Topic 3 – Agriculture and Food

GEOG 6 – Resources and EnergyProfessor: Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue

Hofstra University, Department of Global Studies & Geography

Professor: Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue


Professor: Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue


Topic 3 – Agriculture and Food

A – Food ModelsB – Food Production and TradeC – The Green Revolution and Food Security

© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue

A. FOOD MODELS

1. The Human Diet2. Nutrition Transitions3. Malnutrition


1. The Human Diet

■ The human diet• Minimum caloric requirement:

• 2,700 calories for men and 2,000 calories for women.• Diet is organized along models:

• No single food can supply human needs in protein, vitamins and amino acids.

• Result of the socio-economic environment of the population:• About 15 plants and 8 animal species supply 90% of food.• Commonality of some food components in different parts of the world.• Related to an average daily calorie intake.• Linked to agricultural practices, but also to agribusiness and food

processing industries.• Factors:

• Income (quantity, quality, meat consumption).• Culture (preferences and preparation).• Availability (quantity, quality, price, reliability).


Annual Per Capita Consumption of Livestock Products in Selected Countries, 1998 (in kilograms)

United States

Italy

China

India

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

MuttonPoultryPorkBeef


1. The Human Diet

■ The “Fast Food” diet• Growing involvement of corporate interests.• Higher sugar and fat content:

• Value added and high profits food products.• Low satiation level.

• Fast food industry:• Largest group of minimum wage workers in the US (3.5 million).• 25% of the adult population visit a fast food restaurant every single day.• Most fast food is delivered to the restaurant already frozen, canned,

dehydrated, or freeze-dried.• A fast food kitchen is merely the final stage in a vast and highly complex

system of mass production.


Number of McDonald’s per Country, 2004

31,000 McDonalds restaurants worldwide (2009), employing 1.5 million people.

12,8043,598

1,154


Main Elements of Kraft’s Portfolio

http://brands.kraftfoods.com/MiracleWhip


1. The Human Diet

Medium Coke Large Coke0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

9 12

120

137

ProfitSyrup

■ “Supersizing”• Larger containers and quantities:

• Larger package size can increase consumption up to 55%.

• 1950s: The standard Coca-Cola container was 6.5 ounces.

• 1990s: The standard Coca-Cola container was 20 ounces.

• Little cost for the supplier:• Brand name, packaging and

marketing are dominant in pricing.

• Larger quantities directly means higher profits.

• Skew the perception of normal nutritional intake.


1. The Illusion of Diversity, Ownership of the Soft Drink Industry, United StatesCoca Cola (42.8%) Pepsi (31.1%) Dr Pepper Snapple Group (15%)Coca ColaHonest TeaDesaniPoweradeNesteaGlaceauFuzeFantaMinute MaidSpriteFrescaMr. Pibb

PepsiAquafinaMountain DewSierra MistGatoradeLiptonOceansprayTropicanaDoleSobeLife Water

SnappleA&WBig RedNantucket NectarsSeven UpCrushDr PepperAcceleradeHawaiian PunchWelch’sCanada DrySunkistSchweppesOrangina


1. Consumption of Coca-Cola Beverages per Capita (Liters)

IndiaIndonesia

NigeriaChina

RussiaThailand

WorldPolandFrance

PhilippinesItaly

JapanGermany

CanadaSouth Africa

SpainArgentinaAustralia

United StatesChile

Mexico

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

200819981988


2. Nutrition Transitions

LDC

DC

Economies in transition

Developed coun-tries

0 5 10 15 20 25

Share of the Population Underweight and Overweight

OverweightUnderweight

■ Nutrition Transition• Urban and sedentary:

• People are more often away from home.

• 1970: 75% of all food expenses spent to prepare meals at home.

• 2000: 50% of all food expenses for restaurants.

• Element of time.• More woman in the labor force:

• Away from the traditional role of food preparation.

• Both members of a couple are often working.

• Less preparation time available:• 90% of the money spent on food

is spent on processed foods.


2. Evolution of the Japanese Diet (kg / capita / year)

1936 1960 1970 19950

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Oils & FatsFish & ShellfishMilk & Dairy ProductsEggsMeatWheatRiceGrains


2. Nutrition Transitions

■ Changes in the diet• Nutritional shift:

• From a diet dominated by grains and vegetables to a diet dominated by fats and sugars.

