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Tomorrow Today Safe-Driving Technologies of
Tomorrow, Here Today
Co-Sponsored by the
CPCU Personal Lines Interest Group
& the Information Technology Interest Group
• Learn about technologies that are changing the driving experience—
from assisting drivers to eliminating the need for them altogether
• Explore regulatory and insurance industry changes and challenges
resulting from these new capabilities
• Further meet customer expectations by gaining perspective from a
panel of experts on adopting and using new technologies
Learning Objectives
Opening Remarks
Need Section/Presentation Title
Kim Hazelbaker
Senior Vice President, Highway Loss Data Institute
Autonomous Vehicles in California
Bernard C. Soriano, PhD
Deputy Director, California DMV
Issues Raised by Autonomous Cars
Patrick B. Woods, FCAS, MAAA
Assistant Vice President & Actuary, Personal Automobile Actuarial,
ISO Insurance Programs and Analytic Services
Open Forum
Agenda
Crash Avoidance
Technologies Kim Hazelbaker
Senior Vice President, Highway Loss Data
Institute
www.hldi.org
www.hldi.org
The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety
•Founded in 1959
•An independent, nonprofit, scientific, and educational organization
•Dedicated to reducing the losses — deaths, injuries, and property
damage — from crashes on the nation's highways
The Highway Loss Data Institute •Founded in 1972
•Shares and supports this mission through scientific studies of insurance
data and by publishing insurance loss results by vehicle make and model.
Both organizations are wholly supported by auto insurers.
www.hldi.org
Member groups • Acceptance Insurance
• ACE Private Risk Services
• Affirmative Insurance
• Alfa Alliance Insurance Corporation
• Alfa Insurance
• Allstate Insurance Group
• American Family Mutual Insurance
• American National Property and Casualty Company
• Ameriprise Auto & Home
• Amica Mutual Insurance Company
• Auto Club Enterprises
• Auto Club Group
• Auto-Owners Insurance
• Aviva Insurance
• Bankers Insurance Group
• Bituminous Insurance Companies
• California Casualty Group
• California State Auto Group
• Capital Insurance Group
• Chubb & Son
• Colorado Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company
• Commonwealth Mutual Insurance Company of America
• Concord Group Insurance Companies
• COUNTRY Financial
• CSAA Insurance Group
• CSE Insurance Group
• Direct General Corporation
• Erie Insurance Group
• Esurance
• Farm Bureau Financial Services
• Farm Bureau Insurance of Michigan
• Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company of Idaho
• Farmers Insurance Group of Companies
• Farmers Mutual Hail Insurance Company of Iowa
• Farmers Mutual of Nebraska
• Florida Farm Bureau Insurance Companies
• Frankenmuth Insurance
• Freestone Insurance Company
• Gainsco Insurance
• GEICO Group
• The General Insurance
• Georgia Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company
• Goodville Mutual Casualty Company
• Grange Insurance
• Hallmark Insurance Company
• Hanover Insurance Group
• The Hartford
• Haulers Insurance Company, Inc.
