Towards more consistent assessments of country-level impacts of climate change

Towards more consistent assessments of country-level impacts of climate change

To find out more or be kept up-to-date on project activities, visit our website or email us: www.unep.org/provia/ACTIVITIES/CLICC or [email protected]

L. Horrocks (1); G. Wilkins (1); S. Winne (1); J. Lowe (2); H. McGray (3); J. Cook (4)

(1) Ricardo-AEA, Adaptation and Climate Resilience, Didcot, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom; (2) Met Office Hadley Centre, Climate Knowledge Integration, Exeter, United Kingdom; (3) World Resources Institute, Vulnerability & Adaptation Initiative, Washington DC, United States of America; (4) UK Department of Energy and Climate Change, Climate Science and International, London, United Kingdom

contribution number 4418-13

What is CLICC?The ‘Country level impacts of climate change’ (CLICC) project is creating a common process to enable countries to communicate their climate impacts and vulnerabilities in a more consistent and transparent way.

The initiative is supported by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the UK Government’s Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), and the Global Programme of Research on Climate Change Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation (PROVIA).

Why is CLICC important?There is currently no international process for presenting consistent information about climate impacts at the national level. This means it is hard to compare results from different assessments and different countries, or to attempt a synthesis at the country level.

The CLICC initiative addresses this gap.

CLICC helps connect national plans, international dialogue, finance and research through enhanced communication of impacts and vulnerability at the country level. It facilitates and adds value to the existing assessment and reporting processes that countries are undertaking. CLICC is unique in being country-driven and country-delivered.

Countries Consulted• Australia

• Bangladesh

• Brazil

• China

• Costa Rica

• Egypt

• Ethiopia

• Fiji

• France

• Germany

• Ghana

• Indonesia

• India

• Italy

• Japan

• Kenya

• Mexico

• Nepal

• Peru

• Philippines

• Poland

• Republic of Korea

• Russia

• Saudi Arabia

• South Africa

• Spain

• Tanzania

• Turkey

• UK

• USA

• Vietnam

Participating countries express many reasons to be involved in CLICC, such as: building the dialogue with other countries on impacts including trans-boundary impacts, providing transparency on the evidence for impacts experienced and expected by countries, underpinning adaptation planning, consolidating existing studies in countries, building national capacities and knowledge, promoting good practice on impact assessment methodologies, and helping to unlock climate funds.

CLICC’s core aims are:

• To facilitate global understanding of country-level climate impacts to support action on climate change, by informing national mitigation and adaptation planning, and international dialogue

• To promote good practice and collective learning in assessing climate impacts

CLICC will provide a combination of process and product elements, such as:

CLICC Learning Journey

Process for countries and international bodies to agree common parameters and methods for evolving CLICC products, building capacity.

CLICC Profile Narrative-based, adopting a standard structure across common categories, and capturing the underlying metadata.

CLICC Dashboard

Quantitative or semi-quantitative, communicating impacts information “at a glance”, becoming more comprehensive over time.

CLICC in summary:

• Focus on communication of scientific evidence for impacts at country level

• A common frame connecting institutions and plans, nationally and internationally

• Consistency and transparency with potential to compare impacts between countries

• Collective learning and capacity building alongside development of products

Share good practice and agree common approaches

Figure is illustrative only – initial products to be defined in Technical Pilots

More comprehensive content over time

Common core content with local flexibility

What will CLICC provide?CLICC is not primarily about producing a single set of technical outputs. Instead, it is a journey of collaboration between a growing number of countries wishing to communicate information on country level climate impacts in a more consistent way.

The CLICC technical approach will combine qualitative and quantitative features in a common core with locally-flexible options and associated metadata. The approach will evolve over time through shared experience.

Preface

Executive summary

Section 1: Observed climate change and climate extremes

Section 2: Future climate projections

Section 3: Impacts of climate change

3.1. Food security and food production systems

3.2. Freshwater resources

3.3. Coastal systems and low-lying areas

3.4. Urban areas

... ...Section 4: Vulnerability to climate change

Section 5: Adaptation to climate change

Section 6: Planned work, research gaps and future research

Section 7: Communication, education and awareness

Section 8: Conclusions and recommendations

Annexes Annex 1: References, data sources and metadata

CLICC Profile CLICC DashboardObservations

Future Climate Projections

Vulnerability

Climate impacts

Categories Impacts Under 2 degrees Celsius Under 4 degrees Celsius References or data sources

Main assessment methods usedSignificance

(High / Medium / Low)

Confidence

(1-5 stars)

Significance

(High / Medium / Low)

Confidence

(1-5 stars)

Food security and food production systems

• It is uncertain how climate change will affect yields of crops.

• Some models suggest a north-south divide with increased yields (especially of wheat) in the north and decreases in the south.

Low ** Low * Author (Year) Title .........

...

Freshwater resources • The south and south-east are currently vulnerable to water shortages.

• These pressures are likely to grow as more droughts take place here.

• By the 2080s the majority of river basins will be far drier than the 1961–1990 average.

Medium *** High ** Author (Year) Title .........

...

Coastal systems and low-lying areas

• As sea levels rise, coastal flooding is likely to have a major impact.

• Research suggests that it is one of the most vulnerable countries in the region.

• An estimated nearly 1 million people per year could be affected by sea level rise by the 2080s, but this could be reduced to only around 5,500 if sufficient adaptation measures are adopted.

High *** High ** Author (Year) Title .........

...

Urban areas • Flooding may become a significant risk to buildings and infrastructure by the 2050s.

• Increasing summer temperatures may lead to overheating of buildings and heat related damage or disruption to energy and transport networks.

Medium ** Medium ** Author (Year) Title .........

...

... ...

Metadata

CLICC Learning journey

Establishing the initiative Transition phase Onward delivery

Adoption by international body

• Define functions

• Develop governance

Technical pilots CLICC products

What happens next?The CLICC project is the starting point to establish a longer term sustainable programme under an existing international body, such as UNEP. Some major next steps include:

• Pilots: Working with a small number of countries to refine the technical approach, provide pilot products and clarify future resourcing requirements.

• Coordination and funding: Engagement with countries and international bodies to explore funding options and shape arrangements for the long-term CLICC programme.

• Research and consult

• Build support

• Consolidate approaches

• Strengthen relationships

• Secure funding

• Implementation

Country Level Impacts of Climate ChangeCLICC

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