• Natural human desire for fat and sugar (energy dense foods; low satiation).• Between 1980 and 2000 calorie intake in the US has risen nearly 10% for

men and 7% for women.• Increased corporate involvement in food supply:

• Caffeine is added (75% of sodas) to provide addiction.• Massive usage of flavoring.

• Homogenization of global diets:• Global cultural diffusion.• Outcome of trade.• Fast food industry.


2. Food expenditures by families and individuals as a share of disposable personal income, 1929-2009

1929

1932

1935

1938

1941

1944

1947

1950

1953

1956

1959

1962

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%At homeAway from homeTotalShare (Away from home)


3. Malnutrition

■ Malnutrition• Imbalance (deficit or excess) in intake of nutrients. • Hunger:

• Deficiency of calorie and protein.• At least 1.2 billion people affected.

• Micronutrient deficiency:• Deficiency of vitamins and minerals.• People in developing countries eat primarily staple grain crops and do not

get enough protein.• 2.0 billion affected.

• Overconsumption:• Excess of calories.• Often accompanied by vitamins and minerals deficiencies.• At least 1.2 billion people affected.• 300 million people are obese.


Share of Underweight Children and Overweight Adults, Selected Countries, Mid 1990s

United States

Russia

UK

Germany

Colombia

Brazil

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Bangladesh

India

Ethiopia

Viet Nam

Nigeria

Indonesia

0 10 20 30 40 50 60


3. Malnutrition

■ Obesity• Significant growth of the share of adults that are overweight.• BMI (Body Mass Index):

• Weight in kilograms, divided by the square of height in meters.• 18-25: Normal.• 25-30: Overweight.• 30-40: Obese• Above 40: Morbidly obese.

• More prevalent among the poor (fat and sugar).■ “Generation XXL”

• Supersizing.• Lack of physical activities.• High fat and sugar diet.


3. Past and Projected Overweight Rates in Selected OECD Countries

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 202020%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

FranceEnglandAustriaItalyCanadaKoreaAustraliaUSA


3. Body Mass Index of Selected Countries – “Globesity”

USA

Mexico

United Kingdom

Australia

New Zealand

Hungary

Canada

Spain

Turkey

Belgium

Poland

France

Austria

Italy

Norway

Egypt

Japan

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35% of population over 25 with a BMI of 30+


3. Share of Overweight Children, Selected Countries

Indonesia (2000) 10-18Turkey (2001) 12-17

India (2002) 5-17Russia (2004) 10-18

Japan (2000) 6-14Netherlands (2003) 5-16

China (2004) 6-11South Africa (2004) 6-13

France (2006) 11-17Germany (2002) 5-17Belgium (2005) 4-15Sweden (2001) 6-13

Brazil (2002) 7-10Korea (2005) 10-19

Chile (2000) 6Israel (2007) 5-7

Australia (2007) 9-13Canada (2004) 12-17

UK England (2004) 5-17Mexico (2006) 5-17

New Zealand (2002) 5-14Italy (2006) 8-9

Spain (2000) 13-14UK Scotland (2008) 12-15United States 2004) 6-17

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40


3. Malnutrition

■ Diet-related diseases• Cardiology, endocrinology (diabetes), neurology, psychiatry,

dermatology, gastrointestinal, oncology, respirology.• 300,000 Americans die prematurely each year as a result of being

overweight.• Americans spend 40 billion per year on weight-loss products and

services.• Weight-loss products have been linked with growing obesity.• People simply eat more “fat-free” products.


B. FOOD PRODUCTION AND TRADE1. Agriculture2. Food Production3. International Food Trade4. Global Challenges


1. Agriculture

BiocapacityWeedsPestsPathogens

Floods, stormsDroughts

ConflictPoverty

TransportProcessingDistributionStoragePreparation

Geological

Climatic

Economic

Food yield

Access

End-use

Soil conditions. pH range.

Temperature and precipitation.

Labor, capital, demand.

Seeds, fertilizers, equipment.

Political and infrastructure impediments.

Making food available to consumers.


1. Length of Growing Period (LGP)

Combines temperature and moisture considerations to determine the length of time crops are able to grow.Number of days with temperatures above 5°C.Excluding periods which are too cold or too dry or both.Under rain-fed conditions.


1. Most Suitable Cereal


1. Main Agriculture Models

Subsistence farming Food mainly grown to support the family / community.Variety of plants and animals cultivated.Surpluses sold on local markets, often to pay taxes and buy simple goods.Limited level of technology and capital investment.