• Horace Mann Insurance Companies
• ICW Group
• Imperial Fire & Casualty Insurance Company
• Indiana Farmers Mutual Insurance Company
• Infinity Property & Casualty
• Kemper Preferred
• Kentucky Farm Bureau Insurance
• Liberty Mutual Insurance Company
• Louisiana Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company
• Maryland Automobile Insurance Fund
• Mercury Insurance Group
• MetLife Auto & Home
• Michigan Millers Mutual Insurance Company
• MiddleOak
• Mississippi Farm Bureau Casualty Insurance Company
• MMG Insurance
• Mutual of Enumclaw Insurance Company
• Nationwide
• New Jersey Manufacturers Insurance Group
• Nodak Mutual Insurance Company
• Norfolk & Dedham Group
• North Carolina Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company
• Northern Neck Insurance Company
• Ohio Mutual Insurance Group
• Old American County Mutual Fire Insurance
• Old American Indemnity Company
• Oregon Mutual Insurance
• Pekin Insurance
• PEMCO Insurance
• Plymouth Rock Assurance
• Progressive Corporation
• QBE
• The Responsive Auto Insurance Company
• Rockingham Group
• Safe Auto Insurance
• Safeco Insurance
• Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Company
• SECURA Insurance
• Sentry Insurance
• Shelter Insurance
• Sompo Japan Insurance Company of America
• South Carolina Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company
• Southern Farm Bureau Casualty Insurance Company
• State Auto Insurance Companies
• State Farm
• Tennessee Farmers Mutual Insurance Company
• Texas Farm Bureau Insurance Companies
• Tower Group Companies
• The Travelers Companies
• United Educators
• USAA
• Utica National Insurance Group
• Virginia Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance
• West Bend Mutual Insurance Company
• Western National
• Westfield Insurance
• XL Group plc
• Zurich North America
www.hldi.org
50th Anniversary
www.hldi.org
www.hldi.org
Forty Mile per Hour Frontal Offset Crash Test
1959 Chevrolet Bel Air and 2009 Chevrolet Malibu
www.hldi.org
www.hldi.org
Size of HLDI Passenger Vehicle Database Number of unique VINs in files, September 2014
Model Year Number of Vehicles
2005 16,045,166
2006 15,097,690
2007 14,819,925
2008 13,089,841
2009 8,559,498
2010 9,847,982
2011 10,358,232
2012 11,062,716
2013 11,253,485
2014 7,225,990
Total 117,360,525
www.hldi.org
Crash Avoidance Systems
www.hldi.org
www.hldi.org
Driver assistance features
Radar, LIDAR, ultrasonic, infrared, cameras, GPS
www.hldi.org
Mercedes Advertisement
www.hldi.org
www.hldi.org www.hldi.org
www.hldi.org
PDL Claim Frequencies for 2010-12 Volvo XC60 With
City Safety vs. Other 2009-12 Midsize Luxury SUVs
0
2
4
6
8
10Calendar years 2009-12
www.hldi.org
Volvo XC60 City Safety Updated Results
Vs. Other Volvos Claim
Frequency
Claim
Severity
Overall
Losses
Property damage
liability -8.3% -5.2% -1.9% $206 $291 $373 $0 $4 $7
Bodily injury -41.5% -33.7% -
25.0%
Collision -13.3% -11.4% -9.3% -$261 -$148 -$38 -$50 -$40 -$30
Vs. Other Midsize
Luxury SUVs
Claim
Frequency
Claim
Severity
Overall
Losses
Property damage
liability -16.0% -14.6% -13.1% -$89 -$42 $4 -$17 -$15 -$12
Bodily injury -37.6% -33.3% -28.7%
Collision -21.1% -20.2% -19.3% -$512 -$450 -$389 -$98 -$92 -$86
www.hldi.org
Collision Avoidance Technology
Acura
Adaptive headlights, collision mitigation braking
system (forward collision warning with auto brake
and adaptive cruise control) (blind spot warning)
Buick Lane departure warning, rear park assist
Infiniti
Adaptive headlights, adaptive cruise control,
adaptive cruise control with full stop, around view
monitor, brake assist, lane departure warning, lane
departure prevention, rear camera (advance brake
assist, low speed follow, forward collision warning
with auto brake)
