APPENDIX 2 PD-040-16 DRAFT October 13 2016 Town of Milton EMPLOYMENT LAND NEEDS ASSESSMENT STUDY PHASE 2 ANALYSES AND RECOMMENDATIONS REPORT File # 11165 B Prepared by: MacNaughton Hermsen Britton Clarkson Planning Limited (MHBC) 901 Guelph Line Burlington, ON L7R 3N8 T: 416 518 8394 | F: 905 761 5589 With Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 2000 Argentia Rd #101, Mississauga, ON L5N 1V9 T: 905 272 3600
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APPENDIX 2 PD-040-16
DRAFT October 13 2016
Town of Milton
EMPLOYMENT LAND NEEDS ASSESSMENT STUDY PHASE 2 ANALYSES AND RECOMMENDATIONS REPORT
APPENDIX B - ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL CONVERSION SITES
LIST OF FIGURES: Figure 2-1: Developed and Vacant Designated Employment Lands in Milton
Figure 2-2: Town of Milton Derry Green Corporate Business Park Land Use Plan
Figure 2-3: Town of Milton Existing, Planned and Future Strategic Employment Areas
Figure 2-4: Milton’s Employment Areas Analysis
Figure 2-5: Physical Attributes of Employment Areas Required to Attract Target Employment Sectors
Figure 3-1: Town of Milton’s Share of Halton Region Employment Base, 2011 to 2041
Figure 3-2: Town of Milton Employment Forecast – Reference vs. Alternative Scenario
Figure 3-3: Employment Growth by Sector – Reference vs. Alternative Forecast
Figure 3-4: Town of Milton Employment Forecast, 2016 to 2041
Figure 3-5: Town of Milton Employment Forecast by Major Sector, 2016 to 2041
Figure 3-6: Town of Milton Employment Forecast Incremental Growth, 2016 to 2041
Figure 3-7: Town of Milton Forecast Employment Growth by Sector, 2016 to 2041
Figure 3-8: Town of Milton Proportion of 2016 to 2041 Employment Growth on Employment Lands by Sector
Figure 3-9: Town of Milton Forecast Employment Growth on Employment Lands, 2016 to 2041
Figure 3-10: Town of Milton Target Employment Density
Figure 3-11: Town of Milton Forecast Employment Land Demand, 2016 to 2041
Figure 3-12: Town of Milton Employment Land Need to 2041 based on Designated Employment Land Supply
Figure 3-13: Town of Milton Employment Land Need to 2041 based on Designated and Planned Growth Areas Employment Land Supply
Figure 3-14: Town of Milton Employment Land Needs, 2016 to 2041
Figure 5-1: Estimated Area of Existing and Designated Employment Areas in Milton
Figure 5-2: Observed Land Uses in Existing and Planned Employment Areas
Figure 6-1: Milton Employment Total Employment, Activity Rate between 1996 and 2015
DRAFT Town of Milton Employment Land Needs Assessment Study
Phase 2 Analyses And Recommendations Report 4
1.0 INTRODUCTION
In April of 2015, the Town of Milton (“Town”) Council directed Town staff to undertake a further study of
its employment planning framework and employment land needs to the year 2041. Early in 2013, the
Town had commenced a Municipal Comprehensive Review (“MCR”) to address the Town’s employment
and commercial land needs to 2031. The MCR identified concerns related to the pattern of land
consumption which the Town of Milton has experienced. MHBC and Watson & Associates were jointly
retained to undertake an additional study related to planning for the future employment lands. The
further study of the Town’s employment lands is intended to form the basis of a comprehensive strategy
to guide the designation and development of urban employment lands to 2041. In particular, the study is
to address how the Town should plan for employment lands at densities to meet its local objectives and
inform Regional policies.
STUDY PURPOSE
The purpose of the Employment Land Needs Assessment is to confirm Milton’s employment land needs,
provide information on trends and the implications for Milton’s employment land supply and demand,
analyze the study findings and recommend supporting policies and direction for employment land
development. The recommended policies are intended to ensure the future planning goals of the Town
and the Region are implemented. They also recognize the market forces influencing land needs and
reinforce the physical and urban context of the Town, while respecting the overarching policy framework.
STUDY PROCESS
The Employment Land Needs Study was commenced in August of 2015. The Phase 1 Report was
presented to Council on January 25, 2016. The Phase 1 report included a detailed assessment of the local,
regional, Provincial and broader employment and economic context. The Phase 1 report also provided
an assessment of the land use policy framework within which employment lands are planned, and
reviewed relevant research, factors and influences on employment land planning and development. Best
practices in employment land use planning and policies were also considered during the first phase of the
study.
In addition to the background research completed in Phase 1, the Town hosted an expert panel session
to discuss trends, influences and factors affecting employment land planning in Ontario and specifically
in Milton. The panel included a range of professionals engaged in employment land use development
who offered a range of perspectives and opinions on the challenges and issues related to employment
land use planning and development for Milton. A number of interviews were also carried out with key
DRAFT Town of Milton Employment Land Needs Assessment Study
Phase 2 Analyses And Recommendations Report 5
stakeholders who are directly engaged in the development of employment land in the Town. Additional
input was also received through public comments.
This Phase 2 report provides an analysis of the Phase 1 findings as well as an assessment of the Town’s current employment land supply and demand. The Phase 2 report also provides projections for employment growth, considers areas for employment intensification and assesses potential conversion sites (employment lands proposed to be considered for conversion to non-employment land uses). The Phase 2 report concludes with responses to a number of questions raised through the Phase 1 process, as well as a number of recommendations for consideration related to land use policies and directions to meet the Town’s long-term objectives for its employment lands.
STUDY PRINCIPLES
A set of principles were developed with the initial launch of the study. These principles are derived from
the key messages conveyed in the initial MCR work as well as in the list of issues and questions to be
addressed through the study. These principles have been considered throughout the study and upheld
with the recommended strategy to respond to the employment land needs and planning in Milton.
1. The Study will respect employment land policies in Provincial and Regional Plans thereby
providing policy predictability related to the supply of serviced employment lands and the uses
that are permitted within them.
2. The Study will determine the supply of serviced and designated employment lands to facilitate
short-term, medium-term and long-term economic growth.
3. The Study will provide specific direction to maximize the competitiveness of the Town’s
employment lands and promote the growth, retention and expansion of existing businesses to
achieve a diverse mix of jobs by employment sector.
4. The Study will encourage a balanced residential/non-residential tax ratio and employment
activity rate (ratio of jobs to population) over the long-term planning horizon.
5. The Study will encourage innovative businesses and employers located at the urban centre and
strategic employment areas.