Commercial agriculture Mostly owned by family interests (SME).Food mainly grown for local/national markets, with some exports.Specialization of crops (economies of scale).Average level of technology and capital investment.

Corporate farming Food grown for global markets, but in many case regionally.Usage of subcontractors (commercial farmers).Emphasis on product development, branding and marketing.Specialized cash crops (coffee, bananas, cacao, sugar, etc.) for plantations.Often control several elements of the supply chain (seeds, transformation).High level of technology and capital investment.


2. Patterns of Global Food Production

Globalization Global markets.Exchange of food cultures.Long trade routes.

Non-renewable energy Food production, transformation and distribution.

Market concentration Large multinational agro-firms.Control of technical expertise (intellectual property).Retailers becoming grocers.

Monoculture Improved yield.Increased dependency on fertilizers and irrigation.Biodiversity risk.

Aquaculture Try to replace exhausted fish supplies.More rational use of oceanic resources.

Protein transition Gradual shift to lower quality sources of protein.From beef to pork and poultry.


2. World Protein Production by Source, 1950-2005

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

AquacultureSeafoodEggsPoultryMuttonPorkBeef


2. Energy Content and Food Production

Food Calories / Lbs. Energy (kWh) to Produce 1 Lbs. Energy Efficiency

Corn 390 0.43 102%

Milk 291 0.75 45%

Cheese 1824 1.67 31%

Eggs 650 4 19%

Apples 216 4.4 15%

Chicken 573 6.75 15%

Pork 480 12.6 8.5%

Beef 1176 31.5 4.3%


2. Grain Equivalent to Produce Meat (in kg)

Beef

Pork

Poultry

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8


2. Food Production

■ Shrimp farming• Thailand is the world’s largest exporter and second largest

producer.• Shrimp is one of the most consumed seafood:

• Cheap; fast growth cycle.• Can be grown using aquaculture.

• Marine shrimp:• Southeast Asia very suitable; substantial tropical coastline.• Grown in ponds along coastal areas. • Filled with saltwater pumped from the ocean.• Shrimp ready for harvest in 90 to 120 days.

• Ecological issues:• Some mangrove forests cleared.• Replace a diverse ecosystem with monoculture.• Waste water can be a source of pollution.


■ Tilapia farming


3. International Food Trade

■ International trade of agricultural goods• About 9% of global exchanges in commodities.• Nature, origin and destination of food trade:

• If the good is perishable.• Consumption habits.• The profit that can be derived from trading food products.• Highly linked to export cultures that are produced strictly to generate

income.• Third World countries are massively involved in these types of cultures.

• Overcome shortages:• Import what is lacking in the national production.• An economy needs to generate sufficient surpluses from other sectors.• Purchase enough food to overcome the national deficit.• Very few Third World countries can afford to do so.


3. Global Exports of Merchandises, 1963-2008

19631975199019942000200720080%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Manufactured products

Mineral products

Agricultural products


3. Exports of Cereals, 1960-2007 (in 1000s of tons)

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

AustraliaArgentinaFranceCanadaUnited StatesWorld


3. Grain Imports for Selected Countries, 1990, With Projected Need for Imported Grain in 2030

Bangladesh

Brazil

China

Egypt

Ethiopia & Eritrea

India

Indonesia

Iran

Mexico

Nigeria

Pakistan

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

215

20301990

Million tons


3. World Coffee Production and Trade, 2003

Coffee Production (M tons)Less than 300,000

300,001 to 600,000

More than 600,000

Coffee Trade

690,000

Imports

Exports

Share of Developing countries in global exports of agricultural

goods, 2000

65% of supply from three countries (Brazil, Columbia and Vietnam)

Tea

Pepper

Bananas

Coffee

Cocoa

Sugar

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100


3. Price of Coffee, 1980-2010

Jan-8

0

Mar-81

May-82

Jul-8

3

Sep-84

Nov-85Ja

n-87

Mar-88

May-89

Jul-9

0

Sep-91

Nov-92Ja

n-94Mar-

95

May-96

Jul-9

7

Sep-98

Nov-99Ja

n-01Mar-

02

May-03

Jul-0

4

Sep-05

Nov-06Ja

n-08Mar-

09

May-10

0

50

100

150

200

250

ICO

Com

posit

e (Ce

nts p

er p

ound

)

1) Demand constant and steadily increasing (2.5% PY).2) Supply concentration (weather risk).3) Hoarding when prices start to increase.


