Theme of the Day: Sector Rotation Analysis of European and US Stocks Bond, Money and Currency Markets: Croatian 1-Year T-Bill YTM Drops to Another Record Low of 0.60% Croatian Equity Market: Sales per Employee Among CROBEX10 Companies Regional Equity Market: Gorenje to Renew Attempts of the Sale of Subsidiary Gorenje Surovina Global Equity Market: Trump's Executive Orders Send Equities Higher on Tuesday Technical Perspective - Region: HTRA ZA - Resistance @ 178,50 Technical Perspective - Global: DAX - Resistance @ 11635 IC Daily Highlights •[CROATIA] MF issued HRK 928m of T-bills, average yield at 0.6% •[SLOVENIA] Gorenje will renew attempts to sell waste management subsidiary Gorenje Surovina, according to media •[SLOVENIA] EUR 0.34m worth of Cinkarna Celje [CICG SV] shares traded as block •[BULGARIA] In Dec 2016, loans to non-gov sector amounted to 55.6% of GDP (+1.5% YoY) •[BULGARIA] Trace Group Hold's subsidiary has signed a contract as a recipient of BGN 700k grant under the Operational Programme "Innovation and competitiveness" 2014- 2020 IC Daily Newsflash InterCapital Contacts Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures IC MARKET ESPRESSO InterCapital Research 25 January 2017 Quote of the Day: „If you would be wealthy, think of saving as well as getting.” Benjamin Franklin Ivan Dražetić Money Market and Fixed Income, Dealer Phone: + 385 (0)1 4825 852 E-mail: [email protected]Kristina Pukšec Head of Fixed Income and Money Market Phone: + 385 (0)1 4825 854 E-mail: [email protected]IC.trader InterCapital.hr 1 Đivo Pulitika Analyst Phone: + 385 (0)1 4825 867 E-mail: [email protected]Croatia I Slovenia I Romania I Bulgaria I Serbia Margareta Maresić Junior Analyst Phone: + 385 (0)1 4825 857 E-mail: [email protected]Renata Čempuh Head of Front Office Phone: + 385 (0)1 4825 890 E-mail: [email protected]Danijel Delač Head of Brokerage Phone: + 385 (0)1 4825 894 E-mail: [email protected]Filip Majić Broker Phone: + 385 (0)1 4825 896 E-mail: [email protected]Marin Onorato Money Market and Fixed Income, Dealer Phone: + 385 (0)1 4343 180 E-mail: [email protected]Marcel Dimač Junior Analyst Phone: + 385 (0)1 4825 858 E-mail: [email protected]Date Announcement 20-Feb-17 Petrol - FY 2016 results 23-Feb-17 TLSG - FY 2016 (prelim.) 28-Feb-17 ATGR - Non-audit FY 2016 results 9-Mar-17 ZVTG - Non-audit FY 2016 results 10-Mar-17 GRVG - Non-audit FY 2016 results 15-Mar-17 CICG - Non-audit FY 2016 results 21-Mar-17 TLSG - Annual Report 2016 31-Mar-17 ATGR - FY 2016 results 6-Apr-17 ZVTG - FY 2016 results Upcoming Announcements Company Investment Thesis VALAMAR RIVIERA One of the largest hospitality groups Favourable accommodation positioning Strong growth potential PETROL GROUP Stable cash flow High level of debt Strong retail player ADRIS GROUP Strategic shift Strong cash position Growth potential in insurance FONDUL PROPR. Managed by Franklin Templeton Significant discount to NAV Possible privatizations of portfolio companies Top Regional Investment Stories 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 26-Jan-16 26-Apr-16 26-Jul-16 26-Oct-16 CRO Index SBITOP Index BELEX15 Index BET Index SOFIX Index Source: Bloomberg Regional indices TTM
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Theme of the Day:Sector Rotation Analysis of European and US Stocks
Bond, Money and Currency Markets:Croatian 1-Year T-Bill YTM Drops to Another Record Low of 0.60%
Croatian Equity Market:Sales per Employee Among CROBEX10 Companies
Regional Equity Market:Gorenje to Renew Attempts of the Sale of Subsidiary Gorenje Surovina
Global Equity Market:Trump's Executive Orders Send Equities Higher on Tuesday
Technical Perspective - Region:HTRA ZA - Resistance @ 178,50
•[CROATIA] MF issued HRK 928m of T-bills, average yield at 0.6%•[SLOVENIA] Gorenje will renew attempts to sell waste management subsidiary GorenjeSurovina, according to media•[SLOVENIA] EUR 0.34m worth of Cinkarna Celje [CICG SV] shares traded as block•[BULGARIA] In Dec 2016, loans to non-gov sector amounted to 55.6% of GDP (+1.5% YoY)•[BULGARIA] Trace Group Hold's subsidiary has signed a contract as a recipient of BGN 700k grant under the Operational Programme "Innovation and competitiveness" 2014-2020
IC Daily Newsflash
InterCapital Contacts
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures
IC MARKET ESPRESSOInterCapital Research
25 January 2017
Quote of the Day:„If you would be wealthy, think of saving as well as
getting.”