6. The Study will support high quality and environmentally responsible development of
employment lands.
7. The Study will promote vibrant employment areas and corridors that provide a diverse range of
employment uses as well as an appropriate range of employment supportive uses that enhance
the attractiveness and functionality of the Town’s employment areas.
8. The Study recognizes the need to maximize land utilization/density on employment lands,
including promoting intensification, while accommodating land expansive employment uses
where appropriate.
9. The Study will provide direction with respect to the protection of strategic employment lands
beyond a 20-year planning horizon.
DRAFT Town of Milton Employment Land Needs Assessment Study
Phase 2 Analyses And Recommendations Report 6
1.1 SUMMARY OF PHASE 1 FINDINGS
Phase 1 of the study focused on the current market context for Milton’s employment lands and trends at
the Provincial, Regional and local level. The first phase also identified Milton’s employment land profile
including recent non-residential development trends, the existing vacant land supply and factors
influencing regional competitiveness. The Phase 1 findings provided an overview of the current planning
policy framework and municipal practices related to employment land planning. A summary of the key
findings from the Phase 1 study are set out in this section of the report.
PROVINCIAL AND REGIONAL MARKET CONTEXT
In examining Milton’s employment lands it was essential to understand the broader influences and
factors that affect the regional economy as a whole. Some of the key findings related to the Provincial
and The Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (G.T.H.A.) economic context included:
a) The expected continued shift in the provincial economy to an increasingly serviced-based
economy driven by strong growth in “knowledge-based” sectors.
b) The diverse and highly competitive G.T.H.A. economy has fueled a steady level of employment
growth over the past decade. Despite the global economic slowdown, G.T.H.A. employment
levels have increased in almost all major sectors of the service sector economy since 2006.
c) The G.T.H.A. has experienced significant employment growth in the goods movement sector
over the past decade comprised of transportation/ warehousing and wholesale trade.
d) Since bottoming out in 2010, industrial development activity has been steadily rebounding with
2014 activity totalling 5.3 million sq.ft. Over the 2006 to 2014 period, Halton Region accounted
for 21%, of the G.T.H.A.’s new industrial development.
e) Over the past five years, industrial development in the G.T.H.A. has been oriented to large-
scale stand-alone industrial buildings housing wholesale trade, transportation/ warehousing as
well as multi-tenant industrial condominiums, accommodating a range of industrial and non-
industrial uses.
f) With respect to the office market, the G.T.H.A. contains 198 million sq.ft. of office space. Of
this total, Halton Region’s office space inventory of 9.8 million sq.ft. represents approximately
5% of the G.T.H.A. total. Demand for office space within employment areas is increasingly
single tenant and integrated with multi-purpose facilities (e.g. R&D, training centres, wholesale
trade) often in campus-type settings and there are growing opportunities for office
development within innovation districts located on employment lands which have direct
synergies with knowledge-based clusters.
DRAFT Town of Milton Employment Land Needs Assessment Study
Phase 2 Analyses And Recommendations Report 7
HALTON REGION AND LOCAL CONTEXT
Halton Region continues to experience significant growth in population and employment. The amount,
type and location of recent employment growth have strongly influenced the built form of development
on employment lands and future employment needs by local municipalities within Halton. Recent
employment trends in Halton Region include the following.
a. Developed employment lands in Halton Region total 3,377 net ha, approximately 11% of the G.T.H.A. total. The majority of the Region’s developed employment lands (72% of developed land area) are located in South Halton, primarily along the Q.E.W. corridor within the City of Burlington and the Town of Oakville.
b. Over the past decade, employment lands have been shifting from more mature municipalities such as Mississauga, Richmond Hill, Markham, and Burlington to outer edges of the G.T.H.A., such as Milton and Caledon, as well as the Greater Golden Horseshoe (G.G.H.) “Outer-Ring”. Employment land absorption levels in Halton Region have averaged approximately 48 net ha per year over the past decade representing approximately 19% of total employment lands absorption within the G.T.H.A. over this time period.
c. Key sub-sectors which have been accommodated on recently absorbed employment lands include professional, scientific and technical services, manufacturing, transportation and warehousing, management of companies and enterprises and wholesale trade.
d. Average employment density levels on employment lands across many G.T.H.A. municipalities have fallen in recent years. The average employment density on employment lands in Halton Region is 30 jobs per net ha which is lower than in Peel or York Region. In Milton, overall employment density on employment lands averages 17 jobs per net ha and is driven primarily by the significant development activity in large-scale warehousing and distribution/logistics to serve the goods movement sector.
EMERGING TRENDS IN EMPLOYMENT LAND DEVELOPMENT
While many existing greenfield employment developments continue to be planned for land-intensive
expansive industrial uses, there is a trend towards planning for employment areas in a way that
maximizes the use of land and infrastructure. This trend provides for economic clustering at a more dense
scale than traditional suburban business parks or industrial areas which includes the emergence of
employment communities and innovation districts.
Innovation districts have emerged as a new way to promote knowledge-based economic development
and offer a unique potential to spur productive, inclusive and sustainable economic development. They
are planned to optimize their economic, physical and networking assets.
Intensifying existing employment areas is also an efficient way to increase the density of existing
employment areas. Successful intensification of existing employment areas reinforces the existing
clusters by facilitating the growth and evolution of existing businesses. Promoting the introduction of
complementary accessory uses can allow existing employment areas to operate as a more complete and
connected employment community. The urbanization of existing suburban business parks and the
refurbishing and redevelopment of older industrial areas is an example of this shift.
DRAFT Town of Milton Employment Land Needs Assessment Study
Phase 2 Analyses And Recommendations Report 8
WHAT THE EXPERTS TOLD US
An expert panel event titled “Milton Employment Lands: Trends, Factors and Influences” was held on
Thursday November 26, 2015. The panel agreed that Milton has a great foundation for jobs and a strong
base of warehouse and logistics employment. The panel provided insights related to employment
planning and job creation highlighting the following key points.
a) Human capital is a critical factor contributing to the attractiveness of Milton as a place of
employment.
b) A vision for the future should include a balance of social and business goals.
c) The people and the policy-makers of Milton must consider what the Town’s core values are and
how these values would relate to the economic realities of Milton’s future.
d) Milton is well-positioned to retain local residents to work in the municipality instead of taking
the 400-series highway to commute to jobs elsewhere in the G.T.H.A.
e) The development timeline of employment areas is longer than all other uses. As such, build-out
and intensification of employment lands typically takes many years longer than other uses.
