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EduNecessity, Possibility & Difficulty.
Kickthe Fossil Fuel Habit
Cleantech Lead Advisor, MaRS Discovery DistrictEntrepreneur and InvestorAuthor, Kick the Fossil Fuel Habit
www.tomrand.net
Tom RandP.Eng., Ph.D.
Economic PossibilitiesEconomic Developers Association of Canada
Peterborough, October 3rd, 2011
© 2001 Eco Ten Publishing
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The Low Carbon Economy…
is Necessary & Urgent
“climate change … could alter the way we live in the most fundamental way … It is life itself that we battle to
preserve.“Margaret Thatcher, to the UN General Assembly, 1989.
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The Low Carbon Economy…
is Necessary & Urgent
“Business-as-usual commits us to 2 degrees of warming by 2021.“
Best-case scenarios now lead to 4 degrees plus …
Which is global chaos.
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The Low Carbon Economy…
is Possible
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The Low Carbon Economy…
Will be Difficult
“The nation that leads the world in creating a new clean energy economy will be the nation that leads the 21st century
global economy.“Barak Obama, 2009
... But also opportunity
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Necessity: Climate ChangeEconomic, Moral, Existential Opportunity
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Necessity: Climate ChangeThe “Skeptics”
DELAY
Bjorn Lomborg
WiliamNordhaus
AGNOSTIC/SCOFFERS
Margaret Wente
MichaelEconomide
s
DENIERS
“Conspiracy”
“Junk”
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Necessity: Climate Change
DELAY
Bjorn Lomborg
WiliamNordhaus
AGNOSTIC/SCOFFERS
Margaret Wente
MichaelEconomide
s
DENIERS
“Conspiracy”
“Junk”
GET ON WITH IT !
SirNicholas Stern
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Necessity: Pace of Cleantech Adoption
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Possibility: Successful companies …
Commodity-based supply chains.
Scalable, simple manufacturing processes.
Low technical risk; financeable.
Leverage existing infrastructure.
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Difficulty: Scale & Speed
Lab to Prototype: Technical Viability
Commercial Scale: Economic Viability
Infrastructure Scale: Displace Fossil Fuels ?What do
you get for
$1 Trillion
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Cleantech Economics:Market Push vs Market Pull
Technology
MaRS, Venture Capital,Entrepreneurs
POLICY: Green Energy Act
SDTC, etc.
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Risk = Probability (High) * Consequences (Severe)
Create Global Opportunities
Lowering Risk: Smart Policy
Ensure Long-Term Growth
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EFFICIENCY
More GDP ($)-
Less Energy
CLEAN ENERGY
-Less
Carbon
More Energy
Necessity: Lower carbon emissions
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Possibility:Clean Energy
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Kick It:BioFuels
“There’s just not enough fresh water and arable land to produce enough biofuels to replace the
petroleum”Dennis Bushnell, chief scientist, NASA Langley Research
BioFuels
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Upper limit:
Replace approx 1/3 of oil supply.
BioFuels
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20,000 miles of high-speed track and trains, and enough transit to offset 7.5 billion car trips.
Efficiency:
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Efficiency:Buildings – Low Hanging Fruit
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Efficiency:Buildings – Low Hanging Fruit
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EfficiencyBuildings – Low Hanging Fruit
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Technology
Geo-exchange
Solar Thermal
Solar PV (ONLY SUBSIDY)
Power-pipetm
LED Lighting/switching
Energy Reductions
40 %
7.5 %
15%
7.5%
5%
75%TOTAL
5%of capital unlocks
75%Reduction
AT A PROFIT
Buildings – Low Hanging Fruit
Efficiency
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Economic CompetitivenessEn
erg
y /
$
Efficiency ($ / Energy)
Increasing Wealth
Japan, Germany
Canada
*
*
China
India
Developed
Developing
* US
Efficiency
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ReduceG7 energy use by half…
and have $500
billion left over.
Efficiency
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Energy production equal in cost to the Tar Sands… and …
Replace half US coal-based electrical production
.
Solar
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Replace 20% of US electrical production.
Wind
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Replace 2/3 of US coal power.
Hydro
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Develop global potential tidal power … equivalent to US electrical production.
Oceans
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www.kickthefossilfuelhabit.com
April 10, 202334
Continental – Grid-Balancing,
Reliability.
Local – Demand Response
Storage
Energy Internet
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SolarBiomass
Wind
Wind
HydroGeothermal Tidal
Wind
Wind, Tidal,Hydro
Biomass
Wind
Solar
Wind
Energy Internet
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Risk = Probability (High) * Consequences (Severe)
Create Global Opportunities
Lowering Risk: Smart Policy
Ensure Long-Term Growth
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Lowering Risk: Smart Policy
•Set target, no priceCap and Trade
•Set price, no targetCarbon Tax(& Dividend)
•Sector-specificRegulation
•Technology SpecificFeed-in Tariff
•Low-cost capitalGreen Bonds
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Lowering Risk: Smart Policy shapes markets
•Set target, no priceCap and Trade
•Set price, no targetCarbon Tax(& Dividend)
•Sector-specificRegulation
•Technology SpecificFeed-in Tariff
•Low-cost capitalGreen Bonds
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Policy:Green BondsShifting Financial Resources - Capital
Government backing
High RiskHigh Rates
Savings/Money Markets
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Policy:Tax & DividendShifting Financial Resources - Spending
Dividend
Tax
Spend
High CO2
Low CO2
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Worst case estimates :
It will take 1-3 years longer ….
Cost: High or Low?
To double global average income. By 2050.
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www.tomrand.net
Tom RandP.Eng., Ph.D.
Thank you
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Time
PowerPower
Release thisEnergy
Store thisenergy
Kick it: Minimal StoragePeak Shifting
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Difficulty: Hard Truths
www.kickthefossilfuelhabit.com
April 10, 202344
• Higher Costs• Job Dislocation
• Capital Assets• Psychology
• Lots of it• Debt Crisis
• Shape Markets• International
Co-operation
Skeptical Public
Corp Inertia
CapitalPolicy
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Technology/Scienc
e
Control
Environment
Creates Marke
tControl
Environment
Clean Technology
Shape/Create Marke
t
Lowering Risk: Smart Policy shapes markets
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Kick It:BioFuels
Enough salt-water irrigation and processing capacity to:
Replace half of the world’s oil supply.
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20,000 miles of high-speed track and trains, and enough transit to offset 7.5 billion car trips.
Kick It:TransportKick It:EfficiencyTransport
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Possibility:Clean Energy