Coffee and Cocoa Production by Developing Countries and Imports by Developed Countries, 1961-2001 (in tons)

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000Coffee production (Developing)Cocoa production (Developing)Coffee imports (Developed)Cocoa imports (Developed)


4. Some Challenges Facing Agriculture

Economic Social EnvironmentalProduction Conversion of farmland to

other uses.Productivity of smaller operations.

Illegal workers (+ 50% in US).Aging of farmers.Land ownership.

Soil depletion.Aquifer depletion.Loss of biodiversity.Pests.Climate change.

Consumption Costs of diet related diseases.

Overconsumption and obesity.

One quarter of food discarded.Packaging and waste.

Distribution High marketing costs (80%).Industry oligopoly.

Less preparation. Long distances to markets.7 to 10 units of energy consumed to produce one unit of food energy.


4. Global Challenges

■ Maintaining agricultural output• Context of increased food demand.• Provide food for the expected population surge of 1.5 billion

people between 2000 and 2020.• Expansion of land under cultivation.• Intensified cultivation;

• Higher productivity per unit of surface. • Efforts aimed at intensified cultivation are now much more critical than only

20 years ago.• Coping with changes in diet patterns (more meat):

• One pound of feedlot beef: 2,500 gallons of water, 12 pounds of grain, energy equivalent of one gallon of gasoline.


4. Meat Production, United States and China 1961-2009 (in tons)

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

80,000,000

90,000,000

ChinaUnited States



■ Expansion potential• Reserves still exist in the developing countries for expanding

agricultural land.• Very unevenly distributed:

• Found mainly in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa.• Asian countries, especially the most densely populated, have only slight

expansion possibilities.• Demographic pressure pushes towards that strategy.• Fishing:

• Was believed that the oceans provided an unlimited supply.• “Peak fish” was reached around 1980.

• The potential of aquaculture remains uncertain:• Conversion of grain.• Waste generation.



■ Consequences• Rapidly deterioration of environmental quality.• Extended soil degradation:

• Nutrient depletion.• Erosion.• Salination.

• Dwindling availability of water resources:• Agriculture accounts for 70% of all fresh water withdrawals.• Exhaustion of aquifers.• Water pollution by fertilizers and pesticides.

• Loss of animal and plant species (biodiversity):• 20 to 30% of the world’s forest converted to agriculture.• 50% of all species are in danger of extinction.• Threatening national parks and protected areas.


C. THE GREEN REVOLUTION AND FOOD SECURITY1. The Green Revolution2. Food Security and Food Aid


1. The Green Revolution

■ Context• Strong population growth in the second half of the 20th century.• New techniques were required to increase production.• New land was becoming scarce.• Labor was difficult to add to existing agricultural systems.

■ Increasing the agricultural output• Green Revolution in the 1960s.• New varieties of wheat, corn and rice:

• 1920: 20 bushels per acre (wheat).• 1997: 120 bushels per acre (wheat).

• Enabling up to three harvests per year and increased outputs.



■ Strategy• Focused more on scientific achievements rather than on

mechanization of agriculture.• Focused on genetics and pedology (soil science).• The development of new seed strains:

• Increase agricultural production.• Make crops more resistant to diseases.• Development of hybrids.• New strains do not occur naturally.

• The improvement of inputs into soils:• Fertilizers of various types.• Enhance the productivity of previously marginal soils.• Irrigation in dry areas (40% of our food comes from irrigation).• Boost productivity in many world regions but not without costs.


1. Fertilizer Response Curve for Corn

0 40 80 120 160 20050

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

Pounds of nitrogen applied per acre

Yiel

d (b

ushe

ls/a

cre)



■ Net impact• Increased agricultural output in many areas:

• Yields were more than doubled for many cereals (wheat, maize and rice).• Increased the cost of agriculture:

• Bioengineered seeds.• Fertilizers and pesticides.• Equipment.

• Decreased agricultural employment:• Benefits accrued to the wealthier and middle class farmers who could

afford its more costly inputs.• Increased landlessness among the peasantry.

• Increased surplus population in rural areas:• Increased rural to urban migration in many developing countries.