Given the longer timeframe of employment development, it is important for policy-makers to
evaluate short-term economic conditions with a strong understanding of the long-term goals of
the Town.
f) There are an increasing number of small and medium-sized firms engaged in innovation and
development in the Town of Milton, who have a specific set of workplace needs that should be
accommodated.
g) New and existing employment areas should be planned as “employment communities” that
have a variety of employment and employment-supportive uses.
Key industry stakeholders also provided information through a series of interviews. The stakeholders
echoed many of the comments heard at the panel session and reinforced the need to provide more
flexibility within the employment policies, the ability to provide for more focused employment
communities with a range of supportive uses, and the need to shift the focus of employment planning
from the “protection of lands” to the “creation of jobs”.
DRAFT Town of Milton Employment Land Needs Assessment Study
Phase 2 Analyses And Recommendations Report 9
DRAFT Town of Milton Employment Land Needs Assessment Study
Phase 2 Analyses And Recommendations Report 10
MILTON’S ECONOMIC PROFILE
A number of local economic, socio-economic and financial trends are influencing growth trends and
competitiveness on employment lands in the Town of Milton. They include the following:
a) Milton’s total employment base has more than doubled over the 1996- 2015 period, increasing
from approximately 19,500 to an estimated 38,200.
b) Milton has a strong presence in wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, retail trade
and construction, which are also growing sectors in the Town.
c) The manufacturing sector has a strong presence in the Town, but has experienced a steady
decline in employment over the past decade, consistent with trends in the broader economy.
d) In contrast, knowledge-based sectors, including professional, scientific and technical services,
finance and insurance as well as real estate, and rental and leasing which are generally under-
represented in the Town, have been experiencing moderate to steady employment growth
over the past 10 years.
e) Milton’s labour force1 has grown at a significantly faster rate than its employment base. Over
the 2001-2011 period, the Town’s labour force expanded from 19,000 to 48,000, an increase of
252%, compared to a 47% increase in the employment base2.
f) The Town’s live-work ratio has declined significantly, from 46% in 2001 to 26% in 2011.
g) Of the total employment base in Milton, 40% of jobs are held by Milton residents, while the
majority of the remainder commute from other municipalities in the western G.T.H.A.
MILTON’S EMPLOYMENT LAND SUPPLY
Milton’s employment land supply includes existing designated and built out lands, planned employment
areas (greenfield areas) and Future Strategic Employment Areas, intended to accommodate growth over
the longer term. A total of 688 net ha (1,700 net acres) of employment lands were identified as developed
within the Town of Milton as of November, 2015. The Town’s employment lands contain approximately
17.2 million sq.ft. of building space.
Milton’s designated employment lands include the Milton 401 Industrial and Business Park and Derry
Green Corporate Business Park. The planned employment areas include the Milton Education Village,
Southwest Milton, the Trafalgar/Derry Lands and the Milton 401 Industrial and Business Park Extension
lands. The Town also has approximately 1,400 gross ha (3,400 gross acres) of Future Strategic
Employment Area.
1 Labour force is defined as people who work that live in Milton. 2 Employment base are the jobs in Milton.
DRAFT Town of Milton Employment Land Needs Assessment Study
Phase 2 Analyses And Recommendations Report 11
MILTON’S ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY AND COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE
Milton has experienced strong development activity on its employment lands over the past decade. Over
the 2005-2014 period, the Town has averaged 82,000 sq.m. (882,600 sq.ft.) of building activity (new and
expansions) on employment lands annually. While development activity on employment lands in 2013
and 2014 was relatively modest, activity in the first three quarters of 2015 totaled 128,000 sq.m. (1.4
million sq.ft.), well above the 10-year historical average. New building construction has accounted for
85% of total development activity on employment lands over the 2006-2014 period, compared to 15%
for expansions.
Over the 2005-2014 period, 89% of development on employment lands has been in the industrial sector,
with 2% in office commercial and 9% in other commercial and institutional development. A significant
share of industrial development has been in logistics/distribution.
Milton’s share of Halton Region’s total new industrial development has increased significantly over the
past decade. From 2010 through 2014, Milton accounted for 70% of the Region’s industrial development
on employment lands. This is compared to 46% over the 2005-2009 period.
Employment land absorption levels have averaged approximately 20 net ha (49 net acres) per year.
Employment lands absorption in 2015 based on data through November totaled 30 net ha, significantly
higher than the 10-year historical average. Employment densities on employment lands absorbed over
the past decade have been slightly lower than the existing 2015 employment lands base (16 jobs per net
ha vs. 17 jobs per net ha).
Milton maintains a healthy and competitive role in the Regional and G.T.H.A. economic market. Its
competitive advantage is related to its location and access to Highway 401, a highly skilled labour force,
high quality of life, competitive cost of development in relation to market demand and potential return
on investment, and available land supply.
PLANNING POLICY CONTEXT
How Milton can plan for its future employment lands is bound by current Provincial and Regional policy.
The current Milton Official Plan also provides for approved Council direction for employment land that is
the subject of this review.
The 2014 Provincial Policy Statement (PPS) and the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (the
Growth Plan) set out legislated policies that require municipalities to accommodate employment growth
targets and the provision of policies to provide for the protection of employment areas. The Growth Plan
also provides policies related to the conversion of employment lands including specific criteria which
must be addressed during a municipal comprehensive review.
DRAFT Town of Milton Employment Land Needs Assessment Study
Phase 2 Analyses And Recommendations Report 12
Employment land planning is also directed through policies in Halton Region’s Official Plan. Regional
Official Plan Amendment 38 (ROPA38) includes population and employment forecasts to the year 2031,
on which the current land budget is based and through which development opportunities are planned.
Population Employment
Halton Region, 2031 780,000 390,000
Town of Milton, 2031 238,000 114,000
The in-effect Town of Milton Official Plan (OP 1997) was most recently consolidated in August 2008. To
respond to changes in both provincial planning legislation and regional planning policy related to growth
management and intensification, Official Plan Amendment 31 (OPA 31) was adopted by Council in 2010.
It is currently awaiting Regional approval. OPA 31 includes policies related to employment intensification,
employment conversion, mixed use areas, general employment areas and institutional areas that align
with the policy objectives of the Growth Plan and ROPA 38.
Subsequently in 2014, the Town of Milton conducted an initial study to inform its municipal
comprehensive review process with respect to planning for employment and commercial lands. The
report looked at the employment, commercial and retail land needs for the Town and provided
recommended policies, a detailed analysis of employment land supply and an evaluation of commercial
policies.