www.hldi.org
Collision Avoidance Technology
Mazda Adaptive headlights, blind spot warning, rear
camera
Mercedes Benz
Adaptive headlights, adaptive head beam assist,
attention assist, active blind spot assist, blind spot
warning, distronic, DistronicPlus PreSafe brake,
lane departure warning, night view assist, night
view assist with pedestrian protection, ParkTronic,
rear camera (Distronic Plus, lane departure
prevention, park assist, park guidance)
Volvo
Adaptive headlights, blind spot warning, park
assist, rear camera (adaptive cruise control, lane
departure warning, forward collision warning with
auto brake)
www.hldi.org
Collision Avoidance Research Project Methods
Covariates
Calendar year, vehicle series and model year,
rated driver age, rated driver gender, rated driver marital status,
rated driver risk, state, registered vehicle density
Model years 2000-11
Calendar years 1999-2011
Modeling
approach
Only vehicles with features included, each feature
treated as a variable, model run for each coverage type
for frequency and severity
www.hldi.org
Forward Collision Warning
www.hldi.org
www.hldi.org www.hldi.org
www.hldi.org
Property Damage Liability Losses
for Forward Collision Warning
With Feature vs. Without
Claim
Frequency
Claim
Severity
Overall
Losses
Mercedes
with adaptive cruise
control
-12.0% -7.1% -1.9% -$100 $58 $225 -$10 -$4 $2
Volvo
with adaptive cruise
control
-21.9% -7.1% 10.6% -$201 $266 $821 -$18 $2 $27
www.hldi.org
Forward Collision Warning
With Auto Brake
www.hldi.org
www.hldi.org
Property Damage Liability Losses
for Forward Collision Warning With Auto Brake
With Feature vs. Without
Claim
Frequency
Claim
Severity
Overall
Losses
Acura
with adaptive cruise
control
-25.9% -14.2% -0.6% -$323 $69 $523 -$24 -$10 $7
Mercedes
with adaptive cruise
control
-23.3% -14.3% -4.2% -$191 $126 $479 -$19 -$8 $4
Volvo
with lane departure
warning
& driver alert
-25.1% -10.0% 8.2% -$501 -$83 $415 -$29 -$11 $11
www.hldi.org
Adaptive Headlights
www.hldi.org
www.hldi.org www.hldi.org
www.hldi.org
Collision Losses for Adaptive Headlights
With Feature vs. Without
Claim
Frequency
Claim
Severity
Overall
Losses
Acura -11.9% -2.0% 9.0% -$466 $12 $556 -$40 -$4 $38
Mazda -12.0% -6.4% -0.6% -$132 $126 $403 -$33 -$9 $17
Mercedes -1.9% -0.1% 1.8% $628 $758 $891 $42 $54 $67
Volvo -4.2% -0.7% 2.9% -$28 $149 $333 -$7 $8 $24
www.hldi.org
www.hldi.org
Property Damage Liability Losses
for Adaptive Headlights
With Feature vs. Without
Claim
Frequency
Claim
Severity
Overall
Losses
Acura -20.3% -6.3% 10.3% -$418 -$9 $473 -$20 -$5 $14
Mazda -18.3% -10.1% -1.2% -$574 -$381 -$170 -$33 -$23 -$12
Mercedes -12.7% -10.0% -7.2% $21 $112 $207 -$8 -$5 -$2
Volvo -13.4% -9.0% -4.4% -$152 -$29 $101 -$14 -$9 -$3
www.hldi.org
Lane Departure Warning
www.hldi.org
www.hldi.org www.hldi.org
www.hldi.org
Collision Losses for Lane Departure Warning
With Feature vs. Without
Claim
Frequency
Claim
Severity
Overall
Losses
Buick
with side view
assist
-1.1% 4.2% 9.7% -$212 -$34 $154 -$10 $6 $24
Mercedes -8.5% 5.6% 22.0% $3 $1,010 $2,199 $1 $99 $222
Volvo
with forward
collision with auto
brake
& driver alert
-13.8% -2.9% 9.3% -$700 -$179 $417 -$62 -$19 $32
www.hldi.org
www.hldi.org
Property Damage Liability Losses
for Lane Departure Warning
With Feature vs. Without
Claim
Frequency
Claim
Severity
Overall
Losses
Buick
with side view
assist
-1.3% 7.2% 16.4% -$138 $46 $247 -$2 $6 $15
Mercedes -14.6% 10.9% 43.9% -$548 $150 $1,057 -$16 $13 $55
Volvo
with forward
collision with auto
brake
& driver alert
-25.1% -10.0% 8.2% -$501 -$83 $415 -$29 -$11 $11
www.hldi.org
Availability of Features
for Automobiles
www.hldi.org
New Vehicle Series With Electronic Stability Control By model year
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