Benjamin Franklin
Ivan DražetićMoney Market and Fixed Income, DealerPhone: + 385 (0)1 4825 852E-mail: [email protected]
Kristina PukšecHead of Fixed Income and Money MarketPhone: + 385 (0)1 4825 854E-mail: [email protected]
Cyclicals Technology Industrials Materials Energy Cons.Staples
Health Care Utilities Financials
PX chg. HY PX chg. 1Y
Sector Rotation Analysis of European and US Stocks
Theme of the Day
IC MARKET ESPRESSO
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 2 IC.traderInterCapital.hr
Performance of European sector indices in half-year and one year
Performance of US sector indices in half-year and one year
Sector and business cycle
Late Expansion
Early Contraction
Late Contraction
Early Expansion
Middle Expansion
Cyclicals
Technology
Industrials
Materials Energy
Cons. Staples
HelathCare
Utilities
Financials
At different points of the economic cycles, stock prices of companies in some sectors will rise faster than stock prices of companies in other sectors.
The results suggest that the economies of Europe and the US are in the state between the Middle and Late expansion.
Source: Bloomberg, InterCapital
Today we are going to take a look at the European and US sector performances that can give us an insight into the current state of the European andUS economy. Because stock prices reflect expectations about the future corporate earnings, the stock market is usually a leading indicator of thebusiness cycle. The stock market usually turns down before a recession hits and begins to rise in anticipation of an economic recovery. This occursas investors anticipate the changes in the cycle and move their assets in safer industries of which they expect better results. So theoreticallyspeaking, at different points of the economic cycles, stock prices of companies in some sectors will rise faster than stock prices of companies inother sectors. The first graph shows these relationships and the order in which the various sectors should get higher returns. For calculation ofsector performances we have used STOXX sector indices for Europe and S&P 500 sector indices for the US.
When money starts to move into the industries of cyclical goods (cars, real estate etc.) this is the first sign of economic recovery after a deeprecession and suggests that the market is set for another bull run. Then follow the Technology stocks and shortly after come the stocks of the basicmaterial producers and energy industry. The peak for the market comes when capital starts to turn from energy to consumer staples. This is a signof a high inflation and that commodity prices are starting to hurt the economy. At this stage, the Fed starts to rise interest rates and the yield curvesteepens which consequently improves profitability of banks so the financials become more attractive choice for investors.
According to the results of the sector analysis, we could say that the economies of Europe and the US are in the state between the Middle and Lateexpansion. However, one should keep in mind that there are no two business cycles alike, thus the stock market does not always follow thesetypical pattern of sector rotation.
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Cyclicals Technology Industrials Materials Energy Cons.Staples
Croatian 1-Year T-Bill YTM Drops to Another Record Low of 0.60%
Bond, money and currency markets
IC MARKET ESPRESSO
InterCapital domestic bond quotes Bloomberg: INKA5 <GO>BBG User: INTERCAPITAL FI
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 3 IC.traderInterCapital.hr
Yesterday’s Croatian treasury bill auction went by with some HRK 668m maturing andbrand new HRK 928m being issued @ 0.60%. Interestingly enough, the current amountoutstanding of Croatian T-bills amounts to HRK 17.1bn, while at the last auction inJanuary 2016 it stood firmly at HRK 19.0bn, i.e. a contraction in size of HRK 2bn isevident in spite of the record high liquidity in the system. The lowest bid handed over tothe Ministry of Finance printed 0.44%, an indication that in the near future the short-termyield might go even further down. The same yield applies to 1Y implied yield on EURHRKforward points (HREUI1Y CMPN Curncy on Bloomberg). Speaking about the future, thenext auction will probably take place on January 30th, i.e. next Tuesday, since there areHRK 626m on maturity next week.