As part of the Phase 1 report, to examine possible approaches and options for employment planning, an
understanding of other municipal practices was important. The Official Plans of five municipalities, Ajax,
Hamilton, Oakville, Toronto and Vaughan, were evaluated to consider what employment land use
designations have been applied, what are the permitted uses and policies under these designations, what
types of specific policies, if any, addressed employment supportive and related uses, intensification of
employment uses, conversion of uses and how are older employment areas protected.
1.2 SURVEY RESULTS AND ADDITIONAL STAKEHOLDER INPUT
SURVEY RESULTS
At the conclusion of the Phase 1 study, an online survey was made available to solicit public opinion on
employment land planning. A series of statements about employment land planning and development
were provided and respondents were asked if they agreed or disagreed with the statement based on an
intensity scale of (1) being strongly disagree and (5) being strongly agree. The majority of the
respondents both lived and worked in the Town. The responses are generally summarized as follows:
Statement Response
DRAFT Town of Milton Employment Land Needs Assessment Study
Phase 2 Analyses And Recommendations Report 13
Older industrial areas should continue to be protected to maintain
existing businesses.
Respondents were split on
this response.
Older industrial areas should be phased out and redeveloped over
time.
The majority of respondents
agreed with this statement.
Logistics and warehousing uses are important to Milton’s economy
and should continue to be accommodated.
Responses were split on this
statement.
Areas should be planned for new businesses and uses with a
greater number of employees.
This statement was strongly
agreed to by respondents.
New employment areas in Milton should include supportive uses
such as banks and restaurants.
Respondents also strongly
agreed with this statement.
New employment areas should be located in proximity to
residential, institutional and commercial uses.
Respondents strongly agreed
with this statement.
Planning policies should protect employment land for the long
term.
Respondents strongly agreed
with this statement.
Planning policies should be flexible to be able to respond to the
market to permit a range of businesses and uses in employment
areas.
Respondents strongly agreed
with this statement.
Planning policies should be specific to permit certain types of uses
and restrict others.
Respondents strongly agreed
with this statement.
Planning policies should focus on ways to maintain and create jobs
and less on protection of land.
Respondents agreed with this
statement.
The survey responses reflect a general consensus for providing some flexibility in planning for
employment lands. While there was strong agreement with protecting employment lands there is also a
recognition that older employment areas evolve over time and planning should respond to the market
rather than restricting opportunities through rigid policies.
ADDITIONAL STAKEHOLDER INPUT
Additional stakeholder input was received through written submissions from local landowners and from
the public. A summary of these submissions is provided in Appendix A Employment Growth Forecast &
Needs.
2.0 ASSESSMENT OF MILTON’S EMPLOYMENT
AREAS
Building on the profile of employment areas provided in the Phase 1 background report, this section
provides an assessment of Milton’s employment areas through a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities,
and constrains (S.W.O.C.) analysis.
DRAFT Town of Milton Employment Land Needs Assessment Study
Phase 2 Analyses And Recommendations Report 14
2.1 PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF EMPLOYMENT AREAS
Employment areas require good access to regional transportation networks and trade corridors, on-site
infrastructure including roadways and utilities, a critical mass and available zoned, shovel-ready land.
Access to other major transportation infrastructure, such as airports, regional transit, rail lines,
intermodal facilities and ports, is also critical; however, the need and priority of such regional
infrastructure varies depending on the nature of the employment area. Employment areas are typically
located on flat to slightly rolling topography, preferably where large tracts of land can be assembled in
areas with minimal environmental constraints. Roadways within employment areas tend to be laid out
in a grid system to optimize circulation and parcel configuration. Parcels are typically square or
rectangular in shape to optimize site design. Many of these attributes help to optimize the end-users’
speed to market, while minimizing development costs and project risk.
The specific attributes that are required for an employment area to be successful are largely based on the
intended function and designations. These attributes are discussed in more detail below, with regard to
industrial areas and business parks.
INDUSTRIAL AREAS
Industrial areas within southern Ontario typically offer a mix of general and light industrial uses and
primarily accommodate employment sectors related to manufacturing, utilities, wholesale trade,
distribution and warehousing, transportation, as well as employment-supportive uses (i.e. ancillary
commercial service uses). These areas typically offer the following physical requirements:
Access – proximity to controlled access highways (i.e. Highway 401) is critical for the success of
general industrial parks that have a significant degree of manufacturing, wholesale trade and
warehousing, distribution and/or other industrial uses. These parks do not necessarily have to
be adjacent to a controlled access highway but must be in proximity and easily accessible via
major arterials that pass through limited residential or mixed-use commercial area(s).
Transportation and Infrastructure – over the past several decades, increased globalization of
the industrial economy has placed increasing importance on the growing interdependence of
domestic companies and their suppliers. As a result, there is an increasing trend for distribution
activities to agglomerate to take advantage of shared access to regional infrastructure such as
rail lines, intermodal facilities, and direct links to major highways via specialized road links.
Critical Mass – size is vital to ensure a wide selection/flexibility of land options and parks must
include a sufficient supply of large parcels. As a minimum, 80 Ha (200 acres) is a suitable size for
a park, in order to reach the critical mass needed to provide reasonable presence, choice and
economies of scale. However, newer industrial areas focused on warehousing and
transportation tend to be larger, in excess of 200 ha (500 acres).
DRAFT Town of Milton Employment Land Needs Assessment Study
Phase 2 Analyses And Recommendations Report 15
Parcel Size – while demand in the Town of Milton is anticipated to continue for medium- to
large-scale, land-extensive warehousing and distribution facilities (i.e. >200,000 sq.ft.), the
future needs of the logistics sector in Milton are anticipated to vary in terms of building and site
size. For smaller to mid-size facilities (i.e. <200,000 sq.ft.), manufacturing/assembly,
distribution and retailing are often integrated within facilities.
Location – location must provide efficient and effective vehicular access and circulation,
particularly for heavy truck traffic, with a minimum of two access points to enter/exit the
industrial area;
Land Use Compatibility – buffering and separation of uses are important for general industrial
areas in order to minimize noise, truck traffic, safety, and air pollution to neighbouring
residential and other sensitive land uses.
Market Choice – parcel size and configuration needs to be conducive for a wide range of
industrial land uses, especially for land extensive industrial uses.
Competitive Development/Operating Costs – land prices must be competitive, given the
relatively land-extensive nature associated with many uses in industrial areas.
BUSINESS PARKS
Business Parks typically are more oriented towards light industrial and office uses and have a more
prestige character than general industrial areas. Key physical attributes of successful business parks
include the following:
Access – access and exposure/visibility to controlled access highways or major arterial
roadways are critical for business parks, particularly for office uses.
Critical Mass – size is less important relative to general industrial areas; however, these areas
must be generally large enough to foster a sense of place within a well-defined precinct and
allow for on-site amenities.
