Towards a First Australian Decadal Plan for Space Science: 2007-2016. National Committee for Space Science (Iver H. Cairns, Charlie Barton, David Cole,

Towards a First Australian Decadal Plan for Space Science: 2007-2016.

National Committee for Space Science (Iver H. Cairns, Charlie Barton, David Cole, Peter Dyson,

Brian Fraser, Alex Held, Andrew Parfitt, Malcolm Walter, and Bob Vincent)

WARS 2006, 17/02/06

I. What is Space Science? II. A Decadal Plan? What is it …motivations...? III. Intended Purview, Structure & FociIV. Draft Working Groups.V. Strawman Themes and ProjectsVI. Summary & Call for Input.

[See www.physics.usyd.edu.au/~ncss for Strawman documents & initial feedback.]

I. What is Space Science?

• Science associated with solar system phenomena and objects.

• “Everything above the tropopause”.

• Includes “space physics”, “solar physics”, “atmospheric and other geosciences”, “planetary science”, “astrobiology”, remote sensing of Earth from orbit, ….

• Astronomy extra-solar system.

i. Solar & interplanetary phenomena

Type II radio burst from a CME shock [Knock & Cairns, 2005]

SOHO (LASCO C2)

• Observations: ground (remote) or space (in situ and remote).• Theory/modelling of plasma physics & entire space phenomenon

ii. Sun-Earth coupling & space weather

• Currents, B and n fluctuations, atmospheric changes, aurorae …• Energetic particle damage …• EMFs, GPS & satellite/ground communication problems, …• major effects on humanity.

Halloween 2003 Storms

[Yizengaw et al., 2005]

Some Australian Space Instuments

TIGERradar

FedSat – only spacecraftCulgoora

Antarctica

iii. Planetary Sciences / Astrobiology

Voyager (L) then Galileo (ices & minerals)

Properties & evolution of planets and Life.

iv. Remote Sensing of Earth

Atmosphere, ionosphere, environment, minerals, space weather ..

2. A Decadal Plan? What, Why …• Australian Academy of Science has ~ 20 National

Committees : – Intended to foster an area/field of science– Link Australian and international scientists in the area.

• National Committee for Space Science (NCSS) has decided to develop a first Australian Decadal Plan for Space Science.

• National Committee for Astronomy (NCA) has developed Decadal Reviews for 30 years.

What should a Decadal Plan do?

The Decadal Plan should• Present exciting, widely-agreed, visionary research

themes and projects directed towards achieving the longterm scientific goals of the Australian space science community.

• Link this research and goals with the interests and requirements of Australian constituencies: the wider scientific community, Government, Industry, and public.

• Be the space community’s official position on major funding projects.

• Increase public and corporate interest in, and funding to, Australian space science.

• Carry the imprimatur of the Australian Academy of Sciences, leading to improved political clout.

Motivations for a Decadal Plan• Boost scientific and political cohesiveness of

community: widely agreed goals, projects, & vision, plus better links.

• Link space scientists better with Government, Industry, the public & other disciplines.

• Trained workforce & experts for National Interest.• Shame - Govt responsible for ~1/8 Space since

claims ~1/8 world’s surface: How so if don’t know/understand space?

• Boost for space science’s public profile & funding.• More funding & more opportunities.• Improved funding of large-ticket items.

“Space: A Priority for Australia” – Senator Grant Chapman & SPAG [December 2005]

• “Space technologies are essential to resolve vital national interest issues which span … services used by industry, government & citizens …national security, water .. mining, .. transport. ”

• “Currently we are operating in a high-risk environment. Even the temporary loss of many key, space-based services … would damage the nation.”

• Currently there is no official public Australian space policy.

• Of top 26 nations by GDP only 2 have no space program: Australia (14) and Mexico (11) …

• In ASEAN Australia one of few without a space program.

• In this environment the Decadal Plan is a huge opportunity to advance space science.