standard optional not available
www.hldi.org
Registered Vehicles With Electronic Stability Control By calendar year
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
standard optional not available
www.hldi.org
www.hldi.org
Registered Vehicles With Electronic Stability
Control, Actual and Predicted
By calendar year
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1995 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
predicted
actual
previous predicted
www.hldi.org
2020
2030
2040
2050
forward collisionwarning
rear parkingsensors
lane departurewarning
adaptiveheadlights
blind spotwarning
rearcamera
without mandate
2015 mandate
Calendar Year Features Reach 95 Percent of
Registered Vehicle Fleet With and Without Mandate
www.hldi.org
First public release of
IIHS crash avoidance ratings
September 27, 2013
www.hldi.org
Autobrake Performance Tests 25 km/h
Subaru
Outback with
EyeSight
Mercedes-Benz
E350 with
Distronic Plus
www.hldi.org
www.hldi.org
Testing Benefits of Autobrake
25 mph
12 mph www.hldi.org
761 Broadcasts Attracted 60 Million Viewers
www.hldi.org
Subaru Advertisement
www.hldi.org
Google’s Driverless Car
www.hldi.org
www.hldi.org
Autonomous Vehicles in
California
Bernard C. Soriano, PhD
Deputy Director, California DMV
California at a glance
•Approximately 38 million people
•Over 25 million driver licenses and identification cards
•Over 32 million actively registered vehicles
•Over 73 percent commute to work alone
•Over 172 thousand public road miles
•Over 323 billion vehicle miles travelled per year
•Variety of terrain and weather conditions
California Legislation – Senate Bill 1298
As soon as practicable, but no later than Jan. 1, 2015, DMV must adopt
regulations setting forth requirements for:
• Manufacturers’ testing of autonomous vehicles on public roadways
• Operation of autonomous vehicles on public roadways
• Public workshops and meetings
• Nissan • Volvo • VW Group
• Chrysler • GM • Toyota
• Honda • Google • Bosch
• Autonomous vehicle technology advancing quickly
• Adoption by the public will not be dependent on technology
– Human factors (HMI)
• Potential traffic safety improvements are immense
– Over 30,000 traffic fatalities per year
– Almost all (95 percent) of traffic fatalities were the result of human error
– In over 35 percent of traffic fatalities, the brakes were not applied
• Government and industry need to work collaboratively
Definition of Autonomous
NHTSA defines 4 levels of autonomous vehicles
• Level 0 – No automation
• Level 1 – Function specific automation
• Level 2 – Combined function automation
• Level 3 – Limited self-driving automation
• Level 4 – Full self-driving automation
Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) has similar definitions, although 5 levels
Examples
Examples, continued
• Philosophical differences
• Driver is essential to vehicle operations
• Design systems to maintain situational awareness
• Adequate notification time
• Human is the backup system
• Vehicle operations fully autonomous
• No need for steering or braking controls
• Redundancy and fail-safe built into system
• Technological differences
– Self-contained processing
– Map dependency and cloud computing
– Vehicle to vehicle communication (v2v)
• NHTSA decision on DSRC capability
– Vehicle to infrastructure communication (v2i)
• Other forms of autonomous vehicles
• Platooning • Low speed shuttles
• NHTSA Level 2 autonomous vehicles available now now _
– 2014 Mercedes S class
– 2014 BMW i3, 5-Series
– 2014 Cadillac XTS
• NHTSA Level 3 autonomous vehicles being tested now
– Private test tracks
– Human reaction testing
– Situational awareness
• No industry agreement on NHTSA Level 4 timetable
– Dependence on DSRC?