Minimal Land Use Buffers – are typically required for business parks, as well as parks oriented
towards research and technology.
Land Use Compatibility – opportunities exist to integrate light industrial, commercial and
surrounding residential/mixed-use areas with minimal buffering, providing that potential land-
use conflicts are addressed. As discussed in the Phase 1 report, the notion of business park
development is evolving to include newer employment concepts geared towards research and
innovation. Innovation districts are typically comprised of a mix of land uses, including
institutional anchors (i.e. hospitals, universities), office, R&D facilities, local retail and
residential.
Employment-Supportive Uses – are often clustered at major intersections, gateway locations,
or are located within transition areas between light industrial and commercial and/or residential
areas.
DRAFT Town of Milton Employment Land Needs Assessment Study
Phase 2 Analyses And Recommendations Report 16
Character – park character is typically enhanced through high quality building design,
streetscapes and attractive landscaping, which can be implemented through site controls and
design guidelines.
2.2 DESIGNATED AND PLANNED EMPLOYMENT AREAS
Figure 2-1: Developed and Vacant Designated Employment Lands in Milton
2.2.1 MILTON 401 INDUSTRIAL AND BUSINESS PARK
The Milton 401 Industrial and Business Park is comprised of lands located on the both sides of Highway
401, both sides of Highway 25 and east to James Snow Parkway. Most of the land parcels have been
developed into distribution/logistics, manufacturing and transportation, and office uses. Approximately
30% of the developable lands in the serviced business park are currently vacant.
DRAFT Town of Milton Employment Land Needs Assessment Study
Phase 2 Analyses And Recommendations Report 17
2.2.2 DERRY GREEN CORPORATE BUSINESS PARK
The Derry Green Corporate Business Park encompasses unbuilt employment lands located south of
Highway 401 between James Snow Parkway and Sixth Line and extending down towards Britannia Road.
Within the park, 423 net ha (1,045 net acres) are designated primarily as Business Park with a pocket of
an area designated as industrial. Servicing of the park is underway and is planned to be completed for
the development of the Menkes and Orlando sites by the end of 2016. Designated employment lands are
anticipated to be shovel-ready and available for development in 2017.
Figure 2-2: Town of Milton Derry Green Corporate Business Park Land Use Plan
While the park is expected to accommodate the majority of the Town’s employment land development
over the medium term, development within the park is fragmented by the natural heritage system that
transects many of the land parcels. The park also contains “street oriented areas” along the eastern edge
of James Snow Parkway and Derry Road.
DRAFT Town of Milton Employment Land Needs Assessment Study
Phase 2 Analyses And Recommendations Report 18
2.2.3 MILTON 401 INDUSTRIAL AND BUSINESS PARK EXTENSION LANDS
The Milton 401 Industrial and Business Park Extension lands are located northeast of the Milton 401
Industrial and Business Park area. The lands are bounded by James Snow Parkway, 5 Sideroad, CN rail
corridor and natural features near Esquesing Line. These lands are most marketable for
distribution/logistics, transportation, multi-tenant industrial condos and advanced manufacturing. The
lands are part of a larger contiguous Employment Area – the Milton 401 Industrial and Business Park
which has a critical mass, has been highly successful and can build on the development activity and
success of the existing park. The lands have excellent access to Highway 401 via James Snow Parkway.
These lands are part of an area specific master plan being completed by Orlando Corporation which will
establish developable areas and is subject to environmental and servicing studies.
2.2.4 TRAFALGAR/DERRY LANDS
The Trafalgar/Derry Lands are part of the Sustainable Halton Lands (SHP) that represents the next
planned area for employment through ROPA 38. The lands are south and east of the Derry Green
Corporate Business Park Secondary Plan area and include the lands along the Trafalgar Road corridor.
The lands have a strong potential to accommodate a broad range of uses and employment sectors
including prestige office, warehousing/distribution and advanced manufacturing. The Trafalgar/Derry
Lands offer excellent access to Highways 401 and 407.
The Trafalgar/Derry Lands however are also strategically positioned to offer an environment with higher
order transit which can provide for a higher intensity of employment land uses and a complete
employment area with a focus around the potential GO station. Similar nodes have been planned and
are now being developed in and around other GO stations across the GTHA. While a mixed community
could take several years to develop, planned opportunities and infrastructure investment could provide
the conditions for a higher density office cluster at this higher order transit hub location. This location is
also unique in that it has both multi-directional highway capacity and a potential GO transit station to
serve the area.
Consideration of a performance based employment area at this location can create certainty for
investment decisions to help secure the future prosperity for the area. The Town has identified through
the MCR work that this area should be a Regional node. It will be important to ensure this area is fully
integrated with the surrounding community and ensure that a mix of uses is permitted to support the
threshold for a complete community onto itself.
The Town has identified a series of studies to be undertaken for this area to help frame future phases of
the Secondary Plan process and inform Milton Phase 4 - South Milton Urban Expansion Area. The
Trafalgar/Derry Secondary Plan process will also informed the phasing of development which will require
co-ordination with Regional servicing. The initial land base analysis will include a subwatershed study as
well as overall consideration for transportation planning and infrastructure support. An area servicing
plan by the Region will also significantly advance the planning for this area.
DRAFT Town of Milton Employment Land Needs Assessment Study
Phase 2 Analyses And Recommendations Report 19
2.2.5 MILTON EDUCATION VILLAGE
The Milton Education Village (MEV) employment lands are currently the subject of a secondary planning
exercise which is expected to refine the proposed employment area designations. The Secondary Plan
work is currently deferred pending a formal announcement by the Province related to additional funding
for a new university campus. As the proposed site of a university satellite campus, the MEV has the
potential to create a culture of innovation and build synergies between employment uses and the
proposed post-secondary institutions. Further, it offers the potential to provide high-quality
employment opportunities in southwest Milton, an area which traditionally has had limited employment
opportunities.
The MEV represents an area that can be directed through secondary plan policies to provide for a
complete, compact employment area/innovation district. This area can strategically become a
specialized employment node and can leverage increased employment densities through a land use
policy context that provides performance targets to achieve increased employment.
The MEV has the foundation to continue to grow to become a complete employment area with a balance
of institutional, offices and supportive residential uses. The Town’s significant land ownership as well as
a large single owner is also beneficial in providing a range of opportunities.
2.2.6 SOUTHWEST MILTON
Lands immediately to the south of the MEV offer comparable longer-term development opportunities.
Given its locational attributes, the area is well suited for prestige employment uses including office
development to accommodate research and development, professional and technical services and
advanced manufacturing. This area is also planned to serve to support the MEV. Maximizing employment
opportunities on these lands will be important given the commitment to infrastructure and servicing
planned for the area.
