export consortium.

Earlier this year, the Chinese government declared the potato to be a “fourth main staple” in addition to rice, wheat and corn. The result has been a very highly organized campaign to increase domestic consumption of potatoes.

It occurs to us that it would clearly be in the Chinese Government’s best interest for their people to consume increased amounts of protein from beans in place of meat.

We recommend commissioning a study to find out how the “patriotic potato” movement got started in China.

The International Year of the Pulse might be a natural time for the government to start a “patriotic pulse” movement that would change the world.

Continued monitoring With market conditions changing quickly and

government policy potentially causing significant

market changes we recommend a monitoring

program.

We cannot recommend ourselves so we simply say

that it is a pleasure to serve the US Dry Bean

Council and we hope that the relationship will

continue into 2016.



2015 CHINA PRODUCTION SUMMARY

As you read the entirety of the report you will begin to realize that we are reporting things as they are told to us and as a

result there are many sets of conflicting information. In general we have handled the conflicting information as follows:

1.) When what we see with our eyes and hear from the farmers matches what we are told at the import and export

symposium then we just trust that information.

2.) When we get conflicting information we try to think about whether the person speaking with us might have a

motivation for a particularly high or low estimate.

a. Sometimes we conclude that the farmers who are simply farming a small patch of land do not have the

larger view.

b. Sometimes we conclude that the large scale import/export folks are trying to create an impression of

plenty or an impression of scarcity.

Dark Red Kidney

In 2014 the total production of DRK in China was at a

historic high of around 70,000 tons. The following

changes have occurred bringing the 2015 total

production to about 62,000 tons. With carryover stocks

at around 8,000 tons the total starting stock in 2015 is

approximately the same as 2014.

Shanxi reduced ~ 10,000 tons

South Heilongjiang reduced ~ 10,000 tons

Xinjiang increased ~ 8,000 tons

North Heilongjiang increased ~ 4,000 tons

Light Speckled Kidney

In 2014 the total production of light speckled kidney

was around 220,000 tons. Low planting has reduced

total planting this year to 45,000 tons. Carryover stock

is around 65,000 tons but with light speckled kidney

beans the older beans are not easily sold because of

loss of color.

Black Beans

Total production in 2014 was over 200,000 tons and less

than 100,000 tons has been sold. Production in 2015 is

around 50,000 tons which means that the starting

stocks in 2015 are around 150,000 tons.

White Beans

With the current low value for white beans there is a

growing demand in the Chinese marketplace for using

white bean flower in bakeries. Production last year was

very high but the carryover is not as strong because of

this domestic consumption. Production this year is

approximately 45,000 tons which is down from about

120,000 tons last year. Total production is as follows:

Baishake – 24,000 tons

Spanish – 9,000 tons

Navy – 8,000 tons

Japan – 4,000 tons

Lima Beans Domestic consumption of lima beans has grown

significantly to about 14,000 tons per year. This year

the total harvest is 21,000 tons so there will only be

about 7,000 tons available for export. About half of the

exportable quantity will be large size and about half will

be small size.

Purple Speckled Beans There was a slight decrease in purple speckled beans

compared to last year. Total production is about 17,000

tons.



TRIP ITINERARY OVERVIEW

Phase 1 - Datong Region

22 – 24 Aug 2015

We spent 3 days in the Datong region talking with

farmers and processors about their crop. We found

that overall weather conditions were slightly dry and

planting was slightly less than last year. This region is

primarily about dark red kidney (DRK) and we will give

more detailed observations in its own section.

Phase 2 – North Heilongjiang

25-27 Aug 2015

In North Heilongjiang the farmers tend to be organized

into cooperatives and so the bulk of our time was spent

visiting fields with cooperative leaders and talking about

their experience.

Overall we found DRK planting higher than last year and

all other bean varieties lower than last year.

Phase 3 – Jiamusi Region

28-30 Aug 2015

We spent a total of 3 days in this region doing field visits

and spending time with a cooperative manager.

Last year this region harvested more than 18,000 tons

of DRK. At planting, kidney bean prices were low so in

general this region planted adzuki beans extensively.

Phase 4 – China Dry Bean Expo

31 Aug to 2 Sep 2015

We presented the status of the North American crop on

behalf of the US Dry Bean Council.

We also gained perspective from Chinese traders about

the current status of the 2015 crop.

We also learned about some important new

government policies and considerations.

