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Recent ND Production
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 20080
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
221,400210,000
168,000
234,600
252,800
224,400234,000
246,400
40,290
58,410
76,635 81,075
131,040
154,800
272,600285,200
Wheat
Corn
Years
Pro
du
ctio
n
More Corn Per Acre
U.S. Corn Prices
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 20090
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
2.6
1.89 1.89
2.27
1.96
3.39
3.75
US Price
US Price
Years
US
Yea
rly
Ave
rag
e
Corn Market Prices
1946 - $1.53/bu
2000 - $1.85/bu
2010 - $3.83/bu
Source: USDA
Supply Side Economics ??
90 bushels / acre – mid 1990’s
132 bushels / acre – 2010
42 extra bushels across 2.5 million acres
105 million more bushels
Or Bonanza ??
105 million more bushels
$3.83 National Average Price (USDA)
$402 million more to economy
(before multiplier effects)
$2.47 Billion (2004-2008) CAPTS, NDSU
Land UseAmount of landto produce onebushel of corn
Soil LossSoil loss per
bushel, above atolerable level
Irrigation
Irrigation wateruse per bushel
EnergyEnergy used toproduce one
bushel
Climate
Emissions perbushel
Corn’s Impacts, 1987-2007
37% 69% 27% 37% 30%
Pesticide Use TrendsIncreasing adoption of hybrids with insect-resistant and
herbicide-tolerant traits have greatly reduced the need forsynthetic applications of herbicides and insecticides.
Insecticide Pounds Per Acre Herbicide Pounds Per Acre
Source: USDA
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
01990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2005
1990 1995 2000 2005
Actual
Corn Growers BecomeMore Efficient With Nitrogen
COMMERCIAL NITROGEN APPLIED PER BUSHEL OF CORN PRODUCED1980 - 2006 ACTUAL & TREND TO 2030Pounds per Bushel
1.80
1.60 Trend
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20202015 2025 2030
Source: Blue, Johnson & Associates, Inc.
Source: Blue, Johnson & Assoc. Inc.
North Dakota Yield Variability 28% 1975-1995
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1975 1979 1983 1986 1988 1992 1995
ND Avg Yield
North Dakota Yield Stability 15% 1997-2010
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2010
ND Avg Yield
Yield Enhancement Drought Tolerance
Blender Pumps
Distribution Problem – Grand Forks
40,000 / 3,000 FFV / NO ethanol pumps
Energy Independence “Brazilian Model”
Partnership of western oil fields and
eastern corn fields
4 to 20% Volume
Blender Pumps
Typical Price $25,000 per pump
Distributors Discount $9,000
State Grant $5,000
Corn Growers Grant $2,500
Tax Credits (Fed) $4,000 30% to 50%
$4,500
Blender PumpsBlender Pumps
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