CN, which owns the majority of the lands within the area, is proposing the development of a large
intermodal facility on a 177 gross ha site, comprised largely of future employment land, bounded by
Britannia Road to the north, First Line to the east, Tremaine Road to the west, and 2nd Side Road to the
south. The CN intermodal proposal is still the subject of a federal environmental assessment process. The
future status of the intermodal proposal is unknown at this time and represents significant uncertainly as
to the impact on the nature and intensity of uses that are planned within the intermodal area and on the
employment lands within the broader geographic area.
Until decisions are finalized with respect to the intermodal facility proposal, it is premature to assess how
the potential employment urban structure may be affected and to what extent the planned urban
employment lands may be impacted.
DRAFT Town of Milton Employment Land Needs Assessment Study
Phase 2 Analyses And Recommendations Report 20
2.2.6 FUTURE STRATEGIC EMPLOYMENT AREAS
The Region has designated Future Strategic Employment Areas in Greenfield areas, under Sections
139.6 and 139.7 of ROPA 38, to meet employment land needs beyond the planning horizon of 2031. Parts
of Southwest Milton and Trafalgar/Derry Lands are identified as Future Strategic Employment Area.
Generally, these are lands located near major highway infrastructure the Region has identified for future
development.
The MCR work identified these lands as justified employment lands for the expansion of the urban
boundary. These lands are owned by a limited number of landowners and as such provide for the ability
to coordinate, finance and service large, contiguous parcels at strategic locations. With continued
completion from neighbouring markets, it will be important to facilitate the planning for these lands to
meet Milton’s employment needs. It will also be important to integrate these lands with the surrounding
planned communities through transitional areas.
Figure 2-3: Town of Milton Existing, Planned and Future Strategic Employment Areas
DRAFT Town of Milton Employment Land Needs Assessment Study
Phase 2 Analyses And Recommendations Report 21
2.3 EMPLOYMENT AREAS
STRENGTHS/WEAKNESSES/OPPORTUNITIES/CONSTRAINTS
(S.W.O.C.) ANALYSIS
As part of this study, Milton’s employment areas were reviewed through an S.W.O.C. analysis as
summarized in Figure 2-4. The analysis was based in part on the attributes of successful employment
areas discussed in Section 2.1 with consideration of the following factors:
Physical/economic characteristics, which include character of existing industrial base,
geographic location, continuity and delineation of the industrial area;
Amenities, anchors and catalysts (e.g. universities, hospitals) for development;
Access/circulation, which includes an assessment of the accessibility of each site via road
infrastructure and the visibility of the area to major transportation routes;
Development opportunities, including vacant land supply, available lots on the market, parcel
configuration and mix, servicing and site expandability; and
Range of employment uses that could be accommodated in the employment areas.
Figure 2-4 : Milton’s Employment Areas Analysis
Employment Area Strengths/Opportunities Weaknesses/Challenges
Milton 401 Industrial and Business Park (Designated)
A large, well established employment area of critical mass that is anchored by major industrial businesses.
Park has seen a significant amount of development activity in the past decade.
Direct access/exposure to Highway 401.
Good road circulation via major arterial roadways (James Snow Parkway, Highway 25, Steeles Avenue).
Well suited for a broad range of industrial uses, such as wholesale trade, distribution/logistics, warehousing and manufacturing.
Approaching buildout and a limited supply of site options remaining.
Recent development activity has been focused on large-scale warehousing, which has created vast areas homogeneous industrial built form with limited diversity of uses.
Derry Green Corporate Business Park (Designated)
Large contiguous Employment Area of critical mass.
Expected to significantly increase market choice of employment lands in Milton.
Designed to accommodate wide range of uses including prestige business park, general industrial, office
Southern portion lacks direct access/exposure to Highway 401.
DRAFT Town of Milton Employment Land Needs Assessment Study
Phase 2 Analyses And Recommendations Report 22
Employment Area Strengths/Opportunities Weaknesses/Challenges
development and employment supportive uses.
Northern half has direct access/exposure to Highway 401.
Direct access via major arterials including James Snow Parkway and Derry Road.
Direct rail access.
Anticipated to be available for development by the end of 2016.
Milton 401 Industrial and Business Park Area (Planned)
Contiguous expansion area of existing Milton 401 Industrial and Business Park – forms part of existing park.
Opportunities to build on development activity that has occurred in Milton 401 Industrial Business Park.
Access to Highway 401 via James Snow Parkway.
Lack of direct access/exposure to Highway 401.
Trafalgar/Derry Lands (Planned)
North half has good access to Highways 401.
Proximity to Highway 407.
Direct rail access.
Proximity to Milton CP Expressway Terminal West intermodal facility.
Good access to Highways 401 and 407 via Trafalgar Road and Derry Road.
Opportunities to capitalize on prestige employment development potential.
Located at the only undeveloped Highway 401 interchange within the G.T.A.
Location of possible future GO train station.
Distance of south half of employment area to Highway 401.
Somewhat fragmented developable land areas.
Milton Education Village (Planned)
Includes planned site of satellite university campus.
Potential to build synergies with post-secondary institution.
Potential to develop innovation district accommodating “knowledge-based” sectors.
Access via Tremaine Road.
Potential to create a culture of innovation at the Education Village Research Park.
Lack of access to 400 series highway.
Limited size.
DRAFT Town of Milton Employment Land Needs Assessment Study
Phase 2 Analyses And Recommendations Report 23
Employment Area Strengths/Opportunities Weaknesses/Challenges
In proximity to large urban expansion area (Boyne).
Potential to expand employment base in southwest Milton.
Southwest Milton (Planned)
Potential to build synergies with Milton Education Village and accommodate a broad range of prestige employment uses.
Proximity to large urban expansion area (Boyne).
Potential to expand employment base in southwest Milton.
Access via Tremaine Road and Britannia Road.
Direct rail access.
Lack of access to 400 series highway.
Fragmented developable land prevents large-scale employment areas of a contiguous nature.
Proposed CN intermodal facility would limit development potential of area with respect to diversity of uses and employment yields.
2.4 INDUSTRY SECTOR REQUIREMENTS
Location requirements of industry can vary considerably depending on the nature of the employment
sector/use. Employment sectors typically situated in employment areas have varying site-specific
requirements. Building on the Phase 1 background report, a number of industrial and commercial
sectors/employment uses are anticipated to experience economic growth on existing and planned
employment areas in the Town of Milton. These sectors include: Advanced Manufacturing; Research and
Development/Life Sciences; Major Office/Professional, Scientific and Technical Services/Business
Services; and Distribution and Logistics. Employment Areas with the physical attributes as summarized
in
Figure 2-5, would be best suited to attract these target employment sectors.