Datong Region



DATONG REGIONAL VISIT

Liang Cheng Regional Visit To the South and West of Hohhot is thoroughly mung

bean territory. As you drive toward the point above

labeled Liang Cheng you slowly approach a high

concentration of DRK.

Farmers indicated that this region has been

experiencing drier than normal weather toward the end

of the season and as a result much of the harvest is

happening a little bit earlier than they feel is optimal.

Liang Cheng Harvest Estimates

Liang Cheng is primarily a

DRK region with several

thousand tons of annual

production. The farmers

stated that they planted

about the same amount as

last year and production is

about 80% of what it was

last year when their weather

was better.

Tian Zhen Regional Visit The region around Tian Zhen appeared to have quite

ideal weather for beans this year. The beans were fully

developed and the farmers confirmed that this year has

had excellent bean weather. Farmers stated that in a

well planted field they can get a maximum of 26 CWT

per acre.

Crop Rotations

Tian Zhen is typical of many areas in China where beans

are grown. The combination of altitude and northern

latitude make the growing season too short for any

variety of corn to come to maturity. In this region they

said that the typical crop rotation is for potatoes one

year and DRK the next year. Cash considerations they

have were like this last year:

Income DRK gives same income at this indicated price.

Potato $562 USD per acre $21 per CWT

DRK $1,680 USD per acre $64 per CWT

Sunflower $1,200 USD per acre $46 per CWT

Based on these calculations it is not surprising that a lot

of people in this area often stretch their crop rotations

and push hard to plant as much DRK as they are able.



The farmer says they can “go to the city” and get some

“special sprays” that help them plant DRK for 3 years in

a row … but the yield is not as good.

An important fraction of kidney beans in China are

grown in marginal regions like this one where it is not

possible to produce corn, wheat and soy. These

specialized regions will likely continue to produce

kidney beans unless there is a very fundamental change

to the economics.

Equipment

This region is among the least mechanized regions in

China that we have observed. Typically each family will

have a donkey cart and regard their donkey as a

member of the family.

The harvest processing equipment is the same as that

which has been used for centuries around the world.

Partner visit

Nearby there is an advanced factory with electronic eye

sorting as well as machinery to remove the shell from

any type of bean and turn it into a flour.

It is fascinating to see a multimillion dollar operation

operating just a few miles from the ancient way of

doing things.

Datong Area Conclusions

50% of this region was hit by a drought that will result in

a slight decrease in production.

50% of this region experienced good weather.

Planting was consistent with 2014 planting levels.

Ultimately we estimate that DRK production in this

region will be 85% of the 2014 production levels

providing a total of 11,000 tons of DRK.



NORTHEAST HEILONGJIANG REGIONAL VISIT

Sunwu County (25 August, 2015) Sunwu county of Heilongjiang Province is very near the

Russian border. This region has a very active farmers

association that helps to provide seed and coordinate

the planting of farmers in the region. We had the

opportunity to visit a few regional bean processors

followed by good opportunity to visit fields and

interview the head of the local farmers association.

Sunwu processor visits

Selling all forms of kidney beans … DRK, Light speckled,

Black beans, Adzuki beans, White beans, Cranberry

beans, Purple Speckled beans … Call 13846590353

Black beans everywhere

What we found in every processor warehouse was large

stacks of unsold black beans with some white beans. As

we interviewed the local processors we found that

many of them have literally not sold one batch of black

beans this year.

One of the processors told us that the farmers are no

longer holding the beans in their homes but have sent

them to the processors but there is nobody to buy the

beans.

All varieties except DRK low harvest #’s

The processor guessed that this year in Sunwu county

farmers would harvest (relative to last year) 2% black

beans, 10% white beans, 40% light speckled beans and

250% dark red kidney beans. He told us it is simple

economics for the farmers based on current prices.

Although the DRK numbers are up significantly by

percentage, this region is not typically a strong DRK

region. The total tonnage of DRK is still less than 2,500

tons.



Sunwu Economics The leader of the farmer’s cooperative we visited

offered us some insight into the economics of decision

making for the farmers in 2015 for those in his region.

The following table summarizes the situation as he saw

it on that day for Sunwu County.

Sunwu DRK Looking at the economics of the decision making in

Sunwu county it was easy to understand why more of

the farmers chose DRK than the other kidney bean

varieties this year. The village leader said that DRK

planting more than doubled this year for a total of 2,500

tons. The village leader indicated that crop

development was good and the fields will be ready to

harvest in a few weeks.

