Towards a Carbon-Neutral Future: Jimmy Adegoke Chris Green Center for Applied Environmental Research (CAER) University of Missouri-Kansas City Scenario-based.

Towards a Carbon-Neutral Future:Towards a Carbon-Neutral Future:

Jimmy Adegoke

Chris Green

Center for Applied Environmental Research (CAER) University of Missouri-Kansas City

 Scenario-based Assessment of Climate-induced Risks to

Regional Energy Production and Trends in the Kansas City Area

Climate Impacts Science

naturehumans

climate

CLIMATE IMPACTSSCIENCE

Adaptation & Change

External Stresses

Managed Natural Resource Systems

Climate Research Community

- Seasonal/interannual climate forecasting

- Anthropogenic climate change projections

Climate Impacts Assessment Climate Impacts Assessment Institutional

Barriers

Institutions- Resource Managers

- Policymakers

- User Communities

Nature

• Although the prediction of a subset of possible future climate conditions or scenarios can be helpful, a vulnerability assessment of risk to climate and other environmental stress is the most useful guide that science can provide to policy makers.

Credit: The UW Climate Impacts Group (CIG)

People Driven – Regional FocusPeople Driven – Regional Focus

Motivation:• Increase regional

resilience to climate variability and change

• Produce science useful to the decision making communityAn understanding of the patterns and consequences of

past climate variability, policy responses and their impacts is essential for preparing for future changes in climate.

AgricultureWater Resources

EnergyHealth

Climate Protection in Kansas City MOClimate Protection in Kansas City MOTimeline

1996

The Environmental Management Commission (EMC) was created.

2001

The EMC created the KC Sustainability Plan to holistically address city operations, codes and ordinances, and regional cooperation.

2004

City adopts a mandatory LEED Silver Rating for all new city buildings.

2005

The EMC negotiated curb-side recycling in 2005. Mayor Kay Barnes signs the Climate Protection Partnership in 2005.

2006

The EMC’s recommended Climate Protection Resolution was passed.

2007

The EMC led efforts in 2007 to implement cost-effective mitigation strategies to reduce GHG emissions from city operations below

30% 2000 levels by 2020.

Climate Protection in Kansas City MOClimate Protection in Kansas City MO

• Formed by the Greater Kansas City Chamber of Commerce

• 145 area businesses have signed on

• Obligations include:– conduct an inventory of greenhouse gas emissions– set clear reduction goals that maximize economic

opportunity and minimize business and regulatory risk

The Greater Kansas City Chamber of Commerce The Greater Kansas City Chamber of Commerce Climate Protection PartnershipClimate Protection Partnership

UMKC Center for Applied Environmental Research (CAER) provides Technical Consulting

Services to the Partnership

Swope Community Enterprises

Swope Community Enterprise Services

Swope Health Services

Swope Community Builders

Swope Center for Career Advancement

Applied Urban Research Institute

Carbon Emission Accounting for Swope Community Enterprises (SCE)

Carbon Footprint CalculatorCarbon Footprint Calculator

2007 Carbon Costs for SCE

Total:• $270,326 for electricity• $18,272 for natural gas• $65,580 for automotive fuel• $138,101 for paper purchases• $9,365 for waste disposal____

$501,644

SCE’s Total Footprint

• 5400 tons from electricity• 1170 tons from automotive fuel• 24 tons mainly from paper products• 59 tons from natural gas usage• 5 tons from waste disposal_____________ 6,659 tons of CO2

– 9 tons sequestered 6,650 tons of CO2

Mitigation Projections

A Residential “Savings” AssessmentA Residential “Savings” Assessment

Potential savings of policies encouraging energy efficiency measures can be calculated region-wide

1. Household numbers by city and county are provided in Census’s Tiger data available from esri.com

2. Energy usage data available by region on DOE’s website

3. Average reductions in energy usage and bills using specific energy efficient devices are available on Energy Star website

4. Reductions in energy usage from energy efficient devices and measures can be subtracted from total household energy data per city or county in an excel spreadsheet

The spreadsheet can be displayed in ArcGIS and potential savings can be graded using ArcGIS statistical analysis tools.

Households per

city/county

Census Bureau

Energy usage per

household

DOE

xEnergy usage reductions

Energy Star

- =Reduced

energy usage per household

New Energy Usage

What is the potential for KCMO to What is the potential for KCMO to move toward a carbon-neutral move toward a carbon-neutral

future?future?

1. UMKC Center for Applied Environmental Research (CAER) is conducting this study on behalf of the Kansas City Environmental Management Commission (EMC)

2. Goal is to identify risks and opportunities from future climate change to specific sectors in Kansas City Metropolitan Area

Scenarios for a Carbon Constrained World

The Hazard-Vulnerability Paradigm

• The hazard-vulnerability paradigm focuses on the protection of society by emphasizing assessment of risk associated with climate and other environmental stress and/or hazards.

• This approach quantifies the sensitivity of individual sectors such as transportation, health, agriculture, energy etc to a specific hazard and is therefore, more appropriate as guides to Policy Makers, than trying to predict only a subset of possible future climate conditions.

• Study boundaries

1. Urban area – KCMO city limits

2. Surrounding area – census designated metropolitan area, fifteen counties and over 120 cities or MARC nine-county area

Defining the ScopeDefining the Scope

Source: http://www.marc.org/members.htm http://www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kansas_City_Metropolitan_Area.htm

1. Identify stakeholders of each sector

a) Determine sector composition and key stakeholders

b) Research climate-impact studies conducted by government agencies, private institutions, or other entities that are relevant to particular sectors

Identifying Stakeholders and Partners

Energy Sector Stakeholders

a) Power Production Companies – KCP&L,

b) Commercial & Residential Consumers

c) County & City Governments

d) Regulators

Phase IIPhase II

2. Sectoral interviews and focus groups

a) Conduct interviews and focus groups with sector stakeholders to discuss climate-related perceptions, impacts, adaptations, and mitigation methods

3. Sector surveys

a) Based on the interview results, construct an online survey instrument to collect information on the impacts from specific extreme weather events on individual sectors

Kansas City’s Energy Sector

Consumption Generation

Electricity Natural Gas Propane

Coal Natural Gas Wind

Residential Commercial Industrial

Household Electricity Use

Specific Climate Impacts!

Integrated Impacts Assessment Integrated Impacts Assessment

Regional Climate Model Regional Climate Model

– CAER will analyze archived climate data to examine intensity, frequency, and duration of sector impacting events

– A regional climate model will be used to simulate impacts based on IPCC Scenarios.

– Climate model outputs will be used to drive an economic model to quantify regional economic impacts of climate change.

DICE/RICEDICE/RICE

– Regional dynamic Integrated model of Climate and Economy (1996)

– Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and Economy (1990)

– Connects climate change and economic impacts

– Economic damages (or opportunities) are calculated as a function

of sector composition

1.Confidence in future climate change projections is increasing, but uncertainties remain

2.We know less about the impacts from regional climate change and local vulnerabilities

3.Lack of support for local decision making and risk analyses for the business community

Political will to develop policy and technology options that are feasible and cost effective is

growing

Regional Climate Impacts Assessment: Problems Regional Climate Impacts Assessment: Problems and Prospectsand Prospects

National Response to the Climate Change Challenge – Pace Initially Slow; Now Picking Up

US House of Rep. Select Committee on Energy Independence & Global Warming Hearing: “Global Warming Effects on Extreme Weather”

July 10, 2008 Washington DC

July 10, 2008