Engineers Ireland Annual Conference 4 th May 2017 Tullamore Tomorrow’s Energy Scenarios
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Engineers Ireland Annual Conference
4th May 2017
Tullamore
Tomorrow’s Energy Scenarios
Define a project and
identify possible solutions
How do we plan the transmission system?
How will the
usage of the grid
evolve over
time?
Is the electricity system of
today able to handle the
usage of tomorrow?
If any risks or issues are
identified then we need to
understand the reasons
The future remains uncertain…
Economic Uncertainty
Societal Uncertainty
Technology Uncertainty
Political Uncertainty
…and we need to capture that uncertainty
Market
Generation
Demand
Policy
• Scenario Planning is a well proven method for accepting uncertainty
Economic
Societal
Technology
Political
How we plan the system
Tomorrow’s Energy Scenarios
• National and International Policies
on Energy and Climate Change
• National and International
Economic Developments
• Technology Evolution and
Adoption
• Other National and International
Influences Environmental and Planning Policies
Job Creation and Industrial Development Policies
EU and International Policies, Regulations and
Influences
Transport Policies
What factors influence future uncertainties?
2030 Energy and Emissions Targets – EU Policy
• The EU 2030 target is a 40% GHG
reduction on 1990 levels.
• The EU aims to reduce GHG emissions in
the ETS sector by 43% and in the non-
ETS sector by 30% compared to 2005
levels
• Each member state has been given
provisional country specific targets for
the Non-ETS sector in order to meet the
overall EU goal of 30% reduction.
• There are currently no member state
specific targets for the ETS sector
2030 Emissions Targets – Our assumptions
• In the absence of a target our scenarios assumes the EU ETS target of 43% reduction against 2005 levels applies to Ireland
• Today’s carbon dioxide output from the power generation sector is about 11 Mt
• Applying the 43% reduction target gives us “limits” for CO2 production from the electricity sector of 8.7 Mt
• In our publication where we talk about achieving targets we used this value as the benchmark
– In three scenarios we achieve this or better
– In one we do not
• Getting input from experts is fundamental to the development of scenarios
Stakeholder Engagement
Tomorrow’s Energy Scenarios
• Tomorrow’s Energy Scenarios
2017 Consultation document
published in February
• Sets out four scenarios from
2020 – 2040
• This publication covers
scenarios for Ireland only
• Scenarios will be revised every
two years
Steady Evolution
• Steady economic growth
• Steady growth in renewable electricity
generation
• Household adopt new technologies
• Consumers more energy aware
• Increase in energy efficiency in homes
& businesses
• Consumers gradually use electric
vehicles & heat pumps
• Electricity powers a larger proportion
of transportation and heating
Low Carbon Living
• High economic growth
• Creation and rollout of new
technologies for low carbon electricity
generation
• Strong public demand to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions
• High carbon prices and incentives for
renewables
• High level of renewable generation on
the grid
• Clean energy & improvements to
broadband and transport drive growth
in large data centres
Slow Change
• Slow economic growth
• Investment in low risk technologies
only
• Slow adoption of technology by
households
• Little change in electricity generation
• Avoidance of risk
• Growth in demand coming from data
centres only
• Level of investment slows down
significantly after 2025
Consumer Action
• Strong economy
• High levels of consumer spending
• Public want to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions
• Consumers limit energy use
• Consumers generate their own energy
• Community led energy projects
• Rapid adoption of electric vehicles &
heat pumps
Tomorrow’s Energy Scenarios – 2030 Summary
VariablesSteady
Evolution
Low Carbon
LivingSlow Change
Consumer
Action
Total Demand (TWh) 36.3 43.9 35.2 42.5
Total Data Centre Capacity (MVA) 1,100 1,950 850 1,675
Total Electric Vehicles 168,000 246,000 67,000 280,000
Total % of Vehicles which are
Electric8% 11% 3% 13%
Wind (Onshore) 5,140 6,000 4,640 5,380
Wind (Offshore) 280 2,000 25 600
Coal 0 0 860 0
Gas 4,660 4,210 3,760 4,660
Peat 0 0 0 0
Fossil Fuel Generation Total 4,930 4,360 4,980 4,810
Tomorrow’s
Energy
Scenarios
2017
Six week
consultation with
industry & public
NOW CLOSED
Refine scenarios
based on feedback
Tomorrow’s Energy Scenarios Consultation
Feb- April
2017
May-June
2017
Summer
2017
Consultation Responses - Initial View
• We need to revise our estimates for
offshore wind in a number of
scenarios where it is likely to have
been underestimated
• Electric Vehicle uptake should have a
wider range than the current
estimates of 3-11% of vehicle fleet
• Battery storage needs to be brought
out more in the scenarios
• Are our Moneypoint assumptions
wide-ranging enough?
Next Steps
• Finalise and Publish the 2017
Scenarios
• Carry out technical assessment of
today’s grid under each scenario
• Identify any needs and associated
drivers
• Publish “Tomorrow's Energy
Scenarios – System Needs
Assessment” end 2017
Thank You
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