Figure 2-5: Physical Attributes of Employment Areas Required to Attract Target Employment Sectors
Employment Sector/ Land Use
Required Physical Attributes
Advanced Manufacturing Access to 400 series/controlled access highways.
Access to skilled and unskilled labour.
Proximity to markets and related industries.
Proximity to U.S.
Competitive land prices.
Parcel size: 1-4+ Ha.
Buffers from surrounding non-industrial uses.
General or prestige setting.
DRAFT Town of Milton Employment Land Needs Assessment Study
Phase 2 Analyses And Recommendations Report 24
Employment Sector/ Land Use
Required Physical Attributes
Expansion potential.
Research and Development/Life Sciences Sectors
Access to skilled labour force.
Proximity to related industry cluster (companies and public institutions such as universities and hospitals).
Prestige “campus-like” setting.
Parcel size: 1-2 Ha for standalone building or facility space within multi-tenant incubator/accelerator type building.
Flexible leasing options.
Proximity to high-order transit (regional connectivity).
Access to on-site amenities and proximity to off-site services. Major Office/Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Prestige setting.
Access to skilled labour force.
Access and exposure to 400 series/limited access highway or major arterials.
Access to on-site amenities and proximity to off-site services.
Parcel size: 1-2 Ha.
Proximity to high-order transit (regional connectivity).
Flexible leasing structures and market choice (multi-tenant versus freestanding office, Class A versus Type B office space and multi-tenant industrial condominiums).
Distribution/Logistics Land prices must be competitive, given the relatively land-extensive nature associated.
Sufficient supply of large parcel, as a minimum, 80 Ha (200 acres) is a suitable size, in order to reach the critical mass typically needed.
Parcel size and configuration needs to be conductive to land extensive developments.
Proximity to major infrastructure anchors, including transportation intermodal terminals and airports.
Efficient and effective vehicular access and circulation, particularly for heavy truck traffic.
Buffering in order to minimize noise and air pollution to neighbouring residential and other sensitive land uses.
2.5 MILTON’S EMPLOYMENT AREAS DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Based on the evaluation of Milton’s employment areas and the employment sector/ land use
requirements of the target industries, the following conclusions can be made:
Milton’s employment areas generally have good access and exposure to major 400-series
highways and arterial roads which is a key requirement for most sectors;
DRAFT Town of Milton Employment Land Needs Assessment Study
Phase 2 Analyses And Recommendations Report 25
Major G.T.H.A. transportation infrastructure is located in close proximity to the Town of Milton,
including the Pearson International Airport, CN and CP Intermodal facilities which will continue
to fuel demand for future growth in industrial related sectors;
GO Transit service in Milton provides regional transit connectivity west and east of the Town
which is a major driver for knowledge-based and office sectors;
Milton is anticipated to continue to experience strong growth which will further develop its
labour market. This is critical in attracting development from knowledge-based and office
sectors. In addition, the Town is in close proximity to major labour markets in the west
G.T.H.A.;
Milton has experienced strong growth in the distribution and logistics sector and going forward
this will likely continue given the supply of large parcels with excellent vehicular accessibility.
This includes remaining sites in the Milton 401 Industrial and Business Park, within Derry Green
Corporate Business Park and planned employment areas of Trafalgar/Derry Lands and the
Milton 401 Industrial and Business Park areas.
Derry Green Corporate Business Park was planned to accommodate a broader range of
employment uses than the Town has experienced to date. The locational attributes and
connection to supportive uses has not developed and it has proven difficult to attract a broader
mix of uses.
The future development of the Milton Education Village and a possible satellite university
campus will be a major catalyst in the development of an innovation district that will further
support and accommodate the Town’s growth in knowledge-based sectors.
The Southwest Milton lands have strong potential to develop as a prestige employment area
accommodating a broad range of employment uses including advanced manufacturing logistics
and “knowledge-based” sectors.
DRAFT Town of Milton Employment Land Needs Assessment Study
Phase 2 Analyses And Recommendations Report 26
3.0 FORECAST EMPLOYMENT GROWTH AND
EMPLOYMENT LAND NEEDS
This Chapter presents a long-term employment forecast by major sector for the Town of Milton based
on an assessment of local and regional growth drivers. A corresponding employment needs analysis
associated with a 20-year (2016-2036) and 25-year (2016-2041) planning horizon is also provided.
3.1 REGIONAL GROWTH DRIVERS
As previously discussed in Chapter 2 of the Phase 1 Report, a broad range of regional and local factors
related to economics, demographics and infrastructure is anticipated to drive the rate of future economic
and employment growth throughout the Town of Milton over the longer term. These drivers will not only
affect the rate and magnitude of employment growth but will also influence the form, density and
location of future employment growth on employment lands. The impacts of these regional growth
drivers on future employment growth trends in the Town of Milton are discussed below.
3.1.1 THE TOWN OF MILTON IS WELL POSITIONED TO CAPTURE A GROWING SHARE OF
REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH ON EMPLOYMENT LANDS
As previously discussed, Halton’s economic growth potential is largely tied to the success of the G.T.H.A.
as a whole. Over the next 25 years, the G.T.H.A population and employment base is forecast to steadily
increase, largely driven by the Region’s diverse and competitive employment base. Of the upper/single
tier municipalities in the G.T.H.A., Halton Region is anticipated to experience the highest annual rate of
population and employment between 2011 and 2041. Over this time period, Halton Region’s population
is expected to nearly double, with an increase from 520,000 to 1,000,000. Halton’s employment base is
anticipated to more than double, with an increase of approximately 236,000 jobs from 2011 to 2041.
Recent trends in the regional industrial real estate market indicate that suburban locations such as Milton
are well positioned to capture a growing share of industrial and office development on employment lands
in the future. As the larger urban areas of the West G.T.H.A. (i.e. Mississauga and Brampton in Peel
Region, and Oakville and Burlington in Halton Region) continue to mature and build out, increasing
growth pressure is being placed on G.T.H.A. and G.G.H. “Outer Ring” municipalities which offer
marketable development opportunities on employment lands.
Strategically located within the west G.T.H.A., Milton also has a strong appeal to new businesses and
residents. This appeal is largely attributed to the Town’s geographic location within the G.T.H.A., its
proximity to key regional infrastructure including the Toronto Pearson International Airport (T.P.I.A.),
Highways 401 and 407, regional transit (GO Transit), a large supply of serviceable greenfield employment
land supply, proximity to labour and a number of post-secondary institutions within a 1- to 2-hour radius.