First T-bill auction in 2017 (January 3rd) printed some 0.64%, while the T-bill issued ayear ago yielded 1.35%, which reflects sharp drop of short term yields in Croatia which isnot a surprise considering yield trends in the region but also reflecting all-time highexcess liquidity in Croatian financial system. It is interesting that Croatian bond RHMF-O-17BA maturing for exactly 10 months was traded yesterday right before the auctionat 104.63 (0.64% in yield) while after the auction best bid and ask were at 0.91% and0.56%, respectively. Despite of the downward trend of short term yields, it can be seenthat the longer part of the Croatian LCY yield curve is in “stand by” mode, waiting for theissuance of new Croatian sovereign HRK bond. HRK 5.5bn bond is maturing on February8th so for the next two weeks Croatian bond market could be marked with preparationsfor the auction mentioned.
[Slovenia – Gorenje – GRVG SV] According to the media statement, Gorenje intends torestart the process of sale of Gorenje Surovina, 100% owned company specialized in wastemanagement. In 2015, Gorenje Surovina recorded revenues of EUR 60m, EBITDA of 2.4mand 330 employees. This move is a part of Gorenje's strategy to focus on core business,while this sale is marked as the sole divestment process this year.
As a reminder, in April 2015, Gorenje signed an agreement to sell a 69.3% stake (wortharound EUR 20m assuming zero net debt) to the Polish peer Elemental Holding, but thedeal was terminated year later. Afterwards, there was an unsuccessful attempt ofPanasonic takeover which further postponed the sale of the subsidiary. Now, Gorenjeplans to sell the firm to the peers form Western Europe or US which would helpmaterialize subsidiary's plans to expand on Southeastern European market.
Yesterday, the Slovenian equity market reported the turnover of 1m, while SBI TOP roseby 0.38% with Triglav (+1.64%) and Telekom Slovenije (+1.12%) being the winners of theday among big SBI TOP constituents. The Bucharest stock exchange was closed yesterday,but Serbian BELEX continued its 3-day plunge decreasing yesterday by 0.28% mainly dueto NIS (-0.67%) which was not offset by Komercijalna Banka (+0.54%). In Sofia, SOFIXcontinued its anemic performance (+0.02%) but notable day from Monbat (-2%) andNeochim (+1.23%).
Gorenje to Renew Attempts of the Sale of Subsidiary Gorenje Surovina
Regional Equity Market
IC MARKET ESPRESSO
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 4
Since there were no major news on the Croatian equity market, we decided to broader ouryesterday’s overview of the number of employees by putting it into the relation with thecompany’s sales. For this purpose we have used sales results and average number ofemployees on the last 12-month basis of CROBEX10 companies. Yet again we have topoint out that this should be seen just as an overview, as the industries in which thesecompanies operate have different level of work intensity and thus the results cannot bedirectly compared.
Compared to the average number of employees in last 12 months, HT had the highestsales per employee (EUR 193k). Next from the top are as follows: Atlantic Group (EUR131k), Ledo (EUR 126k), Koncar (EUR 101k) which is the only one with the values aboveEUR 100k (note that we only have the numbers for full time employees). Somewhat lowernumbers can be seen at Adris Group (EUR 95k), Podravka (EUR 87k) and Ericsson NikolaTesla (EUR 72k), Valamar Riviera (EUR 64k) and finally Imperial (recently acquired byValamar Riviera) and Kras (both with EUR 54k).
Sales per Employee Among CROBEX10 Companies
Croatian Equity Market
Index fundamentals
Daily market snapshot
Volume: EUR 1.34m
* ATPLRA ZA and ADRSPA ZA are excluded from CROBEX multiples and ratios due to large one-off event / Market snapshot includes only main index components
U.S. equities rose on Tuesday, with materials spiking more than 2.5% on the back of moreexecutive orders from President Donald Trump.
