Toyota’s Technology Roadmap to Meet the 2017-2025 CAFE Standards Toyota’s Technology Roadmap to Meet the 2017-2025 CAFE Standards NRC Presentation RE: Assessment of Technologies for Improving Fuel Economy of Light-Duty Vehicles – Phase 2 December 3 rd 2012
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Toyota’s Technology Roadmap to Meet the 2017-2025 CAFE Standards
Toyota’s Technology Roadmap to Meet the 2017-2025 CAFE Standards
NRC Presentation
RE: Assessment of Technologies for Improving Fuel Economy of Light-Duty Vehicles – Phase 2
December 3rd 2012
2
Introduction
I. Technical Roadmap through 2021MY
• Pathways to Improve Fuel Efficiency
• 2017-2021MY Compliance Approach
• Summarize Compliance Prospects
II. Prospects beyond 2021MY
• ICE Improvements
• HV Expansion
• Challenges
Summary
Outline
3
• Toyota appreciates the opportunity to provide the following
technology perspective with regards to the 2017-2025MY
GHG/Fuel Economy Standards.
• In recognition of the previous work conducted by NRC, we
trust that the information provided today will assist NRC in
reaching a reasonable conclusion and making informed
recommendations in the final report.
• Toyota would welcome the opportunity to have further
dialogue with NRC members as a follow-up to the information
3. Hybridization: Expand application and improve technology
4. Mass Reduction
5. Improvements in Aerodynamics/Rolling Resistance
6. ATV Introducing
8ICE & Drivetrain Technologies
▼ Approach is to improve ICE efficiency in concert with an optimum drivetrain configuration that will enable frequent
operation in the engine’s highly efficient area.
▼ Approach is to improve ICE efficiency in concert with an optimum drivetrain configuration that will enable frequent
operation in the engine’s highly efficient area.
9ICE Improvement Concept
▼ Two distinct approaches for improving the thermal efficiency.▼ Two distinct approaches for improving the thermal efficiency.
Increase CR and/or Lean A/F
Downside: Reduced Peak Power Downside: Increased Knocking Risk
Reduce Energy Losses (friction, heat, etc.)
E.g. Atkinson Cycle E.g. Boosting & Downsizing
10ICE Improvement Concept
Small class conventional engine already operates in high efficiency zone,
so the effect of TDS (expanding efficiency zone) is smaller than large class.
Ne(rpm)(rpm)(rpm)(rpm)
TR
Q(( ((N
m)) ))
Ne(rpm)(rpm)(rpm)(rpm)
TR
Q(( ((N
m)) ))
Operating areaOperating area
High efficiency
Zone (original)
High efficiency
Zone (TDS)
High efficiency
Zone (TDS)
Small engine displacement
Large engine displacement
High efficiency
Zone (original)
Small size car Large size car
Downsizing effect
11ICE Improvement Concept
Ne(rpm)(rpm)(rpm)(rpm)
TR
Q(( ((N
m)) ))
Operating area
High efficiency
Zone (original)
Small engine displacement
Small size car
Improve thermal efficiency of ICE
(Atkinson)
Adapt CVT / THS Synergy for drivetrain application
Increasing maximum thermal efficiency combined with CVT or THS offers
the best approach for small car applications.
Since peak efficiency occurs at lower speed and high torque operation, it is beneficial for CVT or synergy w/THS type application
12ICE Improvement Concept
Ne(rpm)(rpm)(rpm)(rpm)
TR
Q(( ((N
m)) ))
Operating area
High efficiency
Zone (TDS)
Large engine displacement
High efficiency
Zone (original)
Large size car
Incorporate Downsizing
Adapting multi speed A/T, drivetrain enables better use of middle torque area.
Broadening high thermal efficiency area combined with A/T, DCT, offers the
best approach for large size car applications.
Expanding the usable, middle torque area of the ICE can benefit these types of drivetrain applications .
13ICE Technology Penetration
2016MY 2021MY
EPA estimation
Toyota estimation
GDI
Others
Others
GDI
TDS TDS(+GDI)
GDI
TDS(+GDI)
Others
Others
▼ Toyota balance of GDI, TDS and other technologies is predicated on development resources, cost, and required
compliance contribution.
14Drive-train Technology Penetration
2016MY 2021MY
EPA estimation
Toyota estimation
others
6 A/T
DCT
others 6 A/T
8 A/T
DCT
others
6 A/T
8 A/T
CVT
6 A/T
8 A/T
CVT
▼ Rationale for advanced A/T is that performance is comparable to that of DCT while considerable development and manufacturing experience currently exists with this technology.
▼ Rationale for advanced A/T is that performance is comparable to that of DCT while considerable development and manufacturing experience currently exists with this technology.