The Town’s western G.T.H.A. location also offers proximity to the U.S. border and access to a number of
major employment markets within Southern Ontario and the U.S.
DRAFT Town of Milton Employment Land Needs Assessment Study
Phase 2 Analyses And Recommendations Report 27
Over the past decade, a shift in the location of industrial developments occurred in Halton Region.
Industrial development has traditionally been focused in south Halton (i.e. Oakville and Burlington), but
has increasingly migrated north to Milton and Halton Hills. To date, office development in Milton has
been relatively limited; however, this is expected to gradually change over the long term, as new
greenfield employment land supply opportunities in Milton become available for development, such as
Derry Green Corporate Business Park.
3.1.2 THE TOWN OF MILTON IS FORECAST TO ACCOMMODATE AN INCREASING SHARE
OF FUTURE EMPLOYMENT GROWTH IN HALTON REGION
Figure 3-1 summarizes historical and forecast employment for the Town of Milton as a percentage share
of the total employment within Halton Region between 2011 and 2041. As shown, between 2011 and
2016 Milton’s share of total employment within Halton Region has gradually increased from 14% to 15%.
It is anticipated that the Town’s share of the total employment growth within Halton Region will increase
significantly over the forecast period, increasing to 26% by 2031 and 32% by 2041. Of the Region’s area
municipalities, Milton is expected to account for the largest share of Halton Region’s employment growth
over the 2016 to 2041 forecast period. The Town’s employment forecast is discussed in further detail in
section 3.2
Figure 3-1: Town of Milton’s Share of Halton Region Employment Base, 2011 to 2041
14% 15% 17% 21% 26%32%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2041
Year
Milton Rest of Halton Region
Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.Note: Share analysis based on Alternative Forecast for Milton
DRAFT Town of Milton Employment Land Needs Assessment Study
Phase 2 Analyses And Recommendations Report 28
3.2 TOWN OF MILTON LONG-TERM EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
Building on the updated economic and employment analysis carried out as part of the Phase 1
Employment Lands Review Report and the regional growth drivers summarized above, two long-term
employment forecasts – Reference Scenario and Alternative Scenario – were prepared for Milton. The
Alternative Scenario forms the basis for the employment land needs analysis presented herein.
3.2.1 EMPLOYMENT FORECAST SCENARIOS
Employment forecasts under the Reference and Alternative Scenarios are presented in Figure 3-2. The
Reference Scenario targets the 2031 employment forecast in accordance the Halton Region 2011 Best
Planning Estimates (B.P.E.). The 2011 Halton Region B.P.E. forecasts a total of 114,300 jobs within the
Town of Milton by 2031. The Alternative Scenario reflects employment market trends and is not tied to
the 2011 Halton Region B.P.E. 2031 employment forecast.
Under the Reference Scenario, the Town’s employment base is forecast to reach 114,000 by 2031 and
162,000 by 2041. This is compared to 103,000 by 2031 and 151,000 by 2041 under the Alternative
Scenario. The difference in incremental employment growth between the two scenarios is entirely within
the 2016 to 2031 timeframe (a difference of 11,000 jobs). The incremental employment growth between
2031 and 2041 is the same under both scenarios. Both employment forecasts are based on the
assumption that Milton’s population base will increase from 109,000 persons in 20163 to 234,600 persons
by 2031 and approximately 369,000 persons by 2041.4
3 As estimated by Watson & Associates. Population figures include Census undercount of approximately 4%. 4 Population forecast to 2031 is in accordance with Halton Region Best Planning Estimates. 2041 population forecast prepared by Watson &
Associates. Population figures include Census undercount of approximately 4%.
DRAFT Town of Milton Employment Land Needs Assessment Study
Phase 2 Analyses And Recommendations Report 29
Figure 3-2: Town of Milton Employment Forecast – Reference vs. Alternative Scenario
Figure 3-3 summarizes the Alternative Scenario by major employment sector from 2016 to 2041 in
contrast to the Reference Scenario. Approximately half (5,600 jobs) the employment reduction assumed
in the Alternative Employment Scenario can be attributed to the industrial sector. Moderately lower
employment growth is also assumed in the commercial non-retail sector (3,900 fewer jobs) as a result of
lower office employment growth. No Fixed Place of Work employment has also been reduced by 1,450
jobs, reflecting the reduction in industrial employment prospects.
Figure 3-3: Employment Growth by Sector – Reference vs. Alternative Forecast
50,600
72,500
103,300
128,750
151,000
54,550
81,000
114,250
139,700
161,950
22,17527,600
32,62538,650
0
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
200,000
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
Tota
l E
mp
loym
ent
Year
Alternative Forecast Reference Forecast
Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Alternative
Scenario
Reference
ScenarioAbsolute %
Industrial 27,200 32,800 -5,600 -17%
Commercial Retail 24,875 24,875 0 0%
Commercial Non-Retail 17,950 21,850 -3,900 -18%
Institutional 18,300 18,300 0 0%
No Fixed Place of Work 13,625 15,075 -1,450 -10%
Work at Home 10,400 10,400 0 0%
Total 112,350 123,300 -10,950 -9%
Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Employment Growth, 2016-2041 Difference
DRAFT Town of Milton Employment Land Needs Assessment Study
Phase 2 Analyses And Recommendations Report 30
In accordance with our review of the Town’s existing employment base, and a comprehensive review of
forecast employment growth potential by sector and in the broader regional context, the Consultant
Team has adopted the Alternative Employment Scenario as the basis for estimating future employment
land demand and land needs over the planning horizon.
The following presents future employment growth in five-year increments by major employment sector
over the 2016 to 2041 period based on the present (i.e. Alternative Scenario) employment forecast.
3.2.2 TOWN OF MILTON FUTURE EMPLOYMENT GROWTH, 2016 TO 2041
As shown in Figure 3-4, Milton’s employment base is forecast to increase from 38,650 in 2016 to 103,300
in 2031, and 151,000 by 2041. Over the forecast period, Milton’s employment base is expected to expand
by approximately 112,000, nearly a four-fold increase from its current base (i.e. year 2016). This
represents an average annual employment growth rate of 5.6% per year. Figure 3-5 provides a more
detailed summary of the long-term employment forecast by major employment sector.
Figure 3-4: Town of Milton Employment Forecast, 2016 to 2041
Figure 3-5: Town of Milton Employment Forecast by Major Sector, 2016 to 2041
Incremental employment growth in five-year increments is illustrated in Figure 3-6. Forecast
employment growth over the 2016 to 2041 period will be driven by steady population growth and