Sunwu light speckled kidney and

black beans Chinese farmers are by and large very patient people

and if they have to wait a few years to get their money

they are okay with that. In the case of black beans,

farmers have been known to put their beans in their

root cellar for two years where it is nice and cool and

dark for up to 2 years waiting for the price to come

around. Currently there are over 100,000 tons of black

beans around China waiting for the price to come up.

This year the price was so low for light speckled kidney

beans that farmers wanted to do that but they were

nervous that the beans would lose their color and so

they went ahead and sold their light speckled kidney

beans at a very low price.

Now at harvest time the farmers have sold their light

speckled kidney beans from 2014 and they have a

meager 25% of last year’s harvest available this year.

Traders are very aggressively trying to buy up the light

speckled kidney beans but the farmers are holding out

to see what happens with the price. Farmers fear this

might be their only cash crop this year.

Yield

(ton/hectare)

Price

($/ton)

Revenue

(USD)dark red kidney 1.8 $938 $1,641light speckled kidney 2.1 $625 $1,313black bean 2.5 $495 $1,213white bean 2.6 $570 $1,482cranberry bean 2.0 $670 $1,307adzuki bean 1.4 $1,520 $2,052soy bean 2.3 $920 $2,070corn 9.0 $303 $2,728



Nenjiang Visit Continuing along our path above we drove to Nenjiang.

The field conditions throughout this region give

evidence of good to excellent weather this year. Fields

are evidently planted with less bean crop in 2015

compared to previous years.

Nenjiang is a region with large fields that are highly

organized and mechanized. This region follows roughly

the same economics as nearby Sunwu county described

above but the land is a bit more fertile and a bit more

expensive in terms of rent.

Nenjiang DRK DRK planted area increased in Nenjiang because it was

the most economically viable of the bean varieties

suitable for this area. Total DRK production in this

region went from about 800 tons to about 1,800 tons.

Trade partner visit In a fortuitous turn of events our bus broke down

between Sunwu county and Nenjiang and we were able

to call our driver from a nearby city to pick us up. It

turned out that there were two other bean industry

people on the bus with us and so we all traveled

together from Sunwu to Nenjiang.

This trader and local processing plant owner talked with

us about the changing face of bean planting in this

region.

China Speckled Bean Markets One interesting point that was found was the overall

flow of speckled kidney beans from China. Overall

traders have found the tolerance for quality problems

to go down as you proceed down this list.

1. Best light speckled beans go to Europe

2. Next best light speckled go to India

3. Next best light speckled go to South Africa

4. Next best light speckled go to Yemen

5. Cranberry beans go to Pakistan

Nenjiang market situation Last year the region around Nenjiang produced well

over 250,000 tons of beans in total. The three major

contributors to that total were black, white and

speckled beans. This year the black beans were not

grown and the white beans only had about 10% of the

previous year’s crop. Speckled beans went down by

about 50% with a total crop by his estimate of 40,000

tons. This year total production in this region is less

than 80,000 tons because international market prices

for beans simply cannot compete with the price of corn

in China. (Corn in China currently is priced at about

double the internationally available corn price.)



Dayangshu Visit Continuing along our path above we drove to

Dayangshu where we met with another local business

leader from the bean industry.

Late developing fields

The fields in this region seemed to be quite a long ways

from maturity. (Later on we found out that an early

season hail required extensive replanting. The millet

was destroyed and it was too late to plant anything else

so they planted kidney beans in late June.)

Dayangshu harvest assessment The farmers and leaders in this region indicate that total

planting in 2015 is about 40% of the total planting in

2014. In this region the percentages of various beans

were held mostly steady from the previous year.

The harvest estimates for this region are:

20,000 tons black beans

25,000 tons white beans

25,000 tons light speckled kidney beans

10,000 tons purple speckled

No DRK planted

Nehe and Yian Traditionally the area around Qiqihar has had extensive

plantings of various bean varieties with particular

emphasis on white, black and speckled beans.

In the past, this region has been flooded with highly

mechanized harvesting equipment at this time of year

and no such equipment existed this year.

In the past we have seen extensive bean processing

preparations at this facility and this year there is no

activity at all.

Interviews with farmers and processors indicate that

this region produced 215,000 tons last year in black,

white and speckled beans and this year the total is less

than 10,000 tons.