((((Fuel consumption without recovery controlFuel consumption without recovery controlFuel consumption without recovery controlFuel consumption without recovery control))))
about 2% improvementabout 2% improvementabout 2% improvementabout 2% improvement
by Sulfur :30→10ppmby Sulfur :30→10ppmby Sulfur :30→10ppmby Sulfur :30→10ppm
Fuel consum
ption
Fuel consum
ption
Fuel consum
ption
Fuel consum
ption
degrading ratio
degrading ratio
degrading ratio
degrading ratio (%
)(%
)(%
)(%
)
Impacts on Fuel Consumption with Sulfur Contents
▼ Lean Burn Engine incurs a fuel penalty for SOx control.
▼ Reducing sulfur from 30 ppm to 10 ppm improves fuel consumption about 2% by lessening need for recovery control.
▼ Lean Burn Engine incurs a fuel penalty for SOx control.
▼ Reducing sulfur from 30 ppm to 10 ppm improves fuel consumption about 2% by lessening need for recovery control.
Lean burn engine needs cyclical
SOx, which is stored at catalyst,
and reduction strategy will incur
a fuel penalty.
Ultra low sulfur gasoline fuel
allows a decrease in fuel penalty
because of the reduced SOx
storage.
32Expand HybridizationC
O2
(g
/km
)
Good
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 Year
20
EV、FCV
HV
PHV
Further Expansion of Hybridization
• Continuous ICE development to increase thermal efficiency
• Continuous cost reduction to secure market acceptance
• Continuous ICE development to increase thermal efficiency
• Continuous cost reduction to secure market acceptance
Mid-size Sedan
ICE
Required 4.5 percent FE improvement per year
33Prospects beyond 2021MY - Challenges
Category Approaches Challenge
ICE
Improvements
• High Compression
Ratio
• Lean Burn
� Higher Octane
gasoline is needed
� Low Sulfur (10ppm)
fuel is required
HV Expansion • Additional models
• System for Truck
application
� Fuel Price
� Utility requirements
PHV
Development
• Battery
Improvements
• Range
� Technology
� Infrastructure
accessibility
34Post 2021MY Challenges – Methodology
Credit balance and ability to comply must be monitored in addition to technology
improvement and consumer acceptance.
▼ 2016 MY baseline fleet average less than 35.5 mpg standard. Compliance achieved with credits increasingly consumed in year
generated.
▼ 2016 MY baseline fleet average less than 35.5 mpg standard. Compliance achieved with credits increasingly consumed in year
generated. General Industry Issue
35
▼ Smaller vehicles face higher technology cost up in price sensitive market segment.
▼ Smaller vehicles face higher technology cost up in price sensitive market segment.
FE savings meaningless to consumers if can’t afford purchase price. Economic Payback = affordability, and additional feasibility metrics should be considered.
Post 2021MY Challenges – Methodology
36
▼ Standards set 13 years into future require assumptions critical to technology deployment and compliance with standards.
▼ Standards set 13 years into future require assumptions critical to technology deployment and compliance with standards.
Agency assumptions must be periodically reviewed and feasibility of standards
reconsidered based on new information.
• Preference
• Affordability
• Attitude/Knowledge
• Acceptance of Technologies
• Investment payback
Vehicle Technology
Consumers
Fuels
Economic ConditionsGovernment Policies
• Cost/benefit improvements
• Deployment rates
• Fleet sales mix
• Flexibilities
• Incentives
• Other regulations (safety, fuels, etc.)
• State mandates
• GDP
• Unemployment
• Income levels
• Health of Auto Industry
• Price
• Availability
• Quality/Specs
• Infrastructure
Examples of Uncertainty
Post 2021MY Challenges – Methodology
37
Request
• 10 ppm sulfur and 95 RON octane are necessary for TDS
pathway
• Affordability must be considered in addition to economic
payback and cost/benefit when determining appropriate
standard level
• Agency projections based on uncertain assumptions
(technology cost, performance, fuel price, etc.)
necessitate mid-term review
• More information will become available after NRC report
is published, therefore need additional periodic review
before end of mid-term review
38
Summary
Toyota’s Technology Roadmap to meet 2021MY CAFE standards incorporates ICE improvements, HV expansion, and Drive-train as priority deployment technologies.
Toyota differs from EPA’s technology assessment in the following areas:
• Toyota does not see adoption of TDS as EPA projects for 2021• Toyota differs on drivetrain application from EPA’s projections• Toyota views strong hybrid application will need to be increased
beyond what EPA has estimated for 2021
Beyond 2021MY, prospects to meet compliance goals are difficult to predict with confidence but fuel quality/specifications, technology cost, and market acceptance present major challenges to achieving these standards.