III. Progress towards the Decadal Plan?

• 30 September 2005 - NCSS announces Development of Decadal Plan - release of Draft Structure, Purview, and Strawman documents - NCSS asks for written comments & volunteers to develop Plan

• 28 October 2005 - Deadline for initial feedback - NCSS started to revise the Process, incorporate feedback, and organize detailed development and writing of the Plan

• Late February 2006 - Announce Working Group Chairs & Structure

• March 2006 - Release of Revised Process, Purview, Structure and Strawman documents

- Will announce Plan organizers, development teams, etc. - Detailed written suggestions to be sent to teams

• June - Reports to Steering Committee • July - Draft Plan Released for Comment

• ~ October 2006 - Release of Plan

“brainstorming period”

“first revision period”

Townhall Meetings

Purview of NCSS Decadal Plan?

• NCSS: Science associated with solar system phenomena and objects.

• Main Scientific Themes: – Sun & connections to Earth, including space

weather– Fundamental physics, chemistry, geology and

biology of natural space plasmas– Planetary science and astrobiology– Remote sensing from space of Earth’s

atmosphere, environment, and geology

Purview (cont.)• NCSS: Science associated with solar system

phenomena and objects.• NCA: Science associated with extra-solar system

phenomena and objects.• NC Earth Sciences: Ground-based geosciences.• NC Antarctic Research: Antarctica.• Allows each NC to focus on its area of expertise,

& minimizes arguments about boundaries.– Avoids a NC claiming all of other's interests.– Overlap exists & needs constructive approach.– Should allow efficient referencing and support of other

NC's plans in each NC's documents.

Purview of NCSS Decadal Plan?• NCSS & NCA have agreed that NCSS has primacy for

solar system phenomena and objects, including– solar science,– solar-terrestrial physics (space weather, & CAWSES,

ILWS & other Sun-Earth Connections programs), – magnetospheric physics, – ionospheric/atmospheric science, – space enabling technology (e.g.,rockets and

spacecraft-plasma interactions), – and astrobiology.

• These will be major foci of NCSS Decadal Plan

Science Organization

Science Themes: Longterm Vision & Big Picture Questions

Science Projects & Facilities

Links and Benefits to Government & Industry

Principles for action/participation

Research areas in which i) we are known internationally to have extensive expertise and to be competitive, ii) “local” Australian information/knowledge is a national priority, iii) we can leverage Australia's limited funds so that participation adds unique value and benefits to Australia and, ideally, the international community.

IV. Working Group Structure (Provisional)

• Steering Committee: final responsibility for the development, writing, approval, and publication of the Decadal Plan.

• Working Group: researches a specific component of the Decadal Plan and then provides recommendations (e.g., priority research topics, ideas, and projects) and draft text for the Plan to the Steering Committee.

Decadal Plan Steering Committee

Science Working Groups

Industry /ScienceWorking Groups

Government Working Group

DemographicsWorking Group

Public Outreach Working Group

Working Group Names & Contacts

• Decadal Plan Steering Committee. (Chair: Iver Cairns, [email protected])

• Demographics Working Group (Chair: Brian Fraser, [email protected] )

Government and Public

• Government Working Group (Chair: Andrew Parfitt, [email protected] )

• Public Outreach Working Group (Chair: Peter Dyson but TBC)

Science Working Groups

• New Australian Instruments and Space Missions (Chair: Brian Fraser, [email protected])

• Sun-to-Mud Coupling (Chair: Colin Waters, [email protected] )

• Remote Sensing of Earth from Space (Chair: Alex Held, [email protected])

• Planetary Sciences (Chair: Marc Norman, [email protected])

• Theory, Modelling & Data Provision/Storage (Chair, TBD)

Industry/Science Working Groups

• Ground Working Group (Chair, TBD)

• Industrial Space Weather Working Group (Chair: David Cole, [email protected])

• Space Technology Working Group (Chair: Rod Boswell, [email protected])

V. Strawman Themes & Projects

Strawman Themes / Global Science Questions (longer than 1 Decadal Plan to answer)

1. Understand the Sun and its connections to Earth, including space weather, the atmosphere, and effects on modern human society.