North Heilongjiang Conclusions

3 roads

North Heilongjiang produced around 510,000 tons of dry beans in 2014 and the conclusions we were finding were so

different than last year that we found ourselves struggling with a way to make sense of the information. We decided to

quantify our findings by breaking the road into what we thought were “3 pieces” that somehow each represent one

third of the Northern Heilongjiang crop. The data in the following chart does not exactly line up with previous

observations because there is a subjective “gut feel” added based on the sum total of observations.

Numerical estimates

Level of confidence

Subjectively, we feel rather confident that harvest will be a lot less because of less planting of all varieties.

Subjectively, we feel confident that overall the crop looks good and yield will be good.

Numerically, it is very difficult to quantify this amount of change based on our work. These numbers are what we will

use to sort of cross check what we hear at the dry bean import and export exposition but it is difficult to put a

confidence interval on this data.

Variety

Road 1

(tons)

Road 2

(tons)

Road 3

(tons)

North

Heilongjiang

black bean 8,000 19,000 1,000 28,000

white bean 15,000 28,000 2,000 45,000

light speckled kidney bean 25,000 15,000 3,000 43,000

cranberry bean 5,000 8,000 500 13,500

dark red kidney bean 1,500 5,000 0 6,500

purple speckled bean 3,000 16,000 0 19,000

Percent last year's crop 38% 61% 4% 34%



JIAMUSI REGIONAL VISIT

Baoqing County The most important bean production region of Jiamusi

is the area around Baoqing. This region has extremely

fertile soil and excellent growing conditions with plenty

of rain. This region typically grows wheat, corn and soy

with other crops mixed in.

Some of the land in this region is more hilly and not very

conducive to large scale mechanized farming. Each year

the farmers take these highly fertile lands that are not

conducive to mechanized farming and plant whatever

crop seems to be most profitable in that year.

In 2013, the farmers in this region produced less than

11,000 tons of dark red kidney beans with excellent

profit because of the 2013 price hikes. In response to

this the farmers produced over 20,000 tons of DRK in

2014. We saw during our planting intentions and crop

progress research that planting was less this year but

we came to the region to make our best guess about

crop progress and total production.

2015 Crop Condition Thus far the crop

appears to be

progressing well.

This region of China

typically will

harvest later than

other regions so

they are still a

month away from

their normal early

harvest. Rains

appear to be

adequate and the

crop is developing

well.

Baoqing Farming Economics The farmers in Baoqing typically plant 3 hectare of crops

for each member of their family. This is the “allotment”

that they will not have to pay rent for. If they want to

plant more than this then they must rent the land from

somebody else who is not using their allotment.

The farmers in this region anticipate revenue from their

land as indicated in this table this year. They feel

confident that if they hold their produce they can

eventually get the prices indicated above and are likely

to hold out for those prices unless something changes.

2015 Jiamusi Production Based on interviews with farmers and producers in this

region as well as the processor that we visit each time

we come it appears that DRK production in this region

has gone down from about 20,000 tons in 2014 to

about 11,000 tons in 2015. The only other meaningful

bean production in this region in 2015 was adzuki

beans.

Yield

(ton/hectare)

Price

($/ton)

Revenue

(USD)

dark red kidney 1.9 $1,141 $1,641

adzuki bean 2.5 $1,141 $2,052

corn 10.0 $344 $2,728



CHINA PULSE IMPORT/EXPORT MEETING

Meeting Overview

There were a number of presentations from

international leaders in the pulse industry as well as

leaders from the China pulse industry. Here I will give

some highlights from a few specific presentations.

Presenter Brian Clancey - Statpub The main focus of Brian’s presentation was related to

the fact that major worldwide commodity prices are

very low and bean prices have not yet dropped as far as

the other commodities. This fact means that bean

acreage is higher.

One interesting slide that Brian posted showed Brazilian

production plus carry-in more than 300,000 tons below

the 5 year average. This could be a market opportunity.

Presenter – US Dry Bean Council This year our company had the privilege of presenting

on behalf of the US Dry Bean Council.

In general the presentation given showed an increase in

production over the last 5 years. This included an

increase in production in 2015 compared with 2014.

One point of interest to many was this plot which shows

how the price of corn has decreased in the west but not

in China. This helped these bean industry folks

understand why it is harder for them to compete with

corn for acreage.