The S&P 500 rose about 0.66%, notching intraday and closing records, with materialsleading eight sectors higher. Copper futures for March delivery rose more than 2%.platinum and palladium futures also advanced more than 2%.
President Trump signed executive orders that will make it easier for TransCanada tobuild the Keystone XL pipeline and for Energy Transfer Partners to build the finaluncompleted portion of the Dakota Access pipeline.
Entering Tuesday, the broader U.S. stock market has traded in a narrow range for over amonth, as investors wait for more details about Trump's political agenda, especiallycorporate tax cuts, deregulation and government spending. Equities had rallied sharplyfollowing the election on hopes that Trump's proposals would become law.
Trump's Executive Orders Send Equities Higher on Tuesday
Global Equity Market
IC MARKET ESPRESSO
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 5 IC.traderInterCapital.hr
STOXX EUROPE 600 SECTOR PERFORMANCE % Day % YTD % 1M % 3M % 6M % 1Y % Day % YTD % 1M % 3M % 6M % 1Y
Today we are looking @ daily HTRA graph. After we saw test of resistance that provideshigh from 23/12/2013 @ 178,50 it goes downwards. First support provides high from14/04/2015 @ 170 + SMAVG50. RSI is in upward trend and is above 50 points.
HTRA ZA - Resistance @ 178,50 (daily chart)
Technical Perspective - Region
Today we are looking @ daily DAX index. It is testing resistance that provides high from23/06/2015 @ 11635. Next resistance provides psychological level @ 12000. Keyresistance provides high from 2015 @ 12390. RSI bounce from overbought but is stillabove 50 points.
DAX - Resistance @ 11635 (daily chart)
Technical Perspective - Global
We would be buyers around 168
Trading Suggestion:
We would be buyers in case resistance @ 11635 gets breached
Trading Suggestion:
Technical Targets:12390… high 2015
12000… psychological level11635… high 23/06/2015
11582… last11430… high 30/11/2015
11209… SMAVG5010802… high 15/08/2016
Technical Targets:179,50… high 2016
173,65… last170,00… high 2015169,46… SMAVG50
IC MARKET ESPRESSO
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 6 IC.traderInterCapital.hr
Regional Equity Market; Fundamentals of Selected Companies
IC MARKET ESPRESSO
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 7 IC.traderInterCapital.hr
Regional Equity Market; Fundamentals of Selected Companies
IC MARKET ESPRESSO
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 9 IC.traderInterCapital.hr
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 10 IC.traderInterCapital.hr
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 11
InterCapital is an independent investment company established in 2001, and is one of the leading companies fortrading of financial instruments, asset management and investment banking services in the Republic of Croatia.Our mission is to further advance the ongoing development of our domestic capital markets through the introduction and implementation of innovative financialproducts, know-how and sophisticated international standards in financial mediation services. In doing so, we aim to provide superior returns to our diverse customerbase. Experience, knowledge, dedication, reputation and ethical conduct are at the heart of our business. These characteristics are uncompromisingly embedded in eachof our employees, ultimately guaranteeing professional quality and dedication in our approach to clients, our product portfolio and overall mission achievement.The InterCapital Group is headquartered in Zagreb and employs more than 40 individuals.
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IC MARKET ESPRESSO
„IC Market Espresso“ is a Recommendation that proposes investment strategy in terms of one or more financial instruments or the Issuer offinancial instruments, including opinions about current or future value and price of these instruments. Market Espresso is published every workday.The first issue was published on 2 January 2008, while the technical analysis of Croatian equities and index was introduced on 1 September 2008.Information in this report is intended for informative purposes only and does not represent the solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments orparticipate in any particular trading strategy.
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•Strong buy - equities with expected absolute revenue of more than 20% in the monitored time period•Buy - equities with expected absolute return of 10%-20% in the monitored time period•Hold - equities with expected absolute return of -10% to 10% in the monitored time period•Sell - equities with expected absolute return below -10% in the monitored time period•Under review - an issuer might be placed Under Review due to new information which is not included in the analysis.
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