Tony McMichael, AO Emeritus Professor (Population Health) National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health The Australian National University [email protected]Climate Change and Human Population Health: Past, Present, Future Department of Defence, June 2013
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Tony McMichael, AO Emeritus Professor (Population Health) National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health The Australian National University [email protected].
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Tony McMichael, AOEmeritus Professor (Population Health)
National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health The Australian National University
CLIMATE CHANGE to 2050: MODELLED CHANGES IN CEREAL GRAIN YIELDS (due to temperature and soil moisture)
Poor Countries are Projected to Fare Worst
eg. dengue, malaria;Ross River virus, Lyme disease
eg. nutrition-related immune function
Climate Change: Diverse Influence Paths on Infectious Diseases
Social-demographic influences
NCEPH/CSIRO/BoM/UnivOtago, 2003
Dengue Fever: Estimated ‘receptive’ region for Ae. aegypti
mosquito vector, under alternative climate-change
scenarios for 2050
Risk region for mediumemissions scenario, 2050
Darwin
Katherine
Cairns
Mackay
Rockhampton
Townsville
Port Hedland
Broome..
....
..Carnarvon.
Katherine
Cairns
Mackay
Rockhampton
Townsville
Port Hedland
Broome..
...
..Brisbane.
Current risk region for dengue transmission
Darwin
Katherine
Cairns
Mackay
Rockhampton
Townsville
Port Hedland
Broome..
....
..Carnarvon. Risk region for high
emissions scenario, 2050
Climate Change Influences on Health in Australia
Already apparent: baseline risks amplified by underlying climate change Uptrend in av annual no. of heat-days deaths, hospitalisations
Increases in no./severity bushfires injury/death, resp. hazard, mental health
Severe flooding (due to increased sea-surface temp, increased rainfall?)
Probable current health impacts: but not yet clearly identified Rising rates of some food-borne enteritis (diarrhoeal) diseases Altered (urban) air quality: ozone formation, aeroallergens Mental health impacts, esp. in some (drying) rural regions: e.g. MD Basin
Predicted future health impacts More extreme weather events trauma/deaths, infectious disease, depression Water shortages, affecting food yields, domestic hygiene Mosquito-borne infections – shifts in range and seasonality:
Dengue, Ross River virus, Barmah Forest virus, Japanese encephalitis, etc. Increased thermal stress at work, esp. in outdoor workers and under-ventilated
factories: accidents/injuries, organ damage; reduced work capacity