This actually fit in nicely with much of what Brian

Clancey had presented with respect to high pulse

returns compared to other commodities and helped the

Chinese businessmen to understand the differences.



Presenter – Government policy On the second day there was an unplanned

presentation from a university professor. We had the

impression that his presentation was likely a response

to concerns being expressed by the import/export

community.

The first half of his presentation focused on the recent

decreasing trends in bean exports from China. He

noted that from 2004 to 2012 there was a gradual

increase but things have radically decreased over the

following two years. He presented the following graphs

depicting these trends.

He explained that this is despite increasing prices for

beans over those years and he stated that he recognizes

that this is in part a result of government grain policy.

He referenced new policy that is being put into place by

the Chinese Government that will favor growing more

beans in China starting in 2016.

More farmlands for beans in 2016 from corn reduction

in China

Resource：http://www.nbd.com.cn/articles/2015-09-

01/943175.html

Source: nbd.com.cn

Date: Sept 1, 2015

A recent article posted online talks about that China will

plant less corn next year and more farmlands maybe

available for beans. Elements of interest from this

article include:

China Agro Department sets up the goal that

the corn planting acreage will reduce over

666,667 ha in 2016.

The targeted provinces are mainly the 4

provinces in the northeast of China, including

Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, and Inner

Mongolia.

More farmlands from corn reduction will be

planted with grains and pulses.

About 1/3 of corns in China will be adjusted and

grouped to corns for feed.

For an automated online translation of this Chinese

Article click the following link:

http://fanyi.baidu.com/transpage?query=http%3A%2F

%2Fwww.nbd.com.cn%2Farticles%2F2015-09-

01%2F943175.html%20&from=zh&to=en&source=url&r

ender=1

http://www.nbd.com.cn/articles/2015-09-01/943175.html

http://www.nbd.com.cn/articles/2015-09-01/943175.html

http://fanyi.baidu.com/transpage?query=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nbd.com.cn%2Farticles%2F2015-09-01%2F943175.html%20&from=zh&to=en&source=url&render=1






Presenter LiuLi – Shanxi DRK Liuli informed us that there was a significant drought in

Shanxi this year and this drought was most extreme in

the South of the province and less extreme in the North.

He indicated that many of the fields will produce very

little beans this year.

Dry fields in Shanxi Province

Liuli informed us that there was a lot less planting of

DRK this year due to crop rotations and that the end

result was that farmers planted other things. Liuli’s

estimate is that Shanxi DRK production is likely to be

about 25,000 tons this year … down from 35,000 tons

last year.

At the end of his speech he gave the gathered crowd

some food for thought. He pointed out that in winter of

2013 the price of DRK went so high that it caused all

kinds of losses for European companies. He made the

point that this was a temporary win for China but in the

long run now China has lost a market share in Europe

that they may never get back. On some level the trust is

broken in the relationship and the European markets

simply will not allow themselves to rely on China for

their beans. The European market is willing to purchase

China beans if they are cheaper and they have need but

they will not rely on China DRK.

This year the light speckled kidney beans appear to be

short. If China runs up the price this year as they did in

2013 then China might just find out that people could

lose the will to rely on China for their light speckled

kidney beans.

Presenter LuoChengrong – Yunnan Yunnan Province is mainly a region focused on Lima

beans.

Tobacco and medicine crowding out Lima

Luochengrong pointed out that there have been some

advances in tobacco growing technology that now

allows it to be grown in much higher land where lima

beans have historically done well. As a result planting is

down.

Poland now important in Lima beans

Poland is now taking much market share in Russia and

South Africa. Poland produces

Domestic consumption significant

Last year when production was at 28,000 tons there

was 50% domestic consumption. Now it seems that

with reduced total production that the domestic

demand is likely to consume 60% or more.

Prices for small size beans likely soft

Poland has a lot of alternatives when it comes to the

smaller beans and as a result the supply is large. The

prices are likely to come down to 1,200 Euros per ton.

Prices for large size beans likely strong

Poland cannot compete on the large size beans so the

price is likely to stay strong at 3,000 Euros per ton.

Total Lima Bean Production

Small size = 17,000 tons

Large size = 4,000 tons

LRK disappearing

It is very difficult for the LRK to compete with medicinal

herbs and tobacco for land space and as a result

production is extremely low.



Presenter Quyanwen – Dayangshu Quyanwen did an excellent job of giving us a brief

history of the weather conditions in Dayangshu in 2015.