1. Global Production of Major Grains, 1961-2009 (in M tons)

0

500000000

1000000000

1500000000

2000000000

2500000000WheatRiceMaize (Corn)


1. Global Cereal Yields, 1961-2005 (kg per hectare)

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000Maize/CornRiceWheat


1. Change in Cereal Yields, 1965-2002

NA

Decline

Up to 50%

Between 50% and 100%

Between 100 and 200%

More than 200%

Cereal Output per Hectare, 2000 (kg)

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000

Africa

East & South East Asia

Eastern Europe

North & Central America

South America

South Asia

Western Europe


1. Production and Yield of Rice in China and India, 1961-2009

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

350,000,000

400,000,000

India (tons)China (tons)China Yield (kg / hectare)India Yield (kg / hectare)


1. Production and Yield of Wheat in China and India, 1961-2009

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

0

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

India (tons)China (tons)China Yield (kg / hectare)India Yield (kg / hectare)



■ The Green Revolution and economic dependency• Agriculture is now more capital intensive:

• Requires irrigation systems, fertilisers and pesticides.• Often produced by multinational corporations. • A shift from subsistence to commercial and corporate agriculture.

• Consumes a lot of oil.• Financing agriculture:

• Increasing linkages with financial institutions.• Borrowed money to purchase inputs, fell into debt, and lost their land to

creditors when they were unable to pay.• Put the peasant in a debt cycle.

• In many areas the Green Revolution increased landlessness among the peasantry.



■ Future of agriculture?• Increase in global food trade.• Price and availability remain uncertain.• Improving the performance of plants and animals:

• Genetic engineering; transgenic crops (high protein potatoes).• Controlled ripening (enzyme); tomatoes have a shelf life of 10 to 14 days.• Herbicide and fungal resistance.• Animal diet (increased absorption).• Improved nutrition (more amino acids, vitamins and easier digestion).

• Modifying life to suit medical, industrial and energy purposes:• Disease fighters (bananas and potatoes delivering vaccine).• Biomanufacturing (colored cotton; plastic making corn; rubber making

sunflower; hydrogen producing algae.).• Multifunctionality of farms:

• Food and non-food (wildlife, water, recreation) production.


2. Food Security and Food Aid

■ Food security• State of affairs where people have access to safe and nutritious

food to maintain a healthy and active life:• Quantitatively and qualitatively adequate food (70 days).• Affordability.

■ Dimensions• Availability:

• Sufficient quantities of food of appropriate quality, supplied through domestic production or imports.

• Access.• Optimal uptake:

• Nourishment with a sustaining diet, clean water and adequate sanitation, together with health care.


2. World Grain Carryover Stocks (Days of Consumption)

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 20000

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


2. Days of Consumption of Global Grain Reserves, 2010

Rice

Wheat

Maize

Soybeans

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100


2. Global Food Insecurity

Calories per dayNA

Critical (less than 2,000)

Malnourished (2,000 - 2,700)

Sufficiently feed (2,700 - 3,000)

Well feed (more than 3,000)



■ Factors a food Insecurity• Fossil fuels dependency.• Price fluctuations (particularly for imported food).• Conflicts.• Natural disasters.

■ Groups at risk• Displaced populations.• Low income households.• Dependent people:

• Elderly.• Pregnant women.• Young children.


2. Number of Malnourished in the Developing World, 1970-2015 (in millions)

1970 1980 1990 1995 2010 2015500

600

700

800

900

1000



■ Global Hunger Index• Multidimensional tool to assess hunger:

• 1) Share of the proportion undernourished.• 2) Share of underweight children (less than 5).• 3) Infant mortality rate (less than 5).

• On a scale from 0 to 100:• Less than 4.9: low; 5 to 9.9: moderate; 10 to 19.9: serious; 20 to 29.9:

alarming; above 30: extremely alarming.


2. Changes in the Global Hunger Index, 1990-2008



■ Food Aid• Several regions have chronic

food shortages.• Several governmental and non-

governmental agencies are organizing food aid programs.

• Supply a temporary aid to the population in need.

• Generally negative impacts such as the destruction of local agricultural systems.

• Vicious circle of food aid favouring the persistence of problems in several nations.

Famine

Food Aid

Drop in food prices

Bankruptcy of Agriculture


2. Cereal Food Aid, Total and by Region, 1970-2006

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

16000000

Latin AmericaSouthern AsiaAfricaAsiaWorld

Topic 3 – Agriculture and Food

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