– Self-parking
• Volvo
No fatalities in a Volvo vehicle by the year 2020
– Collision avoidance systems
– Commercial trucking industry
– Road train or platooning
– Gothenburg, Sweden
• Nissan
• Autonomous car will be available for sale before 2020
• Price will be $1,000 - $2,000 above current prices
• Audi A-7 demo at the 2013 CES
• Volvo
No fatalities in a Volvo vehicle by the year 2020
– Collision avoidance systems
– Commercial trucking industry
– Road train or platooning
– Gothenburg, Sweden
• Nissan
• Autonomous car will be available for sale before 2020
• Price will be $1,000 - $2,000 above current prices
• Audi A-7 demo at the 2013 CES
• Definition • Usage
• Safety • Vehicle Code
• Liability • Visibility
• Privacy • Standardization
• Security • Insurance
• Licensing • Technical constraints
• Reliability • Messaging
• Infrastructure • Public perception
Challenges
Statewide Steering Committee
– California State Transportation Agency
– California Department of Insurance
– California Highway Patrol
– California Office of Traffic Safety
– California Department of Transportation
– California Department of Motor Vehicles
– National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
Regulatory Package 1: Manufacturers’ Testing
• Two pre-notice workshops
• 45-day public comment period
• Formal public hearing
• 15-day public comment period
• Regulations approved and adopted in May 2014
• Effective on September 16, 2014
Testing Regulations Summary
– $5 million in insurance, bond, or self-insurance
– Test drivers: no DUI, not an at-fault driver, and no more than 1
point
– Successful completion of test driver training program
– Employee, contractor, or designee
– Seated in driver seat during testing
– Report any accident within 10 days
– Report unanticipated disengagement of autonomous technology
– Testing permit valid for one year
– Vehicles excluded from testing:
• Commercial vehicles
• > 10,000 lbs GVW
• Motorcycles
Regulatory Package 2: Operation on California Public Roadways
•Contract with UC Berkeley for recommendations
•March 11 pre-notice workshop
•Available for 45-day public comment period shortly
•Formal public hearing
•Assignment of violations
•Definition of operator
•Operational and deployment restrictions
•Operator license requirements
•Other feasible regulations
•Target date of December 2014
– Expected to be available for public comment in July
– Public hearing after 45 days
– Specify whether vehicle is capable of operating without a driver
inside
– Disclose the designed areas of operation
– Submission of data from testing program
– Functional safety
– Sensor data recorded 30 sec prior to collision
– Disclosure of recorded data not necessary for safe operation of
vehicle
– $5 million in bond, or self-insurance
– NHTSA Level 4 vehicles issued distinct special license plate
– No special driver license requirement
Operational Regulations Summary (DRAFT)
Outreach Efforts
•Meetings with manufacturers, suppliers, and industry
•Presentations to government and interested parties
•Social media
– LinkedIn group
– Reddit discussion
– Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube
•DMV website and blog
•Traditional media
•Industry meetings
•Working groups across jurisdictions
Issues Raised by
Autonomous Cars
Patrick B. Woods, FCAS, MAAA Assistant Vice President & Actuary, Personal
Automobile Actuarial
ISO Insurance Programs and Analytic Services
• Cost of technology and infrastructure
• Interaction with existing vehicles on road
• Legal environment for autonomous cars and licensing
• Who owns data
• Safety and Security
Environmental Issues
•What is being insured?
•Rating/Underwriting
•Claims Settlement
•Safety
Insurance Issues
• Liability based on your actions
• How you manage conditions
• How attentive you are
• How you maintain your vehicle
• Proximate cause of accidents
• Other drivers actions
Liability Insurance Today
• Driver, driver characteristics and attributes
• Driving record —accidents and violations/UBI
• Where does driver drive/garage car
• What kind of vehicle
Rating/Underwriting the Risk Today
• Are AV’s safe—how do we know?
• Liability—driver, manufacturer, software provider?
• Given a liability scenario--rate the policy
• Hacking risk/ software updates
• Cost of technology/ the driving environment
New Problems and Issues
• How do you test the vehicle to be sure it is safe?
• Number of accident free miles
• Testing the software
Are These Things Safe?
• Tort or No-fault
• Product liability system
• Rules of product liability are exacting
• Alternative liability systems
• Vaccine liability treatment
The Liability Issue—Who Pays?
• Who or what is being insured
• Full time/part time autonomous system
• How good is the software/hardware
• The driver and his driving experience
• The vehicle itself
Rating the Risk
• Hacking/software updates
• Cost of technology
• Who owns data
• Mixture of vehicle on the road
• Anticipated frequency
Other Issues
For additional information contact
Patrick B. Woods
Insurance Services Office
(201) 469-2679
Issues Raised by Autonomous Vehicles
Open Forum
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