In the middle of June there was a weather disaster that

resulted in a loss of significant millet crop. Based on the

short growing time remaining kidney beans were the

only alternative so there was a significant increase in

the overall bean planting following the hail disaster.

The following diagram represents the information presented about 3 year production trends in dayangshu in graphical

format. It is good to remember that 2013 was a flood ravaged year and 2014 was a “typical” planting and harvest year.

The decreases in production from 2014 to 2015 represents a fundamental shift in the confidence of the farmers in their

ability to sell dry beans.

Dayangshu totals

In general, the numbers presented for Dayangshu seem

to represent the most organized and well thought out

numbers presented at this meeting.

The totals for all beans harvested in Dayangshu for the

last 3 years are as follows:

2013 – 133,000 tons

2014 – 210,000 tons

2015 – 91,000 tons

China dry bean broader implications

The trends in this region are a very important part of

the total China market. Looking over the last few

years … this region accounts for around 1/3 of the total

exports of all white and colored beans with the

exception of DRK.

Domestic consumption

One of the points that was brought out was that the

black beans continue to sit in storage because there is

no domestic consumption. The white beans are actually

selling domestically for extensive use in flour for

Chinese bakeries.

This was one of several presentations where the

increasing role of China domestic consumption was

expressed in terms of being a threat to the dry bean

import/export business sector.

0 MT5,000 MT

10,000 MT15,000 MT20,000 MT25,000 MT30,000 MT35,000 MT40,000 MT45,000 MT50,000 MT

Dayangashu 3 year production totals

2013 2014 2015



Presenter Chenye – Xinjiang

Xinjiang Cranberry Beans

Historically the most important beans from Xinjiang

have been the high quality cranberry beans shipped to

Turkey. Prices have declined this year due to the

international bean situation but prices did not change in

time to change farmer planting behavior. Overall, 2015

planting and production is consistent with 2014 planting

and production.

Organized communities

Mr Chenye informed the gathered community that in

2015 there was increasing experimentation with some

organized communities (called “bingtuan”) who have

begun to grow Dark Red Kidney beans. These organized

communities have the capacity to quickly ramp up

production of agricultural products because they make

decisions as a group.

Dark Red kidney

This slide indicates that the organized communities will

produce a total of 10,000 to 15,000 tons of DRK in 2015.

We interviewed Liuli and others after the presentation

and everyone agrees that the increase in production of

DRK in 2015 over 2014 is at least 8,000 tons. In the

context of worldwide production numbers, this amount

of production is very significant. 8,000 tons would

represent more than 5% of the worldwide total of DRL

available for cost based on trade or export.The

“bingtuan” organized communities in 2015 have

increased production from less than 2,000 tons in 2014

to more than 10,000 tons of DRK in 2015.

Zhang xiaoming – Heilongjiang

Overview

Zhang xiaoming started off by telling us that his

conclusions were developed by driving around talking

to people and looking at fields for the last week.

Light speckled kidney beans

Zhang mentioned that the light speckled kidney beans

are very controversial right now because there are so

many people speculating that there will not be enough

to supply the world demand. He said these are his

estimates and it is important to remember that the

“carryover” stock for light speckled beans do not have

good quality because the pattern becomes dull.

Black beans

Zhang said for black beans that China is in a good

position this year when you consider the combination

of their carryover stock and their new harvest.

Dark red kidney beans

He expressed low confidence in his Dark Red Kidney

Estimate for Heilongjiang.

White beans

Zhang specified the following information about this

years’ white bean crop:

Baishake ~30,000 tons

Japanese white ~5,000 tons

Navy beans ~13,000 tons

Zhang also indicated that white beans are being

increasingly consumed in the Chinese baking industry.

He is not sure of the carryover of white beans but does

believe that there are 12,000 tons of navy beans being

carried over.

light

speck

black

beans DRK Cran White

2014 carryover 65,000 100,000 20,000

2015 harvest 45,000 40,000 15,000 27,000 48,000

2015 starting stock 110,000 140,000 27,000



TRADE MISSION REPORT

China

August 22 – September 3rd, 2015

Participants:

Randall Fairman

Jack Zhao

Submitted to USDA FAS

TRADE MISSION REPORT Chinafiles.ctctcdn.com/781eeece401/1604d579-470b-457f-96ae-7b... · 2015-09-29 · China currently represents 1/5th of the world population and they have just

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