2. Understand the physics, chemistry, geology, and biology of natural space and astrophysical plasmas. (Physics subthemes might include particle acceleration, radiation processes, and magnetic reconnection, while chemistry/geology might include planet formation, and biology links to astrobiology.)

3. Assess accurately and remotely from orbit the environmental and geological conditions in Australia, Antarctica and their environs.

4. Determine the conditions for life to evolve and whether they met elsewhere in our solar system and beyond.

Directly relevant to 3 National Priority Research Areas (Environmentally Sustainable Australia, Frontier Technologies for Building and Developing Australian Industries, and Safeguarding Australia) but more general.

Strawman Science Goals (this Decadal Plan)

a) Understand the processes that cause fast magnetic reconnection to occur and result in particle acceleration and wave excitation, with

applications to solar and magnetospheric plasmas.

b) Observe and model the drivers of terrestrial space weather from the Sun to the ionosphere and lower atmosphere.

c) Observe and model spatiotemporal variations in energy flow from the magnetosphere to the lower atmosphere, including the driving and propagation of ionospheric waves and changes in chemistry and other properties of the ionosphere and neutral atmosphere.

Science Themes

1. Understand the Sun and its connections to Earth, including space weather, the atmosphere, and effects on modern human society.

2. Understand the physics, chemistry, geology, and biology of natural space and astrophysical plasmas.

Draft Science Projects

• Flagship Projects – large scope, payoff, and expense

• Other projects with smaller scope and expense.

Flagship: “Octant”

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• Connection to FedSat and international space/ground networks • Provide vital ionospheric info for SKA, NTD, MWA etc. (justify in Oz). • Provide ionospheric, atmospheric, and comms info (and cover) for national security, plus associated high-tech training.• Major industry benefits and high-tech products for export.

• ~1/8 World’s surface: Radar, optical/IR, GPS TEC & scints, magnetometer, digisonde, solar radio, and radio comms.

• Study Sun-Earth connections & space weather from Sun to magsphere

to ionosphere/ground on a global basis (pole ↔ equator).

Small Project: Digitisation & Automation of TIGER/SuperDarn Radars

1. Develop for remote/virtual & autonomous use

major improvements in efficiency & effectiveness of operations - "Virtual Radars“.

2. From analog to digital. permit multiple arrays to be placed cost-

effectively in the Octant and worldwide– Significant industry benefits and high-tech products

for export (cf. ATRAD, Genesis etc.).

Flagship: Virtual Theory/Modelling/Data Center

• Center for modelling and theory that provides the theoretical underpinnings for, links, and supports Australia’s observational program in space science.– Develops existing expertise in space physics, remote

sensing, planetary & geosciences, and astrobiology into an international center.

– Access and management of Australian datasets, linkage to eGY and other international data exchange schemes and virtual observatories.

– Vital to integrate new results and to build/bring together the scientific community (plus Govt & Industry).

Suggested Scope for NCSS Plan

• Ground-based space science - $10 million• Sun-Earth instruments and missions - $20 million• Planetary instruments and missions – $10 million• Remote sensing Earth from space – $10 million• Theory/modelling/data storage effort – $10 million

Total of $60 million over 10 years.

VI. Overview & Conclusions• NCSS is developing the first Australian Decadal Plan for

Space Science: 2007-2016, www.physics.usyd.edu.au/~ncss .• Plan must excite, energise, link, and redevelop the

Australian space science community.• Foci are space physics, atmospheric and related

geosciences, planetary sciences, remote sending from space, and astrobiology.

• Completion desired ~ October 2006. Needed are: 1. Volunteers to join Working Groups to develop the Plan.2. Analysis and decisions on Govt/Industry and macro issues. 3. Analysis and decisions on Themes, Science Goals, and detailed

Project concepts, science justifications, and budget cases. 4. Constructive criticism of the draft Plan. 5. Constructive win-win links to NCA and similar Plans and support

from NCA, NC Earth Sciences, NCRS etc.Please get involved and volunteer your time, energy, and detailed comments. Join the circulating email list to keep informed.